Black and White, No Gray

There simply is no middle ground with Newcastle.  Saturday morning the Magpies took an early lead against West Ham on an own goal - though I would argue they had the run of play to that point and Saint-Maximin essentially put the West Ham defender in a no-win situation.  Even better, on that same play, Craig Dawson got himself sent off so Newcastle would play the next 54+ minutes a man up.  But wait, we're not done.  The generally reliable West Ham keeper Fabianski spilled the ball inside the six and Joe L. Linton put it away for a two goal lead at 41 minutes.  Start the second half up a man and two goals.  What could go wrong?

Another late game changer from Willock

If you only watched the second half, you would have thought Newcastle were the side playing a man down.  Unbelievable to watch.  The real shocker is that West Ham didn't score until the 73rd minute.  At this point a draw, or more likely a loss, really seemed possible.  When Ciaran Clark was whistled for handling in the box and Jesse Lingard (him again?) converted the PK in the 80th minute, I despaired of even the single point.  

The equalizer did seem to wake up the Magpies.  Glory be, two minutes later Joe Willock headed Matt Ritchie's cross into the back of the net for a most improbable game winner; an easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Surely, they could hang on from here.  Hey, this is Newcastle, remember?  And don't call me Shirley.  But they did and a bonus three points were in the bag.

Certainly having Saint-Maximin back has made a big difference.  But I suggest a little love for Matt Ritchie and Jacob Murphy.  Their increased presence in the last three matches can't be overlooked.  Three matches from which Newcastle have grabbed a highly unlikely seven points; going into this set I would have thought anything more than one would be a big help.

The other big match up for us relegation junkies was Arsenal-Fulham.  You know, 9th place Arsenal?  The club that thinks it's so good that it deserves a place in the Super League (more on that below).  To be fair, they probably did outplay Fulham but all they had to show for it going into stoppage time was an 0-1 deficit.  But in the 97th  minute, Nketiah scored on a loose ball off a shot from Ceballos that  Fulham keeper Areola had done well to parry.  And more points dropped late for Fulham.  

The weekend ended with Newcastle eight points clear of relegation and actually in 15th place, slipping past both Burnley and Brighton.  Relegation percentage at 538 is down to 4%, with Fulham up to 89%.  Recall that three short weeks ago, they were both at 48%.  Looking at the remaining fixtures, it's possible Newcastle have enough but would do better to pick up two more points.  A win versus Sheffield would seal it.  So would a draw on the final day against Fulham.  But given how hot and cold this team can run, that would be unbearable if it came down to final weekend vs Fulham.

Quad Is Dead Despite Jesus's Efforts

Hopes for Man City's unprecedented quad ended rather unceremoniously on Saturday as Chelsea dumped them out of the FA Cup with a 1-0 win.  Not the most inspiring of matches and City looked pretty flat.  Not that the Blues were overwhelming but it did feel like the correct result.  In the equally uninspiring second semi, Leicester bested Southampton 1-0.  This one featured a total of one shot on goal and not much else.  The goal was scored by...EatANacho...who has simply been on fire since BFS provided the pronunciation guidance back in March.  Little known fact: both goals in these semis were scored in the 55th minute.

Do You Know the Way to Sack Jose? (apologies to Dionne Warwick)

Perhaps a mild surprise but after a 2-2 draw with Everton on Friday, Tottenham gave Mourinho the boot on Monday morning.  I say surprise because I figured he'd get the chance to win some hardware this weekend with the League Cup Final against Man City.  But as I think more about it, maybe the fear was that they would win the League Cup and it would make sacking Mourinho all that much more difficult.

With Ryan Mason appointed caretaker manager, Spurs first half against Southampton didn't look too good as they fell behind on a Danny Ings goal.  Their work rate was much improved in the second half, and eventually it produced a goal from Gareth Bale.  A possible game winner was called back (correctly for offside).  Then Reguilon was fouled right on the 18-yard line and Son converted the PK in stoppage time for the comeback 2-1 win.  Spurs still face long odds to make Champions League but at least the Mourinho nightmare is over.

