Ich Bin Ein Magpie

We'll start with doings at the south end of the table.  After leaving St. James' Park with a draw, Dennis turned into a full-time Newcastle fan since the Magpies still had fixtures with Aston Villa's main relegation rivals - Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford.  I did suggest to him that any strategy relying on Newcastle was risky to say the least.  Like depending on Susan Collins to vote the right way.

Almiron: He did so well, including the finish
Photograph: Glyn Kirk/NMC Pool/PA Images

But his faith was rewarded on Wednesday as Newcastle, not looking like any Magpie side I can remember, cut through Bournemouth 4-1 at Vitality Stadium.  Dwight Gayle turned a mistake into a quick goal at five minutes and Sean Longstaff added a second at 30 minutes after Saint-Maximin schooled three defenders in the box.  This being Newcastle though, I spent the next 30 minutes waiting for the other shoe to drop.  And it almost did as the Cherries came out much stronger in the second half.  But Almiron put a third in at 57 minutes, basically walking through the Bournemouth defense and slotting an unchallenged shot into the corner of the net.  At that point I was forced to concede that a draw was a real possibility.  An equally nifty and easy play by loanee Valentino Lazaro completed Newcastle's day at 77 minutes, which meant Ryan Dan Gosling's stoppage time goal was merely annoying.

On Sunday, Southampton had put a surprising 3-1 loss on Watford at Vicarage Road, taking expected points away from the Hornets.  So despite Aston Villa's 0-1 loss to Wolves (in which the Villans were not awful, just incapable of finishing - and which was going to be a loss anyway), Dennis's week wasn't going too badly.  Until Wednesday evening that is.  Chelsea, looking good but by no means a lock for a CL spot, stumbled badly, 2-3, at West Ham.  Down 1-2, Willian had looked to at least get the Blues a draw with a goal at 72 minutes.  But a smash and grab counterattack from the Hammers yielded a late goal from Yarmalenko and all three points for West Ham.  The damage to Chelsea's Champions League ambitions was no where near as bad as what it did to Aston Villa.

Using 538 projections, but forcing wins, losses and draws (if winning percentage differential is less than 10 - I call it a draw), I get the following:

West Ham         39 (9 points in final six matches)
Watford             35 (7 points in final six matches)
Aston Villa       28 (1 point in final six matches)
Bournemouth   27 (0 points in final six matches)
Norwich           21 (0) points in final six matches)

To quote Scrooge McDuck - tell me these events can yet be changed.  Maybe.  To start with, besides a draw with Crystal Palace, Villa have to beat West Ham in London on the final day of the season. They also need Newcastle to beat Watford (538 has Watford favored to win) in Week 35 and Watford have to [draw/lose with Norwich in Week 34 (projected as a win) and] lose to West Ham (projected as a draw) in Week 36.  Plus Watford can't pick up any unexpected points against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal.  Recalculating based on the three [four] changes (Villa over West Ham, Newcastle over Watford, Norwich draw with Watford and West Ham over Watford) we get this revised table [updated to reflect math error!?]:

West Ham         41
Aston Villa       31
Watford            29
Bournemouth   27
Norwich           22

Dennis's reaction when I went through the details.

[Update: To clarify, it wasn't a math error.  I had Villa starting at 28, not 27 points.  So in addition to the original three favorable results, Villa also need Watford to lose to or draw with Norwich.  Alternatively, Villa could grab a draw or win at Everton. Either are equally long odds - about 40%.] We can also develop a scenario in which Villa catch West Ham but finish behind Watford but frankly that requires a lot more favorable results (like West Ham not beating Norwich) so I'm going to leave that out for the moment.


The Horse Had Already Left the Barn

On Thursday, Man City rolled all over Liverpool 4-0 in a match that back in August might have looked like a big fixture.  But with the Reds clinching the title last week, all it meant was that City closed the gap to 20 points.  To be fair, Man City had some decent reasons, even leaving aside pride, to push hard in this match because Liverpool are chasing several records that they currently hold.  For example, the win means that Liverpool cannot match City's record of 16 away wins in a season.  Liverpool still have a shot at most points in a season (100), biggest winning margin (19)and most victories in a season (32) so we can maybe understand City's intensity here.  On the other hand, the barn door was left open for a long time...


Correct Call, Stupid Rule

So VAR took another hit on Thursday when Spurs saw an equalizing goal against Sheffield United ruled for handling.  Except it's not the fault of VAR, it's the new handling rule.  Sheffield had just scored but Kane and Spurs leveled things, or so they thought, almost immediately.  But the ball had bounced off the arm of Lucas Moura on its way to Kane.  No doubt it was unintentional, as Moura was falling down at the time.  But the rule couldn't be clearer:

A goal scored or created with the use of the hand or arm will be disallowed even if it is accidental. The handball rule does not consider intent by a player. 

The guys in the booth got it wrong.  Back in the studio, Kyle Martino and Robbie Musto got it exactly right.  The call was absolutely correct given the rules.  But the rules are stupid.  Musto's suggestion was to modify the rule so that goals will be ruled out if they go in directly from handling, accidental or not, but unintentional handling in the build-up shouldn't be called.  The incident and the analysis can be seen here, as this week's YouTubeableMoment(s).

