Fortunes Were Changed

This was a volatile weekend for "stock prices" of EPL sides.  One constant though was that the Union failed to score again.

WINNERS

Newcastle

Raving lunatics in action

The 3-1 win over Brighton didn't lead to an increase in stock price but rather a halt in the precipitous decline of the last few months.  The relief and celebration that spread around Saint James' Park at the final whistle might have led you to think that the Magpies had just fended off relegation as opposed to solidifying their hold on 13th in the table.  Technically, it's true that the win did put those long relegation odds to bed but it was more about them remembering how to win a match.  Osula got another one courtesy of a fine cross from Jacob Murphy.  The most impressive thing about the play, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment, is that instead of staying down for a possible foul, Murphy got up to deliver the cross.  

A second goal on a Dan Burn header meant that 1) Newcastle had its first two goal lead in forever and 2) the rest of the match would be spent wondering how the Magpies would blow it.  They did concede a goal at 60 minutes and gave away some scary chances for Brighton to level.  They also missed a few golden opportunities to put the match away.  Finally, in stoppage time Harvey Barnes got the insurance goal to give the home fans some peace for the final seconds.

The win drops their relegation chances at Opta to 0%.  They are also showing up with a .03%  of finishing 6th, which could still get one a Champions League berth.  Right. Other European spots are also technically in play, though with so many sides ahead of them, the chances are slim.  Realistically, there is no place, up or down, for them to go at this point.  

Spurs

Conor Gallagher's first goal for
Spurs was a big one

No bigger winners this weekend than Spurs.  They went into the weekend as the prohibitive favorite to be the third relegatee but came away with a massive 2-1 win over Aston Villa.  It's true that Villa rested some starters and were missing McGinn due to injury but this was a still a beat down that wasn't as close as the score suggests.  The unexpected points dropped Spurs relegation chances to 21%, down from last week's 59%.  Basically, they have control over their destiny now.

Arsenal

Seems like just a few weeks ago we were wondering where Arsenal's dream season had gone.  Turns out it was right there all the time.  They easily took care of EPL business with a 3-0 win over Fulham.  Their title hopes then got a big boost when Man City could only draw 3-3 with Everton on Monday.  Opta now has them with an 86% chance of winning the Premier League, up from 72%.  Dennis thought with West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace as the Gunners' remaining opponents, that seemed low.

The good week continued with a 1-0 win over Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League semi for a 2-1 win on aggregate.  A close match but not all that intriguing. Arsenal fans won't care I'm sure.  They'll play PSG, who finished off Bayern in a boring 1-1 second leg for a 6-5 aggregate win, for the Champions League title on May 30th.

Nottingham Forest and Leeds

Leeds and Nottingham Forest pretty much got themselves across the relegation finish line with wins over Burnley and Chelsea respectively.

Man United

The win over Liverpool confirmed their Champions League spot for next year.  Their next big decision is do they keep Carrick?

LOSERS

West Ham

The big loser of the weekend was West Ham.  With their 0-3 loss to Brentford and Spurs win, the Hammers relegation odds went from 38% to 79%.  With Arsenal, Newcastle and Leeds for their run in, the chances don't look promising that Nuno will be able to keep the team up.

 

Man City

The Everton - Man City match was supposed to be my chance for a nap on the Monday calendar but it turned into a great contest.  City had an early lead but a Guehi howler helped level it.  Everton then built a 3-1 lead that a lasted for two minutes before Haaland got one back.  The Toffees carried the lead late into stoppage time, looking at a massive three points to boost their chances for a spot in one of next year's European competitions.  Doku dashed those hopes with this equalizer at 90+7.

The thing is, though City rescued a point, they couldn't afford to drop two points here.  

Chelsea

For the record, the 3-1 defeat to Nottingham Forest was Chelsea's sixth straight league loss.  However, at least they scored for the first time in league play since March 4th.

Brighton

Nobody loses to Newcastle these days. It put a slight crimp in their hopes for Europe next year but they are still in the mix along with Bournemouth and Brentford.

RECOVERING

Aston Villa

McGinn's brace buried Forest

The recent run of poor league form had been annoying, though they were in little danger of losing their Champions League spot.  However, the 4-0 trouncing of Nottingham Forest in the second leg of their Europa League tie was an emphatic reminder of their potential.  Down 0-1 after the first leg, they did have the run of play for the first half but didn't cash in until Buendia and Watkins teamed up in the 36th minute to level things.  Buendia converted a second half PK before McGinn added a brace to completely shut the door.  Forest had been a bit of trendy pick based on recent results.  Also, it's fair to note that they were without Gibbs-White, who sustained facial injuries in the win over Chelsea.

Crystal Palace

Kind of the same story as Villa, with the Eagles falling to 15th in the table off of recent form.  They took care of Shakhtar Donetsk 5-2 in aggregate to reach the finals of Europa Conference League.  A win over Rayo in the final would get Palace to next year's Europa League, a spot they probably can't get through league play at this point.

End of Month Planning

The remaining finals go like this:

5/16 - FA Cup Final - Chelsea vs Man City

5/20 - Europa League Final - Aston Villa vs Freiburg

5/27 - Europa Conference League Final - Crystal Palace vs Rayo

5/30 - Champions League Final - Arsenal vs PSG

Note that the EPL is represented in all three European finals.

Another Clean Sheet of the Wrong Kind

The Union continue to look good across most of the pitch - except the final third.  In the 0-0 draw with Nashville, they generated an xG of 1.3 but couldn't find the net.  I think they had two off the post compared to just one for Nashville.  The good news is that they played a very good Nashville side even up.  But even with the point, they are in last place, three behind Montreal.  Eesh.

A Lighter Week

We probably do need to get up for the 7:30 contest between Liverpool and Chelsea.  Or maybe not, Opta has the Reds as big home favorites here.  Three choices at 10 am except there's really only one - Fulham vs Bournemouth.  Other options of Brighton - Wolves and Sunderland - Man United don't seem worth it.

The 12:30 match is Man City Brentford; City can afford no more slip ups.

The Sunday 9 am slot is busy with Burnley - Aston Villa, Crystal Palace - Everton and Nottingham Forest - Newcastle.  We have to go with Magpies but neutrals might do best with Palace versus Everton.  Ouch, just saw that Forest are big favorite over Newcastle.  The 11:30 match up is critical but not enticing as West Ham host Arsenal.

Monday's contest between Spurs and Leeds is important; this could be a chance for Spurs to put some space between themselves and the relegation zone.  

Man City cash in their game in hand on Wednesday versus Crystal Palace

Union travel to face revitalized a New England side.  I'm quite surprised that Opta barely has the Revolution favored even at home.  I suppose if you offered me a 0-0 draw at kick-off, I'd probably take it.

Slowly Sinking to Their Rendezvous

Apologies to The Band

Such an apt description for Newcastle and the Union.

Despite clerking at Penn Relays, I did get to see much of the action thanks to the electronic marvel of DVR.  Spoiler alert: Many of the results are not good.

What's the Opposite of Pyrrhic Victory?

