Next Stop, the Twilight Zone

A strange few days on and off the pitch. Fasten your seat belts as the EPL enters stoppage time...in the Twilight zone.

Guardiola reacts to the Court of Arbitration for Sport
decision (dramatization)

Perhaps the biggest EPL result of the week came out of Lausanne, which if you check the maps is not in England but Switzerland. This is the headquarters for the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which decided that UEFA's two-year Champions League ban of Man City was not justified by the evidence.  The Court did conclude that City's cooperation was less than ideal and fined them £10 million for that.  Chicken feed compared to a CL ban. The decision unsettles the tranquility that had been developing in the chase for those CL slots.  Where once Chelsea, Man United and Leicester had looked like locks, Man City's reentrance means that only two of those three can make it.

And all three made hash of their weekend, just as this blogger predicted.  Right.  I believe the exact words were:

Chelsea (at Sheffield Saturday 12:30 NBC), Leicester (at Bournemouth Sunday 2 pm NBCSN) and Man United (hosting Southampton Monday 3 pm) are good bets to take all three points in their matches. 

Even the blind squirrel can be nutty sometimes.

Chelsea started things off Saturday with an 0-3 loss to Sheffield.  Not totally out of left field but based on recent form, a highly unlikely result.  Even down 0-2 you had some sense the Blues might pull out at least a draw until McGoldrick's second at 77 minutes put that idea to rest.

On Sunday things got really goofy.  Bournemouth, who hadn't won a match since February 1, dutifully fell behind Leicester on a Jamie Vardy goal and though the Foxes didn't look spectacular, you felt there was no way back into the match for the Cherries.  In the 66th minute, Wilfred Ndidi (Who did?  Indeed he did.) tripped Callum Wilson in the box and Stanislaus converted the PK.  Barely a minute later, Solanke slipped a second one past Schmeichel for the lead.  That carried additional consequences as Leicester's Caglar Soyuncu kicked at Callum Wilson inside the net as he was retrieving the ball, earning a straight red for serious foul play (and for being stupid according to BFS Referee Consultant Graham Robb).  Down a man, Leicester surrendered two more, meaning they dropped three points and hurt their goal differential by three.  Nice work.

The trifecta was completed on Monday as Southampton refused to go quietly into the night against Man United.  In fact, they took the early lead.  Goals by Rashford and Martial quickly restored the natural order of things but the Red Devils failed to put Southampton away.  I texted Jeff H late in the match "better not get complacent here" but to no avail.  Substitute Michael Obafemi took delivery on a corner in the 96th minute (stoppage time added to stoppage time) to snatch a draw. Sorry Jeff, we're making it the YouTubeableMoment.

Sixth through eighth did manage to get three points each but even with the stumbles at the top, they are looking at long odds.  Wolves found their mojo in a 3-0 win over Everton, who look like they are playing in flip flops.  Sheffield got their three against Chelsea and Tottenham won a highly entertaining North London derby 2-1 on a late header by Aldervirile Eldervereld Altervidal Toby.  Lacazette had given the Gunners an early lead but Son took it right back within three minutes.  Great up-and-down action for the neutrals.

The revised odds for Champions League berths at 538 now have Chelsea at 76%, Man United at 70%, Leicester at 49% and Wolves at 4%.  I like Man United's odds a little better given that they play Crystal Palace, West Ham and Leicester while Chelsea still have Liverpool and Wolves, in addition to Norwich.  Leicester have a tough run-in with Sheffield United, Tottenham and Man United.  Well, we can thank the CAS for adding some spice to these last two weeks.


Two Wrongs Don't Make a Right

But in this case they probably evened out.  For reasons not clear to most viewers, VAR Jonathan Moss overturned two of Martin Atkinson's calls in Aston Villa's 2-0 life-saving win over Crystal Palace.  Early on, Moss ruled that Mamadou Sakho had handled the ball into the net.  Check out the play here; actually it looks to me like it comes off his back.  Early in the second half, Atkinson awarded Villa a PK for a foul on Jack Grealish.  You can see the incident here.  Looks pretty clear that van Aanholt landed on Grealish's foot, which is a foul.  Grealish's reaction is of course silly but should be irrelevant to the call.  Moss overturned that one too.  In both instances, Moss violated the BFS 30-second VAR Rule; if it takes more than 30 seconds to decide if the call was incorrect, by definition it is not a clear and obvious error.  Why the EPL doesn't require the referee to go to the monitor himself to see if he saw what he thought he saw is beyond me.  Luckily this time, the consequences evened out.

Deeney after the first of two PKs
(Image: Marc Aspland NMCPool)

The victory gives Villa just enough hope of staying up.  It was absolutely necessary after Norwich (0-4 loss to West Ham) and Newcastle (1-2 loss to Watford) failed to offer any help on Saturday.  The Magpie loss was particularly galling on a number of fronts.  After a decent first half in which they looked interested, Newcastle folded up shop in the second half.  Both Hornet goals were PKs after untidy challenges by Ritchie and Manquillo.  The loss was fully deserved.

Norwich is done but the next four sides all got three points over the weekend.  You'd say it was status quo, except that with so few matches left, the failure of West Ham and Watford to drop points is a problem.  Aston Villa need at least five points from the final three matches versus Everton, Arsenal and West Ham.  If Friday's West Ham-Watford fixture ends in a draw, they'll need six. 


Two Things I'll Bet You Didn't Know About Financial Fair Play Regulations

Basically, FFP requires you to keep salaries below a specified cap or face a transfer embargo.  You probably knew that.  But did you know that the salaries of players under 21 years old do not count against the cap?  Thanks to Football Manager, I was fully aware of that exception and have taken advantage of it often to keep Forest Green under the cap.  However, I assumed that the exemption applied for the entire season.  Wrong.  When the player turns 21 [I mean 22], his salary immediately goes against the cap.  I recently discovered this when we suddenly went from being okay to facing an embargo even though I hadn't made a personnel move.  Comparing earlier points in time, I could see the only difference was the player who turned 21 [22] was no longer exempt.  FM is great way to learn the inner workings of an EPL club.


The Schedule Revisited

With the shake up caused by recent events, let's review the mid-week fixtures.  Chelsea (vs Norwich on Tuesday) and Man United (Crystal Palace on Thursday) look good for three points.  Except I said the same thing on Friday.  Though 538 thinks Leicester should be fine against Sheffield United on Thursday, that looks like a tough match to me.

As for the chase pack, Wolves have to go to Turf Moor to face Burnley.  A good home team vs a good road team; doesn't seem like an easy one for Wolves.  Spurs have Newcastle at St. James' Park on Wednesday; I might have seen Newcastle nicking a point here but after the way they mailed in the second half at Watford, that seems unlikely.  And Sheffield face Leicester so they have their work cut out for them.

The relegation match of the week is West Ham vs Watford on Friday.  A winner there is going to be safe.  Even a draw will make it difficult for Aston Villa and Bournemouth.  Villa get Everton at Goodison Park which normally sounds bad but the Toffees have been spotty lately.  Bournemouth get Man City at home; good luck with that.

A heads up for Wednesday.  All four matches will be available only on NBC's new streaming service - Peacock. Some details are available here.  I think I'm getting old.  This just seems annoying.  Why do I need another streaming service to watch soccer?  And get off my lawn.