Let the Sacking Begin

Two managers gone.  Some interesting results heading into the international break.

A Better Quality of Suck

Newcastle got a great shift from teenager Sean Steur

Newcastle reminds me a bit of my golf game - if you can't be good, just strive for a better quality of suckiness.  The Magpies 1-1 draw with Fulham aptly fits that description.  Slight underdogs heading into the match at Craven Cottage, Newcastle played just well enough to keep it at 0-0 until the 80th minute.  Then, Jacob Murphy came up with a steal and a solo run capped by a brilliant finish seen here.  But high handicappers are going to get their double bogeys and Newcastle got theirs just three minutes later, giving up a messy goal after failing to get the ball out of the final third.  

Hornicek was brilliant in goal after last week's howler.  Sean Steur was excellent in midfield, the best we've seen from the 18 year-old and sparking hope for the future.  Dedic, Hall and Burns were decent on defense.  But Wissa, Barnes and Osula were quite disappointing up top, failing to generate much offense.  

The result leaves Newcastle 12th in the table, four points from 6th but also just four points from the relegation zone.  

What the Hell Was That?

I hope you got to see Man United vs Aston Villa because my account couldn't possibly do it justice.  Villa were up 2-0 within four minutes, leading me to wonder if a manager has ever been sacked at half time.  Incredibly, United did not fade into oblivion, helped by a stupid by Kamara in the box (Fernandes converted the PK), then a late first half goal from Tielemans (former Villan, now villain).  

Then they proceeded to repeat the whole process over again in second half.  Aston Villa were up 4-2 by 53 minutes.  So Carrick was going to be sacked before he got back on the bus?  Nope, unbelievably United tallied two stoppage time goals from Zirksee and Dorgu.  Here's the equalizing goal. I didn't feel real strongly at the time but watching the replay again, that looks like a foul by United keeper Lammens.  He never looks at the ball, looks for Villa keeper Suzuki, then backs into him.  

Watching live, it felt like two points thrown away by Aston Villa but stats heavily favor United.  The irony is that the comeback still left United in the relegation zone and probably wasn't enough to save Carrick's job (it wasn't, see Tis the Season below).  

Unexpected Results

Three losses in a row? This can't be happening
Photo: Catherine Ivill AMA/Getty Images

I did expect Leeds to play Spurs tough but I thought Tottenham would get something out of the match. Felt like a draw to me but the 1-0 win for Leeds doesn't look crazy based on the stats.  Definitely did not see Nottingham Forest knocking off Man City.  The 3-1 final looks to flatter Forest.  Three league losses in a row for the Citizens?  Sunday saw Sunderland upset Chelsea 1-0 and from what I saw, that was a fair result.

Arsenal did not exactly bury Hull with their 1-0 win but it was enough to keep a five point cushion over now second place Brighton, who were 2-0 winners over Brentford.  Liverpool crept into the top four with a win over Crystal Palace.

Tis the Season?

Most of the managers under the gun got a result over the weekend. Regis Lebris saw his Sunderland catch Chelsea off guard and Oliver Glasner's Nottingham Forest stunned Man City.  Jaissle and Newcastle held on for a draw at Fulham and Carrick's Man United twice overcame two goal deficits to walk away with a 4-4 draw.  

Pierre Sage at Palace was not so lucky as the Eagles fell 1-3 to Liverpool, though the stats say it was an even match.  And so he became the season's first sack victim after just 16 matches in charge.   With just two wins and a draw against seven losses in league play, Palace are at the bottom of the table.  On the other hand, they have reached the quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup and were on pace to make it to the playoff round of Europa League.  On the other, other hand, there are reports (see here) that it's not just results driving the decision but issues with an "unhealthy atmosphere" around the team.

And, before I could publish this post, Carrick got the sack. Efforts to sign Pochettino as his replacement are well-along already, though there has been some talk that Eddie Howe or Julian Nagelsmann are also under consideration.  And now, even Pep Guardiola's name is being tossed about as a candidate.

The other survivors of this weekend should not get too comfortable.  As the graph below indicates, we are heading into prime sack season.  

Managerial departures in the Premier League since 2016-17

The most common months to make a change are November, December and January

1

6

9

12

13

12

9

6

8

1

Source: Premier League

Domino Effect

Another annoying aspect of sackings is they can cause other dominos to fall as well.  In the case of Michael Carrick, his sacking will likely cause chaos for the USMNT; we don't need Pochettino leaving just when the program looks to have some momentum.  His departure will set off another mad scramble for a new manager, who will have his own ideas about how the team should play and who should be on the pitch.  They'll end up taking somebody like BJ Callaghan at Nashville, which will have it's own domino effect within the MLS.  And the stupid thing is that Carrick's not the problem at Man United; it's questionable front office choices (debt and recruitment) leading to difficulties in getting the right players for the team. 

Sullivans Put On a Really Big Shew (you might have to be over 60 to get the reference)

The Union came out ready to clinch a real playoff spot and pretty much dominated Toronto.  Yet, despite seeming to have the ability to score at will, the halftime score was only 2-1.  It probably felt like more of a rout since two goals had been called back (correctly) for offside.  Two second half goals made the final score 4-1, which felt more like what we were watching.  To wit, expected goals were 4.2 - .5.  Cavan had two goals, Quinn had a goal and two assists, including one for his brother.  We make the Sullivan to Sullivan connection this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

The result got the Union 6th place and they will face New England in the first round of the playoffs. First match in that best of three series is Saturday 11/21.  Part of me thinks they are playing with house money at this point and we should be happy just to be there given that they were buried deep in last place at the World Cup break.  On the other hand, as the table below shows, only Nashville gathered more points in post-World Cup action than Philly.