Distracted?

Liverpool stumbled to a 1-1 draw against Leeds on Monday, dropping two points at a critical time in their chase for a Champions League berth.  Perhaps the players were distracted by the announcement of Liverpool's participation in the proposed Super League.  On Tuesday, Chelsea stumbled to a 0-0 draw against Brighton, dropping two points at a critical time in their chase for a Champions League berth.  Perhaps the players were distracted by the announcement of Chelsea's participation in the proposed Super League.

Man United were perhaps lucky to play Burnley before news was widespread about the Super League and got a 3-1 win to virtually cement their Champions League spot.  Leicester versus West Brom ended too late for this edition of BFS.

Leicester and Liverpool looked best positioned to get the two spots after the Manchester clubs but Chelsea are certainly still a threat.  West Ham's loss to Newcastle put a real dent in their chances.  

If You Can't Earn It, Buy It

Of course, conversation this week was more about events off the field than results on the pitch.  Sunday saw the announcement of a new Super League to be formed by six EPL, three La Liga and three Serie A clubs.  Details can be had here.  Trying to explain in unbiased terms is difficult but it was basically a proposal to create an alternative to the Champions League in which the 12 founding clubs plus others to be added would play in a mid-week competition.  Their justification was obtained by The Guardian and is excerpted here.

The outrage was so swift that the plan fell apart by Tuesday.  But, but, I didn't even get a chance to vent here before it collapsed.  Screw it.  I'm still going to get my rant in.

This was a naked power grab by a group of clubs with reputedly greater drawing power that were bothered by the fact that they didn't make enough from participation in the Champions League; they blamed the structure which includes too many unattractive fixtures.  Hmm, maybe you would make more money if you lasted longer in the existing Champions League or, here's an idea - QUALIFY FOR CHAMPIONS LEAGUE IN THE FIRST PLACE!  In the last five years, at least four of the 12 have failed to make it to the CL Round of 16.  Inter haven't reached the Champions League Round of 16 since 2011-12.  AC Milan are not much better at 2013-2014.  Hold the phone - AC Milan haven't even qualified for Champions League since then.  Arsenal haven't been there since 2016-17.   Sure looks like they are buying rather than winning their way into a super league.  Anti-competitive through and through.  These guys aren't even the Best of the Best of the Best.

Commitment to the domestic leagues?  With guaranteed participation in the Super League, any place in the table will do so how does that do anything but diminish the interest in domestic league play?  The number of meaningless matches, when a team no longer has any reason to compete, will increase.  Sure, 18-20 are still to be avoided, once 1st, 18th, 19th and 20th are out of reach, what is there to play for?

Financial troubles?  Don't doubt it.  Did pandemic make it worse? Don't doubt it.  But these 12 self-anointed clubs are saying we are bigger than European football and will take it upon ourselves to solve the economic issues.  Not saying I'd be thrilled with this, but if the current structure was modified to have a more exclusive Champions League format and an expanded Europa League format, might that help the finances.  Even that falls a bit thin when you think about how many of the Champions League matches are "unattractive."  To win the CL, you play six group stage, six knockout games and the final for a total of 13.  In theory, at most four of those matches should be against less than top 16 clubs in the world, unless of course there are upsets.

Not to pick on Michael B, but I was most disappointed to see Spurs and Atletico Madrid involved here.  Those are two clubs that fought and earned their way into Champions League success.  Now they want to make it much harder for clubs that used to be just like them.  

Gratifying to see how swift and nearly unanimous the the reaction was from most of the governing agencies, players, fans, and pundits.  But while this proposal is dead, the issue is very much alive and expect more ideas of this ilk to surface.

A Good 0-0 Draw

I know many say that's an oxymoron.  But really, the Union draw at Columbus Sunday evening was a solid achievement for the club and a decent watch as well.  First, the context.  We never get points at Mapfre Stadium - it's like Newcastle at Arsenal.  Second, Columbus are last year's MLS Cup winners and are still pretty good.  Third, the Union are a little light on depth right now, plus the average age of the squad looks to be about 17.8.

