Sean Dyche doesn't use a 4-4-2 but wins anyway. Yeah, kind of a strange weekend overall.
Scored Too Soon?
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Gordon did liven up the moribund Newcastle
offense in his debut (Getty Images) |
Both Newcastle and Aston Villa had 1-0 leads before the 10 minute mark but neither came away with the desired result. Newcastle never found the net again and was stuck with a disappointing 1-1 home draw with West Ham. Hard to say it was an unfair result. West Ham had only one shot on goal but Newcastle only managed two. Not good games for Saint-Maximim or Almiron. They clearly missed Bruno and Isak too. This was another match where it seemed Newcastle were doing an excellent job getting the ball into dangerous positions but not generating shots and goals. We have a way of checking on that. At 538 they track non-shot expected goals defined as:
an estimate of how many goals a team “should” have scored based on non-shooting actions they took around the opposing team’s goal: passes, interceptions, take-ons and tackles.
I expected Newcastle to be near the top in this category and indeed they are. With 36.32, they are fourth highest, behind Man City (45.1), Liverpool(40.2) and Arsenal (38); the league average is 27.55.
Of course, the good news is that it wasn't a loss. Also, striving to prove me wrong, Anthony Gordon came on in the 69th minute and brought life to the attack; they were so much better with him on the pitch, one wonders if he had come on earlier whether the Magpies could have grabbed all three points.
As for Aston Villa, the good news was that, as predicted this was exciting match - for the neutrals. The bad news is that it was a 2-4 loss to Leicester. We think three of Leicester's goals resulted from charitable acts by the Aston Villa defense and the final score looks a bit harsh. This was one of the few black marks against Emery so far. At least it's clear where he needs to focus his attentions.
Two weeks we might have gotten ahead of ourselves, suggesting that EPL title chase was now a two-horse race between Arsenal and Man City. Of course, both lost this weekend. Except, it really didn't change things much. Before the weekend, 538 had Arsenal with a 63% chance and City with a 34% chance to win the title. After their losses, Arsenal's number dropped to 58% but City's actually went up to 38%. Man United's draw on Wednesday added another point to City's chances. In other words, on January 23, the chance that the winner would be Arsenal or Man City was 97%. Going into this weekend, it's still 97%.
Choking Hazard
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| Casemiro: It's a misunderstanding. I said eff me not eff Mee |
In the second half of the Man United - Crystal Palace match, there was a bit of dust up after Palace's Jeff Schlupp fouled Antony. In the melee, United's Casemiro was seen with his hands around Ben Mee's neck. After Andre Marriner went to the video, he showed Casemiro the red card. You can see the incident
here. While appearing to choke another player is never a good look, this may have been more in the professional wrestling category of theatrics than violent conduct. In some angles it's hard to be sure there's really any force or attempt to choke. Also, the two hugged as the larger scuffle broke up. Still, United decided against appealing the decision and Casemiro will serve a three-match ban. Oh, the final was 2-1 Man United, which was good for them with Arsenal and Man City dropping points.
Nice of You to Show Up on Time
Tottenham have been plagued all year with poor first half performances. Not so against Man City. This 1-0 win might have been their best of the year, limiting City to just five shots on target. Harry Kane had the game's only goal in the 15th minute. We'll make it this week's
YouTubeableMoment, in part because it was the game winner but also recognizing that it made Kane Tottenham's all-time leading scorer. BFS Construction Manager Charlie O noted that while it feels like they've struggled all year, Spurs sit in 5th place, one point out of 4th. After the win over City, Spurs' chances of making Champions League shot up from 22% to 39%.
New Manager Bounce
Arsenal and Man United found themselves on the wrong side of the New Manager Bounce this weekend. At Goodison Park, Sean Dyche made his Everton debut with a big 1-0 win over the Gunners. Not a fluke, the Toffees earned all three points. Wait, they played a 4-5-1? Sean, I don't even know who you are anymore. Meanwhile, at Old Trafford, caretaker manager Michael Skubala led Leeds into action against Man United in the wake of the sacking of Jesse Marsch. Man United had to work their butts off to come back from an 0-2 deficit against Leeds just to grab a draw.
Turns Out He Wasn't Wrong
Jesse Marsch had recently been quoted as basically saying he wasn't particularly worried about relegation. We were somewhat incredulous as Leeds had been stuck in the lower part of the table, never more than a few points away from the bottom three. But when he got sacked on Monday, maybe he had the last laugh. As Dennis noted, "he was next levelling all of us."
