Keeping Up

Match Day 3 was crammed into four days of six matches each.  You are forgiven if it's largely blur.  I feel that way.  Let's see what I remember.

No Need For the Fainting Couch

Yes, the US lost to Turkiye on a last second goal. The match had no relevance in the standings or future match ups.  The US held out nine first team players.  Here are my takeaways:

- the second string played a good match against a strong side and were seconds from getting a draw

- Pulisic returned from injury and looked dangerous in his second half minutes

- the US may be a little thin on the back line

- I don't see this as a momentum killer

Relax.

Back to The Linc Philadelphia Stadium

Four Yanks in a sea of Croats and Ghanians
From l: Jim, Rob, Mark, Steve

One more trip to South Philly, this time to see Croatia - Ghana.  Since both sides would advance with a 0-0 draw, we were a little concerned about the pace of play in the opening minutes.  A first half goal from Croatia offered some hope of more lively play.  It certainly shook up the Group L standings, moving Croatia to the top ahead of England (who were stuck in a 0-0 draw with Panama) and dropping Ghana to third.  

The second half featured much more action and Ghana leveled the match at 73 minutes, moving them back into second.  Croatia responded 10 minutes later with another go-ahead goal.  Unfortunately for them, England had moved ahead of Panama so this only got them to second.  It ended that way with both advancing to the knockout stage.

Great atmosphere again.  Both teams had huge fan blocs at either end of the stadium but partisan fans were out in force throughout the stadium.  

On the Whole, They'd Rather Be Playing in Philadelphia

Yeah, I know that's not the quote but hopefully Ivory Coast will be singing the praises of the City of Brotherly Love after getting two wins and six points from their matches at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium.  They move on to face Norway in the Round of 32

Plus The Coach Wore Jeans

Cape Verde coach Brito goes dress down Friday
Photo: AP/PTI

Cape Verde is a cool story from the group stage.  Ranked 64th in the world, the Blue Sharks snatched second place in Group H by drawing each of the more highly ranked opponents, including Spain and Uruguay.  This from a nation of just over 500,000 people.  It's like if our Congressional District (PA-3rd covering NW Philly, West Philly and parts of Center City) was a country and we had an international soccer team competing against all the big boys. And their coach, Pedro Leitao Brito, hopefully started a new fashion standard for managers by wearing jeans; takes me back to my CHYSC coaching days.

When Things Are Going Bad

The final match of group stage featured Algeria vs Austria.  Winner would advance, loser would go home; if it was a draw, both sides advanced.  Which meant somebody would get bumped from the last third place spot.  That would be Iran.  So Austria goes up 1-0.  We're in! Algeria levels it.  We're out.  Austria goes ahead again.  We're in! Algeria equalize again.   We're out.  Now neither team looks very interested taking any chances so Iran is most likely done.  Except at 90+3, Algeria stunningly take the lead 3-2 and Iran are back in and with maybe 1-2 minutes to play, surely they are in to stay.  Not so fast.  And please don't call me Shirley.  At 90+6, Austria leveled things again with this goal.  So Austria are in, Iran out.  It's been that kind of year for them.

That'll Leave A Mark

Rules Analyst Mark Clattenburg has been unsparing in his criticism of his former brethren.  He does not hesitate to point out mistakes and what he sees as poor judgment, especially with respect to managing the level of physicality through calling fouls and using cards.  I've already forgotten which referee he was assessing at the time but the quote was "they know the rules but don't understand the game."  Ouch.

Oh No He Dint

We better see this kind of stuff from Wissa when 
he puts back on his Newcastle kit

This is really starting to piss me off.  Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scored two for DR Congo in their dramatic comeback win over Ubekistan.  In three matches, he's tripled his Premier League output for the Magpies.

Who's Out

So sixteen teams are done.

