Another European Season in the Books

With the Europa League final on Friday and Champions League final on Sunday, the longest European season in history is finally concluded.  Given how things looked back in March, we should be impressed at what they accomplished.  The EFL regular season was complete and unabridged.  The two club competitions did have to drop two-legged ties for single elimination in the late stages but otherwise were mostly uncompromised by the pandemic.  For the fan, it's meant non-stop action for almost two months.  The good news is we start all over again in less than three weeks.

Not that everything is peachy.  The Union put up another lackluster performance and the transfer news and early projections ain't so hot for Newcastle and Aston Villa.  We'll also take a look at a few changes to the English domestic cup competitions.


Champions League Snoozer

I blame the CBSSports pundits.  In the pre-game show, they outlined for us in detail why PSG might be able to exploit Bayern's defensive liabilities for a pile of goals.  Bayern themselves came in with 42 goals in their 10 matches so we had some hopes for a wide open contest.  Didn't happen.  PSG had some okay first half chances that Neuer had to deal with.  Second half was a little more Bayern.  The good news is that it wasn't a mistake or PK that led to the winning goal.  Check out the proper heading technique from Kingsley Coman on the game's only score, this week's   YouTubeableMoment.  Two things to note.  First, the mantra I learned was head down to score, head up to clear; you can see Coman's focus on making sure the ball goes down.  Second, always helpful to head it back in the opposite direction from whence it come; much harder to stop.

Certainly Bayern have earned this one.  Sure, Liverpool ran away with the Premier League title but Bayern were probably the best European club team.  They were hardly pressed in winning the Bundesliga, won their domestic cup and now have the Champions League title too, winning all 11 matches and outscoring opponents 43-8.


Europa League

The Premier League's last representative in European competition - Man United - looked good on paper and on the stat sheet but Sevilla had the 3-1 semi-final win.  The Red Devils already had a Champions League ticket (actually so did Sevilla) but I'm guessing they thought they had a good shot at this cup.  Speaking of devils, Harry Maguire went to Greece to drown his sorrows, allegedly spent £63,000 on lobster and booze, got into a brawl, and ended up getting arrested for assaulting a police officer. Will it enhance his reputation that reportedly five officers were needed to wrestle him to the ground?  Not excusing his behavior but the reports also say he was being taunted by fans of other clubs and his sister was cut with a knife.  BFS has obtained footage of the incident.

Wait, where was I? Right, Sevilla's win set up a very attractive final with Inter Milan and this one lived up to the billing.  This was very much a thrust and parry affair, with each team responding well to the other's tallies.  Lukaku's PK was answered quickly by a header from Luuk de Jong.  Diego Godin leveled things just two minutes after De Jong's second header goal had put Sevilla up 2-1.  Hold the phone.  Is that the same Luuk de Jong who appeared in 12 matches for Newcastle on loan back in 2014 with nary a goal or an assist?  Well, yes and no.  It's the same person but doesn't look like the same player. 

The quintessential thrill of victory/agony of defeat;
Sevilla's Carlos (#20) is thrilled, Lukaku agonizes
Photograph: Lars Baron/Getty Images

The sides couldn't really be expected to keep up that pace and they didn't.  Things got much tighter.  Unfortunately this one came down to an lucky/unlucky break.  Diego Carlos, playing with a heavily taped leg (not Kirk Gibson level but he was definitely hurting) did a bicycle kick that deflected off Lukaku for the game winner in the 74th minute.

So what do we make of this being Sevilla's sixth Europa League title, with three coming in the last six years? Are you a glass half full or half empty person?  Participation in this competition almost always means you didn't finish in the top four in your domestic league; it's definitely a consolation tournament.  So, winning many Europa titles might be on par with, say, the minor league home run record of the fictional Crash Davis.  Before Bob K goes apoplectic, we note that because the Champions League limits the number of clubs from each domestic league to allow broader participation across the continent, there are top quality teams in Europa League.  It's a grueling competition that generally requires Thursday evening games in exotic European venues, which also leads to many Sunday matches in your domestic league.  Plus, at BFS, we think hardware is hardware.


The Coming Season

Well this, while not surprising, is not encouraging.  As we argued last week, Newcastle are not a mid-table side and the projection of 17th doesn't seem silly to me.  Aston Villa miraculously stayed up but the prediction for 18th seems right too.

Fortunately, both are working hard in this transfer window.  Right.  Newcastle have added GK Mark Gillespie from the Scottish club Motherwell.  Hard to see this as meaningful as Martin Dubravka has been excellent in goal plus they have Karl Darlow and Freddie Woodman in reserve.  GenieScout, the data base I use in conjunction with Football Manager, doesn't project Gillespie, already 28, to be better than Woodman.   Newcastle have also added former Burnley mid-fielder Jeff Hendrick. He's not bad but he's also not an improvement over Sean Longstaff, Isaac Hayden, or Jonjo Shelvey.  At 28, there's not much upside potential.  So far, this is the proverbial rearrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic.

Things look a little brighter in Birmingham.  However, Dennis reminds us that this is the club that got Adama Traore for $11 million but let him go for $9 million a year later.  Two years after that, Wolves got him for $22 million and now see him worth well north of $50 million.  This made Dennis sad angry react like this.  Worse, there is still talk of Grealish going to Man United for £50 m plus keeper Sergio Romero; yeah that makes sense.  But there is better news.  They have a good shot at Celtic's Odsonne Edouard, who would be a massive improvement over Mbwana "What" Samatta at striker.  Also hear they might be interested in Chelsea's Conor Gallagher, who could bolster the midfield and at 20 has huge upside potential.

A full list of transfers in and out is available here.  Some of the more notable moves include Willian from Chelsea to Arsenal and Hojbjerg from Southampton to Spurs.  The window is open until October 5 so there's a long way to go.


Cup Changes

Because more has to be crammed into less time, there will be no replays for FA Cup matches.  Bad news for lower division clubs that sometimes eke out a draw with a Premier League side at home, then get a big payday with the replay at the bigger club's venue.  The Carabao Cup will scrap two-legged semi-finals for a single elimination match, for basically the same reason.  Early round matches will be held in consecutive weeks in September, presumably allowing for some continuity of interest but making for a crowded month.

EPL fixtures were announced.  Yep, you still play everybody twice, once at your place, once theirs.


Union Muddle Through

The good news is that the Union, despite the absence of any consistent form, still only have one loss.  The bad news is that they don't look very good.  The 0-0 draw with New England was ugly, truly a match worthy of the Gillette Stadium venue.  Neither side looked capable of scoring.  A bright spot for the U was that Matt "Get" Real subbed for the injured Kai Wagner and looked pretty good.  The team sits in 5th but it's so early, there's not much spread across the table.

