Let The Games Begin

Very nice of the IOC to wrap up their quadrennial spectacle before the EPL season started.  Would have put a massive strain on the DVR.

She Did It Her Way

Brazil definitely took it to the US in the first half of the gold medal match.  They had the better of the chances but Naeher came up big.  OTHO, good so see US weather that first half storm.  Swanson got them the goal they would need on a sweet pass from Albert.  There was some hint of offside but the goal correctly withstood review (see below). You can see the play as this week's easy choice for the YouTubeableMoment.  Squeaky bum time the rest of the way as the US never got a second goal.  Keeper Naeher would have to come up big again in stoppage time, seen here, to preserve the win.  The stats say a close match with slight edge to Brazil.  60/40 possession, 10/9 on shots, shots on target 4/3, 1.41/1.15 on xG.  But in the end, the US did enough to get the gold.

So Hayes gets to point to the gold in response to critics of her team selection and subsitution strategy. As I said earlier, I would have preferred more squad rotation.  Brazil, notably, had extensively rotated their squad throughout the tournament but that didn't seem to help them.   Some are saying they had a lucky path to the gold.  She benefited from from Swanson's return and recent missteps by earlier managers.  Blah, blah, blah.  As Bill James once said, and maybe a frog could fly a plane if we only knew how to translate the instructions into "froggy."  You can make the argument that Hayes was lucky, not right, but the team is wearing gold medals so maybe her way was the right way.

Offside- Part XXIV

Pciture posted by Jonathan Tannenwald showing that
Swanson was in an onside position at the time of the pass

My exact words to Dennis at the time of  Swanson's goal were "I think she was on, the other was off."  By that I meant, that although Smith was in an offside position, she was not involved in active play and the goal would stand.  And it did.  Oy, but there was tons of misinformation that followed. I saw some say the play never went to VAR.  That is not correct.  Just because the center referee didn't go to the monitor didn't mean the play wasn't reviewed. [Ed. note: what did your 10th grade English teacher tell you about using triple negatives?] She didn't have to go to the monitor because she didn't need to - the onfield call was clearly correct.

Many were sure that Swanson was offside.  Tannenwald's picture (right) shows otherwise; the grain of the grass cutting means we don't have to worry about parallax error.  Others were convinced that the goal should have been chalked off because Smith was offside.  The picture does confirm that Smith was indeed in an offside position but if you follow the video you'll see she never touched the ball or interfered with the defenders.   Yeah but, but.  Not buts about it.  The IFAB website even has an FAQ on this exact situation:

An attacking team player in an offside position (A) runs towards the ball and a team-mate in an onside position (B) also runs towards the ball and plays it. The first player (A) does not touch the ball and does not impact any opponent’s ability to play or challenge for the ball. What is the referee’s decision? 

The referee allows play to continue as the attacking team player (A) has not committed an offside offence.

Substitute (A) with Smith and (B) with Swanson and you have the scenrio that played out for the goal.  It's only a controversial goal if you don't know the rules.

A League Of Our Own

Turns out the Leagues Cup is just like the EFL Caraboa Cup.  That is, we love to trash the concept until we find our team going deep into the tournament with a chance to win the whole thing, or at least get something out of it.  Which is exactly where we find the Union right now.  With wins over Montreal and Cincinnati, they are now in the quarterfinals and will take on Mazatlan on Saturday for a place in the semis.  Should they move past the Mexican club, they would face Columbus or NYCFC in the semi.  Even if they lose in the semis, there is still a third place match that offers a spot in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.

Baribo: Nine goals in the last six matches!

I did see the 2-0 win over Montreal on "free" Apple but am hard-pressed to remember much about it.  Baribo got a brace of stoppage time goals, one in each half.  The stats say that Montreal didn't threaten the Union goal all that much though they did have the better of possession.  I remember a key Blake save early but that he wasn't tested all that much otherwise.  

