Missed It By That Much

(Apologies to Maxwell Smart)

Newcastle were five seconds away from defeating Liverpool.  Some EPL sides stumbled badly out of the gate. The first "round" of the season is in the books.  What did we see?

We Played As Our Handicap Would Have Predicted

Arsenal 3-0 over Coventry

Chelsea 3-2 over Fulham

The Gunners got up early on visiting Coventry and were never pressed.  Not that we expected they would be.  Chelsea maybe should have done a little better against the Cottagers but it was an away derby; ex-Villan Morgan Rogers scored in his first league match for the Blues.

Maybe Our Handicap Is Better Than We Think

Ipswich beat Sunderland 2-1 

Leeds 1-0 at Nottingham Forest

Everton 2-0 home to Crystal Palace

None of these are big upsets but maybe better results than expected.  Ipswich got a 90th minute tally (from Jack Clarke seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment) to nip Sunderland, who might be fighting with the Tractor Boys to avoid relegation.  Leeds stole all three away at Nottingham Forest.  I watched Everton - Palace until the Toffees went up 2-0 at 53 minutes; mildly surprised at how easily they dispatched Palace. 

Double Bogeys On the 18th Hole Spoil A Good Round

Bournemouth lose 1-2 at Man City

Newcastle draw Liverpool 2-2 at Saint James' Park

More accurately, Bournemouth bogeyed 17 and 18.  Up 1-0 on City, the Cherries surrendered goals to Guehi at 84 minutes and Gvardiol in the second minute of stoppage time.  They get no points for their valiant effort.

More please: Elanga, who had no goals in league play last
year, scores in the 5th minute vs Liverpool

Newcastle looked solid against Liverpool with a viable attack and a solid defense.  Goals from Elanga and Willock had the Magpies up heading into stoppage time.  Then, on essentially the last play of the match, Lewis Hall fouled Munoz in the box and Sobersly Showboatslee Szoboszlai converted the PK to get Liverpool the draw.  It was the correct call, especially given how tightly Stuart Atwell had called the match to that point.  So Newcastle get a jump on points dropped from winning positions, although they do trail Bournemouth right now.  Another positive from the week is that they did sign Nico Gonzalez from Man City.  I'm starting to feel like a mid-table is possible. 

Can We Have A Mulligan?

Man United dumped 0-2 by Hull City

Spurs rung up 0-3 by Brentford

Aston Villa embarrassed 0-4 by Brighton

Hoo boy, that was some ugly stuff.  Can the season opener be a trap game?  For Man United it was.  They must have been thinking what a great break to get the consensus 20th place finisher Hull to start the campaign.  Hull just played harder, though not necessarily better.  United however did not look as bad as Spurs, who were thoroughly dominated by Brentford; unlike United, the beating on the field was backed up by the match stats.  Spurs did have more possession but trailed in almost every other category. An unimpressive debut for ex-Magpie Sandro Tonali, who appeared to have no impact on the outcome.  

But for stinking the joint up, no one beat Aston Villa.  Certainly facing Brighton in their friendly confines was never going to be an easy task.  This, however, was ridiculous.  An own goal at eight minutes was a bad sign; Villa were down 4-0 by the 31st minute and that was before Joao Gomes was sent off.  They managed no shots on target and an xG of .32.  Since I didn't watch the last 50 minutes, I have no idea how the score remained at 4-0 after the sending off.  

Conversation That Sort of Took Place

Dennis: Tell me the truth, you would have taken a 2-2 draw with Liverpool before kickoff.

Steve: Hell, I would have taken a 2-2 draw when we were up 2-1 in the 57th minute

Dumb, Dumber, Dumbest

There were plenty of fingerprints on the Villa disaster so perhaps it's unfair to single out Joao Gomes.  He started by getting a yellow card for making the yellow card gesture to the referee.  Not long after he made a challenge that probably wasn't reckless but also one that shouldn't be made by someone on a yellow.  He completed the cycle with a ridiculous kickout on Georginio Rutter to earn a straight red card.  He'll be suspended for three matches.  Emery can't be pleased with that performance.

Modern Day Samson

Stat of the week:

Is a barber the EPL's best defense against this guy?

