The Seventeen Days of Christmas

Southampton's 1-0 upset of Liverpool Monday afternoon ended the 17-day, 40 39 38 37game holiday period.  Let's assess the damage.

First, the scoring system.

   A Christmas Story - You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time; yes the Bumpuses hounds ate the turkey but you had Chinese duck instead.

            It's A Wonderful Life - things turned out pretty well

                        Love Actually - not everybody gets everything they wanted

                                     How the Grinch Stole Christmas - except this time his heart didn't grow 10 sizes that day and he did not return the presents or the roast beast

                                                Die Hard - Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas than you

This year we're not doing half Santa's.  Too wishy washy.  Also, I can't find the half Santa icon.

Now the data.

The 538 Expected is based on their win/lose/draw percentages; the SF Expected is me forcing those percentages into whole wins and draws.  The Percent columns tell us what percent of points the clubs actually garnered compared to available, 538 Expected and SF Expected.  We do these "degree of difficulty" adjustments because if you had to play Man City, Liverpool and Leicester City your chances of getting nine points is considerably less than if you played, say, West Brom, Newcastle, and Southampton. 

Looking at clubs of interest here at BFS. 

Newcastle 

Carroll exceeds his goal total from 2020 in one strike

Yeah, they only got two points and looked awful in the draw against Fulham.  Realistically though, one point was all we could really expect so the 0-0 draw with Liverpool was a bonus.  Also, some credit that they kept Man City at 0-2 and had Leicester scrambling at the finish of that 1-2 result.  I probably gave them a little extra credit for being hit so hard by the virus.

Aston Villa 

Again, some will argue too generous - they didn't get that many more than they expected.  Except, they did get more than expected, beat who they should have beaten (West Brom and Crystal Palace), grabbed a draw from Chelsea and played Man United tough.  That's a better than average run.  Dennis was pleased, especially with the Man United effort, one of the better entertainment values of Matchweek 17.

Tottenham 

Arguably went in with a chance for 12 points.  Lost to Leicester and drew with Wolves.  Fulham match was postponed due to covid-19.  Rescued something with a solid 3-0 win over Leeds.  Still in fourth but lost ground on Liverpool, Man United and Leicester City plus Man City, Everton and Southampton caught them in the table. We didn't have to talk Michael B off the ledge but he wasn't happy.

Man United 

Might have gone with an extra half in other years as the only dropped points were a draw with Leicester.  Hard fought wins over Wolves and Aston Villa were not sure things.  They end the period second in the table.  Jeff H had plenty to cheer about.

Other teams of note.

Chelsea 

Not much went right for the Blues.  This might be a bit harsh but they were beaten by Arsenal and drew with Aston Villa before the 1-3 loss to Man City that was actually worse than it sounds.  Frank Lampard moved ahead of Sheffield United's Chris Wilder - who didn't exactly have the best Christmas either - in the EPL Sack Race.

Man City 

They took all points on offer, beating two quality sides (Southampton and Chelsea) in the process.  Would have been interesting to see the match with Everton, which was postponed due to covid-19.  Really disgusted to see a team ravaged by injuries and the virus still able to bring Aguero and Mahrez off the bench.  

Liverpool  

After thrashing Crystal Palace, the Reds dropped points in the next three matches, drawing with West Brom and Newcastle and losing to Southampton.  Five points given that schedule just isn't going to cut it.  Using Newcastle as a benchmark we conclude that Liverpool is not as good as either Man City or Leicester.  In the period of festive fixtures, the Magpies lost to City 0-2 and Leicester City 1-2 but drew 0-0 with Liverpool.

Arsenal  

Boom Xhaka Laca.  Or was it Boom Saka Laca?  Whichever.  Granit Xhaka, Bukayo Saka and Alexandre Lacazette went on a scoring tear to fuel three straight wins.  After losing to Everton, we wondered if Mikel Arteta would make it through the 17 days of Christmas.  With the consecutive wins over Chelsea, Brighton and West Brom, he looks out of danger for the moment.  

Nobody got shut out completely in the festive period but West Brom and Sheffield United only earned one each.  Wolves, Fulham and Newcastle weren't much better with two each.  Fulham can be excused since they only played two matches while Newcastle and Wolves had a tough schedule.  Best game of the weekend might have been the 3-3 draw between Wolves and Brighton.  I watched Wolves rally from 0-1 to take a 3-1 lead at halftime, then had to run some errands.  Came back and it was 3-3.  

Hopefully He Won't Walk Alone

Is there a song more associated with a football team than Gerry and the Pacemakers "You'll Never Walk Alone?"  Gerry Marsden passed away last weekend at 78.  As discussed in more detail here, the band was one of the bigger successes of the Merseybeat era, a reference to music coming from Liverpool in the 1960s.  

I Was For It Before I Was Against It

Sam Allardyce made no secret of his support for Brexit.  Now he's complaining about the inability to sign non-English players.  Details here.  Not feeling real sympathetic right now.

FA Cup Plus Midweek Fixtures

Mixed thoughts about this weekend's Third Round FA Cup fixtures, given how badly the virus has hit the lower tiers of English football.  One match has already been postponed.  Several teams, including Aston Villa will play without many first-team members.  This article outlines the issues well.  Of course, as noted in the article, maybe we're ignoring the larger question:

If you were to extend that logic, you could of course talk yourself into the argument that no football at all needs to take place, but this situation feels beyond even that precisely because of the unnecessary mix of clubs and situations.

But, if you're focused on saving the larger season, isn't this an absolutely unnecessary risk?  Never that enthusiastic about the competition in the first place, not even sure I'll tune in.  I say that now but we'll see.

Speaking of the larger season, if covid doesn't intervene any further, Matchweek 18 will play out over this Tuesday-Thursday and next Tuesday-Thursday.  In addition, the league will squeeze in the unplayed matches from Week 1 - Burnley vs Man United (1/12) and Man City vs Aston Villa (1/20).  Don't see TV coverage identified on the EPL web site yet.  

Newcastle will play Sheffield United on Tuesday at 1 pm in a match that could very well define the remainder of the season for the Magpies.  Lose and they clearly identify themselves as relegation-worthy.  Win and maybe the question remains unanswered.  Distressingly, 538 has Sheffield United as slight favorites (39/31/30); I could easily see this as a draw. 

Aston Villa hosting Spurs at 3:15 on Wednesday looks like the best of the bunch.  We'd be watching that one anyway but it's a stern test for both sides ambitions for this year.  BTW, Dennis's worst fear for this season is that Aston Villa do just well enough to qualify for Europa League.  He even asked if a team is allowed to refuse a spot.

I must admit that right now blogging is tough given the events in DC, the covid issues here and the question of whether they should even be playing football right now given the situation in England.  It does provide a distraction and hopefully I'll be back next week.