Not Much To Miss

Not much happened in the last two weeks.

Meet The New Boss (apologies to The Who)

Pochettino: Definitely not the same as the old boss

Mauricio Pochettino and US Soccer and Chelsea finally worked out the contract details and he will be the new USMNT manager.  His first matches with the team will be the next set of friendlies on 10/12 (Panama) and 10/15 (Mexico).  Poch is not the first "foreigner" to manage the US team but arguably he's the highest profile manager the team has ever had.  Though I remain skeptical about how much he'll be able to accomplish in the larger infrastructure that is the chaos of US soccer, I'm excited to see how it works out.

The USMNT lost 2-1 to Canada and drew 1-1 with New Zealand in this international break.  The NZ goal sounds and looks like an unlucky break in the 89th minute.  

The Report Of My Death Was An Exaggeration

Sean Dyche did not get sacked.  In fact, two factors weigh against a quick sacking.  First, the club will be hard pressed to afford the £4 million payout Dyche would be owed upon sacking.  Second, Everton are in the midst of a possible ownership change and that new ownership will want to make the choice of manager.  As detailed here, that sale will neither be quick or sure to happen. So Dyche may have some time to save his position.

Must Go Faster

Though most of the MLS was off for the international break, the Union still lost ground in the playoff chase.  That's because DC United bested Chicago 2-1, moving them past both Atlanta and Philadelphia into the last playoff spot. Going into the weekend, the Union sit in 11th.  

A Nose For The Game?

Kerlon uses the seal dribble in a U17 match vs Uruguay

BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W sends along this article about the man who brought the "seal dribble" to mainstream soccer.  You can see Kerlon employing the technique here.  Interesting story, including the story about how the writer eventually tracked Kerlon down.  The article does not address this but there is plenty on the internet about how the technique is now "banned" by current rules.  That is not exactly the case.  There is no specific reference to seal dribbing in the laws.  There is however this definition of dangerous play:

Playing in a dangerous manner is any action that, while trying to play the ball, threatens injury to someone (including the player themself) and includes preventing a nearby opponent from playing the ball for fear of injury.

Since there is no way to safely challenge for the ball, using the technique when opposing players are close would qualify as playing in a dangerous manner.  Kerlon's long history as the subject of violent tackles does highlight how it can be dangerous. Some have also suggested that the technique, in certain circumstances, could be considered unsporting behavior as a form of taunting (looking at you Richarlison).  

 

Back to Work

A North London derby highlights the EPL return from the international break.  Tottenham will host Arsenal at 9 am on Sunday on USA.  Even at home and with the Gunners missing Declan Rice (suspension) and probably Odegaard (injury on international duty), Spurs are slight underdogs.  At least it looks competitive.  The rest of the fixture list is less promising.

A struggling Man United is still a strong favorite over host Southampton in the early Saturday match.  Of the 10 am contests, only Fulham -West Ham looks to offer the prospects of a competitive match.  Elsewhere, the home sides Brighton (Ipswich), Crystal Palace (Leicester), Liverpool (Nottingham Forest) and Man City (Brentford) look like good bets.  Palace - Leicester is the USA choice, the others are on Peacock.  The feature 12:30 NBC game is Aston Villa hosting Everton; anything less than a win for the Villans would have to be viewed as a disappointment.  There's a "bonus" Saturday contest at 3 pm on Peacock featuring surprising Bournemouth versus Chelsea; even at home, this would be a true "surprise" if the Cherries get anything out of this one.

Off some good performances as a sub and for Italy, expect
 Tonali to be in the starting XI for Newcastle (Getty Images)

Sunday has the aforementioned derby at 9 followed by Wolves - Newcastle at 11:30 on USA.  I like the Magpies' chances here but note that they haven't won at Molineux since February 2017, when both sides were in the 2nd tier Championship League.  In the six contests since then, the Magpies have drawn five and lost one.  

The Union will continue their quest for playoff berth with a tough contest away at Miami (7:30 Saturday behind Apple's double paywall).  They'll follow that up with another tough one at NYCFC (at MLS worst venue - Yankee Stadium) on Wednesday, also behind Apple's double paywall.

Midweek Champions League football returns with 18 matches Tuesday through Thursday.  Tuesday you can watch Aston Villa at Young Boys at 12:30 then tune in for Milan-Liverpool at 3 pm.  Wednesday has Man City hosting Inter at 3 pm.  Thursday is Arsenal at Atalanta, also at 3 pm.  The new Champions League format is explained here.

Except for some international breaks, it's gonna be a packed fall.

That Went Well

Except for my Football Manager Forest Green side losing 0-1 on a late goal to Tottenham, that was an amazing sequence of results for the BFS sides.   

Can You Say Against the Run of Play?

The statistics and my eyes tell me Spurs pushed Newcastle all over the pitch on Sunday but the Magpies somehow walked away with a 2-1 win.  Possession was 66/34, shots 20/9 and shots on target were 6/3.  However, note that xG was 1.62 - 1.27 favor the Magpies and that Newcastle did score all three goals - Dan Burn with the OG for Spurs only tally.  The game winner came on a lightning quick counter started by Joelinton, continued by Murphy and finished by Isak - we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Not to look a gift two (three?) points in the mouth, but Newcastle should be careful not to read too much into the win.  Spurs were missing Richarlison and Solanke, who could have easily improved their finishing.  They put some shots in on Pope and generally dominated play.  The glass is half-full contingent points out that the Magpie counterattack was very incisive and despite a makeshift center back pairing of Burn and Krafth, they didn't allow that many good scoring chances. 

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.   

We Weren't Expecting You Mr. Bond

AR Ian Hissin: Figures I get hurt doing a Newcastle match

Newcastle's injury woes over the last 18 months have been well-documented.  Thoughts that maybe it is something in the water gained traction when AR Ian Hissin blew out a quad in the 18th minute of the Newcastle - Spurs contest.  He was unable to continue and was replaced by the fourth official whose name was Bond, Darren Bond.  The announcer nailed it with the quote, "we weren't expecting you Mr. Bond."  For Hissin's sake, we hope he didn't have his thigh treated by the Newcastle physios. 