Nothing Eze about this shot - it was unstoppable:
David Klein/Reuters

Newcastle actually played pretty well in a fixture that has been historically disastrous.  They made
Arsenal sweat out a narrow 1-0 win with the only goal coming on a brilliant strike by Eze.  They basically gave as good as (or even better than) they got.  Possession was 55/45, shots were 13/11 and xG was 1/.49, all favor the Magpies; Arsenal did have a slight advantage in shots on target at 4/3.   Of course, Newcastle still got no points for the effort and saw their chances of relegation rise from .01% to .09%.

Run That By Me Again

So after we basically awarded Aston Villa one of the five Champions League berths in last week's post, they of course went out and lost 1-0 to Fulham.  Along with Liverpool's win over Crystal Palace, the loss dropped them to fifth place.  However, with an eight point lead over 6th place Brighton, the Villans are still a good bet for top five.  Fourth or fifth, Villa fans probably won't care either way.

But the rest of the league does care because Aston Villa still have another route to next year's Champions League - win the Europa League.  Should Villa finish fifth but win the Europa League, their spot earned via the EPL finish would go to the sixth place team.  Oddly, if they finish fourth and win Europa League, the spot goes to another league.  Say what?

The fifth spot allocated to the EPL is called the European performance spot and is based on the relative ranking of the EPL compared to other European associations.  Due to an incredible quirk in the rules, that spot is treated differently than one of the four "regular" qualifying spots.  If a club qualifies by winning the Champions League or Europa League and also finishes in the top four, the EPL's regular allocation of four is reduced by one; the EPS is not affected so the EPL would still have five entries.  However, if the team doesn't finish in top four and earns the Champions League berth via the EPS, the rules specifically allocate that the EPS to the sixth place finisher.  Who dreams this stuff up?

Just for fun I checked Opta predictions to see which sides they believe are "still in the hunt."  Turns out it goes all the way down to 13th place Crystal Palace who still have a .17% chance of finishing sixth.   I suppose this is good in a way because just about every match for the next few weeks will matter.  But I also wonder does it create some "perverse incentives."  According to this article in the NYT, turns out it might. The money quote: 

The chasing pack may be breathing down their necks, but the above scenario throws up the possibility that Chelsea could be incentivised to lose away to Liverpool on May 9. Liverpool are three points behind Villa, boast a superior goal difference and have been eliminated from all other competitions, giving them room to focus solely on the league.

Unless Chelsea achieve the unlikely and overtake Liverpool from their current position seven points behind the outgoing champions, it would be in their interests for Arne Slot’s side to finish ahead of Villa, shunting Emery and company down into fifth. Chelsea will still have two more games to play after that trip to Anfield but, in the final reckoning, a loss there might help their Champions League cause.

Whoops.

Status Quo In Relegation Race

All three relegation contenders came away with three points so the relative standings did not change.  Nottingham Forest had the easiest time, dispatching Sunderland 5-0 on Friday, allowing them to sit back on Saturday and watch their pursuers sweat it out.  Wolves and Spurs seemed destined to finish in a 0-0 draw, with not too many scoring chances (xG was .70-.92 favor Spurs).  Palhinha rescued Spurs bacon with a 82nd minute goal for a 1-0 final.  Meanwhile in London, West Ham spent most of the second half nursing a 1-0 lead over Everton.  An 88th minute goal from Tewksbury-Hall leveled things and for a time, dropped the Hammers behind Spurs.  A stoppage time goal from Callum Wilson, seen here, gave West Ham all three points and kept them two ahead of Spurs.

So how did the weekend change the relegation odds?  Spurs went up slightly from 58 to 59%, West Ham stayed flat at 38% and Forest dropped from 4% to 2%.  

In "A Great Match for the Neutral," It's More Fun To Be Neutral

Taking in the first leg of PSG versus Bayern, I had a very slight rooting interest for the German side but not all that much.  Therefore, I was able to enjoy the 5-4 contest favor PSG that had just about everything.  At  5-2 I was so close to moving on to something else except I realized there was nothing else I needed to move on to.  

This will not stand

I was a little less of neutral for Atletico - Arsenal and it was a much different contest.  They finished 1-1 with both goals coming on PKs.  Also, there was a PK call overturned (see picture left) which left Arsenal fuming.  To be sure, this was a tough call either way.  My bias here is that it was called a PK on the field and you can see there was contact.  The cleaner result would have been for the ref not to call it on the field.  I had been expected a tense but basically uneventful contest and was pleasantly surprised at how watchable this was.

What are you doing Luca?

I was definitely not neutral for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest and while the 1-0 loss was not a
disaster, their play was disappointing.  The only goal came on a brain cramp of epic proportions by Luca Digne (see right).  As the ball was heading out for possible goal kick for Villa, Hutchinson rescued it by the slimmest of margins and it went to directly to Digne, who for unknown reasons, had thrown both arms in the air.  To what purpose? If the ball goes out it's a goal kick  Chris Wood buried the PK and that was the extent of the scoring.

Crystal Palace had the best result of the EPL sides, getting a 3-1 result on the road against Shakhtar Donetsk.

Meet Me Halfway, Take A Shot

Recall the old Italian (Jewish, insert nationality here) about the man praying to God to help him win the lottery, recounted here.  I did not see the Union's 2-0 loss to Columbus but was sort of following on line.  When I first tuned at about 10 minutes, it was already 1-0, and the Union had three shots, none on target.  It stayed that way for about another hour prompting Dennis to note "a 2-0 lead is second most dangerous in soccer but only if the trailing team can mount an attack."  They did rally for some shots in the final minutes but to no avail.  I had also noticed that Columbus was stuck on four shots, three on target.  Then the goal is posted but the shots don't change.  How can that be?  Oh crap, the dreaded own goal.  Seen here, we appear to be a bad team with bad luck. 

You Make the Call

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this video from a youth soccer match. Note that the attacking team didn't stop and put the ball in the net anyway.  BFS Referee Consultant Graham R and I have been trying to dissect what is the correct call here.  The answer depends on whether you consider the adult who pushed the player a team official or an outside agent.  If the latter, the call is a dropped ball for the defending team since the ball would have been inside the 18 when he stopped play for outside interference.  That does seem incredibly unfair but them's the rules.

There are two possibilities if you consider the adult a team official.  First, since this would be a violation under Law 12, the referee could play advantage, which in this case ended up with a goal being scored.  If the referee blew the whistle before the ball went into the net, the restart is a direct from kick from the spot of the infraction; since this was inside the 18, that's a PK.

For both Graham and I, the real takeaway here is that this is exactly why you don't allow anyone to hang around the goal.

You Know the Drill

Pretty much the same as last week except this time there's a full EPL calendar.  Things get underway Friday at 3 pm with a match that appears to have nothing riding on it - Leeds vs Burnley.  The Clarets fate is sealed in a bad way and Leeds are safe from both relegation and European competition.

