One Saturday in August

Newcastle and the Union get wins on the same day!

Reports of Our Relegation Threat Are Exaggerated

Elanga makes it two in two
Photo: Michael Zemanek/Shutterstock

The scoreline of Sunday's 2-0 win over Spurs is misleading.  After a scoreless first half the match felt like it could go either way.  Then the Magpies got two improbable finishes from two who, based on last year, would have been considered improbable sources - Elanga and Wissa.  Here's Wissa's goal, presented as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The stats have a decidedly Spurs bias - shots 16/7, shots on target 5/2, possession 58/42 and most tellingly xG 1.21/.88.  So Newcastle's only shots on target were the goals.  On a positive note, it looks like Spurs' higher xG is just the result of more shots, not higher probability shots.  

With four points from two matches that could have easily yielded one or none, maybe we need to adjust expectations.  Sure it's only two matches in but there are multiple promising signs including:

- an attacking philosophy right from the kickoffs so far

- Elanga and Wissa scoring like they did in 2024/25

- Hornicek looks like an improvement over Pope

- Dedic looks like a great addition to the backline that will also get stronger when Burn and Livramento return from injury

- new acquisitions Nico Gonzalez and Matias Fernandez-Pardo may not be Guimaraes and Tonali but they could start to fill that void

- no Champions League to add 11 matches to an already crowded schedule

I counsel patience for Spurs; they are likely to be okay once they sort out personnel.  The bad news is that patience hasn't exactly been the hallmark of that club.

Stop Dissing the 7:30 am Saturday Matches

First we had Hull's 2-0 upset of Man United, then we got Liverpool rescuing another 2-2 draw with a late goal.  They had fallen behind early but drew level at 60 minutes.  Forest went up again 10 minutes later after a foul in the box.  New arrival Victor Munoz rescued a point for the Reds with this bit of handiwork close to the goal.  

Low Bar

Aston Villa had a better outing this week, though it would have been difficult to duplicate the Brighton debacle.  Losing 0-1 to last year's champion and this year's favorite Arsenal is hardly a disaster.  They held the Gunners to an xG of just 1.21 on just seven shots with only two on target, so the scoreline is not misleading.  The problem is at the other end of the pitch.  They don't have a shot on target yet this season, let alone a goal.  I have same Rx for them as Spurs.

Myth Information

Turns out Erling Haaland's goalscoring prowess is not linked to his hair. The still-shorn Norseman netted two in Man City's 4-1 romp away to Crystal Palace.  This likely sent a shiver down the collective spine of the EPL.

Top Four

Chelsea had a relatively easy time with Brighton and Hull dispatched relegation rival Coventry City so four sides remain undefeated.  Here's the table after two weeks:

Exactly as predicted.

The Transfer Window Madness

Part of me wants to rail about how Man City was able to spend $257m to get Enzo Fernandez ($169m) and Illiman Ndiaye ($88m) as the summer transfer window closed.  Doesn't sound like financial fair play to me.  But they made a lot selling other players so that their net spend for the window was about $255m, just the fourth highest in the EPL.  The full table is below.

At one point it felt like dominos.  Gakpo was going to City, Ndiaye was going to Spurs and Richarlison was going to Everton.  Then, Gakpo wasn't leaving so City grabbed Ndiaye, leaving Spurs with a very disgruntled Richarlison.  

It was ultimately a frustrating window for USMNT striker Folarin Balogun.  His signing with Everton looked to be a formality until issues arose during his medical.  Monaco did not agree with the Everton medical assessment but they did continue to negotiate and reached a revised deal.  Except Balogun was no longer comfortable signing with Everton, feeling disrespected by the club and medical staff.  Details can be had here.  Just found a more detailed blow-by-blow accounting here.

And just for fun, here's one man's ranking of all 155 transfers this window.  Not necessarily surprised but see a couple of Villa deals near the bottom (looking at you Jackson and Garnacho); at least Manzambi, Goretzka, Suzuki and Gomes rate highly.   His generally positive views on the Newcastle deals mostly match mine.

Still Not Financially Fair

As a reminder, the EPL made a slight tweak to their financial fair play rules.  Previously, spending was controlled by limiting the size of the operating loss a club could sustain.  In other words, costs could only exceed revenues by a targeted amount.  Now they will use a squad cost ratio, which basically limits spending on players to 85% of their revenue.  It's a slightly different calculation with basically the same effect - your ability to spend $ on players is limited by your revenues.  

Given the massive variation in revenue between the clubs, this still doesn't look like a move towards greater fairness.  The most recent data I can find is from the 2024/25 season, available here.  Several clubs are over $900m while many are under $300m.  The chart below shows how that translates into a massive difference in allowable spending on players.

There's a fivefold difference between top and bottom and most clubs can only spend half or less of what the top four can spend.  Sure looks like the rules will still protect those with existing high revenue bases while preventing others from breaking through.

Milking the Cows

Pierre used his feet this time, not his head

Decidedly distracted viewing on my part but the Union's 3-1 win over Red Bulls sure looked deserved.  Stats mostly back that opinion; for example, xG was 3.5/2.1.  Check out this peach (link revised) of a goal from Cavan Sullivan.  Pierre got another one, not via the header but instead used his long frame to poke the ball into the net.  

They are now just one point out of a "play-in playoff" spot and four away from a real playoff position.  

Midweek Football Is Back

Just a three day match weekend for the EPL but plenty of Champions League action midweek.

Friday's 3 pm match/nap has Liverpool traveling to Ipswich.  At 59/20/21 that might be more of a nap, though maybe it will be Liverpool's third straight 2-2 draw?

