Four To Go

Three decent contests and a sleeper.  Since I was rooting for Morocco, Belgium, England and Switzerland, can't say the results were what I was looking for but it was entertaining.  Don't really have a lot to say, except for the "mistaken identity" kerfluffle. 

Don't Cry For Me, Argentina

It was going along swimmingly.  Switzerland had leveled the match with Argentina at 1-1 and we were set for an exciting final 20+ minutes to the quarterfinal.  Then Breel Embolo committed a brain cramp, which you can see here (I think it shows Embolo's first yellow too).  This one requires some unpacking and you will see media coverage suggesting the Swiss were hard done by this play.  Don't believe a word of it.

Get Breel: This was a dive of the worst kind
Photo: Ashley Landis, AP

The call on the field was a foul by Argentina's Paredes on Swiss striker Embolo.  This was a reckless foul in the judgment of referee Pinheiro so Paredes was shown the yellow card.  The VAR got in the ear of Pinheiro to suggest he might have shown the wrong player the yellow card.  This type of review is specifically allowed under the revision to the "mistaken identity" section of the VAR rules.  When you look at the replay, you see it was a flat out dive by Embolo with no contact from Paredes.  As was the case with Ream and Almiron in the US-Paraguay match, the yellow for Paredes was rescinded and Embolo was booked for simulation.  Unfortuntately for Embolo, he already had a yellow in this match - ironically for a reckless challenge on Paredes.  So, Embolo was sent off and the match lost its competitiveness.  The Swiss held on through regulation and the first half of added extra time but eventually Argentina broke through for two goals and a 3-1 win.

Some very sloppy wording from various publications about the incident.  Some of the headlines read that Embolo was sent off for diving.  No, he was ejected for collecting two yellow cards in the same match.  Nor was this was a "novel application" of the mistaken identity section of the VAR as suggested by The Guardian (who should know better).   It was a correct use of the revised language in the LOTG that allows the mistaken identity clause to apply to players from either side, and as noted above, the provision had already been applied in this World Cup. 

I was further surprised that all the TV analysts felt some sympathy for Embolo, suggesting this was a harsh call.  Unlucky maybe but harsh?  Mark Clattenburg basically admitted that he would not show a second yellow to a player for a dive like that.  Well, what kind of dive would it take for you to show a second yellow?  

But the Swiss coach and players reaction took the cake for me. They need to STFU.  Their defense was, um, novel?  They felt the problem was that Pinheiro never should have shown the yellow to Paredes.  If he hadn't done that, the play would not have been reviewable.  Let me get this right, the ref effed up by doing what you would have wanted had it been a real foul.  That's really rich because the reason Paredes got the yellow was that Embolo's acting job was so good that Pinheiro, who had moved upfield by the time this happened, was convinced it was a reckless challenge.  Sorry, for me Embolo messed up big time and he and his team paid dearly for it.  Side note, had the call been made correctly on the field, what would have been the result?  Right, yellow for simulation and ejection for two yellow cards.

This vilifying of VAR and the rules is nuts.  I'm thrilled that somebody really paid the price for a bullshit dive.  Two guys got nailed so far in the World Cup with this added VAR provision and I hope the pro leagues catch on that it's a great way to penalize players for this kind of shithousery.

Hair Is Thicker Than Wire?

The England - Norway match had two flash points that I can remember.  One was Norway having a goal chalked off based on a "foul" by Haaland before a corner kick was taken.  You can see the play here.  I put the word foul in quotes, not because I disagree with the call but because, technically, there can't be a foul when the ball is not in play.  However, another new VAR provision introduced by IFAB allows for the referee to require the kick to be retaken if there is a "foul."  The press release explaining the change says:

The IFAB has approved a clarification to the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) protocol for use at the 2026 FIFA World Cup regarding clear offences committed by the attacking team before the ball is in play at a corner kick or free kick that have a direct impact on a goal, penalty kick, or disciplinary sanction.

If the offence meets the criteria set out in the clarification, the VAR will recommend an on-field review, following which, if the referee determines that an offence occurred before the ball was in play, the appropriate disciplinary action will be taken and the corner kick or free kick will be retaken.

You can argue whether Haaland's action was "an offence" but for me he had momentum and both arms extended so I thought the retake was appropriate.

What to do about the other incident?  Nyland, the Norwegian keeper took a goal that ended up at the feet of England's Elliott Anderson, who started a play that ended with Jude Bellingham getting a goal.  You can sort of see the play here (it's possible the link will be taken down by FIFA before you see it as I've seen it happen at several other sites). The Norwegian claim is that the ball hit a guide wire and came straight down to Anderson.

Ball don't lie?

I didn't spend much time trying to find more video.  On the web some claim it obviously hit the wire while others are less convinced.  There was no review at the time, though it would have been a reviewable incident.  In my referee training class, we were taught not to follow the flight of the ball on high kicks but to focus our attention at the likely landing spot as that's where fouls might occur.  Without better video, I'm not sure where VAR ends up with this.  It probably would have come down to whether the sensor in the ball noted any contact.  As you can see from the video clip above, the sensor did not record any contact until Anderson touched it.  Given that the sensor picked up when the ball hit the Croatian player's hair, one would conclude there was no contact.  Either that or there was a failure of the sensor at that exact moment.  I'm not even going to get into the conspiracy theories that FIFA delayed the release of the sensor tracking until they could doctor it.   At least the Norwegians were more restrained in their post match interviews than the Swiss.

