"A Catalog of Errors"

A mostly crappy week for BFS sides, Frank Lampard beats Steve Bruce in the sack race and a new interpretation of the offside law. Plus BFS housekeeping tips.

A particularly crappy week for Newcastle, the only side to lose two league matches during the week.  The fact that, other than Aston Villa, the Magpies were the only team to have two league matches is beside the point.  Saturday was the Fillebrown derby between Newcastle and Aston Villa which we watched together via Zoom.  This one would best be described as a "routine win" for Villa.  Goals at 13 and 42 minutes were more than sufficient.  For Newcastle, it was a better quality loss.  They actually had 40% possession and a shot on target.  But a loss nonetheless.  I believe one of the announcers labelled it a "catalog of errors."

Saint-Maximin - the only thing standing between
 Newcastle and relegation?

Right back at it again on Tuesday against Leeds.  Continued improvement yet there they were, down 0-1 at 17 minutes.  The Magpies were much better after the break and when Callum Wilson made the deftest of touches to send Almiron in on goal to level things at 57 minutes, there was even some thought they could grab all three points.  Easy there, Sparky.  A mere four minutes later they were behind again.  The introduction of Allan Saint-Maximin at 64 minutes raised both our spirits and the prospect of an equalizer.  Didn't happen but this was easily the best they played, well, since ASM went down with covid.  The team's performance in that 30 minutes was probably enough to keep Bruce around at least through the weekend.  Especially given how it's clear that the team has been operating without their best offensive weapon for a few months now. 

BFS Sides Fare Poorly in Matchweek 20

We already did the post mortem on Newcastle.  Aston Villa celebrated their big derby win by coughing up the lead twice before eventually falling 2-3 to Burnley.  This is the first time all year that the Villans scored first yet did not win.  Villa had pushed the Clarets all over the place but failed to convert multiple opportunities.  Man United didn't do themselves (or Newcastle for that matter) any favors in a 1-2 defeat to Sheffield United.  Spurs completed the slam with a flat performance against a Liverpool side that had struggled to even put the ball into the net in league matches; the 3-1 win for the Reds looked entirely deserved.

Akinfenwa gives new meaning
 to the term target striker

Consolation to those sides include that Villa got the win over Newcastle, Man United has a stirring 3-2 win over Liverpool in their FA Cup match (best viewing of the week?) and Spurs eased past Championship Division Wycombe in their FA Cup tie.  We'll make the Bruno Fernandes game winning free kick for United this week's  YouTubeableMoment; yeah, that's quality.  The Spurs contest provided us with our annual glimpse of BFS fave Adebayo Akinfenwa, the Charles Barkley of the EFL (see picture right).  In the Man City close call versus Cheltenham, we also got to see current Forest Green loanee Taylor Harwood-Bellis in action for the Cityzens; the fact that he left the match with the score 0-1 and City then scored three goals after his departure should not be taken as a statement on his quality.

There was no consolation for Newcastle, except maybe that ASM is healthy.

Well That Didn't Take Long

Within days of the offside incident in the Man City Aston Villa match (discussed here last week), we had a new interpretation of the offside law.  Guidance to match officials now includes: 

“Where a player in an offside position immediately impacts on an opponent who has deliberately played the ball, the match officials should prioritise challenging an opponent for the ball, and thus the offside offence of ‘interfering with an opponent by impacting on the opponent’s ability to play the ball’ should be penalised.

“However, it is important to remember that where a player in an offside position receives the ball from an opponent who deliberately plays the ball (e.g. a misplaced pass or miskick), including by deliberate handball, the player is not considered to have gained an advantage, unless it was a deliberate save by any opponent.”

This helps in the specific situation we saw but still leaves some other distasteful (at least IMHO)  possibilities.  For example, on a cross into the box, suppose a defender rises up and heads the ball in an attempt to clear it but instead heads it towards the goal to an attacker standing in an offside position, who promptly deposits the ball into the old onion bag.  As I read the new interpretation, that goal would stand.  Oh well, a little progress is still good I guess.

Meet the New Boss (apologies to The Who)

Same as the old boss?  Somewhat surprisingly to me, Frank Lampard got sacked after a 3-1 FA Cup win over Luton Town.  I figured he had at least until the Spurs match next week.  Abramovich just doesn't have that much patience.  His replacement is Thomas Tuchel, a German late of Paris Saint-Germain.  So how'd that go?  A 0-0 draw at home to Wolves is not exactly what they were looking for.  True, many of the stats favor the Blues but expected goals was still less that 1.0 so the performance couldn't have been that great.  

Why Don't They Have Cleaning Shows?