Ollie Who?

Probably more work than they would like but Aston Villa got a 2-1 victory over Leicester at King Power Stadium.  This is a match of Midland rivals, although neither side considers it a derby.  Snarly enough anyway.  The bad news was Leicester were in it all the way and that Ollie Watkins' scoring drought continues.  At least he put some shots on goal but he is not burying chances like he used to.  The good news is that Jon Dhuran John Duran Jhon Duran is scoring with some regularity.  His header, which turned out to be the game winner, can be seen here. Villa will need Watkins to find his form but it's helpful that someone is picking up the slack.

Chris Kavanaugh Looks To Wipe Out Shithousery One Yellow Card At A Time

I count eight yellows in the testy but interesting 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Brighton.  At least four were related to some form of shithousery.  The one that really mattered though was Kavanaugh's decision to show Declan Rice yellow for delaying the restart of the free kick, seen here.  This got the extra attention as it was Rice's second yellow of the day so he was gone.  Kavanaugh took some lumps on the internet, though he did have his backers on this one.  We loved it.  Aside from the fact that it made the second half way more competitive and interesting to watch, we're in favor of any sanctions for that kind of nonsense.  We heard the argument about the mythical higher threshold for a second yellow, blah, blah, blah.  He knew exactly what he was doing.  Also, though I don't think it affected the decision, Rice's theatrical flop made me even more comfortable with the call.   More please.

Like Taking Candy From The Toffees

Fans outside Goodison Park wait for word on Sean Dyche

Whatever kind of bad day you had, there's no way it matches the disaster that befell Sean Dyche and Everton.  Comfortably up 2-0 at home against Bournemouth through 86 minutes, they saw the Cherries pour through three goals in less than 10 minutes to snatch all three points.  You can see all the carnage here.  Sean Dyche is under fire for Everton's terrible start - three losses and a goal differential of minus eight.  Still, it's too soon to sack him, right?  Maybe not, as there appears to be momentum to bring back David Moyes.

The Dreaded Vote Of Confidence

Speaking of managers under the microscope. After losses to Brighton and Liverpool, Erik ten Hag has gotten the backing of club managment.  As expressed by CEO Omar Berrada:

"Do we still believe in Erik? Absolutely. We think Erik is the right coach for us and we're fully backing him."

 But I also saw an article that said they already know who they will pick to replace when if he is sacked (Thomas Tuchel).  Sounds like dead man walking to me.

Addition By Not Subtracting - Another Look at the Newcastle Transfer Window

Certainly, Newcastle's transfers during this window were underwhelming.  The only incoming player expected to see much time - assuming he stays healthy - is left back Lloyd Kelly.  I guess technically Lewis Hall is considered a transfer in but that was really converting a loan into a permanent acquisition.  On the flip side, we did not lose Isak, Guimaraes, or Gordon.  Sondro Tonali will be effectively an addition given that he missed all but a few early games last year on suspension.  And we will get Botman and Laschelles back in January.  Botman in 2022-23 form would be a big lift.  Are those positives enough to outweigh not getting a center back and a winger?   Probably not, but the failure to land any marquee signings may not be disaster.

We shouldn't underestimate how the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) factored into the difficult summer window.  Oversimplifying a bit, the PSR limits the loss a team can take over a three-year period to about $134 million, or an average of about $45 million per year.  In other words, the rules dictate how much you can lose, not how much you can spend.  So, the higher your revenue base, the more you can spend.  This is why the comments after Newcastle were acquired by the Saudi PIF that they were simply going to spend their way to the title were so off base.  Take a look at the chart below. 

Since Loss = Revenue - Expenses, this is the relevant constraining factor in a team's ability to spend.  It doesn't matter that the PIF is worth $1 billion or whatever; the PSR says they can only loss $45 million per year.   At £250 million in revenue a year, Newcastle are near the top but look at the gap between them and the top six sides.  Most of the sides above them have at least two times as much revenue to work with.  Probably just a coincidence that the top six by revenue were the ones who were ready to establish a break away Champions League a few years ago.

I'm not saying there's not an advantage to having a well-heeled ownership, as that will affect the willingness of a club to sustain losses within the allowable limits.  But the likelihood that there will be losses is driven by revenue, not net worth.  That is, the side most likely to get the marquee signing with the $10 million annual salary ain't Bournemouth.  So all those worried that Newcastle would use that Arab money to take over the EPL can rest easy.  Yes, they have a financial advantage over all the clubs below them in that chart but nothing that threatens the top six.

Was that a rant?  I didn't think it was a rant.  Maybe it was a rant.

Treading Water Beats Drowning

The Union put up a good performance against the Red Bulls in Harrison NJ on Saturday night and were also greatly helped by the woodwork.  Uhre put them up in the fourth minute on a goal (seen here) that looked suspiciously soft but was probably just an accurate shot off the right foot to the left corner of the goal.  Baribo continued his hot form and doubled the lead at 14 minutes.  That would be all the scoring for the night, though the Red Bulls would hit the woodwork on numerous occasions.  I think the Union had a least one off the post too.  Many of the stats favor the Red Bulls but xG has the Union at 3.1-2.1.  This might be one of those where "you create your own luck?"

The bad news is that all the three unexpected points did was keep them from falling any further behind in the playoff chase as Atlanta also won.  The good news is that Toronto lost so they are now within reach as well.  This still looks like a difficult struggle.

A Good Week For Football Manager?

Except for a smattering of MLS fixtures, most leagues will be quiet this week for the international break.  For the USMNT there will be a couple of friendlies against Canada and New Zealand.  The team will be under the direction of interim manager Mikey Varas as the signing of Pochettino has not been completed yet.  

European countries will begin the latest installment of the Nations League, explained in more detail here.  I have labeled this competition - perhaps unfairly - as friendlies on steroids.  For some of the lesser lights, a good performance in the Nations League can be a back door entry into the 2026 World Cup so it's not completely meaningless.

