Who's In Charge Here?

Another two match weeks where you really couldn't depend on things going according to plan.  I count six decent upsets (losing team was favored by at least 10% at 538) and another two that qualify as minor upsets.   Biggest among them is Liverpool failing to score at home in a 0-1 defeat to Brighton.  The top ten teams dropped almost as many points as the bottom half (28 vs 34).  The four teams who won both their matches included Man City and Chelsea but also Crystal Palace and Brighton.  Teams dropping five or six points included Burnley, Fulham and West Brom but also Southampton, Arsenal and Tottenham.  Out of respect for Michael B, we will not say any more about Spurs' week.

Man City have won seven straight and are undefeated in their last 13.  They lead by three points with a game in hand.  Man United looked happy enough to stumble through a 0-0 draw with Arsenal then produced a unique result vs Southampton in which their goals scored matched the number of Saints on the field at match end - nine.  They are second in the table.  Leicester and Liverpool round out the top four.  At the bottom,  Fulham, West Brom and Sheffield did much to solidify their relegation chances but Burnley and Newcastle refuse to go away.

Almost forgot about this week's YouTubeableMoment.  As much as I'd like to take something from the Newcastle win, this counterattacking goal from Liverpool is too good to pass up.  So many good pieces and all of them necessary for the goal to happen.  But really, how does Salah get that ball under control so easily?

Newcastle Get Bonus Points But It Doesn't Feel That Way

To be honest, I had the Magpies down for just one point out of the two matches, thinking they'd lose to Everton and draw with Crystal Palace.  But of course, after their solid and deserved 2-0 win over the Toffees, I started thinking about four or even six points.  And after Newcastle took an early lead against Palace, my hopes got way ahead of me.  The 1-2 loss feels like we gave away the bonus points earned at Everton.

Wilson's brace at Goodison Park was the difference

Against Everton, the Magpies seemed in the match pretty much from the start.  This was not the
bunkered in side we've come to expect when they are road underdogs.  The 4-3-1-2 did the job defensively but also provided enough attacking to keep them in the match.  When Callum Wilson's header found the back of the net at 73 minutes, the possibility of taking home some points became very real.  He added a goal in stoppage time to seal the deal.  Though they again lost the possession battle, most of the other stats say this was a deserved win.  

Jonjo Shelvey got Newcastle off to a great start with a finish from the top of the box two minutes in against Crystal Palace.  I jokingly texted to Dennis that we scored too soon.  Hah, joke's on me.  Two goals in the space of five minutes found the Magpies behind by the 25th minute.  And there they would stay.  This one was particularly frustrating as Newcastle dominated in every category, including possession, but would never find the equalizer.  By game's end, I had completely forgotten how the original expectation for the week was a single point.  

Aston Villa Get Bonus Points and It Feels That Way

I predict strikers will soon be going sleeveless

Fairly well dominated by Southampton, Villa managed to steal a 1-0 win from the Saints. The goal was decent enough - a Barkley header off a Grealish cross - but the stats reveal a one-sided affair.  Possession was 60/40, shots 20/8, corners 7/1 and expected goals 2.35-.75.  Keeper Emiliano Martinez was the difference here as he made some incredible stops, including one in stoppage time.  Oh yeah, Southampton had a goal in the closing seconds overruled by VAR for offside.    As you can see from the picture, if Ings wore his sleeves any shorter or Matty Cash had a bigger butt, this match would have been tied.  Speaking of Cash, he dodged a handling call in the first half, likely only because the ball may have bounced off his leg first.  

Comments about Aston Villa's mid-week 1-3 loss to West Ham are better left unsaid.  They looked like a side that isn't very deep that's played a lot of matches recently and we'll leave it at that.  Well, and maybe add that after an awesome year so far, Martinez did let in some softer goals in this one.  And what the hell is Jesse Lingard doing a) in a West Ham kit and b) scoring two goals against Aston Villa?  That loan paid dividends quickly.  Okay, now we can leave it at that.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Villa were in financial difficulty?

Steve: No, I said Cash nearly caused them some problems

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis:  The hashtag label Palace-Wolves is perfect for that whiny Zaha

Steve: How so?

Dennis: #CRYWOL(F)

But She Was Right

Karen Carney makes NBC debut

NBC/Peacock finally put a woman commentator in the booth for the Crystal Palace - Wolves match.  Karen Carney played for the English WNT and has been doing some broadcasting work for BT and Amazon Prime.  Dennis and I give her high marks.  Her points were mostly spot on and I thought her delivery was good too.  