Cable TV is full of cooking shows but what about cleaning?  Nothing.  I offer the following guidance on how to get the house cleaned while still getting in maximum EPL viewing.  Let's assume that it's Saturday and there are four matches - 7:30, 10:00, 12:30 and 3:00 and that they are on NBCSN or NBC so DVR is an option; assume the wash cycle is 45 minutes, dryer cycle is 70 minutes.  The schedule would look something like this:

• 7:30 - Watch first half of early match while eating breakfast
• 8:20-8:35 - Put first load of laundry in at halftime
• 8:35-9:25 - Watch second half
• 9:25-10:00 - Put first load of laundry in dryer and start second load; do breakfast dishes
• 10:00-10:50 - Watch first half of 10:00 game
• 10:50-11:05 -Take first load of laundry out of dryer, put second load in dryer, start third load
• 11:05-11:55 - Watch second half of 10:00 game
• 11:55-12:30 - Clean down stairs bathroom (or vacuum living room) and fold first load of laundry
• 12:30-1:20 - Watch first half of NBC feature match
• 1:20-1:35 - Take second load of laundry out of dryer, put third load in dryer
• 1:35- 2:25 - Watch second half of NBC feature match
• 2:25-3:00 - Clean two upstairs bathrooms (or vacuum kitchen, dining and TV rooms)
• 3:00-3:50 - Watch first half of late afternoon match
• 3:50-4:05 - Take third load of laundry and fold second and third loads of laundry
• 4:05-4:55 - Watch second half 

Of course I kid.  Some weeks there is no vacuuming or bath room cleaning.

No Let Up

Two more match weeks crammed into five days.  We call your attention to Arsenal - Man United, Saturday's NBC feature match at 12:30.  Other good one looks like Chelsea - Tottenham on Thursday at 3 pm.  And surprisingly, West Ham vs Liverpool is 5th vs 4th on Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock.  Liverpool are favored but the Hammers haven't lost in six.  

Newcastle have a tough road match at Everton (7:30 Saturday), then a home match Tuesday with Crystal Palace that offers the hope of maybe a point.  Aston Villa have two difficult tests coming on the heels of the Burnley loss - at Southampton (3 pm Saturday) and home to West Ham (Wednesday 3:15).

West Brom are looking at their best chance to make a move to avoid relegation with matches against Fulham (Saturday 10 on Peacock) and Sheffield United (Tuesday at 1 pm).  Of course their rivals are thinking the same thing.  We can hope that Brighton will not catch Newcastle this week no matter what the Magpies do since the Seagulls have Tottenham on Sunday (2:15 on Peacock) and Liverpool on Wednesday (3:15).  

At the top, Man City is looking at a relatively easy six points in Sheffield United (Saturday at 10 on NBCSN) and Burnley on Wednesday at 1.  Third place Leicester is in almost as good a position with a home match versus Leeds ( Sunday at 9 on Peacock) and on the road at Fulham on Wednesday at 1 pm. In addition to Arsenal, Man United will need to be careful when they host Southampton on Tuesday at 3:15.  Everton could also re-insert themselves into the picture with matches versus Newcastle and Leeds.

Of course, the way the form sheet has been taking a beating this year, maybe none of this will play out as expected.

Too Many Holes in the Dike

After a not awful first half, the wheels fell off and Arsenal coasted to a 3-0 win that was as frustrating as it was expected.  Where to start?  Surprisingly, Bruce went with a more attacking 4-4-2 formation.  Which I don't really have a problem with, except why didn't he do that against Sheffield United, a match where the odds of a result were much higher?  They got pretty much nothing from Joe L. Linton and Almiron; as Dennis notes, it's getting downright scary when Almiron is dribbling in the Newcastle defensive third.  Matty Longstaff got caught sleeping on the second goal.  Shelvey had too few moments of incisive passing and his corner kicks (Newcastle's best only offensive weapon) failed to make it to the box.  Geez, even Karl Darlow made a mistake in this one, though he also had his usual complement of heroic stops.  

Of course the defeat raised the volume on the calls for Bruce's scalp.  To some extent, I can see an issue - the team does not look particularly motivated at this point.  Sure, there are injuries and covid stuff plus the usual lack of talent but he's not getting even close to the best out of what he has.  The next four matches are Villa, Leeds, Everton and Crystal Palace.  Failure to secure some points out of this set of fixtures is probably the end for Bruce.

Speaking of managers on the hot seat, Chelsea's lackluster performance in an 0-2 loss to Leicester actually put Frank Lampard's odds of getting sacked higher than Bruce.  Fortunately for Lampard, his legacy means he probably has some time to recover.  But there are two looming fixtures (home to Wolves next week and Spurs on 2/2 - [Michael B looking for b-day present there]) that may well determine whether he makes it to Valentine's Day. 

Good week for Man City and Leicester as they each grab two victories and now sit 2-3 in the table.  Man United's 0-0 draw with Liverpool (boring, like a heavyweight fight) and win over Fulham have them sitting top of the table.