It Was Always A Long Shot - Haiti, New Zealand, Curacao, Jordan, Qatar, Iraq, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan

A "Son-in-law Experience" (as in you were hoping for better) - Czechia, Panama, Scotland, Iran

Heads Will Roll - Uruguay, Turkiye, South Korea

Not All Round of 32 Fixtures Are Alike

In theory the groups were seeded with the proper distribution of good, bad and ugly teams.  I don't know exactly how the first knockout round matches were set but there are some "interesting" fixtures.  If they were truly seeded, you'd see teams with the better rankings facing those with worse rankings.  Sometimes that's the case, but not always;  Here are the matchups with their FIFA rankings:

South Africa (54) - Canada (32)

Brazil (5) - Japan (17)

Germany (12) - Paraguay (37)

Netherlands (7) - Morocco (6)

Ivory Coast (30) - Norway (23)

France (1) - Sweden (36)

Mexico (9) - Ecuador (24)

England (4) - Congo (41)

Belgium (10) - Senegal (18)

US (15) - Bosnia & Herzegovina (61)

Spain (3) - Austria (22)

Portugal (8)- Croatia (13)

Switzerland (16) - Algeria (29)

Australia (28) - Egypt (26)

Argentina (2) - Cape Verde (64)

Colombia (11) - Ghana (65)

One of these is clearly not like the others.  The Netherlands vs Morocco is a match up involving two sides that both could arguably have been quarterfinalists.  Brazil vs Japan and Belgium vs Senegal look pretty tough too.  In the opposite direction, you have South Africa vs Canada, Ivory Coast vs Norway and Australia vs Egypt that ensure some teams with weaker rankings will at least make it to the round of 16. I think the US sort of benefited in this way as well.  Also, it seemed kind of weird that by finishing second in Group J got you Spain but third got you Switzerland.  

These 16 matches play out over the next six days.  Sunday is light with one but then three a day through Friday.  We have a day off coming on July 8 so hang on until then.

Who's In?

Matchday 2 took 8,245,731 scenarios off the table, leaving 4,127,463 possibilities for the third round of group stage matches.  We will review them after discussing the latest results.  Again, swamped with information and things are running together even more than last week.  We will do what we can.

We Will Not Be Outphysicaled (term coined by a Masterman English teacher so it's okay)

After fashioning a nifty 2-0 halftime lead on Australia, the USMNT did not back down in the second half as the taller and bigger Socceroos substantially upped the physicality.  As with Paraguay, the US play in the second half was nothing to write home about but it was good enough to preserve the 2-0 win and claim first place in Group D.  

Alex Freeman heads in the second goal for the US
Photo: AP Photo/Maddy Grassy

An early own goal helped but as we have pointed out in the past, not all own goals are blind luck.  If the Aussie defender had not tried to intercept the cross from Balogun, surely Pepi would have put it in the net.  And stop calling me Shirley.  The second goal was initially ruled offside but VAR intervened to confirm that 1)Freeman was not in an offside position when the initial shot was taken and 2) Balogun, who was in an offside position, did not block Beach's vision or interfere with ability to try to make the save.

Oh, and they won with Pulisic out due to injury.  The win clinched first place in Group D and a date on July 1 with one of the third place finishers.

Conversation That Took Place

Scott F: Lol, I go to the bathroom and not even 30 seconds later they score

Steve: Stay there?

Later

Scott F: Okay, so if it's more than 30 seconds after I get back, it's offside?

Steve: Nope, that's going to count

Scott F: So I'm 2 for 2

Steve: Keep drinking so you have to keep going

Scott F: Yes, people are offering to buy me more drinks

The Wettest World Cup Match Ever

The view from Section C40 Row 18, which was
 much drier than Section C40, Row 15

Or so we are told anyway.  BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W and I ventured to The Linc  Philadelphia Stadium fully aware of the approaching thunderstorms.  Fortunately, the first downpour occurred while we were circling the stadium looking for the entrance to the VIP parking lot that Michael B had scored from a friend.  The next downpour started late in the first half; again we were lucky that our seats were just far enough back that we stayed dry.  The storm continued so the start of the second half was delayed by 90+ minutes.

Great atmosphere again.  I was a bit surprised at the size of the Iraqi crowd, who basically occupied the entire south end of the stadium.  The France supporters, though probably greater in number than the Iraqis, were spread throughout the rest of the stadium so they didn't sound as loud; they were however just as vocal.  The rain and delay in no way dampened the enthusiasm of the crowd and the energy right before the kickoff of the delayed second half was amazing.  

Tickets were on Jack (thanks buddy) so I picked up the food and drink tab.  Despite paying for $25 beers, $20 chicken tenders and high prices for other assorted items, I am still way ahead on that deal.