Erling Haaland

League goals with long hair: 112

League goals with short hair: 0

Yeah, yeah, small sample and all that.  BFS Artistic Director Laura O sends along this video suggesting that others see the correlation as well.

Soccer Version of Hidden Ball Trick

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this clip from the Crewe Alexandra - Northampton Town match.  I saw several commentators suggest this was either offside or possibly a yellow card for re-entering the pitch.  Coach Beard has the correct answer here: 

It's not offside because he didn't receive the ball from a teammate.  It's not a card because he was off the field from the natural course of play.  The goal stands.

Well-heeled Attacker?

BFS Retired Military Matters Consultant Greg M sent us this unbelievable goal from Bristol City's Dom Ballard against Birmingham City.  Can the goal of the year happen in August?

Well, We Did Say It Would Be Okay

I suppose we can't complain about the 1-1 draw at Austin on Saturday night since we suggested it would be an okay result given the circumstances.  This was their ninth match in 32 days since the World Cup, it was an away game and the temperature at kick off was 96 (but it was a dry heat). The teams traded goals in the first 21 minutes and after that it looked like a constant struggle against the heat.  This was a solid performance from the back line of Wagner, Harriel, Pierre and Westfield.  When Garry Maddox patrolled the outfield for the Phillies in the 70s, they used to say that two-third of the world is covered by water, the other third by Garry Maddox.  I'm starting to feel that way about Neil Pierre.  Yes, only a few matches into his MLS career but so far so good.

Too Soon To Carabao It

We will simply note that Newcastle knocked off West Brom 3-2 to advance to the next round.

Let's Try This Again

Friday's 3 pm fixture between Crystal Palace and Man City offers hope of a nap.  And the early 7:30 Saturday contest with Liverpool hosting Nottingham Forest might get the DVR treatment - get up after 8 and use the FF button to be done in time for the 10 am fixtures.

Only two at 10 but one is a classic relegation confrontation, with Hull traveling to Coventry City; I would have had this down as a close one but Opta says 51/24/25 favor Coventry.  Also surprised that Bournemouth are 48/27/25 over visiting Everton in the other 10 contest; I would have thought that would be closer.  

The 12:30 feature match (actually on NBC this time) is maybe the most interesting of the week, with Newcastle travelling to London to face Spurs.  Both sides can be puzzling.  The Magpies may not be as bad as we feared while Spurs, ignoring last week's debacle at Brentford, really should be a vastly improved team from last year.  Opta sees it at 43/33/24 for Spurs and that seems right on target to me, especially with Spurs as hosts.

The packed time slot is Sunday at 9 am, all potentially interesting.  I'm curious how Brighton will do at Stamford Bridge, with some hope they'll be competitive.  Sunderland vs Fulham is a match-up of two sides that will be looking to stay out of the relegation fight.  And Opta has Leeds - Brentford as the tightest match of the week at 38/36/26 favor Leeds.  I have a soft spot for the Seagulls so I'll probably go with Chelsea - Brighton.  Sunday's other match at 11:30 would have been considered a trap game for Man United except for the fact that they lost last week and will probably not be caught off guard hosting Ipswich.

Monday's 3 pm match is scary, as Aston Villa will host Arsenal.  We're certainly hoping for better from the Villans but they are still a team in transition.  The pieces may all eventually fit together but maybe not right away. 

The Champions League league phase draw was held Thursday.  You can see the results here.  Europa League and Europa Conference League have their draws Friday.  Lots of EPL sides to follow but sadly, Newcastle are not one of them.  Or is that a good thing?

Union travel to Harrison to face Red Bulls Saturday at 7:30.  Last week's draw left them three points out of playoff spot.  They are just five behind the 8th place Red Bulls so this is a big six pointer.  Opta does not like our chances (44/29/27); we have some momentum and this is a team we've had some recent success against so maybe it will work out.  

Unfinished Business

I forgot to match the gaffer with his team last week.

I have to work on the pronunciation of Newcastle's new manager (YICE-sluh) before I can start remembering the other guys' names.

Here We Go

 

As in "With Eddie Howe gone and the midfield decimated, Steve approached Newcastle's coming EPL season with much trepidation."