All three Saturday 10 matches have consequences.  West Ham continue to fight for their EPL lives while Brentford are still in the hunt for Europe in one form or another.  Wolves are done but Sunderland aren't out of Europe yet.  But we will be taking in Newcastle - Brighton to see if the Magpies can drop that relegation chance to 0.00% while Brighton remain in the thick of their chance to finish 6th (or better).  Opta has it 40/33/27 favor Magpies but that sounds "opta-mistic" to me. The feature 12:30 contest is a London derby between Arsenal and Fulham.  The Gunners have no room for error and need these three points.

Sunday has three more matches that matter, spaced out in an odd way.  Bournemouth - Crystal Palace are at 9, Man United - Liverpool are at 10:30 and Aston Villa - Spurs are at 2 pm.  Villa and Liverpool will be looking to solidify their Champions League credentials.  Bournemouth will want to protect their position at 7th in the table. Spurs will be hoping for any result to help in their fight to stay up.

The matchweek concludes with a weird 10 am weekday kickoff for Chelsea - Nottingham Forest, then a more normal 3 pm start for Everton - Man City.  Again, all of those sides are either looking to end their relegation threat or improve their chances for Europe next year.

For this year's European competitions, just flip the home and away sides from last week's schedule.

We will be at Subaru Park for the Union versus Nashville as well as a sausage sandwich. Only one of those things is a sure bet to satisfy.

A heads up.  I did the Thursday edits with some kind of nasty cold or something similar.  In other words, I was less clear headed than even usual.  All errors are mine, not staff's.

Game On

Well, except for Newcastle, who continue to sink into irrelevance. I mean for the EPL title race, places in the European competitions and the final relegation spot.  

Different Tune, Same Chorus

Newcastle found a new way to get to a 2-1 loss but it still involved conceding a late goal.  After falling behind to Bournemouth in the first half, they leveled the match at 68 minutes on some good work by our only apparent offensive weapon William Osula.  He received what looked like a killer pass from Guimaraes and did some nice solo work for the goal only to see the flag go up for offside.  The replay showed Osula was indeed in an offside position when he received the pass but it also revealed that the brilliant pass from Bruno was actually an "own assist" from the foot of Bournemouth's Evanilson; thus the goal stood.  You can see the play here.  Unfortunately, the game winner would come from Truffert in the 85 minute and the Magpies got their third straight 2-1 loss.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Kinda Sorta Did

Steve: I wonder who leads the league in dropped points from tied positions.  It's gotta be Newcastle.

Dennis: Since every match starts out level at 0-0, it's simply games played minus wins and draws.  The leader is Wolves with 22, followed by Burnley 21.

Steve: 

Also, time stamps will prove that I texted the question to Dennis mere seconds before Newcastle conceded the winning goal to Bournemouth.

Gunners OutManned

Vastly more entertaining than the EFL Cup Final, this edition of Man City versus Arsenal was a tense 2-1 win for City.  The Citizens got an early lead on a nice shot by Cherki that was almost immediately negated by this incredible howler from Donnarumma.  The game winner game from Haaland, who basically outmuscled Gabriel for a header inside the six.  The two ended up in a tussle later in the contest, getting matching yellows for extracurricular activities; for our money, Gabriel should have seen red for the headbutt.

My headline is perhaps a bit unfair to Arsenal.  They did have several good chances to equalize and weren't badly outplayed by City.  Expected goals at 1.91 - 1.81 (favor City) were pretty close, suggests a draw wouldn't have been an outrageous result.

Gabriel is no angel

Perhaps the better news for Arsenal is that Opta still has them winning the league.  Their chances dropped from 85% to 73% and City still have the game in hand.  They dropped to 71% after City's 1-0 midweek win over Burnley.  However, as outlined here, Arsenal do have an easier schedule compared to Man City. The Gunners have Newcastle (well there's a sure three points), Fulham, West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace.  City have Burnley, Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa.  Should be fun to watch.

Do Spurs DeZerbi Relegated?

Well, they did have a better quality of crappy result in Roberto DeZerbi's first match in charge of Tottenham, a 2-2 draw with Brighton.  They definitely played better than in recent weeks.  And yet, it was very Spurs-like in that they gave up equalizing goals in both first half and second half stoppage time.  

Meanwhile, everybody above them were getting points too.  Leeds pretty much put their relegation chances to bed with a 3-0 win over Wolves.  Nottingham Forest also got three points from a 4-1 defeat of Burnley.  And, West Ham maintained their two point lead over Spurs with a surprisingly interesting 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.  

I was a little surprised to see that Opta has Spurs as the likely third team out.  They are at 58%, West Ham is 38%, Forest is 4%.  I see that Newcastle are .01% (so you're telling me there's still a chance).

"Post" Season

Most of the spots for next year's various European competition are wide open.  Arsenal and Man City are in for Champions League.  Wins for Man United (1-0 over Chelsea) and Aston Villa (4-3 in a wild one over Sunderland - check out Tammy Abraham's winner in stoppage time, this week's YouTubeableMoment ) have them sitting pretty.  Liverpool look like the best bet for the expected fifth spot.

The Europa League and Europa Conference League spots are in play for pretty much anyone not in the relegation race.  I kid but only sort of.  It's also complicated by who might win the FA Cup, Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League.  This article tries to make some sense of the picture.

I did get a good laugh when Ian Darke suggested during the Newcastle-Bournemouth telecast that the Magpies were sort of in the hunt for one of those spots.  You can see my reaction here.

Merry Go Round Goes Around Again

Well this is brilliant.  Chelsea have sacked Liam Rosenior after barely three months in the position - he was hired on 1/6/26.  Overall he was 11-2-11 but was 5-2-7 in EPL play.  Tuesday's 3-0 loss to Brighton was Chelsea's fifth straight league scoreless defeat.  He was having a good run in the FA Cup, though many will note that none of his four wins there were against Premier League sides. They were smoked pretty badly by PSG in the Champions League Round of 16 and lost to Arsenal in the EFL Cup semis.  Also too, they lost to Newcastle, which is hard to do these days.

But I am not here to defend his admittedly checkered record. I am here to ridicule BlueCo (Chelsea ownership) for firing their fifth manager since September 2022.  In that time, they've gone through Tuchel, Potter, Pochettino, Maresca and Rosenior.  One is left with two conclusions in situations like this and neither is flattering - either you did such an incredibly shitty job in choosing the guy that you can't afford to have him on the job for one more day, or you have the patience of a four year old.   Not that Chelsea ownership is alone on this.  We have Spurs (Frank and Tudor), West Ham (Potter), Nottingham Forest (Dyche and Postecoglou) among others.  Happy to see teams "rewarded" for this type of behavior with poor results.

    

Two Points for the Union

Jeff H provided a succinct review of the Union's 0-0 draw with DC United in last week's comments section.  For your convenience, we provide a copy here:

The U continued to struggle on a cool night in Chester. Had most of the possession, corners, shots and shots on goal. But couldn’t finish. Cav came on in the 63rd and made a difference, but to no avail. Alladoh played the whole match but was mostly invisible. 0-0 tie, so a point at home? And we are not DFL in the east. On the positive side- Kelly Davis! Attended the match, enjoyed a great sausage sandwich and convo w the Sullivan’s.

As with too many Union matches lately, the sausage sandwich was again the highlight of the trip to Subaru Park.

