Vacation Viewing

As expected, I only saw a few games, watching on my phone or computer after everyone else had gone to bed.  Another Saturday on which both Newcastle and the Union get a win.  

Things Undone

Arsenal are no longer perfect.  We had expected (hoped) Brighton would play the Gunners tough but did not foresee the 3-0 thrashing they gave last year's champions.  The highlights and the stats lead me to believe that Brighton did not steal this one but simply outplayed Arsenal.  Shots were 14/6 and shots on target were 6/1; only xG makes it seem close at 1.73/1.32.  Man City, which played sloppy but entertaining football in a 5-3 win over Sunderland are the only perfect side left.

Hull City are no longer unbeaten. Newcastle jumped on the Tigers quickly and had a 2-0 lead by the 7th minute.  We make Lewis Hall's goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Should have been 3-0 at halftime but Wissa's PK was saved.  The second half was an exercise in hanging on, especially after Cho made it 2-1 at 67 minutes.  Overall, I think we have to count the Mapgies lucky to get all three here.

And, looking at this table from Opta, we should count Newcastle as lucky to be sitting ninth.  

There are some other big spreads in there but Newcastle are by far the largest.  Probably should remember that we're only five matches in so we're dealing with the problem of small numbers.

Going back over expected goals numbers for the five matches so far, I could argue that the Magpies would be expected to have zero or, at most, one point.  Most of the difference is they've scored more than expected, not allowed more than expected.  We can hope that it's better quality finishing but will worry that we've just been lucky.

Aston Villa are no longer winless.  Spurs pretty much pushed Aston Villa around the whole first half so of course Villa took the halftime lead with a stoppage time goal from Manzambi.  They added second half goals from Jackson and Buendia and were cruising to victory.  To make things interesting though, they allowed goals at 86 and 90+8 to create the impression that this was a close match.  It really wasn't.

Coventry saved by Jesus transgression

Coventry are no longer goalless, pointless or winless.  They only needed one goal to dispatch Nottingham Forest.  A late equalizer by Jesus was ruled out for a foul he committed gaining possession of the ball; some felt it was light but there was contact on the foot.  Oliver Glasner is probably on the hot seat with Forest now in 13th, given Marinakis's track record in sacking managers.

Spurs are no longer goalless but do remain winless as noted above.

I would be remiss if I didn't note that Brentford did indeed keep Friday afternoon's match with Chelsea from turning into a nap.  Like Brighton's win over Arsenal, there wasn't anything lucky about the 3-0 final; the Bees were just better.

The Dreaded Three Goal Lead

I was prepared for this section to be entitled The Bubble Burst or something like that after the Union fell behind quickly to Sporting KC.  When I checked my phone they were down 3-0 score at 20 minutes.  When I checked in later I see the score is 3-2 and before I could get the game live on my phone it was 3-3.  Amazingly, Damiani, Cavan Sullivan and Iloski had scored at 64, 66 and 68 minutes.  The turnaround was completed by a Bassong own goal at 73 minutes. You can see the highlights of this comeback here (should open to about the 63rd minute).  Spent the final 20 minutes or so thinking about what a shame it would be to not come away with the win.  Fortunately, they held on.  Note that Quinn Sullivan doesn't appear on the scoresheet but many accounts say the game turned upon his entry into the contest at halftime.

The damn glass half empty people are pointing out that SKC has the worst record in MLS and were level with Cincinnati at 59 goals allowed going into the weekend.  The Union come back put them alone in first in that regard.  The don't talk to me about the glass people simply note that the U are now in 6th.

Bad Time for International Break?

Whether you're happy that we now head into an extended international break depends on who you are.  Newcastle, somewhat banged up, will be in a much stronger place when EPL action returns Saturday October 10th so this is a welcome break.  For the Union, maybe not so much.  First problem is that despite the break, they have a match on Saturday against Orlando, the side just two points behind them in the table.  But they will be missing Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield, Neil Pierre, Andre Blake and Danley Jean Jacques - um, that's over half the starting line-up.  Second, the way they are playing I'm guessing they just want to keep this rolling.