Still, this might be a week for me to get in some extra Football Manager matches.

Every Week Can't Be Amazing

Hmm, definitely not as much fun as last week.

Newcastle Flub Another Bite at the Cherries

The Magpies started brightly enough against Bournemouth away on Sunday but after about 20 minutes they looked like the second best team on the pitch.  They went in at halftime deservedly down 1-0.  Fortunately Gordon was able to convert an excellent cross from Barnes to level things in the 77th minute, (seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment) and Newcastle looked like they were going to be lucky and take home a point.  Then they got even luckier.  Bournemouth were set to grab all three points after Ouattara headed in a cross from a corner in the 92nd minute.  VAR Tim Robinson chalked off the goal, saying the ball had gone in off Ouattara's arm.  As discussed in more detail below, I thought this was a harsh decision and Newcastle were totally lucky to get the draw.

This marks the fifth straight league match in which Newcastle have been unable to beat the Cherries.  Without trashing Bournemouth too much, that's not a side that should be such a challenge to a top six team.  Unless of course, you're not a top six team.

The Magpies continued their string of unimpressive performances against lower table teams in a mid-week 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest in the second round of the League Cup.  They did have a solid first half but went in at half leading just 1-0.  Forest got the equalizer at 50 minutes and really looked the better side in the second half.  Newcastle will advance after winning the shoot out 4-3.  A bright spot was the return of Sandro Tonali after his 10-month suspension and he did impress on both sides of the pitch.  

Villans Were Less Lucky

The scoresheet says it was an 0-2 loss to Arsenal but I thought Aston Villa deserved something from the match.   Other than possession, the stats were remarkably event; xG was 1.26-1.16 favor Aston Villa. It was listed as the second least fair final score of the week.  The most troubling aspect was that Ollie Watkins, arguably the most reliable foot in the EPL the last two years, missed two big chances and eventually got subbed out.  Also, did they hire some Newcastle physios?  I saw a bunch of players go down, though it looks like Cash is the only one out for this week.

Random and Incomplete Observations

Crushed by advertising hoarding was not in the job description

- We did suggest Man United was going to have their hands full with Brighton and the Seagulls did come away with a 2-1 win

- The scoresheet says 6-2 Chelsea over Wolves but xG says it was 1.98-1.79 favor Wolves; what the hell happened there?  I watched the highlights (first half must have been the best 51 minutes of EPL action this year) and don't fully understand why the Chelsea xG is that low.

- A Crystal Palace ball boy was nearly crushed when exuberant West Ham fans pushed against the advertising hoarding after Soucek had just put the Hammers up 1-0 in a tight match.  Kudos to the players for reacting quickly to the situation and the boy wasn't hurt badly

- Also in the Palace - West Ham match, we had this hilarious incident in which Paqueta believes that the ball has been kicked and moves so he rushes in to steal it.  Rob Jones is having none of it but if you look at the video closely, you'll hear the whistle to proceed and see the ball kicked and move, even if it may not have been intentional.  Paqueta was clearly within his rights to go for the ball

Clear and Obvious Errors By VAR?

Directly from the IFAB publication

After a quiet opening week, Bournemouth's disallowed goal against Newcastle has the internet fuming again.  David Coote signalled for a goal on the field but Tim Robinson says it's a "factual handball" and Coote isn't even sent to the monitor to overrule his own call.  You can see the video here.  Before proceeding, see the illustration provided by IFAB as to how far down the shoulder is not considered a handball.  When the law was revised we heard a lot about the "t-shirt line" but the language says:

For the purposes of determining handball offences, the upper boundary of the arm is in line with the bottom of the armpit.

The phrase caught on probably because it was a more convenient benchmark but it is misleading.

Is that clearly and obviously below the armpit?

I have done a 360 on this one.  Live, I was certain that Bournemouth had been screwed.  Then, after looking at the IFAB illustration and the photos, I started thinking this was probably the correct call.  But, after looking at the enlarged photo (see left), I don't think the call on the field was a clear and obvious error.  There's no definitive picture as to where the ball actually hits Ouattara.  It's certainly very likely that it was handling but it's also possible the ball hit the top of his shoulder.  Better to let the call on the field stand. 

If you let the video above run to the end you'll also see Joelinton's clothes lining of the Bournemouth keeper.  Geez, I hate when guys on my team do stuff like that.  Live I was certain it was a red card but on the replay it looks like the initial contact was below the neck and yellow was probably correct.  However, coming seconds after the disallowed goal,  if I were Bournemouth, I might have lost my shit at that point.  One of their assistants did and was shown red.  

One more incident to discuss on the VAR.  On Chelsea's second goal, the play started with a goal kick in which the ball was still moving when the keeper kicked it.  As explained here, that play was not reviewable by VAR.  I found no satisfactory answer as to why this is the case.  This would also apply to a situation in which a player scores on a free kick after moving the ball from the spot the referee designated.  That seems like a totally logical use of VAR to me but...

Union Clinch Berth in Next Year's US Open Cup

As in, by losing the third place Leagues Cup match to Colorado, the Union will not make next year's CONCACAF Champions League and therefore lose their exemption from participating in the US Open Cup.  This isn't necessarily a bad thing.  Besides, as discussed in the next section, they have a lot more important things to worry about.

Baribo won the Golden Boot in Leagues Cup
 John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

They actually played pretty well against Colorado and technically didn't lose but drew 2-2 in regulation and came up short (well, way short) in the PK shootout.  They dominated the first half yet found themselves down 0-1 before Baribo (him again) scored twice before the half ended.  You can see both goals here; check out the header from Wagner to set up the first one.  Colorado leveled early in the second half and the Union didn't look like the same team in the second half.  The PK shootout didn't go well at all and was over after four kicks.  

The week didn't get any better as they fell 0-1 at home to Columbus on Wednesday.  Again, they played pretty well and were a bit unlucky to have several shots bounce off the woodwork.  But in the end it wasn't enough.  So they still sit in 10th, one point out of a playoff spot.