Granted, one of the Union's only two losses after the World Cup was a 1-2 defeat at home to New England; they also lost up in Massachusetts in May 2-1.  But they were ten points better than the Revolution over the last 20 games.  There is every reason to think this series will be competitive.

Line of Honor

Bedoya says goodbye
Photo: Chris Szagola

Alejandro Bedoya announced his retirement at the end of this season.  I have mixed thoughts about his time with the Union.  For me, compared to other teams' Designated Players, he was expensive for what we got.  Also, I never liked how he was quick to visibly berate teammates on the field for their mistakes.  I'm more of an encourage and educate kind of person but I guess you lead how you lead and I'll lead how I lead.  But his service to the team really can't be questioned.  He's appeared in nearly 300 matches for the club and served as captain since 2017.  During his tenure, the Union have won two Supporters Shields, been to an MLS Cup Final and made the playoffs 9 of 11 years.  

On the facing of the west stand at Subaru Park, they have a tribute to all-time Union greats laughably called "The Ring of Honor." Right now it has one name - Sebastien LeToux.  Geometry says that's a point, not a ring.  I expect we'll see Bedoya's name up there next year, deservedly so.  Soon it will be "The Line of Honor."  

Head Over Heels

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this goal by the Texas Tech women's team.  It's been so long since I saw a flip throw, I had forgotten that it is legal.  It's specifically addressed as an FAQ on IFAB's website:

According to Law 15, a player must stand to take a throw-in. Is it allowed to do a somersault beforehand?

Yes – if at the moment of delivering the ball the player has both feet on the touchline (or on the ground outside the touchline), is facing the field of play and throws the ball with both hands from behind and over the head.

What isn't legal is the somersault long jump.

Don't forget USMNT vs Haiti in CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinals on Saturday and Tuesday.

Disgruntlement

That was Jim Beglin's pinpoint characterization of the mood at Saint James' Park during the Magpies' truly moribund performance against Everton.  There was plenty of that to go around this week.

Another Monday Loss

The losing goal skips under Hornicek
Credit Getty

Newcastle lowered their record on Mondays to 0-0-3 with the 0-1 loss to Everton.  While not the 4-1 pastings of the other two defeats, their uninspiring showing here was just as troubling.  They managed just two shots on target and really didn't offer much in the way of attacking football until maybe the final 15 minutes.  The only goal of the match was a shot that Hornicek let slip under him, allowing Barry to bury it in the back of the net.  The compression of the table at this early stage (11 sides are within six points of the drop zone) probably overstates the number of teams at risk but this Newcastle team needs to sort out who they are before the threat becomes real.

Conversation That Didn't Take Place

Dennis: Is Newcastle's problem that the players aren't good enough or that it's the wrong system for this group of players?

Steve: 

Not Much Better in Birmingham

Aston Villa let what should have been three points slip away with a 1-1 draw at home against Fulham.  Police have ruled the case a suicide, not a murder.  Early on, John McGinn slammed his PK attempt into the crossbar.  Nicolas Jackson did give them the lead late in the first half and overall the Villans did look like they were the better side.  Except they forgot to show up for the second half.  And, when Suzuki caught a Fulham corner in the goal, things were level at 1-1.  They would stay that way and Villa's chance of climbing higher in the table was gone.

Their fun week continued with a 3-0 thumping at the hands of Barcelona in Champions League action.  Not that this was unexpected, especially with the match at Camp Nou but it wasn't exactly what they needed to bounce back.  The good news is that they are still in the top eight right now.

Lividpull

What shirt pull?
Credit NBC Screengrab

Michael B and I both noted that, for the neutral,  there's nothing better than watching two good teams go at it.  You appreciate each play for what it is, not for how it affects your team.  Such was

Liverpool versus Arsenal.  The Gunners went up early on a goal from Kai Havertz.  Somewhat surprisingly they almost immediately struck a more defensive posture.  Fortunately for us viewers, Arsenal can go from zero to attack in six seconds so the despite the conservative approach, the action was still two-way.  

The game did feature an interesting non-call at 20 minutes when Timber clearly pulled Isak's shirt as the striker attempted to head a cross. You can see the play here but don't blink or you'll miss it.  Part of the reason there's not much on the video is that VAR did not intervene so there was no prolonged analysis at the time.  It sure looked to me like the shirt pull did affect Isak's momentum to reach the ball.  The Premier League did not issue a statement.  There were multiple social media posts saying PGMOL issued an apology but I found nothing official.  I did find this NY Times article in which former EPL referee Graham Scott provides his explanation for the decision.  Frankly, it was a bit shocking to me. Check out this statement:

VARs are asked not to interrogate an incident forensically and delay the match if there is no appetite from anyone in the stadium for an intervention. 