Football Is Life!

Dani Rojas (football is life), I mean Cristo Fernandez made his USL debut Saturday night.  He plays for the El Paso Locomotive FC and came in as a late substitute against New Mexico United.  Details are here.  Fernandez didn't have quite the success he enjoyed at AFC Richmond for Ted Lasso.  At least, as the NYT notes, no dogs were hurt in his appearance.  

Several have noted that despite the expanded format and the thrills and spills to this point, the top four sides have made it to the semi-finals.  We'll be rooting for Spain over France (3 pm Tuesday) and England over Argentina (3 pm Wednesday). 

A Decidedly Mixed Bag

Noticeable variation in the quality of the Round of 16 matches, ranging from sleep-inducing (e.g. Spain - Portugal) to annoying (France - Paraguay) to riveting (Mexico - England).  

If It's Tuesday, We Must Have Lost to Belgium (apologies to Mel Stuart)

A tournament that had started so well for the USMNT ended with an inglorious thud.  Except for Tillman's free kick, there was no aspect of the US game that wasn't up to snuff in the 4-1 loss to Belgium.  Let's see.  Poor marking? Check. Inaccurate passing? Check. Easily dispossessed? Check. Keeper howler? Check. Lack of intensity?  Check.  I'm sure I missed other things but you get the picture. I'm skipping a personal post mortem but I suggest this analysis from ESPN. BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W also sends along this assessment from sports psychologist Steve Magness; key phrase for me was that the US play was "hesitant and avoidant."

Two Wrongs Don't Make A Wright

In the last post we outlined how improper use of VAR got Folarin Balogun suspended for the match with Belgium.  He got reinstated by improper intervention from the White House; the sordid details are here.  Aside from attracting unwanted attention and giving the Belgians an added desire to kick the USMNT's butt, it also meant that Haji Wright would not make his first start in this World Cup.  The Belgians did not miss the opportunity to be snarky in post-match posts on social media.  Frankly, they can snark away after that bullshit move by the White House and FIFA.  Trump and his gang took the USMNT from a loveable underdog into a villain that the rest of world could not wait to see unceremoniously dumped from the tournament.

France Won By Not Being Provocated

If you can't beat them with talent, try shithousery
Photo: Buda Mendes/Getty Images

It's not a word Zlatan but we did understand what you meant.  Paraguay apparently decided their only hope of advancing against France was to go full 90 minute shithousery.  Push, pull, elbow, etc at every opportunity.  To some extent, it did work to slow the vaunted French attack, as Les Bleus could only manage a PK from Mbappe.   Paraguay were so interested in the extracurricular bullshit that they managed just five shots, one on target for an xG of .13.  This is not my beautiful game.  Made me ashamed that I was initially rooting for them to pull off an upset.  Good on the French for not being derailed by these tactics.  A more complete detailing of what went down is available here, including a discussion of how the referee's absolutely clueless game management allowed the shithousery to reach epic proportions.  

In Contrast - Mexico vs England

Referee Alireza Faghani handled an incredibly tough
assignment brilliantly (Photo:Reuters)

Make no mistake, the defensive tactics in this match were just as aggressive as France - Paraguay, but with two key differences.  For the most part, the challenges were hard but fair and in the context of the game.  Even the red card for Quansah, while clearly excessive force, wasn't malicious (though we note the use of slow motion replay again to assess intensity of the challenge).  Second, referee Alireza Faghani mostly managed the game superbly.  Not only did he get three key calls correct (Quansah sending off, PK for Gordon, PK on Kane), he made it clear that he was not going to put up with bullshit from either side.  The result - we could focus on a great soccer match.

And a hell of a match it was.  England went up two on a brace by Bellingham.  Quinones got one back by half time.  The Quansah sending off looked to have England in a pickle until Gordon got fouled in the box and the PK was neatly converted by Kane.  Harry then returned the favor with a foul of his own in the box so it was 3-2 at 70 minutes.  Mexico spent those last minutes dumping cross after cross into the box with no success - either wildly overhit, straight into Pickford's or turned away by the defense (nice work from Newcastle's Dan Burn).  So England survived the onslaught and advanced to the quarterfinals.

Spineless FIFA Part II

Mexican fans were up to their old crap of shouting a homophobic chant every time Jordan Pickford took a goal kick.  News reports confirm they did it in the Czechia and Ecuador matches as well.  Recall that FIFA has a three step protocol for dealing with this - pause, suspend, abandon.  No trace of any application of this policy so far, which sounds like par for the course for FIFA.

Admissible Evidence For VAR

Critics of VAR are having a field day with the disallowed Egyptian goal against Argentina.  You can see the play here.  Commentator Rob Green nearly lost his shit over the call; "A hundred yards away, someone stepping on someone's toe, is not why VAR was brought into the game."  Actually, it is, as you can see if you read the VAR Protocol section of IFAB's Laws of the Game.  Three relevant passages from that publication include:

The period of play before and after an incident that can be reviewed is determined by the Laws of the Game and VAR protocol.

Reviewable decisions include attacking team offence in the build-up to or scoring of the goal (handball, foul, offside etc.)