No dissing this week's Saturday 7:30 fixture with Newcastle hosting Bournemouth; the Magpies are prohibitive favorites (44/31/25) but this could be a close one.  The 10 am time slot is crowded with five fixtures.  TV picked the Man City - Coventry City mismatch.  I'd go with Nottingham Forest v Spurs on Peacock as the most interesting pick; off recent form Spurs are slight underdogs (40/33/27) but this may be where they start to figure things out.  Other choices at 10 are Brentford - Sunderland, Fulham - Palace and Brighton -Leeds.  The feature match is Hull hosting Aston Villa; I believe this is the match where Villa get a shot on target and a win.  

Sunday is light but decent.  At 9 you get Everton vs Man United, then at 11:30 there's a solid London Derby with Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  In the latter, Opta sees the Gunners as a massive favorite at 57/19/24 but that seems high to me.

For midweek football lovers we have a complete Champions League schedule as they begin league play.  Full schedule is here.  Being EPL-centric, we note Tuesday has Aston Villa vs Club Brugge at 12:30 and Man City - Porto at 3.  Wednesday is Napoli- Arsenal and Liverpool-Atletico Madrid, both at 3.  The EPL's fifth entry, Man United, play Sabah at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to extend their unbeaten streak to eight as they host Montreal at Subaru Park Saturday at 7:30.  A home match versus the struggling 14th place side?  Has trap game with a capital T written all over it.  Hopefully they don't fall into it.  They also have Cincinnati on Wednesday at 7:30, again at home.  They could significantly boost their playoff chances with some results here.  

Days off are going to be scarce for a while.

Missed It By That Much

(Apologies to Maxwell Smart)

Newcastle were five seconds away from defeating Liverpool.  Some EPL sides stumbled badly out of the gate. The first "round" of the season is in the books.  What did we see?

We Played As Our Handicap Would Have Predicted

Arsenal 3-0 over Coventry

Chelsea 3-2 over Fulham

The Gunners got up early on visiting Coventry and were never pressed.  Not that we expected they would be.  Chelsea maybe should have done a little better against the Cottagers but it was an away derby; ex-Villan Morgan Rogers scored in his first league match for the Blues.

Maybe Our Handicap Is Better Than We Think

Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 

Leeds 1-0 at Nottingham Forest

Everton 2-0 home to Crystal Palace

None of these are big upsets but maybe better results than expected.  Ipswich got a 90th minute tally (from Jack Clarke seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment) to nip Sunderland, who might be fighting with the Tractor Boys to avoid relegation.  Leeds stole all three away at Nottingham Forest.  I watched Everton - Palace until the Toffees went up 2-0 at 53 minutes; mildly surprised at how easily they dispatched Palace. 

Double Bogeys On the 18th Hole Spoil A Good Round

Bournemouth lose 1-2 at Man City

Newcastle draw Liverpool 2-2 at Saint James' Park

More accurately, Bournemouth bogeyed 17 and 18.  Up 1-0 on City, the Cherries surrendered goals to Guehi at 84 minutes and Gvardiol in the second minute of stoppage time.  They get no points for their valiant effort.

More please: Elanga, who had no goals in league play last
year, scores in the 5th minute vs Liverpool

Newcastle looked solid against Liverpool with a viable attack and a solid defense.  Goals from Elanga and Willock had the Magpies up heading into stoppage time.  Then, on essentially the last play of the match, Lewis Hall fouled Munoz in the box and Sobersly Showboatslee Szoboszlai converted the PK to get Liverpool the draw.  It was the correct call, especially given how tightly Stuart Atwell had called the match to that point.  So Newcastle get a jump on points dropped from winning positions, although they do trail Bournemouth right now.  Another positive from the week is that they did sign Nico Gonzalez from Man City.  I'm starting to feel like a mid-table is possible. 

Can We Have A Mulligan?

Man United dumped 0-2 by Hull City

Spurs rung up 0-3 by Brentford

Aston Villa embarrassed 0-4 by Brighton

Hoo boy, that was some ugly stuff.  Can the season opener be a trap game?  For Man United it was.  They must have been thinking what a great break to get the consensus 20th place finisher Hull to start the campaign.  Hull just played harder, though not necessarily better.  United however did not look as bad as Spurs, who were thoroughly dominated by Brentford; unlike United, the beating on the field was backed up by the match stats.  Spurs did have more possession but trailed in almost every other category. An unimpressive debut for ex-Magpie Sandro Tonali, who appeared to have no impact on the outcome.  

But for stinking the joint up, no one beat Aston Villa.  Certainly facing Brighton in their friendly confines was never going to be an easy task.  This, however, was ridiculous.  An own goal at eight minutes was a bad sign; Villa were down 4-0 by the 31st minute and that was before Joao Gomes was sent off.  They managed no shots on target and an xG of .32.  Since I didn't watch the last 50 minutes, I have no idea how the score remained at 4-0 after the sending off.  

Conversation That Sort of Took Place

Dennis: Tell me the truth, you would have taken a 2-2 draw with Liverpool before kickoff.

Steve: Hell, I would have taken a 2-2 draw when we were up 2-1 in the 57th minute

Dumb, Dumber, Dumbest

There were plenty of fingerprints on the Villa disaster so perhaps it's unfair to single out Joao Gomes.  He started by getting a yellow card for making the yellow card gesture to the referee.  Not long after he made a challenge that probably wasn't reckless but also one that shouldn't be made by someone on a yellow.  He completed the cycle with a ridiculous kickout on Georginio Rutter to earn a straight red card.  He'll be suspended for three matches.  Emery can't be pleased with that performance.