I Got Your Offside Right Here 

"If the law supposes that," said Mr. Bumble, squeezing his hat emphatically in both hands, "the law is a ass — a idiot. "

Mings best option would have been to let Rodri have the ball

Charles Dickens' Mr. Bumble was not speaking of Law 11 - Offside but he could have been.  Aston Villa and Man City were having a fun, wide-open game of football, even if it was scoreless.  Then, this.  Rodri clearly came from an offside position, stole the ball from Mings which led to Silva's admittedly awesome strike.  But there would be no offside call, and alas, according to the law, there shouldn't have been, as Mings deliberately played the ball.  Though Rodri was in an offside position, you can't say he's doing one of the four things that would be called interfering with opponent:

preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or

challenging an opponent for the ball or

clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or

making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

But how can you say that Rodri's position didn't give him an advantage?  Mings' best play would have been to play the ball in a much safer manner, or even better, let Rodri get to the ball first.  Seems like that creates silly incentives and/or requires some serious on-the-fly calculations by the players.  If Mings had gained clear possession and then lost it to Rodri's tackle, that seems okay.  But for Rodri to benefit from Mings's sloppy attempt to play the ball by being in an offside position doesn't seem right.  If we are to believe Dean Smith he got a red card for first asking the 4th official if they got "juggling balls for Christmas," then responding to Jonathan Moss's statement to him that "he was interpreting the rules" with "well you should have done that earlier in the game."  Seems kind of tame.  Guess you had to be there.

City added a goal in stoppage time after Cash was called (correctly we thought) for handling in the box so the final was 2-0.  Not an awful result for the Villans; they played City tough and had their own chances.  

It Don't Come Easy (apologies to Ringo Starr)

In some cases, it don't come at all.  Other than Arsenal's triumph over Newcastle and Man City's easy 4-0 dismantling of Crystal Palace, the favorites faced some tough sledding against the lesser lights.  For example, Fulham recorded close calls against Chelsea and Man United.  In the Chelsea match they were down a man after 44 minutes but only lost 0-1, the goal coming in the 78th minute.  Against Man United, they took an early lead and it wasn't until Paul Pogba's 65th minute strike that they were finally vanquished.  West Brom came from 1-2 down to surprise Wolves and then caused West Ham all kinds of headaches in a 1-2 defeat there.  Sheffield United had Spurs fans sweating until Ndombele's "did he really do that?" goal salted that match away; we'll make that one this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Brighton beat Leeds 1-0, a disappointment not so much in who won but in that it was such a flat affair.  

But the best of the lot were Burnley.  After a narrow 0-1 loss at West Ham, they ended Liverpool's 428 68-game home unbeaten streak with a 1-0 win fueled by a late PK.  Frankly, I thought the call on Alisson was a bit soft but that's okay because Barnes had been fouled even worse by a Liverpool defender as he entered the box.  Also, Liverpool have not scored in 438 minutes.  Geez, even Newcastle are under 200 minutes. 

 

Another FA Cup Weekend

In surprise move, Bruce announces Newcastle
will go with a back three, with himself as one of the three

Except for the delayed BFS derby between Aston Villa and Newcastle at 3 pm on Saturday (Peacock).  The Villans are deservedly solid favorites.  Dean Smith will be phoning it in from the stands and John McGinn will be serving a suspension for accumulated yellow cards.  I predict that even though Darlow is hardly to blame for the recent troubles, Bruce will go with Dubravka for this one.  

The FA Cup matches are spread over Friday through Tuesday.  I'll probably surf ESPN+ in search of any of my Forest Green players.  Also, Man United vs Liverpool at noon on Sunday might be a better game than their 0-0 draw last Sunday.  

Midweek EPL action continues with a full slate of Matchweek 20 contests.  Best of the bunch is Liverpool-Tottenham at 3 pm on Thursday (NBCSN); important fixture for both as they try to stay relevant to the top four.  Everton - Leicester at 3:15 on Wednesday (Peacock) deserves a look.  Hot seat manager specials are Leeds - Newcastle (Tuesday 1pm on NBCSN) and Chelsea - Wolves (Wednesday 1 pm on Peacock).  Scoreboard-watching relegation candidates will take note of West Brom - Man City (Tuesday 3:15 on NBCSN), Burnley - Aston Villa (Wednesday 1 pm Peacock), Brighton - Fulham (Wednesday 2:30 Peacock) and Man United (Wednesday 3:15 on NBCSN).  I could see making time for the Brighton - Fulham match; quite important to both sides and should be competitive.

I can only hope that the post-holiday inertia for my projects continues as long as midweek football does.

Pre-Relegation

Test results came back from the lab on Tuesday afternoon and Newcastle have been diagnosed as Pre-relegation.  Like pre-hypertensive or pre-diabetic, this is a condition in which your current numbers say you're not in immediate danger but if you're not careful, you could be.  

Warning signs were there even before the match started.  Facing Sheffield United, a team with the fewest goals scored, second most allowed and no wins, Steve Bruce decided to go with a 5-4-1 lineup that featured just two players who could be said to have any attacking skills - Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser.  He put Sean Longstaff in a False No. 10 role.  Definitions vary but it is clearly supposed to be a playmaking/attacking role.  Except Longstaff - who is excellent as a defensive midfielder- is about as suited to this part as I am to playing Macbeth in anything more than a grade school production. A false, False No. 10 if you will. Not surprisingly, Sheffield had the upper hand for the most of the first half.  Darlow again kept the Magpies in the match.  

