That's A Wrap

Maybe not quite as much drama for the last day as we'd hoped for but still a fun watch.  Heading out tomorrow so posting Tuesday night.

Spurs Stay, Hammers Down

I started with West Ham - Leeds on the TV and Spurs - Everton on the phone as that seemed like the most interesting story line at the start.  Both were scoreless for most of the first half, which meant Spurs were in.  A late first half goal from Palhinha put Tottenham up, giving them a two goal cushion since all they needed was a draw.  West Ham did break through for some second half goals and beat Leeds 3-0 but Spurs put up a clean sheet to hang on to 17th place by two points. So the West Ham loss last weekend to Newcastle proved fatal.  The other 18 losses didn't help either.

Down to the Final Whistle

An all too frequent sight for Chelsea
Photo: Getty Images

With the relegation battle somewhat decided, at halftime I switched to Sunderland - Chelsea on the phone and Liverpool - Brentford on the TV, as the battle for European spots was on.  Sunderland were up 1-0 at half, which meant the Black Cats had moved up to 7th and a spot in the Europa League while the Blues were out of the picture.  Things got worse for Chelsea as Gusto put in an own goal at 49 minutes.  But wait, Cole Palmer gets one back for Chelsea at 55 minutes and there's a long way to go; since they only need a draw, this could be interesting.  Then, Fofana does a very Chelsea thing, which is to get a second yellow at 61 minutes and leaves them a man down (more on Chelsea's disciplinary record below).  The final 40 minutes or so (a lot of stoppage time) are still quite competitive even after the red card but no equalizer is forthcoming so Sunderland are in and Chelsea out.

Meanwhile in Liverpool, Brentford are battling the home side and things are all square at 1-1.  Liverpool's interest may be waning as they no longer have a realistic shot at fourth place.  Brentford however are all in as a win here will vault them into 7th place.  The game is an excellent back and forth affair with multiple scoring chances for both sides, including a stoppage time header for the Bees that was agonizingly close.  No game winner is to be had though and the 1-1 draw leaves Brentford in 9th on goal differential and out of the European money.

A Season Best Forgotten

Eddie Howe: Next year has to be better, right?
Photo: Getty Images

Watching the matches that mattered, I did not see any of Newcastle's 0-2 loss at Fulham.  Apparently, I didn't miss anything.  The loss leaves them 12th in the table on 49 points.  On the surface, several things stand out as factors in the disappointing season:

1) The pre-season Isak transfer turmoil that created an unstable situation before a ball was kicked

2) The replacements for Isak (Wissa, Elanga, and Woltemade), who on paper looked adequate, were mostly failures (see this article which ranks them 183, 136 and 57 out of 189 transfers)

3) The Magpies were somewhat overwhelmed by their schedule, which included three decent runs in various cup competitions, including reaching the knockout phase of the Champions League (season highlight?)

4) Injuries (especially the long stretches without Guimaraes) were problematic given 3) above

5) An infuriating inability to hold onto leads

We await what we expect will be an active offseason with significant goings and comings of players.

Never in Doubt

Mostly anyway.  Though Aston Villa were losing to Man City through the first half, at no point did they actually fall to 5th.  Two second half goals from Watkins ensured that the result in Liverpool was irrelevant.  So Villa, even with an inconsistent second half of the season, finished 4th.

The Rewards

Champions League

Arsenal

Man City

Man United

Aston Villa

Liverpool

Europa League

Bournemouth

Sunderland

Europa Conference League

Brighton

maybe Crystal Palace depending on Wednesday's result

Bad Boys

Chelsea finished the season with eight red cards and 88 yellows.  The next closest was four red cards (Spurs and Everton).  Their yellow tally was third behind Spurs (97) and Bournemouth (89).  Full stats for the league are here.  I have the Blues' record in those eight matches as 1-2-5.  Since they missed out on Europe by just one point, those five losses were quite damaging.  

Looking at Spurs, who were second in this area with Bournemouth a quite distant third, this may be something they want to focus on for next season too.

How'd They Do?

Not as good as last year.  Here's the spreadsheet outlining how the various prognosticators did predicting the table this year.