Wednesday's 3-3 draw in Toronto was nuts.  A quality goal from Iloski and a "lucky strike" from Danley put the Union up 2-0.  But the "fun" was just beginning.  Josh Sargent got one back at 56 minutes and Kobe Franklin leveled the match at 64 minutes.  Undeterred, the Union took the lead in the 89th minute after Bedoya did one of his patented flick-on headers to Harriel, who buried it for the winning go ahead goal.

The keeper never scores; well almost never
Chris Young/The Canadian Press via AP

You know the play where the keeper for the team trailing by a goal comes up for a free kick in the dying seconds of the game?  Works about once every 50 years, right?  Well it worked this time.  Toronto keeper Luka Gavran actually didn't score on the free kick itself but when the ball wasn't cleared he stayed in the box just in case.  He was rewarded when a high looping cross came his way and he got his 6'6" frame above everybody else and headed it in for the equalizer.  You can see the play here. Given all that Blake has done for this team we are a bit reluctant to point this out but it sure looks like he made a mistake coming out for that ball.  We also thought he got his positioning wrong on the Sargent goal.

With five points in the last three matches, things have been looking a little better but the hole is incredibly deep.

Still Busy

The weekend EPL slate is slightly truncated as they fit in three fixtures midweek to accommodate the FA Cup semis, leaving just seven for the weekend. Just about all are relevant in one way or another.

Friday has Sunderland - Nottingham Forest with Forest trying to stay ahead of Spurs and West Ham.

Bright and early Saturday am is Fulham Aston Villa; both have shots at some European competitions so they'll be trying hard.  There are three 10 am matches including West Ham - Everton, Wolves - Tottenham and Liverpool - Palace.  West Ham and Spurs are working to avoid relegation, Everton have a legitimate shot at Europa League or Europa Conference League and Liverpool can't afford to slip up if they want to hang on to a Champions League spot.  I'd probably go with West Ham - Everton as it looks the most competitive but any of them good be a good watch.

We'll be serving as an infield clerk at the Penn Relays so we won't be able to watch Arsenal - Newcastle at 12:30.  This is such an historically bad fixture for the Magpies, I can't say I'm sorry I'll miss it.  No matches on Sunday but there is Man United - Brentford on Monday.

The aforementioned FA Cup semis are Man City vs Southampton on Saturday and Chelsea - Leeds on Sunday.

Midweek has the first leg of the semi finals of the three European competitions:

Champions League has:

PSG - Bayern on Tuesday

Arsenal - Atletico Madrid on Wednesday

Europa League has:

Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa on Thursday

Braga - SC Freiburg on Thursday

Europa Conference League has:

Rayo Vallencano - Strasbourg on Thursday

Shakhtar Donetsk - Crystal Palace on Thursday

Union are away to Columbus Saturday night.

That's right, football seven days a week.

 

While We Were Away...

Limited and choppy viewing combined with a busy schedule means I missed a lot and don't remember some of what I saw.  Also, the sun was in my eyes.

Newcastle Did Not Miraculously Improve

Osula was not lying down on the job, he was scoring

In fact, they sang the same old song.  Get a 1-0 lead, play sloppy, give up late goals and lose 2-1. The Magpies goal was a marvel of coordination by Osula while lying on the pitch.  Of course, they never added to the lead and when Mateta came on at 66 minutes, the feeling of dread ramped up.  He leveled things at 80 minutes with a nice header.  A draw still seemed to be the most obvious outcome until Sven Botman's brain cramp in the box in stoppage time (more on that below) gave Palace a PK, which Mateta promptly dispatched.

Certainly the Magpies did not deserve a win here and arguably not even a draw.  They add three more to their league-leading tally of 25 points dropped from winning positions, five better than second worst West Ham.  With so much talk about possible summer departures of key players like Tonali, Guimaraes, Gordon, Livramento and Hall, you wonder where this team is heading.

Things Could Be Worse

We could be Spurs.  With a 1-0 loss to Sunderland at the Stadium of Light and West Ham's 4-0 win over Wolves, Spurs are now squarely in the relegation zone, two points behind the Hammers.  Certainly with six matches to go, this is far from over.  They have fixtures with Brighton, Wolves, Aston Villa, Leeds, Chelsea and Everton so there are some possible points to be garnered.  I'd say West Ham and Nottingham Forest have relatively similar run-ins, so this could be quite close.

The Sheen Is Coming Off the Gunners' Season

They had already lost in the League Cup final and two weeks ago they fell to Southampton in the FA Cup quarterfinals.  Their seeming stranglehold on the Premier League doesn't look so solid anymore either after a 2-1 loss at home to Bournemouth.  We'll make Alex Scott's 74th-minute gamewinner this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Yes, they do have a six point lead over Man City but City have a game in hand (vs Crystal Palace).  And look at this, the two face off this Sunday!  

Champions League went a little better but not all that much.  They squeaked by Sporting 1-0 on aggregate, getting a goal late away but not adding any insurance back at the Emirates.  They'll face Atletico Madrid in the semis and will have to do better than this to get to the final.

FA Cup

I did see most of the quarterfinal action, which varied widely in quality.  There was nothing to recommend in Man City's 4-0 trashing of Liverpool or Chelsea's beat down of Port Vale.  Things got more interesting from there. Southampton gave Arsenal a very tough time at St. Mary's.  Arsenal got a 68th minute goal from Gyokeres to level things but Shea Charles stunned the Gunners with the game winner at 86 minutes.  West Ham - Leeds was an absolute barnburner.  Leeds carried a 2-0 lead into stoppage time.  The Hammers proceeded to score two to send the match to extra time.  When that failed to produce a winner, they went on to PKs, which Leeds won 4-2.

The semis on 4/25 and 4/26 are set with Man City playing Southampton and Chelsea squaring off against Leeds.

 

The View From Europe

Four Premier League teams still alive in European competitions.

As mentioned above, Arsenal advanced, but just barely.  Liverpool were not so fortunate, putting up symmetric 2-0 losses home and away for a 4-0 loss on aggregate to PSG.  Barcelona managed to get red cards in both of their quarterfinal matches against Atletico Madrid and fell 3-2 on aggregate.  Probably should have watched the Bayern - Real Madrid series.  Bayern brought a 2-1 lead home from the first leg.  They proceeded to cough up that lead three times in the second leg before two late goals gave them a 6-4 win on aggregate.  Bayern will take on PSG in the semis.

In Europa League, Aston Villa had little trouble with Bologna winning 3-1 on the road and 4-0 at home for a 7-1 aggregate.  Nottingham Forest got a 1-1 draw away and a 1-0 home win for a 2-1 overall win to advance to the semis where they'll face Villa.  Braga and SC Freiburg is the other semi.

In Conference League, Crystal Palace's 3-0 home win held up to a 2-1 road loss to Fiorentina so they advance to the semis to take on Shaktar Donetsk.  The other semi is Rayo Vallecano versus Strasbourg.

