Stanger Things

Apologies to, well, Stranger Things

Even the scorelines that look normal have a weird story behind them.

The More Things Change...

Really hard to argue that wasn't deliberate

It wasn't supposed to be like this.  Sure Newcastle hadn't beaten Liverpool since December of 2015.  But, Newcastle were the in-form side, actually ahead of Liverpool in the table.   And, in fact, Newcastle had the run of play early.  To no avail though, as they conceded at 10 and again at 17 minutes.  [Editor's note:  You realize how ridiculous it is say they had the run of play while falling behind 0-2.]  Things couldn't get much worse, except they did.  Nick Pope came out to handle a long forward pass before Salah could get to it.  When I say "handle," I mean in the Law 12 sense.  This was a clear DOGSO and Pope was sent off.  Perfect.  The sending off has implications beyond just this contest and we'll discuss that later in the post.

Newcastle had arguably been the better side to this point and what's weird is that after the sending off, they were clearly the better side.  Final stats include 14/13 for shots, 4/7 for shots on target and 1.7/1.8 for xG.  Some excellent opportunities were not converted.  Certainly, Liverpool were on cruise control after the red card.  Still, it has to mean something that they didn't melt away.  Not for the standings but maybe for the rest of the season.

Not So Fast

After we essentially handed the title to Man City in last week's post, of course they stumbled big time with a 1-1 draw at Nottingham Forest.  Meanwhile, Arsenal posted what looks like a routine 4-2 win at Aston Villa.  Except there was nothing routine about it.  Aston Villa had 1-0 and 2-1 leads.  The match went deep into stoppage time still 2-2 until a freakish Emiliano Martinez own goal at 93 minutes broke the tie.  When I say "freakish, well, see for yourself.  Arsenal added an "empty net" goal in the closing seconds after Villa had sent Martinez up for a set piece opportunity.  Neither Dennis nor I were buying  the announcers' spin that Arsenal "wanted it more" and all that "character and quality" nonsense.  The ball hit the post, ricocheted back, hit Martinez in the back of the head and went into the goal.  The Gunners were effing lucky.  

Tottenham (2-0 over West Ham) and Man United (3-0 against Leicester) were among the few score lines that a) look right and b) don't require much explanation.  The bad news is Spurs move ahead of Newcastle into the 4th spot in the table.  Fulham just don't seem to realize they are playing way above their heads and beat Brighton on the road 1-0.  I didn't see the match but everything points to a blow-out in favor of the Seagulls; possession was 65/35, shots 21/5, shots on target 7/2 and xG 2.35/.25.  But it was Fulham that got the late goal to take all three points and move into sixth.  Brentford were solid favorites home to Crystal Palace but needed a late stoppage time goal to grab a 1-1 draw; that's not exactly according to form either.  

Reshuffling

More goofy stuff at the other end of the table too.  All three sides in the relegation zone posted wins.  Southampton stunned Chelsea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge; lemme guess, a James Ward Prowse free kick.  Potter is almost level now with David Moyes in the sack race.  Bournemouth upset Wolves 1-0 also on the road; on paper it looks like Wolves dominated but the Cherries scored with their only shot on target.  I guess Everton's 1-0 win over Leeds at Goodison Park really can't be considered an upset. 

Perhaps highlighting the precariousness of their situation, even with the surprise win, Southampton are still bottom of the table.  Bournemouth and Everton do escape for the moment, replaced by West Ham and Leeds.

You'll Never F$&k Up Alone

In Tuesday's CL match an Anfield, Thibaut Courtois had an awesome mess-up that led to Liverpool's second goal.  Not to worry, Alisson Becker, probably not wanting his keeper colleague to feel bad, responded not long after with a howler of his own.  Details and video can be had here.  That's some crazy sh...stuff.  Liverpool had a bad day overall as they failed to hold a 2-0 lead, losing the home leg of this tie 2-5.  

All four EPL sides find themselves in varying degrees of jeopardy after the first legs of the Round of 16 ties.  Liverpool are clearly in trouble.  Tottenham (vs Milan) and Chelsea (vs Dortmund) are similarly situated in that they both lost the away leg 1-0.  Not insurmountable but definitely have work to do.  Man City probably not in real trouble but they only managed a 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig in their away leg and will have to do better back at home.

There's No Crying In Soccer

When you discover your side is not in a league of their own

Even if your side blows two leads and eventually loses 2-4.  Long-time Aston Villa fan Tom Hanks made his first visit to Villa Park on Saturday.  A fan since at least 2008, he's no stranger to the ups and downs of being a Villa supporter.  He was warmly welcomed and did see a great match.  Hanks' interest in Aston Villa is discussed in more detail here.

She's Still Right

Remember a few years ago when Karen Carney suggested that Leeds benefited from the Covid break in 2020 because Marcelo Biesla's tactics and training tend to wear players out.  Also recall the shitstorm that ensued.  As I pointed out in this BFS post (scroll down to She Was Right), the data completely supported her position.  

