Who's In Charge Here?

Another two match weeks where you really couldn't depend on things going according to plan.  I count six decent upsets (losing team was favored by at least 10% at 538) and another two that qualify as minor upsets.   Biggest among them is Liverpool failing to score at home in a 0-1 defeat to Brighton.  The top ten teams dropped almost as many points as the bottom half (28 vs 34).  The four teams who won both their matches included Man City and Chelsea but also Crystal Palace and Brighton.  Teams dropping five or six points included Burnley, Fulham and West Brom but also Southampton, Arsenal and Tottenham.  Out of respect for Michael B, we will not say any more about Spurs' week.

Man City have won seven straight and are undefeated in their last 13.  They lead by three points with a game in hand.  Man United looked happy enough to stumble through a 0-0 draw with Arsenal then produced a unique result vs Southampton in which their goals scored matched the number of Saints on the field at match end - nine.  They are second in the table.  Leicester and Liverpool round out the top four.  At the bottom,  Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield did much to solidify their relegation chances but Burnley and Newcastle refuse to go away.

Almost forgot about this week's YouTubeableMoment.  As much as I'd like to take something from the Newcastle win, this counterattacking goal from Liverpool is too good to pass up.  So many good pieces and all of them necessary for the goal to happen.  But really, how does Salah get that ball under control so easily?

Newcastle Get Bonus Points But It Doesn't Feel That Way

To be honest, I had the Magpies down for just one point out of the two matches, thinking they'd lose to Everton and draw with Crystal Palace.  But of course, after their solid and deserved 2-0 win over the Toffees, I started thinking about four or even six points.  And after Newcastle took an early lead against Palace, my hopes got way ahead of me.  The 1-2 loss feels like we gave away the bonus points earned at Everton.

Wilson's brace at Goodison Park was the difference

Against Everton, the Magpies seemed in the match pretty much from the start.  This was not the
bunkered in side we've come to expect when they are road underdogs.  The 4-3-1-2 did the job defensively but also provided enough attacking to keep them in the match.  When Callum Wilson's header found the back of the net at 73 minutes, the possibility of taking home some points became very real.  He added a goal in stoppage time to seal the deal.  Though they again lost the possession battle, most of the other stats say this was a deserved win.  

Jonjo Shelvey got Newcastle off to a great start with a finish from the top of the box two minutes in against Crystal Palace.  I jokingly texted to Dennis that we scored too soon.  Hah, joke's on me.  Two goals in the space of five minutes found the Magpies behind by the 25th minute.  And there they would stay.  This one was particularly frustrating as Newcastle dominated in every category, including possession, but would never find the equalizer.  By game's end, I had completely forgotten how the original expectation for the week was a single point.  

Aston Villa Get Bonus Points and It Feels That Way

I predict strikers will soon be going sleeveless

Fairly well dominated by Southampton, Villa managed to steal a 1-0 win from the Saints. The goal was decent enough - a Barkley header off a Grealish cross - but the stats reveal a one-sided affair.  Possession was 60/40, shots 20/8, corners 7/1 and expected goals 2.35-.75.  Keeper Emiliano Martinez was the difference here as he made some incredible stops, including one in stoppage time.  Oh yeah, Southampton had a goal in the closing seconds overruled by VAR for offside.    As you can see from the picture, if Ings wore his sleeves any shorter or Matty Cash had a bigger butt, this match would have been tied.  Speaking of Cash, he dodged a handling call in the first half, likely only because the ball may have bounced off his leg first.  

Comments about Aston Villa's mid-week 1-3 loss to West Ham are better left unsaid.  They looked like a side that isn't very deep that's played a lot of matches recently and we'll leave it at that.  Well, and maybe add that after an awesome year so far, Martinez did let in some softer goals in this one.  And what the hell is Jesse Lingard doing a) in a West Ham kit and b) scoring two goals against Aston Villa?  That loan paid dividends quickly.  Okay, now we can leave it at that.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Villa were in financial difficulty?

Steve: No, I said Cash nearly caused them some problems

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  The hashtag label Palace-Wolves is perfect for that whiny Zaha

Steve: How so?

Dennis: #CRYWOL(F)

But She Was Right

Karen Carney makes NBC debut

NBC/Peacock finally put a woman commentator in the booth for the Crystal Palace - Wolves match.  Karen Carney played for the English WNT and has been doing some broadcasting work for BT and Amazon Prime.  Dennis and I give her high marks.  Her points were mostly spot on and I thought her delivery was good too.  

So of course some people have an issue with her.  Prior to the Leeds - West Brom match she made an observation about Leeds (we'll discuss exactly what she said in a minute) that did not sit well with the club and some its players.  So the club and a few players tweeted their displeasure in a somewhat mocking tone.  Well, as we know from things on this side of the pond, once leadership signals it's okay, the criticism turns abusive.  She has the added benefit of being a woman so much of the abuse was sexist.  You can read the details here.