I'm normally not a friendly guy (I mean about watching international friendlies, not my demeanor) but I'll likely try to catch USMNT fixtures to see what contributions Sullivan, Pierre and Westfield make.  The schedule is:

9/26 4:30 pm Peru

9/29 8 pm Chile

10/3 10 pm Mexico

10/6 8 pm Canada

That's all I got this week.  Will be taking next week off and will return 10/9.

Post script:  Dennis has alerted me to ref cam footage available on the EPL website. The commentary from Rob Jones here while he does the Newcastle - Bournemouth match is fascinating, especially his commentary on the Harvey Barnes goal.

Reality Bites

Newcastle get a dose of reality but the Union keep on trucking.

After four weeks in the EPL, here are some groupings.

Teams with a perfect record

Arsenal

Man City

The Gunners didn't exactly dismantle Sunderland at the Stadium of Shite Light but eventually came away with a 2-0 win.  Man City played over 70 minutes of the their Manchester derby down a man but still left Old Trafford with a 1-0 win.  See "You Make the Call "  for some interesting refereeing decisions from those two matches.

Teams with no losses

Arsenal

Man City

Leeds

Hull City

Brentford

Liverpool

Everton

Leeds huddle: Kick Newcastle's butt on three, 1, 2...

As Jim Beglin noted, the chickens came home to roost at Elland Road Park for Newcastle in a 4-1 defeat to Leeds.  The stats had been telling us that the Magpies were mighty lucky to be sitting with a win and two draws after three matches.  Leeds had them on the ropes from the kickoff though it took a little while for it to show up on the scoreboard.  An own goal and an excuse me header in the space of few minutes could have been brushed off as bad luck but it was really the result of relentless pressure.  A third goal just before the half made the game 3-0 and essentially out of reach.  The 4-1 final is kind to Newcastle.

Hull City weren't the ones scrambling for a draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  Other than possession, the stats are pretty even and Hull actually have the better xG (1.57-1.18).  Bournemouth - Brentford was always expected to be close so the 2-2 draw is not a surprise.

Liverpool stayed undefeated but it isn't exactly what they wanted.  They add the 0-0 draw with Fulham to the 2-2 results with Newcastle and Nottingham Forest.  Surely they would have expected more than three points from those fixtures.  And please don't call me Shirley.

Their Merseyside rivals are in the same boat recordwise but likely happier with their lot.  The 0-0 final at Spurs gives them three draws in a row, having previously drawn Man United and Bournemouth 

Newly promoted teams in the top 10

Hull

Ipswich

Hull actually fell to fourth after Leeds dispatched Newcastle. For the second time this season, Ipswich grabbed all three points in the dying seconds of a match, this time snatching a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace with a 90th minute goal from Flemming.  They did play with a man advantage for over 65 minutes so the W isn't a total shock.  Wins over Sunderland and Palace bode well for their relegation challenge.

Teams with no wins

Bournemouth

Spurs

Fulham

Aston Villa

Coventry

Alysson:My Aim Is True (apologies to Elvis Costello)

Aston Villa did finally get a league goal (a nifty header from Alysson) but didn't get any points against Nottingham Forest in a 1-2 defeat.  A bit of bad luck here as Villa had to burn a sub at 24 minutes when Torres went down with injury, then played the final 10+ minutes down a man when Maatsen was injured and Villa had no subs left.  Forest took advantage of that advantage and scored the game winner at 88 minutes.  It wasn't entirely bad luck that left Villa without any subs. Emery made two changes at halftime and another two more just after 60 minutes trying to find a combination that could score a goal.  They got the goal but had no options left when Maatsen went down.

Coventry City were plastered 5-0 by Brighton. Already down 0-2 they had a man sent off at 53 minutes and things just snowballed.  

Teams with no goals

Spurs

Coventry

A subset of the previous group as you cannot win if you do not score

Teams without a point

Coventry

A subset of the previous group as you can only earn a point without scoring by holding the other team scoreless.  Coventry have yielded ten goals in four matches.

