38 of 42

With two more wins, the Union extended their unbeaten streak to 14, garnering 38 out of a possible 42 points since MLS action resumed after the World Cup.  Newcastle, not so much.  We'll start with the good news first.

Talking Union

They didn't exactly blow Real Salt Lake away but the 2-1 final is a fair result.  RSL didn't park the bus but they did put up a solid defensive effort.  Damiani broke through at 31 minutes to give the U the lead. It was back and forth thereafter, though it did feel like they would hang on.  The "insurance" goal was a long time in coming and wasn't even ruled a goal on the pitch.  You can see Iloski's game winner here.  This was a three-part VAR, questioning whether there was 1) a foul in the buildup, 2) offside and 3) a handball by Iloski.  After a long review, the answers were no, no and no respectively and the goal was given.  Good thing too because Union would surrender a goal late in stoppage.

Nightmare for MLS?  Sullivan is 2nd in
assists and Iloski 3rd in goals

Move ahead to Wednesday in Chicago, where things were a bit more difficult, at least for the first half.  I would have said the U were the better side in the first so of course Chicago scored in the 44th minute.  The good news is the seeds of victory were sown shortly after that when ex-Union player Jack Elliott was shown a second yellow shortly before the first half whistle.  The Union got after the Fire right from the second half kickoff.  Goals from Iloski and Damiani at 48 and 55 minutes essentially put matters to rest; Damiani's second at 67 minutes finished the job.  

Six more points and the Union are 12-2-0 since the restart; quick math tells us that's 38 out of possible 42 points on offer.  The win over Chicago was a six-pointer, leaving the U just three points out of fourth.  The road gets tough from here, with upcoming matches versus 5th, 3rd and 1st place, i.e teams above them in the standings.

They Don't Like Mondays (apologies to The Boomtown Rats )

Newcastle's buzz kill 4-1 loss to Coventry City brought their record on Mondays this season to 0-0-2, with the combined score of the losses 1-8.  They got off to a bad start when Hornicek didn't keep possession of a shot and in the course of trying to retrieve the rebound, fouled Cherif for a PK, which Rudoni converted.  The Mapgies dominated the rest of the half but failed to score, thanks to some heroic work by defender Bobby Thomas.  Cherif blasted a shot early in the second half to double the lead.  Sven Botman's 70th minute laser offered a small window of hope that was closed by Coventry goals at 81 and 86 minutes.  Ironically, it was the first match this season in which they had a higher xG (1.77-1.51).  Guess that makes up for all the points they've accumulated while getting beat on xG.

So their finishing wasn't great and there was a bit of bad luck.  Hornicek didn't look great in goal and Botman had a tough day, though he did contribute a goal.  They also look like they are trying to figure out who they are.  Fernandez-Pardo was new up top, Nico Gonzalez is still working his way into the mix.  Miley was pressed into service at right back.  In other words, I'm trying hard not to panic yet.

Conversation That Most Assuredly Took Place

Steve (after Newcastle scored to cut the deficit to 2-1): Plenty of time...to lose 3-1

Dennis (after Coventry scored to make it 3-1): Prophetic

Steve: Pathetic you mean

Not Worth A Row of Beans?

Jon Champion speculated that was the value of Man City's 3-0 rout of Liverpool given the uncertainty surrounding possible sanctions for City's financial violations.  His point is perhaps dramatic but nonetheless fair; any penalty that involves point deductions or UEFA competition bans or demotion could easily alter the implications of on-field results.  The FA needs to get this process moving.

Champion's description could also apply to the time spent watching the match.  Liverpool had the run of play early but didn't capitalize and City worked their way back into the game.  But mostly it felt like one of those boring heavyweight championship boxing matches I remember watching as a kid; nothing really happened.  Then Gravenberch got a second yellow (soft IMHO) and 15 minutes later it was 3-0 City.  Maybe Gravenberch's sending off only hastened Liverpool's demise but it would have been more interesting to see this one play out at even strength.

Snatching Key Points

Ipswich Town have an interesting MO that we may want to remember should they avoid relegation.  For the third time this year they defeated a relegation rival with a very late goal.  Earlier this year, they turned draws into wins with goals at 90 minutes against Sunderland and Crystal Palace.  Saturday was even more dramatic.  Down 0-1 to Fulham late, the Tractor Boys got an 88th minute goal from Outtara then the game winner at 90+2 from Dara O'Shea.   You can see the goals here.  Nine points rather than just two from these matches seems huge.  

Coulda Shoulda Woulda

From a managed expectations perspective, Aston Villa's 2-2 draw with Brentford was good enough.  After all, the Bees sit third in the table and are one of three teams without a loss after six matches (Man City and Everton!? are the other two) so it sounded like a good result.   From a factual perspective, Villa probably should have won the match.  They led in most categories, most notably expected goals which were 2.08-1.18.  That actually seems low for the Villans; I recall a number of missed opportunities that seemed pretty good.  I don't remember this aspect - Brentford had 24 fouls (vs 7 for Aston Villa) and five yellow cards. I guess with the poor start to the season the draw seemed okay until you looked closer.