Last Minute Transfers

Gonzalez would be a big help in midfield
Photo: Kieran McManus/Shutterstock

Newcastle continue to try to fill holes where they can.  Amar Dedic looks like good value at right back.  He has basically the same skill set as Livramento and is not overpriced at $40m.  There was talk about  bringing in Carlos Baleba or Joao Palhinha to shore up the midfield but those rumors have faded away.  Given that neither was anything close to a replacement for Tonali or Guimaraes and Baleba's price tag was ridiculous and he's currently injured, I view this as a good thing.  Now I'm reading about the possibility of signing Nico Gonzalez from Man City.  I didn't see a $ attached to the potential deal but signing him might reduce some of my trepidation.

Live Table

Apparently the last tie breaker is alphabetical...

Projections

Once again I've loaded a pile of pundit projections into a spreadsheet to see what the collective thinking is for the season.  Here's the table:

I couldn't find projections from last year's winner Ninad Barbadikar but recall that "Average" was the second most accurate.  The Athletic was third.  Two years ago, Average finished third behind Opta and Pinnacle.

Incredible to me that almost every projection has Arsenal first.  Not that it's a terrible pick, just that nobody disagrees.  Man City is clearly a consensus number two.  Third through fifth are tight between Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United.  Aston Villa and Spurs are the picks for the consolation European competition spots.  

The pundits don't see much hope for the newly promoted sides.  Hull are picked by all but one to finish last. Ipswich get 18 or 19 in every pick but one.  Coventry get a little love but most still see them heading down as well.  Sunderland and Fulham look like the only challengers for relegation.

Biggest divergence across the projections is for Nottingham Forest (6th! to 18th).  Newcastle are second biggest with a range of 6th to 17th.  The average puts the Magpies in 9th but this is kind of like head in the oven and feet in the freezer - some see a decent upper mid-table finish but others see a potential relegation battle.  Right now the relegation battle looks more likely.  Others with big spreads include Brentford (7th to 17th), Bournemouth (6th to 16th) and Sunderland (10th to 20th).  

Union Exception To Two Goal Lead Rule?

Regular readers know that I put no stock in the view that a two goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer.  However, recent performances by the Union are making me consider an exception.  On Sunday, they came back from two goals down for the second game in a row for a 3-2 win.  

They had fallen behind NYCFC on two first half PKs.  The first was clear cut but I haven't seen a replay that convinces me that Vasilev was guilty of handling in the box for the second one.  No matter.  Danley JJ got the comeback started with putback goal at 48.  Then Damiani accepted passes on a silver platters from each of the Sullivan brothers for goals at 69 and 75 minutes to put the Union up 3-2.  You can see the two plays in this week's YouTubeableMoment (should open to about 68:10).  Damiani had to be precise but it was really about the quality of the passes from Cavan and Quinn.  Good on the brothers for not taking the shot but making the extra pass for the easier goal.  Jamie Tartt's father would be livid.  

He Ain't Messi, He's My Brother (apologies to The Hollies)

The Union's unbeaten MLS streak continued with a wild and raucous (and highly entertaining) 2-2 draw with Inter Miami on Wednesday night at a Subaru Park packed with far too many people in Messi jerseys.  The U got an early lead thanks to a Vasilev goal off a great cross from Westfield, who had been sprung by an insightful pass from Cavan Sullivan.  Miami countered with two of their own, arguably against the run of play; Messi keyed one of them with a great cross in the box, then got one of his own with a curler that Blake had no chance on.  To their credit, the Union did not wilt, got an equalizer in the second half from Pierre and actually had the better of play in the second half.  Missed chances however meant the final was 2-2.  The stats show the Union's dominance with shots 18/6, shots on target 8/3 and expected goals 3.5/1.6.  That last number highlights why we might be disappointed with the draw.

Cavan:Get your hands off my brother

For my money, Inter Miami was channeling their inner Argentina all night, going down much too easily on contact and feigning injury; I still think it should be a yellow if you grab a body part in pain that was never touched in the contact.  Referee Filip Dujic was far too willing to award free kicks (for both sides) for minimal contact.  Things finally boiled over late in stoppage time when Quinn Sullivan and Ian Fray (his name says altercation!) got tangled up in the box. The real fight ended up being between Yannick Bright and Cavan Sullivan, who quickly moved to stick up for his older brother.  Both got red cards and at that point, Dujic realized his best option was to blow the whistle for full-time.