You Make the Call

He started it

A few interesting calls this weekend to spice things up.  Arsenal players and fans are up in arms (see what I did there?) about the PK called on Ezri Konsa in the 55th minute of their then scoreless match with Sunderland.  Raya saved the PK, Arsenal scored two minutes later, and eventually won 2-0.  Never mind, they still have to complain.  You can see the play here (should open to the incident).   Looking at the still photo (left), I'm having trouble rousing any sympathy for Konsa.  Yes, Ballard does have a hold on Konsa's jersey.  But Konsa has both arms around Ballard.   I am in the minority of those who are okay with this call but right now I'd rather see a bias towards calling defenders for this kind of grappling.

On to the Manchester derby which had two interesting calls.  Phil Foden got sent off at 23 minutes after this entanglement with Bruno Fernandes.  Reaction was all over the place from play on it's a derby, to yellows for each, to red for Foden yellow for Fernandes to Michael Oliver got it right to red cards for both.  The play on view seems ridiculous to me; so we're going to excuse a certain amount of violence just because it's a derby. Dennis notes, shouldn't you call a derby closer preciously because it could get explosive.  I have little sympathy for the two yellow approach because Foden kicked out in anger and made contact.  Even if the contact was minimal (and it's not clear that it was) to me it's like attempted murder; we know what you were trying to do, you just weren't very good at it.  I would have been okay if Oliver had shown Fernandes a yellow or a red for his actions.  The fact that Fernandes didn't get any sanction does seem unfair but it shouldn't affect the consequences for Foden.  The majority of "informed" opinion that I saw does seem to say that Oliver got it right.

"Hurtling horizontally in the precise direction of the ball"
apparently does not constitute an attempt to play the ball

And then we have the granddaddy of them all, the only one of the weekend that led to an apology from the league.  Shorthanded Man City got a goal in the 60th minute from Haaland; you can see the play here.  A bit to unpack on this one.  To most of us watching, Haaland was obviously in an offside position.  Except he wasn't.  See Error, parallax.  The semi-automated system provided factual support for Haaland being onside.  Ah, but what about Enzo Fernandez diving through the box?  Incredulously, the conclusion was that Fernandez was deemed not to have played the ball.  Granted that is a subjective decision but it's hard to conclude that Fernandez did not affect the defenders with his action of going for the ball.  Former EPL referee Graham Scott unpacks the process (what happened, what should have happened) here.  I checked and the apology from the league and the referees association does not come with a point for Man United.

Time To Carabao It Yet?

Dennis was happy enough with Aston Villa's 3-1 win over Coventry,  Spurs almost made the end of their fixture with Liverpool interesting but the Reds prevailed 3-1 

Here are the fourth round matchups:

Fleetwood Town v Arsenal

Man City v Brighton

Everton v Newcastle

Sunderland v Brentford

Liverpool v Chelsea

Bradford City v Peterborough

Fulham v Crystal Palace

Bournemouth v Aston Villa

These will be played during the week of 10/26.

EPL Still Perfect in Europe

Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Bournemouth all got wins in the first round of league play in the Europa Cup.  That makes the EPL 8-0-0 in European competitions so far.

That Bubble Didn't Burst

Cavan Sullivan: Coming to a national team near you

Each test the Union face has been theoretically tougher but they keep coming through with flying colors.  The latest was a 5-0 win at San Diego. Though each side had their moments in the first half, they were about to head into the lockerroom knotted at 0-0.  Then Vasilev put a tasty cross into the box that Cavan Sullivan turned into one of the more audacious goals of the year.  You can see it here at this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  The second half was really no contest.  Cavan got the first brace of his career with a second goal at 62 minutes.  Sullivan helped on the third just five minutes later on the through ball that Westfield crossed into the box for Damiani to deposit into the net.  An own goal at 87 minutes and a stoppage time tally from Malik Jakupovic (his first MLS goal) got them to the 5-0 final.

This time they did finish the weekend in one of the real playoff spots - 7th, just one point behind Orlando.  There are nine games to go and five teams close on their heels so nothing is for certain yet.  Still, this has been so much more fun.

"Conversation" That Took Place

Dennis:  I need to quick get a commentator job so I can repeatedly say that Philly are the playoff team no one wants to face.