Unsolved Riddles

Both Man United and Spurs remain enigmas after their 1-1 draw at Old Trafford. Maybe Spurs were a little better in the first half but it ended 0-0.  Mbeumo put United up at 73 minutes and when Bentancur was sent off for a head butt at 78 you figured this one was over.  Except Solanke grabbed the equalizer at 90+2.

So Man United could only manage a draw at home, were out xGed 1.76 - .89 and couldn't hold the lead despite being up a man.  Spurs, though likelier the much happier of the two, still had trouble putting the ball in the net and were plagued with last year's bugaboo, the stupid red card.  To be fair, this did look like progress for Tottenham and maybe things started to move in the right direction.

Maybe You Shouldn't Answer the Phone For A While

Glasner: His predecessors lasted
8, 25, and 20 games

Given Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis' documented trigger finger when it comes to sacking managers, Oliver Glasner is on shaky ground after their 3-1 loss to Crystal Palace.  They started well enough with an early goal from Ndoye but were unlucky after that. I did see the match and the Palace goals did seem against the run of play; xG ended up 3.35 - 2.29 favor Forest.  At 15th in the table, two points above the relegation zone, I'd hold off on buying that house if I were Glasner.

Others

Arsenal stay 2nd after an underwhelming 2-1 win over Sunderland.  Brighton moved into 3rd with a 2-0 win at Sunderland.  Chelsea continued Bournemouth's terrible start with a 5-1 pasting at Stamford Bridge; the Cherries, along with Fulham and Spurs are the three clubs without a win this season.  Hull City stayed in the top half of the table with a hard fought 2-2 draw at home to Everton.

The View From Europe

Hopefully you remembered there was midweek Champions League action since the folks here at BFS forgot to mention that in last week's post.  The editorial staff was sent to bed without dessert.

Jackson and Barkley combined
for 4 goals and an assist vs Fenerbache

A very mixed experience for the EPL sides.  Arsenal took LOSC 3-0 and Liverpool won a 6-3 goal fest over LASK 6-3.  The easiest win was Aston Villa's 6-0 crushing of Fenerbache; they started scoring early and never stopped.  Dennis notes that when you allow Nicolas Jackson and Ross Barkley to each get a brace, you deserve to lose big.  The two Manchurian candidates for the Champions League title did not fare so well.  Man City fell behind PSG early, so much so that a second half brace from Haaland still left them on the short end of a 4-2 final.  Man United found only more questions in Spain, losing 2-0 to Atletico.

In Europa League action, Bournemouth and Sunderland remained unbeaten but Palace fell to Olympic Lyonnais.

Conversation That Sort of Took Place (NFL edition)

This weekend the Eagles were in London to take on the Jaguars at Tottenham Hotspur Satdium.  It did not end well, as the Eagles took the lead with 8 seconds to go but then allowed a long kickoff returned, tackled the guy before the clock ran out and saw the game winning field goal go through with no time left on the clock.  Dennis knew that I was watching Liverpool - Man City in the den while Laura watched the Eagles in the main room.

Dennis: How loud was Laura cursing in the other room?

Steve: I heard some f-bombs

Denns: A friend of mine notes that was super effin' Spursy from the Eagles

Fillebrown Derby

Saturday looks like refereeing the morning, then off to Subaru for the 2:30 start against Charlotte.  I will be on super delay for Saturday, which means I won't see the Fillebrown derby live.  This might be a good thing given that Aston Villa may have found themselves while Newcastle look lost.

I am mostly surprised/stunned at the Opta predictions for Saturday.  Start with Everton favored over Chelsea 43/30/27 in the 7:30 match.  Then we see Brentford - Liverpool at 37/36/27; I guess the Bees do deserve to be favored since they are ahead the Reds in the table and it's a home match for them.  Man City at 71/13/16 over Ipswich makes sense but surprised to see Fulham at 45/28/27 versus Hull City.  Quite surprised to see that in the feature match (of course the Fillebrown derby is the feature match) Newcastle are solid favorites at 41/32/27; color me skeptical.

Sunday has three at 9, each with a reason to watch.  Bournemouth are in the relegation zone and Sunderland are just one point above the line so that's a key match for them.  Brighton - Crystal Palace is a non-derby derby; no one considers it a derby but that fans all act like it is. And who know what to do with Leeds - Man United; it might be an interesting watch just to see if the Red Devils have sorted anything out.  At 11:30 there's Nottingham Forest - Arsenal; that doesn't sound like a match to get Glasner off the hot seat.  The matchweek concludes Monday with Spurs - Coventry City; this does look like a chance for Spurs to make more progress.

There's a full midweek slate of Champions League, Europa League and Conference League fixtures.  The non-EPL-centric fans might go with PSG versus Barcelona on Tuesday at 3 pm: we'll likely go with Liverpool hosting Villareal.  Wednesday looks like Como - Man United at 12:45, then Aston Villa versus Viking at 3.  In truth, the better choice at 3 pm is probably Bayern hosting Arsenal.  Thursday is crowded with both Europa and Conference League action with EPL sides taking on clubs I've never heard of.  Brighton vs Jablonec?Sunderland versus Lech Poznan?  Bournemouth take on Milan and Palace face Besiktas - I have heard of those teams.