The match?  Pretty tepid first half that saw Iraq defend well and go in at half time just down 0-1.  Unfortunately an awful mistake at the back (see below) early in the second half put to rest any hope of the result for the underdogs.

Howlers

There have been a bunch.  I can remember two specific fu mess-ups. South Korea surrendered an unfortunate goal to Mexico on a mistake by keeper Kim Seung-gyu, which you can see here.  Since the final was 1-0 Mexico, that was a killer.  In another example, Iraq had been doing a great job frustrating France and were only down 0-1 early in the second half.  Then they had this mistake in the back that gave Mbappe an easy tap in for his second goal of the night.  Like he needs help getting goals, right?  I know there have been others but these were the two that come to mind.

Early Nominee for Best Hair

Tahith Chong makes case for Most Valuable Hair

We've seen some possibilities.  Mackenzie mentioned Yan Diamonde of Ivory Coast.  I saw Ayyoub Bouaddi of Morocco as another choice, though Mackenzie wasn't convinced.  My leading candidate right now is Curacao's Tahith Chong.

Almiron Providing Instructional Videos on Recent Law Changes

Almiron red carded: Didn't your parents teach you not
to cover your mouth when you slur (Photo: ITV)

Recall that against the US, Miguel Almiron became the first player to "benefit" from the revision to the mistaken identity clause in the VAR language that expanded its application to cover players from the non-offending team.  In Friday's match, he became the first player to be red carded for the "don't cover your mouth when you slur" provision.  I'll admit this one caught me by surprise.  I read IFAB's review of the 26-27 law changes and this is not mentioned, nor is it listed in the language for Law 12 (Fouls and Misconduct).  However, there were numerous articles that did mention the rule change.  There was an announcement on the IFAB website; the key language is provided below:

Players covering their mouths in situations of confrontation with opponents

At the discretion of the competition organiser, any player covering their mouth in a confrontational situation with an opponent may be sanctioned with a red card.

 The announcers were aware of it and certainly the Turkiye players knew, as they pointed at Miggie as soon as he did it.  Somehow Paraguay, up 1-0 at the time, managed to keep the score that way despite playing more than half the match a man down.

Oh Miggie, where did your parents go wrong?  Unless Paraguay advance, he will not have a chance to violate any of the other new rules.

Hahahaland and Embop

BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this remake of the Key role call butchering names.

Fun With Geometry

BFS Director of Historic Programs Mackenzie W sends along this story about the geometry and physics behind this year's World Cup ball.  Hmm, weird ball movement might be responsible for some of the howlers we've seen.

Not Funny

Last week it was Newcastle disappointment Yoane Wissa scoring for DR Congo against Portugal.  This week it was Newcastle disappointment Anthony Elanga scoring for Sweden against the Netherlands.  The two combined for a total of one goal in the 25-26 Premier League season and now have two in four WC matches.  

 What We Know

Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina have won their groups.  France, Norway and Colombia are guaranteed to advance.  Turkiye, Haiti, Tunisia, Panama and Jordan are out.

What About Third Place? (Danger: Wonkiness Ahead)

Before looking at the groups, we start with an assessment of what might be enough for third place teams to advance to the knockout stage.  Based on a review of each group's standings, I can only find five groups for which third place is guaranteed to have at least three points.  The flip side of that is that, right now, it's possible two points would be enough to get you to the knock out phase.  It's not as unlikely as you'd think.  Check it out:

Group A - If Mexico beat Czechia and Korea beat South Africa, third place has one point

Group B - If Qatar and Bosnia draw, third place has two points

Group E - If Germany beat Ecuador and Ivory Coast beat Curacao, third place has one point

Group G - If Belgium beat New Zealand and Egypt beat Iran, third place has one point

Group H - If Spain beat Uruguay and Cape Verde beat Saudi Arabia, third place has two points

Group I - If Senegal and Iraq draw, third place has two points

Group K - If Congo and Uzbekistan draw, third place has two points

Individually, none of these sound outrageous to me.  However, at least five of them have to happen for two points to be enough.  So I guess it's still kind of a long shot. 

