The Great Escape

Musical Accompaniment for this post

That was a nerve wracking two hours on Sunday.  But things turned out pretty well for the clubs near and dear to BFS and its loyal readers.  Most especially Aston Villa.


One Kick Away from Disaster

Aston Villa did indeed pull off the Great Escape, managing a 1-1 draw with West Ham while Watford lost 2-3 to Arsenal.  The draw fortunately made Bournemouth's 3-1 win over Everton irrelevant.  And, at no point during the proceedings did Villa drop into the bottom three in the live table.  But their situation was so precarious, that for most of the two hours, merely surrendering a goal to West Ham would have seen them in the relegation zone.  Here's the timeline with Villa's cushion:

11:00 - No cushion as all three matches were tied
11:05 - One goal cushion as Watford are 0-1 to Arsenal but Bournemouth level with Everton
11:13 - The cushion is gone as Bournemouth take a 1-0 lead on Everton
11:41 - A three goal cushion as Everton level with Bournemouth and Watford are down 1-3
11:46 - Back to zero as Bournemouth score in stoppage time to lead 2-1 at halftime
12:43 - A one goal cushion as Jack Grealish puts Villa up 1-0
12:44 - Back to zero when Yarmolenko scores for West Ham to make the score 1-1
12:54 - Final whistle and Aston Villa survive

Back for another year in the Premier League

By my count that's about 14 minutes over the course of the two hours during which Villa were not hanging on by a thread.  And even at the final whistle, did you notice that Villa manager Dean Smith told his charges not to celebrate?  See there was still stoppage time at the Emirates and though Watford were down 2-3, two late goals from the Hornets and a win over Arsenal would have snatched the last safe spot.  Stranger things have happened this season, right?  But they didn't and the celebration began in earnest.

Grealish's goal is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Maybe a bit of a mistake from Fabianski but Grealish did nice work to create the opening and the shot.  Yarmolenko's goal, barely a minute after, was an unlucky deflection that meant we'd have to spend the rest of the match on the edge of our seats.  Dennis points out that the percentage chance for Aston Villa relegation since the restart went as follows: 71,73,74,75,77,86,38,0.

And we must return to the first match of the restart, the one in which goal-line technology failed to note that Sheffield United had indeed put the ball past the goal line against Aston Villa.  We wondered at the time if the 0-0 draw instead of an 0-1 loss would have any consequences.  It did.  Villa edged Bournemouth by a single point in the standings; take away that point and Bournemouth finish 17th on goal differential.  There is some noise that the Bournemouth board is considering legal action.  We note the following from the IFAB Laws of the Game (item 4. in the section entitled Video Assistant Referee protocol):

Match validity

In principle, a match is not invalidated because of:

• malfunction(s) of the VAR technology (as for goal line technology (GLT))
• wrong decision(s) involving the VAR (as the VAR is a match official)
• decision(s) not to review an incident
• review(s) of a non-reviewable situation/decision

Seems unlikely.


Champions League Spots Go To Man United and Chelsea

The beginning of the end for Leicester's CL hopes

Like the relegation scrap, the ultimate fortunes of the Champions League contenders hung in the balance for much of the time too.  Sort of.  Chelsea needed most of the first half to secure their berth.  A free kick by Mason Mount in the first minute of stoppage time followed by this amazing goal from Olivier Giroud two minutes later sent Chelsea on their way.  Things were a little tighter at King Power as Leicester and Man United went into the 71st minute level at 0-0.  While that result would have been enough to send the Red Devils into the Champions League, I'm guessing Jeff H and other United fans breathed a sigh of relief as Anthony Martial was brought down in the box and Bruno Fernandes converted the PK.  A second stoppage time goal made the final 2-0.

That Man United and Chelsea join Liverpool and Man City as the EPL Champions League representatives is hardly a surprise.  But it was great theater for us neutrals to watch it play out.


Thursdays in Baku

With Wolves in trouble at Chelsea, all Tottenham needed was a draw at Crystal Palace to grab 6th place and a spot in the Europa League.  Harry Kane got Spurs off to good start with a goal in the 13th minute; Palace leveled things early in the second half.  Another goal from the Eagles would have knocked Spurs down to 7th but Tottenham held on for the draw and the berth.  As we've noted, it is a mixed blessing.  Participation in Europa League means Thursday evening matches in exotic places on the continent like Baku, Azerbaijan as well a lot of Sunday EPL matches, guaranteed to tax a squad over the course of a long season.  Still, we suspect that ultimately Michael B and Spurs fans prefer the 6th place finish to, say, coming in behind Arsenal.

Note that Wolves still have two possible routes to European competition.  They could still win this year's edition of Europa League which would get them a Champions League spot.  Or, Chelsea could win the FA Cup, which would then make 7th place good enough for next year's Europa competition.


A Footnote on Newcastle

They lost 1-3 to Liverpool.  Didn't see it but the stats seem to support a result in that range.  This wasn't a crucial match in any respect as most of the records Liverpool had been chasing were out of reach and Newcastle were going to finish 13th or 14th anyway (Palace draw meant it was 13th). 

Now comes the important stuff.  Is the takeover going to happen?  What personnel changes will we see if it does happen?  If it doesn't happen?  We will be unpacking the season in more detail in a few weeks but I suspect that, under the microscope, it won't look as good as it appeared.  I sense there was a lot of luck involved here and if so, we need some serious upgrading or 2020/21 will be another season spent fighting relegation.


In Praise of the EPL

In a time of 60-game MLB seasons, rejiggered NBA and NHL competition and who knows what from the NFL, we take a minute to laud the efforts of the EPL to offer an unabridged season offering excitement down to the final whistle.  It wasn't a gimmicky alternative and I think it showed in the intensity of the players' efforts.  Ya done good.


Union Continue with Smoke and Mirrors

Honestly, if 538 metrics are to be believed, the Union should have been out of the MLS Is Back Tournament long ago.  Yet once again on Monday night, there they were grabbing a 1-0 win from the New England Revolution.  Most of the regular stats are pretty close but expected goals say the Union might have stolen this one.  Certainly it seemed New England were the more attacking side in the second half.  And then Sergio Santos, who had missed easier chances earlier in the evening, scored on this difficult shot, against the run-of-play.  The win moves them into the quarterfinals against Sporting KC.


There Is Still Stuff to Watch

Though we will miss the daily EPL action, you can find plenty to keep you occupied.  Sure it's an artificial competition but the MLS Is Back Tournament offers quarterfinal matches from Thursday to Saturday.  The Union are first on that list, facing Sporting KC Thursday night at 8 pm on ESPN.  Friday has Orlando vs LAFC at 7:30 on FS1.  There are two on Saturday - San Jose - Minnesota at 8 pm on ESPN2  and NYCFC vs Portland at 10:30 on FS1.  Sem-finals are Wednesday (FS1) and Thursday (ESPN2) evenings at 8 pm.  Final is Tuesday 8/11.

Though you need to stream it, Saturday is the FA Cup Final featuring Chelsea and Arsenal.  Match is at 12:30 but is only available on ESPN+.  Chelsea are arguably the better side but Arsenal might have more to play for. 

And Champions League action is coming back soon.   The round of 16 matches wrap up on 8/7-8.  Single elimination (as opposed to two-legged) quarterfinals are offered up, one a day, 8/12-15.  Semis are 8/18 and the final is 8/23.

Plenty to check out, unless you're too busy watching baseball.