We Got Your Championship Sunday Scenarios Right Here

Another week of unexpected, no, improbable, no, miraculous results has set the stage for an exciting Championship Sunday.  By my count, six of the ten fixtures have implications for Champions League, Europa League and relegation.  The bad news of course, is that all the matches are played simultaneously at 11 am on Sunday.  This makes viewing somewhat tricky.  Hopefully, we can help sort out the best viewing for you based on your priorities.  We'll start at the bottom.


Aston Villa No Longer Need Syzygy to Survive

syzygy

[ siz-i-jee ]

noun, plural syz·y·gies.

Astronomy. an alignment of three celestial objects, as the sun, the earth, and either the moon or a planet:

Not to be confused with Szczesny, who used to play keeper for Arsenal.

Trezeguet's goal lifted Aston Villa out of the drop zone

This was as close to a perfect week of results for Aston Villa as you could get. On Friday, West Ham took care of Watford 3-1.  On Sunday, Southampton slipped past Bournemouth 2-0.  Tuesday was a dream come true as first Man City pounded Watford 4-0, erasing the Hornets' goal differential advantage in one fell swoop.  Then, Aston Villa stunned Arsenal 1-0, snatching three points that were never seriously in the mix.  Dennis's reaction is captured here.  The combination of results lifted Villa out of the relegation zone and opened up multiple scenarios that might allow them to stay up; the biggest difference is that there are situations in which they can stay up with a draw or even a loss at West Ham.  

On Sunday, Aston Villa are at West Ham, Watford are at Arsenal and Bournemouth travel to Everton.  All the scenarios are presented below:

Aston Villa	Watford	Bournemouth	Survivor
W	W/D/L	W/D/L	AVL, unless WAT win by at least 2 more goals than AVL
D	D/L	W/D/L	Villa
D	W	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	W	Bournemouth
L	W/D	W/D/L	Watford
L	L	L	AVL, unless AVL lose by at least 2 more goals than WAT

At 538, the associated percentages for staying up are Aston Villa 62%, Watford 34% and Bournemouth 5%.  The weird thing is you can't even say Villa control their destiny because even a win might not be enough if Watford beat Arsenal by two more goals than Villa beat West Ham.  It's also not quite as simple as saying just do better than whatever Watford does because that leaves a chance for Bournemouth to sneak in. So all three matches could matter.

Uh, Here, You Take It

Ol' Gunner says Pogba should have taken it in the "mush"
but it's not clear that's where the ball would have hit him

For the second time this month, all the principals in the chase for Champions League berths dropped points at a critical moment.  Not a complete surprise that Tottenham bested Leicester 3-0, except maybe for the ease with which Spurs dispatched the Foxes.  Chelsea faced long odds playing at Anfield on the day that Liverpool would be celebrating their EPL title so the 3-5 loss wasn't out of the blue, so to speak. A fun match to watch (see below).  But we might have expected more from Man United at home to West Ham.  They fell behind on a late first half PK, which occurred when Paul Pogba was apparently unwilling to sacrifice his face for the cause.  Watching the play here (should open at 5:48), you can understand that hands in front of the face might be a natural reaction.  Still, he is getting no slack from anyone. And further examination of the picture does show the ball was likely going to hit the top of his head, not his face.

When the dust settled, that draw was enough to move Man United to third place based on goal differential.  Leicester are leaking oil badly and Chelsea are sitting pretty because Man United play Leicester on the final day, meaning somebody's dropping points.  Chelsea do have a tough opponent in Wolves but at least will be playing at home.  Here are the Champions League scenarios:

Man United	Chelsea	CL Berths
W	W/D/L	MUN and CHE
D	W/D	MUN and CHE
D	L	MUN and Leicester
L	L	MUN and Leicester
L	W/D	Chelsea and Leicester

At 538, the odds shake out as Chelsea 89%, Man United 76% and Leicester 35%.  Or if you prefer, Chelsea/Man United 65%, Man United/Leicester 11% and Chelsea/Leicester 24%.  Because of the Leicester Man United fixture, each team does in fact control their destiny.  Win and you are in.