Exodus (apologies to Bob Marley)

The Union continue to leak talent.  The latest to depart is center back Damion Lowe, who is off to Saudi Arabia. He joins Carranza and Martinez as key components of the Union lineup who have left midseason.  Lowe is 31 and would have been a free agent at the end of the season but he was also key to the depth at center back.  As detailed by Jonathan Tannewald here, this exodus 1) isn't over yet 2) was fully expected and 3) probably should played out last winter rather than during this season.  We will be looking at a much different roster next year.

You're A Peein' Soccer Stars

Probably not good for one's aim

BFS Art Director Laura O sent along the photo (right).  In the comments section, somebody suggested that Lukaku's attempt was called back for offside anyway.  

Stick To Baseball?

BFS Business Consultant Jack W sends along this from The Wall Street Journal highlighting the trials and tribulations of the American investor group that owns Chelsea.  We have had our share poking fun at the limited results they've seen from all that transfer spending.  As the article points out, they look to have made some mistakes in judging talent.  We will quibble a little with the argument that a big roster doesn't make sense in a sport where you play 11 with five subs; how do you play everybody so they develop?  The answer is that you loan them out.  Often the team getting the player on loan will pay a fee and/or the salary of the player.  You get to see who pans out on someone else's dime.   

Let's Try This Again

Yeah, except Newcastle have a very tough match at home against Spurs so not holding my breath that everything will be alright.  Opta has way more confidence in the Magpies, listing them at 38% and Spurs at 37%, with 23% chance of a draw.  Sounds like a good one to check out - it's Sunday at 8:30 am on USA.

The weekend kicks off at 7:30 with Arsenal - Brighton on USA; this may be a rude awakening for the Seagulls.  There are five choices at 10 am.  The TV game is Everton - Bournemouth, which Opta thinks will be a very tight match.  We'll be going with Leicester - Aston Villa, hoping for a bounce back from the Villans.  Nottingham Forest - Wolves, Brentford - Southampton and Ipswich - Fulham are your other choices.  The Saturday 12:30 feature match is West Ham hosting Man City; even at home, the Hammers are big underdogs.  

Chelsea - Crystal Palace run at the same time as Newcastle - Spurs.  The late (11 am) Sunday contest between Man United and Liverpool is getting talked up as the match of the weekend but Liverpool look like heavy favorites.  That one is only on Peacock.

The Union's quest for playoff berth doesn't get any easier as they head up the NJ Turnpike to face the Red Bulls.  I know the club has had a lot of success against these guys in recent years but not sure that's relevant any more.  I would be thrilled with a point.

More Please

Despite some serious bumps along the way, the results played out very nicely for the BFS sides.

Butt, butt.  Two butt heads but only Schar gets red card

Newcastle opened sluggishly against newly promoted Southampton.  That looked to be a bigger problem after Schar got himself sent off for "violent" conduct in the 28th minute.  He had been clearly shoved from behind by Diaz, who was going to get a yellow for the action.  But Schar got up all aggrieved and made a forward motion with his head that connected with Diaz.  For my money, it looked like 2/3 Schar, 1/3 Diaz but Schar got the red; shithousery from Diaz but Schar just has to be smarter. You can see the play here.

So that changed the tone of the match and left me thinking a draw would be good.  Joe L Linton had other ideas.  Helped by an errant pass from keeper McCarthy, Isak fed him nicely in the middle of the box and the Brazilian buried the shot.  It would be the Magpies only shot on target all day and is this week's YouTubeableMoment. They spent the rest of the match mostly defending with 8-9 players behind the ball.  The stats tell the story well - shots 19/4, shots on target 4/1, possession 78/22 and xG 1.73-.36; xGScore has it as the most "unfair" result of the weekend.  

Maybe, but I'll score it as Newcastle 1 Shithousery 0.  One bad thing is that, since Newcastle had to play mostly defense, we didn't get a real sense of what this team has.  The good thing is we got three points in the opener.

The Correct Claret and Blue Won

Even if they were in white and light blue.  As hoped for, the West Ham - Aston Villa was a highly watchable match.  Also as hoped for, Aston Villa did well in a tricky opener against a decent side at home, coming away with a 2-1 win.  Stats were basically even.  Villa's early goal in the 4th minute was offset by a West Ham PK late in the half.  The game winner,  seen here, was a well-worked build-up and a nice finish from Jhon Duran.    

Random and Incomplete Observations From Week 1

- Michael B announced he no longer follows EPL after the 1-1 draw at Leicester

- A net transfer spend in 2024 of £80m may not be enough to get Chelsea back into the top six

- Are Everton in for another dragged out relegation battle (they lost 0-3 at home to Brighton)?

- Will Man United have buyer's remorse at keeping ten Hag?; they barely edged out Fulham at home with a late goal

In Any Medium, It's Still Football

So my dad was a real good sport as we worked our way through the Saturday schedule.  I think we also wowed him with the lengths we will go to follow the action.  Over the course of the day we watched one match directly on his TV, one streaming Peacock through my computer, one using Dennis's computer to watch the dvr that his future father-in-law made while watching live in Minnesota and concluded watching on Dennis's computer using MLS Season pass. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve: Emery, Lopetegui, Iraola and Arteta are having drinks at a bar.  They all leave together but get stuck in the doorway because they don't go one at a time.

Dennis: Why are you telling me this?

Steve: As a reminder that you shouldn't put all your Basques in one exit.

Shithousery: The Sequel

With the Newcastle nonsense fresh in our minds, we watched as the Liga MX side Matazlan went full-on shithousery early.  For me, a referee needs to be aware that a team has seen an opponent sent off in the last two matches.  Apparently referee Selvin Brown did not get the memo and was frequently duped by the flopping Canoneros.  It was so obvious that my dad, a novice viewer, picked up on it.  Things got worse as Baribo got a suspicious yellow in the 32nd minute, then an absolutely ridiculous straight red for nothing more than a coming together in the box on a corner kick.  The VAR sent Brown to the monitor but all he did was "downgrade" the nothingburger from a red to a yellow, which meant Baribo was gone. You can see the play here.