Isak demonstrates to Madley what Timber did

He also suggested Iraola's "muted" response indicates that it couldn't have been that obvious a foul.  Seriously?  So if a player or coach doesn't complain vociferously, there's no reason for VAR to intervene?  Isn't this just asking for more theatrics from the players in the form of embellishing fouls and then getting in the referee's face when it's not called.  As the picture right shows, Isak did in fact complain to Madley, showing him exactly what Timber did.  How much of an appetite does a player need to have to convince the VAR to take a good look?  Hmm, maybe they do have "to make a meal of it."

Carrick's Wild Ride

Man United's match with Chelsea was the car crash we forecast as they were beaten 2-0.  They were outshot 20/10, shots on target were 10/4, and expected goals were2.83/1.27.  On the disciplinary side, they racked up 19 fouls and six yellow cards; two of those were for Lisandro Martinez, who got himself sent off at 63 minutes while giving Chelsea a PK.

Surprisingly, Carrick survived and was on the sideline for their Champions League match with Roma.  When the Red Devils fell behind 2-0 within 17 minutes, surely this had to be the end for him.  Not so fast, and please don't call me Shirley.  The Red Devils rallied to win on the strength of two goals from Cunha at 83 and 86 minutes.  But, perhaps indicative of Carrick's luck this season, even that had a messy footnote.  Cunha, already on a yellow, took off his jersey celebrating the winning goal and was shown a second yellow and sent off.   After the match, Carrick was seen forcefully directing Cunha to get off the pitch during the postgame celebration.  Although Cunha appeared frustrated with his manager, Carrick was absolutely correct here as Cunha should have been nowhere near the pitch and was risking an extended suspension.  

He will manage the club versus Aston Villa this weekend.  It's not clear if he survives a bad result in that one, especially with an international break coming right after. 

Quick Summary

In other action, Man City got knocked off 1-0 by Brighton for their second straight defeat.  With Arsenal's win over Liverpool, the Gunners are top of the table.  Spurs continued to roll with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace; their cause was helped immensely by Mateta's sending off at 13 minutes.

Howlerween

Coinciding with Halloween weekend, there was a rash of keeper howlers. Aston Villa dropped two points thanks to Suzuki's mistake.  Newcastle were beaten by this howler from Hornicek.  Man City survived Donnarumma getting beaten on the near post.  Though Ipswich manager Gary O'Neil did not throw keeper Christian Walton under the bus, many suggest that poor positioning by Walton in relation to the wall on a Hull free kick from the top of the box was responsible for a goal.  And, while we might not label it a howler, Andre Blake did allow a tasty rebound that was buried for the only goal in their 1-0 loss to Cincinnati

Buh-bye to Fifth

Though not awful, the Union hardly distinguished themselves in a 1-0 loss at Cincinnati.  It's a little strange as the stats suggest they weren't that bad - 15 shots, 6 on target, expected goals of 1.8.  I just don't remember them looking that good.  Unfortunately, the loss clinches "not 5th."  And, 8th place and a play-in wild card spot are not off the table.  Cavan Sullivan did get on for 30 minutes but Iloski was still out injured.  

An International Break Beckons

Friday is Everton - Coventry City.  Early Saturday is Leeds - Spurs.  Two at 10 are Arsenal - Hull City and Fulham - Newcastle.  Feature at 12:30 is Nottingham Forest - Man City.  

Four at 9 am Ipswich - Bournemouth, Sunderland - Chelsea, Brighton - Brentford, and Crystal Palace - Liverpool.  The matchweek concludes with Man U - Aston Villa at 11:30.

Here are the Opta match predictions:

I was thinking Spurs need to beware of Leeds but Opta says they actually underdogs.  Off recent form, the Newcastle percentages aren't a surprise.  The match I'm most looking forward to is Man United - Aston Villa.  I had it as the most competitive match of the week and Opta agrees.

The Union host Toronto at 4 pm.  A win gets them 6th, a draw guarantees no worse than 7th.  

The USMNT will have a two-legged CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal series with Haiti; matches are Saturday (11/14) and Tuesday (11/17).  

This will be the quietest week in a while.

Lastly, we have an explanation as to why the blog has so many typos:

Okay, Maybe We Overreacted

Last week we linked Newcastle with the R word yet now after a win at Crystal Palace, they sit 8th in the table. The Union finally saw their unbeaten streak broken but they did get a point on the road later in the week.  Fourth tier Fleetwood Town pulled off what might be the greatest upset in any English Cup competition.

We Needed That

While not as deadly as The Emirates, Newcastle haven't exactly shone brightly at Selhurst Park recently either.  They were outplayed by Palace in the first half but got busy right after the second half whistle.  At 47 minutes, Murphy sent a perfect cross that Osula could not help but put in the goal.  You can see it here as this week's YouTubeableMoment. Willock nearly made it 2-0 minutes later but the goal was correctly ruled out for offside.  No matter, as soon after Harvey Barnes got one that counted.  Palace certainly had their chances in the final 40+ minutes but Hornicek effectively dealt with the few that did not go soaring over the cross bar.  Ah, here's a familiar situation - Palace had the better xG at 1.81 to 1.15.

Jaissle sent out significantly reworked line up for this one.  The back line featured Schaar, Burn and Dedic to go with Lewis Hall rather than Botman, Thiaw and Miley.  That paid off.  He also put Osula up top instead of Fernandez-Pardo and was rewarded for that too.  Nico Gonzalez had a solid game in the defensive midfield, providing some insight as to why he was so highly sought after.  And, Lukas Hornicek finally looked confident in goal and provided some key saves.