The beginning of the end - Fraser is sent off

Things went further south went Ryan Fraser committed two reckless challenges in the closing five minutes of the first half and got himself sent off, leaving a 0-0 draw as Newcastle's only chance for getting a result.  Somewhat to their credit, they nearly pulled it off.  But a handling call on Fernandez at 73 minutes and Billy Sharp's subsequent conversion of the PK meant the seal was broken and any chance of a result gone.  Personally I thought the call was soft.  The announcers were convinced it was a good call but Dennis, either humoring or agreeing with me, thought they were "confidently incorrect."  You can see the incident here (forward to about 8:29).  I think Madley had at least two reasons to ignore the handling; Sharp was pushing Fernandez and the contact with the hand looked totally random to me. 

Too much attention to the call draws attention away from the fact that this is a team fully capable of being relegated.  They were in trouble even before Fraser got sent off.  Their only game plan these days is to play for a 0-0 draw.   While a heroic approach against the likes of Liverpool, it's a shocking strategy against teams of Sheffield United's stature.  Yes, covid-19 was a disruptive event; Allan Saint-Maximin isn't even training yet.  This is what transfer windows are for - to make the necessary adjustments.  Only 17 shopping days left.

More Medical News

Aston Villa test results from the lab revealed a different problem - at least 10 players diagnosed with covid-19.  They went ahead with their weekend FA Cup match with Liverpool, using their U-23 squad in a 1-4 defeat.  Dennis does not seem heartbroken with the early exit.  Wednesday's match with Spurs was postponed as is Sunday's match with Everton.  As of Sunday, the Villans will have four games in hand.  Two have already been rescheduled.  Matchweek 1's contest with Man City will be next Wednesday (1/20) and the much-anticipated BFS Derby with Newcastle will be Saturday 1/23.

The league testing numbers for 1/4-1/10 saw 36 positive tests, the highest since they started.  The key question I guess is whether it keeps rising from here.

Non-Medical Results

Competitive matches across the board for the other mid-week contests provided interesting viewing.  Everton are getting healthy again (Digne and James are back) and the Toffees were a little much for Wolves in their 2-1 win.  The Manchester sides squeaked out 1-0 wins against lower table opponents.  United were likely very happy to leave Turf Moor with their 1-0 win over Burnley on the strength of Pogba's awesome volley - this week's YouTubeableMoment.  City could only manage a first half goal from Phil Foden in vanquishing Brighton.  

But 1-0 is better than 1-1, which was all Tottenham could get at home versus Fulham.  This looked a bit like a replay of the Wolves draw in which Spurs closed up shop too early.  We suspect some unrest among the fans in North London.  Also, we don't need relegation candidates picking up points where they shouldn't be.  Recall that this was a substitute fixture for Spurs- Aston Villa.  After finding out on Monday morning that they would have to play Tottenham on Wednesday evening, Fulham manager Scott Parker called the late notice rescheduling "unfair and wrong" and "scandalous."  Mourinho essentially told him to "man up."  

Also in the somewhat not helpful category is Arsenal's 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace.  Sure, it continues the Gunners' unbeaten streak but 1) that's a match they should be winning and 2) it wasn't like they dominated and were unlucky.  Not sure we can even consider Palace a relegation rival at this point but they are starting to slowly pull away from Newcastle.

FA Cup

I did sample some of the matches, mostly looking to find any of my Football Manager Forest Green players.  Didn't see anyone from current roster but a couple from last year's squad saw action.  Antoine Semenyo (loanee on last year's squad) played for Bristol City in their 2-1 win over Portsmouth and Farrend Rawson was at center defender for Mansfield Town in their 1-2 loss to Cheltenham.   Though I didn't get to see him, current squad member Grant Ward did appear for Blackpool in their upset of West Brom.   

Rossett Park - The Water Tower but with grass

This year's award for Venue Most Reminiscent of the Water Tower goes to Rossett Park, home of Marine AFC of the Northern Premier League in the 8th tier of English football.   Cheap lighting?  Check.  Houses backed right up to the field?  Check.  Better sod though.

Newcastle made an early exit, falling to Arsenal in extra time.  Like Dennis, I am not heartbroken with the result.  Aside from Villa and Newcastle, other top tier casualties include Crystal Palace (to Wolves), West Brom (to Blackpool) and Leeds (to Crawley Town).  At least Newcastle, Villa and Palace fell to Premier League opponents.  We note that the FA Cup's quaint tradition of not seeding teams has resulted in a fourth round match up between Man United and Liverpool.  

Sterling Moments

For some reason, Dennis and I cannot help but rag on Raheem Sterling.  Probably something to do with the nature of the contract dispute that led to his exit from Liverpool.  Anyway, we collect and rank his gaffes, like missing a wide open shot, getting stripped of the ball while trying to beat three defenders at once, etc.   On Wednesday, after his failure to convert the PK that would have put the match out of reach, we texted each other within seconds:

Steve: Number 2 all time? Sterling skies the PK well over the bar.

