Who's In?

Matchday 2 took 8,245,731 scenarios off the table, leaving 4,127,463 possibilities for the third round of group stage matches.  We will review them after discussing the latest results.  Again, swamped with information and things are running together even more than last week.  We will do what we can.

We Will Not Be Outphysicaled (term coined by a Masterman English teacher so it's okay)

After fashioning a nifty 2-0 halftime lead on Australia, the USMNT did not back down in the second half as the taller and bigger Socceroos substantially upped the physicality.  As with Paraguay, the US play in the second half was nothing to write home about but it was good enough to preserve the 2-0 win and claim first place in Group D.  

Alex Freeman heads in the second goal for the US
Photo: AP Photo/Maddy Grassy

An early own goal helped but as we have pointed out in the past, not all own goals are blind luck.  If the Aussie defender had not tried to intercept the cross from Balogun, surely Pepi would have put it in the net.  And stop calling me Shirley.  The second goal was initially ruled offside but VAR intervened to confirm that 1)Freeman was not in an offside position when the initial shot was taken and 2) Balogun, who was in an offside position, did not block Beach's vision or interfere with ability to try to make the save.

Oh, and they won with Pulisic out due to injury.  The win clinched first place in Group D and a date on July 1 with one of the third place finishers.

Conversation That Took Place

Scott F: Lol, I go to the bathroom and not even 30 seconds later they score

Steve: Stay there?

Later

Scott F: Okay, so if it's more than 30 seconds after I get back, it's offside?

Steve: Nope, that's going to count

Scott F: So I'm 2 for 2

Steve: Keep drinking so you have to keep going

Scott F: Yes, people are offering to buy me more drinks

The Wettest World Cup Match Ever

The view from Section C40 Row 18, which was
 much drier than Section C40, Row 15

Or so we are told anyway.  BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W and I ventured to The Linc  Philadelphia Stadium fully aware of the approaching thunderstorms.  Fortunately, the first downpour occurred while we were circling the stadium looking for the entrance to the VIP parking lot that Michael B had scored from a friend.  The next downpour started late in the first half; again we were lucky that our seats were just far enough back that we stayed dry.  The storm continued so the start of the second half was delayed by 90+ minutes.

Great atmosphere again.  I was a bit surprised at the size of the Iraqi crowd, who basically occupied the entire south end of the stadium.  The France supporters, though probably greater in number than the Iraqis, were spread throughout the rest of the stadium so they didn't sound as loud; they were however just as vocal.  The rain and delay in no way dampened the enthusiasm of the crowd and the energy right before the kickoff of the delayed second half was amazing.  

Tickets were on Jack (thanks buddy) so I picked up the food and drink tab.  Despite paying for $25 beers, $20 chicken tenders and high prices for other assorted items, I am still way ahead on that deal.

The match?  Pretty tepid first half that saw Iraq defend well and go in at half time just down 0-1.  Unfortunately an awful mistake at the back (see below) early in the second half put to rest any hope of the result for the underdogs.

Howlers

There have been a bunch.  I can remember two specific fu mess-ups. South Korea surrendered an unfortunate goal to Mexico on a mistake by keeper Kim Seung-gyu, which you can see here.  Since the final was 1-0 Mexico, that was a killer.  In another example, Iraq had been doing a great job frustrating France and were only down 0-1 early in the second half.  Then they had this mistake in the back that gave Mbappe an easy tap in for his second goal of the night.  Like he needs help getting goals, right?  I know there have been others but these were the two that come to mind.

Early Nominee for Best Hair

Tahith Chong makes case for Most Valuable Hair

We've seen some possibilities.  Mackenzie mentioned Yan Diamonde of Ivory Coast.  I saw Ayyoub Bouaddi of Morocco as another choice, though Mackenzie wasn't convinced.  My leading candidate right now is Curacao's Tahith Chong.

Almiron Providing Instructional Videos on Recent Law Changes

Almiron red carded: Didn't your parents teach you not
to cover your mouth when you slur (Photo: ITV)

Recall that against the US, Miguel Almiron became the first player to "benefit" from the revision to the mistaken identity clause in the VAR language that expanded its application to cover players from the non-offending team.  In Friday's match, he became the first player to be red carded for the "don't cover your mouth when you slur" provision.  I'll admit this one caught me by surprise.  I read IFAB's review of the 26-27 law changes and this is not mentioned, nor is it listed in the language for Law 12 (Fouls and Misconduct).  However, there were numerous articles that did mention the rule change.  There was an announcement on the IFAB website; the key language is provided below:

Players covering their mouths in situations of confrontation with opponents

At the discretion of the competition organiser, any player covering their mouth in a confrontational situation with an opponent may be sanctioned with a red card.

 The announcers were aware of it and certainly the Turkiye players knew, as they pointed at Miggie as soon as he did it.  Somehow Paraguay, up 1-0 at the time, managed to keep the score that way despite playing more than half the match a man down.

Oh Miggie, where did your parents go wrong?  Unless Paraguay advance, he will not have a chance to violate any of the other new rules.

Hahahaland and Embop

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this remake of the Key role call butchering names.

Fun With Geometry

BFS Director of Historic Programs Mackenzie W sends along this story about the geometry and physics behind this year's World Cup ball.  Hmm, weird ball movement might be responsible for some of the howlers we've seen.

Not Funny

Last week it was Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scoring for DR Congo against Portugal.  This week it was Newcastle disappointment Anthony Elanga scoring for Sweden against the Netherlands.  The two combined for a total of one goal in the 25-26 Premier League season and now have two in four WC matches.  

 What We Know

Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have won their groups.  France, Norway and Colombia are guaranteed to advance.  Turkiye, Haiti, Tunisia, Panama and Jordan are out.

