Pre-Relegation

Test results came back from the lab on Tuesday afternoon and Newcastle have been diagnosed as Pre-relegation.  Like pre-hypertensive or pre-diabetic, this is a condition in which your current numbers say you're not in immediate danger but if you're not careful, you could be.  

Warning signs were there even before the match started.  Facing Sheffield United, a team with the fewest goals scored, second most allowed and no wins, Steve Bruce decided to go with a 5-4-1 lineup that featured just two players who could be said to have any attacking skills - Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser.  He put Sean Longstaff in a False No. 10 role.  Definitions vary but it is clearly supposed to be a playmaking/attacking role.  Except Longstaff - who is excellent as a defensive midfielder- is about as suited to this part as I am to playing Macbeth in anything more than a grade school production. A false, False No. 10 if you will. Not surprisingly, Sheffield had the upper hand for the most of the first half.  Darlow again kept the Magpies in the match.  

The beginning of the end - Fraser is sent off

Things went further south went Ryan Fraser committed two reckless challenges in the closing five minutes of the first half and got himself sent off, leaving a 0-0 draw as Newcastle's only chance for getting a result.  Somewhat to their credit, they nearly pulled it off.  But a handling call on Fernandez at 73 minutes and Billy Sharp's subsequent conversion of the PK meant the seal was broken and any chance of a result gone.  Personally I thought the call was soft.  The announcers were convinced it was a good call but Dennis, either humoring or agreeing with me, thought they were "confidently incorrect."  You can see the incident here (forward to about 8:29).  I think Madley had at least two reasons to ignore the handling; Sharp was pushing Fernandez and the contact with the hand looked totally random to me. 

Too much attention to the call draws attention away from the fact that this is a team fully capable of being relegated.  They were in trouble even before Fraser got sent off.  Their only game plan these days is to play for a 0-0 draw.   While a heroic approach against the likes of Liverpool, it's a shocking strategy against teams of Sheffield United's stature.  Yes, covid-19 was a disruptive event; Allan Saint-Maximin isn't even training yet.  This is what transfer windows are for - to make the necessary adjustments.  Only 17 shopping days left.

More Medical News

Aston Villa test results from the lab revealed a different problem - at least 10 players diagnosed with covid-19.  They went ahead with their weekend FA Cup match with Liverpool, using their U-23 squad in a 1-4 defeat.  Dennis does not seem heartbroken with the early exit.  Wednesday's match with Spurs was postponed as is Sunday's match with Everton.  As of Sunday, the Villans will have four games in hand.  Two have already been rescheduled.  Matchweek 1's contest with Man City will be next Wednesday (1/20) and the much-anticipated BFS Derby with Newcastle will be Saturday 1/23.

The league testing numbers for 1/4-1/10 saw 36 positive tests, the highest since they started.  The key question I guess is whether it keeps rising from here.

Non-Medical Results

Competitive matches across the board for the other mid-week contests provided interesting viewing.  Everton are getting healthy again (Digne and James are back) and the Toffees were a little much for Wolves in their 2-1 win.  The Manchester sides squeaked out 1-0 wins against lower table opponents.  United were likely very happy to leave Turf Moor with their 1-0 win over Burnley on the strength of Pogba's awesome volley - this week's YouTubeableMoment.  City could only manage a first half goal from Phil Foden in vanquishing Brighton.  

But 1-0 is better than 1-1, which was all Tottenham could get at home versus Fulham.  This looked a bit like a replay of the Wolves draw in which Spurs closed up shop too early.  We suspect some unrest among the fans in North London.  Also, we don't need relegation candidates picking up points where they shouldn't be.  Recall that this was a substitute fixture for Spurs- Aston Villa.  After finding out on Monday morning that they would have to play Tottenham on Wednesday evening, Fulham manager Scott Parker called the late notice rescheduling "unfair and wrong" and "scandalous."  Mourinho essentially told him to "man up."  

Also in the somewhat not helpful category is Arsenal's 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace.  Sure, it continues the Gunners' unbeaten streak but 1) that's a match they should be winning and 2) it wasn't like they dominated and were unlucky.  Not sure we can even consider Palace a relegation rival at this point but they are starting to slowly pull away from Newcastle.