So what did she say about Leeds?  Carney observed: 

“I actually think they got promoted [last season] because of Covid, in terms of it gave them a bit of respite.” 

So does Leeds have a history of collapsing in the second half of the season?  Easy enough to check.  

Holy lactic acid Batman.  They did have big dropoffs in the previous two seasons and the year they get a long layoff due to the pandemic, they don't have a big collapse.  Yes, I know this is only correlation and not causality but the numbers support her point.  And as to causality, Leeds manager Marcello Biesla does employ high-intensity tactics of the kind that in fact could tire a squad out over a long season, especially in the Championship Division which has more games.  

I'm left appalled at the double standard because there's no way a male commentator gets this abuse, even if he's wrong.  And she wasn't even wrong.  The Leeds response that we won the division by 10 points is irrelevant; with the long layoff, their second half dropoff was 11-16 points less than in previous years.  There's your 10 points right there.  We get so much crap from pundits and commentators that simply isn't supported by the facts and she basically gets this right and still gets abuse for it.  At least I didn't hear her with the crap observation about a two goal lead being the hardest to defend.  Next time someone drops that one on you, tell them "I can only explain it to you. I can't understand it for you." If I sound annoyed, I went through this whole data thing with baseball between 1980-1992 listening to people spout old adages that simply weren't true.  I know sportswriters and pundits hate this sh..tuff because it used to be they could say anything and there was no way to check.

An Easy Week?

Just match week 23 spread over Saturday to Monday and some FA Cup fixtures mid-week.  Big clash of the weekend is Liverpool - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday (NBCSN).  This has to be in the at least "must draw" category for the Reds.  A loss here and they will be 10 points behind City with one more game played.  But they look like two teams heading in opposite directions and you fear for Liverpool in this one.

Dennis and I will know our fates soon enough.  Aston Villa start the weekend with the 7:30 match, hosting Arsenal on NBCSN.  Newcastle will be the TV match at 10 on NBCSN, hosting Southampton.  Surprisingly, both our sides are very slight favorites.  Don't know about Dennis but if Newcastle grab a draw here, I'll be pleased.  Remind me of that next week if I complain.  

Top of the table action includes a pretty good looking match between Man United and Everton at 3 pm on Saturday (NBCSN) and Wolves - Leicester on Sunday at 9 am on NBCSN.  United are probably good in their match but who knows what the Wolves will bring against the Foxes.  Probably should mention Fulham - West Ham (NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday) and Sheffield United - Chelsea (3:15 Sunday on Peacock) since they are just outside the top four; we'll be looking for the favorites to take care of business in those two as we don't need relegation rivals getting any extra points.  Same for Tottenham - West Brom; maybe a match against the Baggies (7 am Sunday on NBCSN) is the ticket for whatever is ailing Spurs (probably the absence of Harry Kane). 

Burnley - Brighton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) was supposed to be a big relegation showdown but the Seagulls are close to being safe.  This forces us to root for them over the Clarets.  The week concludes on Monday with Leeds and Crystal Palace (3 pm NBCSN), a match between two sides in the EPL nether region - the space where neither European football next fall nor relegation is a real possibility any more.

FA Cup 5th Round fixtures cover Tuesday-Thursday.  List of matches is here.  Dennis and I are thrilled that both our sides are out and will get some rest this week.  Interesting, Wolves - Southampton face each other in the FA Cup on Thursday, then again on Sunday in EPL action.  Everton - Tottenham on Wednesday might be the best of the viewing for FA Cup action.  

Looks like more snow on Sunday, ending mid-afternoon.  Convenient as you can watch the matches and shovel later and still meet the Philadelphia city regulations of shoveling your sidewalk within six hours of the snow ending.

"A Catalog of Errors"

A mostly crappy week for BFS sides, Frank Lampard beats Steve Bruce in the sack race and a new interpretation of the offside law. Plus BFS housekeeping tips.

A particularly crappy week for Newcastle, the only side to lose two league matches during the week.  The fact that, other than Aston Villa, the Magpies were the only team to have two league matches is beside the point.  Saturday was the Fillebrown derby between Newcastle and Aston Villa which we watched together via Zoom.  This one would best be described as a "routine win" for Villa.  Goals at 13 and 42 minutes were more than sufficient.  For Newcastle, it was a better quality loss.  They actually had 40% possession and a shot on target.  But a loss nonetheless.  I believe one of the announcers labelled it a "catalog of errors."

Saint-Maximin - the only thing standing between
 Newcastle and relegation?