Based on Sum of Squared Errors, this year's winner is Ninad Barbadikar, a free lance writer who works on the Premier League website and SPORTbible and other publications.  Silver went to the Average while bronze was shared by The Athletic and Adrian Kajumba, another writer for the Premier League website.  By contrast, last year's winner - Opta - had an SSE of just 380.

Biggest trip ups were Sunderland and Spurs, for opposite reasons.  Sunderland, who finished 7th, were no higher than 15th on anybody's list and 12 of 16 had them going down.  In contrast, Spurs, who finished 17th, were consensus top 10 and most had them 6th or 7th.  Burnley and Man City, again for opposite reasons, were the two that most were close on.  


How'd They Do - Part II

We've been pretty clear in this space about our general dislike of mid-season managerial changes, especially when decisions are made based on small sample sizes.  Looking at the chart of teams that made changes, maybe sometimes they work out.

A clear winner for the New Manager Bounce Award is Michael Carrick; Man United were .74 points per game better after he took over.  DeZerbi deserves some recognition too as Spurs definitely responded in time to avoid relegation.  However, note that bounce isn't anywhere near as big when you compare his record to Frank's, though it is an improvement.

West Ham improved by almost half a point under Santo as did Wolves under Edwards.  But wait, Nottingham Forest did better under Pereira.  Yes, but not by much.  

Chelsea did not see any new manager bounce, getting worse after Rosenior took over.  Hmm, Chelsea averaged 1.59 points per game under Maresca, the second highest figure for anybody in the table.  Burnley got no bounce either, though the sample size there is really too small to draw a conclusion.

I should be clear that I do recognize that sometimes a mid-season change is necessary.  What I object to are sackings based on limited results and replacements that reflect little thought about the long-term consequences.   Based on that, I'm generally okay with the West Ham, Wolves and Man United actions.  Of course, the changes at Wolves and West Ham did not save those teams from relegation even though results did improve.  The Man United switched paid off big time; the Red Devils probably do not make the Champions League based on the numbers Amirom was putting up.  

Others don't pass the tests.  Nottingham Forest did stay up under Pereira.  However, at 1.22 points per game, they probably stay up under Dyche (who only got 18 matches in charge) as well and certainly would have been okay with Santo (a personality driven sacking?) at the helm the whole season.  With sackings after three matches (Santo), five matches (Postecoglu) and 18 matches (Dyche), clearly nobody got a serious chance and/or the choices were suspect.

Chelsea's decision to cut ties with Maresca may have been more about team politics than performance .  The Rosenior selection seemed based more on hope than solid credentials.  But then they only gave him 13 matches before he was sacked so it doesn't look like it was about developing managerial potential.

As for Burnley, I don't fully understand why Parker didn't wait until the season was over.

That leaves me with Spurs, the one that has me wondering what the f are they thinking in that front office.  Yes, it worked out, if you consider a team of Spurs' stature avoiding relegation with a 1-0 win over Everton on the final day "working out."  Note however, at 1.12 points per game under Frank, they would have finished with 42.56 points compared to the actual 41 they actually collected.  The panicky and completely unfathomable decision to put Tudor in charge nearly got them relegated.  It's like they couldn't see past the next match.  Tudor got to manage just five league games before he was sacked.  So these changes fail the tests on multiple levels.  I will say that the DeZerbi hire does seem a little more thought out.  But are they better with him than they eventually would have been with Frank, who got just 26 games with an injury-riddled side?

Speaking of Managerial Changes

We should be planning for different faces next year.  Pep Guardiola announced he was leaving Man City with Enzo Maresca slated to take his place.  Bournemouth has hired Marco Rose to replace Andoni Iraola, who declined to sign a new contract when his current deal expired.  Xabi Alonso will take the reins from interim head coach Calum McFarlane.  Oliver Glasner had already announced he would be leaving at the end of the season; Crystal Palace have not named his replacement yet.  Marco Silva is out of contract at Fulham and rumors abound that he is heading to Benfica.  That's 25% of the jobs right there.

Both Eddie Howe and Arne Slot were frequently mentioned as possible casualties of disappointing seasons but right now the betting money is that both stay.  