Just like Newcastle, the Union took quick advantage of the situation and scored despite being shorthanded.  Matazlan did equalize in the second half and the match went to penalty kicks.  Blake came up big a few times and the Union won 4-3 to advance to the semis.  Frankly, all I could think was "suck it Matazlan" because that was just embarrassing.  What a great day when shithousery is on the losing end two times. 

How Do You Say Yo La Tengo in French?  (apologies to Yo La Tengo)

An outgunned and outmanned (no Baribo, no Martinez) Union side fell 1-3 to Columbus in the Leagues Cup semis on Wednesday.  Threre were some good moments but in the end, that was about the right result.  They still have a chance to get something from the competition when they face Colorado on Sunday at Subaru Park.  A win there would get them a place in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.

Je ne parle pas anglais

Late substitutions in the match included new acquisition Danley Jean Jacques, a Haitian midfielder with good reviews.  He may turn out to be a good replacement for Jose Martinez.  There is a bit of a language barrier though.  Apparently someone had to translate Jim Curtin's final instructions to Danley before he entered the match.  Once there, he and Glesnes had a nasty collision as both tried to head the ball at the same time.  Glesnes was off briefly for concussion protocol but did return, hopefully no worse for the wear.  This does bring back memories of the never fully debunked story about Richie Ashburn and his communication issue with Elio Chacon; I believe the phrase Glesnes will need is "Je m'en occupe."

 

What Is To Be Done?

I'd say there are two things that could address the issue of shithousery.  First is simply better refereeing.  Trained referees are still too easily duped by theatrics.  Second, aggrieved players need to refrain from retaliating.  That was clearly the issue for Schar.  For Baribo, he could have probably avoided the first yellow but the second was clearly a referee mistake.  

Offside Revisited

In the Comments section last week, Anonymous (is that you Philip S?) noted that the offside law might be "undercooked."  A player standing in an offside position could be distracting to the defenders even if he makes no play on the ball.  I hear this often, mostly from defenders and keepers.  Heck, when I first started coaching I thought the rule was daft too.  How is the keeper supposed to ignore an attacker standing on the corner of the six yard box even if he's doing nothing?   The answer is, according to the laws of the game, you just are.  This begs two questions for  me. First, can the defender be sure that the attacker is in fact in an offside position?  It could be too close to know.  Second, how does the defender know that the referees will get it right?  VAR helps with the second question.  But, for better or worse, this is how the law is written and this issue is specifically addressed in the guidance provided.  Standing in an offside position may be distracting to the defenders but by itself is not considered being involved in active play.

More Please

Another week like last week would be okay by us.  Note that this is a Peacock weekend for the EPL, with only one fixture on USA. Things start with Brighton hosting Man United, which could be a very competitive match, possibly worth getting up at 7:30.  The schedulers have crowded five fixtures into the 10 am slot.  Probably can skip Man City hosting Ipswich; that was cruel to have the Tractor Boys open with Liverpool and Man City.  Southampton - Nottingham Forest could be a preview of the relegation battle; for us it will be another chance to boo Ben Brereton Diaz.  Crystal Palace - West Ham is not a bad choice either.  If he still followed the EPL, Michael B would be watching Spurs host Everton.  Your only other choice is Fulham - Leicester.

Diaz displays his only
attacking move

The feature TV game (USA not NBC for some reason) is Aston Villa hosting Arsenal.  The Villans are decided underdogs here but I think they will put up a good fight against the Gunners.

Three matches on Sunday.  We'll be taking in Bournemouth - Newcastle.  An appeal of Schar's red card seems unlikely, as does signing Guehi or any of the other potential transfer targets; thus, they could be shorthanded at centerback.  Still, the Magpies are prohibitive favorites.  Your other choice at 9 is Wolves - Chelsea.  The 11:30 match is Liverpool - Brentford, which doesn't seem all that appealing.

Though it's at the point where we don't Caraboa it yet, the EPL sides enter the Leagues Cup competition with mid-week matches.  Newcastle host Nottingham Forest on Wednesday.  

Two matches for the Union.  They host Colorado on Sunday, then turn right back around and renew their chase for a playoff berth as they face Columbus on Wednesday as the MLS regular season returns.  The Leagues Cup was a chance to forget for a little bit that the Union sit in 10th place with much work to do to make the playoffs. 

Let The Games Begin

Very nice of the IOC to wrap up their quadrennial spectacle before the EPL season started.  Would have put a massive strain on the DVR.

She Did It Her Way

Brazil definitely took it to the US in the first half of the gold medal match.  They had the better of the chances but Naeher came up big.  OTHO, good so see US weather that first half storm.  Swanson got them the goal they would need on a sweet pass from Albert.  There was some hint of offside but the goal correctly withstood review (see below). You can see the play as this week's easy choice for the YouTubeableMoment.  Squeaky bum time the rest of the way as the US never got a second goal.  Keeper Naeher would have to come up big again in stoppage time, seen here, to preserve the win.  The stats say a close match with slight edge to Brazil.  60/40 possession, 10/9 on shots, shots on target 4/3, 1.41/1.15 on xG.  But in the end, the US did enough to get the gold.

So Hayes gets to point to the gold in response to critics of her team selection and subsitution strategy. As I said earlier, I would have preferred more squad rotation.  Brazil, notably, had extensively rotated their squad throughout the tournament but that didn't seem to help them.   Some are saying they had a lucky path to the gold.  She benefited from from Swanson's return and recent missteps by earlier managers.  Blah, blah, blah.  As Bill James once said, and maybe a frog could fly a plane if we only knew how to translate the instructions into "froggy."  You can make the argument that Hayes was lucky, not right, but the team is wearing gold medals so maybe her way was the right way.