They have five matches on the schedule - Red Bulls (home on 8/25), DC United (home on 8/29), Columbus (away on 9/2), Red Bulls (away on 9/6) and New England (home on 9/12).  Presumably, there will be more matches announced soon.


Gone Fishin'

Going to take a couple weeks off.

Smoke and Mirrors

So it's August, when a young man's fancy turns to the new EPL season or perhaps taking a hard look at his favorite MLS franchise's playoff hopes.  This year it's about cups contested in Cologne, Duisburg, Dusseldorf, Gelsenkirchen, Lisbon and Orlando (one of these is not like the others).   We'll see how Champions League, Europa League and MLS Is Back are doing (or did, yeah, I'm a little behind).  Plus, we take a closer look at Newcastle results that suggests the Mike Ashley needs to pry open his wallet for this transfer window or the Magpies are going to struggle next year.

Union Run Out of Luck

I thought the U were leading a charmed life in Orlando as they worked their way through the group stage and into the semi-finals.  That luck ended in a 1-2 loss to eventual tournament winner, the Portland Timbers.  An unmarked Ebobisse gave the Timbers the early lead.  Sergio Santos, after the softest of fouls in the box, skied his PK over the cross bar late in the first half.  Both Dennis and Jeff H say they saw that miss coming.  Blanco doubled the lead in the 70th minute and the Union looked dead in the water.  Andrew Wooten made the finish interesting after he cleaned-up Monteiro's saved free kick in the 85th minute but that was as close as they got.  In the end, the result seemed more than fair to me. 

A few days later, Portland slipped past upstart Orlando in the final 2-1.  Can't say I remember much from the match.  I recall thinking that Orlando did a good job here. They had more possession, shots were 14-13, expected goals were 3.3-2.2.  Part of the problem was they only managed one shot on target.

Jeff H will not recoup the cost of his new Subaru through
savings on parking at Union matches

In some ways hardware is hardware, no matter how artificial the competition so congrats to Portland.  Further, despite my reservations, this tournament ended up being reasonably fun to watch and the players certainly seemed more into than I would have expected. 

They now proceed with a regular season that is not fully laid out yet.  Games are set up through September 16.  I haven't checked all the schedules but for the Union it means six more matches.  Their season will resume on Thursday at Gillette Stadium (arguably second worst MLS venue behind only Yankee Stadium) against New England.  Though the matches will be played in the home parks, few venues will be allowing fans.  This is unfortunate since Jeff H recently purchased a Subaru with the expectation that it would mean free parking for Union home matches. 


The View from Europe

Just as everyone predicted, the Champions League semis will feature two sides from Germany and two from France.  Right.  This is first time since 1996 there are no English or Spanish teams in the semis and the first since 1991 with no English, Spanish or Italian teams.  How did this happen?

The Cinderella side of Atalanta seemed poised to steal a berth from PSG after Neymar missed at least three wide open opportunities.  The Italian side had clearly been outplayed and frankly did not distinguish itself in wracking up 29 fouls.  But there they were at 89 minutes with a 1-0 lead.  Unfortunately for them, a match is 90 minutes plus stoppage time.  Their downfall is chronicled here.  Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, subbed on in the 79th minute, plays a key role in Marquinhos' equalizer in the 90th minute and then scores the game winner at 93 minutes.

On Wednesday, Atletico Madrid might view themselves unlucky losing to RB Leipzig 1-2 on a deflected shot by American Tyler Adams in the 88th minute.  On the other hand, the Mattress Makers (no, that really is Atleti's nickname) didn't look to be at their best.

Thursday's match was - wait this must be a typo - Bayern 8 Barcelona 2? When the match began with the teams trading goals in the first 10 minutes, hopes were high for a classic between two high profile sides.  Then Bayern pushed through three more by the 31st minute.  Suarez got one back and at 4-2, maybe some hope of exciting finish.  Nope.  Bayern poured in four more as the match took on a practice session quality.  The German side was a clear favorite but not like this.  Discussions of a Barcelona make over dominated the late stages of commentary.

In the last quarterfinal, Man City entered as heavy favorites over Olympique Lyonnais and mostly outplayed them so of course they lost 1-3.  Some serious smash and grab counterattacking from the French meant that City's statistical advantages like 72/28 possession, 18/7 shots, 11/3 corners and 2.2/.7 expected goals didn't mean much.  A sad footnote for the match, it was the last appearance of David Silva in a City uniform and we probably won't see him in the EPL next year. 

So the semis are set with RB Leipzig - PSG on Tuesday and Lyon - Bayern on Wednesday.  PSG are prohibitive favorites and Lyon are heavy underdogs to Bayern.  Both matches are on CBS All Access (you can sign up and get a free month).  You can also see them on CBSSports (Verizon channel 594 in Philly) but on same-day delay. 

Meanwhile, over in the NIT Europa League, Man United were barely able to slip past Copenhagen thanks to an extra time PK from Fernandes.  Wolves were not so lucky against Sevilla, never really getting untracked and falling 0-1.  The Europa semis are Man United - Sevilla (Sunday) and Inter Milan - Shakhtar Donetsk on Monday.  Same viewing deal as Champions League.


Warning: Statistical Wonkery Ahead

I cannot remember a season with more improbable results for Newcastle.  How about the match with Everton when Florian LeJeune of all people scored two in stoppage time to snatch a 2-2 draw?  Or the time Tottenham ran Newcastle ragged and came away with a 0-1 loss?  There are some hard luck results too but nowhere near as many, at least based on my recollection.  Support for that view comes from 538, which had Newcastle ranked 19th, ahead only of Norwich.  So what gives?  Were the Magpies lucky?  Was there more than meets the eye?

I dissected the season using a couple of tools - expected goals data available at 538 (on downloadable Excel spreadsheet no less!) and a formula I developed to estimate how many points a team should earn based on their goals scored and allowed (call it ETP for now).  With the expected goals data, we can see whether Newcastle scored or gave up more or less than they should have based on the types of shots taken and non-shooting actions (methodology is explained here).  Of course we can debate whether differences between actual and expected reflect luck (good or bad) or some inherent trait in the team.   With the point formula, we can get a sense of whether a team the benefited or was hurt by the distribution of the goals across the games.  To see how that matters, say a team scored two and allowed two over three games.  They could come away with three, four or six points from those three games depending on how the goals were distributed.  Again, we can debate how much of that is luck or "clutch" performance. 

On the expected goals front, Newcastle scored four more than expected and allowed 10 less than expected.  If I do a game-by-game retally based on expected goals (calling matches with less than a .3 difference a draw), I get Newcastle with just 16 points.  That's the biggest difference in the league.  All teams results are presented below.