Leon Flach (l) has impressed with his work rate

The first 15 minutes did not go well as the Crew's intensity was smothering anything the Union tried to do.  A good sign was how the squad responded; Union sides of old might have fallen behind 0-1 or 0-2.  From there on out, I'd argue Philadelphia gave as good as it got.  The xG at 538 shows a very slight advantage for the Union, suggesting that a draw was probably the fair result. Like last year, there was the moment when Blake's heroics kept the Union in the match, which you can see here.  A good road point IMHO.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say the Columbus defender was terrible?

Steve: No, I said he was Afful.

At Least Grab the Right Body Part

Oscars are Sunday night

Not to pick on Jeff H and Man United, but there was a moment in the Burnley match in which  Donny van de Beek 1) totally overreacted to physical contact from James Tarkowski and 2) writhed on the ground grabbing his shin when the contact was clearly on the toe.  From the picture (left), you'd think he'd suffered a compound fracture.  But no, he was up and running in seconds.  Just stop it.

Maybe I Do Caraboa It Cup

The weekend's fixtures are slightly truncated due the League Cup Final on Sunday at 11:30.  We kid about the League Cup's status here but hardware is hardware.  For Spurs it's also a chance for automatic entry in the Europa League (albeit the second tier).  With City's quad out the window and with their first leg of Champions League semi-final against PSG on Wednesday, we wonder if Pep will look to rotate his squad here.  He's all about winning the CL so maybe.  Internet says ESPN has the coverage but I'm not seeing on my TV guide.  

In league play, Newcastle travel to Anfield on Saturday for a 7:30 match with Liverpool (Peacock).  I suspect we will walk alone on this one.  A point would be beyond expectations.  Fulham are idle so they won't gain us and we'll have the same number of games played.  Best thing here would be minimal damage to the goal differential, since we're finally equal with Fulham.

Our other relegation rivals do have a chance to make up some ground.  Burnley face Wolves on the road (Sunday 7 am on NBCSN); the Clarets have good chance for at least a point here.  Brighton travel to take on Sheffield United (Saturday 3 pm on Peacock), the Seagulls are solid favorites in this one.  West Brom are really not in it but don't know that yet; Aston Villa could make that much clearer with a win over the Baggies Sunday afternoon (2 pm on Peacock).

Biggest action on the Champions League qualification front is West Ham - Chelsea Saturday at 12:30 on NBC.  A loss to either would be costly; a draw might keep both alive but barely.  Leicester have an eminently winnable home match with Crystal Palace, who look ready for the beach.  Man United, who basically have a spot sewed up, are favored against Leeds, even on the road; um, but be careful as Leeds are unbeaten in their last five, including draws with Liverpool and Chelsea and a win over Man City.  Arsenal - Everton round out the schedule, Friday at 3 pm on NBCSN.

First legs of Champions League semi-finals this week and they look awesome.  Chelsea is at Real Madrid on Tuesday and Man City is at PSG on Wednesday.   Europa League semi-finals first legs are on Thursday, with Man United hosting Roma and Arsenal traveling to face Villareal.  Looks like CBSSports has the CL matches live while the Europa League matches are on slight delay ( 7 pm and 9pm same day).  The Europa stuff is probably live on Paramount.

The Union have two matches this week as well.  Saturday is the league home opener against Miami.  You can catch that on PHL-17 at 8 pm.  They also have the first leg of their Concacaf Champions League quarterfinal tie with Atlanta on Wednesday Tuesday night at 8 pm.  That'll be on FS1.

Again, another week with relevant matches every day.  Hard to get work done isn't it?

Math Is Becoming Our Friend

An even better slate of results than last week for Newcastle and the more we plow through the numbers, the better things look.