So maybe this is a side still working to figure out who they are as opposed to relegation fodder.

City No Longer Perfect

Jackson making Villa look good despite what Dennis or I say about him
Martin Rickett/Press Association

Speaking of being out xGed, Man City had 1.99 to Aston Villa's .64 but it was the Villans who got the 2-1 win,  handing the Citizens their first loss of the year.  Two clutch goals from Nicolas Jackson offset Haaland's tally.  Regular readers know that both Dennis and I have ragged on Jackson for several years running; he's highly rated but just too inconsistent a scorer for our tastes.  So there are slightly mixed feelings as his recent performance may be proving us wrong even as he's helping Aston Villa move up the table.  We are working on the theory that Jackson got his reputation working under Emery and is finding his scoring touch after being reunited with his former coach.  

Arsenal pretty much ran over Everton 2-0 so City and the Gunners are now level on points at the top. 

Carrick Hanging On By A Thread

Though we didn't see the match, the stats suggest there was nothing fluky about Bournemouth's crushing 3-0 defeat of Man United at Old Trafford.  United did have better possession and led in shots 15-9 but the Cherries had more shots on goal (4-3) and did better on expected goals 2.27 - 1.01. Embattled manager Michael Carrick seems to have survived the defeat, though the stories circulating suggest the support from ownership was not overwhelming and might not last should the Red Devils fall to Chelsea this week.

Getting Better All the Time (apologies to The Beatles)

Liverpool's fortunes look to be improving as they snagged an important 2-0 win over upstart Brighton.  That's two straight league wins plus two recent CL victories and a shoot-out win over Chelsea in the Carabao Cup.

Shaky debut for Mike Penders as
he punches the ball into his own goal

Good news for Tottenham fans too.  Spurs notched a 2-0 over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, a place where they win maybe once a century.  Not to take too much away from the win, Chelsea were the architects of their own downfall.  The first tally was an own goal by keeper Mike Penders, who is filling in for the injured Emi Martinez (out six weeks with fractured jaw); he attempted to punch a cross out of the box but sent it into his own goal instead.  Cole Palmer then got sent off for a second yellow (he was lucky to avoid a straight red earlier) and Spurs took advantage, with Mathys Tel salting away the win with a nifty shot at 87 minutes.  This was a chippy affair, with 28 fouls (14 a piece) and seven yellows.

Not Minnows But Cods

Oh my Cod, we did it: Fleetwood players race
to celebrate their shootout win over Arsenal
Photograph: Jon Super/Reuters

Arsenal had looked to draw the easiest opponent in the Carabao Cup Fourth Round, getting to face Fleetwood Town FC, currently 18th in League Two.  That's a difference of 84 places in the English football hierarchy.  In these cup competitions, they always warn you about the minnows, or in this case The Cods.  Fleetwood struck first but when Arsenal scored at 50 minutes, one expected the underdogs o fold.  They did not and took the match to a penalty shoot out (in the early rounds they don't play extra time). The Fleetwood takers went 5 for 5 and sent the Gunners home to wonder how they lost despite outshooting their hosts 15-2 and having more shots on target (5-2). Here's the decisive miss by Guimaraes and the winning kick by Conor Haughey.

Newcastle started almost the same line up from Saturday as they faced Everton in their Carabao Cup fixture.  They won the statistical battle but lost 3-1 on the scoreboard.  Can't say I'm tremendously disappointed with the result.  I would much rather see them win the league contest with the Toffees on Monday.

Two other matches went to a shoot out, with Man City besting Brighton and Liverpool defeating Chelsea.  Aston Villa played a largely rotated line up and mostly looked disinterested in a 3-0 loss to Bournemouth.  Bradford looked better than their League One rival Peterborough in a 2-0 win, Sunderland bested Brentford. and Palace squeaked by Fulham.  The quarters on December 15th look like this:

Crystal Palace - Sunderland

Liverpool - Bournemouth

Man City - Bradford City

Fleetwood - Everton

The Streak Ends

The Union lost for the first time since spring, falling to the New England Revolution 1-2.  Possible explanations for the loss include:

- the Revolution are a good team

- the U were missing Cavan Sullivan, who sat out with an ankle injury

- they sent too many shots over the cross bar

- most of their crosses went right to NE keeper Matt Turner

- Jeff H and Steve had Primo hoagies instead of the usual sausage sandwich; yes that sounds like a violation of advice from Crash Davis but I had a chicken cheese steak last week and they still got a draw with Charlotte so we're heavily discounting this factor

The Boys in Blue did rebound with a 0-0 draw at league leading Nashville.  From what I saw, this looked like the correct result; neither team had many decent chances.  I guess Bender did have a pretty good chance to score on a great cross from Quinn Sullivan but hit the keeper.  

The point clinches at least the play-in playoff spot.

Busy Again

The Premier League has an incredibly crowded Saturday, a disappointingly skimpy Sunday and a dreaded Monday match for Newcastle.  There is midweek action in Champions League, Europa League and Conference League.

The early Saturday match (8:30 instead of 7:30 because we haven't fallen back yet) is an intriguing one with Chelsea hosting Man United. The Blues are in fifth despite three losses in eight matches and Carrick's Man United look in total disarray.  Recommended if you like car crashes.