What About Third Place? (Danger: Wonkiness Ahead)

Before looking at the groups, we start with an assessment of what might be enough for third place teams to advance to the knockout stage.  Based on a review of each group's standings, I can only find five groups for which third place is guaranteed to have at least three points.  The flip side of that is that, right now, it's possible two points would be enough to get you to the knock out phase.  It's not as unlikely as you'd think.  Check it out:

Group A - If Mexico beat Czechia and Korea beat South Africa, third place has one point

Group B - If Qatar and Bosnia draw, third place has two points

Group E - If Germany beat Ecuador and Ivory Coast beat Curacao, third place has one point

Group G - If Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran, third place has one point

Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia, third place has two points

Group I - If Senegal and Iraq draw, third place has two points

Group K - If Congo and Uzbekistan draw, third place has two points

Individually, none of these sound outrageous to me.  However, at least five of them have to happen for two points to be enough.  So I guess it's still kind of a long shot. 

On the opposite end, does four points guarantee you'll advance?  Looks like no.  I found scenarios in every group but one (I) in which third place could have at least four points.  Check it out:

Group A - Czechia beat Mexico

Group B - Qatar and Bosnia don't draw

Group C - Scotland beat or draw with Brazil

Group D - Australia and Paraguay draw

Group E - Ecuador beat Germany

Group F - Sweden and Japan draw

Group G - Iran beat Egypt and New Zealand -Belgium isn't a draw

Group H - Uruguay beat Spain and Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia isn't a draw

Group J - Austria and Algeria draw

Group K - Congo beat Uzbekistan

Group L - Croatia beat or draw with Panama

Individually, some of these seem like long shots.  Collectively, nine of these would have to happen for for four points not to be enough.  

Teams that play later in the process will have a better idea of what it will take, as some of these scenarios will resolve.

What To Watch

So, what to watch, remembering that the last group stage matches kick off at the same time.  Unless you're going with multiple screens (two computers, computer and phone, two phones, tablet and phone, etc) you can only watch one.

Group A - Mexico have won Group A.  Everybody else has a chance to finish anywhere from second to last.  I'm going to guess that the South Korea vs South Africa (who have to win to have any chance of advancing) match will be more interesting than Mexico vs Czechia (who also have to win to have any chance of advancing).

Group B -The winner of Canada- Switzerland will finish first in the group; a draw means Canada advance while Switzerland finish second.  As noted above, Qatar and Bosnia need a win.  I'm going with Canada vs Switzerland; the latter, sitting on four points, might advance even with a loss.

Group C - Brazil, Morocco and Scotland can finish anywhere from first to third.  Guessing that Morocco - Haiti will be less competitive than Brazil - Scotland.

Group D - US has clinched first and Turkiye fourth so the neutral would go with Australia vs Paraguay.  The Aussies get second with a win or draw.

Group E - Curacao haven't been as helpless as expected but I'd still go with Germany - Ecuador over Curacao - Ivory Coast.

Group F - Netherlands are not guaranteed a spot yet but are expected to handle Tunisia so I'm going with Sweden vs Japan since they're level with three points.

Group G - This one is tougher but I'd go with New Zealand - Belgium over Egypt - Iran

Group H - Uruguay have been disappointing and Spain may have figured some things out so the Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia match may have more drama.

Group I - Though Senegal and Iraq have a lot at stake (each needs to win to have any chance to advance), I'm going with France - Norway; France get first in the group with a win or draw.  Plus it's a chance to see Hahahaland and Embop.

Group J - Austria - Algeria, each with three points, is the choice here over Argentina - Jordan.  Austria have the tie breaker.

Group K - Colombia - Portugal is a cool match up of heavyweights with first place in the group at stake; Portugal need the win to capture first.  DR Congo can get to four points with a win over Uzbekistan but I'd still go with the heavyweights.

Group L - My choice is made here as I will be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium for Croatia - Ghana.   Croatia, a point behind Ghana, will be more interested in a win.  On the other hand, Ghana, with the right result in the England - Panama match, could win the group.  

Yikes that was wonky.  And it's late so this doesn't even have the low level proofing I sometimes do.  There's no editor here right now.  Total chaos in the BFS offices.  Just keep watching.  It's been a pretty good show so far.

Round One

Twenty four matches down.  Frankly, things are starting to run together.  I did see more games than I expected so I have a pile of observations with no rhyme or reason.

Who Are Those Guys? (apologies to Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid)

Was that really the USMNT out there Friday night against Paraguay?  The final was 4-1 but it wasn't really that close.  Watching it, the US dominance was clear.  The stats agree with shots at 17/8, shots on target 6/2. possession 63/37 and expected goals 1.42/.54  (that last one seems light, though maybe because the first goal was an OG).  So often, for me anyway, when the US win it feels like it's because they were better athletes.  This time I thought they were simply better soccer players than the opposition.   We'll make Gio Reyna's stoppage time goal this week's YouTubeableMoment because it demonstrates how the US controlled the match; yes, it was 26 consecutive passes to set up the lovely outside of the foot shot from Reyna.

A Sea of Yellow

Me and Dennis and 65,000 Ecuadorians

Dennis and I were lucky enough to be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium Sunday night for the Ecuador Ivory Coast match (thanks David C).  Attendance was over 68,000, of which at 65,000 were Ecuadorian, or at the very least, rooting for Ecuador.  It was a sea of yellow.  Great fans before, during and after.  Clearly a disappointed group on the packed subway ride home but nothing like it could have been if it was, say, an Eagles crowd.

Decent match for a low scoring affair, with Ivory Coast getting the lone goal late in the second half.  I had a slight rooting edge for them but would have loved to have seen the pandemonium that would have ensued had Ecuador scored.  A fantastic experience.