Offside- Part XXIV

Pciture posted by Jonathan Tannenwald showing that
Swanson was in an onside position at the time of the pass

My exact words to Dennis at the time of  Swanson's goal were "I think she was on, the other was off."  By that I meant, that although Smith was in an offside position, she was not involved in active play and the goal would stand.  And it did.  Oy, but there was tons of misinformation that followed. I saw some say the play never went to VAR.  That is not correct.  Just because the center referee didn't go to the monitor didn't mean the play wasn't reviewed. [Ed. note: what did your 10th grade English teacher tell you about using triple negatives?] She didn't have to go to the monitor because she didn't need to - the onfield call was clearly correct.

Many were sure that Swanson was offside.  Tannenwald's picture (right) shows otherwise; the grain of the grass cutting means we don't have to worry about parallax error.  Others were convinced that the goal should have been chalked off because Smith was offside.  The picture does confirm that Smith was indeed in an offside position but if you follow the video you'll see she never touched the ball or interfered with the defenders.   Yeah but, but.  Not buts about it.  The IFAB website even has an FAQ on this exact situation:

An attacking team player in an offside position (A) runs towards the ball and a team-mate in an onside position (B) also runs towards the ball and plays it. The first player (A) does not touch the ball and does not impact any opponent’s ability to play or challenge for the ball. What is the referee’s decision? 

The referee allows play to continue as the attacking team player (A) has not committed an offside offence.

Substitute (A) with Smith and (B) with Swanson and you have the scenrio that played out for the goal.  It's only a controversial goal if you don't know the rules.

A League Of Our Own

Turns out the Leagues Cup is just like the EFL Caraboa Cup.  That is, we love to trash the concept until we find our team going deep into the tournament with a chance to win the whole thing, or at least get something out of it.  Which is exactly where we find the Union right now.  With wins over Montreal and Cincinnati, they are now in the quarterfinals and will take on Mazatlan on Saturday for a place in the semis.  Should they move past the Mexican club, they would face Columbus or NYCFC in the semi.  Even if they lose in the semis, there is still a third place match that offers a spot in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.

Baribo: Nine goals in the last six matches!

I did see the 2-0 win over Montreal on "free" Apple but am hard-pressed to remember much about it.  Baribo got a brace of stoppage time goals, one in each half.  The stats say that Montreal didn't threaten the Union goal all that much though they did have the better of possession.  I remember a key Blake save early but that he wasn't tested all that much otherwise.  

I followed the 4-2 over Cincinnati on radio.  With all those goals, Dave Leno was probably a little hoarse afterward.  This had classic Union written all over it.  Build a 2-0 lead, surrender a goal at 66 minutes, then the equalizer at 80 minutes.  Great, we're gonna lose on PKs.  Then, Quinn Sullivan to the rescue.  He set up Baribo just one minute after Cincinnati drew level (another brace for Tai!) then got one for himself at 84 minutes.  Blake (or as Leno calls him, Brickwall Blake) had to make a few more saves before this one was over but they did hold on for the somewhat improbable win.  

We love the Leagues Cup!

Handicapping the EPL

I gathered up some of the predictions found on line to create a composite chart of all the projections.  It was suppposed to be shown below but I'm on the road and the file is on my external hard drive sitting in Philadelphia.  If you could see it, you might notice that the average for each team creates four separate clusters with relatively clean breaks.  Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have their own cluster at 1, 2 and 3.  The next group (4th through 8th) looks like Newcastle, Man United, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Chelsea.  The abbreviated mid-table (9th-11th) is West Ham, Crystal Palace, and Brighton.  Then we have the relegation don't-wanna-bes (12th-16th) Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves and Brentford.  Then there are the clear relegation favorites (17th-20th) Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Ipswich.  

Also note there are some big ranges here.  Fulham show up between 10th and 19th and Bournemouth forecasts go from 10th to 18th.  And, Man United, Everton and Brighton have a range of seven.  Newcastle predictions aren't exactly tight either.  Frankly the 3 and 4 finishes seem highly unlikely to me; 5th to 8th sounds more realistic. That is especially after a relatively tepid summer transfer window for the Magpies.  They are on their third bid for Palace defender March Guehi, which would be a big acquisition.  Otherwise, they have made marginal improvements that don't say top four finish to me.  You can see all EPL transfers here.

Answer To Last Week's Puzzler

Assuming no one has been sacked, the correct answers are:

US Soccer Federation Has A Type?

Multiple sources are saying that Pochettino will be the new manager of the USMNT.  Hmm, are they thinking that hiring an ex-Chelsea manager worked well for the USWNT so let's try it for the men?  Dennis notes that Hayes was with the Blues for 12 years and won, like eight titles so maybe it's not exactly the same.  Color me skeptical but I guess it's a change in approach so maybe that's a good thing.

And We're Off

The season opens with me visiting my dad in New Hampshire.  The good news is that we have been working on him over the years and he is generally cool with watching soccer, especially when someone is there to explain what's happeing.

Week 1 is nicely spread out over four days.  The season kicks off with Man United hosting Fulham on Friday at 3 pm (USA).  You can rise early on Saturday to see Liverpool welcome Ipswich back in the top tier (7:30 on USA); Opta sees that as rude welcome, with Liverpool at 66% to win and 18% to draw.    Four to choose from at 10.  We will watch Newcastle open their campaign at Saint James' Park against Southampton.  Opta has this as one of the weekend's bigger mismatches and I hope they are correct.  USA went with Arsenal- Wolves, which looks like an even bigger blowout, with the Gunners at 76% to win and 14% to draw.  Thus, I would go with Everton - Brighton or Nottingham Forest - Bournemouth as more competitive choices.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is the battle of Claret and Blue, except only West Ham will be in those colors as Aston Villa will have to go with their away kit.  Good choice for the feature match.  The Hammers are slight favorites, likely reflecting little more than the home field advantage.

Two on Sunday with Brentford - Crystal Palace at 9 am on USA and then Chelsea vs Man City at 11:30 on NBC.  The later has the sound of an important fixture but not so much lately; Opta sees that 60% win for Man City, with Chelsea only at 19% for a win.  The week concludes with Leicester's return to the Premier League hosting Spurs.