Right back at it again on Tuesday against Leeds.  Continued improvement yet there they were, down 0-1 at 17 minutes.  The Magpies were much better after the break and when Callum Wilson made the deftest of touches to send Almiron in on goal to level things at 57 minutes, there was even some thought they could grab all three points.  Easy there, Sparky.  A mere four minutes later they were behind again.  The introduction of Allan Saint-Maximin at 64 minutes raised both our spirits and the prospect of an equalizer.  Didn't happen but this was easily the best they played, well, since ASM went down with covid.  The team's performance in that 30 minutes was probably enough to keep Bruce around at least through the weekend.  Especially given how it's clear that the team has been operating without their best offensive weapon for a few months now. 

BFS Sides Fare Poorly in Matchweek 20

We already did the post mortem on Newcastle.  Aston Villa celebrated their big derby win by coughing up the lead twice before eventually falling 2-3 to Burnley.  This is the first time all year that the Villans scored first yet did not win.  Villa had pushed the Clarets all over the place but failed to convert multiple opportunities.  Man United didn't do themselves (or Newcastle for that matter) any favors in a 1-2 defeat to Sheffield United.  Spurs completed the slam with a flat performance against a Liverpool side that had struggled to even put the ball into the net in league matches; the 3-1 win for the Reds looked entirely deserved.

Akinfenwa gives new meaning
 to the term target striker

Consolation to those sides include that Villa got the win over Newcastle, Man United has a stirring 3-2 win over Liverpool in their FA Cup match (best viewing of the week?) and Spurs eased past Championship Division Wycombe in their FA Cup tie.  We'll make the Bruno Fernandes game winning free kick for United this week's  YouTubeableMoment; yeah, that's quality.  The Spurs contest provided us with our annual glimpse of BFS fave Adebayo Akinfenwa, the Charles Barkley of the EFL (see picture right).  In the Man City close call versus Cheltenham, we also got to see current Forest Green loanee Taylor Harwood-Bellis in action for the Cityzens; the fact that he left the match with the score 0-1 and City then scored three goals after his departure should not be taken as a statement on his quality.

There was no consolation for Newcastle, except maybe that ASM is healthy.

Well That Didn't Take Long

Within days of the offside incident in the Man City Aston Villa match (discussed here last week), we had a new interpretation of the offside law.  Guidance to match officials now includes: 

“Where a player in an offside position immediately impacts on an opponent who has deliberately played the ball, the match officials should prioritise challenging an opponent for the ball, and thus the offside offence of ‘interfering with an opponent by impacting on the opponent’s ability to play the ball’ should be penalised.

“However, it is important to remember that where a player in an offside position receives the ball from an opponent who deliberately plays the ball (e.g. a misplaced pass or miskick), including by deliberate handball, the player is not considered to have gained an advantage, unless it was a deliberate save by any opponent.”

This helps in the specific situation we saw but still leaves some other distasteful (at least IMHO)  possibilities.  For example, on a cross into the box, suppose a defender rises up and heads the ball in an attempt to clear it but instead heads it towards the goal to an attacker standing in an offside position, who promptly deposits the ball into the old onion bag.  As I read the new interpretation, that goal would stand.  Oh well, a little progress is still good I guess.

Meet the New Boss (apologies to The Who)

Same as the old boss?  Somewhat surprisingly to me, Frank Lampard got sacked after a 3-1 FA Cup win over Luton Town.  I figured he had at least until the Spurs match next week.  Abramovich just doesn't have that much patience.  His replacement is Thomas Tuchel, a German late of Paris Saint-Germain.  So how'd that go?  A 0-0 draw at home to Wolves is not exactly what they were looking for.  True, many of the stats favor the Blues but expected goals was still less that 1.0 so the performance couldn't have been that great.  

Why Don't They Have Cleaning Shows?

Cable TV is full of cooking shows but what about cleaning?  Nothing.  I offer the following guidance on how to get the house cleaned while still getting in maximum EPL viewing.  Let's assume that it's Saturday and there are four matches - 7:30, 10:00, 12:30 and 3:00 and that they are on NBCSN or NBC so DVR is an option; assume the wash cycle is 45 minutes, dryer cycle is 70 minutes.  The schedule would look something like this:

• 7:30 - Watch first half of early match while eating breakfast
• 8:20-8:35 - Put first load of laundry in at halftime
• 8:35-9:25 - Watch second half
• 9:25-10:00 - Put first load of laundry in dryer and start second load; do breakfast dishes
• 10:00-10:50 - Watch first half of 10:00 game
• 10:50-11:05 -Take first load of laundry out of dryer, put second load in dryer, start third load
• 11:05-11:55 - Watch second half of 10:00 game
• 11:55-12:30 - Clean down stairs bathroom (or vacuum living room) and fold first load of laundry
• 12:30-1:20 - Watch first half of NBC feature match
• 1:20-1:35 - Take second load of laundry out of dryer, put third load in dryer
• 1:35- 2:25 - Watch second half of NBC feature match
• 2:25-3:00 - Clean two upstairs bathrooms (or vacuum kitchen, dining and TV rooms)
• 3:00-3:50 - Watch first half of late afternoon match
• 3:50-4:05 - Take third load of laundry and fold second and third loads of laundry
• 4:05-4:55 - Watch second half 

Of course I kid.  Some weeks there is no vacuuming or bath room cleaning.