	Expected	Actual	Difference
Manchester City	99	81	-18
Liverpool	97	99	2
Chelsea	92	66	-26
Leicester City	75	62	-13
Manchester United	72	66	-6
Wolverhampton	63	59	-4
Southampton	59	52	-7
Everton	56	49	-7
Watford	56	34	-22
Arsenal	50	56	6
Tottenham Hotspur	45	59	14
Brighton and Hove Albion	44	41	-3
Burnley	44	54	10
Sheffield United	44	54	10
Crystal Palace	33	43	10
West Ham United	30	39	9
Aston Villa	28	35	7
AFC Bournemouth	27	34	7
Norwich City	21	21	0
Newcastle	16	44	28

But it looks like the distribution of expected goals was unlucky.  A team that scores 34 and allows 68 should get about 27 points.  Even allowing for that though, Newcastle would still have finished dead last. 

So what about the differences between expected and actual?  There has been talk about how good Dubravka is - maybe that's part of it.  Turns out that is entirely possible.  In the 18/19 season Newcastle allowed 12 fewer goals than expected.  In the 17/18 season they yielded five fewer than expected in the 12 matches he was between the sticks.  In the other 26 matches that season, they were seven better.  So this looks to be a consistent thing with Newcastle that Dubravka has accentuated.

On the offensive side, there is no consistency.  In 17/18 they scored five less than expected, in 18/19 they were one goal better.  So I started to play around with using expected scored but actual allowed.  That would mean 34 scored and 58 allowed.  With ETP, that says they should end up with about 31 points.  But if I go through game by game and retally using expected scored and actual allowed, I get 46 points.  In short, it wasn't only that they were yielding fewer goals than it expected, it was also when they didn't allow those goals. 

I'm concluding that about half of the difference in the point total looks to be related to a defense that consistently outperforms expectations but the other half was a lucky distribution of goals allowed.  That would say that 30 points is about right.  For a smell test I went through match-by-match and based on my sense of the game, what was a realistic outcome.  I got 31 points.  There are just too many matches like the 1-0 wins over Man United and Chelsea in which the opposition played well enough to have earned at least a draw.  My conclusion is that this is a not a mid-table squad and absent some serious upgrades, next year will be another slog to avoid relegation.

Ironically, the only signing to date is Mark Gillespie, a goalkeeper.  But we have heard about interest in Bournemouth's Callum Wilson and Joshua King.  That might help.  I wouldn't have minded getting Adam Lallana but Brighton already snatched him up.

Two notes on the table above.  Check out Chelsea's "underperformance" by 26 points.  That is largely driven by allowing 15 more goals than expected.  It is possible that Chelsea's save percentage of 54.8% (the lowest in the league by almost 10%) had something to do with that.  The correlation between the difference of expected to actual goals allowed and save percentage is 86%, as in save percentage explains 86% of the variation in the difference.  Certainly Kepa has his critics, though some wonder about the defense in front of him.

And then there is demoted Watford, a massive 22 points worse than projected.  They scored 15 fewer than expected, the largest by far but also yielded almost eight more than expected.  Haven't gone through their season in detail so I haven't sorted out how much might be simply bad luck.  But this is a side that had done well in their first two seasons back up in the EPL.

Okay, enough of the wonkery...though I do hope to continue going over this data for insights into how the game works.  I blame 538 for making the data so accessible.

Go enjoy some of the August NHL action.
 

Young Americans

Musical Accompaniment courtesy David Bowie

Rising American soccer talent was on display this week on both sides of the Atlantic.  We present two examples here - both from the "greater" Philadelphia area.

U Look Mahvelous

Medford's Brenden Aaronson was in the middle of Philly's three-goal, 15 minute outburst that carried them past Sporting Kansas City 3-1 and into the MLS Is Back semi-finals.  Check out the shoulder dip after receiving the pass from Bedoya that allows him to beat two defenders before he sends an incredible pass into the box for Sergio Santos to deposit into the goal - an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.

This was not your father's Union.  The goals came quickly and easily.  By the 39th minute, they were up 3-0.  Things weren't as awesome after that point but how could they be?  They surrendered a goal in first half stoppage time and SKC definitely had the run of play in the second half.  But that's the advantage of creating and converting opportunities early and often.  The victory seemed deserved to me.

Santos had two goals, including a more-than-half-field breakaway.  Blake had another six saves.  Also, Jose' Martinez got his requisite yellow at 25 minutes; I think the over/under was 31 minutes.  Martinez is the prime beneficiary of this tournament's no suspension for accumulation of yellow cards policy.  He's picked up three cards in four appearances at 34, 27 and 25 minutes.  I guess it's saying something that he's played that many minutes on a yellow card without picking up a second one.


Record 14th FA Cup for Arsenal

FA Cup still means something, at least to these guys

An ocean away, Hershey's Christian Pusilic got Chelsea off to a promising start with this superb effort.  See how his first touch drags the ball into space and he deftly lifts the shot in the opposite direction.   Yeah, Giroud's flick pass was pretty cool too.  Unfortunately, for Chelsea, things went downhill from there.  Aztecupilate Apsequilta Dave got whistled for a foul in the box and Oboomerang Obamayeng Aubameyang converted the PK.  Not 10 minutes later, Dave is hobbling off with a thigh injury.  Two minutes into the second half, Pulisic joins him on the bench with a hamstring injury.  Certainly Christiansen and Pedro are more than adequate replacements but this is not the team Lampard wanted out there.

Yet Chelsea arguably still have the run of play.  Except it is Arsenal who take the lead at 67 minutes, with Aubameyang again the goal scorer.  Hope for a rousing finish was muted when Kovacic picked up his second yellow at 73 minutes.  Soft yellow maybe.  Chelsea's day is perhaps best symbolized by the injured Pedro being stretchered off after seriously hurting his elbow with a minute to go.

This is not meant to cheapen Arsenal's historic win.  They clearly played better in the second half of the season and maybe Arteta has them moving in the right direction.  Arsenal fans will probably relish the fact that the win consigns Tottenham to the qualifying stage of the Europa Cup.  For Spurs, this means some September and October matches in Faroe Islands, Greece or maybe Kazakhstan.  Frequent flyer miles, baby.


Ashley to Retain Ownership of Newcastle for the Present

With mixed emotions I report that the proposed sale of Newcastle to a Saudi-backed consortium has fallen through.  The official reason given:

“Unfortunately the prolonged process under the current circumstances coupled with global uncertainty has rendered the potential investment no longer commercially viable.”

On the surface that makes some sense but one wonders if there is more to it.  Details can be had here.

