Close to the Edge

Apologies to Yes

ASM levels things at 1-1 but it's downhill from here

That sucking sound you hear is Newcastle being drawn closer and closer to the relegation zone.  With the Magpies at Old Trafford on Sunday, we had no realistic expectations that they'd get any points this weekend. The 3-1 final looks about right.  They were in it for awhile, including 1-1 at half thanks to a nice finish from Saint-Maximim.  A second half goal from James and then a [soft] penalty in the 75th minute brought us to the inevitable and expected conclusion.

No, our attentions were focused on what other teams could do for us.  West Brom helped a little with a 0-0 draw at Burnley and Crystal Palace's last second 2-1 win over Brighton was good too.  But the one we really needed - Fulham v Sheffield United - didn't go as well, with the Cottagers eventually grabbing a 1-0 win that leaves them just three points behind Newcastle.  Buckle up.

Champions League Stock Market Report

Last week featured key match ups between Champions League hopefuls.  Let's take "stock" of where things stand now using 538 percentages

Man City (stable) - Only because you can't be higher than a 100% chance.  Workmanlike 1-0 win over Arsenal does bring them closer to EPL title

Man United (up) - With the aforementioned win over Newcastle, they move from 76 to 82% and separate themselves from the rest

Leicester (up) - Important win 2-1 win over Villa (playing without Grealish and Cash) plus results elsewhere take them from 55 to 63%

Liverpool (down) - Merseyside derby loss to Everton move them from 72 to 55%; dropping like a stone

Chelsea (down) - Not clear where this team is going; 1-1 draw with Southampton takes them down to 52 from 55.  Clearly still in it but need some consistency.

West Ham (up) - Marked improvement (15 to 22) thanks to 2-1 win over Spurs; Jesse Lingard scores once more against a BFS and looks like the Loan of the Season.

Tottenham (down) - Looking totally like the whole is less than the sum of the parts, they had no chemistry in the loss to West Ham, which took them down from 11 to 10.  Mourinho jumps into the lead in the sack race; I wonder what kind of odds I could have gotten that Lampard and Mourinho would be gone before Bruce?

Match stats say Ahmed "Tickle Me" El Mohamady
 wasn't bad but I still prefer Cash

Everton (up) - The Toffees got a nice bump (from 2 to 7) after the win over Liverpool but still look like a long shot

Aston Villa (down) - Their lack of depth showed against Leicester but to the Villans' credit, they did make a decent match of it after going down 0-2; unfortunately for Dennis, Europa League still possible.

Arsenal (down) - And almost out at 2 percent.  The 0-1 loss to Man City wasn't terrible but there's just too much ground to make up at this point.

Yo Momma

A new line of insults, as in "My team is so bad..."  For example, Newcastle are so bad we actually care about the Fulham-Sheffield United and Fulham Crystal Palace matches.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say Leeds were facing some personnel issues?

Steve: No, I said they had a Klich in their lineup. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (seconds after Fulham scored against Sheffield United): Live?

Steve: Eff me.

Steve: In other words, yes.

Pundit Jinx?

Dennis spent most of the Brighton - Crystal Palace match trashing Christian Benteke.  Ironic then when he (Benteke, not Dennis)  scored the winning goal on basically the last play of the game.  Never seen such a statistical domination that did not yield even a point.  The Seagulls' edge in every category was astonishing; possession was 75/25, shots 25/3, shots on target 5/2, corners 13/0 and expected goals 2.8/.25.  Dennis, please keep it up this weekend in case this works when Palace take on Fulham

Seeing Europe on Bicycles

Yes, that's going to go in

The Champions League and Europa League fixtures have been fun.  On Tuesday we saw a good match between Atletico Madrid and Chelsea in which the only goal was this week's Co-YouTubeableMoment, an outstanding bicycle kick from Olivier Giroud. Celebration was muted because he was initially ruled offside until VAR revealed he had received the ball from a deliberate play by a defender.  This tie is in no way over as they travel to London for the second leg on March 9.

Not to be outdone, Dele got his own bicycle kick goal the next day against Wolfsburg as Spurs closed out that tie in convincing fashion.  We make it this week's Co-YouTubeableMoment. 

Would be unfair not to mention Arsenal's come-from-behind Europa League win vs Benfica.  That one was 1-1 going into the second leg.  The Gunners took a 2-1 lead but found themselves in jeopardy after conceding two to the "visitors." Under the away goals rule, Arsenal now needed two to advance.  [Side note: how is it that Europa is still using the away goals rule when so many of these matches are being played in neutral venues?]  Kieran Tierney got one back quickly and Aubameyang got the game winner in the 87th minute, sending Arsenal into the round of 16.  Interesting that Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal are underperforming in the EPL but seem to be doing fine in Europe.

Next year will feature a new European League called the Europa Conference League.  Details can be had here.  Still sorting through the info but it looks like it will rank below Europa League, since the winner gets a spot in next year's Europa League.  Wait, is second place a spot in the next two Europa League competitions?  The only good news I see here is that I don't think it increases the number of EPL clubs playing in something other than Champions League; the EPL spot in the new competition goes to the winner of the League Cup.  That winner used to qualify for Europa League so I don't think it's an extra spot.  Pretty sure that if League Cup winner is already qualified for something better else, they go down the standings until they find a victim candidate.  So if you finish 7th or better you could find yourself playing in Donetsk next fall.

Another Two Fer

We'll be burning the mid-week oil again with matches running from Saturday through Thursday, with most teams playing twice.  Given that Callum Wilson is still out, we are grateful that Newcastle only have just one versus Wolves on Saturday at 3 pm (Peacock).  We might be able to nick a draw there but not holding my breath.  Villa have tricky one with Leeds (Saturday at 12:30 on Peacock) but also an easier fixture against Sheffield United (Wednesday at 1 on Peacock).  And scoreboard watching means we'll have a close eye on Fulham, who play Crystal Palace on Sunday (7 on Peacock) and Tottenham on Thursday (1 pm on Peacock).  Wait, too many Peacock matches for my liking here, especially the Sunday 7 am match.  

This week may decide Chelsea's CL hopes.  They have a home match with Man United on Sunday (11:30 on NBCSN), then face Liverpool at Anfield on Thursday (3:15 on Peacock).  The Blues have blown hot and cold under new manager Thomas Tuchel.  On the other hand, Man United seem to specialize in draws against the top sides and  Liverpool are in free fall having lost four straight overall as well as four straight at home.  Arsenal's slim chances may disappear if they can't get a result against Leicester on Sunday (7 am but at least on NBCSN).  Everton are in the same boat with matches against Southampton (Monday at 3 on NBCSN) and Leicester on Wednesday (1 pm on NBCSN). Spurs may have a chance to revive theirs with matches against Burnley (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN) and Fulham (Thursday at 1 on Peacock).

I'd say keep those DVRs running smoothly but NBC using a lot of Peacock so I guess it means stream safely.