For decisions/incidents relating to goals, penalty/no penalty and red cards for denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity (DOGSO), it may be necessary to review the attacking phase of play which led directly to the decision/incident; this may include how the attacking team gained possession of the ball in open play

Green minimized the foul and at first I saw his point; except not only did he step on the player's foot, he pulled his shirt.  The foul resulted in a change of possession.  The goal was scored 18 seconds after the foul in a flowing move that involved a long solo run and two excellent passes.  The change of possession led to a single attacking play that resulted in a goal.  It meets all the criteria for a reviewable play and Attia's shirt pull gave the opening to the referee to call a foul.  The quality of the goal is irrelevant though it certainly adds to the disappointment.  I will note that several current or former referees don't like the call, largely based on how Argentina had chances to break up the attack and were unable to.  Dr Joe Machnik, who's opinion I often disagree with, offers a pretty cogent argument for the plaintiff here.

Injury of the Tournament

England announced that Jordan Henderson is out for the rest of the tournament after sustaining an injury in the win over Mexico.  How's that?  I thought he didn't even play, although he managed to get himself a yellow card for shenanigans warming up near the touch line as a sub.  Apparently, he injured his wrist while falling as he climbed over the advertising boards in the post match celebration.  He had surgery and is done for this World Cup. 

He Didn't Even Need An MRI

This image was enough for Dennis to render a diagnosis

Within seconds of Amadou Onana leaving the pitch with the injury Dennis texted "Onana gonna miss the start of the season; calling it now."  After the match, the Belgium team doctor announced that he had ruptured his ACL.  That injury typically keeps a player sidelined for six to nine months.  Dennis correctly assessed the situation without the aid of an MRI, CT scan or any other imaging diagnostics.  Think of how much money we could save the health care system if we substituted his visual assessment over conventional and expensive imaging techniques.

Conversation That Sort Of Took Place

Dennis:  Why did Switzerland have Xhaka lead off in the penalty shoot out against Colombia?

Steve: Because you never want anyone to take the first shot for Granit.

Hourglass Is Not A Number

I guess you could figure out that's an "8"

Perhaps you've notice the "rune - style" numbers on the Norwegian kit.  As explained here, the numbers are based on the Elder Futhark.  That is not the name of Norwegian center back from the 1950s but rather the name of the oldest form of a runic alphabet.  This version was approved by FIFA; the 2024 version was deemed to be unreadable.  Looking at Sander Berge's number eight, I'm not sure this was that much of an improvement.

Conversation That Absolutely Did Take Place

Dennis: I see that Newcastle are trying to bring in an injured defender [Johan Manzambi]. Makes sense to skip the part where he gets hurt while playing for you.

Steve: Takes the guess work out of it.

That's some mane (Photo: Jerome Hicks/SipaUSA

MVH Candidate

BFS Director of Historical Programs Mackenzie W offers Marc Cucurella as a Most Valuable Hair candidate.

And Now the Quarterfinals

Matches Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Here's the line up, with the Opta prediction in parentheses ("home" team percentage chance to win/"visiting" team percentage chance to win/percent chance of play ending in a draw requiring a PK shootout):.

Thursday 4 pm - France vs Morocco (61.7/15.6/22.7)

Friday 3 pm - Spain vs Belgium (59.3/18.3/22.4)

Saturday 5 pm - Norway vs England ((25.5/50.1/24.5)

Saturday 9 pm - Argentina vs Switzerland (58.7//17.2/24.1)

I'm a bit surprised at the magnitude by which France are favored, basically the biggest overdog in the set.  Looks like I'm rooting for three underdogs and England. That said, I'd be okay with Norway advancing to the semis.  

Shameless Self- and Cross- Promotion

I’m still making music with my friend Chris Zimmerman, recording as Dreamer Lens. It took a while to finish but our latest album is now available at Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Pandora, YouTube Music etc. to stream or download. It’s called 66 (inspired by true events) and features original ambient/electronic/soundtrack songs recorded at Chris’s fully equipped, professional home studio. The album started as a three-hour improv/jam session that we edited down to 14 songs and 49 minutes, changing some of the sounds on the original recorded tracks and overdubbing some additional instrument tracks.

Chris and I hope you’ll give it a listen.

Hey, the World Cup has been littered with annoying commercial breaks, it was inevitable that it would happen here.

Only eight matches left.

Wild Ride

The first ever Round of 32 produced a slew of wild matches and some interesting calls.  I count 10 of the 16 contests being decided after the 85 minute mark.  There were some yawners in there but overall this was great viewing.

Less Than Their Best

Balogun scores again for the USMNT

The USMNT were in the rare position of being the favorite in a knockout round.  And mostly they justified that role against Bosnia & Herzegovina, but it wasn't easy.  Late in a less than crisp first half, Folarin Balogun put the US up, taking deflected pass from Tillman and deftly (though not necessarily prettily) putting into the net.  The second half got way more interesting in the wrong way when Balogun got a straight red card for an unfortunate tackle (see Tough Calls below).  BIH had never really threatened and in fact didn't even do that much after the sending off.  Still, we know a one goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.

Then, at 82 minutes Malik Tillman doubled the lead with an "improbable" free kick from just outside the box; we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment (see Dr. Tillman below for more details).  That moved the last 15 or so minutes out of the "squeaky bum" territory and into a more comfortable place.    

No doubt this was a test of character which the US passed with flying colors.  Perhaps I'm greedy but I would have preferred seeing them beat a lesser opponent like BIH by simply playing better soccer.  They will surely need to do so against Belgium.  And please stop calling me Shirley.

