Are You Not Entertained?

I hope you took advantage of the sketchy weather and caught some of the action.  A pile of great stuff, including some fun FA Cup matches too.

A Pyrrhic Victory Is Better Than A Pyrrhic Loss

Newcastle back three by the end
 of the Southampton match

Newcastle's unexpected 3-2 win came in an unexpected manner, with numerous twists and turns.  At least we knew they would be attacking, as the line up included all of Allan Saint-Maximin, Miguel Almiron and new loanee Joe Willock.  Sure enough, there was Willock scoring in the 16th minute off a pass from ASM; an easy choice for this week's  YouTubeableMoment. Almiron doubled the lead at 26 minutes, although many argue it was an own goal.  By that point Manquillo had already been subbed out with an ankle injury, a subplot for the match it would turn out.

Not long after I texted Dennis that this line up might not be the strongest defensively, Minamino cut the deficit to one.  Minutes later, Callum Wilson was down with a hamstring injury.  But Southampton proceeded to gift Newcastle a third goal in first half stoppage time.

Early in the second half, a Magpie foul meant that James Ward-Prowse was going to get a free kick.  I had barely finished texting Dennis that this was scary situation, when Ward-Prowse blasted the kick past Darlow.  Barely a minute later, Jeff Hendrick earned himself a second yellow and Newcastle went down a man at 49 minutes.  Let the heroic defending commence.  After almost 30 minutes of that, the situation got even worse, as Fabian Schar went down with a knee injury.  Having used all their subs, two for the injuries already noted, Newcastle would now play the last 15 minutes or so two men down.  Let the even more heroic defending begin.  One Newcastle wag suggested that they were really playing with eight, since Joelinton was on the pitch and he doesn't do defense well.  But somehow they survived.  The full-time whistle was a relief and so were the three points.  

The damage is serious though.  Manquillo is probably out several weeks with ligament issues.  Wilson will miss eight weeks with his hamstring and Schar may be done for the season with damaged knee ligaments.  Krafth will be able to cover for Manquillo, although it would have been nice to still have Yedlin.  Clark will be available again while Lascelles and Fernandez will likely be back, if not this week, then next.  We have bodies to put in Wilson's place but they simply aren't as good.  Personally I'd rather see Dwight Gayle get some extended time but we'll probably see a lot of Joelinton or Andy Carroll.

With the three points, Newcastle's relegation chance is down to 20%.  Way too soon to be declaring them safe, especially with the Wilson injury.  I do need to credit management with the acquisition, if only temporary, of Joe Willock.  We desperately needed more attacking punch in the mid-field and this guy can provide it.  Feel better than a few weeks ago.

Is It Over?

Foden:Alisson, my aim is true
apologies to Elvis Costello

That thud you heard was Liverpool's chances of repeating landing hard.  Like Hans Gruber falling off of Nakatomi Towers hard.  For a while their critical contest with Man City was close, even 1-1 until late.  Then three City goals in 11 minutes, aided in part by some mistakes by Liverpool keeper Alisson, and the game was over.  Foden's laser (see right) was the final blow.  Certainly Liverpool's chances of repeating are over.  And so too may be anyone else's chance of catching Man City. They lead by five and everyone in the chase pack seems to have holes.  

Done and Dusted by Lunchtime

Dennis and I rediscovered the joys of having your side play early on Saturday and win.  Aston Villa took a 1-0 win from Arsenal in the 7:30 match.  Villa are undefeated when they score first and keep a clean sheet.  Great strategy.  And Newcastle Southampton was the 10 am match so by 11:59 we were back in the bunk house with three points each.  Life is good.

Spurs Fight Their Way Out of A Paper Baggies

Hat tip to Michael B for that one.  Took forever for Tottenham to get on the board and put away a sinking West Brom side.  Still, it had a number of positives that include 1) ending a three-match losing streak 2) marking the return of Harry Kane from injury 3) featuring goals from both Kane and Son.  That slump put a big dent in Spurs' Champions League prospects but probably too early to count them out if they are reasonably healthy. Also, after the two Manchester sides, things are pretty tight for third and fourth.

When A Draw Feels Like A Loss

DCL snatches a draw from the jaws of defeat

That would be when you enter the 95th minute with a 3-2 lead and come away with a 3-3 draw, Man United did with Everton.  Man United up 2-0 at half but Everton drew level seven minutes into the second half.  McTominay puts away what felt like a game winner at 70 minutes before Calvert-Lewin steals a point with a toe poke at match end.  A great match, probably more fun for the neutral and Everton fans.

What Is Wrong With People?