For some reason the schedulers piled five matches into the 11 am slot.  I will likely go with Hull - Ipswich, two of the pre-season relegation favorites who currently sit 10th and 12th in the table.  Coventry versus Sunderland is a true relegation battle as they are 19th and 20th in the table.  Other choices are Bournemouth - Leeds, Brentford - Nottingham Forest, and Man City - Brighton.  

The NBC feature match at 1:30 is a London derby between Spurs and Crystal Palace; on paper this looks like a chance for Spurs to continue their progress.  We get a bonus 4 pm fixture at 4 pm on Peacock with Aston Villa hosting Fulham; as with Spurs, this looks like a chance for Villa to creep up the table some more.

The crowded Saturday calendar leaves us with but one Sunday fixture.  At least it's a good one with Liverpool hosting Arsenal.  Even with the match at Anfield, Arsenal are still decent favorites at 41/33/26.

The match week ends with Newcastle hosting Everton at 3 pm on Monday.  So far this season, the Magpies have lost two Monday matches by an aggregate 2-8.  Still, Opta likes their chances at 47/27/26.

The Union are in Cincinnati for a 2 pm match.  A draw with their hosts would guarantee them 7th or better, meaning they would not have to do the single elimination wild card playoff.  A win would improve their chances of getting to fifth, which would likely mean their round one opponent would be Chicago instead of Miami or New England.

League play continues Tuesday through Thursday for the various European competitions.  Unfortunately two of the most interesting fixtures for us are both at 3 pm on Tuesday.  Aston Villa will host Barcelona in the Villans toughest Champions League test so far.  At the same time Man United will face off against Roma at Old Trafford.  We have questions like will Carrick even be the manager at that point or if he is, will a loss to Roma be the end for him?

The "R" Word?

Another disappointing performance from Newcastle has some people talking about the Magpies as a relegation candidate.  The Union continued their unbeaten streak.

No Yeah, Buts As Union Extend Unbeaten Streak to 15

The glass half empty people will find a way to devalue the Union's 2-2 draw with Charlotte and we have a few nits to pick as well but this was a good result.  Charlotte are a solid team, they had most of their key personnel available and they played the whole match at full strength.  As in, there weren't any of the "yeah, buts" that have taken some of the shine off results during the streak.  Like, yeah, but they are a lousy team or yeah, but they played 60 minutes down a man, etc. 

The Union came out of a lively first half with a 1-0 lead thanks to a PK from Iloski.  They completely lost the plot for the first 20 minutes of the second half and fell behind 1-2.  Damiani got the equalizer with this week's YouTubeableMoment at 73 minutes.  Both sides had decent chances to win in the final 20+ but couldn't convert.  Expected goals at 2.8 to 1.8 suggest that maybe the Union could have gotten all three but to my eye this looked like a fair result.  

Quinn Sullivan's name didn't show up on the scoresheet
 but he had a big impact

The biggest positive was how they rallied after falling behind.  They looked so lost for a time that we feared the wheels were going to come off.  Getting Quinn Sullivan on the pitch earlier than usual (at 55 minutes instead of 60 or later) was probably a key to getting momentum back.  Sullivan family members sitting right behind us pointed out that though he didn't get an assist on the play, his pass set up Damiani's goal.  Danley put in a great shift at midfield, including an assist on Damiani's goal. Neil Pierre was also solid at center back. 

Nits include a relatively poor outing for Kai Wagner as his deliveries into the box weren't up to his standards and he had trouble with Charlotte's speed down the wing.   Harriel did a good job breaking up multiple Charlotte attacks but he was also badly beaten for their first goal and missed a late header that could have won it.  Iloski did convert the PK but missed a wide open shot that would have given the U a 2-1 lead.

They are just two points out of fourth but the next two matches are New England and Nashville, 3rd and 1st respectively in the standings.  They do finish with Cincinnati and Toronto so there could be a few more points to collect.

A Fractious Fillebrown Derby

Manzambi was supposed to do this for us not against us

Jon Champion's words, not mine, but there were 25 fouls and eight yellow cards (six for the Magpies). Though Aston Villa left Saint James' Park with just a 1-0 win, it didn't feel that close.  Except for a spell late in the second half, Newcastle weren't much of a threat to score.  Sure, they had 16 shots but just one on target.  The Premier League website says they had no big chances.  I'm a little surprised to see xG at .99 - it didn't feel anywhere near that high.  They only surrendered the one goal (nice header by Manzambi, who was supposed to be playing in black and white this season until Villa snatched him up) but the defending did not inspire confidence.  New hires Fernandez-Pardo and Nico Gonzalez haven't offered much yet and Wissa looks like he left all his goals at the World Cup.  We are fans of Lewis Miley but not so much at right back.

There is probably enough talent here to avoid relegation but Matthias Jaissle needs to figure out a system that works.  Getting Livramento and Elanga back would probably help too.

Sack Time?