Dr. Tillman I Presume

When the US were awarded the free kick just outside the box late in the second half, my initial reaction
was that this was just too close to goal to have a realistic chance of scoring.  Thanks to BFS Artistic Director Laura O for sending along this analysis of the physics involved and exactly how difficult this shot was.  Dennis and I both noticed something else about the play.  Check out the replay and you'll see that BIH did not have a "draft excluder" lying down behind the wall and that the wall barely jumped.  That may have provided the tiny window for Tillman to slip the ball through on goal.

The Coach Wore Jeans Again

Brito sticks with the jeans. Well,
 it was Friday (photo Amanda Perobelli

Cape Verde is the story that keeps on giving.  In their Round of 32 match against Argentina, they took the defending champions to added extra time, conceding the deciding goal at 111 minutes. They came back from one goal deficits twice, including once in added extra time on this golazo from Cabral (Dennis tells me it's worth .03 xG).  Even after conceding the go-ahead goal, the Blue Sharks kept battling and forced a critical save from Argentine keeper Emi Martinez.  Fantastic viewing.  And the coach wore jeans again. 

"Conversation" That Did Take Place

Dennis (at the 70th minute of Argentina - Cape Verde with the score 1-1): OG gonna get the game winner.  [Initially Romero was credited with the game winner but it was changed to an own goal.]

Nein

After Germany's PK loss to Paraguay, it emerged that four players passed on taking the sixth kick.  Details are here.  As noted in the article, the guy who did step up (Tah) had never taken a PK before.  Of course, it might not have gotten to this without the disallowed goal for Germany (see Tough Calls below).

Newcastle Players Reverting to Form?

No heroics from Magpies this week.  To wit:

- Woltemade missed his PK for Germany

- Wissa did have an assist but hit the post on a shot that would have put Congo up two

- Elanga quiet for Sweden

- Thiaw was one of the players who passed on taking a PK for Germany 

Tough Calls

Three stand out for me.

1) Germany had a goal disallowed in added extra time for a foul against the keeper.  Here's that play.  While we generally think keepers get too much deference in calls where there's a legitimate challenge for the ball, this is not one of those situations.  The German player was not moving in an attempt to play the ball but took steps toward the keeper specifically to impede his progress.  Plus, Rules Analyst Mark Clattenburg (who you can here at the end of the clip) noted that the referee was following specific advice given to officials before the tournament on how to handle that situation.  Correct call for me.

2) Then we have Balogun's  red card; you can see the play here. Before diving in, I'll admit that I could be biased on this one.  I don't think the challenge involved excessive force.  Whether it could constitute dangerous play is a tougher question.  I don't think so and neither did Rules Analyst Mark Clattenburg.  Real time the referee did not, as he didn't even call a foul.  VAR sent him to the monitor and he changed his mind.  No doubt, when you see the slow motion replay, the challenge looks worse and you can see how one might conclude it was dangerous play.  But this is where a second factor comes in; VAR protocols say you are not supposed to use slow motion for this situation as outlined in The Laws of the Game.  The relevant passage is:

 

• The referee can request different cameras angles/replay speeds but, in general, slow motion replays should only be used for facts, e.g. position of offence/player, point of contact for physical offences and handball, ball out of play (including goal/no goal); normal speed should be used for the ‘intensity’ of an offence or to decide if it was a handball offence

If the decision on the field had been red card, I'd be okay with the reversal.  But for me this was inappropriate use of VAR.  

3) Croatia had a stoppage time equalizer against Portugal ruled out for offside. You can see that play here. This one was a difficult because at the time of the first kick, the Croatian attacker was onside.  However, there was a question about an intervening touch as the ball made its way to that attacker.  If there was a touch, the play was offside, if there wasn't the goal would stand.

Sensor Don't Lie

To the monitor went the referee.  However, he would not be relying on just video evidence.  The ball used in the World Cup has a sensor to detect the slightest of touches; as you can see from the picture left, there was a touch so the goal was ruled out.

Correct but cruel is the only description for this decision.  BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W wondered whether this was what the rule was intended to address.  Probably yes but a fair question to ask.  Along those lines, I'll ask whether we think the call would have been different without the sensor.  The video looked inconclusive to me and the guidance would have been to leave the call alone.  In other words, as Ian Malcolm would ask, do we need this level of precision?

More Please

The pace will slow down now, with just two matches a day for the Round of 16.  Most of these matches make sense in terms of rankings, with two glaring exceptions.  That would be Portugal - Spain (Iberian Derby) and Mexico - England.  The matches with rankings in parentheses are below:

Canada (30) - Morocco (6)

Paraguay (34) - France (1)

Brazil (5) - Norway (21)

Mexico (10) - England (4)

Portugal (7) - Spain (3)

USA (16) - Belgium (9)

Argentina (2) - Egypt (24)

Switzerland (15) - Colombia (11)

Maybe the England-Mexico match isn't out of line, as Mexico are not one of the top eight remaining sides.   

We get our first day off on Wednesday.

Keeping Up

Match Day 3 was crammed into four days of six matches each.  You are forgiven if it's largely blur.  I feel that way.  Let's see what I remember.

No Need For the Fainting Couch

Yes, the US lost to Turkiye on a last second goal. The match had no relevance in the standings or future match ups.  The US held out nine first team players.  Here are my takeaways:

- the second string played a good match against a strong side and were seconds from getting a draw

- Pulisic returned from injury and looked dangerous in his second half minutes

- the US may be a little thin on the back line

- I don't see this as a momentum killer

Relax.