£100 Million Per Shot
The weekend brought no change in Chelsea's or Liverpool's situation. Fresh off a huge January transfer spend, Chelsea had to settle for a 0-0 draw with Fulham. The Blues managed just three shots on target. They remain two points behind Fulham in the table. The good news is that with the point, they did slide ahead of Liverpool, who were awful against Wolves, falling 0-3. The stats suggest the final score might have been a little harsh. It did include an own goal from Matip. Hard to rule either out from making the Champions League, especially given revelations of Man City misdeeds (see below) but neither look particularly dangerous right now.
Recidivism Or Double Indemnity?
the tendency of a convicted criminal to reoffend.
"the prison has succeeded in reducing recidivism"
The EPL announced a list of over 100 violations by Man City of the league's Financial Fair Play rules. The basic story is
here. As noted in the article, not that long ago, UEFA had imposed a two-year ban on Man City participation in the Champions League that was overturned. I'm not totally clear on whether these are new violations (recividism) or a different body pursing the same violations (double indemnity). Actually, it looks like it could be both. And the thing that saved City last time - essentially statute of limitations - doesn't apply to the EPL charges. Sanctions range from fines to point deductions to relegation. Stay tuned, though it's unlikely things will play out quickly.
Sheffield United Wrecks 'Em
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Mullin lies prone on the turf after being held in the box: the question
isn't whether it was a foul but what is he wearing under his shorts |
Wrexham United kept up the FA Cup magic for just a little while longer before eventually falling 3-1 to Sheffield United. There were exciting moments though. After a scoreless first half in which they were thoroughly outplayed, Wrexham fell behind early in the second half. Sheffield United offered a lifeline when a defender grabbed Paul Mullin's shirt in the box and the Wrexham striker was more than happy to convert the PK. All square with 30 minutes to go. Amazingly, Sheffield United committed another foul in the box at 71 minutes. Mullin was the taker again but this time he was denied. Even after missing that opportunity, Wrexham kept the score level into stoppage time, with the prospect of an extra 30 minutes or PKs looming. Sheffield had other ideas and poured in two goals after 90 minutes. They were clearly the better side and deserved the win but one can't help wonder what happens if Mullin buries the second PK. Good on Wrexham for such a great example of why the we still like the FA Cup.
We head to Round 5, with most of the dreamers gone now. Fourth tier Grimsby Town is still there and so is third tier Fleetwood. The rest of the field is nine EPL sides and five from the Championship Division. Matches are 2/28 and 3/1. The full field is here.
Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't
Dennis: Did you say you got a lot of laundry done this weekend?
Steve: No, I said there were a lot of clean sheets this weekend.
Eight to be exact. It seemed like a lot but I checked just to make sure. It was but not by as much expected. Looking at all games through 2/8/23, there were 124 clean sheets in 217 matches, which means it happens 28.57% of the time. So we'd expect to see about 5.7 clean sheets in any given weekend.
Champions League Is Back
The EPL offers a mixed bag this weekend. There are three derbies, a non-derby derby, a good relegation-relevant contest and a homecoming for Eddie Howe. Really though, the key match this week is Wednesday's 1-2 match-up between Arsenal and Man City.
Derbies? The weekend kicks off at 7:30 Saturday with West Ham hosting Chelsea. Surprisingly, this is forecast as a tight match despite the big difference in the table. There's also Arsenal - Brentford at 10 am Saturday and a Merseyside Derby Monday at 2:30. That last one doesn't have quite the same cachet as it used to, with Liverpool sitting 10th and Everton 18th. We hear that fans do not consider Crystal Palace - Brighton a derby but the two sides have a longstanding feud, explained here; they play Saturday at 10 am..
Besides the two already mentioned, other choices for 10 am Saturday are Fulham - Nottingham Forest, Leicester - Tottenham and Southampton - Wolves. We'll probably go with that last one as both teams are fighting relegation.
Eddie Howe returns to Vitality Stadium as Newcastle travel to take on Bournemouth. For the third week running, the Magpies have been given the feature 12:30 Saturday slot. We really should be taking all three points here; though Bruno will still be missing, we read that Isak trained this week and will be available.
Two Sunday matches include quick rematch of Leeds - Man United at 9 am (the EPL version of home and home series) and Man City hosting Aston Villa at 11:30. Can't say we're counting on any points for Villa in that one.
Both Champions League and Europa League return for their Rounds of 16, which means football Tuesday-Thursday the next two weeks. EPL contestants this week include Tottenham at Milan and Chelsea at Dortmund. Europa League action includes the rare sight of Barcelona playing Man United and it's not a Champions League contest. Schedules for both competitions are here and here.
Also, there's some big NFL contest on Sunday. Check your local listings for details.
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