On the opposite end, does four points guarantee you'll advance?  Looks like no.  I found scenarios in every group but one (I) in which third place could have at least four points.  Check it out:

Group A - Czechia beat Mexico

Group B - Qatar and Bosnia don't draw

Group C - Scotland beat or draw with Brazil

Group D - Australia and Paraguay draw

Group E - Ecuador beat Germany

Group F - Sweden and Japan draw

Group G - Iran beat Egypt and New Zealand -Belgium isn't a draw

Group H - Uruguay beat Spain and Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia isn't a draw

Group J - Austria and Algeria draw

Group K - Congo beat Uzbekistan

Group L - Croatia beat or draw with Panama

Individually, some of these seem like long shots.  Collectively, nine of these would have to happen for for four points not to be enough.  

Teams that play later in the process will have a better idea of what it will take, as some of these scenarios will resolve.

What To Watch

So, what to watch, remembering that the last group stage matches kick off at the same time.  Unless you're going with multiple screens (two computers, computer and phone, two phones, tablet and phone, etc) you can only watch one.

Group A - Mexico have won Group A.  Everybody else has a chance to finish anywhere from second to last.  I'm going to guess that the South Korea vs South Africa (who have to win to have any chance of advancing) match will be more interesting than Mexico vs Czechia (who also have to win to have any chance of advancing).

Group B -The winner of Canada- Switzerland will finish first in the group; a draw means Canada advance while Switzerland finish second.  As noted above, Qatar and Bosnia need a win.  I'm going with Canada vs Switzerland; the latter, sitting on four points, might advance even with a loss.

Group C - Brazil, Morocco and Scotland can finish anywhere from first to third.  Guessing that Morocco - Haiti will be less competitive than Brazil - Scotland.

Group D - US has clinched first and Turkiye fourth so the neutral would go with Australia vs Paraguay.  The Aussies get second with a win or draw.

Group E - Curacao haven't been as helpless as expected but I'd still go with Germany - Ecuador over Curacao - Ivory Coast.

Group F - Netherlands are not guaranteed a spot yet but are expected to handle Tunisia so I'm going with Sweden vs Japan since they're level with three points.

Group G - This one is tougher but I'd go with New Zealand - Belgium over Egypt - Iran

Group H - Uruguay have been disappointing and Spain may have figured some things out so the Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia match may have more drama.

Group I - Though Senegal and Iraq have a lot at stake (each needs to win to have any chance to advance), I'm going with France - Norway; France get first in the group with a win or draw.  Plus it's a chance to see Hahahaland and Embop.

Group J - Austria - Algeria, each with three points, is the choice here over Argentina - Jordan.  Austria have the tie breaker.

Group K - Colombia - Portugal is a cool match up of heavyweights with first place in the group at stake; Portugal need the win to capture first.  DR Congo can get to four points with a win over Uzbekistan but I'd still go with the heavyweights.

Group L - My choice is made here as I will be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium for Croatia - Ghana.   Croatia, a point behind Ghana, will be more interested in a win.  On the other hand, Ghana, with the right result in the England - Panama match, could win the group.  

Yikes that was wonky.  And it's late so this doesn't even have the low level proofing I sometimes do.  There's no editor here right now.  Total chaos in the BFS offices.  Just keep watching.  It's been a pretty good show so far.

Round One

Twenty four matches down.  Frankly, things are starting to run together.  I did see more games than I expected so I have a pile of observations with no rhyme or reason.

Who Are Those Guys? (apologies to Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid)

Was that really the USMNT out there Friday night against Paraguay?  The final was 4-1 but it wasn't really that close.  Watching it, the US dominance was clear.  The stats agree with shots at 17/8, shots on target 6/2. possession 63/37 and expected goals 1.42/.54  (that last one seems light, though maybe because the first goal was an OG).  So often, for me anyway, when the US win it feels like it's because they were better athletes.  This time I thought they were simply better soccer players than the opposition.   We'll make Gio Reyna's stoppage time goal this week's YouTubeableMoment because it demonstrates how the US controlled the match; yes, it was 26 consecutive passes to set up the lovely outside of the foot shot from Reyna.

A Sea of Yellow

Me and Dennis and 65,000 Ecuadorians

Dennis and I were lucky enough to be at The Linc Philadelphia Stadium Sunday night for the Ecuador Ivory Coast match (thanks David C).  Attendance was over 68,000, of which at 65,000 were Ecuadorian, or at the very least, rooting for Ecuador.  It was a sea of yellow.  Great fans before, during and after.  Clearly a disappointed group on the packed subway ride home but nothing like it could have been if it was, say, an Eagles crowd.