Back to The Linc Philadelphia Stadium

Four Yanks in a sea of Croats and Ghanians
From l: Jim, Rob, Mark, Steve

One more trip to South Philly, this time to see Croatia - Ghana.  Since both sides would advance with a 0-0 draw, we were a little concerned about the pace of play in the opening minutes.  A first half goal from Croatia offered some hope of more lively play.  It certainly shook up the Group L standings, moving Croatia to the top ahead of England (who were stuck in a 0-0 draw with Panama) and dropping Ghana to third.  

The second half featured much more action and Ghana leveled the match at 73 minutes, moving them back into second.  Croatia responded 10 minutes later with another go-ahead goal.  Unfortunately for them, England had moved ahead of Panama so this only got them to second.  It ended that way with both advancing to the knockout stage.

Great atmosphere again.  Both teams had huge fan blocs at either end of the stadium but partisan fans were out in force throughout the stadium.  

On the Whole, They'd Rather Be Playing in Philadelphia

Yeah, I know that's not the quote but hopefully Ivory Coast will be singing the praises of the City of Brotherly Love after getting two wins and six points from their matches at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium.  They move on to face Norway in the Round of 32

Plus The Coach Wore Jeans

Cape Verde coach Brito goes dress down Friday
Photo: AP/PTI

Cape Verde is a cool story from the group stage.  Ranked 64th in the world, the Blue Sharks snatched second place in Group H by drawing each of the more highly ranked opponents, including Spain and Uruguay.  This from a nation of just over 500,000 people.  It's like if our Congressional District (PA-3rd covering NW Philly, West Philly and parts of Center City) was a country and we had an international soccer team competing against all the big boys. And their coach, Pedro Leitao Brito, hopefully started a new fashion standard for managers by wearing jeans; takes me back to my CHYSC coaching days.

When Things Are Going Bad

The final match of group stage featured Algeria vs Austria.  Winner would advance, loser would go home; if it was a draw, both sides advanced.  Which meant somebody would get bumped from the last third place spot.  That would be Iran.  So Austria goes up 1-0.  We're in! Algeria levels it.  We're out.  Austria goes ahead again.  We're in! Algeria equalize again.   We're out.  Now neither team looks very interested taking any chances so Iran is most likely done.  Except at 90+3, Algeria stunningly take the lead 3-2 and Iran are back in and with maybe 1-2 minutes to play, surely they are in to stay.  Not so fast.  And please don't call me Shirley.  At 90+6, Austria leveled things again with this goal.  So Austria are in, Iran out.  It's been that kind of year for them.

That'll Leave A Mark

Rules Analyst Mark Clattenburg has been unsparing in his criticism of his former brethren.  He does not hesitate to point out mistakes and what he sees as poor judgment, especially with respect to managing the level of physicality through calling fouls and using cards.  I've already forgotten which referee he was assessing at the time but the quote was "they know the rules but don't understand the game."  Ouch.

Oh No He Dint

We better see this kind of stuff from Wissa when 
he puts back on his Newcastle kit

This is really starting to piss me off.  Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scored two for DR Congo in their dramatic comeback win over Ubekistan.  In three matches, he's tripled his Premier League output for the Magpies.

Who's Out

So sixteen teams are done.

It Was Always A Long Shot - Haiti, New Zealand, Curacao, Jordan, Qatar, Iraq, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan

A "Son-in-law Experience" (as in you were hoping for better) - Czechia, Panama, Scotland, Iran

Heads Will Roll - Uruguay, Turkiye, South Korea

Not All Round of 32 Fixtures Are Alike

In theory the groups were seeded with the proper distribution of good, bad and ugly teams.  I don't know exactly how the first knockout round matches were set but there are some "interesting" fixtures.  If they were truly seeded, you'd see teams with the better rankings facing those with worse rankings.  Sometimes that's the case, but not always;  Here are the matchups with their FIFA rankings:

South Africa (54) - Canada (32)

Brazil (5) - Japan (17)

Germany (12) - Paraguay (37)

Netherlands (7) - Morocco (6)

Ivory Coast (30) - Norway (23)

France (1) - Sweden (36)

Mexico (9) - Ecuador (24)

England (4) - Congo (41)

Belgium (10) - Senegal (18)

US (15) - Bosnia & Herzegovina (61)

Spain (3) - Austria (22)

Portugal (8)- Croatia (13)

Switzerland (16) - Algeria (29)

Australia (28) - Egypt (26)

Argentina (2) - Cape Verde (64)

Colombia (11) - Ghana (65)

One of these is clearly not like the others.  The Netherlands vs Morocco is a match up involving two sides that both could arguably have been quarterfinalists.  Brazil vs Japan and Belgium vs Senegal look pretty tough too.  In the opposite direction, you have South Africa vs Canada, Ivory Coast vs Norway and Australia vs Egypt that ensure some teams with weaker rankings will at least make it to the round of 16. I think the US sort of benefited in this way as well.  Also, it seemed kind of weird that by finishing second in Group J got you Spain but third got you Switzerland.  

These 16 matches play out over the next six days.  Sunday is light with one but then three a day through Friday.  We have a day off coming on July 8 so hang on until then.

Who's In?

Matchday 2 took 8,245,731 scenarios off the table, leaving 4,127,463 possibilities for the third round of group stage matches.  We will review them after discussing the latest results.  Again, swamped with information and things are running together even more than last week.  We will do what we can.

