No Cup for U

Come back, one year.  Newcastle went quietly in the Carabao Cup final loss.  The Union got a good result in their season opener.

"Did You Guys Forget There Was A Game Today?"

Can't blame Karius for the loss

That was Dennis's question as he watched the replay of Newcastle's uninspiring 0-2 loss to Man United in the Carabao Cup Final.  The answer was apparently no.  The Magpies weren't awful but they weren't good either.  Poor outings from Botman, Wilson and Almiron.  ASM had a few ideas but they never panned out.  Guimaraes looked rusty returning from a three-game suspension.  Ironically, one player who wasn't bad was replacement keeper Loris Karius. Yes, there were two goals but on one he had no chance and the second was a deflection off Botman.  Just a totally forgettable day.

That's two 0-2 losses in a row.  They haven't won since January 15th.  Five draws have kept it from being worse.  Fact is, this team is struggling right now.  Six goals in nine matches.  Yes, we are a long way from the team that spent all their time trying to avoid relegation.  But we are also a team that looks a long way from being top four material. 

Sometime You Just Gotta Have A Feel For This Game

Long-term Phillies announcer Richie Ashburn used to say that after he made a bold prediction that came true.  Dennis was clearly channeling Ashburn as he watched Aston Villa take on Everton.  As the two sides were playing an energetic, up-and-down the field 0-0 first half, he was initially skeptical of Villa's prospects.  Then he observed, "I do think our bench is better if this pace keeps up."  Midway through the second half he said that Bailey needed to come out for Buendia, who could be a better link through the midfield.  Apparently, Emery heard him and did just that.  And voila', Aston Villa scored two minutes later.  Buendia himself later made it 2-0 on a great shot to the lower left hand corner.  That was a good win on the road and really removes the relegation threat for this team.  Dennis's conclusion: I could run this team.  Probably could.

#DIV/0!

Potter: Pining for Brighton?

Excel users will recognize that expression.  It's what is displayed in a cell in which you've tried to divide something by zero.  It could apply to Chelsea's £300 million January transfer spend divided by many things.  Wins in last five matches.  Victories over teams above them in the table.  Wins over Southampton (yes, they lost to last place Southampton home and away).  Percent chance of making Champions League as calculated at 538.  

Tottenham just added to the misery with a 2-0 win on Sunday.  Spurs weren't exactly awesome but they did manage two moments of quality between an Oliver Skipp blast from just outside the box and a Harry Kane shot from close in off an Eric Dier corner.  With the defeat, Chelsea are closer to the relegation zone (10 points) than to the 4th in the table (14 points).  

Arsenal Not Conceding Anything Yet

The Gunners got two more wins this week - a 1-0 result on Saturday over Leicester and a 4-0 hammering of Everton on Wednesday.  That's three wins in a row since the loss to Man City, who took care of Bournemouth 4-1.  The Arsenal lead is five points and the two sides have played the same number of matches.  At 538, Arsenal are favored 57% to 40%. 

Thanks Guys But Did You Have to Wait So Long

David Moyes was likely about 20 minutes from getting his walking papers as his West Ham side were still 0-0 with Nottingham Forest heading into the 70th minute.  Then Danny Ings got two in three minutes and Rice and Antonio each added another and the Hammers were home free with a 4-0 win.  They are by no means out of danger but the two extra points will make a big difference.

Our New Manager Is Newer Than Your New Manager

The Leeds - Southampton contest featured 1) the 19th and 20th place sides in the table and 2) two brand new managers.  Ruben Selles was appointed caretaker manager of Southampton on 2/12; the position was made permanent through the end of season on 2/24.  For their part, Leeds named Javi Gracia as their new manager on 2/21.  That makes it hard to determine which team would benefit more from the new manager bounce.  Our view was advantage Leeds.

That is how it played out on the pitch too.  This was a typical, close relegation scrap but we thought Leeds were the slightly better side and the 1-0 final looked about right.  The three points were enough to get Leeds out of the bottom three - for the moment.

Will the Wolves Survive? (apologies to Los Lobos)

The gravity of the relegation zone can keep pulling you down if you're not careful.  The slightest slump puts you in danger again.  Wolves looked to be breaking free but after the 0-2 loss to Liverpool on Wednesday, they are 15th in the table, a mere three points clear of 18th.  They have 14 points from the last ten, which just shows how awful they were before the World Cup break.  At 538 they're listed at 25% chance of going down, which puts them ahead of Southampton(71), Bournemouth(63), Everton(57) and Nottingham Forest(37).  

Leicester and Nottingham Forest are experiencing the same issue.  Leicester have two losses in a row and suddenly they are only three points above 18th place, albeit with a much better goal differential. Forest have a draw and two losses in their last three and now they are just four points out of 18th; to make matters worse, their goal differential is horrendous.