Modern Day Samson

Stat of the week:

Is a barber the EPL's best defense against this guy?

Erling Haaland

League goals with long hair: 112

League goals with short hair: 0

Yeah, yeah, small sample and all that.  BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this video suggesting that others see the correlation as well.

Soccer Version of Hidden Ball Trick

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this clip from the Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town match.  I saw several commentators suggest this was either offside or possibly a yellow card for re-entering the pitch.  Coach Beard has the correct answer here: 

It's not offside because he didn't receive the ball from a teammate.  It's not a card because he was off the field from the natural course of play.  The goal stands.

Well-heeled Attacker?

BFS Retired Military Matters Consultant Greg M sent us this unbelievable goal from Bristol City's Dom Ballard against Birmingham City.  Can the goal of the year happen in August?

Well, We Did Say It Would Be Okay

I suppose we can't complain about the 1-1 draw at Austin on Saturday night since we suggested it would be an okay result given the circumstances.  This was their ninth match in 32 days since the World Cup, it was an away game and the temperature at kick off was 96 (but it was a dry heat). The teams traded goals in the first 21 minutes and after that it looked like a constant struggle against the heat.  This was a solid performance from the back line of Wagner, Harriel, Pierre and Westfield.  When Garry Maddox patrolled the outfield for the Phillies in the 70s, they used to say that two-third of the world is covered by water, the other third by Garry Maddox.  I'm starting to feel that way about Neil Pierre.  Yes, only a few matches into his MLS career but so far so good.

Too Soon To Carabao It

We will simply note that Newcastle knocked off West Brom 3-2 to advance to the next round.

Let's Try This Again

Friday's 3 pm fixture between Crystal Palace and Man City offers hope of a nap.  And the early 7:30 Saturday contest with Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest might get the DVR treatment - get up after 8 and use the FF button to be done in time for the 10 am fixtures.

Only two at 10 but one is a classic relegation confrontation, with Hull traveling to Coventry City; I would have had this down as a close one but Opta says 51/24/25 favor Coventry.  Also surprised that Bournemouth are 48/27/25 over visiting Everton in the other 10 contest; I would have thought that would be closer.  

The 12:30 feature match (actually on NBC this time) is maybe the most interesting of the week, with Newcastle travelling to London to face Spurs.  Both sides can be puzzling.  The Magpies may not be as bad as we feared while Spurs, ignoring last week's debacle at Brentford, really should be a vastly improved team from last year.  Opta sees it at 43/33/24 for Spurs and that seems right on target to me, especially with Spurs as hosts.

The packed time slot is Sunday at 9 am, all potentially interesting.  I'm curious how Brighton will do at Stamford Bridge, with some hope they'll be competitive.  Sunderland vs Fulham is a match-up of two sides that will be looking to stay out of the relegation fight.  And Opta has Leeds - Brentford as the tightest match of the week at 38/36/26 favor Leeds.  I have a soft spot for the Seagulls so I'll probably go with Chelsea - Brighton.  Sunday's other match at 11:30 would have been considered a trap game for Man United except for the fact that they lost last week and will probably not be caught off guard hosting Ipswich.

Monday's 3 pm match is scary, as Aston Villa will host Arsenal.  We're certainly hoping for better from the Villans but they are still a team in transition.  The pieces may all eventually fit together but maybe not right away. 

The Champions League league phase draw was held Thursday.  You can see the results here.  Europa League and Europa Conference League have their draws Friday.  Lots of EPL sides to follow but sadly, Newcastle are not one of them.  Or is that a good thing?

Union travel to Harrison to face Red Bulls Saturday at 7:30.  Last week's draw left them three points out of playoff spot.  They are just five behind the 8th place Red Bulls so this is a big six pointer.  Opta does not like our chances (44/29/27); we have some momentum and this is a team we've had some recent success against so maybe it will work out.  

Unfinished Business

I forgot to match the gaffer with his team last week.

I have to work on the pronunciation of Newcastle's new manager (YICE-sluh) before I can start remembering the other guys' names.

Here We Go

 

As in "With Eddie Howe gone and the midfield decimated, Steve approached Newcastle's coming EPL season with much trepidation."

Last Minute Transfers

Gonzalez would be a big help in midfield
Photo: Kieran McManus/Shutterstock

Newcastle continue to try to fill holes where they can.  Amar Dedic looks like good value at right back.  He has basically the same skill set as Livramento and is not overpriced at $40m.  There was talk about  bringing in Carlos Baleba or Joao Palhinha to shore up the midfield but those rumors have faded away.  Given that neither was anything close to a replacement for Tonali or Guimaraes and Baleba's price tag was ridiculous and he's currently injured, I view this as a good thing.  Now I'm reading about the possibility of signing Nico Gonzalez from Man City.  I didn't see a $ attached to the potential deal but signing him might reduce some of my trepidation.

Live Table

Apparently the last tie breaker is alphabetical...

Projections

Once again I've loaded a pile of pundit projections into a spreadsheet to see what the collective thinking is for the season.  Here's the table:

I couldn't find projections from last year's winner Ninad Barbadikar but recall that "Average" was the second most accurate.  The Athletic was third.  Two years ago, Average finished third behind Opta and Pinnacle.

Incredible to me that almost every projection has Arsenal first.  Not that it's a terrible pick, just that nobody disagrees.  Man City is clearly a consensus number two.  Third through fifth are tight between Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United.  Aston Villa and Spurs are the picks for the consolation European competition spots.  