We Will Not Be Outphysicaled (term coined by a Masterman English teacher so it's okay)

After fashioning a nifty 2-0 halftime lead on Australia, the USMNT did not back down in the second half as the taller and bigger Socceroos substantially upped the physicality.  As with Paraguay, the US play in the second half was nothing to write home about but it was good enough to preserve the 2-0 win and claim first place in Group D.  

Alex Freeman heads in the second goal for the US
Photo: AP Photo/Maddy Grassy

An early own goal helped but as we have pointed out in the past, not all own goals are blind luck.  If the Aussie defender had not tried to intercept the cross from Balogun, surely Pepi would have put it in the net.  And stop calling me Shirley.  The second goal was initially ruled offside but VAR intervened to confirm that 1)Freeman was not in an offside position when the initial shot was taken and 2) Balogun, who was in an offside position, did not block Beach's vision or interfere with ability to try to make the save.

Oh, and they won with Pulisic out due to injury.  The win clinched first place in Group D and a date on July 1 with one of the third place finishers.

Conversation That Took Place

Scott F: Lol, I go to the bathroom and not even 30 seconds later they score

Steve: Stay there?

Later

Scott F: Okay, so if it's more than 30 seconds after I get back, it's offside?

Steve: Nope, that's going to count

Scott F: So I'm 2 for 2

Steve: Keep drinking so you have to keep going

Scott F: Yes, people are offering to buy me more drinks

The Wettest World Cup Match Ever

The view from Section C40 Row 18, which was
 much drier than Section C40, Row 15

Or so we are told anyway.  BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W and I ventured to The Linc  Philadelphia Stadium fully aware of the approaching thunderstorms.  Fortunately, the first downpour occurred while we were circling the stadium looking for the entrance to the VIP parking lot that Michael B had scored from a friend.  The next downpour started late in the first half; again we were lucky that our seats were just far enough back that we stayed dry.  The storm continued so the start of the second half was delayed by 90+ minutes.

Great atmosphere again.  I was a bit surprised at the size of the Iraqi crowd, who basically occupied the entire south end of the stadium.  The France supporters, though probably greater in number than the Iraqis, were spread throughout the rest of the stadium so they didn't sound as loud; they were however just as vocal.  The rain and delay in no way dampened the enthusiasm of the crowd and the energy right before the kickoff of the delayed second half was amazing.  

Tickets were on Jack (thanks buddy) so I picked up the food and drink tab.  Despite paying for $25 beers, $20 chicken tenders and high prices for other assorted items, I am still way ahead on that deal.

The match?  Pretty tepid first half that saw Iraq defend well and go in at half time just down 0-1.  Unfortunately an awful mistake at the back (see below) early in the second half put to rest any hope of the result for the underdogs.

Howlers

There have been a bunch.  I can remember two specific fu mess-ups. South Korea surrendered an unfortunate goal to Mexico on a mistake by keeper Kim Seung-gyu, which you can see here.  Since the final was 1-0 Mexico, that was a killer.  In another example, Iraq had been doing a great job frustrating France and were only down 0-1 early in the second half.  Then they had this mistake in the back that gave Mbappe an easy tap in for his second goal of the night.  Like he needs help getting goals, right?  I know there have been others but these were the two that come to mind.

Early Nominee for Best Hair

Tahith Chong makes case for Most Valuable Hair

We've seen some possibilities.  Mackenzie mentioned Yan Diamonde of Ivory Coast.  I saw Ayyoub Bouaddi of Morocco as another choice, though Mackenzie wasn't convinced.  My leading candidate right now is Curacao's Tahith Chong.

Almiron Providing Instructional Videos on Recent Law Changes

Almiron red carded: Didn't your parents teach you not
to cover your mouth when you slur (Photo: ITV)

Recall that against the US, Miguel Almiron became the first player to "benefit" from the revision to the mistaken identity clause in the VAR language that expanded its application to cover players from the non-offending team.  In Friday's match, he became the first player to be red carded for the "don't cover your mouth when you slur" provision.  I'll admit this one caught me by surprise.  I read IFAB's review of the 26-27 law changes and this is not mentioned, nor is it listed in the language for Law 12 (Fouls and Misconduct).  However, there were numerous articles that did mention the rule change.  There was an announcement on the IFAB website; the key language is provided below:

Players covering their mouths in situations of confrontation with opponents

At the discretion of the competition organiser, any player covering their mouth in a confrontational situation with an opponent may be sanctioned with a red card.

 The announcers were aware of it and certainly the Turkiye players knew, as they pointed at Miggie as soon as he did it.  Somehow Paraguay, up 1-0 at the time, managed to keep the score that way despite playing more than half the match a man down.

Oh Miggie, where did your parents go wrong?  Unless Paraguay advance, he will not have a chance to violate any of the other new rules.

Hahahaland and Embop

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this remake of the Key role call butchering names.

Fun With Geometry

BFS Director of Historic Programs Mackenzie W sends along this story about the geometry and physics behind this year's World Cup ball.  Hmm, weird ball movement might be responsible for some of the howlers we've seen.

Not Funny

Last week it was Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scoring for DR Congo against Portugal.  This week it was Newcastle disappointment Anthony Elanga scoring for Sweden against the Netherlands.  The two combined for a total of one goal in the 25-26 Premier League season and now have two in four WC matches.  

 What We Know

Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have won their groups.  France, Norway and Colombia are guaranteed to advance.  Turkiye, Haiti, Tunisia, Panama and Jordan are out.