The 1-3 loss is a gut punch to Spurs' Champions League hopes, especially with Man United (easy 3-0 win over Brighton) and Wolves (eking past Aston Villa) getting three points.  The Special One was coy in his feelings about the call, citing the fear of suspension, but he also laid into the team for not responding better to the adverse call.


Newcastle Unveil 10-0-0 Formation

The line up sheet showed a 3-4-3 for Newcastle against Man City in the FA Cup quarterfinal match but we knew that really meant a 5-2-3.  But within minutes it was clearly a 9-0-1 as City put the Magpies under the gun.  Not too long after that, even Andy Carroll was playing behind the ball and the switch to a 10-0-0 was complete.  Did it work?  Yes and no.  Man City could only manage a 2-0 win and one of those was a PK after a stupid push by Fabian Schar in the box late in the first half.  But was it football?  I think the first half possession was 82-18.  Final stats were 76/24, 20/4 total shots and 4/1 shots on goal. I get protecting against a big hit to goal differential in a league contest but not sure why it would matter in a Cup quarterfinal.  Unless Steve Bruce had hoped to keep the match within reach until late with a chance to snatch a late goal.  Whatever.  It was essentially unwatchable.

Not so the other three quarterfinals.  Chelsea - Leicester wasn't awesome but it was close.  Ross Barkley provided the difference with a 63rd minute goal.  Norwich gave Man United far more than expected and Cantwell's goal at 75 minutes was enough to force the match into extra time.  With the prospect of spot kicks looming, Harry Maguire spared us that dreaded process with a poacher-like effort to slip the ball past Tim Krul.  Norwich tenacity was all the more notable given that the Canaries played the extra time down a man.  The script at Bramall Lane was nearly similar.  Underdogs Sheffield United looked to have forced extra time with McGoldrick's goal at 87 minutes.  But Dani Ceballos slipped one inside the near post to send the Gunners onto the semi-finals.

So we will see Arsenal - Man City on July 18 and Man United - Chelsea on July 19, both matches at Wembley.


Abstentia?

Arlo White keeps saying Liverpool clinched the title in "abstentia."  Can't find this on the internet.  Does it mean a state of not drinking?  A small country that was formerly part of the USSR?  I don't know.

Another random observation. I swear ESPN perfectly simulated a restless crowd at St. James' Park during the 0-2 FA Cup loss in which Newcastle played the role of a punch drunk sparring partner to Man City. 


I Mee Scored

Not a grammatical error.  Ben "Eff" Mee got a great header goal in the otherwise unnoteworthy 1-0 win for Burnley over Crystal Palace.  Not saying they were in flip flops but not too much at stake there.  


Back to Double Duty

Triple if you have any plans to watch the MLS tournament.

Match week 33 plays out over Saturday-Monday and Match week 34 runs from Tuesday-Thursday.  I'd go with Wolves - Arsenal as the match of week 33 (Saturday 12:30 NBCSN).  Aside from just plain enjoying watching the Wolves play, this is a big test for them if they really fancy themselves as Champions League participants.  Same for Arsenal - a loss here might leave them too far back.  Surprisingly - to me anyway - 538 has the Gunners as big underdogs here.  And NBC, some Indy car race means you bumped the feature match of the weekend to NBCSN?  What's up with that?  Guess motor car racing fits the July 4th holiday better than English football.  

Show of hands.  Who's getting up at 7:30 on Saturday for Norwich - Brighton.  That's what I thought.  Man United hosting Bournemouth at 10 am (NBCSN) has implications at the top and bottom of the table, as does Chelsea - Watford at 3:00 on NBCSN.  They look like comfortable home wins; Dennis certainly hopes so.  Leicester, looking for a boost to nail down their spot, face - Crystal Palace (10 am NBC Gold).

Newcastle - West Ham (9:15 NBCSN) may be the best of Sunday's fare.  With Aston Villa traveling to Anfield (11:30 NBCSN), Dennis will be hoping for better results elsewhere - looking at you Man United, Chelsea and Newcastle.  Sheffield United face a stern test at Burnley (7 am Sunday NBCSN) to see if they really are going to contend for a Champions League berth.  The matchweek concludes on Monday with Spurs hosting Everton (3 pm NBCSN); I would think anything less than a win for Tottenham is the end of Champions League hopes.

I'm going with Arsenal - Leicester (3:15 Tuesday) as the pick for Week 34; aside from looking like a close match, the implications for a top four or five or six finish could be massive.  Dennis and I will be closely following Watford - Norwich (1 pm Tuesday) and West Ham - Burnley (1 pm Wednesday), looking for dropped points from Aston Villa's relegation rivals.  Especially since Villa have to take on surging Man United on Thursday (3:15) and are not likely to get any points themselves.  I would also recommend Sheffield United - Wolves (1 pm Wednesday) as the two upstart clubs face each other.

I will admit to skepticism about the MLS Is Back Tournament.  Feels very gimmicky and basically a way to get the players some conditioning before the "season" starts.  Group stage runs from July 8 to July 23.  Final is set for August 11.  Details on the brackets and schedule are here.  Firm details on what happens after the tournament are lacking, though there is still noise about an 18-22 game regular season starting in late August.

This hot weather sure makes it easy to stay inside and watch matches.