Dennis: "Sterling skies PK." Have we ranked that one yet?

Number 1 remains "No PK awarded and Sterling is booked for simulation."

Always Something On

A full weekend plus matches Monday thru Thursday.  Biggest of the bunch is clearly Liverpool - Man United Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock (really?).  Nothing like 1 v 2.  Liverpool are favored despite the recent drop in form.  Just hoping for a good one here.

Another fixture worth looking in on is Leicester v Southampton at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock.  Bigger test for Southampton there but still should be a good one.  

Newcastle get to travel to their special Little Shop of Horrors - the Emirates - for a Monday afternoon clash with Arsenal.  That always ends well for the Magpies.  Including the recent FA Cup loss, I count nine straight losses there, the last five being shutouts.  

Saturday's 12:30 "feature" match on NBC is Fulham - Chelsea; certainly not a big Blues fan but hoping they take care of business against a clear relegation rival.  More sympathetic to Spurs to begin with and are fully behind them as they take on Sheffield United on Sunday morning ( 9 am NBCSN).  A little more indifferent about Man City - Crystal Palace (2:15 on Sunday on Peacock) - no love loss for the Cityzens and do have a soft spot for the Eagles, even if they might be a key Newcastle competitor.  Yikes, at 538 they have the percentages at 90/1/9 for that one - on any given Sunday blah, blah, blah.

Since we're now on full-time relegation watch, we'll also likely check in on Wolves - West Brom even with the 7:30 Saturday am start time.  I'll have a dilemma at 10 am choosing between Leeds - Brighton (NBCSN) or West Ham - Burnley (Peacock).  I'm guessing the former will be the more interesting, attractive contest to watch; the forecast at 538 suggests it should be very close (38/37/25 in very slight favor of Leeds).

There are five weekday matches to look in on.  Leicester - Chelsea Tuesday at 3:15 (NBCSN) is easily the best of the lot.  This is a big chance for the Foxes to establish their top four credentials; conversely, Frank Lampard's odds are soaring in the Sack Race and he really needs a statement result.  We'll certainly tune in for Man City  - Aston Villa (Wednesday 1 pm NBCSN), though definitely with low expectations. Our relegation-based scoreboard watching will continue with West Ham - West Brom (Tuesday at 1 pm on Peacock), Fulham - Man United (Wednesday at 3:15 on NBCSN) and Liverpool - Burnley (3 pm Thursday on NBCSN).  You can guess our allegiances in each of those.

Biggest news of the week may be the announcement of the test results.  Another jump in the positive results might be a sign we're headed for a pause or worse.  It's not like I don't have other things to occupy my time but still would prefer the season continues.

The Seventeen Days of Christmas

Southampton's 1-0 upset of Liverpool Monday afternoon ended the 17-day, 40 39 38 37game holiday period.  Let's assess the damage.

First, the scoring system.

   A Christmas Story - You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time; yes the Bumpuses hounds ate the turkey but you had Chinese duck instead.

            It's A Wonderful Life - things turned out pretty well

                        Love Actually - not everybody gets everything they wanted

                                     How the Grinch Stole Christmas - except this time his heart didn't grow 10 sizes that day and he did not return the presents or the roast beast

                                                Die Hard - Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas than you

This year we're not doing half Santa's.  Too wishy washy.  Also, I can't find the half Santa icon.

Now the data.

The 538 Expected is based on their win/lose/draw percentages; the SF Expected is me forcing those percentages into whole wins and draws.  The Percent columns tell us what percent of points the clubs actually garnered compared to available, 538 Expected and SF Expected.  We do these "degree of difficulty" adjustments because if you had to play Man City, Liverpool and Leicester City your chances of getting nine points is considerably less than if you played, say, West Brom, Newcastle, and Southampton. 

Looking at clubs of interest here at BFS. 

Newcastle 

Carroll exceeds his goal total from 2020 in one strike

Yeah, they only got two points and looked awful in the draw against Fulham.  Realistically though, one point was all we could really expect so the 0-0 draw with Liverpool was a bonus.  Also, some credit that they kept Man City at 0-2 and had Leicester scrambling at the finish of that 1-2 result.  I probably gave them a little extra credit for being hit so hard by the virus.

Aston Villa 

Again, some will argue too generous - they didn't get that many more than they expected.  Except, they did get more than expected, beat who they should have beaten (West Brom and Crystal Palace), grabbed a draw from Chelsea and played Man United tough.  That's a better than average run.  Dennis was pleased, especially with the Man United effort, one of the better entertainment values of Matchweek 17.

Tottenham 

Arguably went in with a chance for 12 points.  Lost to Leicester and drew with Wolves.  Fulham match was postponed due to covid-19.  Rescued something with a solid 3-0 win over Leeds.  Still in fourth but lost ground on Liverpool, Man United and Leicester City plus Man City, Everton and Southampton caught them in the table. We didn't have to talk Michael B off the ledge but he wasn't happy.