What About Third Place? (Danger: Wonkiness Ahead)

Before looking at the groups, we start with an assessment of what might be enough for third place teams to advance to the knockout stage.  Based on a review of each group's standings, I can only find five groups for which third place is guaranteed to have at least three points.  The flip side of that is that, right now, it's possible two points would be enough to get you to the knock out phase.  It's not as unlikely as you'd think.  Check it out:

Group A - If Mexico beat Czechia and Korea beat South Africa, third place has one point

Group B - If Qatar and Bosnia draw, third place has two points

Group E - If Germany beat Ecuador and Ivory Coast beat Curacao, third place has one point

Group G - If Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran, third place has one point

Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia, third place has two points

Group I - If Senegal and Iraq draw, third place has two points

Group K - If Congo and Uzbekistan draw, third place has two points

Individually, none of these sound outrageous to me.  However, at least five of them have to happen for two points to be enough.  So I guess it's still kind of a long shot. 

On the opposite end, does four points guarantee you'll advance?  Looks like no.  I found scenarios in every group but one (I) in which third place could have at least four points.  Check it out:

Group A - Czechia beat Mexico

Group B - Qatar and Bosnia don't draw

Group C - Scotland beat or draw with Brazil

Group D - Australia and Paraguay draw

Group E - Ecuador beat Germany

Group F - Sweden and Japan draw

Group G - Iran beat Egypt and New Zealand -Belgium isn't a draw

Group H - Uruguay beat Spain and Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia isn't a draw

Group J - Austria and Algeria draw

Group K - Congo beat Uzbekistan

Group L - Croatia beat or draw with Panama

Individually, some of these seem like long shots.  Collectively, nine of these would have to happen for for four points not to be enough.  

Teams that play later in the process will have a better idea of what it will take, as some of these scenarios will resolve.

What To Watch

So, what to watch, remembering that the last group stage matches kick off at the same time.  Unless you're going with multiple screens (two computers, computer and phone, two phones, tablet and phone, etc) you can only watch one.

Group A - Mexico have won Group A.  Everybody else has a chance to finish anywhere from second to last.  I'm going to guess that the South Korea vs South Africa (who have to win to have any chance of advancing) match will be more interesting than Mexico vs Czechia (who also have to win to have any chance of advancing).

Group B -The winner of Canada- Switzerland will finish first in the group; a draw means Canada advance while Switzerland finish second.  As noted above, Qatar and Bosnia need a win.  I'm going with Canada vs Switzerland; the latter, sitting on four points, might advance even with a loss.

Group C - Brazil, Morocco and Scotland can finish anywhere from first to third.  Guessing that Morocco - Haiti will be less competitive than Brazil - Scotland.

Group D - US has clinched first and Turkiye fourth so the neutral would go with Australia vs Paraguay.  The Aussies get second with a win or draw.

Group E - Curacao haven't been as helpless as expected but I'd still go with Germany - Ecuador over Curacao - Ivory Coast.

Group F - Netherlands are not guaranteed a spot yet but are expected to handle Tunisia so I'm going with Sweden vs Japan since they're level with three points.

Group G - This one is tougher but I'd go with New Zealand - Belgium over Egypt - Iran

Group H - Uruguay have been disappointing and Spain may have figured some things out so the Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia match may have more drama.

Group I - Though Senegal and Iraq have a lot at stake (each needs to win to have any chance to advance), I'm going with France - Norway; France get first in the group with a win or draw.  Plus it's a chance to see Hahahaland and Embop.

Group J - Austria - Algeria, each with three points, is the choice here over Argentina - Jordan.  Austria have the tie breaker.

Group K - Colombia - Portugal is a cool match up of heavyweights with first place in the group at stake; Portugal need the win to capture first.  DR Congo can get to four points with a win over Uzbekistan but I'd still go with the heavyweights.

Group L - My choice is made here as I will be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium for Croatia - Ghana.   Croatia, a point behind Ghana, will be more interested in a win.  On the other hand, Ghana, with the right result in the England - Panama match, could win the group.  

Yikes that was wonky.  And it's late so this doesn't even have the low level proofing I sometimes do.  There's no editor here right now.  Total chaos in the BFS offices.  Just keep watching.  It's been a pretty good show so far.

Round One

Twenty four matches down.  Frankly, things are starting to run together.  I did see more games than I expected so I have a pile of observations with no rhyme or reason.

Who Are Those Guys? (apologies to Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid)

Was that really the USMNT out there Friday night against Paraguay?  The final was 4-1 but it wasn't really that close.  Watching it, the US dominance was clear.  The stats agree with shots at 17/8, shots on target 6/2. possession 63/37 and expected goals 1.42/.54  (that last one seems light, though maybe because the first goal was an OG).  So often, for me anyway, when the US win it feels like it's because they were better athletes.  This time I thought they were simply better soccer players than the opposition.   We'll make Gio Reyna's stoppage time goal this week's YouTubeableMoment because it demonstrates how the US controlled the match; yes, it was 26 consecutive passes to set up the lovely outside of the foot shot from Reyna.

A Sea of Yellow

Me and Dennis and 65,000 Ecuadorians

Dennis and I were lucky enough to be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium Sunday night for the Ecuador Ivory Coast match (thanks David C).  Attendance was over 68,000, of which at 65,000 were Ecuadorian, or at the very least, rooting for Ecuador.  It was a sea of yellow.  Great fans before, during and after.  Clearly a disappointed group on the packed subway ride home but nothing like it could have been if it was, say, an Eagles crowd.