The pundits don't see much hope for the newly promoted sides.  Hull are picked by all but one to finish last. Ipswich get 18 or 19 in every pick but one.  Coventry get a little love but most still see them heading down as well.  Sunderland and Fulham look like the only challengers for relegation.

Biggest divergence across the projections is for Nottingham Forest (6th! to 18th).  Newcastle are second biggest with a range of 6th to 17th.  The average puts the Magpies in 9th but this is kind of like head in the oven and feet in the freezer - some see a decent upper mid-table finish but others see a potential relegation battle.  Right now the relegation battle looks more likely.  Others with big spreads include Brentford (7th to 17th), Bournemouth (6th to 16th) and Sunderland (10th to 20th).  

Union Exception To Two Goal Lead Rule?

Regular readers know that I put no stock in the view that a two goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.  However, recent performances by the Union are making me consider an exception.  On Sunday, they came back from two goals down for the second game in a row for a 3-2 win.  

They had fallen behind NYCFC on two first half PKs.  The first was clear cut but I haven't seen a replay that convinces me that Vasilev was guilty of handling in the box for the second one.  No matter.  Danley JJ got the comeback started with putback goal at 48.  Then Damiani accepted passes on a silver platters from each of the Sullivan brothers for goals at 69 and 75 minutes to put the Union up 3-2.  You can see the two plays in this week's YouTubeableMoment (should open to about 68:10).  Damiani had to be precise but it was really about the quality of the passes from Cavan and Quinn.  Good on the brothers for not taking the shot but making the extra pass for the easier goal.  Jamie Tartt's father would be livid.  

He Ain't Messi, He's My Brother (apologies to The Hollies)

The Union's unbeaten MLS streak continued with a wild and raucous (and highly entertaining) 2-2 draw with Inter Miami on Wednesday night at a Subaru Park packed with far too many people in Messi jerseys.  The U got an early lead thanks to a Vasilev goal off a great cross from Westfield, who had been sprung by an insightful pass from Cavan Sullivan.  Miami countered with two of their own, arguably against the run of play; Messi keyed one of them with a great cross in the box, then got one of his own with a curler that Blake had no chance on.  To their credit, the Union did not wilt, got an equalizer in the second half from Pierre and actually had the better of play in the second half.  Missed chances however meant the final was 2-2.  The stats show the Union's dominance with shots 18/6, shots on target 8/3 and expected goals 3.5/1.6.  That last number highlights why we might be disappointed with the draw.

Cavan:Get your hands off my brother

For my money, Inter Miami was channeling their inner Argentina all night, going down much too easily on contact and feigning injury; I still think it should be a yellow if you grab a body part in pain that was never touched in the contact.  Referee Filip Dujic was far too willing to award free kicks (for both sides) for minimal contact.  Things finally boiled over late in stoppage time when Quinn Sullivan and Ian Fray (his name says altercation!) got tangled up in the box. The real fight ended up being between Yannick Bright and Cavan Sullivan, who quickly moved to stick up for his older brother.  Both got red cards and at that point, Dujic realized his best option was to blow the whistle for full-time.

So we have to say the Union passed this test, coming away with four points against NYCFC and Miami.  They are still 13th but are now just four points out of a playoff spot.   

Still A Travesty...

With new stadium under construction, days of soccer
at Yankee Stadium are mercifully numbered

...to see soccer played in Yankee Stadium.  It's too small, they have to put down sod on the infield and the fans on the near side are 100 miles from the pitch.  Dennis and I debated who hates the situation more - the Yankees or NYCFC.  We concluded that the answer is probably the people who have to convert the field between the two configurations.

What He Meant

Dennis provides the following translations of things actually said by TV commentators this weekend.

Announcer: The team chose to use their depth in mid-week Leagues Cup action

Dennis's translation: The team did not give a shit about the Leagues Cup and played the entire second team

Announcer: She's lucky to be on a team without a prolific scorer

Dennis's translation: On any other team, she would not get any playing time

The Weekend

First week fixtures are mostly a lot of top half contenders versus the bottom half.  We start with Arsenal hosting Coventry on Friday at 3 pm.  The Gunners are 80% favorites to win that one but hey, we'll watch anything on a Friday afternoon.  Not sure I feel the same way about getting up at 7:30 Saturday for Hull vs Man United.  The 10 am slot may have the more competitive fixtures of the weekend - Ipswich v Sunderland, Everton v Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest v Leeds.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 is a London Derby with Brentford hosting Spurs.  Totally surprised that Opta has Brentford favored at 41/34/25.  [Ed note: I'll be using that format to present Opta projections; the first number is percent likelihood the favorite wins, the second is the percent chance for the underdog and the third number is the chance of a draw.]  

Back at it early Sunday with Man City home to Bournemouth and Aston Villa heading to Brighton. Both are at 9 am but we'll go with the Villa game, for which they are surprisingly the underdogs (44/31/25).  The late Sunday fixture is Newcastle's home opener against Liverpool at 11:30.  I may be on delay for that as someone got me Phillies tickets.  Maybe for the best as the Magpies are significant underdogs (50/26/24).

Matchweek 1 concludes with another London Derby, this one pitting Fulham against Chelsea.

It's a quiet week for the Union, as they just have one match, away to Austin on Saturday at 8:30.  The hosts do have a worse record than the Union who are slight favorites (44/31/25) but this is an away match at the end of a congested stretch.  Hoping for the W but would take the D.

Let's do this!

In Case You Missed It

The Union got better.  Eddie Howe "left" Newcastle.  Infantino tried to sell the World Cup. 