This is mostly a disappointing development.  After years of relegation-challenged seasons, there was hope that a well-heeled ownership group would lift Newcastle to top half of the table and maybe some top six challenges.  Worse, my preliminary dive into Newcastle's season suggests that they seriously overachieved in 2019/20 and are nowhere near as good as they appeared.  Under Ashley's ownership, we can expect a tepid transfer window with minimal upgrades and another season in the bottom quartile.

The only positive I take away is that Newcastle will not be owned by a government with a less than savory recent history.  I was already getting tired of defending the ownership with "well, there are alleged human rights violations but nothing has been proven yet" or "show me a country without some skeletons in the closet."


The Most Lucrative Match in Football

Wanna see what a £150 million goal looks like?  Watch here as Joe Bryan, in extra time, puts in a free kick from about 40 yards out to give Fulham a 1-0 lead over Brentford in the Championship division promotion final.  This was a tense match with neither side distinguishing itself as finishers.  Bryan added a second goal before Brentford got one back in the closing seconds for the 2-1.  The promotion final earns the winner a final spot in next season's Premier League, with all the TV and other revenue, making it worth about £150 million to the winning team.

Memorable commentary from the announcers.  When Anthony Knockaert returned to the lockerroom prior to be subbed in, at first they expressed disbelief that a professional wasn't fully prepared to enter the match.  Quickly though they suggested that maybe he had to take a "nervous wee."  With the prospect of £150 million PKs looming, this might be understandable.  He was then left waiting on the sidelines forever waiting for a break in play prompting the comment, "he was standing there like he was waiting for a night bus."  And with the score still 1-0 and Brentford pressing like crazy, a moment of chaos was like someone "threw a cat among the pigeons."  Great visuals.


Keep It Coming

Action continues on three fronts.

Europa League competition resumes Wednesday and Thursday to complete the Round of 16.  Wednesday, Man United take on LASK at Old Trafford holding a 5-0 lead after the first leg so they look like a good bet for the quarterfinals.  Wolves have work to do on Thursday as they are 1-1 with Olympiacos; at least it's a home match for them.  The quarter finals will be 8/10-11, the semis 8/16-17 and the final 8/21.  I had thought maybe you could see these on TNT or B/R Live but not seeing them on the schedule.

The Union are featured in Wednesday's MLS Is Back semi-final against Portland at 8 pm on FS1.  I am surprised to see that 538 has them favored over Portland (57-43).  Many things have been going right for the Union in this tournament but this seems like a long shot.  Orlando - Minnesota is the other semi, Thursday at 8 pm on ESPN2.  The final is Tuesday night at 8:30 on ESPN.

Champions League matches also resume this weekend.  Friday has Juventus - Lyon (0-1 after the first leg) and Man City - Real Madrid (2-1).  Saturday is Bayern - Chelsea (3-0) and Barcelona - Napoli (1-1).  All matches are at 3 pm.  All four can be seen on CBSSports (594 for Philadelphia FIOS customers).  The catch is that only the Man City and Barcelona matches will be live.  Juventus-Lyon is replayed at 7:30 pm Friday and Bayern - Chelsea can be seen at 12 am Sunday morning.

A decent list of fixtures that makes the delayed start of the 2020/21 EPL tolerable.

The Great Escape

Musical Accompaniment for this post

That was a nerve wracking two hours on Sunday.  But things turned out pretty well for the clubs near and dear to BFS and its loyal readers.  Most especially Aston Villa.


One Kick Away from Disaster

Aston Villa did indeed pull off the Great Escape, managing a 1-1 draw with West Ham while Watford lost 2-3 to Arsenal.  The draw fortunately made Bournemouth's 3-1 win over Everton irrelevant.  And, at no point during the proceedings did Villa drop into the bottom three in the live table.  But their situation was so precarious, that for most of the two hours, merely surrendering a goal to West Ham would have seen them in the relegation zone.  Here's the timeline with Villa's cushion:

11:00 - No cushion as all three matches were tied
11:05 - One goal cushion as Watford are 0-1 to Arsenal but Bournemouth level with Everton
11:13 - The cushion is gone as Bournemouth take a 1-0 lead on Everton
11:41 - A three goal cushion as Everton level with Bournemouth and Watford are down 1-3
11:46 - Back to zero as Bournemouth score in stoppage time to lead 2-1 at halftime
12:43 - A one goal cushion as Jack Grealish puts Villa up 1-0
12:44 - Back to zero when Yarmolenko scores for West Ham to make the score 1-1
12:54 - Final whistle and Aston Villa survive

Back for another year in the Premier League

By my count that's about 14 minutes over the course of the two hours during which Villa were not hanging on by a thread.  And even at the final whistle, did you notice that Villa manager Dean Smith told his charges not to celebrate?  See there was still stoppage time at the Emirates and though Watford were down 2-3, two late goals from the Hornets and a win over Arsenal would have snatched the last safe spot.  Stranger things have happened this season, right?  But they didn't and the celebration began in earnest.

Grealish's goal is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Maybe a bit of a mistake from Fabianski but Grealish did nice work to create the opening and the shot.  Yarmolenko's goal, barely a minute after, was an unlucky deflection that meant we'd have to spend the rest of the match on the edge of our seats.  Dennis points out that the percentage chance for Aston Villa relegation since the restart went as follows: 71,73,74,75,77,86,38,0.

And we must return to the first match of the restart, the one in which goal-line technology failed to note that Sheffield United had indeed put the ball past the goal line against Aston Villa.  We wondered at the time if the 0-0 draw instead of an 0-1 loss would have any consequences.  It did.  Villa edged Bournemouth by a single point in the standings; take away that point and Bournemouth finish 17th on goal differential.  There is some noise that the Bournemouth board is considering legal action.  We note the following from the IFAB Laws of the Game (item 4. in the section entitled Video Assistant Referee protocol):

Match validity

In principle, a match is not invalidated because of:

• malfunction(s) of the VAR technology (as for goal line technology (GLT))
• wrong decision(s) involving the VAR (as the VAR is a match official)
• decision(s) not to review an incident
• review(s) of a non-reviewable situation/decision

Seems unlikely.


Champions League Spots Go To Man United and Chelsea

The beginning of the end for Leicester's CL hopes

Like the relegation scrap, the ultimate fortunes of the Champions League contenders hung in the balance for much of the time too.  Sort of.  Chelsea needed most of the first half to secure their berth.  A free kick by Mason Mount in the first minute of stoppage time followed by this amazing goal from Olivier Giroud two minutes later sent Chelsea on their way.  Things were a little tighter at King Power as Leicester and Man United went into the 71st minute level at 0-0.  While that result would have been enough to send the Red Devils into the Champions League, I'm guessing Jeff H and other United fans breathed a sigh of relief as Anthony Martial was brought down in the box and Bruno Fernandes converted the PK.  A second stoppage time goal made the final 2-0.