Podence (10) needs a shorter sleeve

We start with Friday afternoon's Fulham-Wolves contest in which almost nothing happened.  Not that we would have complained about a 0-0 draw in this one.  One thing that did happen was possibly the closest offside call of the year.  Willian Jose's header had put Wolves up 1-0 in first half stoppage time except it was overruled by VAR.  Check out the photo (right) to see how close it was. Once again, offside is binary - it's not a judgment - he's either on or off.  In the picture, he is off.  Except is that the exact moment the ball was played?  So they came out to do more nothing for another 45 minutes.  Finally, the nothingness was shattered by this goal from Adama Traore, his first EPL tally since December 2019.  Not sure how he beat the keeper near side there but it worked for us. A draw would have been fine but a Fulham loss was even more helpful.

Jacob Murphy makes it 1-1

Fast forward to 7 am Sunday morning for Newcastle's difficult fixture with Burnley at Turf Moor.  Not an awful start but at 18 minutes the Magpies were behind.  They had some good chances but went into the locker room still down 0-1.  At 57 minutes Bruce pulled the trigger, taking out Joelinton and Gayle and putting in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin.  I guess you could say it made a difference.  At 59 minutes ASM fed Jacob Murphy at the top of the box and he buried the shot.  Five minutes later, ASM takes a pass from Shelvey at midfield, winds his way down the pitch, makes a couple of moves in the box, then fires one past Pope.  Easy peasy 2-1 win.  We'll make that goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Wait, sorry, that was the ASM goal versus Burnley in the reverse fixture earlier this year.  Here's the ASM goal from this match.  Kinda similar, don't you think?

The math is rather daunting for Fulham at this point.  The percentage chances of relegation at 538 are 15% for Newcastle and 81% for Fulham.  Their remaining matches are Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Southampton away with Burnley and Newcastle home.  Seven points?  Maybe nine?  If the latter, Newcastle need four more. But the schedule is not exceptionally kind for the Magpies either. Liverpool, Leicester and Fulham away, with West Ham, Arsenal, Man City and Sheffield United home.  A win versus Sheffield and draw with Fulham will clearly be enough.  If Fulham come to the final week with less than six more points, a win over Sheffield will be enough.  

The Most Dangerous Lead

Apparently it is West Ham up by three.  For the third straight match the Hammers took a 3-0 lead - this time against Leicester - and then made life exciting.  They did hang on for a 3-2 win to reclaim the fourth spot they held going into the weekend.  Best Loanee Evah Jesse Lingard added two more goals; he has produced 11 (8 scored, 3 assisted) in his nine outings for West Ham.  Speaking of two goals, EatANacho got both of Leicester's goals; he has seven goals in his last four matches, and nine in his last six.  

Unfortunately, I skipped the Man City Leeds contest as the early Saturday match on Peacock.  My loss.  And Man City's.  Leeds were up 1-0 but saw Liam Cooper sent off in first half stoppage time.  Even with the advantage, City didn't equalize until the 76th minute.  Shockingly, it was Leeds that scored in stoppage time, with Stuart Dallas getting his second.  City's statistical advantage is stunning but worth zero points.  They led in possession (71-29), shots (29!!!-2), shots on target (7-2) and expected goals (3.0-.2).  This merely delays the coronation.

Grealishless Aston Villa made Liverpool work hard for a 2-1 win; Trent-Alexander's winner came in stoppage time.  That one also featured an incredibly close offside call explained here.  Man United took all three from Spurs in a match with a good bit of snarl to it.  Son had given Spurs a 1-0 lead but a rare tally from Fred, then a diving header from Cavani put the Reds back in front.  Tottenham did have some decent chances in the closing minutes but couldn't convert.  Greenwood's stoppage time goal made it a 3-1 final, which might flatter Man United a bit.  Better effort from Spurs than the Newcastle outing but their Champions League chances are dropping like a stone.  Chelsea kept themselves in the picture with a comfortable 4-1 pasting of Crystal Palace.

Who's Wearing Flip Flops?

Certainly Crystal Palace looked ready for the beach in their lackluster showing against Chelsea.  Same for Southampton, who were steamrollered 3-0 by West Brom.  That match provided us with a second time to use the word occlusion in connection with VAR.  As detailed here, the cameras were not able to get a definitive placement of the lines for a VAR review of an offside goal.  Since there was no conclusive evidence, the offside call was not reversed and the goal was disallowed.  Maybe not as consequential as the Great Occlusion that helped Aston Villa avoid relegation last year but again we see the limits of VAR.