 

Compromised Viewing Ahead

I'm on the road the next two weekends so not sure exactly what I'll get to see.  Probably means watching Peacock replays long after everyone else has gone to sleep.

Friday's 3 pm fixture does not look like a nap waiting to happen.  Brentford are hosting Chelsea and are only very slight underdogs (40/36/24).  Saturday's early 7:30 game also looks very worthwhile as Spurs host Aston Villa.  These sides are mirror images of each other right now - clubs that were expected to challenge for top six positions that have struggled so far.  They both have the personnel to succeed so maybe this is where they both start to gel.  I'm a little surprised how big a favorite Spurs are at 49/26/25.

If I was home, the 10 am choice for me would be Newcastle - Hull.  Opta likes the Magpies big time at 60/20/20.   I would like to think this will be an easy win for Newcastle at home but those numbers don't match up with either side's recent form.   The other choices are reasonably good too - Brighton hosting Arsenal or Everton vs Ipswich.

Not sure how Nottingham Forest vs Coventry ended up as the "feature" 12:30 match on NBC but there it is.

Three choices Sunday at 9 am, none all that tantalizing.  Bournemouth host Liverpool, Crystal Palace are at Elland Road to take on Leeds and Man City will face Sunderland at the Etihad.  I'd probably go with Bournemouth - Liverpool to see if the Reds can build on their Carabao Cup win over Spurs.  The 11:30 match doesn't overwhelm either as winless Fulham will host Man United.

The Union look to extend their streak with another road game, this time at Sporting KC.  That's Saturday at 8:30 on Apple.

If I read everything right, there is no mid-week action.

Bubble Didn't Burst Yet

Good results continue to pour in.  How long can it last?  Six of ten EPL matches ended in a draw.

An Acceptable Draw

Jacob Ramsey lowers his transfer fee to goals ratio
from $27m to $18m (Photo:Scott Heppell/Reuters)

We knew Bournemouth would be tough.  The Cherries manager Marco Rose had a game plan that effectively interrupted Newcastle's ability to move the ball.  When an own goal from Thiaw put Bournemouth up 2-0 at 35 minutes, things looked bleak.  The match turned a mere two minutes later on this pearl of a goal from Harvey Barnes. The team woke up and the crowd was back.  The Magpies were the better side in the second half but didn't grab the equalizer until the 88th minute.  The goal came on a precise shot from the top of the box by Jacob Ramsey, whose Newcastle career is still a work in progress.  Momentum at that point was such that a win didn't seem out of the question but it ended 2-2.

It seemed like a draw was a fair result but stats are telling me different.  Other than possession, they tilt in the Cherries favor, with shots 17/8, shots on  target 5/2 and xG 1.54/.81.  Rallying from a two goal deficit was cool though.

Two Out of Three Ain't Great (apologies to Meat Loaf)

Aston Villa entered the weekend's match with Hull City shotless, goalless, and pointless.  They did register a shot on target (two actually) and came away with a point for the 0-0 draw.  You'll notice that still leaves them goalless and winless so we're not exactly celebrating.  Watching live it felt like the Villans dominated and deserved more but maybe it was just the massive possession advantage (76/24).  Shots weren't all that different, though xG did favor Villa 1.66/.73.  

Spurs are basically matching Aston Villa with their poor start.  They could only manage a 0-0 draw at Nottingham Forest.  Sure it was their first point but like Villa, they are still goalless and winless.  

The Rest of the Draws

Brighton got a 71st minute goal to rescue a 1-1 tie at home to Leeds while Sunderland went until the 82nd minute to get their equalizer for a 1-1 draw with Brentford.  Everton waited even longer, almost too long, to get their 2-2 draw with Man United.   This was a pretty lively contest that went down to basically the last second.  We make Maitland-Niles late equalizer this week's YouTubeableMoment.

At the Top

In the feature match up, the final was only 2-1 but Arsenal looked much better than Chelsea.  Somehow, the outcome never seemed in doubt. I didn't see the match so I have no idea why Man City was only a 1-0 winner over Coventry City.  With Hull City's draw at Aston Villa, these are the only two left with perfect records after just three weeks.  We note that predicted last place finisher Hull City are still in third.