That Man United and Chelsea join Liverpool and Man City as the EPL Champions League representatives is hardly a surprise.  But it was great theater for us neutrals to watch it play out.


Thursdays in Baku

With Wolves in trouble at Chelsea, all Tottenham needed was a draw at Crystal Palace to grab 6th place and a spot in the Europa League.  Harry Kane got Spurs off to good start with a goal in the 13th minute; Palace leveled things early in the second half.  Another goal from the Eagles would have knocked Spurs down to 7th but Tottenham held on for the draw and the berth.  As we've noted, it is a mixed blessing.  Participation in Europa League means Thursday evening matches in exotic places on the continent like Baku, Azerbaijan as well a lot of Sunday EPL matches, guaranteed to tax a squad over the course of a long season.  Still, we suspect that ultimately Michael B and Spurs fans prefer the 6th place finish to, say, coming in behind Arsenal.

Note that Wolves still have two possible routes to European competition.  They could still win this year's edition of Europa League which would get them a Champions League spot.  Or, Chelsea could win the FA Cup, which would then make 7th place good enough for next year's Europa competition.


A Footnote on Newcastle

They lost 1-3 to Liverpool.  Didn't see it but the stats seem to support a result in that range.  This wasn't a crucial match in any respect as most of the records Liverpool had been chasing were out of reach and Newcastle were going to finish 13th or 14th anyway (Palace draw meant it was 13th). 

Now comes the important stuff.  Is the takeover going to happen?  What personnel changes will we see if it does happen?  If it doesn't happen?  We will be unpacking the season in more detail in a few weeks but I suspect that, under the microscope, it won't look as good as it appeared.  I sense there was a lot of luck involved here and if so, we need some serious upgrading or 2020/21 will be another season spent fighting relegation.


In Praise of the EPL

In a time of 60-game MLB seasons, rejiggered NBA and NHL competition and who knows what from the NFL, we take a minute to laud the efforts of the EPL to offer an unabridged season offering excitement down to the final whistle.  It wasn't a gimmicky alternative and I think it showed in the intensity of the players' efforts.  Ya done good.


Union Continue with Smoke and Mirrors

Honestly, if 538 metrics are to be believed, the Union should have been out of the MLS Is Back Tournament long ago.  Yet once again on Monday night, there they were grabbing a 1-0 win from the New England Revolution.  Most of the regular stats are pretty close but expected goals say the Union might have stolen this one.  Certainly it seemed New England were the more attacking side in the second half.  And then Sergio Santos, who had missed easier chances earlier in the evening, scored on this difficult shot, against the run-of-play.  The win moves them into the quarterfinals against Sporting KC.


There Is Still Stuff to Watch

Though we will miss the daily EPL action, you can find plenty to keep you occupied.  Sure it's an artificial competition but the MLS Is Back Tournament offers quarterfinal matches from Thursday to Saturday.  The Union are first on that list, facing Sporting KC Thursday night at 8 pm on ESPN.  Friday has Orlando vs LAFC at 7:30 on FS1.  There are two on Saturday - San Jose - Minnesota at 8 pm on ESPN2  and NYCFC vs Portland at 10:30 on FS1.  Sem-finals are Wednesday (FS1) and Thursday (ESPN2) evenings at 8 pm.  Final is Tuesday 8/11.

Though you need to stream it, Saturday is the FA Cup Final featuring Chelsea and Arsenal.  Match is at 12:30 but is only available on ESPN+.  Chelsea are arguably the better side but Arsenal might have more to play for. 

And Champions League action is coming back soon.   The round of 16 matches wrap up on 8/7-8.  Single elimination (as opposed to two-legged) quarterfinals are offered up, one a day, 8/12-15.  Semis are 8/18 and the final is 8/23.

Plenty to check out, unless you're too busy watching baseball.

We Got Your Championship Sunday Scenarios Right Here

Another week of unexpected, no, improbable, no, miraculous results has set the stage for an exciting Championship Sunday.  By my count, six of the ten fixtures have implications for Champions League, Europa League and relegation.  The bad news of course, is that all the matches are played simultaneously at 11 am on Sunday.  This makes viewing somewhat tricky.  Hopefully, we can help sort out the best viewing for you based on your priorities.  We'll start at the bottom.


Aston Villa No Longer Need Syzygy to Survive

syzygy

[ siz-i-jee ]

noun, plural syz·y·gies.

Astronomy. an alignment of three celestial objects, as the sun, the earth, and either the moon or a planet:

Not to be confused with Szczesny, who used to play keeper for Arsenal.

Trezeguet's goal lifted Aston Villa out of the drop zone

This was as close to a perfect week of results for Aston Villa as you could get. On Friday, West Ham took care of Watford 3-1.  On Sunday, Southampton slipped past Bournemouth 2-0.  Tuesday was a dream come true as first Man City pounded Watford 4-0, erasing the Hornets' goal differential advantage in one fell swoop.  Then, Aston Villa stunned Arsenal 1-0, snatching three points that were never seriously in the mix.  Dennis's reaction is captured here.  The combination of results lifted Villa out of the relegation zone and opened up multiple scenarios that might allow them to stay up; the biggest difference is that there are situations in which they can stay up with a draw or even a loss at West Ham.  

On Sunday, Aston Villa are at West Ham, Watford are at Arsenal and Bournemouth travel to Everton.  All the scenarios are presented below:

Aston Villa	Watford	Bournemouth	Survivor
W	W/D/L	W/D/L	AVL, unless WAT win by at least 2 more goals than AVL
D	D/L	W/D/L	Villa
D	W	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	W	Bournemouth
L	W/D	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	L	AVL, unless AVL lose by at least 2 more goals than WAT

At 538, the associated percentages for staying up are Aston Villa 62%, Watford 34% and Bournemouth 5%.  The weird thing is you can't even say Villa control their destiny because even a win might not be enough if Watford beat Arsenal by two more goals than Villa beat West Ham.  It's also not quite as simple as saying just do better than whatever Watford does because that leaves a chance for Bournemouth to sneak in. So all three matches could matter.