And, we not even counting changes happening at the relegated clubs. Nuno is very possibly leaving West Ham.   At Burnley, Mike Jackson is serving as interim manager with no permanent manager hired as yet but expect a new face there too.

What Was That?

Not sure if it's a good or bad thing that I missed the Union's slugfest in Miami that ended in a 6-4 win for the home side.  The first half might have been the wildest 45 56 of soccer this year.  The scoreline went, 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3, 4-3, 4-4.  The U were up two, then down one before getting their second PK in stoppage time to level things.  That one came after Miami had a 5th goal chalked off for offside and then a VAR review for handling that had occurred at the other end minutes before.

The second half was calmer.  The U actually kept it level until the 81st minute.  Miami tacked on another in stoppage time for a 6-4 win.  The xG was 4.9/4.2 favor Miami but the Union had two PKs worth about .8; still, 2.6 is an improvement.  But, Miami allow almost 2 per game so is it that meaningful? They go into the break in last, trailing Atlanta by four points.

More Hardware for Armetta Financial Services (aka Sportif Allentown)

The trophies keep piling up for Dennis's club team.  This time they defended their Friendship Cup title, their third win in four years in this competition.  Here's the trophy raising video picture:

Dennis was given the honor of actually raising the cup because, well, he built it.  The wooden base part of it anyway.  

Last Acts

Just two more matches for this season:

- Europa Conference League final between Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday at 3 pm

- Champions League final between Arsenal and PSG on Saturday at noon

With travel, likely to miss both.  Oh well.

First WC matches are Thursday June 11.  We'll be taking next week off but figure we'll be back with some thoughts on the WC right before the competition starts.

A Few Things Left To Do

Some doors were closed but there are still some open issues. We'll review the week chronologically.

Villa Seal Champions League Spot

Neither Dennis nor I had any expectations of a result from the Liverpool match, though Dennis did note that Liverpool have been almost as inconsistent as Villa.  And it was the Reds who came up way short in this one, with Aston Villa running away to a 4-2 win.  The match didn't feel that close.  Villa got a late first half goal from Rogers but van Dijk leveled things at 51 minutes.  Then the rout was on as Villa poured in three unanswered (two from Watkins, one from McGinn).  The stoppage time goal from van Dijk was a footnote.  

The win guaranteed no worse than fifth place for Aston Villa and a spot in Champions League.  Liverpool was left vulnerable.

Feh Cup

Another boring domestic cup final.  Seriously Chelsea, you could only manage five shots, two on target for an xG of .49?  At least the winning goal, seen here, had a touch of class, with Haaland setting up Semenyo.  At this point, Man City still had a chance at the domestic triple.  Also, since City already have a spot in Europe, this means that Europa League spots will go to sixth and seventh place (or just seventh if EPL cop a sixth spot in Champions League) and eighth gets you Conference League.

Walking Into A Minefield

Speaking of 6th through 8th place, the Sunday 10 am time slot was a disaster area for many of the sides still clinging to hopes of a spot in Europe.  Brentford could only manage a 2-2 draw at home versus Crystal Palace, a club presumably with nothing to play for except the Europa Conference League final in 10 days.  Frankly, the Bees were lucky to even get a draw.  Fulham could also only get a point at Wolves.  But at least those two teams got something.  Everton were soundly beaten 1-3 at home by Sunderland and Brighton lost 1-0 at Leeds.  Everton's and Fulham's hopes are basically gone; Brighton and Brentford made their lives considerably more difficult.  Sunderland, on the other hand, put themselves firmly into the equation.

Bournemouth and Chelsea, who were both off for the weekend due to FA Cup matches, benefited from the strategy discussed in the 1983 film War Games (link corrected).  

Newcastle Leave West Ham Little Hope

Osula doubles Newcastle lead; we'll leave out the picture
of his questionable gesture after scoring
Richard Lee / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

The Magpies got after West Ham early and were up 2-0 by 18 minutes.  Nuno made a tactical change that did make the Hammers more competitive but it didn't do much for the score.  Osula's second of the day made it 3-0 at 64 minutes and this one was pretty much over.  The Dane's late season development has taken away a bit of the sting of the Woltemade, Elanga and Wissa disappointments.  West Ham were now dependent on Chelsea beating Spurs to stay alive.  The three points weren't all that helpful to Newcastle, as their goal differential pretty much puts eighth place out of reach.  It was a good way to close out the season at Saint James' Park though.