I followed the 4-2 over Cincinnati on radio.  With all those goals, Dave Leno was probably a little hoarse afterward.  This had classic Union written all over it.  Build a 2-0 lead, surrender a goal at 66 minutes, then the equalizer at 80 minutes.  Great, we're gonna lose on PKs.  Then, Quinn Sullivan to the rescue.  He set up Baribo just one minute after Cincinnati drew level (another brace for Tai!) then got one for himself at 84 minutes.  Blake (or as Leno calls him, Brickwall Blake) had to make a few more saves before this one was over but they did hold on for the somewhat improbable win.  

We love the Leagues Cup!

Handicapping the EPL

I gathered up some of the predictions found on line to create a composite chart of all the projections.  It was suppposed to be shown below but I'm on the road and the file is on my external hard drive sitting in Philadelphia.  If you could see it, you might notice that the average for each team creates four separate clusters with relatively clean breaks.  Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have their own cluster at 1, 2 and 3.  The next group (4th through 8th) looks like Newcastle, Man United, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Chelsea.  The abbreviated mid-table (9th-11th) is West Ham, Crystal Palace, and Brighton.  Then we have the relegation don't-wanna-bes (12th-16th) Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves and Brentford.  Then there are the clear relegation favorites (17th-20th) Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Ipswich.  

Also note there are some big ranges here.  Fulham show up between 10th and 19th and Bournemouth forecasts go from 10th to 18th.  And, Man United, Everton and Brighton have a range of seven.  Newcastle predictions aren't exactly tight either.  Frankly the 3 and 4 finishes seem highly unlikely to me; 5th to 8th sounds more realistic. That is especially after a relatively tepid summer transfer window for the Magpies.  They are on their third bid for Palace defender March Guehi, which would be a big acquisition.  Otherwise, they have made marginal improvements that don't say top four finish to me.  You can see all EPL transfers here.

Answer To Last Week's Puzzler

Assuming no one has been sacked, the correct answers are:

US Soccer Federation Has A Type?

Multiple sources are saying that Pochettino will be the new manager of the USMNT.  Hmm, are they thinking that hiring an ex-Chelsea manager worked well for the USWNT so let's try it for the men?  Dennis notes that Hayes was with the Blues for 12 years and won, like eight titles so maybe it's not exactly the same.  Color me skeptical but I guess it's a change in approach so maybe that's a good thing.

And We're Off

The season opens with me visiting my dad in New Hampshire.  The good news is that we have been working on him over the years and he is generally cool with watching soccer, especially when someone is there to explain what's happeing.

Week 1 is nicely spread out over four days.  The season kicks off with Man United hosting Fulham on Friday at 3 pm (USA).  You can rise early on Saturday to see Liverpool welcome Ipswich back in the top tier (7:30 on USA); Opta sees that as rude welcome, with Liverpool at 66% to win and 18% to draw.    Four to choose from at 10.  We will watch Newcastle open their campaign at Saint James' Park against Southampton.  Opta has this as one of the weekend's bigger mismatches and I hope they are correct.  USA went with Arsenal- Wolves, which looks like an even bigger blowout, with the Gunners at 76% to win and 14% to draw.  Thus, I would go with Everton - Brighton or Nottingham Forest - Bournemouth as more competitive choices.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is the battle of Claret and Blue, except only West Ham will be in those colors as Aston Villa will have to go with their away kit.  Good choice for the feature match.  The Hammers are slight favorites, likely reflecting little more than the home field advantage.

Two on Sunday with Brentford - Crystal Palace at 9 am on USA and then Chelsea vs Man City at 11:30 on NBC.  The later has the sound of an important fixture but not so much lately; Opta sees that 60% win for Man City, with Chelsea only at 19% for a win.  The week concludes with Leicester's return to the Premier League hosting Spurs.

Union are at home against Mazatlan.  Given that this match wasn't on the fixture list until Tuesday night and the stakes are a bit higher, we will be interested to see if the Union fans are outnumbered this time.

Oh to be in front of a TV now that EPL is here.