Normalcy?

Some semblance of order was restored in Week 36.

The three main contenders for the two open Champions League spots took care of business, though not necessarily convincingly.  Chelsea dominated but still barely slipped past Norwich 1-0 on a sublime cross from Pulisic to Giroud.  Because we shamelessly promote the best American footballer right now, the play is this week's
 YouTubeableMoment.  Leicester looked better than in recent weeks and took the measure of Sheffield United 2-0.

Wear a smaller shoe next time

And Man United eventually finished off Crystal Palace 2-0 but not before some second half dramatics.  Rashford gave the Red Devils a 1-0 with a first half stoppage time goal but Jordan Ayew had appeared to level things early in the second half before it was overturned by VAR for offside.  I'm not saying it was a close call or anything but if Ayew had been wearing a size 8 boot instead of size 9, I think he's onside.  So no change in the order of things, except Chelsea lose one on goal differential; they're so far behind Leicester and Man United on that score I doubt it matters.  Plus they have one point in the table on both of those teams so they still control their destiny.  These results also closed the door on Champions League hopes for anybody else.


Mid-table Anonymity

Forget which announcer used that phrase but it's definitely a factor in these matches during the run-in.  Just how motivated are sides that are safe from relegation but with no chance of Champions League or Europa League?  Actually, they mostly acquitted themselves well.  Newcastle lost to Tottenham 1-3 but at least this was a 90-minute effort from the Magpies.  Mixed feelings for Spurs as despite the three points, results elsewhere mean they can finish no higher than 6th, as in no Champions League for you.

Burnley - Wolves proved to be just as hard-fought as expected.  Jiminez had appeared to give the Wolves a lifeline with an incredible strike in the 76th minute.  But shortly after Chris Wood missed an easy chance to level, Doherty was called for handling in the box (marginal call IMHO) and Wood converted the PK to sink Wolves CL hopes. 

Slumped shoulders from Grealish say it all after Walcott
levelled the match late

Everton putzed around for most of their match with Aston Villa, but then so did Aston Villa.  Neither team registered a shot on goal through 72 minutes.  Then Villa's Ngoyo barely got his extended leg on a cross into the box to put them up 1-0.  Unfortunately, this was enough to rouse Everton from their deck chairs and they looked mildly interested from then on.  Theo Walcott managed a looping header over Reina that barely made it across the line in the 87th minute to deny Aston Villa all three points.  The draw leaves some hope but three points would have made the road a little easier.

Arsenal, despite being outstatted by Liverpool, managed to keep their Europa League chances alive with an improbable 2-1 win over the champions-elect.  By outstatted I mean 24-3 on shots, 8-2 for shots on target, 69-31 on possession and 3-1 on expected goals.  The loss means Liverpool will not break 100 points for the season.


Scenarios

At the bottom, Aston Villa survival scenarios are getting convoluted.  There is a way they could stay up with just a win over West Ham on the final day of the season.  For that to happen, Watford must 1) lose all three remaining matches (West Ham, Man City, and Arsenal) and 2) must lose by at least a combined -5 goals while 3) Villa must beat West Ham by more than they lose to Arsenal.  Two of those things are not out of the question.  Stealing a point from Arsenal would take the goal differential issues out, simplifying the table to 1) Watford lose all three and 2) Aston Villa beat West Ham.  Oh, and Bournemouth can't be mucking things up by getting points against Southampton and Everton (see Mid-table Anonymity above).

At the top, Chelsea are in with two wins, except they play Liverpool and Wolves.  On balance, that sounds like a loss and win or maybe a draw and a win for 66 or 67 points.  Man United play West Ham and Leicester; two wins or maybe a win and a draw for 68 or 66 points.  Leicester play Spurs then Man United; a draw and a loss or maybe two draws for  63 or 64 points.  Right now, Leicester look like odd man out.

Based on what I'm reading, the Champions League will not reach down to 5th place should a top four finisher win this year's Champions League or Europa League.  That is, should Man City or Chelsea, win this year's CL, it doesn't help anybody who finished 5th or lower.  Chelsea are pretty much toast anyway, down 0-3 to Bayern heading to Germany for the second leg of that Round of 16 match up.  City are up 2-1 coming home to the Etihad against Real Madrid so they might make it.  In Europa League action, both Man United and Wolves have legitimate hopes of reaching the quarters or beyond.  But if Man United were to finish say, 4th in EPL, and win the Europa League, as I read the rules, that does not mean 5th place now gets a Champions League spot.  Clear as mud right?

Europa League rules say 5th place, the EFL Cup winner and the FA Cup winner get slots for EPL teams.  Unlike Champions League, they do reach down to lower positions in the table if either Cup winner is in the top five.  Man City have already won the EFL Cup, so 6th place will be good enough this year.  Should a team other than Arsenal win the FA Cup, that would open up 7th place.  But that's the extent of how far down they'll reach.  Say Man United win this year's Europa League and qualify for next year's Champions League; they won't reach down to 8th place for another Europa League team.  The only way you can finish lower than 7th and get a Europa League berth is to win the EFL or FA Cups. 

There'll be a test on this next week.


Union Advance

Not that I was able to watch it, not having access to TUHD.  I only saw the highlights of the 2-1 win over Miami, a victory that moves them on to the knockout rounds in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  The stats say the Union may have stolen this one.  Shots differential wasn't too bad but possession was 55-45 and expected goals was 1.3-.6.  Also, VAR overturned a handling call against the Union and there was a shot that rattled off the cross bar.

On the other hand, there was a great strike from Wagner for the first goal and a wonderful piece of counterattacking for the second from Cats-purr shuh-BILL-koh.  Watch that goal here.  Can I draw your attention to the wonderful work of Monteiro, who didn't touch the ball at all in this sequence but was a critical factor in its creation. 


FA Cup Weekend

With the FA Cup semis this weekend, match Week 37 is spread out from Saturday to Wednesday.  There are several that you may want to skip.  I would not however pass on Spurs - Leicester Sunday at 11 am on NBCSN.  Earlier, 538 had this as much closer but now they see the Foxes as favorites; I'm still thinking draw here.  At Relegation Central, we'll probably check in on Bournemouth - Southampton at 9 am Sunday just to make sure the Cherries don't get more than a point.

Wolves - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3:15 could be a fun watch.  Relegation Central will be focused in on Tuesday to watch Man City hopefully ruin Watford's goal differential at 1 pm and then hopefully see Aston Villa nick a point from Arsenal at 3:15. 

Wednesday has two important matches with Champions League implications.  Man United host West Ham at 1 and Chelsea are at Liverpool at 3:15.  At 538 they see easy win for Man United but Chelsea are the decided underdogs in their contest.

With respect to the FA Cup, you are SOL (short on luck) for viewing unless you have ESPN+.  Saturday is Arsenal - Man City at 2:45 and Sunday has Man United - Chelsea at 1 pm.  Both matches are at Wembley. 

And if you're not doing anything at 8 pm on Monday, you can see the Union - Orlando play to see who wins Group A in the MLS Is Back Tournament.  If you care.  This one is on TSN so at least I can see it.   Actually, Dennis has seen a few of the other matches and says the quality has been pretty good, if sweaty. 

And by next Sunday, the EPL will be done.  Fortunately, we will have some Champions League stuff to make August bearable.