It's almost November and at least half a dozen managers are at risk. You can see the latest odds here.  Right now the two leading candidates are Crystal Palace's Pierre Sage (we hardly know him yet) and Michael Carrick (last year's manager bounce winner).  Sage's situation was certainly hurt by a 5-0 blowout at Brighton in their non-derby derby.  Man United could only manage a 1-1 draw at Leeds (totally fair result based on what I saw and the stats) so Carrick's position became more tenuous too.  Alvara Arbeola may have bought himself some time with Fulham's 1-0 win over Hull City.  Same for DeZerbi with Spurs 3-1 at home to Coventry; that one featured goals from Maddison and Marmoush plus the return of Kulusevski, things which suggest better days ahead for Tottenham.

Nottingham Forest may have deserved a little better than an 0-1 defeat against visiting Arsenal - the Gunners had one shot on target and xG was only 1.01 - .83 - but the result does nothing to take the pressure off Oliver Glasner.  No surprise to see Matthias Jaissle up there on the list, though with Newcastle in 11th, he's the highest in the table of the favorites to be sacked.  I wasn't paying attention but with Sunderland now bottom of the table, Regis LeBris moved up the list; the 0-2 loss to struggling Bournemouth did not help.

We will argue that it's nuts that any of these guys are top candidates for the sack.  Sage, Arbeola, Glasner, Jaissle and essentially DeZerbi are new in their positions.  Carrick lifted Man United out of the doldrums last year and all of a sudden he's a lousy manager?  Same for LeBris; he took Sunderland from a sure-fire relegation candidate to Europa League last year and now he sucks?  Right.

In Other News...

Maybe not super clear but Yarmolyuk
did move his head into Jacquet

Man City continue to roll, though the 3-2 win over Ipswich does betray a less than impenetrable defense.  Liverpool took another step in the right direction with a 2-1 win over Brentford. The asterisk there is that the Reds trailed 0-1 at halftime and rallied only after Brentford had a man sent off.  Yarmolyuk is the latest player to discover that when it comes to blows to the head, the laws say: 

a player who, when not challenging for the ball, deliberately strikes an opponent or any other person on the head or face is guilty of violent conduct unless the force used was negligible.

In other words the threshold is "not negligible" as opposed to involving "excessive force." We are fine with that.  And, based on their 2-0 win at Everton, Chelsea look to be finding some momentum; this was a chippy affair that featured seven yellow cards.

Conversation That Took Place But Not As Presented Below

Dennis: Spurs hanging on against Coventry is not where you want to be

Steve: Better than losing 4-1 to them like Newcastle did

Dennis: Always with the negative waves

The View From Europe

Liverpool (Villareal), Man City (AEK) and Aston Villa (Viking) all got wins.  Arsenal got a hard fought win away at Bayern.  Man United were not so lucky as they fell 4-1 to Como, a side that has been establishing itself as player in Serie A; this result will only ramp up the pressure on Carrick.  Villa and Liverpool remain perfect through the first three of eight matches in league play.  Last year, nine points got some teams through to the playoff stage so a few more points in the remaining five matches probably gets these two through.  

In Europa action, Bournemouth got a win while Sunderland and Palace got draws; that might buy some time for LeBris and Sage.  Brighton got a draw in Conference League.

Two Goals That Deserve A Second Look

BFS Northern California Correspondent Greg M sends us this clip of Martin Ojeda's piece of artistry for Orlando against DC United.  That is some display of acrobatics.

In the longer distance category, we have this goal from Brighton's Diego Gomez.  Already down 0-1 at that point, Crystal Palace must have realized they were in for a long day.

Future USMNT Material?

BFS Energy Policy Analyst David C (the same one who took me to the Ecuador-Ivory Coast World Cup match), sent along this video of his grandson zipping through the defense before deftly placing his shot in the far corner.

Newcastle strikers may want to check this out for some pointers.

How To Be Sure You're In No Danger of Dehydration

BFS Artistic Director Laura O made sure we did not miss this story about the use of smart urinals to assess how well players are staying hydrated.  You identify yourself (mark your territory?) by clicking on a screen above the urinal when your face appears.  They've come along way from assessing levels of hydration by simply looking at the color of your pee.

Hoping For Better

An early start to the weekend with an intriguing 3 pm Friday match with a  -dare we say it? - overperforming Ipswich hosting an embattled Nottingham Forest. 

Saturday's 7:30 match is worth getting up to see Aston Villa taking on Man City.  Unfortunately we'll be out refereeing and on delay for that.  A very limited 10 am slot with just Coventry - Fulham (a relegation special) and Arsenal - Everton.  The feature 12:30 does deserve that label with Spurs traveling to Stamford Bridge for a London derby with Chelsea; both may be rounding into form so we're hoping for a good one.

The Sunday 10 am slot (UK goes off daylight savings time, which means start times here spring forward) is crowded with four matches, most with some level of interest.  We'll be live with Newcastle facing Crystal Palace at our second favorite venue, Selhurst Park; losing manager there might get a phone call afterwards.  Liverpool host Brighton, with the Seagulls still ahead of the Reds in the table.  Perplexing Man United take on Bournemouth at home; frankly anything less than a win here for the Red Devils could spell trouble for Carrick.  As Hull City may be coming back to earth, their home match with Brentford may not be as pretty as some of their earlier fixtures.  Sunday concludes with a 12:30 match that may not excite many - Sunderland vs Leeds.

The Union are at Subaru Park to host New England Saturday and then go on the road to face conference leader Nashville on Wednesday.  That's a tough week.