Man United 

Might have gone with an extra half in other years as the only dropped points were a draw with Leicester.  Hard fought wins over Wolves and Aston Villa were not sure things.  They end the period second in the table.  Jeff H had plenty to cheer about.

Other teams of note.

Chelsea 

Not much went right for the Blues.  This might be a bit harsh but they were beaten by Arsenal and drew with Aston Villa before the 1-3 loss to Man City that was actually worse than it sounds.  Frank Lampard moved ahead of Sheffield United's Chris Wilder - who didn't exactly have the best Christmas either - in the EPL Sack Race.

Man City 

They took all points on offer, beating two quality sides (Southampton and Chelsea) in the process.  Would have been interesting to see the match with Everton, which was postponed due to covid-19.  Really disgusted to see a team ravaged by injuries and the virus still able to bring Aguero and Mahrez off the bench.  

Liverpool  

After thrashing Crystal Palace, the Reds dropped points in the next three matches, drawing with West Brom and Newcastle and losing to Southampton.  Five points given that schedule just isn't going to cut it.  Using Newcastle as a benchmark we conclude that Liverpool is not as good as either Man City or Leicester.  In the period of festive fixtures, the Magpies lost to City 0-2 and Leicester City 1-2 but drew 0-0 with Liverpool.

Arsenal  

Boom Xhaka Laca.  Or was it Boom Saka Laca?  Whichever.  Granit Xhaka, Bukayo Saka and Alexandre Lacazette went on a scoring tear to fuel three straight wins.  After losing to Everton, we wondered if Mikel Arteta would make it through the 17 days of Christmas.  With the consecutive wins over Chelsea, Brighton and West Brom, he looks out of danger for the moment.  

Nobody got shut out completely in the festive period but West Brom and Sheffield United only earned one each.  Wolves, Fulham and Newcastle weren't much better with two each.  Fulham can be excused since they only played two matches while Newcastle and Wolves had a tough schedule.  Best game of the weekend might have been the 3-3 draw between Wolves and Brighton.  I watched Wolves rally from 0-1 to take a 3-1 lead at halftime, then had to run some errands.  Came back and it was 3-3.  

Hopefully He Won't Walk Alone

Is there a song more associated with a football team than Gerry and the Pacemakers "You'll Never Walk Alone?"  Gerry Marsden passed away last weekend at 78.  As discussed in more detail here, the band was one of the bigger successes of the Merseybeat era, a reference to music coming from Liverpool in the 1960s.  

I Was For It Before I Was Against It

Sam Allardyce made no secret of his support for Brexit.  Now he's complaining about the inability to sign non-English players.  Details here.  Not feeling real sympathetic right now.

FA Cup Plus Midweek Fixtures

Mixed thoughts about this weekend's Third Round FA Cup fixtures, given how badly the virus has hit the lower tiers of English football.  One match has already been postponed.  Several teams, including Aston Villa will play without many first-team members.  This article outlines the issues well.  Of course, as noted in the article, maybe we're ignoring the larger question:

If you were to extend that logic, you could of course talk yourself into the argument that no football at all needs to take place, but this situation feels beyond even that precisely because of the unnecessary mix of clubs and situations.

But, if you're focused on saving the larger season, isn't this an absolutely unnecessary risk?  Never that enthusiastic about the competition in the first place, not even sure I'll tune in.  I say that now but we'll see.

Speaking of the larger season, if covid doesn't intervene any further, Matchweek 18 will play out over this Tuesday-Thursday and next Tuesday-Thursday.  In addition, the league will squeeze in the unplayed matches from Week 1 - Burnley vs Man United (1/12) and Man City vs Aston Villa (1/20).  Don't see TV coverage identified on the EPL web site yet.  

Newcastle will play Sheffield United on Tuesday at 1 pm in a match that could very well define the remainder of the season for the Magpies.  Lose and they clearly identify themselves as relegation-worthy.  Win and maybe the question remains unanswered.  Distressingly, 538 has Sheffield United as slight favorites (39/31/30); I could easily see this as a draw. 

Aston Villa hosting Spurs at 3:15 on Wednesday looks like the best of the bunch.  We'd be watching that one anyway but it's a stern test for both sides ambitions for this year.  BTW, Dennis's worst fear for this season is that Aston Villa do just well enough to qualify for Europa League.  He even asked if a team is allowed to refuse a spot.

I must admit that right now blogging is tough given the events in DC, the covid issues here and the question of whether they should even be playing football right now given the situation in England.  It does provide a distraction and hopefully I'll be back next week.

Once-Upon-A-Tyne

Schar gets a foot in to save the day

A late Christmas present from Newcastle as they grab an unlikely 0-0 from Liverpool.  Expectations
here were for an outing similar to Saturday's 0-2 loss to Man City (see below).  Indeed, the Magpies came out in the 5-4-1 formation that screams "we're parking the bus."  However, from the opening, Newcastle did manage to generate some decent counterattacks.  In all, a much more positive feel.  Except later on, there was that old sinking feeling that we were running out of gas and this was going to end 0-1 or 0-2.  And it would have if not for the heroics of Karl Darlow and Fabian Schar.  Darlow added four more to his league leading save total; several are on display in this game highlight package (also this week's YouTubeableMoments) which shows mostly saves by the two keepers.  Schar's extended leg (photo right) was the only thing keeping Mane' from tapping in the likely game winner.  Yeah, Darlow might have committed a foul there. 