Uh, Here, You Take It

Ol' Gunner says Pogba should have taken it in the "mush"
but it's not clear that's where the ball would have hit him

For the second time this month, all the principals in the chase for Champions League berths dropped points at a critical moment.  Not a complete surprise that Tottenham bested Leicester 3-0, except maybe for the ease with which Spurs dispatched the Foxes.  Chelsea faced long odds playing at Anfield on the day that Liverpool would be celebrating their EPL title so the 3-5 loss wasn't out of the blue, so to speak. A fun match to watch (see below).  But we might have expected more from Man United at home to West Ham.  They fell behind on a late first half PK, which occurred when Paul Pogba was apparently unwilling to sacrifice his face for the cause.  Watching the play here (should open at 5:48), you can understand that hands in front of the face might be a natural reaction.  Still, he is getting no slack from anyone. And further examination of the picture does show the ball was likely going to hit the top of his head, not his face.

When the dust settled, that draw was enough to move Man United to third place based on goal differential.  Leicester are leaking oil badly and Chelsea are sitting pretty because Man United play Leicester on the final day, meaning somebody's dropping points.  Chelsea do have a tough opponent in Wolves but at least will be playing at home.  Here are the Champions League scenarios:

Man United	Chelsea	CL Berths
W	W/D/L	MUN and CHE
D	W/D	MUN and CHE
D	L	MUN and Leicester
L	L	MUN and Leicester
L	W/D	Chelsea and Leicester

At 538, the odds shake out as Chelsea 89%, Man United 76% and Leicester 35%.  Or if you prefer, Chelsea/Man United 65%, Man United/Leicester 11% and Chelsea/Leicester 24%.  Because of the Leicester Man United fixture, each team does in fact control their destiny.  Win and you are in.


Miss Congeniality

Otherwise known as Europa League.  At the moment only 5th and 6th are guaranteed spots; 7th place will only be good enough if Chelsea win the FA Cup.  Fortunately, 6th and 7th can go to only two clubs - Wolves or Spurs.  Wolves have Chelsea at Stamford Bridge so that's not easy.  Tottenham play Crystal Palace away, which is slightly better odds.  But Spurs trail by a point.  Here are the scenarios:

Spurs	Wolves	6th Place
W/D/L	W	Wolves
L	D/L	Wolves
W	D/L	Spurs
D	D	Wolves
D	L	Spurs

Add 'em up and 538 says 53% chance for Wolves, 47% chance for Spurs.  Wolves do control their fate; win and 6th is theirs.


CPFC

Those initials usually stand for Crystal Palace Football Club. We respectfully request they now stand for Christian Pulisic Fan Club.  The American entered the match with Liverpool in the 59th minute with Chelsea down 1-4.  Within 14 minutes the score was 3-4 as Pulisic had contributed an assist and goal, both of the highest quality.  We make it a combo YouTubeableMoment (scroll down for videos of the assist and the goal).  On the assist, check out Pulisic's willingness to go right at the Liverpool defenders; BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S has pointed this out to me as something we haven't seen a lot of from American players.  For the goal, check out his composure as he settles, takes a couple of calm touches and blisters the shot.  Number 22 in your program but a #10 in your heart?


We Watch So You Don't Have To

Newcastle drew 0-0 with Brighton.  Nothing happened.


Wid or Wid Out?

The discussion continues on enhanced or natural sound when watching EPL or other matches.  BFS Culinary Consultant Laura O sends us the following links on the subject:

This one is more about the actual process but does discuss the debate

This one is mostly about the debate

I continue to take the lazy route.  If I have to do something extra to get natural sound, it's not happening.  If it's an easy choice at the start, which only happens while watching on NBC Gold, I'm probably 50/50.


Once A Keeper

Goalie Emeritus Don P (he was the keeper at Dickinson College for their first ever soccer team or so the legend goes - thus far we have only verified the parts of that statement that appear in bold) sends along this podcast about the loneliness and other psychological pressures on keepers as described by Arsenal legend Bob Wilson.  The toughness it breeds may explain why Don was 10-time Defensive Player of the Year in Monday Night Basketball (again, we can verify the bolded part of that statement).


Union Finish Second

A 1-1 draw with Orlando means the Union take second in Group A.  A dvr mishap (probably related to the related to me setting the recording on ESPN while it still thought boxing was scheduled) meant I did not see the match.  Heard there were some good scoring opportunities and some more great work by Andre Blake.  They might not have advanced out of group stage without his heroics.  Their Round of 16 knock out opponent is New England.  That's Saturday night at 10:30 on ESPN2.  Hopefully I can correctly set the dvr this time.


Soccer on Golf Channel

As we noted at the beginning, every match this Sunday starts at 11.  NBC used to call on every affiliated station to ensure live telecasts of every match.  This year they are "cheating" by using Peacock (and NBC Gold) to achieve blanket coverage.  Fortunately, five of the six key contests are on TV so fair play to the schedulers there.

For those following the Champions League drama, you have two to take in:
 - Leicester vs Man United on NBC
 - Chelsea vs Wolves on USA

For the Miss Congeniality Europa League fans you also have two to follow:
- Chelsea vs Wolves on USA
- Crystal Palace vs Spurs on Peacock or NBC Gold

The relegation crowd (which includes me and Dennis) will somehow try to follow three:
- West Ham vs Aston Villa on NBCSN
- Arsenal vs Watford on Golf Channel (not a typo)
- Everton vs Bournemouth on CNBC

In theory, you could try to watch on NBC Gold with the scores turned off and take in each match separately.  My sense though is that it will be impossible for spoiler alerts not to creep in.  Dennis and I have already figured out how we'll jointly watch at least Aston Villa and Watford simultaneously.

If you can only take in one and your rooting interests are neutral, my recommendation would be the Leicester - Man United contest.  But don't underestimate how compelling it can be to watch a team threatened with relegation try to survive.

I'm gonna miss this when it's over.

Normalcy?

Some semblance of order was restored in Week 36.

The three main contenders for the two open Champions League spots took care of business, though not necessarily convincingly.  Chelsea dominated but still barely slipped past Norwich 1-0 on a sublime cross from Pulisic to Giroud.  Because we shamelessly promote the best American footballer right now, the play is this week's
 YouTubeableMoment.  Leicester looked better than in recent weeks and took the measure of Sheffield United 2-0.

Wear a smaller shoe next time

And Man United eventually finished off Crystal Palace 2-0 but not before some second half dramatics.  Rashford gave the Red Devils a 1-0 with a first half stoppage time goal but Jordan Ayew had appeared to level things early in the second half before it was overturned by VAR for offside.  I'm not saying it was a close call or anything but if Ayew had been wearing a size 8 boot instead of size 9, I think he's onside.  So no change in the order of things, except Chelsea lose one on goal differential; they're so far behind Leicester and Man United on that score I doubt it matters.  Plus they have one point in the table on both of those teams so they still control their destiny.  These results also closed the door on Champions League hopes for anybody else.