IFAB Law Changes

Just in time for the World Cup, IFAB enacted a series of rule changes entitled the Anti-shithousery Initiative.  That's not what it says on the website but trust me, it's what they mean.  Key amendments include:

- referee can start a count of five on throw-ins and goal kicks if he believes they are taking too long; the sanction is throw-in or corner kick to the other team

- players have 10 seconds to get off the field after being substituted

- players who receive assessment or treatment on the field have to go off the pitch for a minute

Some other changes:

- ARs watches buzz for offside based on semi-automated technology

- VAR can intervene for cases of possible mistaken identity in showing cards to players of either team, not just the offending team (that one has already come into play - see Mistaken Identify below)

- an incorrectly awarded corner kick can be overturned by VAR

A little less than thrilled about the asymmetry of the last one.  Kind of like refs not showing a red card for fear of having too much an effect on the result.  Well if mistakenly giving a corner is risky for the defense, not calling one is just a big a deal for the offense.

Never Too Late

Jimenez got a little tearful after scoring versus South Africa
Photo:AP

At 35, Raul Jimenez made his first ever World Cup start in the tournament's opening match between Mexico and South Africa.  He would also get his first ever World Cup goal.  That sounded so strange until you see that, despite his veteran status, he had made just six substitute appearances in the three previous cups.  It was an emotional moment for him, partly reflecting the long comeback from his skull fracture but also the loss of his father a few months ago.

 

Truth in Advertising

It only took two matches to get really tired of the three minute commercial interruption mid-way through each half.  Dennis points out that when the pause is sponsored by Powerade, it's called an Hydration Break but when Lenovo is paying for it, they call it a  Match Break; he notes that at least the latter label "gives up any pretense that they are for the players."

Aside from an being unnecessary interruption, it can affect the flow of the game in favor of one team or the other.  On Sunday, Ecuador had finally found some momentum, getting a few scoring opportunities in quick succession.  Next thing we know, it's time for the commercial break and Ecuador lost the thread.

A Case of Mistaken Identity

Long-time readers of the blog know we are big fans of Miguel Almiron.  That said, we were thrilled to see him get booked for simulation in the match against the US.  You can see the play here.  This was not your average BFS though.  First, the initial call was foul and yellow card on Ream for the "tackle."  The VAR got in referee's ear and suggested he might want to look at the play based on him possibly showing the card to the wrong player.  Looking at the replay, you could see that Ream never touched Almiron, who dove anyway.  So the yellow on Ream was rescinded and transferred, if you will, to Almiron.  So the new rule came into play quickly.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Fortunately Did Not

Dennis:  Did you say that Morocco will have the edge in their match against Brazil?

Steve: No, I said Bono will be in goal for them.

So Much For the Group of Unicorns and Rainbows

Spain and Uruguay were arguably gifted the easiest group but both promptly threw away the advantage with draws against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia respectively.  Spain outshot Cape Verde 23 to 6 (8 to 1 on shots on goal), had 74% of possession and made 764 passes but failed to score.  Uruguay had a similar experience with shots 27/7, shots on target 10/3 and 65% possession but could only come away with a 1-1 draw.

Close, But No; Qatar

Answers to the questions 1) did Switzerland win and 2) who did they play.  Punctuation matters.

The Most Dangerous Lead In Soccer

Is one goal.  Just ask, Czechia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Switzerland, Morocco, Netherlands, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, New Zealand and Portugal, who failed to hold one goal leads. Only South Korea, Scotland, Ivory Coast and Ghana survived with a one goal lead; note that Ivory Coast got their lead in the 90th minute and Ghana took their lead in the 95th minute so neither of those two spent much time defending those leads.

When You Look Good, You Play Good

BFS Director of Historical Programs sends along this clip about the travelling attire of the DR Congo team.  The team went out and scored their first World Cup goal ever and, with the 1-1 draw to Portugal, got their first World Cup point ever as well.  Coincidence?  We'll never know.  

We were thrilled with the result as readers know we are not CR7 fans here.  However, I must admit to being slightly peeved that Yoane Wissa equaled his season goal tally for Newcastle in a single World Cup game.  

What To Watch

Here's our take on the matches in the second round of group stage matches.  There are a few additions based on the first round results.

June 18 - Mexico vs Korea - though the Group B matches (Canada v Qatar and Switzerland v Bosnia) are more interesting given that everybody drew their opening matches 1-1)

June 19 - Scotland vs Morocco, Turkiye vs Paraguay and US vs Australia (okay, that's three but they are all good)

June 20 - Netherland vs Sweden or maybe Germany vs Ivory Coast

June 21 - New Zealand vs Egypt though every other match that day (Belgium v Iran, Spain v Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay v Cape Verde) are way more interesting given that all those sides drew their first match

June 22 - Norway vs Senegal

June 23 - England vs Ghana ( not a great selection that day either)

I like to lay out the scenarios for the last phase of group play but I fear the permutations will overwhelm my bandwidth.   Still, my plan is to check in with a post on Wednesday morning.

Let the Games Begin

And it's a lot of games -  104 matches to be exact.  There will be 72 group stage matches and 32 knockout contests (yes, they still do the third place game).  The scale is massive.  There are matches every day from June 11th to July 7th.  If I read the schedule right, the only matchless days are 7/8, 7/12, 7/13, 7/16 and 7/17.

Here at BFS, we recognize that there will be plenty of sources to turn to for match results and analysis.  We will be posting regularly throughout the tournament but will be more focused on suggested viewing choices and maybe the less obvious aspects of the competition.  For sure, we will recognize the Most Valuable Hair; feel free to send in your nominations.

The Format

With the expansion to 48 countries, the format is slightly different than recent tournaments.  There are 12 groups of four and in the group stage, you play the other three teams in your group.  First and second in each group automatically move on to the knockout stage.  The top eight third place sides will also advance.  Yes, they will play 72 matches to eliminate 16 teams.  

From there it proceeds as you would expect with 32 in the first knockout round, then 16, then 8, then 4, then 2.  The final is July 19th in New Jersey, though you will hear reference to New York.  I've done work in Secaucus and can assure you it's in New Jersey.