So we have to say the Union passed this test, coming away with four points against NYCFC and Miami.  They are still 13th but are now just four points out of a playoff spot.   

Still A Travesty...

With new stadium under construction, days of soccer
at Yankee Stadium are mercifully numbered

...to see soccer played in Yankee Stadium.  It's too small, they have to put down sod on the infield and the fans on the near side are 100 miles from the pitch.  Dennis and I debated who hates the situation more - the Yankees or NYCFC.  We concluded that the answer is probably the people who have to convert the field between the two configurations.

What He Meant

Dennis provides the following translations of things actually said by TV commentators this weekend.

Announcer: The team chose to use their depth in mid-week Leagues Cup action

Dennis's translation: The team did not give a shit about the Leagues Cup and played the entire second team

Announcer: She's lucky to be on a team without a prolific scorer

Dennis's translation: On any other team, she would not get any playing time

The Weekend

First week fixtures are mostly a lot of top half contenders versus the bottom half.  We start with Arsenal hosting Coventry on Friday at 3 pm.  The Gunners are 80% favorites to win that one but hey, we'll watch anything on a Friday afternoon.  Not sure I feel the same way about getting up at 7:30 Saturday for Hull vs Man United.  The 10 am slot may have the more competitive fixtures of the weekend - Ipswich v Sunderland, Everton v Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest v Leeds.  The NBC feature match at 12:30 is a London Derby with Brentford hosting Spurs.  Totally surprised that Opta has Brentford favored at 41/34/25.  [Ed note: I'll be using that format to present Opta projections; the first number is percent likelihood the favorite wins, the second is the percent chance for the underdog and the third number is the chance of a draw.]  

Back at it early Sunday with Man City home to Bournemouth and Aston Villa heading to Brighton. Both are at 9 am but we'll go with the Villa game, for which they are surprisingly the underdogs (44/31/25).  The late Sunday fixture is Newcastle's home opener against Liverpool at 11:30.  I may be on delay for that as someone got me Phillies tickets.  Maybe for the best as the Magpies are significant underdogs (50/26/24).

Matchweek 1 concludes with another London Derby, this one pitting Fulham against Chelsea.

It's a quiet week for the Union, as they just have one match, away to Austin on Saturday at 8:30.  The hosts do have a worse record than the Union who are slight favorites (44/31/25) but this is an away match at the end of a congested stretch.  Hoping for the W but would take the D.

Let's do this!

In Case You Missed It

The Union got better.  Eddie Howe "left" Newcastle.  Infantino tried to sell the World Cup. 

Not A New Manager Bounce

Since the World Cup, the Union have three league wins (plus a win and and two losses in Leagues Cup).  The most fun of these was the comeback down 0-2 to Atlanta which featured two goals in stoppage time for the win.  The comeback is chronicled here (video should start at about 72 minutes).  They did lose on Thursday to bow out of the Leagues Cup but I can't see that as a problem; it was a heavily rotated lineup and they don't need the extra matches.

I'm seeing comments about the new manager bounce under Ryan Richter and that Carnell always does worse in his second year with a team.  Not buying either.  Four important pieces to last season's success were not available to Carnell this year - Baribo (leading scorer), Wagner (leading assist provider and part of solid back line), Quinn Sullivan (key to attacking from wing) and Glesnes (center back in solid back four). Without replacements for these changes, what did we expect?

I have no idea about Ryan Richter as a manager; maybe he'll be great.  But he is fortunate to start his tenure with three of those problems addressed.  Wagner was reacquired and has been dishing the assists (3 in 3 MLS matches).  Quinn Sullivan is back from injury and is creating havoc down the right wing.  And Neil Pierre has been a revelation at center back, not just a replacement for Glesnes but an upgrade; besides a being a solid presence in the middle of the back line, he's added two header goals as well.

All of sudden, the playoffs don't look unreachable.  At the very least, the team is entertaining to watch (last night's game excluded).  