A Rant on Grabbing

Botman is caught red and blue handed

Sven Botman gave away penalty in stoppage time thanks to a shirt pull.  I can't believe he didn't get a yellow for this.  And then a second yellow for vehemently protesting his innocence.  The shirt is pulled at least six inches away from his back.  In what world is this not a penalty?  Seriously, what is he thinking?  Newcastle are still whining about this being a soft penalty because Lerma went down so easily and suggesting maybe it should have gone to VAR.  Sorry, but the plumage don't enter into it.  Rob Jones could easily see that Botman had a fistful of shirt and Lerma was going in the opposite direction.  There is an easy way to avoid this - don't grab the shirt.

Martinez grabbing some pony tail

Then we have the straight red card for Lisandro Martinez's tug on Dominic Calvert-Lewin's pony tail during Man United's 2-1 loss to Leeds.  This was not spotted by Paul Tierney and he was sent to VAR to make the determination.  Cue the outrage.  Even color commentator Graeme LeSaux was not thrilled with the call.   LeSaux went on about how little it affected the play and wasn't thrilled that it was a VAR intervention. Except, as explained here by ESPN, Tierney had no choice - hair pulling, regardless of force, is considered violent conduct. The ESPN article does discuss whether there will be some modification this summer to that directive.

I hope they leave it alone.  There's no excuse for grabbing the hair.  Frankly, I'd be fine if they issued a directive that said if you close your hand around any part of the uniform or body part other than the face, it's a foul regardless of force.  There is simply no legitimate reason to grab.  But, but, there will be calls on every corner.  Fine, if it stops this nonsense.  Also every time I start getting soft on VAR, a play like this reminds me of the value of letting players know you likely won't get away with this stuff.

There, I feel better.

Union Split

I did see the 2-1 loss at Charlotte but all I remember now is being annoyed that it was Zaha who got the game winner.  I saw highlights of the 2-1 win at Montreal.  So the Union are on the board.  How much we make of the win is up for speculation since the U were neck and neck with them for the worst team in the Eastern Conference.  

Get Ready For Musical Chairs

Oliver Glasner has already announced he'll be leaving Crystal Palace at the end of the season.  This week we heard that Andoni Iraola will be saying goodbye to Bournemouth when his contract expires when the 25-26 season concludes.  He is being mentioned as a possible replacement for Glasner but has also been linked with the Spanish side Athletic Club.  Eddie Howe's future at Newcastle is far from certain.  Right now it looks like he makes it to summer but not clear after that.  What's this?  Mourinho is being mentioned as a replacement?  Just shoot me now.

This Week

Just a regular match week for the EPL.  The 7:30 Saturday match between Brentford and Fulham probably won't be an incentive to get up early.  Just two matches at 10 am.  We'll be taking in Newcastle - Bournemouth with minimal expectations at this point.  Your other choice is Leeds - Wolves, which probably qualifies as relegation-relevant though Leeds are looking pretty safe at this point.  The 12:30 feature match is a critical test for Spurs as they host Brighton.  Yikes, Opta has Spurs as underdogs even at home.  The special 3 pm match is also important, with Man United facing Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; that one has Champions League implications written all over it.

Sunday at 9 am is a busy time slot.  You can go for the relegation-relevant Nottingham Forest vs Burnley, a Merseyside Derby or Aston Villa - Sunderland.  Good reasons to go with any of those choices.  Then we have one vs two with Man City hosting Arsenal at 11:30, a six pointer if ever there was one.  Opta says 40% City, 34% Arsenal, 26% draw.  Hope this one lives up to its billing as last time (League Cup final) it was not all that interesting.

The match week concludes Monday with a London derby with relegation implications.  Crystal Palace are safe but West Ham are in the thick of a relegation battle so this one at Selhurst Park should be good.

The Union go for two in a row against DC United at Subaru Park.

Never Underestimate the Greed of Those Who Run This Sport

Yeah, I said I was taking some time off but a couple of issues surfaced that are better addressed before I forget about them.

FIFA Announces World Cup Matches Will Be 4 Quarters, Not 2 Halves

Okay, that's not exactly how the announcement read but it is the de facto outcome.

FIFA has mandated hydration breaks for every match of the World Cup regardless of weather conditions.  Of course this is sold as a "player welfare" measure.  We do not disagree that hydration breaks are indeed intended to safeguard the athletes' health - when the weather conditions justify them.  We also don't disagree that playing in North American in June and July, we would expect numerous occasions when conditions would dictate breaks.

But that's not the same thing as a mandated three minute break.  This is now a guaranteed stoppage that will need to be filled with commercials.  And just how lucrative these breaks may be is revealed in the debate and confusion over exactly what will be allowed to fill this space.  Chestnut Hill soccer alum Henry Bushnell has an excellent article here outlining the issues.  Will the breaks be sponsored by Powerade or Gatorade?  Either way somebody's gonna make some good money.  Also, Ted Lasso was right.

Bad Lawyering?

Then, courtesy of BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W,  we have this story about how West Ham United is balking at letting the city use London Stadium for the World Athletic Championships (think World Cup for track and field) in 2029.  

Recall that the stadium was built as the track and field venue for the 2012 Olympic Games.  There was much concern about what would happen to the place after the Games; that history is chronicled here.  The upshot is that West Ham got an incredibly sweet deal on a lease for a brand new stadium.

London Stadium at its 2012 opening
Photo: Getty Images/Michael Steele

Wait a minute, if West Ham are tenants in, not owners of, London Stadium, how are they able to keep the city from using the venue?  This is where the bad lawyering comes in.  Apparently the city did not think through the possibilities and essentially gave West Ham veto rights during the football season.  This would not be the first time the lease hasn't worked for the city.  In 2023 West Ham qualified for the Europa Conference League, a new European competition.  Because that competition wasn't specifically mentioned in the lease, West Ham was able to use the stadium for free for those matches.  Yes, the Conference League didn't exist at the time the lease was drawn up but wouldn't you think the lawyers would be smart enough to include some catchall reference to "any other football competition" or language to similar effect.

There are many ways out of this mess and I hope it doesn't involve some compensation to West Ham or the Premier League for that matter.  They've already robbed the city blind on this deal.  The says it needs three weekends.  Since EPL teams rarely play consecutive home matches, it's likely that at most two matches would be affected.  With cooperative scheduling from the EPL that could easily drop to one.  And with a little more help, they could just switch the home and away dates for that team.  It would be a slight disadvantage to West Ham as they would play three consecutive away matches early in the season.  That would be balanced however by an extra home match somewhere later in the season.

British middle distance runner Keely Hodgkinson put herself in the debate, first humorously, then a bit more seriously.  As you can read here, her opening salvo was along the lines of we'll win more medals in this event than West Ham have earned in 130 years.  She's not that far off.  West Ham do have a couple of FA Cup trophies and did win the 2023 Europa Conference League title (a third tier European competition).  On the other hand, they've never finished first in the Premier League title and in fact have never won the first division of English football at any point in their history.  In subsequent posts, she notes that West Ham is denying English athletes to compete in front of home fans.

On top of all this, there is a non-zero chance that West Ham won't even be in the Premier League in 2029.  They are in a pitched battle to avoid relegation this year and should they fail to stay up, there's no guarantee they'll come back up soon.   Oy, this is complicating my relegation rooting strategy. 