Arsenal Do Their Part, Barely

We might have expected more than a 1-0 win for the Gunners over Burnley but it got the job done.  In truth, it was a bit more comfortable than the score suggests, as Burnley did not manage a shot on target.  The win meant that anything less than a win for Man City against Bournemouth tomorrow would seal the EPL title for Arsenal.

No Domestic Triple For Man City

Man City's vision of the domestic triple (League Cup, FA Cup and Premier League Title) lasted three days.  Bournemouth took a first half lead, blew some incredible chances to put the match away, but still came away with a 1-1 draw.  The result was fatal to City's title hopes.  They are four back of Arsenal with one to go.  The draw wasn't of much use to Bournemouth either.  Three points would have given them a shot at fifth place.  Now, because of their goal differential compared to Liverpool, sixth is the best they can do; it did take eighth place off the table and they are guaranteed a spot in the Europa League.

Spurs Still Not Safe

Needing only a draw against Chelsea to effectively fend off relegation, Spurs came up with another lackluster outing.  They fell behind early, then surrendered another goal in the second half.  Richarlison got one back at 73 minutes to make the end of the match interesting but an equalizer was not in the cards.  The relegation battle goes on to the last week.

UEL Stands for Unai Emery League

Um, can I just keep it this time?
Getty Images

Really it stands for UEFA Europa League but they might as well name it after the Spaniard, as this was his fifth win.  Aston Villa were clear favorites and played like it, though it did take a while for the dominance to show on the scoreboard.  At 40 minutes Tielemans delivered an awesome volley off a Rogers cross.  In first half stoppage time, Buendia fired in a marvelous shot from just outside the box.  Buendia and Rogers combined on a deft play to put the thing to bed at 57 minutes.

Since Villa already had a Champions League spot, the win leaves a sliver of hope for a sixth Champions League spot but only if Villa drop to fifth in the table.

Union - Columbus Highlights

1) The more efficient way to order the sausage sandwich is to have them put the peppers and onions in the roll first, then put the sausage in.  This keeps the toppings from spilling onto your lap and each bite of the sandwich has the proper sausage to toppings ratio.  I have applied for a patent.

2) The Heineken Zero was free.  Technically it's called Heineken 0.0, which was the Union's xG in the first half.

3) Our row neighbors had to slip by us about at about 65 minutes - ice cream run the mom said.  I said vanilla would be great.  Classy row mates that they are, they got me and Jeff K a bowl of vanilla soft serve.

This is much simpler than a point by point
 elaboration of what the Union need

Okay, the Union goal was pretty good too, with Anello slipping a great pass to Iloski in the box. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, but only because I have no video of the sausage sandwich being assembled.

The first half was awful.  Cavan Sullivan couldn't have had more than five touches.  There was simply no play down the right hand side.  Whether it was Carnell's halftime talk or bringing on Anello, the second half was at least watchable.  Sullivan started to see more of the ball and the scoring chances started to come.  The Iloski goal came at 69 minutes and with the Union in the ascendancy, we held out some hope for a W.  The Union did have some chances - as did Columbus - but 1-1 was the final and seemed correct.

With one game before the WC break, the U sit in last place, four behind Atlanta who have a game in hand.  So many things need to be addressed, one despairs that anything good will come of this season.

Southampton Ain't No Saints

The alleged spy: Seriously, hiding behind a tree?
 (Photo: The Athletic)

In case you missed it, the participants in this Saturday's most lucrative match in football (i.e. the Championship Playoff Final) have been revised.  Initially it was to have been Southampton versus Hull but due to "spying scandal" (explained here), Middlesborough will take the Saints' place.  The club has admitted to the infractions but has argued the sanctions are not proportional to the violations.  True, a $250m fine for spying might sound excessive.  Except, they admitted to multiple instances of spying during the season so even being in the playoffs is suspect.  That is, had Southampton been caught during the regular season, they would have likely faced a point deduction which might have been enough to drop them below sixth place, the last playoff spot. Not feeling sorry for them.  Also, their misbehavior may have cost Wrexham a spot in the promotion playoffs, though it is way too late to do anything about that.