The effort was probably more important than the point.  Still dealing with injuries and covid side effects, they earned a draw against the league leaders.  If they play like this against lesser lights, they should be fine.  Some interesting decisions coming up for Bruce.  Dubravka is healthy and ready for selection; does Bruce restore him to this starting role or continue with the hot keeper? I tend to be in the camp of when a starter is healthy again, he gets his position back; keeper is one position where I might go against that rule.  DeAndre Yedlin was pretty much set to be gone in the January transfer window but has made the most of the chances he's been given.  All in all, things may not be so bad Tyneside as I feared.

 

Boxing Day

Beer was flowing by 11:10 am at 6911

Got off to a great start with the 2-2 back-and-forth draw between Leicester and Man United, with both scoring late.  Onto a strange 3-0 win for Aston Villa over Crystal Palace.  Villa grabbed an early goal and were looking pretty good until Mings got goaded into two quick yellows from the infernally annoying Wilfried Zaha.  That slowed Aston Villa not a wit and they added shorthanded goals at 66 and 76 minutes.  Our transitive property calculation had forecast a 14-2 win and that well might have been the score with a full strength squad.  The really good news is that because of this match, we did not have to watch what reads like a less than scintillating 0-0 draw between Fulham and Southampton.  Expected goals were .9 to .35; I guess the Saints really do miss Danny Ings.

Steve: Open a beer, Aston Villa score

Dennis: That leads to alcoholism

Next was Mikel Arteta's possible swan song with Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  The Gunners reacted well to the pressure and put a 3-1 hurting on the Blues.  Though the visitors had plenty of chances, somehow this seemed like a blowout, with Chelsea only getting a consolation goal late.  With an easier set of fixtures on the horizon, this is probably enough to get Arteta through January.

Saving the worst for last, we then tuned in for Newcastle at Man City.  Interesting pre-match news that Jesus had been stricken with covid-19, proving again how pervasive this virus is.  The Magpies plan to bunker in got derailed when Gundogan scored a mere 14 minutes in.  Still, the lads did play good defense and didn't surrender a second until 55 minutes.  Of course, at that point the match was over and with sleet falling the best thing would have been for the 4th official to signal that there would be negative 30 minutes of stoppage time.  That would have been a great holiday gift to everyone.  Is there any better indication of how bad things are that an 0-2 loss at home feels like a draw?

Your alternative to the Newcastle nonsense would have been to switch over to Peacock to watch Sheffield United cough up points after the 80th minute again.  Sigurdsson's goal gave Everton a 1-0 win and, for the moment, second in the table.  Chris Wilder's position keeps getting more tenuous.

Except for struggling through a Newcastle match in which it was clear they had no chance, the Boxing Day viewing on balance was first rate.

A bad omen for West Ham? Moyes casts a wary eye

Sunday's fixtures didn't offer much hope for interesting contests but ended up being entertaining.  I only saw the end of Leeds 1-0 win over Burnley that looked tense if not filled with goals.  West Ham - Brighton featured the Hammers twice rallying from a goal down to get a 2-2 draw.  Liverpool never got untracked and coughed up a late goal at home for a 1-1 draw versus West Brom.  Is Sam Allardyce going to burnish his reputation - detailed here - as a relegation fighter?  The weekend finished with another 1-1 draw, this time a highly entertaining contest between Spurs and Wolves, though Tottenham supporters probably see it as two more points lost.

Forever Afternoon (Tuesday?) (apologies to the Moody Blues)

A treat for fans but a major pain for the players was the mid-week matchweek 16.  Some played with just one day rest.  Monday was excellent with  two more 1-1 draws.  Palace caused Leicester all kinds of headaches but Harvey Barnes rescued a point for the Foxes with an 83rd minute goal.  Aston Villa did the same to Chelsea. Suddenly a prolific goal scorer, Anwar El Ghazi got a second half tally to earn the Villan a 1-1 draw.  The Blues have just 4 points in last five matches.  Aston Villa, on two days rest, missing Mings with red card suspension, looked solid.  Could they be top six material this year?

There were four contests at 1 pm on Tuesday.  None involved any of the top eight teams.  Five of the six clubs below Newcastle (at least going into the matches) in the table were in action.  Hard to complain about having a choice of four different matches on a Tuesday afternoon but this did not look like an appetizing menu.  In fact, it was not.  Five teams failed to score a goal.  There was a 0-0 draw (Southampton - West Ham) and a 5-0 blowout (Leeds over West Brom, definitely not burnishing Big Sam's credentials as a relegation fighter).  Dennis went with the Burnley - Sheffield United match that ended 1-0 in favor of the Clarets,  adding to Chris Wilder's misery.  He's still on the job as we speak but has the highest odds of being the next to go.  I went the easy route with the Brighton - Arsenal match on NBCSN.  Not much to talk about there either.  Lacazette scored the match's only goal 29 seconds after entering the contest.  Some praise was heard for Arteta's decision to put him in but Dennis asks how much credit can you give a manager for bringing on the team's leading scorer in a scoreless match?  Kind of obvious n'est-ce pas?