Mid-table Anonymity

Forget which announcer used that phrase but it's definitely a factor in these matches during the run-in.  Just how motivated are sides that are safe from relegation but with no chance of Champions League or Europa League?  Actually, they mostly acquitted themselves well.  Newcastle lost to Tottenham 1-3 but at least this was a 90-minute effort from the Magpies.  Mixed feelings for Spurs as despite the three points, results elsewhere mean they can finish no higher than 6th, as in no Champions League for you.

Burnley - Wolves proved to be just as hard-fought as expected.  Jiminez had appeared to give the Wolves a lifeline with an incredible strike in the 76th minute.  But shortly after Chris Wood missed an easy chance to level, Doherty was called for handling in the box (marginal call IMHO) and Wood converted the PK to sink Wolves CL hopes. 

Slumped shoulders from Grealish say it all after Walcott
levelled the match late

Everton putzed around for most of their match with Aston Villa, but then so did Aston Villa.  Neither team registered a shot on goal through 72 minutes.  Then Villa's Ngoyo barely got his extended leg on a cross into the box to put them up 1-0.  Unfortunately, this was enough to rouse Everton from their deck chairs and they looked mildly interested from then on.  Theo Walcott managed a looping header over Reina that barely made it across the line in the 87th minute to deny Aston Villa all three points.  The draw leaves some hope but three points would have made the road a little easier.

Arsenal, despite being outstatted by Liverpool, managed to keep their Europa League chances alive with an improbable 2-1 win over the champions-elect.  By outstatted I mean 24-3 on shots, 8-2 for shots on target, 69-31 on possession and 3-1 on expected goals.  The loss means Liverpool will not break 100 points for the season.


Scenarios

At the bottom, Aston Villa survival scenarios are getting convoluted.  There is a way they could stay up with just a win over West Ham on the final day of the season.  For that to happen, Watford must 1) lose all three remaining matches (West Ham, Man City, and Arsenal) and 2) must lose by at least a combined -5 goals while 3) Villa must beat West Ham by more than they lose to Arsenal.  Two of those things are not out of the question.  Stealing a point from Arsenal would take the goal differential issues out, simplifying the table to 1) Watford lose all three and 2) Aston Villa beat West Ham.  Oh, and Bournemouth can't be mucking things up by getting points against Southampton and Everton (see Mid-table Anonymity above).

At the top, Chelsea are in with two wins, except they play Liverpool and Wolves.  On balance, that sounds like a loss and win or maybe a draw and a win for 66 or 67 points.  Man United play West Ham and Leicester; two wins or maybe a win and a draw for 68 or 66 points.  Leicester play Spurs then Man United; a draw and a loss or maybe two draws for  63 or 64 points.  Right now, Leicester look like odd man out.

Based on what I'm reading, the Champions League will not reach down to 5th place should a top four finisher win this year's Champions League or Europa League.  That is, should Man City or Chelsea, win this year's CL, it doesn't help anybody who finished 5th or lower.  Chelsea are pretty much toast anyway, down 0-3 to Bayern heading to Germany for the second leg of that Round of 16 match up.  City are up 2-1 coming home to the Etihad against Real Madrid so they might make it.  In Europa League action, both Man United and Wolves have legitimate hopes of reaching the quarters or beyond.  But if Man United were to finish say, 4th in EPL, and win the Europa League, as I read the rules, that does not mean 5th place now gets a Champions League spot.  Clear as mud right?

Europa League rules say 5th place, the EFL Cup winner and the FA Cup winner get slots for EPL teams.  Unlike Champions League, they do reach down to lower positions in the table if either Cup winner is in the top five.  Man City have already won the EFL Cup, so 6th place will be good enough this year.  Should a team other than Arsenal win the FA Cup, that would open up 7th place.  But that's the extent of how far down they'll reach.  Say Man United win this year's Europa League and qualify for next year's Champions League; they won't reach down to 8th place for another Europa League team.  The only way you can finish lower than 7th and get a Europa League berth is to win the EFL or FA Cups. 

There'll be a test on this next week.


Union Advance

Not that I was able to watch it, not having access to TUHD.  I only saw the highlights of the 2-1 win over Miami, a victory that moves them on to the knockout rounds in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  The stats say the Union may have stolen this one.  Shots differential wasn't too bad but possession was 55-45 and expected goals was 1.3-.6.  Also, VAR overturned a handling call against the Union and there was a shot that rattled off the cross bar.

On the other hand, there was a great strike from Wagner for the first goal and a wonderful piece of counterattacking for the second from Cats-purr shuh-BILL-koh.  Watch that goal here.  Can I draw your attention to the wonderful work of Monteiro, who didn't touch the ball at all in this sequence but was a critical factor in its creation. 


FA Cup Weekend

With the FA Cup semis this weekend, match Week 37 is spread out from Saturday to Wednesday.  There are several that you may want to skip.  I would not however pass on Spurs - Leicester Sunday at 11 am on NBCSN.  Earlier, 538 had this as much closer but now they see the Foxes as favorites; I'm still thinking draw here.  At Relegation Central, we'll probably check in on Bournemouth - Southampton at 9 am Sunday just to make sure the Cherries don't get more than a point.

Wolves - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3:15 could be a fun watch.  Relegation Central will be focused in on Tuesday to watch Man City hopefully ruin Watford's goal differential at 1 pm and then hopefully see Aston Villa nick a point from Arsenal at 3:15. 

Wednesday has two important matches with Champions League implications.  Man United host West Ham at 1 and Chelsea are at Liverpool at 3:15.  At 538 they see easy win for Man United but Chelsea are the decided underdogs in their contest.

With respect to the FA Cup, you are SOL (short on luck) for viewing unless you have ESPN+.  Saturday is Arsenal - Man City at 2:45 and Sunday has Man United - Chelsea at 1 pm.  Both matches are at Wembley. 

And if you're not doing anything at 8 pm on Monday, you can see the Union - Orlando play to see who wins Group A in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  If you care.  This one is on TSN so at least I can see it.   Actually, Dennis has seen a few of the other matches and says the quality has been pretty good, if sweaty. 

And by next Sunday, the EPL will be done.  Fortunately, we will have some Champions League stuff to make August bearable.

Next Stop, the Twilight Zone

A strange few days on and off the pitch. Fasten your seat belts as the EPL enters stoppage time...in the Twilight zone.

Guardiola reacts to the Court of Arbitration for Sport
decision (dramatization)

Perhaps the biggest EPL result of the week came out of Lausanne, which if you check the maps is not in England but Switzerland. This is the headquarters for the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which decided that UEFA's two-year Champions League ban of Man City was not justified by the evidence.  The Court did conclude that City's cooperation was less than ideal and fined them £10 million for that.  Chicken feed compared to a CL ban. The decision unsettles the tranquility that had been developing in the chase for those CL slots.  Where once Chelsea, Man United and Leicester had looked like locks, Man City's reentrance means that only two of those three can make it.