FA Cup

I did sample some of the matches, mostly looking to find any of my Football Manager Forest Green players.  Didn't see anyone from current roster but a couple from last year's squad saw action.  Antoine Semenyo (loanee on last year's squad) played for Bristol City in their 2-1 win over Portsmouth and Farrend Rawson was at center defender for Mansfield Town in their 1-2 loss to Cheltenham.   Though I didn't get to see him, current squad member Grant Ward did appear for Blackpool in their upset of West Brom.   

Rossett Park - The Water Tower but with grass

This year's award for Venue Most Reminiscent of the Water Tower goes to Rossett Park, home of Marine AFC of the Northern Premier League in the 8th tier of English football.   Cheap lighting?  Check.  Houses backed right up to the field?  Check.  Better sod though.

Newcastle made an early exit, falling to Arsenal in extra time.  Like Dennis, I am not heartbroken with the result.  Aside from Villa and Newcastle, other top tier casualties include Crystal Palace (to Wolves), West Brom (to Blackpool) and Leeds (to Crawley Town).  At least Newcastle, Villa and Palace fell to Premier League opponents.  We note that the FA Cup's quaint tradition of not seeding teams has resulted in a fourth round match up between Man United and Liverpool.  

Sterling Moments

For some reason, Dennis and I cannot help but rag on Raheem Sterling.  Probably something to do with the nature of the contract dispute that led to his exit from Liverpool.  Anyway, we collect and rank his gaffes, like missing a wide open shot, getting stripped of the ball while trying to beat three defenders at once, etc.   On Wednesday, after his failure to convert the PK that would have put the match out of reach, we texted each other within seconds:

Steve: Number 2 all time? Sterling skies the PK well over the bar.

Dennis: "Sterling skies PK." Have we ranked that one yet?

Number 1 remains "No PK awarded and Sterling is booked for simulation."

Always Something On

A full weekend plus matches Monday thru Thursday.  Biggest of the bunch is clearly Liverpool - Man United Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock (really?).  Nothing like 1 v 2.  Liverpool are favored despite the recent drop in form.  Just hoping for a good one here.

Another fixture worth looking in on is Leicester v Southampton at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock.  Bigger test for Southampton there but still should be a good one.  

Newcastle get to travel to their special Little Shop of Horrors - the Emirates - for a Monday afternoon clash with Arsenal.  That always ends well for the Magpies.  Including the recent FA Cup loss, I count nine straight losses there, the last five being shutouts.  

Saturday's 12:30 "feature" match on NBC is Fulham - Chelsea; certainly not a big Blues fan but hoping they take care of business against a clear relegation rival.  More sympathetic to Spurs to begin with and are fully behind them as they take on Sheffield United on Sunday morning ( 9 am NBCSN).  A little more indifferent about Man City - Crystal Palace (2:15 on Sunday on Peacock) - no love loss for the Cityzens and do have a soft spot for the Eagles, even if they might be a key Newcastle competitor.  Yikes, at 538 they have the percentages at 90/1/9 for that one - on any given Sunday blah, blah, blah.

Since we're now on full-time relegation watch, we'll also likely check in on Wolves - West Brom even with the 7:30 Saturday am start time.  I'll have a dilemma at 10 am choosing between Leeds - Brighton (NBCSN) or West Ham - Burnley (Peacock).  I'm guessing the former will be the more interesting, attractive contest to watch; the forecast at 538 suggests it should be very close (38/37/25 in very slight favor of Leeds).

There are five weekday matches to look in on.  Leicester - Chelsea Tuesday at 3:15 (NBCSN) is easily the best of the lot.  This is a big chance for the Foxes to establish their top four credentials; conversely, Frank Lampard's odds are soaring in the Sack Race and he really needs a statement result.  We'll certainly tune in for Man City  - Aston Villa (Wednesday 1 pm NBCSN), though definitely with low expectations. Our relegation-based scoreboard watching will continue with West Ham - West Brom (Tuesday at 1 pm on Peacock), Fulham - Man United (Wednesday at 3:15 on NBCSN) and Liverpool - Burnley (3 pm Thursday on NBCSN).  You can guess our allegiances in each of those.

Biggest news of the week may be the announcement of the test results.  Another jump in the positive results might be a sign we're headed for a pause or worse.  It's not like I don't have other things to occupy my time but still would prefer the season continues.