Know Your Tiebreakers

These have always been a part of the tournament but with 12 instead of 8 groups and some third place teams advancing, we suspect they will come into play much more frequently this year.  For determining final placing in a group, the following rules apply:

Step One

- greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned

- superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

Step Two (if Step One can't resolve ties)

- superior goal difference in all group matches

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

- highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained

Step Three (if there are still ties)

- the two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking

Got it?  Good.

Here's how they will determine the top eight third place finishers:

- greatest number of points obtained in all group matches

- goal difference resulting from all group matches

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

- highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained in all group matches

- the two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking

Everybody clear on this? Given that many disparage the methodology used in the ranking process, we hope that it doesn't come down to that.

Predictions

Are a dime a dozen.  We don't participate.  However, there are two that I will draw to your attention.  First is the familiar Opta website.  We have generally been impressed with their forecasts for the Premier League so we send along this table.  They give Spain the highest probability of winning the whole thing, followed by France, England and Argentina.  On the surface, their projections look pretty rosy for the US - 33% chance of winning the group, 77% chance of getting out of the group stage and a 42% chance of getting to the round of 16.  That last number is driven by a scenario in which the US wins Group D and getting to play a third place finisher from one of the other groups in the first knockout round.  On the glass half empty side, that 77% is the lowest - by a mile - for any of the top seeds in other groups.  And, the spread between first and fourth is the smallest for any group.  I stand by my suggestions in previous posts that this is the most difficult group to get out of.  

The second set of projections comes from Joachim Klement, who has correctly picked the winner of the last three World Cups.  You can see his complete analysis here.  He has the Dutch Holland the Netherlands beating Portugal in the final.  His assessment of the US fortunes is less optimistic than Opta's.  Basically, he sees them finishing third in the group behind Australia (!) and Turkiye.  That gets them Germany in the first knockout round, which does not end well for the USMNT.  The whole thing is a fun read, essentially saying yeah I've been right in the past but if you use these projections to make bets on the tournament, you're a fool.  I'm becoming a big fan, mostly for his echoing my view of Group D and the US chances.  Key paragraph on that subject is below:

Group D is the most evenly matched group of all in this World Cup. In truth, every one of the four teams can come first in the group, and all of them can come last. It will all depend on the form on the day who will succeed, but I think the Australians will summon their cricket spirit and win the group in the same way they win the Ashes – mostly due to the ineptitude of their opponents, and if that isn’t enough, then cheating. 

There are plenty of other prognosticators out there so have fun surfing the net if you want more information.  

What To Watch

For the first two matches of the group stage, there is no overlapping of fixtures so you could in theory watch every one of them.  Professor Ian Malcolm offers his view here on that strategy.  For match three in the group stage, the two matches for each group are played at the same time to minimize possible strategic tanking.  Here's initial thoughts on best viewing choices for the first two sets of matches.

June 11 - Korea vs Czechia

June 12 - US vs Paraguay

June 13 - Australia vs Turkiye and Brazil vs Morocco (it's a Saturday, treat yo self to two)

June 14 - Ivory Coast vs Ecuador and Netherlands vs Japan (see June 13th)

June 15 - Belgium vs Egypt

June 16 - France vs Senegal

June 17 - England vs Croatia

June 18 - Mexico vs Korea

June 19 - Scotland vs Morocco, Turkiye vs Paraguay and US vs Australia (okay, that's three but they are all good)

June 20 - Netherland vs Sweden or maybe Germany vs Ivory Coast

June 21 - New Zealand vs Egypt (least interesting day of the group stage?)

June 22 - Norway vs Senegal

June 23 - England vs Ghana ( not a great selection that day either)

Recommended viewing for the third set of matches is largely driven by the scenarios for advancing so we'll hold off on that for the moment.

Serendipity

Early on I decided I would not scramble for tickets based on the prices or the process or both.  I did say that I would go if tickets "fell into my lap."  Turns out it was a perfect strategy as I now have tickets for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador (thanks David C) and Croatia vs Ghana (thanks Mark B).    And, since I started this post, a third ticket (France v Iraq) fell into my lap too - thanks Jack W.  Awesome strategy indeed.

Who To Root For - Part I

My first preference is for the winner to be someone other than Argentina, Spain, Brazil, France or Germany.  I do have a bias for the US, England and Scotland, largely based on the leagues and players that I follow.  I would like to see Morocco go far but they won't surprise people as easily as they did in 2022.  They are a sound defensive squad but according to Opta have increased their attacking prowess without sacrificing the defensive strength.  Norway is another country with a bunch of Premier League players that I can get behind.  

Who To Root For - Part II

BFS Director of Historical Programs Mackenzie W offers a slightly different approach to choosing your rooting interests.  Her insights are below:

The way I chose who to root for in the World Cup, or any international tournament, is on the basis of “who suffered the worst under colonialism.” This sounds like a flippant ranking of suffering, but it is done on a game-by-game basis to have a nuanced understanding of how global power and history shape any given opportunity. It’s also a way to avoid supporting a popular team simply because they are popular and have a high winning history, which would be like rooting for the Yankees or the Cowboys simply because the franchises are wealthy and can afford to stack their teams. For example, in Group I when France plays Senegal, I would root for Senegal since this is a head-to-head matchup of colonizer versus colonized (plus the African fans really know how to throw a party in the stands). In Group A, Mexico will play South Africa. Both were colonies; however, South Africa more recently subjected its citizens to colonist policies that directly supported the colonizer at the expense of the colonized.

Group C will have Morocco play Haiti, also two former colonies. This is where it gets tricky as we do not want to play the “Oppression Olympics.” Haiti was colonized and enslaved and then after the first ever successful slave revolt in world history, the country was barred from international recognition and trade and forced to repay their colonizers for property loss, depriving the country from developing itself on the same scale as other nations at the time (think generational wealth). Morocco was colonized by the French and also the Arab Empire hundreds of years earlier. The indigenous people of North Africa, the Amazigh (pronounced ah-ma-zir) have been fighting against the monoculture to keep their identities alive for centuries. It’s not up to a white woman from the American Empire to decide who suffered more. At this point, I abandon my system and pick whoever is playing a good game with clean passes, good sportsmanship, and as little masculine posturing as possible. 