Hell, since I'm here already, I may as well comment on the FIFA playoff results.

How Many Countries in This Country Made It to the World Cup?  

Two -  England and Scotland already qualified in the group stage.  Northern Ireland fell, not unexpectedly, to Italy in the first playoff round.  There were higher hopes for Wales, especially after they carried a 1-0 lead late into their playoff match against Bosnia & Herzegovina.  Then they surrendered a late equalizer and ended up losing in the PK shootout.  That day was not a good one for the region, as Ireland coughed up a 2-0 lead on Czechia and also lost in PKs.

Not again? Italy misses out on another World Cup
Getty Images

The first round went according to plan but the second did not.  Of the favorites, only Turkiye won their "final."  Most surprising was Italy losing on PKs to Bosnia & Herzegovina.  The Italians did dig themselves a hole by going down a man late in the first half but managed to play to a 1-1 draw through regulation and extra time.  Surely Italy would be favored in the shootout, especially with Bananarama Donnaruma in goal.  Except that doesn't help when you fire one over the bar and slam another one into it.  So this is a third straight World Cup without Italy, which could lead to the ouster of the current government.  Czechia upset Denmark, also in a PK shootout and Sweden bested the lightly favored Poland 3-2 in regular time.

In the international playoffs, Jamaica barely squeaked past New Caledonia in the first round and offered nothing in a 0-1 loss to Congo in the final so the Reggae Boyz will be sitting this one out.  As expected, Iraq beat Bolivia in the other bracket.

Groups of Death Revisited

So how do the upsets change the group stage dynamics?  Let's revise the analysis I did back in December to see what's up.  Recall that I suggested it's not so much the average ranking within the group but how closely the teams are ranked.  Also remember that FIFA world rankings can be suspect (looking right at you USA).

Here's the table with the rankings:

The warning signs for the US that I noted before are still there.  Group D has the best ranked third and fourth "seeds" of any group.  Also, the spread from one to four is easily the smallest of any group.

Looking at strength of schedule, things don't get better.

The US have by far the toughest schedule of any of the top ranked countries and the spread in strength of schedule across the group is the tightest.  Group F looks pretty tough too.  Big winner from the playoffs is Switzerland and Group B.  When we assumed Italy was the playoff winner, Switzerland's strength of schedule was 30.00.  Slot Bosnia into the group and the Swiss now have the easiest schedule of any country in the tournament; Canada was a big winner too.  However, I am going to stay with Group H as the Group of Lollipops and Unicorns as Spain and Uruguay look to have big advantages over the third and fourth ranked team in their group.

The Tudor Reign Endeth

Igor Tudor was given seven games and 44 days to correct years of dysfunction at Tottenham and of course failed miserably.  "By mutual consent," he and Spurs parted company on Sunday.  This turnstile approach to managers is utter nonsense.  And my relegation rooting strategy has already changed from two paragraphs ago.  Wolves and Burnley are toast so the choices are Nottingham Forest, Spurs and West Ham.  Forest are definitely my first choice to go.  The stadium hassle had me ready to dump West Ham but this managerial change made me switch to Spurs; especially since I'd like to see Nuno keep West Ham up while two clubs who sacked him fight it out for the last spot.

What Slowdown in the Schedule?

Not sure why I was thinking this was going to be a quiet period.  The FA Cup Quarterfinals are Saturday and Sunday.  Champions League, Europa Cup and Europa Conference League have the first legs of their quarterfinal series Tuesday-Thursday.  Then, EPL action returns from Friday to Monday.  For those with an iron constitution, you can also check out the Union's away match versus Charlotte on Saturday.  Check your local listings as they say.

On the road next week so chances of a blog post are low, but I said that this week so who knows.

 

Last Call For World Cup

Unfortunately, it's not Friday morning.  I wanted to do a mid-week post to alert you to the FIFA playoffs for the final World Cup spots.  While I'm here I might as well report on the weekend.  Mostly disappointing results but your actual mileage may vary (looking at you Dennis).

Last Chance

Six spots are still open for the 48-team World Cup tournament.  Four will go to European countries and two are reserved for international playoff winners.

Europe has a two game playoff with four groups of four.  The first round is Thursday with the "finals" on Tuesday.  Here are the matchups:

Thursday 26 March 2026

A Italy vs Northern Ireland
A Wales vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
B Ukraine vs Sweden
B Poland vs Albania
C Türkiye vs Romania (18:00 CET)
C Slovakia vs Kosovo
D Denmark vs North Macedonia
D Czechia vs Republic of Ireland

Play-off finals

Tuesday 31 March 2026

A Wales / Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy / Northern Ireland
B Ukraine / Sweden vs Poland / Albania
C Slovakia / Kosovo vs Türkiye / Romania
D Czechia / Republic of Ireland vs Denmark / North Macedonia

The winner of the Group C (likely Turkiye?) thread will be slotted into the US group for the World Cup.  Some big names in there - Italy and Sweden come to mind.  FS1 and FS2 have some of these matches.

There are two international "pathways."  One includes Jamaica playing New Caledonia with the winner facing Congo DR.  The survivor there goes into Group K for the World Cup.  We have some interest in seeing Jamaica advance based on familiar names in the squad like Andre Blake (Union), Leon Bailey (Aston Villa), Damion Lowe (Union alum) and Isaac Hayden (Newcastle alum), among others.  Pathway 2 has Bolivia vs Suriname with the winner to face Iraq for a chance to be in Group I.  

"Pathetic, Weak, Lazy and Poor"

Brobbey finishes Newcastle

Thus was Newcastle icon Alan Shearer's unsparing criticism of the Magpies' second half performance in the 1-2 loss to Sunderland at St. James' Park.  He was being kind.  Newcastle got a lucky early first half goal on a Sunderland giveaway, then played okay - not great - for the rest of the half.  In the second half, Sunderland outeverythinged the Magpies.  So many problems with Newcastle's play; we'll go with ball watching as the most annoying.  Any doubt that Sunderland deserved the win is extinguished with the xG figures - 2.48 to 1.29 favor Sunderland.

So, is the lackadaisical second half showing on Eddie Howe or the players?  Answer:

They were clearly surprised by the Sunderland response.  But there was time to react and they did not.  Echoing my thoughts from last week, I am disappointed not because they lost to Sunderland but because they have clearly revealed themselves as a mediocre mid-level side.  To wit, they now sit 12th in the table.  Oh, and Newcastle again lead the league in dropped points from winning positions with 22; pretty sure that West Ham are second with 20.  We're number one!

An Ugly Day at St. James' Park

As if the loss wasn't bad enough, there were other issues Sunday.  First, prior to the match, there were violent clashes between Newcastle and Sunderland fans outside the stadium.  The sordid details can be had here. Hmm, not sure how that squares with the following as reported by the BBC:

"The policing operation around the match between Newcastle United FC and Sunderland AFC passed largely without incident" Ch Supt Mark Hall said.