Bullet Dodged - The "Special One" Is Not Coming to Newcastle

It's being widely reported that Real Madrid has agreed to a three-year contract with Jose Mourinho.  Phew, what a relief after a spring of hearing his name linked to a move to Saint James' Park. Not saying I think everything is hunky dory at Newcastle but I don't see how bringing him in would help the situation.

BFS Inbox

From former BFS Squash Champion Jeff K we got this excellent article about former Union center back Auston Trusty.  It's a long but worthwhile read about his journey from Media PA to the Union, to Colorado to Sheffield United and then Celtic.  A small nit - couldn't we have gotten one picture of something in Philly?

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along oldie but goodie from November 2024 in which Stanford buries a hail Mary in the final seconds to defeat Notre Dame 3-2.  Two side notes.  If I read the box score correctly, Notre Dame had leveled the match just 11 seconds before this play.  Second, in college the ball has to be across the goal line before time expires to count so this was barely in the nick of time.

"Decision Day"

Fair enough label I guess given there are a few things on the line.  All matches at 11; check your local listing for the NBC affiliate that has the game that interests you.  Here's the list, with a brief explanation of relevance, if any:

- Man City vs Aston Villa - Matters only if Villa lose and Liverpool win, in which case sixth place gets a CL spot

- Brighton vs Man United - Matters because Brighton still have shot at 6-8

- Fulham vs Newcastle - Not really as both sides have crappy goal differentials so even a win won't get them 8th

- Spurs vs Everton - Matters because Spurs need win or draw to avoid relegation; Everton goal differential likely too great to overcome

- Liverpool vs Brentford - Matters because a Liverpool win and Villa loss would get EPL a sixth Champions League spot and because Brentford have a legitimate shot at 7th or 8th

- Burnley vs Wolves - No as this is 19th vs 20th

- Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth - Matters because Bournemouth need a point to clinch 6th place

- West Ham vs Leeds - Matters because West Ham must win and Spurs lose for Hammers to stay up

- Sunderland vs Chelsea - Matters as both sides have a shot at 7th or 8th

- Palace vs Arsenal - No because both will have their sights on European finals next week

This is actually better than I realized, as seven of the ten matches have something on the line.  Loyalty would dictate that I watch Newcastle but there are many better choices.  Although Opta says Chelsea are strong favorites, their match with Sunderland may be the best option as both sides have something to play for.  I imagine we'll have one game on the TV and one on the phone.

The Union have their final match before the WC break on Sunday at Miami.  Tough way to finish the first part of the season.

Don't forget Europa Conference League Final on Wednesday at 3 pm featuring Crystal Palace versus Rayo Vallecano (not a Spanish pop star).  Winner gets a spot in next year's Europa League.

Travel might dictate an early post next week, then a week off.  

Running Out of Road

Another pile of largely unsatisfactory results.  Some interesting VAR decisions to review.

Whatever

Newcastle added two more to their league leading total of 27 points dropped from winning positions.  The 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest was enough to officially remove the threat of relegation for both teams.  Unfortunately, it likely also killed whatever slim chances the Magpies were harboring for a place in Europe next year.

Watching live I felt Newcastle maybe deserved the win but stats says a draw was fair.  Shots were 16/17 (favor Forest), shots on target were 6/6 and xG was 1.48/1.10 (favor Newcastle).  

The Magpies were again without Lewis Miley, who broke his leg in training on Tuesday and will miss the remaining games for this season.  Hopefully, he will be ready for the start of next season.  A perfect anecdote for this star-crossed season.  Eddie Howe is likely to remain but with the expected exodus of key players, the club will need to retool if they hope to avoid a relegation battle. No, I'm not being alarmist; check out the table for the last 15 matches:

And that's off a win and a draw in our last two fixtures.  Work is needed.