Decent match for a low scoring affair, with Ivory Coast getting the lone goal late in the second half.  I had a slight rooting edge for them but would have loved to have seen the pandemonium that would have ensued had Ecuador scored.  A fantastic experience.

IFAB Law Changes

Just in time for the World Cup, IFAB enacted a series of rule changes entitled the Anti-shithousery Initiative.  That's not what it says on the website but trust me, it's what they mean.  Key amendments include:

- referee can start a count of five on throw-ins and goal kicks if he believes they are taking too long; the sanction is throw-in or corner kick to the other team

- players have 10 seconds to get off the field after being substituted

- players who receive assessment or treatment on the field have to go off the pitch for a minute

Some other changes:

- ARs watches buzz for offside based on semi-automated technology

- VAR can intervene for cases of possible mistaken identity in showing cards to players of either team, not just the offending team (that one has already come into play - see Mistaken Identify below)

- an incorrectly awarded corner kick can be overturned by VAR

A little less than thrilled about the asymmetry of the last one.  Kind of like refs not showing a red card for fear of having too much an effect on the result.  Well if mistakenly giving a corner is risky for the defense, not calling one is just a big a deal for the offense.

Never Too Late

Jimenez got a little tearful after scoring versus South Africa
Photo:AP

At 35, Raul Jimenez made his first ever World Cup start in the tournament's opening match between Mexico and South Africa.  He would also get his first ever World Cup goal.  That sounded so strange until you see that, despite his veteran status, he had made just six substitute appearances in the three previous cups.  It was an emotional moment for him, partly reflecting the long comeback from his skull fracture but also the loss of his father a few months ago.

 

Truth in Advertising

It only took two matches to get really tired of the three minute commercial interruption mid-way through each half.  Dennis points out that when the pause is sponsored by Powerade, it's called an Hydration Break but when Lenovo is paying for it, they call it a  Match Break; he notes that at least the latter label "gives up any pretense that they are for the players."

Aside from an being unnecessary interruption, it can affect the flow of the game in favor of one team or the other.  On Sunday, Ecuador had finally found some momentum, getting a few scoring opportunities in quick succession.  Next thing we know, it's time for the commercial break and Ecuador lost the thread.

A Case of Mistaken Identity

Long-time readers of the blog know we are big fans of Miguel Almiron.  That said, we were thrilled to see him get booked for simulation in the match against the US.  You can see the play here.  This was not your average BFS though.  First, the initial call was foul and yellow card on Ream for the "tackle."  The VAR got in referee's ear and suggested he might want to look at the play based on him possibly showing the card to the wrong player.  Looking at the replay, you could see that Ream never touched Almiron, who dove anyway.  So the yellow on Ream was rescinded and transferred, if you will, to Almiron.  So the new rule came into play quickly.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Fortunately Did Not

Dennis:  Did you say that Morocco will have the edge in their match against Brazil?

Steve: No, I said Bono will be in goal for them.

So Much For the Group of Unicorns and Rainbows

Spain and Uruguay were arguably gifted the easiest group but both promptly threw away the advantage with draws against Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia respectively.  Spain outshot Cape Verde 23 to 6 (8 to 1 on shots on goal), had 74% of possession and made 764 passes but failed to score.  Uruguay had a similar experience with shots 27/7, shots on target 10/3 and 65% possession but could only come away with a 1-1 draw.

Close, But No; Qatar

Answers to the questions 1) did Switzerland win and 2) who did they play.  Punctuation matters.

The Most Dangerous Lead In Soccer

Is one goal.  Just ask, Czechia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Switzerland, Morocco, Netherlands, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, New Zealand and Portugal, who failed to hold one goal leads. Only South Korea, Scotland, Ivory Coast and Ghana survived with a one goal lead; note that Ivory Coast got their lead in the 90th minute and Ghana took their lead in the 95th minute so neither of those two spent much time defending those leads.

When You Look Good, You Play Good

BFS Director of Historical Programs sends along this clip about the travelling attire of the DR Congo team.  The team went out and scored their first World Cup goal ever and, with the 1-1 draw to Portugal, got their first World Cup point ever as well.  Coincidence?  We'll never know.  