Union are at home against Mazatlan.  Given that this match wasn't on the fixture list until Tuesday night and the stakes are a bit higher, we will be interested to see if the Union fans are outnumbered this time.

Oh to be in front of a TV now that EPL is here.

While We Were Away

Apparently the world went on without us. 

Sister Can You Spare A Sub?

Naeher says "nein"

The USWNT navigated the Olympic group stage just fine, then went to added extra time in 1-0 wins over Japan in the quarters and Germany in the semis.  The extra time goals came from Rodman and Smith but we'd be remiss in not mentioning Naehar's late save against Germany to preserve the win.

Emma Hayes's substitution protocol has drawn considerable attention, most of it unfavorable.  With the US guaranteed advancement to the knockout round and an unlikely confluence of results needed to deny them first place in the group, Hayes passed on a chance to rotate the lineup at all for the final group stage match. She made only one change for the Japan quarterfinal but that was driven by Coffey's suspension for yellow card accumulation.  She made no subs in regular time and only three in added extra time - and one of those was in the 121st minute.  Hayes did make two changes for the Germany quarterfinal and did use five subs throughout the course of the match.

Dennis and I discussed the difficulty in assessing the success or failure of Hayes's strategy.  Her view is that the US wouldn't have advanced if she had made liberal use of subs.  In her defense, she gets to point out they are in the gold medal match.  Even if they win that match, we're not sure that's the end of the discussion though.  We'll never know if they would have made it anyway with more substitutions.  More than one person has pointed out that unwillingness to put subs in could be very damaging to their morale and their long-term development.  What if the real cost of the strategy doesn't show up until future international competitions?  Of course, the answers to those questions are essentially unknowable.  I would have preferred she do the rotation for the final group stage match against Australia but I only manage a team on the computer.

Participation Trophy

The USMNT did almost exactly what was expected of them in Paris.  Lose to France, beat New Zealand and Guinea, bow out in the quarterfinals.  The 4-0 final to Morocco is slightly misleading as the score for 60 plus minutes was just 1-0 on a soft PK call.  But Morocco were clearly the better side.  It was fun to see Nathan Harriel have a solid tournament and watch Jack McGlynn and Paxton Aaronson make some contributions. 

The Dreaded Leagues Cup

Though my head was telling me an early exit from this silly competition would have been just fine, there I was at Subaru Park hoping for good results against Charlotte and Cruz Azul.  The 1-0 win over Charlotte was a snooze fest.  Attending the Cruz Azul will go down as one of my more interesting soccer experiences, as explained below.  The match itself was okay.  The Union were guaranteed advancement to the knockout phase and that showed in their early play.  Actually, they were outplayed for most of the match, and fully deserved to be trailing late.  Kudos to the team for not quitting and getting the equalizer late, a scruffy looking goal from Gazdag.  Though they lost the PK shootout, the 1-1 draw was enough to secure them first in the group and presumably a better draw in the knockout phase.  

Mi Subaru Park, Su Subaru Park

Representative of about 75% of fans on Sunday night

I have always wanted to see a match in Mexico and Sunday night I got the chance to do just that without leaving the comfort of Pennsylvania.  Say what?  So the Union were playing Cruz Azul in the group stage of the Leagues Cup.  Walking to the stadium it felt like an away game as Cruz Azul fans 1) outnumbered Union supporters and 2) were way more vocal.  Street vendors offering food and souvenirs were out in force, probably ten times more than usual.  The feeling continued in the stadium as the bi-lingual announcer did his best to make the Cruz Azul fans feel right at home, offering a full-throated introduction of the Cruz Azul starting XI.  We didn't really need the goal to know we were outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1.  The goal just made it more obvious, especially when the scorer and time of goal were announced with a lusty GOALLLL!!!! that would have made Andres Cantor proud.  I swear it felt like Union management was treating this as a Friendship Tournament.  

There was one part that we thought strange and didn't really understand until the next day.  At certain breaks in the match, they would play what we thought were Mexican commercial jingles over the PA.  Wow, really making them feel at home.  Uh, not so much.  What was actually happening was that a number of Cruz Azul fans were doing the infamous homophobic chant on goal kicks and the stadium officials were trying to drown it out with the music so it wouldn't be obvious on TV.  Now I am not amused.  There is a protocol for this and it does not include playing music over the chant:

In addition, match organizers are required to implement a new three-step protocol introduced by FIFA in 2019 for any discriminatory incidents:

• Step 1: Match stoppage and warning to fans
• Step 2: Match suspension and players moved to benches
• Step 3: Abandonment of the match

Bob Newhart has this right answer for these 
offensive chants on goal kicks

We will probably get some lame excuse that this policy only applies to international matches.  Oh, and while we're at it, why not take action on the "you suck asshole" chant that Union fans employ in the same situation.  Enough already, it's not funny.

Fortunately, with the result (by winning the PK shootout Cruz Azul also advance) neither group of fans left the stadium disgruntled.  What I don't understand is how I passed up on the churros.  I mean, fried dough, how can you go wrong?  

Who's Your Gaffer?

Unfortunately, many of the progniators pronounhaters people who predict things have not weighed in with their projections for the season.  But, we do have an exercise to help prepare you for the new season.  Significant post-season turnover and the unfamiliarity with the promoted teams means a host of new managers.  I could only name 11 from scratch.  We'll make it slightly easier, giving you all the names and letting you see if you can match them with their teams.

Answers next week.

Also, a few procedural type changes that you can read about here.  I didn't know they were limited to just three subs warming up at a time.  I'm used to seeing the whole Union bench head to east end of Subaru Park to warm up.  The plan to allow 30 seconds as the natural time between when a goal is scored and the restart should reduce stoppage time by an average of about 1:30 per game given the average goals per game of 3.28.   