The European competitions have the week off.  But there is midweek football with fourth round Carabao Cup action with 8 matches spread over Tuesday - Thursday.  Full schedule is here  Six of the matches involve EPL sides, including Newcastle - Everton and Chelsea - Liverpool.  Somehow, Arsenal got League Two Fleetwood Town while the Bradford City - Peterborough United match (two League One rivals) ensures that a non-EPL side will reach the quarterfinals. 

Enjoy 

38 of 42

With two more wins, the Union extended their unbeaten streak to 14, garnering 38 out of a possible 42 points since MLS action resumed after the World Cup.  Newcastle, not so much.  We'll start with the good news first.

Talking Union

They didn't exactly blow Real Salt Lake away but the 2-1 final is a fair result.  RSL didn't park the bus but they did put up a solid defensive effort.  Damiani broke through at 31 minutes to give the U the lead. It was back and forth thereafter, though it did feel like they would hang on.  The "insurance" goal was a long time in coming and wasn't even ruled a goal on the pitch.  You can see Iloski's game winner here.  This was a three-part VAR, questioning whether there was 1) a foul in the buildup, 2) offside and 3) a handball by Iloski.  After a long review, the answers were no, no and no respectively and the goal was given.  Good thing too because Union would surrender a goal late in stoppage.

Nightmare for MLS?  Sullivan is 2nd in
assists and Iloski 3rd in goals

Move ahead to Wednesday in Chicago, where things were a bit more difficult, at least for the first half.  I would have said the U were the better side in the first so of course Chicago scored in the 44th minute.  The good news is the seeds of victory were sown shortly after that when ex-Union player Jack Elliott was shown a second yellow shortly before the first half whistle.  The Union got after the Fire right from the second half kickoff.  Goals from Iloski and Damiani at 48 and 55 minutes essentially put matters to rest; Damiani's second at 67 minutes finished the job.  

Six more points and the Union are 12-2-0 since the restart; quick math tells us that's 38 out of possible 42 points on offer.  The win over Chicago was a six-pointer, leaving the U just three points out of fourth.  The road gets tough from here, with upcoming matches versus 5th, 3rd and 1st place, i.e teams above them in the standings.

They Don't Like Mondays (apologies to The Boomtown Rats )

Newcastle's buzz kill 4-1 loss to Coventry City brought their record on Mondays this season to 0-0-2, with the combined score of the losses 1-8.  They got off to a bad start when Hornicek didn't keep possession of a shot and in the course of trying to retrieve the rebound, fouled Cherif for a PK, which Rudoni converted.  The Mapgies dominated the rest of the half but failed to score, thanks to some heroic work by defender Bobby Thomas.  Cherif blasted a shot early in the second half to double the lead.  Sven Botman's 70th minute laser offered a small window of hope that was closed by Coventry goals at 81 and 86 minutes.  Ironically, it was the first match this season in which they had a higher xG (1.77-1.51).  Guess that makes up for all the points they've accumulated while getting beat on xG.

So their finishing wasn't great and there was a bit of bad luck.  Hornicek didn't look great in goal and Botman had a tough day, though he did contribute a goal.  They also look like they are trying to figure out who they are.  Fernandez-Pardo was new up top, Nico Gonzalez is still working his way into the mix.  Miley was pressed into service at right back.  In other words, I'm trying hard not to panic yet.

Conversation That Most Assuredly Took Place

Steve (after Newcastle scored to cut the deficit to 2-1): Plenty of time...to lose 3-1

Dennis (after Coventry scored to make it 3-1): Prophetic

Steve: Pathetic you mean

Not Worth A Row of Beans?

Jon Champion speculated that was the value of Man City's 3-0 rout of Liverpool given the uncertainty surrounding possible sanctions for City's financial violations.  His point is perhaps dramatic but nonetheless fair; any penalty that involves point deductions or UEFA competition bans or demotion could easily alter the implications of on-field results.  The FA needs to get this process moving.

Champion's description could also apply to the time spent watching the match.  Liverpool had the run of play early but didn't capitalize and City worked their way back into the game.  But mostly it felt like one of those boring heavyweight championship boxing matches I remember watching as a kid; nothing really happened.  Then Gravenberch got a second yellow (soft IMHO) and 15 minutes later it was 3-0 City.  Maybe Gravenberch's sending off only hastened Liverpool's demise but it would have been more interesting to see this one play out at even strength.

Snatching Key Points

Ipswich Town have an interesting MO that we may want to remember should they avoid relegation.  For the third time this year they defeated a relegation rival with a very late goal.  Earlier this year, they turned draws into wins with goals at 90 minutes against Sunderland and Crystal Palace.  Saturday was even more dramatic.  Down 0-1 to Fulham late, the Tractor Boys got an 88th minute goal from Outtara then the game winner at 90+2 from Dara O'Shea.   You can see the goals here.  Nine points rather than just two from these matches seems huge.  

Coulda Shoulda Woulda

From a managed expectations perspective, Aston Villa's 2-2 draw with Brentford was good enough.  After all, the Bees sit third in the table and are one of three teams without a loss after six matches (Man City and Everton!? are the other two) so it sounded like a good result.   From a factual perspective, Villa probably should have won the match.  They led in most categories, most notably expected goals which were 2.08-1.18.  That actually seems low for the Villans; I recall a number of missed opportunities that seemed pretty good.  I don't remember this aspect - Brentford had 24 fouls (vs 7 for Aston Villa) and five yellow cards. I guess with the poor start to the season the draw seemed okay until you looked closer.