Hmm, my US and England choices do not stand up well in this methodology.  Go Morocco.

"Beautiful, Confounding and Corrupt"

Somali referee Omar Artan issued a preemptive red card

Mackenzie also sends along this video from vlogbrother John Green that provides a one sentence (okay very long one sentence) description of each country in the World Cup.  I very much like his three word description of the event itself.  Corrupt may not be the exact word to capture all that sucks about the World Cup but it will do.  The Independent has a long article here about the various issues.  Most recently, we read that Somali referee Omar Artan was "determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns and was denied entry" into the US.  Well that's very specific.  I expect there will be stories like this throughout the tournament that will leave me dismayed that I've invested time and money into the event.  

Tying Up Loose Ends

The last two European competitions wrapped up with close but, in truth, less than scintillating finals.  In the Europa Conference League, Crystal Palace took the measure of Rayo Vallecano 1-0 in a match that featured 16 shots and just three on target between the two sides.  The Champions League final wasn't much better.  Arsenal scored early, then basically parked the bus.  The strategy backfired when PSG got a PK at 65 minutes and eventually won the penalty shootout 4-3.  The Gunners managed just five shots and only one on target.  PSG showed more attacking interest, with 19 shots, four on target.  While certainly a disappointing result for Arsenal, the season has to be seen as a major success with a Premier League title and a Champions League final.

A Tale of Two Sackings

Following on the heels of the last post about managerial changes, we had the firing of Bradley Carnell (the Union) and Arne Slot (Liverpool).  Both were coming off successful seasons, with U having won the Supporters Shield and Liverpool the Premier League.  Both were dealing with disappointing results this season.  But that's about all they have in common.  While the Slot firing meets at least some of my criteria for a justified change, the Carnell axing has many of the aspects that drive me nuts.

In one sense, the small sample problem does not apply in either case.  Slot was there for two years and Carnell had about a year and a half.  However, at least Slot got a full second season whereas Carnell was terminated mid-year so it has some of that panicked, knee-jerk reaction overtones.  Another factor here may be related to the suspicion that Slot lived off the work done by his predecessor Jurgen Klopp but could only do so for so long.  Bill James once used the analogy of switching to inferior light bulbs; at first you don't notice the difference but after a while, when they burn out faster than the good ones, the difference becomes clear.

A bigger difference is that in the 2025 summer transfer window, Liverpool added Ekitike, Isak, Frimpong, Kerkez and Wirtz.  Okay, they did lose Nunez, Diaz and Alexander-Arnold but net the team was definitely stronger.  In contrast, the Union saw Baribo, Uhre, Wagner, and Glesnes leave and the replacements (Alladoh, Anello, Ndinga and Sery Larsen) coming nowhere near close to filling the gaps created by those departures.

And lastly, it looks like way more thought went into the Liverpool change.  Certainly there were discussions throughout the season and when they were ready, they brought in Andoni Iraola, who was available after not signing a new contract with Bournemouth.  Iraola, who's work at Bournemouth was solid, will be in place for the off season and ready to go in August.  In contrast, the Union named Ryan Richter (Union II manager) as the interim manager while they conduct a search for a permanent replacement.  So we're looking at uncertainty in this role for some period of time.  

Now, if Liverpool do something nutty like fire Iraola when they struggle in the first half of the 26-27 season, I will be the first to jump on their case.  But to me it looks like one team thought through their change and the other just did what comes easy - that is fire the manager when the team is doing poorly.  

There Goes the Tottenham Vote

Mamdami courting the NYC Gunner fans
Photo: @anySoccerTimes

BFS Artistic Director Laura O alerted us to the curious fashion decision made by NYC mayor Zohran Mamdami.  He showed up for an Eid al-Adha event with an Arsenal-themed kurta.  Either he's a true fan or he's made the political calculation that Arsenal fans outnumber Spurs fans in the Big Apple.

If things go according to plan, I'll do a post after the first round of group stage matches, which end on June 18th.  

That's A Wrap

Maybe not quite as much drama for the last day as we'd hoped for but still a fun watch.  Heading out tomorrow so posting Tuesday night.

Spurs Stay, Hammers Down

I started with West Ham - Leeds on the TV and Spurs - Everton on the phone as that seemed like the most interesting story line at the start.  Both were scoreless for most of the first half, which meant Spurs were in.  A late first half goal from Palhinha put Tottenham up, giving them a two goal cushion since all they needed was a draw.  West Ham did break through for some second half goals and beat Leeds 3-0 but Spurs put up a clean sheet to hang on to 17th place by two points. So the West Ham loss last weekend to Newcastle proved fatal.  The other 18 losses didn't help either.

Down to the Final Whistle

An all too frequent sight for Chelsea
Photo: Getty Images

With the relegation battle somewhat decided, at halftime I switched to Sunderland - Chelsea on the phone and Liverpool - Brentford on the TV, as the battle for European spots was on.  Sunderland were up 1-0 at half, which meant the Black Cats had moved up to 7th and a spot in the Europa League while the Blues were out of the picture.  Things got worse for Chelsea as Gusto put in an own goal at 49 minutes.  But wait, Cole Palmer gets one back for Chelsea at 55 minutes and there's a long way to go; since they only need a draw, this could be interesting.  Then, Fofana does a very Chelsea thing, which is to get a second yellow at 61 minutes and leaves them a man down (more on Chelsea's disciplinary record below).  The final 40 minutes or so (a lot of stoppage time) are still quite competitive even after the red card but no equalizer is forthcoming so Sunderland are in and Chelsea out.