For the Baggies this looks like too little too late.  The win dropped their relegation chances from 99 to 97%. Where are more points going to come from?  Remaining matches include Leicester, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Leeds away with Wolves, Liverpool and West Ham at home. Maybe few points left but also could be none.  Do you see at least eight points there?  Me neither.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve [as ASM and Wilson go in for Gayle and Joelinton]: Don't consider myself a tactical genius but if part of the problem has been getting service to the forwards, how does replacing both forwards help?

Dennis [after ASM sets up Murphy within 2 minutes of entering match]: "Not a tactical genius" is correct

Dennis [after ASM scores 5 minutes after that]: Boy do you look dumb

In my defense, ASM did not play as a forward but more like a number 10.  Further, note that on his goal, he did all the work himself, taking the ball at midfield and creating the goal from there.  Probably reveals my bias about Steve Bruce that I assumed he was making a straight swap when he fact he was also changing the formation or at least the player roles.  On the other hand, how much credit does a coach deserve for seeing his team's fortunes change after he puts in his two best players?

Union Coast

Monteiro had two goals and two assists

Though they had the advantage, bringing a 1-0 lead to Subaru Park, the Union's Round of 16 Concacaf
Champions League tie with Saprissa was far from finished.  They had several good chances while looking solid in defense in a scoreless first half.  Then the floodgates opened.  Fontana was fouled at the top of the box and Monteiro converted the PK in the 47th minute.  You had the sense that this would be enough but the Union kept going.  Four minutes later Monteiro set up shuhBILLkoh for a solid header and three minutes after that set up Fontana for a nicely placed shot.  The Cape Verdean completed the night with his second in stoppage time.  The 4-0 final (5-0 on aggregate) does not flatter the Union - they dominated the second half.  Saprissa was definitely compromised with injuries and covid.  Still, the solid showing in their first Champions League action is a big positive.  

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad (apologies to Meat Loaf)

The away sides definitely had the better of things in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal match-ups.  In two cases, it was enough but in two others, it was not.  On Tuesday Porto managed an away goal against Chelsea, as did Bayern versus PSG.  But in both, this was not enough to win on aggregate, with Chelsea earning a 2-1 win and PSG advancing with a 3-3 draw based on more away goals.  On Wednesday, Real Madrid got pushed around a bit by Liverpool but held the Reds to a 0-0 draw so they take that one 3-1 on aggregate.  Man City had to work harder against Dortmund.  The Germans were actually in a position to advance based on an early goal.  Then two away goals from City put things to rest based on a 4-2 aggregate.

So two of the three EPL sides advance to the semi-finals.  Chelsea will face Real Madrid and Man City will take on PSG.  Matches are 4/27-28 and 5/4-5.   

Tyneside Tilt

BFS Referee Consultant Graham R picked up on point made in the Newcastle-Tottenham match - the pitch at St. James' Park slopes down North to South (i.e. towards the Gallowgate End).  As detailed here (see number 15.), the original slope was 18 feet, which sounds like some of the venues we encountered in Inter-County travel soccer.  As I read this (see 27.3), the maximum gradient allowed by the EPL is 1:41.  If I have my math right, that means you can have as much as 9 feet on a typical 120-yard long pitch.  That seems like a lot.

Also, this means Newcastle have been going downhill for a long time, but we knew that.

EPL, FA Cup and MLS

Busy times ahead.

The FA Cup semi-finals cut into the EPL weekend action but they make up for it with four mid-week matches.  So there'll be at least one EPL match for 11 straight days.  Plus FA Cup plus the start of MLS.

First to the important stuff.  Neither Newcastle or Fulham should really be expecting any points.  The Magpies host West Ham (Saturday 7:30 on NBCSN) and Fulham travel to London to face Arsenal (Sunday at 8:30 on NBCSN).  Expected points are .99 and .90 respectively, which means if the two sides match results, Newcastle's odds will get a little worse.  Draws in both would be fine with me.  Newcastle might want to man mark Jesse Lingard.  Just sayin'.