Not A New Manager Bounce

Since the World Cup, the Union have three league wins (plus a win and and two losses in Leagues Cup).  The most fun of these was the comeback down 0-2 to Atlanta which featured two goals in stoppage time for the win.  The comeback is chronicled here (video should start at about 72 minutes).  They did lose on Thursday to bow out of the Leagues Cup but I can't see that as a problem; it was a heavily rotated lineup and they don't need the extra matches.

I'm seeing comments about the new manager bounce under Ryan Richter and that Carnell always does worse in his second year with a team.  Not buying either.  Four important pieces to last season's success were not available to Carnell this year - Baribo (leading scorer), Wagner (leading assist provider and part of solid back line), Quinn Sullivan (key to attacking from wing) and Glesnes (center back in solid back four). Without replacements for these changes, what did we expect?

I have no idea about Ryan Richter as a manager; maybe he'll be great.  But he is fortunate to start his tenure with three of those problems addressed.  Wagner was reacquired and has been dishing the assists (3 in 3 MLS matches).  Quinn Sullivan is back from injury and is creating havoc down the right wing.  And Neil Pierre has been a revelation at center back, not just a replacement for Glesnes but an upgrade; besides a being a solid presence in the middle of the back line, he's added two header goals as well.

All of sudden, the playoffs don't look unreachable.  At the very least, the team is entertaining to watch (last night's game excluded).  

Look What They've Done To My Team, Ma (apologies to Melanie)

The exodus of biblical proportions continues Tyneside. The manager's gone (see below).  Gordon, Tonali, Guimaraes, Trippier, Krafth and Ramsdale are gone.  Lewis Hall may be gone soon.  Livramento will likely miss opening day with an injury, as might Lewis Miley.  Pope is likely to be demoted to back up keeper.  Transfers in include Lukas Hornicek, Sean Steur, Aladji Bamba, and Bazoumana Toure. You are forgiven if you don't recognize those names.  They are young, possibly really good players but unproven at this point.  

The starting lineup for the season opener next week versus Liverpool could look like : Hornicek (G), Burn (LB), Botman (CB), Thiaw (CB), Hall (RB), Joelinton (MC), J Murphy (MC), Bamba (MC), Barnes (LW), Elanga (RW), and Osula (ST).  That might actually represent an improved defense as Hornicek could be an upgrade over Pope.  The front line is one that we saw more than occasionally last year but was inconsistent.  The midfield frankly is just plain scary without Tonali and Guimaraes.  

I've seen a few pundits peg Newcastle for 7th but that seems highly optimistic to me.  Top 10 would be amazing from where we stand right now.

Newcastle's Season in Two Pictures

Speaking of replacements, a common thread for last year's disappointing season for the Magpies was that many of the off season acquisitions just didn't get the job done.  Was this because they were bad choices or did they have a bad year?  Courtesy of DataMB, the charts below suggest it was the latter.

This one compares Elanga 24/25 to Elanga 25/26; the blue indicates that he was a shell of his former self at Newcastle last year.  Here's Woltemade's:

Pretty much the same story for Nick.  I tried to compare Wissa but he's not even in the 25/26 data base because he played so little.  These charts do offer some hope of a bounce back season as opposed to these players simply not being good enough.  Of course, another possibility is that prior performance in another league doesn't translate into success in the EPL.

No Howe

Newcastle and Eddie Howe finally parted company last week.  The official story line is that the decision was mutual.  Probably was, at least in the sense that Howe was likely just tired of feeling unwanted.  I for one will miss him as he guided Newcastle through its most successful and entertaining period since I've been a fan.  

I think there's some chance we'll see him in charge of the England squad come the next European Championships.

Know Your EPL Gaffer

Speaking of managerial turnover, the EPL roster has many new names on it. How many managers can you match with their club?

Answers next week.  This story provides some perspective on the number of changes.  No fair reading it before you take the test.

I'll Take That Bet

Dennis and his friend Jeremy have had a standing bet on who will finish higher - Aston Villa or Wolves.  Dennis has been doing pretty well recently.  I predict that trend will continue.

Equal Opportunity Supplier

Apparently Newcastle did not want to put its thumb on the scale when it comes to the North London Derby.  Having providing Spurs with a top quality midfielder in Sandro Tonali earlier this summer, they evened things up by sending Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal.  I'll miss them both but probably Tonali more - he's just steadier where Guimaraes can be highly flammable (inflammable?) at times.

Not For Sale

Infantino: What was I thinking?
Alexander Hassenstein /Getty Images

You likely read/heard about Infantino's plan to sell shares of the World Cup. As detailed here, thanks to opposition from UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asia federation, that proposal had a shelf life of about three days.  Beyond just being rejected, the way the plan advanced has set in motion a chain of events  that could threaten Infantino's position at FIFA (story here).  And information surfaced that during his UEFA tenure a high level executive got a six figure payout upon leaving the organization; as related here, there are allegations that the executive was Infantino's mistress.  The payout has been confirmed but Infantino denies the allegations.

Many were pleased, including me, with the swift torpedoing of Infantino's plan.  But I caution that we not read into this some sort of grass roots effort to take back the game.  This was basically the second most powerful organization in football (UEFA) telling FIFA to knock it off.  

Girls Got Moves

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this clip of a UVA attacker beating four defenders before slotting the ball in the upper left corner.  

Union Activity

The U have two league matches this week - away to NYCFC on Sunday and home to Inter Miami on Wednesday.  My calendar says I have a ticket for the Miami game.  NY are 5th in the table and Miami 2nd so these will be good tests of how much the team has improved.