We were thrilled with the result as readers know we are not CR7 fans here.  However, I must admit to being slightly peeved that Yoane Wissa equaled his season goal tally for Newcastle in a single World Cup game.  

What To Watch

Here's our take on the matches in the second round of group stage matches.  There are a few additions based on the first round results.

June 18 - Mexico vs Korea - though the Group B matches (Canada v Qatar and Switzerland v Bosnia) are more interesting given that everybody drew their opening matches 1-1)

June 19 - Scotland vs Morocco, Turkiye vs Paraguay and US vs Australia (okay, that's three but they are all good)

June 20 - Netherland vs Sweden or maybe Germany vs Ivory Coast

June 21 - New Zealand vs Egypt though every other match that day (Belgium v Iran, Spain v Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay v Cape Verde) are way more interesting given that all those sides drew their first match

June 22 - Norway vs Senegal

June 23 - England vs Ghana ( not a great selection that day either)

I like to lay out the scenarios for the last phase of group play but I fear the permutations will overwhelm my bandwidth.   Still, my plan is to check in with a post on Wednesday morning.

Let the Games Begin

And it's a lot of games -  104 matches to be exact.  There will be 72 group stage matches and 32 knockout contests (yes, they still do the third place game).  The scale is massive.  There are matches every day from June 11th to July 7th.  If I read the schedule right, the only matchless days are 7/8, 7/12, 7/13, 7/16 and 7/17.

Here at BFS, we recognize that there will be plenty of sources to turn to for match results and analysis.  We will be posting regularly throughout the tournament but will be more focused on suggested viewing choices and maybe the less obvious aspects of the competition.  For sure, we will recognize the Most Valuable Hair; feel free to send in your nominations.

The Format

With the expansion to 48 countries, the format is slightly different than recent tournaments.  There are 12 groups of four and in the group stage, you play the other three teams in your group.  First and second in each group automatically move on to the knockout stage.  The top eight third place sides will also advance.  Yes, they will play 72 matches to eliminate 16 teams.  

From there it proceeds as you would expect with 32 in the first knockout round, then 16, then 8, then 4, then 2.  The final is July 19th in New Jersey, though you will hear reference to New York.  I've done work in Secaucus and can assure you it's in New Jersey.

Know Your Tiebreakers

These have always been a part of the tournament but with 12 instead of 8 groups and some third place teams advancing, we suspect they will come into play much more frequently this year.  For determining final placing in a group, the following rules apply:

Step One

- greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned

- superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned

Step Two (if Step One can't resolve ties)

- superior goal difference in all group matches

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

- highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained

Step Three (if there are still ties)

- the two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking

Got it?  Good.

Here's how they will determine the top eight third place finishers:

- greatest number of points obtained in all group matches

- goal difference resulting from all group matches

- greatest number of goals scored in all group matches

- highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained in all group matches

- the two or more teams still equal on points shall be ranked according to the most recent published edition of the FIFA/Coca‑Cola Men’s World Ranking

Everybody clear on this? Given that many disparage the methodology used in the ranking process, we hope that it doesn't come down to that.

Predictions

Are a dime a dozen.  We don't participate.  However, there are two that I will draw to your attention.  First is the familiar Opta website.  We have generally been impressed with their forecasts for the Premier League so we send along this table.  They give Spain the highest probability of winning the whole thing, followed by France, England and Argentina.  On the surface, their projections look pretty rosy for the US - 33% chance of winning the group, 77% chance of getting out of the group stage and a 42% chance of getting to the round of 16.  That last number is driven by a scenario in which the US wins Group D and getting to play a third place finisher from one of the other groups in the first knockout round.  On the glass half empty side, that 77% is the lowest - by a mile - for any of the top seeds in other groups.  And, the spread between first and fourth is the smallest for any group.  I stand by my suggestions in previous posts that this is the most difficult group to get out of.  