No Let Up

Two more match weeks crammed into five days.  We call your attention to Arsenal - Man United, Saturday's NBC feature match at 12:30.  Other good one looks like Chelsea - Tottenham on Thursday at 3 pm.  And surprisingly, West Ham vs Liverpool is 5th vs 4th on Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock.  Liverpool are favored but the Hammers haven't lost in six.  

Newcastle have a tough road match at Everton (7:30 Saturday), then a home match Tuesday with Crystal Palace that offers the hope of maybe a point.  Aston Villa have two difficult tests coming on the heels of the Burnley loss - at Southampton (3 pm Saturday) and home to West Ham (Wednesday 3:15).

West Brom are looking at their best chance to make a move to avoid relegation with matches against Fulham (Saturday 10 on Peacock) and Sheffield United (Tuesday at 1 pm).  Of course their rivals are thinking the same thing.  We can hope that Brighton will not catch Newcastle this week no matter what the Magpies do since the Seagulls have Tottenham on Sunday (2:15 on Peacock) and Liverpool on Wednesday (3:15).  

At the top, Man City is looking at a relatively easy six points in Sheffield United (Saturday at 10 on NBCSN) and Burnley on Wednesday at 1.  Third place Leicester is in almost as good a position with a home match versus Leeds ( Sunday at 9 on Peacock) and on the road at Fulham on Wednesday at 1 pm. In addition to Arsenal, Man United will need to be careful when they host Southampton on Tuesday at 3:15.  Everton could also re-insert themselves into the picture with matches versus Newcastle and Leeds.

Of course, the way the form sheet has been taking a beating this year, maybe none of this will play out as expected.

Too Many Holes in the Dike

After a not awful first half, the wheels fell off and Arsenal coasted to a 3-0 win that was as frustrating as it was expected.  Where to start?  Surprisingly, Bruce went with a more attacking 4-4-2 formation.  Which I don't really have a problem with, except why didn't he do that against Sheffield United, a match where the odds of a result were much higher?  They got pretty much nothing from Joe L. Linton and Almiron; as Dennis notes, it's getting downright scary when Almiron is dribbling in the Newcastle defensive third.  Matty Longstaff got caught sleeping on the second goal.  Shelvey had too few moments of incisive passing and his corner kicks (Newcastle's best only offensive weapon) failed to make it to the box.  Geez, even Karl Darlow made a mistake in this one, though he also had his usual complement of heroic stops.  

Of course the defeat raised the volume on the calls for Bruce's scalp.  To some extent, I can see an issue - the team does not look particularly motivated at this point.  Sure, there are injuries and covid stuff plus the usual lack of talent but he's not getting even close to the best out of what he has.  The next four matches are Villa, Leeds, Everton and Crystal Palace.  Failure to secure some points out of this set of fixtures is probably the end for Bruce.

Speaking of managers on the hot seat, Chelsea's lackluster performance in an 0-2 loss to Leicester actually put Frank Lampard's odds of getting sacked higher than Bruce.  Fortunately for Lampard, his legacy means he probably has some time to recover.  But there are two looming fixtures (home to Wolves next week and Spurs on 2/2 - [Michael B looking for b-day present there]) that may well determine whether he makes it to Valentine's Day. 

Good week for Man City and Leicester as they each grab two victories and now sit 2-3 in the table.  Man United's 0-0 draw with Liverpool (boring, like a heavyweight fight) and win over Fulham have them sitting top of the table.

I Got Your Offside Right Here 

"If the law supposes that," said Mr. Bumble, squeezing his hat emphatically in both hands, "the law is a ass — a idiot. "

Mings best option would have been to let Rodri have the ball

Charles Dickens' Mr. Bumble was not speaking of Law 11 - Offside but he could have been.  Aston Villa and Man City were having a fun, wide-open game of football, even if it was scoreless.  Then, this.  Rodri clearly came from an offside position, stole the ball from Mings which led to Silva's admittedly awesome strike.  But there would be no offside call, and alas, according to the law, there shouldn't have been, as Mings deliberately played the ball.  Though Rodri was in an offside position, you can't say he's doing one of the four things that would be called interfering with opponent:

preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or

challenging an opponent for the ball or

clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or

making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

But how can you say that Rodri's position didn't give him an advantage?  Mings' best play would have been to play the ball in a much safer manner, or even better, let Rodri get to the ball first.  Seems like that creates silly incentives and/or requires some serious on-the-fly calculations by the players.  If Mings had gained clear possession and then lost it to Rodri's tackle, that seems okay.  But for Rodri to benefit from Mings's sloppy attempt to play the ball by being in an offside position doesn't seem right.  If we are to believe Dean Smith he got a red card for first asking the 4th official if they got "juggling balls for Christmas," then responding to Jonathan Moss's statement to him that "he was interpreting the rules" with "well you should have done that earlier in the game."  Seems kind of tame.  Guess you had to be there.