A few other changes are noted here.  The move to semi-automated offside calls isn't scheduled to take effect until after the autumn international break but that could help on those lengthy VAR delays.  The points related to VAR read more like a mission statement than specific reforms but okay.  They are ditching the "winter break," which consisted of one weekend off in January.  And I'm sure we're all pumped that teams will now be required to announce their starting XI 75 minutes before kick-off as opposed to the previous 60 minutes.  

Wrapping Up Summer Break

France and Spain will play for the men's gold medal today at 12 (USA I think).  The women's gold medal match between the US and Brazil is Saturday at 11 (USA).  There was an extra day of rest between the semis and the final but figure both teams are tired.  I did see a few of the Brazil matches and they prove the exception to my belief that shithousery is significantly less prevalent in the women's  game.  Expect an ugly match.

The Union drew CF Montreal for the round of 32 knockout stage in the Leagues Cup.  My phone says I have tickets to this contest but the weather forecast may have other ideas.  Rain, wind, thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes.  We'll see.

EPL is a week away.

 

What To Do While Waiting for EPL and MLS

Apologies to those who read the early edition of last week's blog and didn't know the Union were actually playing Nashville in an MLS game on Saturday, not Charlotte in a Leagues Cup game.  Dennis didn't find out until a friend at the match texted him, asking if Dennis saw a replay on Uhre's BFS early in the first half and whether the call was legit.  That prompted this week's:

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Most Assuredly Did

Steve: You were supposed to be watching live but weren't because of the mistake in the blog? Heads will roll.

Dennis: Exactly.  The whole system is in shambles.

Those who did tune in saw another respectable performance from the Union.  The 3-0 final is a bit (a lot?) misleading though.  The U were the better side in the first half and basically deserved the 2-0 lead on a brace from Gazdag.  The second half was more in Nashville's favor.  There was one off the crossbar and then a solid save from Blake that kept the two goal cushion.  Had either of those gone in, the game might have played out differently.  Gazdag got his hat trick late on a sloppy play by Nashville in their own box to make the match look like the rout that it definitely wasn't. We'll make the collective highlights of Gazdag's three goals this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nashville had better possession (56/44) and outshot the U 20/19.  But the U finishing was more clinical has shots on target were 10/3 and xG was 3.2/1.8.

At 6'5" with speed to burn, is Adeniran a target striker or fast striker?
He's both

A top four finish is pretty much out of the question and barring big collapses from NYCFC, Charlotte and Orlando, making the top seven is a long shot too.  But getting the 8th or 9th slot for the play-in game and a spot in the playoffs is easily within reach.  Of course, so is last place.  I'm also thinking that Martinez has been as critical to the recent turnaround as Blake.  The addition of Sam Adeniran, who had a decent shift in his first appearance, gives us some depth up front that we were missing.  I am sticking with last week's optimism.  

Injury Update

Several concerning moments at Subaru Park but so far no serious fallout.

Slight bruising that will not affect viewing

Andre Blake - Sat down with some sort of issue with his "good" knee but was able to continue and
made some key saves.  Note however that late in the match, Glesnes was taking the goal kicks.

Jose Martinez - Suffered some sort of leg injury late, soldiered on for a little but was eventually substituted

Steve - Spectactor walking in the row behind him fell and smashed Steve's arm into the top of the seat.  He was able to continue watching and is listed as probable for this Saturday.

Things To Do As We Wait for EPL and MLS

Listed in no particular order

1) Watch for developments in the choice of USMNT manager - Names continue to fly all over the place.  The top domestic choices appear to be Cherundolo, Nancy and Curtin.  Other options include any unemployed big name foreign manager.

2) Watch for developments in the choice of English national team manager - Applications are due by August 2nd.  Howe, Potter and Lampard are the most frequently heard domestic names while Klopp, Pochettino, and Tuchel are mentioned as well.

3) Watch the men's Olympic soccer tournament - The tournament is essentially a U-23 affair, with each team limited to three players born before 1/1/2001.  There are four groups of four with each team playing the others in their group once.  The top two in each group advance to the quarterfinals.  Semi-finals are Monday 8/5, the bronze medal game is Thursday 8/8 and the final is Friday 8/9.

The betting odds like France, Argentina and Spain.  The US odds are very long, though they do look likely to make it out of the group stage.  The US team does feature two current Union players (Jack McGlynn and Nathan Harriel) and a former Union player (Paxton Aaronson).  Their group stage matches are France (Wednesday 7/23 at 3 pm), New Zealand (Saturday 7/27 at 1 pm) and Guinea (Tuesday 7/30 at 1 pm).

4) Watch the women's Olympic soccer tournament - The women's tournament does not have the age restrictions so is more like a true world championship.  There are three groups of four with each team playing the others in their group once.  The top two in each group, plus the two best third-place teams make it to the knockout phase.  Ah yes, the old group stage to eliminate just one-third of the field format.  Semi-finals are Tuesday 8/6, bronze medal game is Friday 8/9 and the final is Saturday 8/10.

The oddsmakers like the US, followed by Spain and France.  However, I've seen several pick France over the US, including The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald.

5) Watch the Leagues Cup (only if you're desparate?) - My favorite quote with respect to this competition comes from Tannenwald, who notes that the competition is: 

with conquering hero Lionel Messi sidelined by an ankle injury, perhaps an event widely derided as a cash grab and will be properly exposed. 

Sounds about right.  Very unfortunate timing for the Union, who may have found some consistency to their game but now don't have a league match for five weeks.  A possible fun aspect is that we might get to see more of Cavan Sullivan.

6) Spend an inordinate amount of time at datamb comparing players.  For example, Aston Villa had to sell Douglas Luiz to meet financial regulations but have now signed Amadou Onana.  The radar graph (left) provides insight on how the two players differ.  Off that chart, we might conclude that Villa have traded some attacking skills for defending skills, though several have mentioned that Onana's numbers may reflect the philosophy of Sean Dyche and that we might see a different Onana under Emery.  Anyway, the site is good for endless hours of timewasting in-depth analysis.

With those suggestions, we will sign off until August 9th, when we will return with a look at the upcoming EPL season.