The second set of projections comes from Joachim Klement, who has correctly picked the winner of the last three World Cups.  You can see his complete analysis here.  He has the Dutch Holland the Netherlands beating Portugal in the final.  His assessment of the US fortunes is less optimistic than Opta's.  Basically, he sees them finishing third in the group behind Australia (!) and Turkiye.  That gets them Germany in the first knockout round, which does not end well for the USMNT.  The whole thing is a fun read, essentially saying yeah I've been right in the past but if you use these projections to make bets on the tournament, you're a fool.  I'm becoming a big fan, mostly for his echoing my view of Group D and the US chances.  Key paragraph on that subject is below:

Group D is the most evenly matched group of all in this World Cup. In truth, every one of the four teams can come first in the group, and all of them can come last. It will all depend on the form on the day who will succeed, but I think the Australians will summon their cricket spirit and win the group in the same way they win the Ashes – mostly due to the ineptitude of their opponents, and if that isn’t enough, then cheating. 

There are plenty of other prognosticators out there so have fun surfing the net if you want more information.  

What To Watch

For the first two matches of the group stage, there is no overlapping of fixtures so you could in theory watch every one of them.  Professor Ian Malcolm offers his view here on that strategy.  For match three in the group stage, the two matches for each group are played at the same time to minimize possible strategic tanking.  Here's initial thoughts on best viewing choices for the first two sets of matches.

June 11 - Korea vs Czechia

June 12 - US vs Paraguay

June 13 - Australia vs Turkiye and Brazil vs Morocco (it's a Saturday, treat yo self to two)

June 14 - Ivory Coast vs Ecuador and Netherlands vs Japan (see June 13th)

June 15 - Belgium vs Egypt

June 16 - France vs Senegal

June 17 - England vs Croatia

June 18 - Mexico vs Korea

June 19 - Scotland vs Morocco, Turkiye vs Paraguay and US vs Australia (okay, that's three but they are all good)

June 20 - Netherland vs Sweden or maybe Germany vs Ivory Coast

June 21 - New Zealand vs Egypt (least interesting day of the group stage?)

June 22 - Norway vs Senegal

June 23 - England vs Ghana ( not a great selection that day either)

Recommended viewing for the third set of matches is largely driven by the scenarios for advancing so we'll hold off on that for the moment.

Serendipity

Early on I decided I would not scramble for tickets based on the prices or the process or both.  I did say that I would go if tickets "fell into my lap."  Turns out it was a perfect strategy as I now have tickets for Ivory Coast vs Ecuador (thanks David C) and Croatia vs Ghana (thanks Mark B).    And, since I started this post, a third ticket (France v Iraq) fell into my lap too - thanks Jack W.  Awesome strategy indeed.

Who To Root For - Part I

My first preference is for the winner to be someone other than Argentina, Spain, Brazil, France or Germany.  I do have a bias for the US, England and Scotland, largely based on the leagues and players that I follow.  I would like to see Morocco go far but they won't surprise people as easily as they did in 2022.  They are a sound defensive squad but according to Opta have increased their attacking prowess without sacrificing the defensive strength.  Norway is another country with a bunch of Premier League players that I can get behind.  

Who To Root For - Part II

BFS Director of Historical Programs Mackenzie W offers a slightly different approach to choosing your rooting interests.  Her insights are below:

The way I chose who to root for in the World Cup, or any international tournament, is on the basis of “who suffered the worst under colonialism.” This sounds like a flippant ranking of suffering, but it is done on a game-by-game basis to have a nuanced understanding of how global power and history shape any given opportunity. It’s also a way to avoid supporting a popular team simply because they are popular and have a high winning history, which would be like rooting for the Yankees or the Cowboys simply because the franchises are wealthy and can afford to stack their teams. For example, in Group I when France plays Senegal, I would root for Senegal since this is a head-to-head matchup of colonizer versus colonized (plus the African fans really know how to throw a party in the stands). In Group A, Mexico will play South Africa. Both were colonies; however, South Africa more recently subjected its citizens to colonist policies that directly supported the colonizer at the expense of the colonized.

Group C will have Morocco play Haiti, also two former colonies. This is where it gets tricky as we do not want to play the “Oppression Olympics.” Haiti was colonized and enslaved and then after the first ever successful slave revolt in world history, the country was barred from international recognition and trade and forced to repay their colonizers for property loss, depriving the country from developing itself on the same scale as other nations at the time (think generational wealth). Morocco was colonized by the French and also the Arab Empire hundreds of years earlier. The indigenous people of North Africa, the Amazigh (pronounced ah-ma-zir) have been fighting against the monoculture to keep their identities alive for centuries. It’s not up to a white woman from the American Empire to decide who suffered more. At this point, I abandon my system and pick whoever is playing a good game with clean passes, good sportsmanship, and as little masculine posturing as possible. 