City added a goal in stoppage time after Cash was called (correctly we thought) for handling in the box so the final was 2-0.  Not an awful result for the Villans; they played City tough and had their own chances.  

It Don't Come Easy (apologies to Ringo Starr)

In some cases, it don't come at all.  Other than Arsenal's triumph over Newcastle and Man City's easy 4-0 dismantling of Crystal Palace, the favorites faced some tough sledding against the lesser lights.  For example, Fulham recorded close calls against Chelsea and Man United.  In the Chelsea match they were down a man after 44 minutes but only lost 0-1, the goal coming in the 78th minute.  Against Man United, they took an early lead and it wasn't until Paul Pogba's 65th minute strike that they were finally vanquished.  West Brom came from 1-2 down to surprise Wolves and then caused West Ham all kinds of headaches in a 1-2 defeat there.  Sheffield United had Spurs fans sweating until Ndombele's "did he really do that?" goal salted that match away; we'll make that one this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Brighton beat Leeds 1-0, a disappointment not so much in who won but in that it was such a flat affair.  

But the best of the lot were Burnley.  After a narrow 0-1 loss at West Ham, they ended Liverpool's 428 68-game home unbeaten streak with a 1-0 win fueled by a late PK.  Frankly, I thought the call on Alisson was a bit soft but that's okay because Barnes had been fouled even worse by a Liverpool defender as he entered the box.  Also, Liverpool have not scored in 438 minutes.  Geez, even Newcastle are under 200 minutes. 

 

Another FA Cup Weekend

In surprise move, Bruce announces Newcastle
will go with a back three, with himself as one of the three

Except for the delayed BFS derby between Aston Villa and Newcastle at 3 pm on Saturday (Peacock).  The Villans are deservedly solid favorites.  Dean Smith will be phoning it in from the stands and John McGinn will be serving a suspension for accumulated yellow cards.  I predict that even though Darlow is hardly to blame for the recent troubles, Bruce will go with Dubravka for this one.  

The FA Cup matches are spread over Friday through Tuesday.  I'll probably surf ESPN+ in search of any of my Forest Green players.  Also, Man United vs Liverpool at noon on Sunday might be a better game than their 0-0 draw last Sunday.  

Midweek EPL action continues with a full slate of Matchweek 20 contests.  Best of the bunch is Liverpool-Tottenham at 3 pm on Thursday (NBCSN); important fixture for both as they try to stay relevant to the top four.  Everton - Leicester at 3:15 on Wednesday (Peacock) deserves a look.  Hot seat manager specials are Leeds - Newcastle (Tuesday 1pm on NBCSN) and Chelsea - Wolves (Wednesday 1 pm on Peacock).  Scoreboard-watching relegation candidates will take note of West Brom - Man City (Tuesday 3:15 on NBCSN), Burnley - Aston Villa (Wednesday 1 pm Peacock), Brighton - Fulham (Wednesday 2:30 Peacock) and Man United (Wednesday 3:15 on NBCSN).  I could see making time for the Brighton - Fulham match; quite important to both sides and should be competitive.

I can only hope that the post-holiday inertia for my projects continues as long as midweek football does.

Pre-Relegation

Test results came back from the lab on Tuesday afternoon and Newcastle have been diagnosed as Pre-relegation.  Like pre-hypertensive or pre-diabetic, this is a condition in which your current numbers say you're not in immediate danger but if you're not careful, you could be.  

Warning signs were there even before the match started.  Facing Sheffield United, a team with the fewest goals scored, second most allowed and no wins, Steve Bruce decided to go with a 5-4-1 lineup that featured just two players who could be said to have any attacking skills - Callum Wilson and Ryan Fraser.  He put Sean Longstaff in a False No. 10 role.  Definitions vary but it is clearly supposed to be a playmaking/attacking role.  Except Longstaff - who is excellent as a defensive midfielder- is about as suited to this part as I am to playing Macbeth in anything more than a grade school production. A false, False No. 10 if you will. Not surprisingly, Sheffield had the upper hand for the most of the first half.  Darlow again kept the Magpies in the match.  