Decent match for a low scoring affair, with Ivory Coast getting the lone goal late in the second half.  I had a slight rooting edge for them but would have loved to have seen the pandemonium that would have ensued had Ecuador scored.  A fantastic experience.

IFAB Law Changes

Just in time for the World Cup, IFAB enacted a series of rule changes entitled the Anti-shithousery Initiative.  That's not what it says on the website but trust me, it's what they mean.  Key amendments include:

- referee can start a count of five on throw-ins and goal kicks if he believes they are taking too long; the sanction is throw-in or corner kick to the other team

- players have 10 seconds to get off the field after being substituted

- players who receive assessment or treatment on the field have to go off the pitch for a minute

Some other changes:

- ARs watches buzz for offside based on semi-automated technology

- VAR can intervene for cases of possible mistaken identity in showing cards to players of either team, not just the offending team (that one has already come into play - see Mistaken Identify below)

- an incorrectly awarded corner kick can be overturned by VAR

A little less than thrilled about the asymmetry of the last one.  Kind of like refs not showing a red card for fear of having too much an effect on the result.  Well if mistakenly giving a corner is risky for the defense, not calling one is just a big a deal for the offense.

Never Too Late

Jimenez got a little tearful after scoring versus South Africa
Photo:AP

At 35, Raul Jimenez made his first ever World Cup start in the tournament's opening match between Mexico and South Africa.  He would also get his first ever World Cup goal.  That sounded so strange until you see that, despite his veteran status, he had made just six substitute appearances in the three previous cups.  It was an emotional moment for him, partly reflecting the long comeback from his skull fracture but also the loss of his father a few months ago.

 

Truth in Advertising

It only took two matches to get really tired of the three minute commercial interruption mid-way through each half.  Dennis points out that when the pause is sponsored by Powerade, it's called an Hydration Break but when Lenovo is paying for it, they call it a  Match Break; he notes that at least the latter label "gives up any pretense that they are for the players."

Aside from an being unnecessary interruption, it can affect the flow of the game in favor of one team or the other.  On Sunday, Ecuador had finally found some momentum, getting a few scoring opportunities in quick succession.  Next thing we know, it's time for the commercial break and Ecuador lost the thread.

A Case of Mistaken Identity

Long-time readers of the blog know we are big fans of Miguel Almiron.  That said, we were thrilled to see him get booked for simulation in the match against the US.  You can see the play here.  This was not your average BFS though.  First, the initial call was foul and yellow card on Ream for the "tackle."  The VAR got in referee's ear and suggested he might want to look at the play based on him possibly showing the card to the wrong player.  Looking at the replay, you could see that Ream never touched Almiron, who dove anyway.  So the yellow on Ream was rescinded and transferred, if you will, to Almiron.  So the new rule came into play quickly.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Fortunately Did Not

Dennis:  Did you say that Morocco will have the edge in their match against Brazil?

Steve: No, I said Bono will be in goal for them.

So Much For the Group of Unicorns and Rainbows

Spain and Uruguay were arguably gifted the easiest group but both promptly threw away the advantage with draws against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia respectively.  Spain outshot Cape Verde 23 to 6 (8 to 1 on shots on goal), had 74% of possession and made 764 passes but failed to score.  Uruguay had a similar experience with shots 27/7, shots on target 10/3 and 65% possession but could only come away with a 1-1 draw.

Close, But No; Qatar

Answers to the questions 1) did Switzerland win and 2) who did they play.  Punctuation matters.

The Most Dangerous Lead In Soccer

Is one goal.  Just ask, Czechia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Switzerland, Morocco, Netherlands, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, New Zealand and Portugal, who failed to hold one goal leads. Only South Korea, Scotland, Ivory Coast and Ghana survived with a one goal lead; note that Ivory Coast got their lead in the 90th minute and Ghana took their lead in the 95th minute so neither of those two spent much time defending those leads.

When You Look Good, You Play Good

BFS Director of Historical Programs sends along this clip about the travelling attire of the DR Congo team.  The team went out and scored their first World Cup goal ever and, with the 1-1 draw to Portugal, got their first World Cup point ever as well.  Coincidence?  We'll never know.  

We were thrilled with the result as readers know we are not CR7 fans here.  However, I must admit to being slightly peeved that Yoane Wissa equaled his season goal tally for Newcastle in a single World Cup game.  

What To Watch

Here's our take on the matches in the second round of group stage matches.  There are a few additions based on the first round results.

June 18 - Mexico vs Korea - though the Group B matches (Canada v Qatar and Switzerland v Bosnia) are more interesting given that everybody drew their opening matches 1-1)

June 19 - Scotland vs Morocco, Turkiye vs Paraguay and US vs Australia (okay, that's three but they are all good)

June 20 - Netherland vs Sweden or maybe Germany vs Ivory Coast

June 21 - New Zealand vs Egypt though every other match that day (Belgium v Iran, Spain v Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay v Cape Verde) are way more interesting given that all those sides drew their first match

June 22 - Norway vs Senegal

June 23 - England vs Ghana ( not a great selection that day either)

I like to lay out the scenarios for the last phase of group play but I fear the permutations will overwhelm my bandwidth.   Still, my plan is to check in with a post on Wednesday morning.