That Went Well

Except for my Football Manager Forest Green side losing 0-1 on a late goal to Tottenham, that was an amazing sequence of results for the BFS sides.   

Can You Say Against the Run of Play?

The statistics and my eyes tell me Spurs pushed Newcastle all over the pitch on Sunday but the Magpies somehow walked away with a 2-1 win.  Possession was 66/34, shots 20/9 and shots on target were 6/3.  However, note that xG was 1.62 - 1.27 favor the Magpies and that Newcastle did score all three goals - Dan Burn with the OG for Spurs only tally.  The game winner came on a lightning quick counter started by Joelinton, continued by Murphy and finished by Isak - we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.

Not to look a gift two (three?) points in the mouth, but Newcastle should be careful not to read too much into the win.  Spurs were missing Richarlison and Solanke, who could have easily improved their finishing.  They put some shots in on Pope and generally dominated play.  The glass is half-full contingent points out that the Magpie counterattack was very incisive and despite a makeshift center back pairing of Burn and Krafth, they didn't allow that many good scoring chances. 

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.   

We Weren't Expecting You Mr. Bond

AR Ian Hissin: Figures I get hurt doing a Newcastle match

Newcastle's injury woes over the last 18 months have been well-documented.  Thoughts that maybe it is something in the water gained traction when AR Ian Hissin blew out a quad in the 18th minute of the Newcastle - Spurs contest.  He was unable to continue and was replaced by the fourth official whose name was Bond, Darren Bond.  The announcer nailed it with the quote, "we weren't expecting you Mr. Bond."  For Hissin's sake, we hope he didn't have his thigh treated by the Newcastle physios. 

Ollie Who?

Probably more work than they would like but Aston Villa got a 2-1 victory over Leicester at King Power Stadium.  This is a match of Midland rivals, although neither side considers it a derby.  Snarly enough anyway.  The bad news was Leicester were in it all the way and that Ollie Watkins' scoring drought continues.  At least he put some shots on goal but he is not burying chances like he used to.  The good news is that Jon Dhuran John Duran Jhon Duran is scoring with some regularity.  His header, which turned out to be the game winner, can be seen here. Villa will need Watkins to find his form but it's helpful that someone is picking up the slack.

Chris Kavanaugh Looks To Wipe Out Shithousery One Yellow Card At A Time

I count eight yellows in the testy but interesting 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Brighton.  At least four were related to some form of shithousery.  The one that really mattered though was Kavanaugh's decision to show Declan Rice yellow for delaying the restart of the free kick, seen here.  This got the extra attention as it was Rice's second yellow of the day so he was gone.  Kavanaugh took some lumps on the internet, though he did have his backers on this one.  We loved it.  Aside from the fact that it made the second half way more competitive and interesting to watch, we're in favor of any sanctions for that kind of nonsense.  We heard the argument about the mythical higher threshold for a second yellow, blah, blah, blah.  He knew exactly what he was doing.  Also, though I don't think it affected the decision, Rice's theatrical flop made me even more comfortable with the call.   More please.

Like Taking Candy From The Toffees

Fans outside Goodison Park wait for word on Sean Dyche

Whatever kind of bad day you had, there's no way it matches the disaster that befell Sean Dyche and Everton.  Comfortably up 2-0 at home against Bournemouth through 86 minutes, they saw the Cherries pour through three goals in less than 10 minutes to snatch all three points.  You can see all the carnage here.  Sean Dyche is under fire for Everton's terrible start - three losses and a goal differential of minus eight.  Still, it's too soon to sack him, right?  Maybe not, as there appears to be momentum to bring back David Moyes.

The Dreaded Vote Of Confidence

Speaking of managers under the microscope. After losses to Brighton and Liverpool, Erik ten Hag has gotten the backing of club managment.  As expressed by CEO Omar Berrada:

"Do we still believe in Erik? Absolutely. We think Erik is the right coach for us and we're fully backing him."

 But I also saw an article that said they already know who they will pick to replace when if he is sacked (Thomas Tuchel).  Sounds like dead man walking to me.

Addition By Not Subtracting - Another Look at the Newcastle Transfer Window

Certainly, Newcastle's transfers during this window were underwhelming.  The only incoming player expected to see much time - assuming he stays healthy - is left back Lloyd Kelly.  I guess technically Lewis Hall is considered a transfer in but that was really converting a loan into a permanent acquisition.  On the flip side, we did not lose Isak, Guimaraes, or Gordon.  Sondro Tonali will be effectively an addition given that he missed all but a few early games last year on suspension.  And we will get Botman and Laschelles back in January.  Botman in 2022-23 form would be a big lift.  Are those positives enough to outweigh not getting a center back and a winger?   Probably not, but the failure to land any marquee signings may not be disaster.

We shouldn't underestimate how the Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR) factored into the difficult summer window.  Oversimplifying a bit, the PSR limits the loss a team can take over a three-year period to about $134 million, or an average of about $45 million per year.  In other words, the rules dictate how much you can lose, not how much you can spend.  So, the higher your revenue base, the more you can spend.  This is why the comments after Newcastle were acquired by the Saudi PIF that they were simply going to spend their way to the title were so off base.  Take a look at the chart below. 

Since Loss = Revenue - Expenses, this is the relevant constraining factor in a team's ability to spend.  It doesn't matter that the PIF is worth $1 billion or whatever; the PSR says they can only loss $45 million per year.   At £250 million in revenue a year, Newcastle are near the top but look at the gap between them and the top six sides.  Most of the sides above them have at least two times as much revenue to work with.  Probably just a coincidence that the top six by revenue were the ones who were ready to establish a break away Champions League a few years ago.

I'm not saying there's not an advantage to having a well-heeled ownership, as that will affect the willingness of a club to sustain losses within the allowable limits.  But the likelihood that there will be losses is driven by revenue, not net worth.  That is, the side most likely to get the marquee signing with the $10 million annual salary ain't Bournemouth.  So all those worried that Newcastle would use that Arab money to take over the EPL can rest easy.  Yes, they have a financial advantage over all the clubs below them in that chart but nothing that threatens the top six.

Was that a rant?  I didn't think it was a rant.  Maybe it was a rant.

Treading Water Beats Drowning

The Union put up a good performance against the Red Bulls in Harrison NJ on Saturday night and were also greatly helped by the woodwork.  Uhre put them up in the fourth minute on a goal (seen here) that looked suspiciously soft but was probably just an accurate shot off the right foot to the left corner of the goal.  Baribo continued his hot form and doubled the lead at 14 minutes.  That would be all the scoring for the night, though the Red Bulls would hit the woodwork on numerous occasions.  I think the Union had a least one off the post too.  Many of the stats favor the Red Bulls but xG has the Union at 3.1-2.1.  This might be one of those where "you create your own luck?"

The bad news is that all the three unexpected points did was keep them from falling any further behind in the playoff chase as Atlanta also won.  The good news is that Toronto lost so they are now within reach as well.  This still looks like a difficult struggle.

A Good Week For Football Manager?

Except for a smattering of MLS fixtures, most leagues will be quiet this week for the international break.  For the USMNT there will be a couple of friendlies against Canada and New Zealand.  The team will be under the direction of interim manager Mikey Varas as the signing of Pochettino has not been completed yet.  

European countries will begin the latest installment of the Nations League, explained in more detail here.  I have labeled this competition - perhaps unfairly - as friendlies on steroids.  For some of the lesser lights, a good performance in the Nations League can be a back door entry into the 2026 World Cup so it's not completely meaningless.

Still, this might be a week for me to get in some extra Football Manager matches.