Odds suggest that the Champions League standings shouldn't change this week, with maybe one exception.  Certainly the top three look safe.  Man City (away to Aston Villa - Wednesday at 3:15 pm on NBCSN), Man United (hosting Burnley Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), and Leicester (hosting West Brom Thursday at 3 pm on NBCSN) are solid favorites.  Fourth to six - West Ham, Chelsea (hosting Brighton Tuesday at 3 pm on Peacock) and Liverpool (at Leeds Monday 3 pm on NBCSN)  - probably get wins too.  Spurs can take advantage of a quirk in the schedule to get six points while the others get three.  First they have Everton on Friday at Goodison Park (3 pm NBCSN) then get Southampton at home Wednesday at 1 pm on Peacock.  Sure it means they'll have played an extra match but if they can get closer in points, maybe there's a psychological advantage.  Grasping at straws?  

Flip-flop special of the week is Wolves - Sheffield United Saturday at 3:15 on Peacock.  Neither side has much to play for there.

I couldn't find TV coverage for the FA Cup semi-finals so you'll need ESPN+ to watch those.  Saturday's 12:30 match between Chelsea and Man City looks tight.  City are still in line for the unprecedented quad (EPL, League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League).  Chelsea, except for the weird performance against West Brom have not been giving up too many goals.  The Sunday match in Leicester - Southampton at 1:30.  Both sides have been shaky in league play recently but Leicester is favored.  

The traditional MLS regular season pits the MLS Cup winner versus the Supporters Shield winner.  Hey, that's us!  The Union travel to Columbus to face the Crew Sunday at 5:30 on FS1.  More national exposure for our boys.  We are still getting respect at 538, who have the Union ranked first in the East.  They have this match as basically a draw; that seems like a good result on the road against the Crew.

Good thing we're already in mid-season viewing condition.

Another Pleasant Valley Sunday

 with apologies to The Monkees

Joelinton (l) gets Newcastle an early lead

Wow, what a great few hours last Sunday morning.  Despite some decidedly shaky moments, the results could hardly have turned out better.  First, Newcastle put up one of their best performances of the year, a complete 180 from the debacle at Brighton.  Bruce did make some adjustments to the line up, starting Ritchie, Murphy and Longstaff.  The Magpies were also buoyed by Joe L Linton's finest performance in a Newcastle kit; besides finding the net for a change, he also exhibited the hold-up play he always seemed capable of providing, something quite critical for a side that is not exactly built to string together a long sequence of passes.

Atypically, Newcastle were on the front foot from the start and the early lead was deserved, if short-lived.  First an unlucky bounce in the six yard box quickly tied it up, then another from Harry Kane and we were behind 1-2.  I was trying to remind myself that the most important thing here was a good effort but the quality of play made me greedy for something from the match.  Fortunately, we got the equalizer in the 85th minute.  Willock's goal is an easy choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment;  many fingerprints on this one - Manquillo, ASM, Joelinton, Ritchie, Almiron.  Note the key move by Allan Saint-Maximin who delivers the ball to Ritchie, who then sends a sweet cross into the box.  The draw was no less than they deserved.

We moved onto the second part of the Sunday brunch to watch Aston Villa host Fulham.  This was somewhat frustrating for awhile as the Grealishless Villans seemed unable to score.  It got worse after a sloppy attempted pass back by Tyrone Mings ended up with Mitrovic scoring the go ahead goal.  Fortunately, Villa responded admirably with three goals from 78 minutes on to take all three points.  

The net for Sunday morning was about 1.35 expected points - plus .13 for Newcastle and minus 1.22 for Fulham.  Relegation percentages at the end of the weekend went from 47 percent for both to 35% for Newcastle and 61% for Fulham.  Good day.