Meanwhile in Liverpool, Brentford are battling the home side and things are all square at 1-1.  Liverpool's interest may be waning as they no longer have a realistic shot at fourth place.  Brentford however are all in as a win here will vault them into 7th place.  The game is an excellent back and forth affair with multiple scoring chances for both sides, including a stoppage time header for the Bees that was agonizingly close.  No game winner is to be had though and the 1-1 draw leaves Brentford in 9th on goal differential and out of the European money.

A Season Best Forgotten

Eddie Howe: Next year has to be better, right?
Photo: Getty Images

Watching the matches that mattered, I did not see any of Newcastle's 0-2 loss at Fulham.  Apparently, I didn't miss anything.  The loss leaves them 12th in the table on 49 points.  On the surface, several things stand out as factors in the disappointing season:

1) The pre-season Isak transfer turmoil that created an unstable situation before a ball was kicked

2) The replacements for Isak (Wissa, Elanga, and Woltemade), who on paper looked adequate, were mostly failures (see this article which ranks them 183, 136 and 57 out of 189 transfers)

3) The Magpies were somewhat overwhelmed by their schedule, which included three decent runs in various cup competitions, including reaching the knockout phase of the Champions League (season highlight?)

4) Injuries (especially the long stretches without Guimaraes) were problematic given 3) above

5) An infuriating inability to hold onto leads

We await what we expect will be an active offseason with significant goings and comings of players.

Never in Doubt

Mostly anyway.  Though Aston Villa were losing to Man City through the first half, at no point did they actually fall to 5th.  Two second half goals from Watkins ensured that the result in Liverpool was irrelevant.  So Villa, even with an inconsistent second half of the season, finished 4th.

The Rewards

Champions League

Arsenal

Man City

Man United

Aston Villa

Liverpool

Europa League

Bournemouth

Sunderland

Europa Conference League

Brighton

maybe Crystal Palace depending on Wednesday's result

Bad Boys

Chelsea finished the season with eight red cards and 88 yellows.  The next closest was four red cards (Spurs and Everton).  Their yellow tally was third behind Spurs (97) and Bournemouth (89).  Full stats for the league are here.  I have the Blues' record in those eight matches as 1-2-5.  Since they missed out on Europe by just one point, those five losses were quite damaging.  

Looking at Spurs, who were second in this area with Bournemouth a quite distant third, this may be something they want to focus on for next season too.

How'd They Do?

Not as good as last year.  Here's the spreadsheet outlining how the various prognosticators did predicting the table this year.

Based on Sum of Squared Errors, this year's winner is Ninad Barbadikar, a free lance writer who works on the Premier League website and SPORTbible and other publications.  Silver went to the Average while bronze was shared by The Athletic and Adrian Kajumba, another writer for the Premier League website.  By contrast, last year's winner - Opta - had an SSE of just 380.

Biggest trip ups were Sunderland and Spurs, for opposite reasons.  Sunderland, who finished 7th, were no higher than 15th on anybody's list and 12 of 16 had them going down.  In contrast, Spurs, who finished 17th, were consensus top 10 and most had them 6th or 7th.  Burnley and Man City, again for opposite reasons, were the two that most were close on.  


How'd They Do - Part II

We've been pretty clear in this space about our general dislike of mid-season managerial changes, especially when decisions are made based on small sample sizes.  Looking at the chart of teams that made changes, maybe sometimes they work out.

A clear winner for the New Manager Bounce Award is Michael Carrick; Man United were .74 points per game better after he took over.  DeZerbi deserves some recognition too as Spurs definitely responded in time to avoid relegation.  However, note that bounce isn't anywhere near as big when you compare his record to Frank's, though it is an improvement.

West Ham improved by almost half a point under Santo as did Wolves under Edwards.  But wait, Nottingham Forest did better under Pereira.  Yes, but not by much.  

Chelsea did not see any new manager bounce, getting worse after Rosenior took over.  Hmm, Chelsea averaged 1.59 points per game under Maresca, the second highest figure for anybody in the table.  Burnley got no bounce either, though the sample size there is really too small to draw a conclusion.

I should be clear that I do recognize that sometimes a mid-season change is necessary.  What I object to are sackings based on limited results and replacements that reflect little thought about the long-term consequences.   Based on that, I'm generally okay with the West Ham, Wolves and Man United actions.  Of course, the changes at Wolves and West Ham did not save those teams from relegation even though results did improve.  The Man United switched paid off big time; the Red Devils probably do not make the Champions League based on the numbers Amirom was putting up.  

Others don't pass the tests.  Nottingham Forest did stay up under Pereira.  However, at 1.22 points per game, they probably stay up under Dyche (who only got 18 matches in charge) as well and certainly would have been okay with Santo (a personality driven sacking?) at the helm the whole season.  With sackings after three matches (Santo), five matches (Postecoglu) and 18 matches (Dyche), clearly nobody got a serious chance and/or the choices were suspect.

Chelsea's decision to cut ties with Maresca may have been more about team politics than performance .  The Rosenior selection seemed based more on hope than solid credentials.  But then they only gave him 13 matches before he was sacked so it doesn't look like it was about developing managerial potential.

As for Burnley, I don't fully understand why Parker didn't wait until the season was over.

That leaves me with Spurs, the one that has me wondering what the f are they thinking in that front office.  Yes, it worked out, if you consider a team of Spurs' stature avoiding relegation with a 1-0 win over Everton on the final day "working out."  Note however, at 1.12 points per game under Frank, they would have finished with 42.56 points compared to the actual 41 they actually collected.  The panicky and completely unfathomable decision to put Tudor in charge nearly got them relegated.  It's like they couldn't see past the next match.  Tudor got to manage just five league games before he was sacked.  So these changes fail the tests on multiple levels.  I will say that the DeZerbi hire does seem a little more thought out.  But are they better with him than they eventually would have been with Frank, who got just 26 games with an injury-riddled side?