Look What They've Done To My Team, Ma (apologies to Melanie)

The exodus of biblical proportions continues Tyneside. The manager's gone (see below).  Gordon, Tonali, Guimaraes, Trippier, Krafth and Ramsdale are gone.  Lewis Hall may be gone soon.  Livramento will likely miss opening day with an injury, as might Lewis Miley.  Pope is likely to be demoted to back up keeper.  Transfers in include Lukas Hornicek, Sean Steur, Aladji Bamba, and Bazoumana Toure. You are forgiven if you don't recognize those names.  They are young, possibly really good players but unproven at this point.  

The starting lineup for the season opener next week versus Liverpool could look like : Hornicek (G), Burn (LB), Botman (CB), Thiaw (CB), Hall (RB), Joelinton (MC), J Murphy (MC), Bamba (MC), Barnes (LW), Elanga (RW), and Osula (ST).  That might actually represent an improved defense as Hornicek could be an upgrade over Pope.  The front line is one that we saw more than occasionally last year but was inconsistent.  The midfield frankly is just plain scary without Tonali and Guimaraes.  

I've seen a few pundits peg Newcastle for 7th but that seems highly optimistic to me.  Top 10 would be amazing from where we stand right now.

Newcastle's Season in Two Pictures

Speaking of replacements, a common thread for last year's disappointing season for the Magpies was that many of the off season acquisitions just didn't get the job done.  Was this because they were bad choices or did they have a bad year?  Courtesy of DataMB, the charts below suggest it was the latter.

This one compares Elanga 24/25 to Elanga 25/26; the blue indicates that he was a shell of his former self at Newcastle last year.  Here's Woltemade's:

Pretty much the same story for Nick.  I tried to compare Wissa but he's not even in the 25/26 data base because he played so little.  These charts do offer some hope of a bounce back season as opposed to these players simply not being good enough.  Of course, another possibility is that prior performance in another league doesn't translate into success in the EPL.

No Howe

Newcastle and Eddie Howe finally parted company last week.  The official story line is that the decision was mutual.  Probably was, at least in the sense that Howe was likely just tired of feeling unwanted.  I for one will miss him as he guided Newcastle through its most successful and entertaining period since I've been a fan.  

I think there's some chance we'll see him in charge of the England squad come the next European Championships.

Know Your EPL Gaffer

Speaking of managerial turnover, the EPL roster has many new names on it. How many managers can you match with their club?

Answers next week.  This story provides some perspective on the number of changes.  No fair reading it before you take the test.

I'll Take That Bet

Dennis and his friend Jeremy have had a standing bet on who will finish higher - Aston Villa or Wolves.  Dennis has been doing pretty well recently.  I predict that trend will continue.

Equal Opportunity Supplier

Apparently Newcastle did not want to put its thumb on the scale when it comes to the North London Derby.  Having providing Spurs with a top quality midfielder in Sandro Tonali earlier this summer, they evened things up by sending Bruno Guimaraes to Arsenal.  I'll miss them both but probably Tonali more - he's just steadier where Guimaraes can be highly flammable (inflammable?) at times.

Not For Sale

Infantino: What was I thinking?
Alexander Hassenstein /Getty Images

You likely read/heard about Infantino's plan to sell shares of the World Cup. As detailed here, thanks to opposition from UEFA, CONCACAF and the Asia federation, that proposal had a shelf life of about three days.  Beyond just being rejected, the way the plan advanced has set in motion a chain of events  that could threaten Infantino's position at FIFA (story here).  And information surfaced that during his UEFA tenure a high level executive got a six figure payout upon leaving the organization; as related here, there are allegations that the executive was Infantino's mistress.  The payout has been confirmed but Infantino denies the allegations.

Many were pleased, including me, with the swift torpedoing of Infantino's plan.  But I caution that we not read into this some sort of grass roots effort to take back the game.  This was basically the second most powerful organization in football (UEFA) telling FIFA to knock it off.  

Girls Got Moves

BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W sends along this clip of a UVA attacker beating four defenders before slotting the ball in the upper left corner.  

Union Activity

The U have two league matches this week - away to NYCFC on Sunday and home to Inter Miami on Wednesday.  My calendar says I have a ticket for the Miami game.  NY are 5th in the table and Miami 2nd so these will be good tests of how much the team has improved.