Hate to think what they would consider an incident.  Fun times continued in the stadium as the match had to be stopped after allegations of racial abuse targeting Sunderland's Lutsharel Geertruida were reported to referee Anthony Taylor.  At least the Newcastle management response to this looks appropriate:

"Our stance is clear -- we do not tolerate discrimination of any form. We will work with the authorities to fully investigate and will ensure any individuals are identified and held accountable."

What happened to my beautiful game?

Conversation That Didn't Take Place But Most Certainly Could Have

Michael: Magpie fans will be drowning their sorrows at the Akenside Pub.

Steve:  Except now it's call the Ache-inside.

Meanwhile...

Spurs were throwing away all that good work last week against Liverpool.  Facing Nottingham Forest, a side one place and one point behind them, Tottenham absolutely came up flat in an 0-3 loss.  I did not see the game as it conflicted with Aston Villa - West Ham but I was following on line.  If memory serves, I don't think Spurs got a shot on goal until like 70 minutes.  The xG at 1.43 - 1.44, barely favoring Forest, hints that maybe it was closer than the score indicates.  Various accounts on the web suggest otherwise.  Whichever, this was a crushing six point loss that drops Spurs to 17th place, just one point above West Ham.  

Somewhere the Sun Was Shining

And that somewhere was Birmingham.  Aston Villa got a workmanlike 2-0 win over West Ham that featured goals from John McGinn and Ollie Watkins plus the return of Yuri Tielemans.  The Villans were certainly not overwhelming but it was a step in the right direction.  

Age is just a number: 35 year old Danny Welbeck
nets the first of his brace against Liverpool
Photograph: Simon Dack/TPI/Shutterstock

Villa also had a great weekend on the out-of-town scoreboard.  On Friday, Man United coughed up
leads of 1-0 and 2-1 in a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth.  The Cherries' second goal came courtesy of a Harry Maguire DOGSO in the box at 78 minutes.  Man United felt hard done by the call, especially as a "similar" play was not called in their favor; ESPN's VAR review, available here, suggests the ref got both calls correct.  Aston Villa's good fortunes continued on Saturday when Brighton knocked off Liverpool 2-1 on a brace from the ageless Danny Welbeck.  That was followed by Everton's 3-0 pasting of Chelsea. Brentford's 0-0 draw with Leeds didn't hurt either.

All this means that Aston Villa go into the international break in 4th, just one point behind Man United.  Liverpool trail by five with Chelsea six back.  A few weeks to heal won't hurt either.

We Watch So You Don't Have To

Did you miss the Carabao Cup Final in which Man City beat Arsenal 2-0 ?  Even if you did, you didn't.  Arsenal had the run of play in the first half but failed to score.  Though City were better in the second half, the match was still 0-0 heading into the 60th minute.  Then, Arsenal keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga absolutely butchered Cherki's cross, letting it go through his hands right to Nico O'Reilly, who buried it from about two feet out.  You can see the play here.  O'Reilly added a second minutes later and the match was essentially over.  We needn't spend any more time on it.

No Better This Side of the Pond

The Union's 1-2 loss at Subaru Park to the Chicago Fire wasn't fun either.  They did manage a non-PK goal but it was pretty goofy.  You can see it here.  Though it was good work by Iloski to get his head on the ball, I'd argue that it was a mistake by keeper Brady getting caught in no man's land.  The xG was horrible with the Union at .6 compared to Chicago's 2.5.  Hard to know how much is just the low expectations I have at this point but at no point did I feel like the Union would win this match.

The debate is on about whether this is simply a poor start or is this team just not good enough.  I read about the need for patience with a guy like Alladoh as he is just 20; however, now we hear that he is out for an undisclosed period  while "dealing with a couple of things personally."  It's also fair to point out there are some talented players on the squad - Blake, Makhanya, Iloski, Lukic, for example.  On the other hand, they don't have a proven finisher (could be Alladoh but he hasn't proven it yet), with Wagner's departure they don't have anyone who can reliably deliver the ball into the box, and the back line is incredibly thin right now (Ndinga has not impressed so far and I swear it looks like Makhanya doesn't trust him).  These are serious talent gaps that patience will not fill. 

 

With work and travel and a lighter soccer schedule, I'll likely take one or two weeks off.  

Don't forget the FA Cup Quarter Finals the weekend of 4/4-5:

Saturday 4 April 2026

• 12.45pm – Manchester City v. Liverpool on TNT Sports 1 and HBO Max
• 5.15pm – Chelsea v. Port Vale on TNT Sports 1, HBO Max, BBC One and iPlayer 
• 8pm – Southampton v. Arsenal on TNT Sports 1, HBO Max, BBC One and iPlayer

Sunday 5 April 2026

• 4.30pm – West Ham United v. Leeds United on TNT Sports 1 and HBO Max 

And, if you're still up for it, there's the Union at Charlotte on Saturday 4/4. 

Regular EPL programming returns Friday April 10th.

No Hardware This Year

With Barcelona's second half onslaught leading to an 8-3 aggregate loss, Newcastle is now officially out of the running for any hardware this year.  The Union is officially out of Concacaf Champions League and sucking wind in MLS play.

On A Brighter Note

Newcastle's week did get off to good start with a surprise 1-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  Guimaraes is still out and Tonali was absent due to illness so the 2 in the 4-2-3-1 were Willock and Ramsey.  Ruh roh.  Both came through big time.  The game's only goal came on a through ball from Livramento to Willock, who waited just long enough to make the pass to Gordon, who despite nearly blowing the first touch, slotted the ball in for the game winner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

The stats are somewhat mixed, suggesting maybe the Magpies stole this one.  Possession was 67/39 and shots were 22/7 in favor of Chelsea; on the other hand shots on target were 5/3 and xG was 1.41/1.39 favor Newcastle.  Watching, it felt like the win was deserved.  

The three points notwithstanding, Newcastle are officially out of the title race.  Actually, they were mathematically eliminated last week but I just didn't notice.  So there will be no trophies Tyneside this year.

ICYMI

Blues on three everybody?

The first image from the Chelsea - Newcastle match was quite jarring.  There stands referee Paul Tierney in the middle of Chelsea's huddle (see picture left).  Tierney says it wasn't his fault, he told them he wasn't moving off the midfield spot.  Of course opinions abound on this issue, ranging from the optics were horrible and Tierney should have moved to Chelsea were being disrespectful.  However, as detailed here, it looks as if Chelsea were told specifically not to do the huddle around the kickoff spot.  If true, then Tierney's error was in not sternly telling them to move their party elsewhere.

And Another Thing

BFS Spurs' correspondent Michael B suggests that Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior is actually Darryl Nelson, the actor who played Elaine's "black" boyfriend on Seinfeld.  Hmm, come to think of it, have you ever seen them together?

Villa Still Ailing

Granted going to Old Trafford to face a new manager bouncing Man United side wasn't the best way to get back in form.  And, they did play somewhat better.  The problem of course is that "somewhat better" is not good enough for a top five finish.  The game was close on the scoreboard for a while until Man United pulled away with goals at 71 and 81 minutes.  The 3-1 final felt about right, although note that xG was 1.1/1, barely favoring Manchester.