Tuesday afternoon was not a total loss as Man United and Wolves were evenly matched in the 3 pm contest that was settled with a stoppage time goal from Marcus Rashford.

Wednesday ended up being an abbreviated schedule with just the Liverpool Newcastle contest discussed above.  That was due to postponement of the Fulham - Tottenham match due to covid issues at Fulham.  That was the second post- Christmas match lost to the virus - Monday's Everton Man City fixture had to be rescheduled.  There were 18 positive tests last week, the highest of the season.  The lower leagues are really struggling with the virus as nearly 50 matches had to be postponed in the last week.  Rumors of a two-week break after the FA Cup weekend (1/8-11) briefly surfaced but were quickly dispelled by league officials.  With all the problems in the lower tiers, one wonders if that will actually (or even should) happen.

The Continuing Saga of VAR

1) A developing trend I'm noticing is a reluctance to overturn calls on the field unless it's a clear mistake.  This leads to a the next point, namely that:

2) The goal of VAR is not "to get the call right" but to eliminate egregious errors.  I saw several examples this weekend of calls that looked wrong to me that weren't overturned because it wasn't a clear and obvious error by the referee.  I am fine with that.

3) During last week's Carabao League Cup matches, I saw several incidents where the first instinct of the players and coaches was that VAR would correct the referee's mistake.  Except they don't use VAR in the League Cup.  Everybody hates VAR until it's not around.

You Didn't Ask But We Researched It Anyway

After last week's research on Steve Bruce, Sam Allardyce and David Moyes, I came up with the question:

How many managers have had:

- at least 10 gigs

- at least one in the Premier League  but not with a top six club (Liverpool, Chelsea, Man United, Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham)

- never managed a national team

For the purposes of this count, we are excluding caretaker roles.  So far, Jeff H and I have identified three - Steve Bruce, Tony Pulis and Neal Warnock.  Tested and rejected include Mark Hughes, Alan Pardew, Harry Redknapp (Tottenham but also Jordan!) Nigel Pearson, Ron Koeman, Claude Puel, Roy Hodgson (Liverpool plus England), Paul Lambert (only 9 gigs), Claudio Ranieri (Chelsea and Greece) Steve McClaren (England) and Slaven Bilic.  We'll continue to survey the field.

The Home Stretch

Assuming no more matches get postponed by covid, Matchweek 17 will unfold over 1/1-1/4.  Best of the bunch is Chelsea - Man City on Sunday at 11:30 (all games on NBCSN unless otherwise noted).  I read that it is a go despite City's recent covid troubles.  The Cityzens (don't know when they started using the alternative spelling) haven't exactly been overwhelming, with some puzzling draws and narrow wins over lesser opponents; still, they haven't lost since late November.  Chelsea on the other hand, are clearly struggling.  A key contest for both.

We'll look in with great interest at the 3 pm New Year's Day contest between Man United and Aston Villa, two of the more in-form sides right now.  The Red Devils are clear favorites (unbeaten in their last eight, second in the table) but Aston Villa haven't been too troubled by the odds lately.   Mings will be back to bolster the defense.  Big test, but almost a no lose situation for Aston Villa.  The other New Year's Day clash (12:30) is Everton - West Ham.  The Toffees will be favored at home.

Newcastle face what on paper is another unwinnable fixture versus Leicester on Sunday at 9:15.  Probably will have to bunker in a bit for that one too.  Hayden is out with a suspension due to accumulated yellow cards.  Fortunately Shelvey should be ready so we might see him paired with Matty Longstaff in the defensive midfield.  

For those looking for an EPL Sack race match up, Saturday's 10 am Crystal Palace vs Sheffield United will do well.  Eagles' Roy Hodgson has seen his odds rise to third highest, behind only Arteta and Chris Wilder.  Sitting on just two points through 16 matches, you wonder if Wilder survives a loss here.  Mikel Arteta, in contrast, may see continued improvement if the Gunners can take care of West Brom Saturday ( 2pm on Peacock).  

Spurs better have their guard up against Leeds (Saturday 7:30). Only Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea have scored more.  The good news is that only West Brom have conceded more.  Will be interesting to see if Mourinho loosen the reins at all for this one.  Given Leeds scoring prowess, probably not.

Rounding out the schedule, we have Brighton - Wolves as the Saturday 12:30 feature fixture on NBC (could be surprisingly competitive), Burnley - Fulham (maybe) Sunday at 7 am (you don't need a note from your doctor to skip this one) and Southampton - Liverpool Monday at 3 pm.

We'll be back next week with the BFS exclusive Santa ratings for the 40 38 (37?) holiday fixture period.