Villa Stumble Again

Classic Aston Villa to fall behind 19th place Burnley early.  Also classic behavior to wake up and eventually take a 2-1 lead.  Alas, like Newcastle, they could not hold this lead.  Particularly galling that they surrendered the equalizer just two minutes after finally taking the lead.  I saw some of the second half and have to say the draw looks like a mostly fair result.  Burnley actually had a slightly higher xG.  

Though Villa were architects of their disappointment, we can still complain about a late non-call from Anthony Taylor (VAR Incident #1).  From our admittedly biased perspective, it sure look like Buendia was clipped in the box.  Dennis and I were sure that VAR was going to send Anthony Taylor to the monitor where he would clearly see the trip.  Shockingly, he was not sent to the monitor and the match ended 2-2. You can see the play here.

All kinds of annoying consequences from this draw.  Even though Liverpool were also only getting a point against Chelsea, the result leaves Villa with a 61% chance of finishing fifth.  Worse, sixth place is an 11% possibility and even seventh can't be ruled out.  A few weeks ago Champions League looked inevitable; their odds are still good but this is way more complicated than it needed to be.

Another Nail in the Hammers' Coffin

An absolute mess in the penalty area but
consensus seems to be this was a foul on Raya

Though they played well, West Ham came up short in a 1-0 loss to Arsenal.  Late in the match, a point looked possible until Trossard gave the Gunners the lead at 83 minutes.  There would be late dramatics though, with VAR Incident #2.  West Ham had looked to level the match on a corner kick in the 95th minute.  It was an incredibly messy play that you can see here.  The main focus was on whether Raya had been fouled but there was some discussion about other fouls on the play.  You won't find two more strident supporters than Dennis and I of the view that keepers are overprotected in these situations.  However, in this case we agreed with the decision that Raya had indeed been fouled (maybe even twice).  For us, VAR worked correctly on this one.

Arsenal's odds of winning the league are now at 87% even after City's easy win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday.  For West Ham, the news is not good as their relegation chance now stands at 88%.

Spurs Not Over the Line Yet

An anonymous commenter:"Genuinely, no idea why he's done that."

Tottenham did have the run of play against Leeds but could only carry a 1-0 lead late into the match. This proved costly when Tel attempted an heroic bicycle kick clearance in the box (VAR Incident #3).  VAR sent Jarred Gillett to the monitor and he concluded it was a PK, which Dominic Calvert-Lewin emphatically converted.  A bit of harsh call maybe as there was no ill-intent in the action but it was a careless challenge. 

VAR wasn't finished for the day as there was a challenge involving Maddison in box (VAR Incident #4).  For our money, the defender actually did get there first and VAR was correct in not sending Gillett to the monitor.  For the weekend, our scoresheet shows VAR correctly used in 3 of 4 situations.  Hmm, if I had scored 75% on my referee recertification test, I would not have passed.

Anyway, the point was not totally useless for Spurs and puts them two up on West Ham with two to play.  They are in control of their own destiny.  Even four points will probably be enough.

Union Score But Get No Points 

The Union did find the net a few times in road losses to New England (2-1) and Orlando City (4-3).  I didn't see the New England match but Dennis says it looked like a draw to him.  I would say the same thing about the wild loss to Orlando.  The Union downfall at Orlando was driven largely by shockingly bad work by the centerback duo of Makhanya and Martinez, who allowed numerous Orlando breakaways and were responsible for some unfortunate giveaways.   The huge positive was they twice rallied from two goal deficits to level the match at 3-3.  Another encouraging note was how much better they were once Cavan Sullivan came on late in the first half for an ailing Iloski.  The youngster got his first MLS goal, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment; if you follow the play from the start, it's actually a pretty cool give-and-go.

The bad news is that they are still four behind next-to-last place Atlanta, who have a game in hand.  The worse news is that prospects for improvement look slim.

Games That Matter

Thanks to some cup finals, we have matches running from Friday to Wednesday.  Many of them matter.  In chronological order:

Friday 3 pm - Aston Villa hosting Liverpool.  That will likely decide the battle for fourth place and could set up the possibility of a sixth EPL side getting a Champions League spot.  Anybody below Villa in the table will be rooting for Liverpool.