I bring this up again because I finally worked my way through Inverting the Pyramid, Jonathan Wilson's meticulous historical treatise on soccer tactics.  [Side note: I found the Audible version easier than trying to read the print version.]  Biesla gets about eight pages in Chapter 18.  After pointing out what the innovations he brought to the table, Wilson then gets to the downside.  Notable passages from page 332 include:

- Fatigue has always been the curse of the Bielsa side.  The intensity he demands seems unsustainable over any protracted period...

- By May, though, weariness had set in...

- When the center-forward Fernando Llorente arrived to train with Spain before the European Championship, he was so exhausted that the national coach, Vicente Del Bosque, said he knew immediately would play no part in the tournament .

 In other words, Carney wasn't the first to point out this trend.  Probably just the first woman to do so.

Playing for Hardware

The keeper who will Carry Us to the Carabao Cup title

For us, the big game this weekend is the Carabao Cup Final between Newcastle and Man United, Sunday at 11:30.  As we mentioned earlier, Magpie keeper Nick Pope picked up a red card and a three-game suspension for his DOGSO against Liverpool.  Since the Carabao Cup is an EFL competition, the suspension applies to the final.  No worries, Dubravka is an excellent replacement.  Except his is cup-tied, having already appeared in the competition - for Man United no less. Okay, we'll go with Karl Darlow.  Sorry he's on loan at Hull City and cannot be recalled.  So we turn to Loris Karius.  He does come with some baggage; he made two mistakes in Liverpool's 1-3 Champions League Final loss to Real Madrid in 2018, seen here.  Note that he likely suffered a concussion prior to the mistakes and probably wouldn't have even been on the pitch under today's protocols.  And further, this is frankly not a disaster.  Part of the reason Newcastle have allowed the fewest goals this season is a back line that has allowed the 5th fewest shots/90 minutes and the 5th fewest shots on target per 90 as well.  My argument is slightly damaged by the fact that they have the lowest goals per shots on target in the league, suggesting Pope is a also a key factor in the low goals against number.  

Still, we really shouldn't be making excuses before the match begins.  They are looking reasonably healthy going in.  Bruno is back from suspension.  Sure, Man United is the favorite favourite, but at 4/6 vs 11/10, the spread is not huge.  We're hopeful of an interesting match.

The Cup final shortens the EPL schedule by a couple of matches.  Three things to note.  First, no early Saturday match - sweet. Second, there's a decent Friday match between Fulham and Wolves at 3 pm on USA.  And third, there's an extra Saturday match at 2:45 between Crystal Palace and Liverpool.  There are four Saturday 10 am matches.  We are torn between Everton - Aston Villa and Leeds -  Southampton.  The latter is a key relegation matchup between 19th and 20th; Leeds however are serious favorites.  As to the former, besides our loyalty to Aston Villa, this could be just plain competitive football, though Dennis would argue (hope?) that Villa are actually the much better side.  USA thinks the relegation angle trumps other factors and that's the game they chose.  You could also go with Leicester - Arsenal or West Ham - Nottingham Forest; I'm getting a whiff of relegation flop sweat in that latter fixture.  

The Saturday feature 12:30 match is on USA, not NBC, and doesn't look all that appetizing with Bournemouth hosting Man City.  We do like the prospect of warming up the for Cup final with Tottenham - Chelsea at 8:30 Sunday on USA.  With the Blues 10th in the table, already 10 points behind Spurs, hard to think that's not a must-win for Chelsea.  

Two mid-week EPL contests on Wednesday: Arsenal - Everton at 2:45 on USA and Wolves - Liverpool at 3 on Peacock.  No Champions League or Europa League so that will have to be your midweek serving.

MLS Sneaks Up On Us

It's the end of February, a time in the US when pretty much no one is thinking about domestic soccer.  So of course, we look up to find that Saturday is Opening Day.  BFS Ultra-marathoner Jeff H and I will be at Subaru Park, freezing our butts off as the Union take on Columbus Saturday night at 7:30.  Those who want to watch from the comfort of their warm houses, well, that'll cost you because you'll need a subscription to Apple TV to do so.  A couple of reads into articles about how people with Android phones can access this service, I'm pretty much ready to tell MLS what they can do with this.  Harder to work with and costs more money but trust us, it's better. Maybe save that rant for another week after we see how it really works, or doesn't work.

Moving on to more pleasant things, the predictions for the Union are looking pretty good.  We did lose Cory Burke (to the Red Bulls, ouch), Paxten Aaronson to the Bundesliga and Matt Freese (to NYCFC, ouch again).  The good news is we didn't lose Wagner or Mbaizo so our back four is unchanged.  Actually, the starting XI is basically unchanged.  Joaquin Torres could add some attacking depth and maybe some of the 1 v 1 dribbling skills missing since Ilsinho departed.  

Early signs suggest this is a possibility again

As far as predictions go, you check out 538's opening forecast here; second ranked, 15% to win
Supporters' Shield and 13% to win MLS Cup.  The team preview at mls.com, available here, reads pretty well too.  Note at the end all the writers pick the U for first or second in the conference.  That's encouraging.

Best early sign is that, as far as I know, no Union players are dealing with visa problems.  This is progress.