EPL Perfect in Champions League

Aston Villa finally got goals and a win away at Club Brugge. Man City dispatched Porto, also on the road.  Arsenal dominated Napoli but slinked home with a 1-0 win.  Liverpool and Atleti played a tough match at Anfield with the Reds eventually prevailing 2-1.  And Man United cruised 4-0 over CL debutants Sabah.

Edu That Voodoo That You Do

Regular readers know that we are admirers of Nuno Espirito Santo and were quite annoyed last year when he got sacked by Nottingham Forest just three games into the season.  Difficulties with newly appointed Global Head of Football Edu Gaspar were among the reasons cited.  Also recall how Forest then proceeded to go through a string of managerial sackings that included Postecoglou (10/20/25), Dyche (2/12/26) and Pereira (7/1/26).  Now we read that Edu has been terminated from his position - details here.  This just enhances my opinion of owner Evangelos Marinakis.  All that chaos for a guy he doesn't even keep for 15 months.  Though I like many of the players, I'm rooting for them to be relegated.

How Little We Carabao It?

Didn't even know there were some third round matches this week.  Newcastle got past Millwall 1-0 with a late goal from Willock.  More matches next Tuesday - Thursday.

Trap Avoided But Barely

Certainly the first half versus Montreal played out like a trap game.  Though I was only following on my phone, Dennis live at Subaru Park confirmed that it was exceedingly boring.  The second half, which I did see, was an improvement but not awesome.  Danley got the Union up 1-0 at 57 minutes with a scruffy looking goal.  That lead looked like it would be short-lived after Pierre was whistled for a foul in the box but Owusu delivered perhaps the worst PK evah - a weak effort right at Blake.  Cavan Sullivan added the insurance goal at 75 minutes.  Stats indicate the Union dominated but somehow this still felt like a shaky effort against one of the weaker teams in the division.

Nightmare at Subaru Park for Cincinnati: Three assists for
 Cavan and a goal plus two assists for Quinn

They were back at Subaru Park Wednesday for what was expected to be a tougher test against Cincinnati.  After an indifferent opening complexion of the match changed when Nwobodo got sent off for a dangerous challenge on Westfield.  Graham noted at the time that this was not necessarily a good thing as Cincinnati would now park the bus and the Union are not very good at breaking down opponents in that situation.  And for the next 30 minutes or so, that's exactly what happened, to the point where you felt that Union were getting too tense and tentative.  Fortunately at 43 minutes, Quinn Sullivan forced a foul just inside the box and he deftly dispatched the PK for a 1-0 lead.  Things got even better when Damiani took a precise pass from Cavan Sullivan to make it 2-0 in first half stoppage time.  For the second half, the Union did not come out looking to protect the lead but rather to add to it.  Which they did.  Damiani got his second at 49 minutes courtesy of a nice pass from Quinn, then completed his "natural" hat trick with a third at 61 minutes, this time with the help of Cavan.  By this point they were playing so loose, like it was practice.  A late PK made the final 5-0.  

For a brief time, the win slipped the Union into 7th, a real playoff spot as opposed to a play-in slot, but Orlando's win over Atlanta leapfrogged them past both Philadelphia and Cincinnati.  The glass is half full people note that the U didn't mess up the trap game and then got the win in what was theoretically a sterner test.  The glass is half empty types say that it's hard to view the Cincinnati match as a serious test since they played most of it a man up so what have we learned.  Those who don't give a crap about how much water is in the glass point out the Union got six points.    

Still Crowded

And with refereeing starting up... 

No Friday fixture or 7:30 Saturday match so that's helpful.  It's a packed 10 am time slot.  Our choice is definitely Aston Villa - Nottingham Forest; we are definitely looking forward to Villa getting their first goals and first win.  We kind of expect Chelsea to burst Hull City's bubble and Liverpool to keep Fulham pointless.  Either Palace - Ipswich or Bournemouth -Brentford could be entertaining to the neutral.  The feature match at 12:30 on NBC is intriguing as two clubs in disarray - Spurs and Everton - face off.  And we have a "special" 3 pm fixture with Sunderland hosting Arsenal.  