The beginning of the end - Fraser is sent off

Things went further south went Ryan Fraser committed two reckless challenges in the closing five minutes of the first half and got himself sent off, leaving a 0-0 draw as Newcastle's only chance for getting a result.  Somewhat to their credit, they nearly pulled it off.  But a handling call on Fernandez at 73 minutes and Billy Sharp's subsequent conversion of the PK meant the seal was broken and any chance of a result gone.  Personally I thought the call was soft.  The announcers were convinced it was a good call but Dennis, either humoring or agreeing with me, thought they were "confidently incorrect."  You can see the incident here (forward to about 8:29).  I think Madley had at least two reasons to ignore the handling; Sharp was pushing Fernandez and the contact with the hand looked totally random to me. 

Too much attention to the call draws attention away from the fact that this is a team fully capable of being relegated.  They were in trouble even before Fraser got sent off.  Their only game plan these days is to play for a 0-0 draw.   While a heroic approach against the likes of Liverpool, it's a shocking strategy against teams of Sheffield United's stature.  Yes, covid-19 was a disruptive event; Allan Saint-Maximin isn't even training yet.  This is what transfer windows are for - to make the necessary adjustments.  Only 17 shopping days left.

More Medical News

Aston Villa test results from the lab revealed a different problem - at least 10 players diagnosed with covid-19.  They went ahead with their weekend FA Cup match with Liverpool, using their U-23 squad in a 1-4 defeat.  Dennis does not seem heartbroken with the early exit.  Wednesday's match with Spurs was postponed as is Sunday's match with Everton.  As of Sunday, the Villans will have four games in hand.  Two have already been rescheduled.  Matchweek 1's contest with Man City will be next Wednesday (1/20) and the much-anticipated BFS Derby with Newcastle will be Saturday 1/23.

The league testing numbers for 1/4-1/10 saw 36 positive tests, the highest since they started.  The key question I guess is whether it keeps rising from here.

Non-Medical Results

Competitive matches across the board for the other mid-week contests provided interesting viewing.  Everton are getting healthy again (Digne and James are back) and the Toffees were a little much for Wolves in their 2-1 win.  The Manchester sides squeaked out 1-0 wins against lower table opponents.  United were likely very happy to leave Turf Moor with their 1-0 win over Burnley on the strength of Pogba's awesome volley - this week's YouTubeableMoment.  City could only manage a first half goal from Phil Foden in vanquishing Brighton.  

But 1-0 is better than 1-1, which was all Tottenham could get at home versus Fulham.  This looked a bit like a replay of the Wolves draw in which Spurs closed up shop too early.  We suspect some unrest among the fans in North London.  Also, we don't need relegation candidates picking up points where they shouldn't be.  Recall that this was a substitute fixture for Spurs- Aston Villa.  After finding out on Monday morning that they would have to play Tottenham on Wednesday evening, Fulham manager Scott Parker called the late notice rescheduling "unfair and wrong" and "scandalous."  Mourinho essentially told him to "man up."  

Also in the somewhat not helpful category is Arsenal's 0-0 home draw with Crystal Palace.  Sure, it continues the Gunners' unbeaten streak but 1) that's a match they should be winning and 2) it wasn't like they dominated and were unlucky.  Not sure we can even consider Palace a relegation rival at this point but they are starting to slowly pull away from Newcastle.

FA Cup

I did sample some of the matches, mostly looking to find any of my Football Manager Forest Green players.  Didn't see anyone from current roster but a couple from last year's squad saw action.  Antoine Semenyo (loanee on last year's squad) played for Bristol City in their 2-1 win over Portsmouth and Farrend Rawson was at center defender for Mansfield Town in their 1-2 loss to Cheltenham.   Though I didn't get to see him, current squad member Grant Ward did appear for Blackpool in their upset of West Brom.   

Rossett Park - The Water Tower but with grass

This year's award for Venue Most Reminiscent of the Water Tower goes to Rossett Park, home of Marine AFC of the Northern Premier League in the 8th tier of English football.   Cheap lighting?  Check.  Houses backed right up to the field?  Check.  Better sod though.

Newcastle made an early exit, falling to Arsenal in extra time.  Like Dennis, I am not heartbroken with the result.  Aside from Villa and Newcastle, other top tier casualties include Crystal Palace (to Wolves), West Brom (to Blackpool) and Leeds (to Crawley Town).  At least Newcastle, Villa and Palace fell to Premier League opponents.  We note that the FA Cup's quaint tradition of not seeding teams has resulted in a fourth round match up between Man United and Liverpool.  

Sterling Moments

For some reason, Dennis and I cannot help but rag on Raheem Sterling.  Probably something to do with the nature of the contract dispute that led to his exit from Liverpool.  Anyway, we collect and rank his gaffes, like missing a wide open shot, getting stripped of the ball while trying to beat three defenders at once, etc.   On Wednesday, after his failure to convert the PK that would have put the match out of reach, we texted each other within seconds:

Steve: Number 2 all time? Sterling skies the PK well over the bar.

Dennis: "Sterling skies PK." Have we ranked that one yet?