Miss Congeniality

Otherwise known as Europa League.  At the moment only 5th and 6th are guaranteed spots; 7th place will only be good enough if Chelsea win the FA Cup.  Fortunately, 6th and 7th can go to only two clubs - Wolves or Spurs.  Wolves have Chelsea at Stamford Bridge so that's not easy.  Tottenham play Crystal Palace away, which is slightly better odds.  But Spurs trail by a point.  Here are the scenarios:

Spurs	Wolves	6th Place
W/D/L	W	Wolves
L	D/L	Wolves
W	D/L	Spurs
D	D	Wolves
D	L	Spurs

Add 'em up and 538 says 53% chance for Wolves, 47% chance for Spurs.  Wolves do control their fate; win and 6th is theirs.


CPFC

Those initials usually stand for Crystal Palace Football Club. We respectfully request they now stand for Christian Pulisic Fan Club.  The American entered the match with Liverpool in the 59th minute with Chelsea down 1-4.  Within 14 minutes the score was 3-4 as Pulisic had contributed an assist and goal, both of the highest quality.  We make it a combo YouTubeableMoment (scroll down for videos of the assist and the goal).  On the assist, check out Pulisic's willingness to go right at the Liverpool defenders; BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S has pointed this out to me as something we haven't seen a lot of from American players.  For the goal, check out his composure as he settles, takes a couple of calm touches and blisters the shot.  Number 22 in your program but a #10 in your heart?


We Watch So You Don't Have To

Newcastle drew 0-0 with Brighton.  Nothing happened.


Wid or Wid Out?

The discussion continues on enhanced or natural sound when watching EPL or other matches.  BFS Culinary Consultant Laura O sends us the following links on the subject:

This one is more about the actual process but does discuss the debate

This one is mostly about the debate

I continue to take the lazy route.  If I have to do something extra to get natural sound, it's not happening.  If it's an easy choice at the start, which only happens while watching on NBC Gold, I'm probably 50/50.


Once A Keeper

Goalie Emeritus Don P (he was the keeper at Dickinson College for their first ever soccer team or so the legend goes - thus far we have only verified the parts of that statement that appear in bold) sends along this podcast about the loneliness and other psychological pressures on keepers as described by Arsenal legend Bob Wilson.  The toughness it breeds may explain why Don was 10-time Defensive Player of the Year in Monday Night Basketball (again, we can verify the bolded part of that statement).


Union Finish Second

A 1-1 draw with Orlando means the Union take second in Group A.  A dvr mishap (probably related to the related to me setting the recording on ESPN while it still thought boxing was scheduled) meant I did not see the match.  Heard there were some good scoring opportunities and some more great work by Andre Blake.  They might not have advanced out of group stage without his heroics.  Their Round of 16 knock out opponent is New England.  That's Saturday night at 10:30 on ESPN2.  Hopefully I can correctly set the dvr this time.


Soccer on Golf Channel

As we noted at the beginning, every match this Sunday starts at 11.  NBC used to call on every affiliated station to ensure live telecasts of every match.  This year they are "cheating" by using Peacock (and NBC Gold) to achieve blanket coverage.  Fortunately, five of the six key contests are on TV so fair play to the schedulers there.

For those following the Champions League drama, you have two to take in:
 - Leicester vs Man United on NBC
 - Chelsea vs Wolves on USA

For the Miss Congeniality Europa League fans you also have two to follow:
- Chelsea vs Wolves on USA
- Crystal Palace vs Spurs on Peacock or NBC Gold

The relegation crowd (which includes me and Dennis) will somehow try to follow three:
- West Ham vs Aston Villa on NBCSN
- Arsenal vs Watford on Golf Channel (not a typo)
- Everton vs Bournemouth on CNBC

In theory, you could try to watch on NBC Gold with the scores turned off and take in each match separately.  My sense though is that it will be impossible for spoiler alerts not to creep in.  Dennis and I have already figured out how we'll jointly watch at least Aston Villa and Watford simultaneously.

If you can only take in one and your rooting interests are neutral, my recommendation would be the Leicester - Man United contest.  But don't underestimate how compelling it can be to watch a team threatened with relegation try to survive.

I'm gonna miss this when it's over.