Hmm, my US and England choices do not stand up well in this methodology.  Go Morocco.

"Beautiful, Confounding and Corrupt"

Somali referee Omar Artan issued a preemptive red card

Mackenzie also sends along this video from vlogbrother John Green that provides a one sentence (okay very long one sentence) description of each country in the World Cup.  I very much like his three word description of the event itself.  Corrupt may not be the exact word to capture all that sucks about the World Cup but it will do.  The Independent has a long article here about the various issues.  Most recently, we read that Somali referee Omar Artan was "determined to be inadmissible due to vetting concerns and was denied entry" into the US.  Well that's very specific.  I expect there will be stories like this throughout the tournament that will leave me dismayed that I've invested time and money into the event.  

Tying Up Loose Ends

The last two European competitions wrapped up with close but, in truth, less than scintillating finals.  In the Europa Conference League, Crystal Palace took the measure of Rayo Vallecano 1-0 in a match that featured 16 shots and just three on target between the two sides.  The Champions League final wasn't much better.  Arsenal scored early, then basically parked the bus.  The strategy backfired when PSG got a PK at 65 minutes and eventually won the penalty shootout 4-3.  The Gunners managed just five shots and only one on target.  PSG showed more attacking interest, with 19 shots, four on target.  While certainly a disappointing result for Arsenal, the season has to be seen as a major success with a Premier League title and a Champions League final.

A Tale of Two Sackings

Following on the heels of the last post about managerial changes, we had the firing of Bradley Carnell (the Union) and Arne Slot (Liverpool).  Both were coming off successful seasons, with U having won the Supporters Shield and Liverpool the Premier League.  Both were dealing with disappointing results this season.  But that's about all they have in common.  While the Slot firing meets at least some of my criteria for a justified change, the Carnell axing has many of the aspects that drive me nuts.

In one sense, the small sample problem does not apply in either case.  Slot was there for two years and Carnell had about a year and a half.  However, at least Slot got a full second season whereas Carnell was terminated mid-year so it has some of that panicked, knee-jerk reaction overtones.  Another factor here may be related to the suspicion that Slot lived off the work done by his predecessor Jurgen Klopp but could only do so for so long.  Bill James once used the analogy of switching to inferior light bulbs; at first you don't notice the difference but after a while, when they burn out faster than the good ones, the difference becomes clear.

A bigger difference is that in the 2025 summer transfer window, Liverpool added Ekitike, Isak, Frimpong, Kerkez and Wirtz.  Okay, they did lose Nunez, Diaz and Alexander-Arnold but net the team was definitely stronger.  In contrast, the Union saw Baribo, Uhre, Wagner, and Glesnes leave and the replacements (Alladoh, Anello, Ndinga and Sery Larsen) coming nowhere near close to filling the gaps created by those departures.

And lastly, it looks like way more thought went into the Liverpool change.  Certainly there were discussions throughout the season and when they were ready, they brought in Andoni Iraola, who was available after not signing a new contract with Bournemouth.  Iraola, who's work at Bournemouth was solid, will be in place for the off season and ready to go in August.  In contrast, the Union named Ryan Richter (Union II manager) as the interim manager while they conduct a search for a permanent replacement.  So we're looking at uncertainty in this role for some period of time.  

Now, if Liverpool do something nutty like fire Iraola when they struggle in the first half of the 26-27 season, I will be the first to jump on their case.  But to me it looks like one team thought through their change and the other just did what comes easy - that is fire the manager when the team is doing poorly.  

There Goes the Tottenham Vote

Mamdami courting the NYC Gunner fans
Photo: @anySoccerTimes

BFS Artistic Director Laura O alerted us to the curious fashion decision made by NYC mayor Zohran Mamdami.  He showed up for an Eid al-Adha event with an Arsenal-themed kurta.  Either he's a true fan or he's made the political calculation that Arsenal fans outnumber Spurs fans in the Big Apple.

If things go according to plan, I'll do a post after the first round of group stage matches, which end on June 18th.