Number 1 remains "No PK awarded and Sterling is booked for simulation."

Always Something On

A full weekend plus matches Monday thru Thursday.  Biggest of the bunch is clearly Liverpool - Man United Sunday at 11:30 on Peacock (really?).  Nothing like 1 v 2.  Liverpool are favored despite the recent drop in form.  Just hoping for a good one here.

Another fixture worth looking in on is Leicester v Southampton at 3 pm on Saturday on Peacock.  Bigger test for Southampton there but still should be a good one.  

Newcastle get to travel to their special Little Shop of Horrors - the Emirates - for a Monday afternoon clash with Arsenal.  That always ends well for the Magpies.  Including the recent FA Cup loss, I count nine straight losses there, the last five being shutouts.  

Saturday's 12:30 "feature" match on NBC is Fulham - Chelsea; certainly not a big Blues fan but hoping they take care of business against a clear relegation rival.  More sympathetic to Spurs to begin with and are fully behind them as they take on Sheffield United on Sunday morning ( 9 am NBCSN).  A little more indifferent about Man City - Crystal Palace (2:15 on Sunday on Peacock) - no love loss for the Cityzens and do have a soft spot for the Eagles, even if they might be a key Newcastle competitor.  Yikes, at 538 they have the percentages at 90/1/9 for that one - on any given Sunday blah, blah, blah.

Since we're now on full-time relegation watch, we'll also likely check in on Wolves - West Brom even with the 7:30 Saturday am start time.  I'll have a dilemma at 10 am choosing between Leeds - Brighton (NBCSN) or West Ham - Burnley (Peacock).  I'm guessing the former will be the more interesting, attractive contest to watch; the forecast at 538 suggests it should be very close (38/37/25 in very slight favor of Leeds).

There are five weekday matches to look in on.  Leicester - Chelsea Tuesday at 3:15 (NBCSN) is easily the best of the lot.  This is a big chance for the Foxes to establish their top four credentials; conversely, Frank Lampard's odds are soaring in the Sack Race and he really needs a statement result.  We'll certainly tune in for Man City  - Aston Villa (Wednesday 1 pm NBCSN), though definitely with low expectations. Our relegation-based scoreboard watching will continue with West Ham - West Brom (Tuesday at 1 pm on Peacock), Fulham - Man United (Wednesday at 3:15 on NBCSN) and Liverpool - Burnley (3 pm Thursday on NBCSN).  You can guess our allegiances in each of those.

Biggest news of the week may be the announcement of the test results.  Another jump in the positive results might be a sign we're headed for a pause or worse.  It's not like I don't have other things to occupy my time but still would prefer the season continues.

The Seventeen Days of Christmas

Southampton's 1-0 upset of Liverpool Monday afternoon ended the 17-day, 40 39 38 37game holiday period.  Let's assess the damage.

First, the scoring system.

   A Christmas Story - You got a Red Ryder carbine-action, two hundred shot Range Model air rifle with a compass in the stock and this thing which tells time; yes the Bumpuses hounds ate the turkey but you had Chinese duck instead.

            It's A Wonderful Life - things turned out pretty well

                        Love Actually - not everybody gets everything they wanted

                                     How the Grinch Stole Christmas - except this time his heart didn't grow 10 sizes that day and he did not return the presents or the roast beast

                                                Die Hard - Only Hans Gruber had a worse Christmas than you

This year we're not doing half Santa's.  Too wishy washy.  Also, I can't find the half Santa icon.

Now the data.

The 538 Expected is based on their win/lose/draw percentages; the SF Expected is me forcing those percentages into whole wins and draws.  The Percent columns tell us what percent of points the clubs actually garnered compared to available, 538 Expected and SF Expected.  We do these "degree of difficulty" adjustments because if you had to play Man City, Liverpool and Leicester City your chances of getting nine points is considerably less than if you played, say, West Brom, Newcastle, and Southampton. 

Looking at clubs of interest here at BFS. 

Newcastle 

Carroll exceeds his goal total from 2020 in one strike

Yeah, they only got two points and looked awful in the draw against Fulham.  Realistically though, one point was all we could really expect so the 0-0 draw with Liverpool was a bonus.  Also, some credit that they kept Man City at 0-2 and had Leicester scrambling at the finish of that 1-2 result.  I probably gave them a little extra credit for being hit so hard by the virus.

Aston Villa 

Again, some will argue too generous - they didn't get that many more than they expected.  Except, they did get more than expected, beat who they should have beaten (West Brom and Crystal Palace), grabbed a draw from Chelsea and played Man United tough.  That's a better than average run.  Dennis was pleased, especially with the Man United effort, one of the better entertainment values of Matchweek 17.