Signs of Life From Spurs

Relegation is still a threat however as all six of the bottom sides picked up a point this weekend.  Still, this was important as Spurs were down 0-1 at Anfield but played a solid second half and fully deserved the 1-1 draw and the point.  West Ham, on the other hand, clearly stole their point from Man City.  The final was 1-1 but the stats were highly skewed; possession was 71/29, shots 24/1, shots on target 6/1 and xG 2.03/.54.  Yes, West Ham scored on their only shot of the day.  Didn't see Burnley -Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest - Fulham or Crystal Palace - Leeds and that looks to be a good thing as all three were 0-0.  Wolves' 2-2 draw at Brentford was a good watch; the problem for Wolves is that one point at a time will not get them out of the bottom three.

Realistically, there is little to no hope for Burnley or Wolves.  The last relegation spot however is up for grabs:

15. Leeds - 32 points

16. Spurs - 30 points

17. Nottingham Forest - 29 points

18. West Ham - 29 points

Spurs' superior goal difference over all three rivals is essentially worth a point.

Is The Race Over

Thanks to Man City's draw with West Ham, Arsenal's lead grew to nine points as they beat Everton 2-0 on two very late goals.  One of them was from Max Dowman, who at 16 years and 73 days became the youngest goal scorer in Premier League history.  You can see the play here. Don't want to be too much of a spoil sport here, but, notice that his run came after a stoppage time corner when every Everton player, including keeper Jordan Pickford, were crammed into the Arsenal penalty box.  So, his solo run was unopposed and he put the ball into an untended goal.  Just sayin'.

Three Goal Leads Are Tough to Overcome

Not much of an improvement for EPL sides in Europe this week.  Chelsea surrendered a goal right away, then allowed two more to complete their 2-8 loss to PSG.  Man City gave up a goal and had a man sent off at 20 minutes.  Somehow they managed to only lose 1-2 for a 1-5 aggregate loss.  At least Spurs scored the opener and cut into their three goal deficit.  That set up a back-and-forth with Atleti that ended with a 3-2 Spurs result but a 5-7 aggregate loss.

Of course, you don't have to start with a three-goal deficit to get blown out.  Newcastle were 1-1 starting the day, fell behind quickly, responded, fell behind again, responded, then gave up five unanswered.  The first half was possibly one of the most fun 45 minutes of the year; well, except for Trippier's late foul in the box (which could have been DOGSO) that put Barca up 4-3.  Things fell apart from there and ended in an 8-3 aggregate loss.

So the EPL is left with just Arsenal (2-0 second leg for 3-1 overall against Leverkusen) and Liverpool (4-0 second leg versus Galatasaray for a 4-1 win).  

Europa Cup results were better as both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest advanced to the quarter finals.  Crystal Palace also advanced in Europa Conference League play.

Fast Forwarded Through the Union

It has come to this.  We dvred the Union vs Atlanta because it started while the Newcastle -Chelsea match was still in progress.  We got an ominous text from Dennis's teammate Jeremy (who by the way as a Wolves and Union fan deserves a special place in heaven) before we even started to watch the game.  Still we plunged in.  The first half offered little reason for optimism, with Atlanta scoring in the 28th minute with a goal from the awesomely named Emmanuel Latte Lath.  The U had a chance to level right before half time but Iloski could not convert the PK.  When Atlanta scored early in the second half, Dennis and I looked at each other and I knew what to do - move to fast forward.  Note that you can still follow the game so we felt the decision was correct after we saw Atlanta add a third at 68 minutes.  We did get to see Anello's nice but irrelevant header goal at 88 that made the final 3-1.  

A curious stat is that xG was 3.0/2.3 favor the Union.  Even taking out the PK, that suggests a level xG from open play.  I can't say that it felt that way viewing, though maybe speeding through leaves the wrong impression.  With Atlanta, Orlando and New England picking up their first wins, the Union fall to the bottom of the table, the only pointless side in the Eastern Conference MLS.

Move to mid-week and there was a moderate improvement in their 1-1 draw with Club America in Concacaf Champions Cup play.  The bad news is that wasn't a goal from open play but another PK.  Also, the 1-1 draw meant a 2-1 aggregate loss so the Union are out of this competition.  Buried deep in MLS standings, though it is early, it is hard to see the Union taking home any trophies this year.

And Another Thing

We also found out about this:

Major League Soccer has suspended Philadelphia Union sporting director Ernst Tanner without pay through June 1, 2026 for violating the policies and standards of professional conduct required of league and club leadership.

More details can be had here.  Sorry, but this leaves me feeling that the organization is not just poorly run but is morally bankrupt.  Same for the MLS.  The allegations were out there and supposedly both the Union and MLS investigated but took no action.  Then, a reporter for The Guardian published a story about the situation that looked so bad that MLS and the Union "reopened" the investigation.  And the upshot is this three month suspension?  Hard to think this is not a slap on the wrist. Then look at Tanner's statement:

“I regret the impact that this situation has had on the Philadelphia Union organization and its supporters.  I remain proud of my work with the Philadelphia Union and look forward to my return and future work with the team.”

He's basically saying I'm sorry if you were offended by my actions, not I'm sorry for what I did.  I don't care how good a job he did as a sporting director, this is not cool.

The "We Fired Nuno and Now Face Relegation Derby"

Nottingham Forest and Spurs face off in a critical match fraught with relegation implications.  Hey wait a minute.  Wolves fired Nuno too and they now face relegation.  And West Ham hired Nuno and find themselves in the relegation mix too.  As my investment advisor consistently reminds me, past performance does not guarantee future results.  However, none of Wolves, Forest or Spurs were relegated when Nuno was in charge so we're going with West Ham to stay up.

Tiny Weary Derby

People are certainly making a big deal of Sunday's Newcastle -Sunderland Tyne Wear Derby.  As Dennis has asked in the past, are these derbies more of a thing for fans than the players?  Both these sides are pretty much buried in mid-table with no threat of relegation but little chance of qualifying for European competitions.  I just want the three points and it doesn't matter that Sunderland is the opponent.  But then I live 3,415 miles from Newcastle so what do I know?  Newcastle are big favorites  - 61/19 at Opta.  That's at 8 am on Sunday (England moves their clocks forward Sunday at 2 am).

The "bigger" fixture is the EFL Carabao Cup final between Man City and Arsenal, Sunday at 12:30.  They play at Wembley and the match is on Paramount+.  Opta has Arsenal as the big favorite at 52/25 with a 23% chance of the match going to extra time.  

That final means a truncated EPL schedule.  There is a fun Friday 4 pm fixture between Bournemouth and Man United.  Saturday has games lined up all day but they won't exactly leave you drooling:

8:30 Brighton - Liverpool

11 Fulham - Burnley

1:30 Eveton - Chelsea

4 pm Leeds - Brentford

On Sunday at 10:15, we have the Nuno Derby referenced plus Aston Villa vs West Ham. 

Between the FA Cup action next weekend and the international break, the EPL will be off until April 10th.

If you can stomach it, the Union are home versus Chicago at 4:30 on Saturday.  

After seemingly non-stop football for most of the winter, the schedule won't be as demanding for a couple of weeks.