Saturday 10 am - FA Cup Final between Man City and Chelsea.  The winner gets a Europa League berth which would be a big deal for Chelsea since they will likely not qualify through EPL placing.  As City already have a spot in Champions League, if they were to win, the Europa League spot would go to 7th or 8th in the table.  Everybody below Aston Villa in the table will be rooting for Man City.

Sunday 10 am - All four matches involve teams that have an outside chance at one of the European slots.  Matches include Leeds - Brighton, Brentford - Crystal Palace, Wolves - Fulham and Everton - Sunderland.  Unfortunately, none of those look particularly competitive.  We'll probably go with Leeds - Brighton.

Sunday 12:30 - Newcastle vs West Ham at Saint James' Park. This could be the last hurrah for the Hammers.  It is Newcastle however.

Monday 3:00 - Arsenal vs Burnley.  The Gunners cannot clinch the title with a win but would keep the pressure on City.  Also, they may be interested in pouring a large number of goals into the net as they are now one behind City on goal differential.

Tuesday 2:30 - Bournemouth vs Man City.  Depending on earlier results, this could be a chance for the Cherries to snatch fifth place from right under Villa's nose.  

Tuesday 3:15 - Chelsea vs Tottenham.  Also depending on earlier results, this might be a chance for Spurs to guarantee their safety.

Wednesday 3 pm - Europa League Final between Aston Villa and Freiburg.  The winner gets a Champions League spot, which Villa may or may not have already clinched on Friday.  If  Villa are locked into fifth in the EPL table, anybody below them in the table is rooting for the Villans.

We will be at Subaru Park Saturday night for the "six pointer" with 13th place Columbus.  After this match, they'll play Miami away, then begin the World Cup break that runs until mid-July.  We'd love to see some personnel moves over that break but not holding our breath.

Fortunes Were Changed

This was a volatile weekend for "stock prices" of EPL sides.  One constant though was that the Union failed to score again.

WINNERS

Newcastle

Raving lunatics in action

The 3-1 win over Brighton didn't lead to an increase in stock price but rather a halt in the precipitous decline of the last few months.  The relief and celebration that spread around Saint James' Park at the final whistle might have led you to think that the Magpies had just fended off relegation as opposed to solidifying their hold on 13th in the table.  Technically, it's true that the win did put those long relegation odds to bed but it was more about them remembering how to win a match.  Osula got another one courtesy of a fine cross from Jacob Murphy.  The most impressive thing about the play, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, is that instead of staying down for a possible foul, Murphy got up to deliver the cross.  

A second goal on a Dan Burn header meant that 1) Newcastle had its first two goal lead in forever and 2) the rest of the match would be spent wondering how the Magpies would blow it.  They did concede a goal at 60 minutes and gave away some scary chances for Brighton to level.  They also missed a few golden opportunities to put the match away.  Finally, in stoppage time Harvey Barnes got the insurance goal to give the home fans some peace for the final seconds.

The win drops their relegation chances at Opta to 0%.  They are also showing up with a .03%  of finishing 6th, which could still get one a Champions League berth.  Right. Other European spots are also technically in play, though with so many sides ahead of them, the chances are slim.  Realistically, there is no place, up or down, for them to go at this point.  

Spurs

Conor Gallagher's first goal for
Spurs was a big one

No bigger winners this weekend than Spurs.  They went into the weekend as the prohibitive favorite to be the third relegatee but came away with a massive 2-1 win over Aston Villa.  It's true that Villa rested some starters and were missing McGinn due to injury but this was a still a beat down that wasn't as close as the score suggests.  The unexpected points dropped Spurs relegation chances to 21%, down from last week's 59%.  Basically, they have control over their destiny now.

Arsenal

Seems like just a few weeks ago we were wondering where Arsenal's dream season had gone.  Turns out it was right there all the time.  They easily took care of EPL business with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  Their title hopes then got a big boost when Man City could only draw 3-3 with Everton on Monday.  Opta now has them with an 86% chance of winning the Premier League, up from 72%.  Dennis thought with West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace as the Gunners' remaining opponents, that seemed low.

The good week continued with a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League semi for a 2-1 win on aggregate.  A close match but not all that intriguing. Arsenal fans won't care I'm sure.  They'll play PSG, who finished off Bayern in a boring 1-1 second leg for a 6-5 aggregate win, for the Champions League title on May 30th.