Some FA Cup Dreams Are Still Alive

Sorry that we did not alert you to the mid-week 5th Round FA Cup matches.  Not everything went according to plan and the quarterfinals will feature a host of non-EPL sides.  Leicester and Spurs fell to Championship Division sides - Blackburn and Sheffield United respectively.  League Two Grimsby downed Southampton.   Burnley (Championship Division) beat League One Fleetwood.  So those four non-EPL sides are onto the quarterfinals along with Man City, Man United, Fulham and Brighton.  Matches are March 18th; match ups are here.  Note that the Sheffield United - Blackburn fixture means there will be at least one non-EPL side in the semi-finals.

Good But Not 4-1 Good

The Union had a successful home opener against the Columbus Crew at a frigid Subaru Park.  However, the 4-1 final is very flattering to the Union.  The first half was mostly Columbus possession as the Crew moved the ball with relative ease.  Their goal at 28 minutes wasn't a total surprise but note that it was an own goal.  The U got one back before halftime on the first of two sketchy handling calls.  Referee Lukasz Szpala called this one nearly immediately but I thought proximity and the defender's arm being relatively close to his side should have been taken into account; probably correct though that VAR did not overrule as it wasn't an obvious error.  Whatever, 1-1 at a halftime was a bit lucky.

Carranza had a brace with some excellent assists
Photo: Elizabeth Robertson, Philadelphia Inquirer

Julian Carranza put Philadelphia up early in the second half with a nifty (lucky?) flick that found its way into the goal.  Kudos to Jose Martinez for excellent tackle at midfield to get the play started.  The lead went to 3-1 with a second handling call.  This one was not called on the field and everybody proceeded to set up for a corner.  Then Szpala is getting info from the VAR and eventually heads to the monitor.  The defender's arm looked barely extended and he was turning away from the ball; VAR should have left this one alone, especially since the review took several minutes, clear evidence that there was not an obvious error.  At least there was nothing cheap about the fourth goal.  Recall last week we mentioned newcomer Joaquin Torres and his 1 v 1 skills as an attacker.  He was on the pitch for mere seconds before he demonstrated those talents.  Watch how he spins away from several would-be tacklers to send  a perfect pass to Carranza who slotted it past the keeper for the 4-1 final.  This is an easy choice for the week's YouTubeableMoment.  Aside from the moves to get free, note that the pass is so perfect that Carranza does not need a touch to get it under control; his only touch is the shot.

Was it 4-1 good?  Probably not.  At least one of the PKs shouldn't have been given.  Columbus was able to move the ball into dangerous positions too easily.  But their goal was deflection off of Glesnes.  The Union had two well-worked goals of their own besides the PKs.  So we're not saying the W wasn't deserved, just that we shouldn't overvalue it.

Another Busy Week

And we get to start it bright and early with Saturday at 7:30 with Newcastle facing Man City.  Yeah, we got a draw with them last time but not holding out hope for anything from this one.

Five choices at 10 am.  The schedulers chose Chelsea - Leeds for the USA game.  I suppose that could be fun as we watch to see whether Graham Potter continues to be the Chelsea manager.  We'll probably go with Aston Villa - Crystal Palace as the most competitive of the choices.  Certainly more appealing than Arsenal hosting Bournemouth.  Wolves - Tottenham really shouldn't be all that close but Spurs can sometimes make things closer than they should be.  Brighton - West Ham is your final choice.

The 12:30 Saturday feature on NBC is all about relegation with Southampton hosting Leicester.  I would have had the Foxes as the clear favorite but 538 has this 37/37/26, or about as clear a potential draw as you can find.  

Sunday's early match is more relegation material, with Nottingham Forest hosting Everton at 9 on USA; 538 says this one should be very close as well at 38/34/28.  That's mostly a sign I think that 538 doesn't think much of Nottingham Forest.  

The other Sunday match should good as Liverpool play Man United at Anfield (11:30 on USA); Liverpool have the advantage of playing at home but Man United are in excellent form.

Add in a Monday match up of the interlopers; Brentford will take on Fulham at 3 pm on USA.  Fulham are ahead in the table but I see Brentford as the more likely underdog challenger for a spot in Champions or Europa League.

Speaking of Champion and Europa Leagues, there are games Tuesday - Thursday.  On Tuesday Chelsea are home against Dortmund, trailing 1-0 after their first leg.  Tottenham face the same situation on Wednesday against Milan.  Down one goal is not insurmountable but it does leave little room for error.  On Thursday Arsenal will face Sporting  and Man United take on Real Betis in Round of 16 action for Europa League.

Wait, not done yet.  Don't forget Union at Miami 7:30 Saturday.  Stay tuned for a possible big rant next week about Apple's MLS Season Pass.  Especially if they continue to show the scores on the links for replays.