I know we sometimes get on Mike Dean's case here at BFS.  But this is beyond the pale.  I did see the Soucek call and texted Dennis "can't wait to see this one overturned on appeal," which it was.  So what?  There is no excuse for on-line abuse in the first place and doing so over something as unimportant as a referee's call is mind-boggling.  This is why we can't have nice things.

A Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Jeff H:  9/12 for BFS this match week [referring to points earned by Newcastle, Aston Villa, Spurs and Man United]

Steve: 10/12? Man United got a point, just doesn't feel like it [Jeff H apparently  subconsciously treating United's thrilling 3-3 draw with Everton a loss rather than a draw]

Jeff H:  Right, 3+3+3+1=10.  Thanks for straightening that out.

Steve:  There are three kinds of people in the world: Those who are good with numbers and those who aren't

Dennis:  There are two kinds of people in the world: Those who can infer from incomplete data

 

Bruce Going To Outlast Lampard and Arteta?

Mildly surprised that Mikel Arteta's odds in the sack race - after Arsenal's consecutive losses to Wolves and Aston Villa - only have him sixth in line right now.  The top eight are listed here.  Relegation Avoidance Specialist Sam Allardyce has jumped to the head of the class and his streak of saving teams may be over.  Even with six points from the last three matches, Steve Bruce remains firmly in the mix.

On the relegation front, Spurs and Chelsea did the job, barely, with wins over West Brom and Sheffield United, respectively.  Fulham and Burnley grabbed a single point each with draws against West Ham and Brighton.  According to 538, the Baggies  (98%) and the Blades (90%) look like sure things at this moment.  Fulham are at 72% chance so time is running out on them too.

Concussion Protocol   

The EPL has implemented, at least temporarily, a new substitution policy where concussions may be involved.  The policy is outlined here.  Basically, teams will be allowed two extra subs in situations where a concussion is even suspected.  To even things out (and reduce chances of "gaming the system?"), when a concussion sub is made, the other team is given an additional sub too.  Concussion subs can be used regardless of whether a team has used up its three "normal" subs.  I suppose this creates the possibility of seven subs for each team in a game; each team has used all three regular subs, then each team gets two concussions.

The new rule went into effect last Saturday.  Schar should have grabbed his head instead of his knee.

FA Cup Was Good Too

Won't get into details here but hope you saw the classic back and forth, extra time 5-4 classic between Everton and Tottenham.  Michael B didn't seem too disappointed, texting, "now we can focus on winning the league."  Man United's extra time 1-0 win over West Ham was pretty good too.  The Hammers could have used Jesse Lingard, who they have on loan from MUN.  To clarify, Lingard was ineligible to play, not because he is prohibited from playing against his parent club but because he had already appeared in FA Cup matches this season for another team (in this case MUN) - "cup tied" in the lingo.  Kind of like handling the ball while scoring a goal while offside - which infraction is enforced?  

Another Sequential Match Week

No overlapping games this weekend so those with nothing better to do can see all matches live.  Feature of the week is Man City vs Tottenham as the NBC match Saturday at 12:30.  Most of the league is hoping for Spurs to slow that City train down; no one is holding their breath. The other key match is 3rd vs 4th when Leicester host Liverpool; that's at 7:30 Saturday morning (NBCSN) but worth getting up early for. 

Newcastle have a fun trip to Stamford Bridge to face Chelsea (Monday 3pm on NBCSN - great, we can wait all weekend for the thrashing).  Though the Blues haven't exactly been killing it lately, they will likely have enough to deal with the Magpies.  Aston Villa travel to Brighton (Saturday 3 pm Peacock) for a match that I would have tipped as a solid win for Villa; not so fast says 538, with Brighton a slight favorite at 37/36/27.

Doesn't look like a promising weekend for the bottom three, with Fulham at Everton (Sunday 2pm on Peacock), West Brom hosting Man United (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN) and Sheffield United traveling to West Ham (Monday at 1 pm on NBCSN).  

We wonder how safe Arteta will be if they don't beat Leeds at home; that's Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Rounding out the matchweek are Crystal Palace - Burnley (10am Saturday on NBCSN) and Southampton - Wolves at 7 am Sunday morning on Peacock (you may get a note from your doctor to skip that one).  

Throw in a couple of midweek make up matches on Wednesday including Burnley - Fulham at 1 and Everton - Man City at 3:15.  The former offers Burnley the chance to dramatically improve their survival chances.  The latter may be just another nail in the EPL title race.

Not enough mid-week stuff for you?  No worries! Champions League action on Tuesday and Wednesday while Europa League resumes on Thursday.  

10-day forecast is for cold temps, snow or wintry mix and lots of football viewing.