Speaking of Managerial Changes

We should be planning for different faces next year.  Pep Guardiola announced he was leaving Man City with Enzo Maresca slated to take his place.  Bournemouth has hired Marco Rose to replace Andoni Iraola, who declined to sign a new contract when his current deal expired.  Xabi Alonso will take the reins from interim head coach Calum McFarlane.  Oliver Glasner had already announced he would be leaving at the end of the season; Crystal Palace have not named his replacement yet.  Marco Silva is out of contract at Fulham and rumors abound that he is heading to Benfica.  That's 25% of the jobs right there.

Both Eddie Howe and Arne Slot were frequently mentioned as possible casualties of disappointing seasons but right now the betting money is that both stay.  

And, we not even counting changes happening at the relegated clubs. Nuno is very possibly leaving West Ham.   At Burnley, Mike Jackson is serving as interim manager with no permanent manager hired as yet but expect a new face there too.

What Was That?

Not sure if it's a good or bad thing that I missed the Union's slugfest in Miami that ended in a 6-4 win for the home side.  The first half might have been the wildest 45 56 of soccer this year.  The scoreline went, 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 3-3, 4-3, 4-4.  The U were up two, then down one before getting their second PK in stoppage time to level things.  That one came after Miami had a 5th goal chalked off for offside and then a VAR review for handling that had occurred at the other end minutes before.

The second half was calmer.  The U actually kept it level until the 81st minute.  Miami tacked on another in stoppage time for a 6-4 win.  The xG was 4.9/4.2 favor Miami but the Union had two PKs worth about .8; still, 2.6 is an improvement.  But, Miami allow almost 2 per game so is it that meaningful? They go into the break in last, trailing Atlanta by four points.

More Hardware for Armetta Financial Services (aka Sportif Allentown)

The trophies keep piling up for Dennis's club team.  This time they defended their Friendship Cup title, their third win in four years in this competition.  Here's the trophy raising video picture:

Dennis was given the honor of actually raising the cup because, well, he built it.  The wooden base part of it anyway.  

Last Acts

Just two more matches for this season:

- Europa Conference League final between Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano on Wednesday at 3 pm

- Champions League final between Arsenal and PSG on Saturday at noon

With travel, likely to miss both.  Oh well.

First WC matches are Thursday June 11.  We'll be taking next week off but figure we'll be back with some thoughts on the WC right before the competition starts.

A Few Things Left To Do

Some doors were closed but there are still some open issues. We'll review the week chronologically.

Villa Seal Champions League Spot

Neither Dennis nor I had any expectations of a result from the Liverpool match, though Dennis did note that Liverpool have been almost as inconsistent as Villa.  And it was the Reds who came up way short in this one, with Aston Villa running away to a 4-2 win.  The match didn't feel that close.  Villa got a late first half goal from Rogers but van Dijk leveled things at 51 minutes.  Then the rout was on as Villa poured in three unanswered (two from Watkins, one from McGinn).  The stoppage time goal from van Dijk was a footnote.  

The win guaranteed no worse than fifth place for Aston Villa and a spot in Champions League.  Liverpool was left vulnerable.

Feh Cup

Another boring domestic cup final.  Seriously Chelsea, you could only manage five shots, two on target for an xG of .49?  At least the winning goal, seen here, had a touch of class, with Haaland setting up Semenyo.  At this point, Man City still had a chance at the domestic triple.  Also, since City already have a spot in Europe, this means that Europa League spots will go to sixth and seventh place (or just seventh if EPL cop a sixth spot in Champions League) and eighth gets you Conference League.

Walking Into A Minefield

Speaking of 6th through 8th place, the Sunday 10 am time slot was a disaster area for many of the sides still clinging to hopes of a spot in Europe.  Brentford could only manage a 2-2 draw at home versus Crystal Palace, a club presumably with nothing to play for except the Europa Conference League final in 10 days.  Frankly, the Bees were lucky to even get a draw.  Fulham could also only get a point at Wolves.  But at least those two teams got something.  Everton were soundly beaten 1-3 at home by Sunderland and Brighton lost 1-0 at Leeds.  Everton's and Fulham's hopes are basically gone; Brighton and Brentford made their lives considerably more difficult.  Sunderland, on the other hand, put themselves firmly into the equation.

Bournemouth and Chelsea, who were both off for the weekend due to FA Cup matches, benefited from the strategy discussed in the 1983 film War Games (link corrected).  

Newcastle Leave West Ham Little Hope

Osula doubles Newcastle lead; we'll leave out the picture
of his questionable gesture after scoring
Richard Lee / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

The Magpies got after West Ham early and were up 2-0 by 18 minutes.  Nuno made a tactical change that did make the Hammers more competitive but it didn't do much for the score.  Osula's second of the day made it 3-0 at 64 minutes and this one was pretty much over.  The Dane's late season development has taken away a bit of the sting of the Woltemade, Elanga and Wissa disappointments.  West Ham were now dependent on Chelsea beating Spurs to stay alive.  The three points weren't all that helpful to Newcastle, as their goal differential pretty much puts eighth place out of reach.  It was a good way to close out the season at Saint James' Park though.

Arsenal Do Their Part, Barely

We might have expected more than a 1-0 win for the Gunners over Burnley but it got the job done.  In truth, it was a bit more comfortable than the score suggests, as Burnley did not manage a shot on target.  The win meant that anything less than a win for Man City against Bournemouth tomorrow would seal the EPL title for Arsenal.

No Domestic Triple For Man City

Man City's vision of the domestic triple (League Cup, FA Cup and Premier League Title) lasted three days.  Bournemouth took a first half lead, blew some incredible chances to put the match away, but still came away with a 1-1 draw.  The result was fatal to City's title hopes.  They are four back of Arsenal with one to go.  The draw wasn't of much use to Bournemouth either.  Three points would have given them a shot at fifth place.  Now, because of their goal differential compared to Liverpool, sixth is the best they can do; it did take eighth place off the table and they are guaranteed a spot in the Europa League.