Bass Akwards

No "dignitaries" were cropped in this picture of Spain's
celebration (Photo: Carl Recine/Getty Images)

Somehow FIFA accidentally switched the 3rd place and championship matches.  At least in terms of entertainment value, the England - France 6-4 thriller far outdid the Spain - Argentina 1-0 hackfest.  I am not alone in that opinion.  In this NYT article that ranks all of the 104 matches, the final comes in at 102nd (ie 3rd worst) while the 3rd place contest is rated first. Fortunately, this YouTubeableMoment from Ferran Torres saved us from a World Cup winner that failed to take a shot for 117 minutes.  I'm also trying not to let the crappy final overshadow what was largely a great five plus weeks of football.  

The More the Merrier?

Opinion is divided on the wisdom of the expanded 48-team tournament.  Summarizing the arguments I think the pro side says it was good for global growth of the sport, produced some entertaining competitive surprises and certainly generated $.  The negatives suggested are diluted quality, some concerns for player welfare and some logistical strain for the host cities.  There were some blowouts but I thought overall the quality was fine (more on that below).  I'm not buying the player welfare argument as the expanded format meant only one extra match for the players, and only for those teams that advanced out of the group stage.  As for the logistics, that might have been more a function of a multi-country hosting format as opposed to an expanded format.

That said, I am skeptical of moving to a 64-team tournament.  The pros are still there but seems like the negative points will be even stronger.  Also, this World Cup was just at about the right level of saturation; not sure even the most ardent fans will be able to stay on top of a bigger tournament.

A Note On Quality

So how did the additional 16 teams do in the tournament?  Hmm, identifying the 16 teams that would not have been at this World Cup under the old 32-team format was harder than expected.  Not always obvious who wouldn't have made it because the confederation qualifying formats weren't always the same.  So here's how I did it.  CONCACAF used to get three or four but got six this year so I put Panama, Haiti and Curacao on the list.  South America used to get four or five but got six so I put Paraguay (6th in qualifying) in there.  Oceania previously didn't get an auto qualifier so New Zealand goes on the list.  UEFA got 16 instead of 13. After taking out the 12 group stage winners, Turkiye looked the best of the four who got added in the playoffs so that put Bosnia & Herzegovina, Sweden and Czechia in the mix.  Asia got nine instead of four or five so I took out Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, who "qualified" in competition after their group stage qualifiers.  I also took out Jordan, the worst performing side of the group stage runner ups who got a spot.  Africa was the toughest because they did nine groups of four and didn't take any runner ups.  I took teams out based on world ranking; sorry Cape Verde, Ghana and Tunisia.  DR Congo got in via playoff so I took them out as well.  So here's the list:

Bosnia & Herzegovina    DR Congo     Jordan                 Qatar

Cape Verde                      Ghana            New Zealand      Saudi Arabia

Curacao                            Haiti              Panama              Sweden

Czechia                            Iraq                Paraguay            Tunisia

And here are the final standings:

That 10 of the bottom 11 spots were claimed by teams that in previous years would have been watching on TV goes on the con side of the expanded tournament debate.  On the other hand, six advanced out of group stage, with Cape Verde doing it as runner up in Group H.  Also, a poor finish in the tournament doesn't mean there wasn't value to their participation, as the experience may raise the level of the game in those countries.  

Looking at individual matches, I counted nine blowouts (goal differential greater than 3) in the group stage.  All but one involved one of the 16 "added" sides.  In comparison, there were just two in 2022.  In percentage terms this year, 12.5% of the group stage games were routs compared to 4.2% in 2022.

Despite some of these stats, I'm still thinking it was a net positive to expand the tournament.  They do however increase my wariness of moving to a 64-team tournament.

New Laws

IAFB and FIFA rolled out some new laws for the tournament.  How'd that go?

Mistaken identity VAR expanded to include either team 👍 - Any rule change that gives referees a second chance to catch divers is okay with us

Manual countdown on throw-ins and goal kicks 👍 -  Another tool for referees in the continuing battle to cut down on shithousery

Mouth covering ban 👍- Mostly good with this given the number of times a covered mouth is likely giving abuse

One minute sit out for "injuries" "treated" on the pitch 👍- A net positive though we're concerned about consistency in its application

Corner kick VAR 👎- Needs symmetry - if a corner kick is such a threat to the defending team that VAR needs to verify it, then denying a corner kick on a mistaken call is just as bad for the attacking team

Substitutes have to be off in 10 second 👍- We're good with things that cut down on delaying tactics

And Another Thing...

Aside from the disappointing final there were other less than savory aspects to the tournament.  Wikipedia provides a PhD dissertation here on things that went wrong.  The articles hits some of the big points for me (prices, political interference in the game itself, political interference with the logistics and some racist behavior).  I'm disappointed and annoyed that I couldn't find reference to the homophobic chants of Mexican fans in the Ecuador and England contests.  As I've discussed in posts along the way, for me the alleged refereeing controversies were usually due to people 1) not knowing the rules, 2) not understanding the rules, 3) not liking the rules 4) all of the above.  

And yet, for all the things that went wrong, it was not the disaster I feared going in.  

Follow Up on Injury of the Tournament

Recall that Jordan Henderson broke his arm jumping over the advertising signs celebrating an English victory.  Here we see that claim being adjudicated.

Service Restored

He's back!

Kai Wagner is back for another tour of duty for the Philadelphia Union.  He's the club's all-time assist
leader and was the 2025 club leader in minutes, successful crosses, corners, and key passes.  In 2026, we have sorely missed him putting the ball in the box for good scoring chances.