Nottingham Forest and Leeds

Leeds and Nottingham Forest pretty much got themselves across the relegation finish line with wins over Burnley and Chelsea respectively.

Man United

The win over Liverpool confirmed their Champions League spot for next year.  Their next big decision is do they keep Carrick?

LOSERS

West Ham

The big loser of the weekend was West Ham.  With their 0-3 loss to Brentford and Spurs win, the Hammers relegation odds went from 38% to 79%.  With Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds for their run in, the chances don't look promising that Nuno will be able to keep the team up.

 

Man City

The Everton - Man City match was supposed to be my chance for a nap on the Monday calendar but it turned into a great contest.  City had an early lead but a Guehi howler helped level it.  Everton then built a 3-1 lead that a lasted for two minutes before Haaland got one back.  The Toffees carried the lead late into stoppage time, looking at a massive three points to boost their chances for a spot in one of next year's European competitions.  Doku dashed those hopes with this equalizer at 90+7.

The thing is, though City rescued a point, they couldn't afford to drop two points here.  

Chelsea

For the record, the 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest was Chelsea's sixth straight league loss.  However, at least they scored for the first time in league play since March 4th.

Brighton

Nobody loses to Newcastle these days. It put a slight crimp in their hopes for Europe next year but they are still in the mix along with Bournemouth and Brentford.

RECOVERING

Aston Villa

McGinn's brace buried Forest

The recent run of poor league form had been annoying, though they were in little danger of losing their Champions League spot.  However, the 4-0 trouncing of Nottingham Forest in the second leg of their Europa League tie was an emphatic reminder of their potential.  Down 0-1 after the first leg, they did have the run of play for the first half but didn't cash in until Buendia and Watkins teamed up in the 36th minute to level things.  Buendia converted a second half PK before McGinn added a brace to completely shut the door.  Forest had been a bit of trendy pick based on recent results.  Also, it's fair to note that they were without Gibbs-White, who sustained facial injuries in the win over Chelsea.

Crystal Palace

Kind of the same story as Villa, with the Eagles falling to 15th in the table off of recent form.  They took care of Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 in aggregate to reach the finals of Europa Conference League.  A win over Rayo in the final would get Palace to next year's Europa League, a spot they probably can't get through league play at this point.

End of Month Planning

The remaining finals go like this:

5/16 - FA Cup Final - Chelsea vs Man City

5/20 - Europa League Final - Aston Villa vs Freiburg

5/27 - Europa Conference League Final - Crystal Palace vs Rayo

5/30 - Champions League Final - Arsenal vs PSG

Note that the EPL is represented in all three European finals.

Another Clean Sheet of the Wrong Kind

The Union continue to look good across most of the pitch - except the final third.  In the 0-0 draw with Nashville, they generated an xG of 1.3 but couldn't find the net.  I think they had two off the post compared to just one for Nashville.  The good news is that they played a very good Nashville side even up.  But even with the point, they are in last place, three behind Montreal.  Eesh.

A Lighter Week

We probably do need to get up for the 7:30 contest between Liverpool and Chelsea.  Or maybe not, Opta has the Reds as big home favorites here.  Three choices at 10 am except there's really only one - Fulham vs Bournemouth.  Other options of Brighton - Wolves and Sunderland - Man United don't seem worth it.

The 12:30 match is Man City Brentford; City can afford no more slip ups.

The Sunday 9 am slot is busy with Burnley - Aston Villa, Crystal Palace - Everton and Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  We have to go with Magpies but neutrals might do best with Palace versus Everton.  Ouch, just saw that Forest are big favorite over Newcastle.  The 11:30 match up is critical but not enticing as West Ham host Arsenal.

Monday's contest between Spurs and Leeds is important; this could be a chance for Spurs to put some space between themselves and the relegation zone.  

Man City cash in their game in hand on Wednesday versus Crystal Palace

Union travel to face revitalized a New England side.  I'm quite surprised that Opta barely has the Revolution favored even at home.  I suppose if you offered me a 0-0 draw at kick-off, I'd probably take it.