So of course some people have an issue with her.  Prior to the Leeds - West Brom match she made an observation about Leeds (we'll discuss exactly what she said in a minute) that did not sit well with the club and some its players.  So the club and a few players tweeted their displeasure in a somewhat mocking tone.  Well, as we know from things on this side of the pond, once leadership signals it's okay, the criticism turns abusive.  She has the added benefit of being a woman so much of the abuse was sexist.  You can read the details here.

So what did she say about Leeds?  Carney observed: 

“I actually think they got promoted [last season] because of Covid, in terms of it gave them a bit of respite.” 

So does Leeds have a history of collapsing in the second half of the season?  Easy enough to check.  

Holy lactic acid Batman.  They did have big dropoffs in the previous two seasons and the year they get a long layoff due to the pandemic, they don't have a big collapse.  Yes, I know this is only correlation and not causality but the numbers support her point.  And as to causality, Leeds manager Marcello Biesla does employ high-intensity tactics of the kind that in fact could tire a squad out over a long season, especially in the Championship Division which has more games.  

I'm left appalled at the double standard because there's no way a male commentator gets this abuse, even if he's wrong.  And she wasn't even wrong.  The Leeds response that we won the division by 10 points is irrelevant; with the long layoff, their second half dropoff was 11-16 points less than in previous years.  There's your 10 points right there.  We get so much crap from pundits and commentators that simply isn't supported by the facts and she basically gets this right and still gets abuse for it.  At least I didn't hear her with the crap observation about a two goal lead being the hardest to defend.  Next time someone drops that one on you, tell them "I can only explain it to you. I can't understand it for you." If I sound annoyed, I went through this whole data thing with baseball between 1980-1992 listening to people spout old adages that simply weren't true.  I know sportswriters and pundits hate this sh..tuff because it used to be they could say anything and there was no way to check.

An Easy Week?

Just match week 23 spread over Saturday to Monday and some FA Cup fixtures mid-week.  Big clash of the weekend is Liverpool - Man City at 11:30 on Sunday (NBCSN).  This has to be in the at least "must draw" category for the Reds.  A loss here and they will be 10 points behind City with one more game played.  But they look like two teams heading in opposite directions and you fear for Liverpool in this one.

Dennis and I will know our fates soon enough.  Aston Villa start the weekend with the 7:30 match, hosting Arsenal on NBCSN.  Newcastle will be the TV match at 10 on NBCSN, hosting Southampton.  Surprisingly, both our sides are very slight favorites.  Don't know about Dennis but if Newcastle grab a draw here, I'll be pleased.  Remind me of that next week if I complain.  

Top of the table action includes a pretty good looking match between Man United and Everton at 3 pm on Saturday (NBCSN) and Wolves - Leicester on Sunday at 9 am on NBCSN.  United are probably good in their match but who knows what the Wolves will bring against the Foxes.  Probably should mention Fulham - West Ham (NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday) and Sheffield United - Chelsea (3:15 Sunday on Peacock) since they are just outside the top four; we'll be looking for the favorites to take care of business in those two as we don't need relegation rivals getting any extra points.  Same for Tottenham - West Brom; maybe a match against the Baggies (7 am Sunday on NBCSN) is the ticket for whatever is ailing Spurs (probably the absence of Harry Kane). 

Burnley - Brighton (Saturday at 10 on Peacock) was supposed to be a big relegation showdown but the Seagulls are close to being safe.  This forces us to root for them over the Clarets.  The week concludes on Monday with Leeds and Crystal Palace (3 pm NBCSN), a match between two sides in the EPL nether region - the space where neither European football next fall nor relegation is a real possibility any more.

FA Cup 5th Round fixtures cover Tuesday-Thursday.  List of matches is here.  Dennis and I are thrilled that both our sides are out and will get some rest this week.  Interesting, Wolves - Southampton face each other in the FA Cup on Thursday, then again on Sunday in EPL action.  Everton - Tottenham on Wednesday might be the best of the viewing for FA Cup action.  

Looks like more snow on Sunday, ending mid-afternoon.  Convenient as you can watch the matches and shovel later and still meet the Philadelphia city regulations of shoveling your sidewalk within six hours of the snow ending.