We didn't have to wait long for his return to pay dividends.  His cross set up this goal for Iloski a mere nine minutes into Wednesday's match versus the Red Bulls.  He also assisted via a corner kick that newcomer Neil Pierre neatly headed in to give the U a 3-1 lead at 66 minutes.  That was the final, the U's first win at Subaru Park this year.

Neil Pierre - You can't teach height

Wagner was not the only positive development.  Quinn Sullivan returned from his 10 month absence due to a torn ACL and was quite lively down the right wing.  And we saw a center defender who might help us forget Jack Elliott and Jacob Glesnes.  Neil Pierre, just 18, was the 2025 MLS Next Pro Defender of the Year.  The club roster lists him at 6'5" but other sources say he's 6'7" - whichever, he towered over everybody.  This was also the first match under interim manager Ryan Richter.  

Aside from the win and the three points, they looked like a confident team.  The playoffs are a long shot but if they play like this, at least they'll be fun to watch the rest of the way.

I'll be taking a break for a few weeks, probably returning 8/7, in plenty of time to complain about Newcastle's transfer window and the upcoming season.

No Cup For You

Just because I wanted France and England to win doesn't mean I didn't enjoy the semis.  But a little more offense from both of them would have made the matches more interesting.

The Stifled Tower

MVH Candidate Cucurella was part 
of a defense that stifled France

Who replaced the French team we've been watching for weeks now with the uninspiring group we saw on Tuesday in the 2-0 loss to Spain?  The opening twenty minutes were inconclusive, with neither team distinguishing themselves offensively.  Lucas Digne then got called for a foul in the box, kicking Yamal in a sloppy attempt to clear the ball.  You can see the play here.  Some claim there was a Yamal handball before the kick but that simply isn't the case, as his arm is clearly tucked into his side.  Others have noted, fairly, that the play was not a goal scoring threat but is a PK simply because it happened inside the box.  

That is a known issue for the game - not all PKs are created equal.  This was early enough that France should have been able to rally but Les Bleus managed only .31 expected goals.  They looked lost.  Not enough of a tactician to know if Spain figured something out.  It is true that Spain's passing/possession ability make falling behind a bad idea.   No doubt they were the better team on Tuesday.

A Tuchel Lead Is the Most Dangerous

Djed Spence; Late entry into MVH race

England's streak of not making the final will extend to 60 years after they coughed up a 1-0 lead to Argentina.  The way they coughed up the lead is the story.  This article from The Athletic sums it up very nicely.  England got a goal against the run of play, then parked the bus and surrendered two late goals, including the game winner in stoppage time.

Recall that England protected a one goal lead with that strategy, down a man, against Mexico.  Why didn't it work here?  The short answer is that Argentina are not Mexico.  The longer answer, as discussed in the article, is that Mexico's attack consisted solely of dumping crosses into the box for Jimenez.  Five at the back made sense.  Argentina has shooters that can score from outside the box.  And, it gave Messi unfettered access to 85% of the pitch to work his magic.  The alternative would have been to become defensive but also ensure that they maintained some type of counterattacking threat to make Argentina work.  England didn't really have the personnel on the pitch to do so but it also looked like the directive would have been to stay deep anyway. So they'll play France for third place on Saturday.

What About That Parking the Bus?

BFS Lead Contractor Charlie O sends us this study on the strategy? A key passage notes:

This implies that when the leading team is playing more defensively (as suggested by having a compact convex hull), then the trailing team is more likely to take the next shot. This provides evidence that parking the bus is a poor strategy in closely contested matches.

I'll admit I didn't read every word but the problem I see with this study is that it needs to go at least two more steps.  By how much does the trailing team outscore, not outshoot, the leading team?  And more importantly, how often do teams win after parking the bus?   And, how about identifying the situations in which the strategy is more likely to be successful?  

What I like about the study is that analysts are recognizing that because pro players wear tracking monitors there is a wealth of data waiting out there for studies like this.

Now That I Have Your Attention

A popular internet meme this month has been what some wives have done to keep their husband's attention during the World Cup.  Here's a prime example.

Another internet meme, as exemplified by this article sent by BFS Ski Instructor Jeff K, has been less than stellar reviews of the Fox coverage of this tournament.  Yeah, it's better than last time but that's a low bar.  I've been mostly okay to good with the game announcers and color analysts but the studio stuff has been a thing to miss.

Finals Weekend

Opta has the "consolation" match (5 pm Saturday) at France 51%/England 25%/PKs 24%.  The final at 3 pm on Sunday is predicted at Spain 45/Argentina 26/PKs 29).  A reminder to readers not from these parts - East Rutherford is in New Jersey not New York no matter what you hear on TV.  Also, the smokey air is not New Jersey smog but was imported from Canada (thanks guys).  As for the pitch, well, they say the hot weather has greatly improved its playability.

Jeff H and I had the sobering thought that after this weekend, we go back to 1)MLS matches and 2) a team mired so far down in the standings, we are looking up at the abyss.

Four To Go

Three decent contests and a sleeper.  Since I was rooting for Morocco, Belgium, England and Switzerland, can't say the results were what I was looking for but it was entertaining.  Don't really have a lot to say, except for the "mistaken identity" kerfluffle. 

Don't Cry For Me, Argentina

It was going along swimmingly.  Switzerland had leveled the match with Argentina at 1-1 and we were set for an exciting final 20+ minutes to the quarterfinal.  Then Breel Embolo committed a brain cramp, which you can see here (I think it shows Embolo's first yellow too).  This one requires some unpacking and you will see media coverage suggesting the Swiss were hard done by this play.  Don't believe a word of it.