Sunday is light but does include a Manchester Derby.  Coventry City host Brighton at 9 before Man United take on Man City at Old Trafford at 11:30.    The match week concludes on Monday at 3 with Newcastle traveling to Leeds.  We'd like to think this is a good chance for a W but the Magpies form is  bit misleading.

No Champions League but fear not, midweek football in the form of Europa League fixtures is available.  Sunderland play AZ Alkmaar Wednesday at 3 while Bournemouth face Real Sociedad and Palace take on Lech Poznan Thursday at 3 pm.  

And there's Carabao Cup action too.  We draw your attention to the Liverpool-Spurs fixture at 3 pm on Tuesday.  

The Union have a road match out in San Diego on Sunday at 9 pm.  Their overall performance hasn't been great they have been tough at home, with six wins and three draws in 12 matches.

One Saturday in August

Newcastle and the Union get wins on the same day!

Reports of Our Relegation Threat Are Exaggerated

Elanga makes it two in two
Photo: Michael Zemanek/Shutterstock

The scoreline of Sunday's 2-0 win over Spurs is misleading.  After a scoreless first half the match felt like it could go either way.  Then the Magpies got two improbable finishes from two who, based on last year, would have been considered improbable sources - Elanga and Wissa.  Here's Wissa's goal, presented as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The stats have a decidedly Spurs bias - shots 16/7, shots on target 5/2, possession 58/42 and most tellingly xG 1.21/.88.  So Newcastle's only shots on target were the goals.  On a positive note, it looks like Spurs' higher xG is just the result of more shots, not higher probability shots.  

With four points from two matches that could have easily yielded one or none, maybe we need to adjust expectations.  Sure it's only two matches in but there are multiple promising signs including:

- an attacking philosophy right from the kickoffs so far

- Elanga and Wissa scoring like they did in 2024/25

- Hornicek looks like an improvement over Pope

- Dedic looks like a great addition to the backline that will also get stronger when Burn and Livramento return from injury

- new acquisitions Nico Gonzalez and Matias Fernandez-Pardo may not be Guimaraes and Tonali but they could start to fill that void

- no Champions League to add 11 matches to an already crowded schedule

I counsel patience for Spurs; they are likely to be okay once they sort out personnel.  The bad news is that patience hasn't exactly been the hallmark of that club.

Stop Dissing the 7:30 am Saturday Matches

First we had Hull's 2-0 upset of Man United, then we got Liverpool rescuing another 2-2 draw with a late goal.  They had fallen behind early but drew level at 60 minutes.  Forest went up again 10 minutes later after a foul in the box.  New arrival Victor Munoz rescued a point for the Reds with this bit of handiwork close to the goal.  

Low Bar

Aston Villa had a better outing this week, though it would have been difficult to duplicate the Brighton debacle.  Losing 0-1 to last year's champion and this year's favorite Arsenal is hardly a disaster.  They held the Gunners to an xG of just 1.21 on just seven shots with only two on target, so the scoreline is not misleading.  The problem is at the other end of the pitch.  They don't have a shot on target yet this season, let alone a goal.  I have same Rx for them as Spurs.

Myth Information

Turns out Erling Haaland's goalscoring prowess is not linked to his hair. The still-shorn Norseman netted two in Man City's 4-1 romp away to Crystal Palace.  This likely sent a shiver down the collective spine of the EPL.

Top Four

Chelsea had a relatively easy time with Brighton and Hull dispatched relegation rival Coventry City so four sides remain undefeated.  Here's the table after two weeks:

Exactly as predicted.

The Transfer Window Madness

Part of me wants to rail about how Man City was able to spend $257m to get Enzo Fernandez ($169m) and Illiman Ndiaye ($88m) as the summer transfer window closed.  Doesn't sound like financial fair play to me.  But they made a lot selling other players so that their net spend for the window was about $255m, just the fourth highest in the EPL.  The full table is below.