And all three made hash of their weekend, just as this blogger predicted.  Right.  I believe the exact words were:

Chelsea (at Sheffield Saturday 12:30 NBC), Leicester (at Bournemouth Sunday 2 pm NBCSN) and Man United (hosting Southampton Monday 3 pm) are good bets to take all three points in their matches. 

Even the blind squirrel can be nutty sometimes.

Chelsea started things off Saturday with an 0-3 loss to Sheffield.  Not totally out of left field but based on recent form, a highly unlikely result.  Even down 0-2 you had some sense the Blues might pull out at least a draw until McGoldrick's second at 77 minutes put that idea to rest.

On Sunday things got really goofy.  Bournemouth, who hadn't won a match since February 1, dutifully fell behind Leicester on a Jamie Vardy goal and though the Foxes didn't look spectacular, you felt there was no way back into the match for the Cherries.  In the 66th minute, Wilfred Ndidi (Who did?  Indeed he did.) tripped Callum Wilson in the box and Stanislaus converted the PK.  Barely a minute later, Solanke slipped a second one past Schmeichel for the lead.  That carried additional consequences as Leicester's Caglar Soyuncu kicked at Callum Wilson inside the net as he was retrieving the ball, earning a straight red for serious foul play (and for being stupid according to BFS Referee Consultant Graham Robb).  Down a man, Leicester surrendered two more, meaning they dropped three points and hurt their goal differential by three.  Nice work.

The trifecta was completed on Monday as Southampton refused to go quietly into the night against Man United.  In fact, they took the early lead.  Goals by Rashford and Martial quickly restored the natural order of things but the Red Devils failed to put Southampton away.  I texted Jeff H late in the match "better not get complacent here" but to no avail.  Substitute Michael Obafemi took delivery on a corner in the 96th minute (stoppage time added to stoppage time) to snatch a draw. Sorry Jeff, we're making it the YouTubeableMoment.

Sixth through eighth did manage to get three points each but even with the stumbles at the top, they are looking at long odds.  Wolves found their mojo in a 3-0 win over Everton, who look like they are playing in flip flops.  Sheffield got their three against Chelsea and Tottenham won a highly entertaining North London derby 2-1 on a late header by Aldervirile Eldervereld Altervidal Toby.  Lacazette had given the Gunners an early lead but Son took it right back within three minutes.  Great up-and-down action for the neutrals.

The revised odds for Champions League berths at 538 now have Chelsea at 76%, Man United at 70%, Leicester at 49% and Wolves at 4%.  I like Man United's odds a little better given that they play Crystal Palace, West Ham and Leicester while Chelsea still have Liverpool and Wolves, in addition to Norwich.  Leicester have a tough run-in with Sheffield United, Tottenham and Man United.  Well, we can thank the CAS for adding some spice to these last two weeks.


Two Wrongs Don't Make a Right

But in this case they probably evened out.  For reasons not clear to most viewers, VAR Jonathan Moss overturned two of Martin Atkinson's calls in Aston Villa's 2-0 life-saving win over Crystal Palace.  Early on, Moss ruled that Mamadou Sakho had handled the ball into the net.  Check out the play here; actually it looks to me like it comes off his back.  Early in the second half, Atkinson awarded Villa a PK for a foul on Jack Grealish.  You can see the incident here.  Looks pretty clear that van Aanholt landed on Grealish's foot, which is a foul.  Grealish's reaction is of course silly but should be irrelevant to the call.  Moss overturned that one too.  In both instances, Moss violated the BFS 30-second VAR Rule; if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide if the call was incorrect, by definition it is not a clear and obvious error.  Why the EPL doesn't require the referee to go to the monitor himself to see if he saw what he thought he saw is beyond me.  Luckily this time, the consequences evened out.

Deeney after the first of two PKs
(Image: Marc Aspland NMCPool)

The victory gives Villa just enough hope of staying up.  It was absolutely necessary after Norwich (0-4 loss to West Ham) and Newcastle (1-2 loss to Watford) failed to offer any help on Saturday.  The Magpie loss was particularly galling on a number of fronts.  After a decent first half in which they looked interested, Newcastle folded up shop in the second half.  Both Hornet goals were PKs after untidy challenges by Ritchie and Manquillo.  The loss was fully deserved.

Norwich is done but the next four sides all got three points over the weekend.  You'd say it was status quo, except that with so few matches left, the failure of West Ham and Watford to drop points is a problem.  Aston Villa need at least five points from the final three matches versus Everton, Arsenal and West Ham.  If Friday's West Ham-Watford fixture ends in a draw, they'll need six. 


Two Things I'll Bet You Didn't Know About Financial Fair Play Regulations

Basically, FFP requires you to keep salaries below a specified cap or face a transfer embargo.  You probably knew that.  But did you know that the salaries of players under 21 years old do not count against the cap?  Thanks to Football Manager, I was fully aware of that exception and have taken advantage of it often to keep Forest Green under the cap.  However, I assumed that the exemption applied for the entire season.  Wrong.  When the player turns 21 [I mean 22], his salary immediately goes against the cap.  I recently discovered this when we suddenly went from being okay to facing an embargo even though I hadn't made a personnel move.  Comparing earlier points in time, I could see the only difference was the player who turned 21 [22] was no longer exempt.  FM is great way to learn the inner workings of an EPL club.


The Schedule Revisited

With the shake up caused by recent events, let's review the mid-week fixtures.  Chelsea (vs Norwich on Tuesday) and Man United (Crystal Palace on Thursday) look good for three points.  Except I said the same thing on Friday.  Though 538 thinks Leicester should be fine against Sheffield United on Thursday, that looks like a tough match to me.

As for the chase pack, Wolves have to go to Turf Moor to face Burnley.  A good home team vs a good road team; doesn't seem like an easy one for Wolves.  Spurs have Newcastle at St. James' Park on Wednesday; I might have seen Newcastle nicking a point here but after the way they mailed in the second half at Watford, that seems unlikely.  And Sheffield face Leicester so they have their work cut out for them.

The relegation match of the week is West Ham vs Watford on Friday.  A winner there is going to be safe.  Even a draw will make it difficult for Aston Villa and Bournemouth.  Villa get Everton at Goodison Park which normally sounds bad but the Toffees have been spotty lately.  Bournemouth get Man City at home; good luck with that.

A heads up for Wednesday.  All four matches will be available only on NBC's new streaming service - Peacock. Some details are available here.  I think I'm getting old.  This just seems annoying.  Why do I need another streaming service to watch soccer?  And get off my lawn.