Get Breel: This was a dive of the worst kind
Photo: Ashley Landis, AP

The call on the field was a foul by Argentina's Paredes on Swiss striker Embolo.  This was a reckless foul in the judgment of referee Pinheiro so Paredes was shown the yellow card.  The VAR got in the ear of Pinheiro to suggest he might have shown the wrong player the yellow card.  This type of review is specifically allowed under the revision to the "mistaken identity" section of the VAR rules.  When you look at the replay, you see it was a flat out dive by Embolo with no contact from Paredes.  As was the case with Ream and Almiron in the US-Paraguay match, the yellow for Paredes was rescinded and Embolo was booked for simulation.  Unfortuntately for Embolo, he already had a yellow in this match - ironically for a reckless challenge on Paredes.  So, Embolo was sent off and the match lost its competitiveness.  The Swiss held on through regulation and the first half of added extra time but eventually Argentina broke through for two goals and a 3-1 win.

Some very sloppy wording from various publications about the incident.  Some of the headlines read that Embolo was sent off for diving.  No, he was ejected for collecting two yellow cards in the same match.  Nor was this was a "novel application" of the mistaken identity section of the VAR as suggested by The Guardian (who should know better).   It was a correct use of the revised language in the LOTG that allows the mistaken identity clause to apply to players from either side, and as noted above, the provision had already been applied in this World Cup. 

I was further surprised that all the TV analysts felt some sympathy for Embolo, suggesting this was a harsh call.  Unlucky maybe but harsh?  Mark Clattenburg basically admitted that he would not show a second yellow to a player for a dive like that.  Well, what kind of dive would it take for you to show a second yellow?  

But the Swiss coach and players reaction took the cake for me. They need to STFU.  Their defense was, um, novel?  They felt the problem was that Pinheiro never should have shown the yellow to Paredes.  If he hadn't done that, the play would not have been reviewable.  Let me get this right, the ref effed up by doing what you would have wanted had it been a real foul.  That's really rich because the reason Paredes got the yellow was that Embolo's acting job was so good that Pinheiro, who had moved upfield by the time this happened, was convinced it was a reckless challenge.  Sorry, for me Embolo messed up big time and he and his team paid dearly for it.  Side note, had the call been made correctly on the field, what would have been the result?  Right, yellow for simulation and ejection for two yellow cards.

This vilifying of VAR and the rules is nuts.  I'm thrilled that somebody really paid the price for a bullshit dive.  Two guys got nailed so far in the World Cup with this added VAR provision and I hope the pro leagues catch on that it's a great way to penalize players for this kind of shithousery.

Hair Is Thicker Than Wire?

The England - Norway match had two flash points that I can remember.  One was Norway having a goal chalked off based on a "foul" by Haaland before a corner kick was taken.  You can see the play here.  I put the word foul in quotes, not because I disagree with the call but because, technically, there can't be a foul when the ball is not in play.  However, another new VAR provision introduced by IFAB allows for the referee to require the kick to be retaken if there is a "foul."  The press release explaining the change says:

The IFAB has approved a clarification to the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) protocol for use at the 2026 FIFA World Cup regarding clear offences committed by the attacking team before the ball is in play at a corner kick or free kick that have a direct impact on a goal, penalty kick, or disciplinary sanction.

If the offence meets the criteria set out in the clarification, the VAR will recommend an on-field review, following which, if the referee determines that an offence occurred before the ball was in play, the appropriate disciplinary action will be taken and the corner kick or free kick will be retaken.

You can argue whether Haaland's action was "an offence" but for me he had momentum and both arms extended so I thought the retake was appropriate.

What to do about the other incident?  Nyland, the Norwegian keeper took a goal that ended up at the feet of England's Elliott Anderson, who started a play that ended with Jude Bellingham getting a goal.  You can sort of see the play here (it's possible the link will be taken down by FIFA before you see it as I've seen it happen at several other sites). The Norwegian claim is that the ball hit a guide wire and came straight down to Anderson.

Ball don't lie?

I didn't spend much time trying to find more video.  On the web some claim it obviously hit the wire while others are less convinced.  There was no review at the time, though it would have been a reviewable incident.  In my referee training class, we were taught not to follow the flight of the ball on high kicks but to focus our attention at the likely landing spot as that's where fouls might occur.  Without better video, I'm not sure where VAR ends up with this.  It probably would have come down to whether the sensor in the ball noted any contact.  As you can see from the video clip above, the sensor did not record any contact until Anderson touched it.  Given that the sensor picked up when the ball hit the Croatian player's hair, one would conclude there was no contact.  Either that or there was a failure of the sensor at that exact moment.  I'm not even going to get into the conspiracy theories that FIFA delayed the release of the sensor tracking until they could doctor it.   At least the Norwegians were more restrained in their post match interviews than the Swiss.

Football Is Life!

Dani Rojas (football is life), I mean Cristo Fernandez made his USL debut Saturday night.  He plays for the El Paso Locomotive FC and came in as a late substitute against New Mexico United.  Details are here.  Fernandez didn't have quite the success he enjoyed at AFC Richmond for Ted Lasso.  At least, as the NYT notes, no dogs were hurt in his appearance.  

Several have noted that despite the expanded format and the thrills and spills to this point, the top four sides have made it to the semi-finals.  We'll be rooting for Spain over France (3 pm Tuesday) and England over Argentina (3 pm Wednesday).