Unsolved Riddles

Both Man United and Spurs remain enigmas after their 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. Maybe Spurs were a little better in the first half but it ended 0-0.  Mbeumo put United up at 73 minutes and when Bentancur was sent off for a head butt at 78 you figured this one was over.  Except Solanke grabbed the equalizer at 90+2.

So Man United could only manage a draw at home, were out xGed 1.76 - .89 and couldn't hold the lead despite being up a man.  Spurs, though likelier the much happier of the two, still had trouble putting the ball in the net and were plagued with last year's bugaboo, the stupid red card.  To be fair, this did look like progress for Tottenham and maybe things started to move in the right direction.

Maybe You Shouldn't Answer the Phone For A While

Glasner: His predecessors lasted
8, 25, and 20 games

Given Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis' documented trigger finger when it comes to sacking managers, Oliver Glasner is on shaky ground after their 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace.  They started well enough with an early goal from Ndoye but were unlucky after that. I did see the match and the Palace goals did seem against the run of play; xG ended up 3.35 - 2.29 favor Forest.  At 15th in the table, two points above the relegation zone, I'd hold off on buying that house if I were Glasner.

Others

Arsenal stay 2nd after an underwhelming 2-1 win over Sunderland.  Brighton moved into 3rd with a 2-0 win at Sunderland.  Chelsea continued Bournemouth's terrible start with a 5-1 pasting at Stamford Bridge; the Cherries, along with Fulham and Spurs are the three clubs without a win this season.  Hull City stayed in the top half of the table with a hard fought 2-2 draw at home to Everton.

The View From Europe

Hopefully you remembered there was midweek Champions League action since the folks here at BFS forgot to mention that in last week's post.  The editorial staff was sent to bed without dessert.

Jackson and Barkley combined
for 4 goals and an assist vs Fenerbache

A very mixed experience for the EPL sides.  Arsenal took LOSC 3-0 and Liverpool won a 6-3 goal fest over LASK 6-3.  The easiest win was Aston Villa's 6-0 crushing of Fenerbache; they started scoring early and never stopped.  Dennis notes that when you allow Nicolas Jackson and Ross Barkley to each get a brace, you deserve to lose big.  The two Manchurian candidates for the Champions League title did not fare so well.  Man City fell behind PSG early, so much so that a second half brace from Haaland still left them on the short end of a 4-2 final.  Man United found only more questions in Spain, losing 2-0 to Atletico.

In Europa League action, Bournemouth and Sunderland remained unbeaten but Palace fell to Olympic Lyonnais.

Conversation That Sort of Took Place (NFL edition)

This weekend the Eagles were in London to take on the Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Satdium.  It did not end well, as the Eagles took the lead with 8 seconds to go but then allowed a long kickoff returned, tackled the guy before the clock ran out and saw the game winning field goal go through with no time left on the clock.  Dennis knew that I was watching Liverpool - Man City in the den while Laura watched the Eagles in the main room.

Dennis: How loud was Laura cursing in the other room?

Steve: I heard some f-bombs

Denns: A friend of mine notes that was super effin' Spursy from the Eagles

Fillebrown Derby

Saturday looks like refereeing the morning, then off to Subaru for the 2:30 start against Charlotte.  I will be on super delay for Saturday, which means I won't see the Fillebrown derby live.  This might be a good thing given that Aston Villa may have found themselves while Newcastle look lost.

I am mostly surprised/stunned at the Opta predictions for Saturday.  Start with Everton favored over Chelsea 43/30/27 in the 7:30 match.  Then we see Brentford - Liverpool at 37/36/27; I guess the Bees do deserve to be favored since they are ahead the Reds in the table and it's a home match for them.  Man City at 71/13/16 over Ipswich makes sense but surprised to see Fulham at 45/28/27 versus Hull City.  Quite surprised to see that in the feature match (of course the Fillebrown derby is the feature match) Newcastle are solid favorites at 41/32/27; color me skeptical.

Sunday has three at 9, each with a reason to watch.  Bournemouth are in the relegation zone and Sunderland are just one point above the line so that's a key match for them.  Brighton - Crystal Palace is a non-derby derby; no one considers it a derby but that fans all act like it is. And who know what to do with Leeds - Man United; it might be an interesting watch just to see if the Red Devils have sorted anything out.  At 11:30 there's Nottingham Forest - Arsenal; that doesn't sound like a match to get Glasner off the hot seat.  The matchweek concludes Monday with Spurs - Coventry City; this does look like a chance for Spurs to make more progress.

There's a full midweek slate of Champions League, Europa League and Conference League fixtures.  The non-EPL-centric fans might go with PSG versus Barcelona on Tuesday at 3 pm: we'll likely go with Liverpool hosting Villareal.  Wednesday looks like Como - Man United at 12:45, then Aston Villa versus Viking at 3.  In truth, the better choice at 3 pm is probably Bayern hosting Arsenal.  Thursday is crowded with both Europa and Conference League action with EPL sides taking on clubs I've never heard of.  Brighton vs Jablonec?Sunderland versus Lech Poznan?  Bournemouth take on Milan and Palace face Besiktas - I have heard of those teams.