At one point it felt like dominos.  Gakpo was going to City, Ndiaye was going to Spurs and Richarlison was going to Everton.  Then, Gakpo wasn't leaving so City grabbed Ndiaye, leaving Spurs with a very disgruntled Richarlison.  

It was ultimately a frustrating window for USMNT striker Folarin Balogun.  His signing with Everton looked to be a formality until issues arose during his medical.  Monaco did not agree with the Everton medical assessment but they did continue to negotiate and reached a revised deal.  Except Balogun was no longer comfortable signing with Everton, feeling disrespected by the club and medical staff.  Details can be had here.  Just found a more detailed blow-by-blow accounting here.

And just for fun, here's one man's ranking of all 155 transfers this window.  Not necessarily surprised but see a couple of Villa deals near the bottom (looking at you Jackson and Garnacho); at least Manzambi, Goretzka, Suzuki and Gomes rate highly.   His generally positive views on the Newcastle deals mostly match mine.

Still Not Financially Fair

As a reminder, the EPL made a slight tweak to their financial fair play rules.  Previously, spending was controlled by limiting the size of the operating loss a club could sustain.  In other words, costs could only exceed revenues by a targeted amount.  Now they will use a squad cost ratio, which basically limits spending on players to 85% of their revenue.  It's a slightly different calculation with basically the same effect - your ability to spend $ on players is limited by your revenues.  

Given the massive variation in revenue between the clubs, this still doesn't look like a move towards greater fairness.  The most recent data I can find is from the 2024/25 season, available here.  Several clubs are over $900m while many are under $300m.  The chart below shows how that translates into a massive difference in allowable spending on players.

There's a fivefold difference between top and bottom and most clubs can only spend half or less of what the top four can spend.  Sure looks like the rules will still protect those with existing high revenue bases while preventing others from breaking through.

Milking the Cows

Pierre used his feet this time, not his head

Decidedly distracted viewing on my part but the Union's 3-1 win over Red Bulls sure looked deserved.  Stats mostly back that opinion; for example, xG was 3.5/2.1.  Check out this peach (link revised) of a goal from Cavan Sullivan.  Pierre got another one, not via the header but instead used his long frame to poke the ball into the net.  

They are now just one point out of a "play-in playoff" spot and four away from a real playoff position.  

Midweek Football Is Back

Just a three day match weekend for the EPL but plenty of Champions League action midweek.

Friday's 3 pm match/nap has Liverpool traveling to Ipswich.  At 59/20/21 that might be more of a nap, though maybe it will be Liverpool's third straight 2-2 draw?

No dissing this week's Saturday 7:30 fixture with Newcastle hosting Bournemouth; the Magpies are prohibitive favorites (44/31/25) but this could be a close one.  The 10 am time slot is crowded with five fixtures.  TV picked the Man City - Coventry City mismatch.  I'd go with Nottingham Forest v Spurs on Peacock as the most interesting pick; off recent form Spurs are slight underdogs (40/33/27) but this may be where they start to figure things out.  Other choices at 10 are Brentford - Sunderland, Fulham - Palace and Brighton -Leeds.  The feature match is Hull hosting Aston Villa; I believe this is the match where Villa get a shot on target and a win.  

Sunday is light but decent.  At 9 you get Everton vs Man United, then at 11:30 there's a solid London Derby with Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  In the latter, Opta sees the Gunners as a massive favorite at 57/19/24 but that seems high to me.

For midweek football lovers we have a complete Champions League schedule as they begin league play.  Full schedule is here.  Being EPL-centric, we note Tuesday has Aston Villa vs Club Brugge at 12:30 and Man City - Porto at 3.  Wednesday is Napoli- Arsenal and Liverpool-Atletico Madrid, both at 3.  The EPL's fifth entry, Man United, play Sabah at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to extend their unbeaten streak to eight as they host Montreal at Subaru Park Saturday at 7:30.  A home match versus the struggling 14th place side?  Has trap game with a capital T written all over it.  Hopefully they don't fall into it.  They also have Cincinnati on Wednesday at 7:30, again at home.  They could significantly boost their playoff chances with some results here.  

Days off are going to be scarce for a while.