Tottenham 

Arguably went in with a chance for 12 points.  Lost to Leicester and drew with Wolves.  Fulham match was postponed due to covid-19.  Rescued something with a solid 3-0 win over Leeds.  Still in fourth but lost ground on Liverpool, Man United and Leicester City plus Man City, Everton and Southampton caught them in the table. We didn't have to talk Michael B off the ledge but he wasn't happy.

Man United 

Might have gone with an extra half in other years as the only dropped points were a draw with Leicester.  Hard fought wins over Wolves and Aston Villa were not sure things.  They end the period second in the table.  Jeff H had plenty to cheer about.

Other teams of note.

Chelsea 

Not much went right for the Blues.  This might be a bit harsh but they were beaten by Arsenal and drew with Aston Villa before the 1-3 loss to Man City that was actually worse than it sounds.  Frank Lampard moved ahead of Sheffield United's Chris Wilder - who didn't exactly have the best Christmas either - in the EPL Sack Race.

Man City 

They took all points on offer, beating two quality sides (Southampton and Chelsea) in the process.  Would have been interesting to see the match with Everton, which was postponed due to covid-19.  Really disgusted to see a team ravaged by injuries and the virus still able to bring Aguero and Mahrez off the bench.  

Liverpool  

After thrashing Crystal Palace, the Reds dropped points in the next three matches, drawing with West Brom and Newcastle and losing to Southampton.  Five points given that schedule just isn't going to cut it.  Using Newcastle as a benchmark we conclude that Liverpool is not as good as either Man City or Leicester.  In the period of festive fixtures, the Magpies lost to City 0-2 and Leicester City 1-2 but drew 0-0 with Liverpool.

Arsenal  

Boom Xhaka Laca.  Or was it Boom Saka Laca?  Whichever.  Granit Xhaka, Bukayo Saka and Alexandre Lacazette went on a scoring tear to fuel three straight wins.  After losing to Everton, we wondered if Mikel Arteta would make it through the 17 days of Christmas.  With the consecutive wins over Chelsea, Brighton and West Brom, he looks out of danger for the moment.  

Nobody got shut out completely in the festive period but West Brom and Sheffield United only earned one each.  Wolves, Fulham and Newcastle weren't much better with two each.  Fulham can be excused since they only played two matches while Newcastle and Wolves had a tough schedule.  Best game of the weekend might have been the 3-3 draw between Wolves and Brighton.  I watched Wolves rally from 0-1 to take a 3-1 lead at halftime, then had to run some errands.  Came back and it was 3-3.  

Hopefully He Won't Walk Alone

Is there a song more associated with a football team than Gerry and the Pacemakers "You'll Never Walk Alone?"  Gerry Marsden passed away last weekend at 78.  As discussed in more detail here, the band was one of the bigger successes of the Merseybeat era, a reference to music coming from Liverpool in the 1960s.  

I Was For It Before I Was Against It

Sam Allardyce made no secret of his support for Brexit.  Now he's complaining about the inability to sign non-English players.  Details here.  Not feeling real sympathetic right now.

FA Cup Plus Midweek Fixtures

Mixed thoughts about this weekend's Third Round FA Cup fixtures, given how badly the virus has hit the lower tiers of English football.  One match has already been postponed.  Several teams, including Aston Villa will play without many first-team members.  This article outlines the issues well.  Of course, as noted in the article, maybe we're ignoring the larger question:

If you were to extend that logic, you could of course talk yourself into the argument that no football at all needs to take place, but this situation feels beyond even that precisely because of the unnecessary mix of clubs and situations.

But, if you're focused on saving the larger season, isn't this an absolutely unnecessary risk?  Never that enthusiastic about the competition in the first place, not even sure I'll tune in.  I say that now but we'll see.

Speaking of the larger season, if covid doesn't intervene any further, Matchweek 18 will play out over this Tuesday-Thursday and next Tuesday-Thursday.  In addition, the league will squeeze in the unplayed matches from Week 1 - Burnley vs Man United (1/12) and Man City vs Aston Villa (1/20).  Don't see TV coverage identified on the EPL web site yet.  

Newcastle will play Sheffield United on Tuesday at 1 pm in a match that could very well define the remainder of the season for the Magpies.  Lose and they clearly identify themselves as relegation-worthy.  Win and maybe the question remains unanswered.  Distressingly, 538 has Sheffield United as slight favorites (39/31/30); I could easily see this as a draw. 

Aston Villa hosting Spurs at 3:15 on Wednesday looks like the best of the bunch.  We'd be watching that one anyway but it's a stern test for both sides ambitions for this year.  BTW, Dennis's worst fear for this season is that Aston Villa do just well enough to qualify for Europa League.  He even asked if a team is allowed to refuse a spot.

I must admit that right now blogging is tough given the events in DC, the covid issues here and the question of whether they should even be playing football right now given the situation in England.  It does provide a distraction and hopefully I'll be back next week.