Spurs Still Not Safe

Needing only a draw against Chelsea to effectively fend off relegation, Spurs came up with another lackluster outing.  They fell behind early, then surrendered another goal in the second half.  Richarlison got one back at 73 minutes to make the end of the match interesting but an equalizer was not in the cards.  The relegation battle goes on to the last week.

UEL Stands for Unai Emery League

Um, can I just keep it this time?
Getty Images

Really it stands for UEFA Europa League but they might as well name it after the Spaniard, as this was his fifth win.  Aston Villa were clear favorites and played like it, though it did take a while for the dominance to show on the scoreboard.  At 40 minutes Tielemans delivered an awesome volley off a Rogers cross.  In first half stoppage time, Buendia fired in a marvelous shot from just outside the box.  Buendia and Rogers combined on a deft play to put the thing to bed at 57 minutes.

Since Villa already had a Champions League spot, the win leaves a sliver of hope for a sixth Champions League spot but only if Villa drop to fifth in the table.

Union - Columbus Highlights

1) The more efficient way to order the sausage sandwich is to have them put the peppers and onions in the roll first, then put the sausage in.  This keeps the toppings from spilling onto your lap and each bite of the sandwich has the proper sausage to toppings ratio.  I have applied for a patent.

2) The Heineken Zero was free.  Technically it's called Heineken 0.0, which was the Union's xG in the first half.

3) Our row neighbors had to slip by us about at about 65 minutes - ice cream run the mom said.  I said vanilla would be great.  Classy row mates that they are, they got me and Jeff K a bowl of vanilla soft serve.

This is much simpler than a point by point
 elaboration of what the Union need

Okay, the Union goal was pretty good too, with Anello slipping a great pass to Iloski in the box. We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment, but only because I have no video of the sausage sandwich being assembled.

The first half was awful.  Cavan Sullivan couldn't have had more than five touches.  There was simply no play down the right hand side.  Whether it was Carnell's halftime talk or bringing on Anello, the second half was at least watchable.  Sullivan started to see more of the ball and the scoring chances started to come.  The Iloski goal came at 69 minutes and with the Union in the ascendancy, we held out some hope for a W.  The Union did have some chances - as did Columbus - but 1-1 was the final and seemed correct.

With one game before the WC break, the U sit in last place, four behind Atlanta who have a game in hand.  So many things need to be addressed, one despairs that anything good will come of this season.

Southampton Ain't No Saints

The alleged spy: Seriously, hiding behind a tree?
 (Photo: The Athletic)

In case you missed it, the participants in this Saturday's most lucrative match in football (i.e. the Championship Playoff Final) have been revised.  Initially it was to have been Southampton versus Hull but due to "spying scandal" (explained here), Middlesborough will take the Saints' place.  The club has admitted to the infractions but has argued the sanctions are not proportional to the violations.  True, a $250m fine for spying might sound excessive.  Except, they admitted to multiple instances of spying during the season so even being in the playoffs is suspect.  That is, had Southampton been caught during the regular season, they would have likely faced a point deduction which might have been enough to drop them below sixth place, the last playoff spot. Not feeling sorry for them.  Also, their misbehavior may have cost Wrexham a spot in the promotion playoffs, though it is way too late to do anything about that.

Bullet Dodged - The "Special One" Is Not Coming to Newcastle

It's being widely reported that Real Madrid has agreed to a three-year contract with Jose Mourinho.  Phew, what a relief after a spring of hearing his name linked to a move to Saint James' Park. Not saying I think everything is hunky dory at Newcastle but I don't see how bringing him in would help the situation.

BFS Inbox

From former BFS Squash Champion Jeff K we got this excellent article about former Union center back Auston Trusty.  It's a long but worthwhile read about his journey from Media PA to the Union, to Colorado to Sheffield United and then Celtic.  A small nit - couldn't we have gotten one picture of something in Philly?

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along oldie but goodie from November 2024 in which Stanford buries a hail Mary in the final seconds to defeat Notre Dame 3-2.  Two side notes.  If I read the box score correctly, Notre Dame had leveled the match just 11 seconds before this play.  Second, in college the ball has to be across the goal line before time expires to count so this was barely in the nick of time.

"Decision Day"

Fair enough label I guess given there are a few things on the line.  All matches at 11; check your local listing for the NBC affiliate that has the game that interests you.  Here's the list, with a brief explanation of relevance, if any:

- Man City vs Aston Villa - Matters only if Villa lose and Liverpool win, in which case sixth place gets a CL spot

- Brighton vs Man United - Matters because Brighton still have shot at 6-8

- Fulham vs Newcastle - Not really as both sides have crappy goal differentials so even a win won't get them 8th

- Spurs vs Everton - Matters because Spurs need win or draw to avoid relegation; Everton goal differential likely too great to overcome

- Liverpool vs Brentford - Matters because a Liverpool win and Villa loss would get EPL a sixth Champions League spot and because Brentford have a legitimate shot at 7th or 8th

- Burnley vs Wolves - No as this is 19th vs 20th

- Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth - Matters because Bournemouth need a point to clinch 6th place

- West Ham vs Leeds - Matters because West Ham must win and Spurs lose for Hammers to stay up

- Sunderland vs Chelsea - Matters as both sides have a shot at 7th or 8th

- Palace vs Arsenal - No because both will have their sights on European finals next week

This is actually better than I realized, as seven of the ten matches have something on the line.  Loyalty would dictate that I watch Newcastle but there are many better choices.  Although Opta says Chelsea are strong favorites, their match with Sunderland may be the best option as both sides have something to play for.  I imagine we'll have one game on the TV and one on the phone.

The Union have their final match before the WC break on Sunday at Miami.  Tough way to finish the first part of the season.

Don't forget Europa Conference League Final on Wednesday at 3 pm featuring Crystal Palace versus Rayo Vallecano (not a Spanish pop star).  Winner gets a spot in next year's Europa League.

Travel might dictate an early post next week, then a week off.