A Disturbance in the Force

Chelsea looked a gift horse in the mouth but didn't drink.  Or something like.  Home to West Brom, they had a perfect chance to strengthen their hold on fourth place.  A Pulisic goal had them up 1-0 but soon Thiago Silva was sent off with a second yellow.  Still, it's West Brom and you're at Stamford Bridge right?  Two goals in first half stoppage time said otherwise.  Two more second half goals and Chelsea were down 4-1.  A Mason Mount goal at 71 minutes gave some up that they might rescue a point but it was not to be.  With results elsewhere, this put a big dent in the Blues' Champions League hopes.

The Results Elsewhere

Man City were in control the whole way in a 2-0 win over Leicester City.  Their magic number is now 10 points, either earned by them or dropped by Man United.  Speaking of Man United and dropping points, the Red Devils looked in danger of doing just that versus Brighton; they needed an 83rd minute goal from Mason Greenwood to take a 2-1 win over the Seagulls.  Liverpool kept their thin Champions League hopes alive with a second straight league win, a 3-0 thumping of Arsenal.  The loss left the Gunners in 10th place, tied on points with Leeds United.

Biggest move of the weekend came from West Ham, who came close to coughing up a second straight 3-0 lead.  This time, against Wolves, they hung on for all three points and slipped into fourth place.  Jesse Lingard continued sparkle with another goal and an assist.  The finance text books say that loans do not pay dividends but this one sure has.  Even with the result, 538 still favors Leicester, Liverpool or Chelsea to grab the third and fourth Champions League spots.

The Dreaded E-word

Late in Aston Villa's comeback win over Fulham, the commentators suggested the Villans might still be in the hunt for one of next fall's three European league competitions.   Dennis was not amused. He has no interest in seeing his squad travel to former Russia states for midweek contests.  He probably doesn't have too much to worry about.  They are not really in the hunt for Champions League and the three Europa spots go to the 5th place finisher, the FA Cup winner, and the Carabao Cup winner.  According to 538 they have just a 1% chance of finishing 5th.  They are out of the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup which I believe means their chances there are 0%.  So the only danger is if either of those Cup winners already has a berth in European football and they reach down to 6th and 7th to fill the spots.  But 538 tips their chances for 6th at just 3% and 6% for 7th.   Probably okay.

Veni, Vidi, Vini

Been years since Latin classes but I believe it translates roughly as I came, I saw, I scored two goals against Liverpool in the first leg of Champions League quarterfinal. Vinicius Junior, or Vini Jr. for short, got Real Madrid started and then provided a little cushion in the first leg of tie with Liverpool.  Down 1-3 heading home with an away goal doesn't seem awful, but Liverpool were seriously outplayed here.  They'll have to be so much better at Anfield.

Lots of away goals in the first legs.  Chelsea got 2 and held Porto scoreless in their "away" match in Seville; they'll play their "home" match next Tuesday...in Seville. Gotta love those covid-19 travel protocols.  PSG got three goals in the snow at Munich and will have a good chance to put Bayern away in Paris on Tuesday.  Dortmund also got one on the road against Man City, who needed a late goal from Phil Foden to take a 2-1 lead after the first leg.  

A Hockey Game Broke Out

Apologies but the Concacaf Champions League action snuck up on me.  Sorry, the Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League.  The Union had their first ever action in this competition on Wednesday night against Saprissa, a Costa Rican club.  Normally the setting would be extremely unfriendly but instead of rabid fans, the stadium was filled with the sound of the howling wind and a flock of birds.  This was a very young and shorthanded squad.  The bench was filled with players who aren't even household names in their own homes.

Good effort from them as they were on the attack early.  An excellent cross from Mbaizo that CatsPurr shuh-BILL-koh expertly headed into the goal was the only tally of the day.  The boys looked tired near the end and were clearly hanging on for dear life in the last 15 minutes.  But they did and bring a 1-0 lead back to Subaru Park next week.  Great work from Jose Martinez at defensive midfielder and right back Mbaizo with numerous forays down the wing.  Fontana may have been a little out of place in Aaronson's role up top but that is probably only temporary until we get Santos or Burke back.

Things got messy towards the end, thanks in part to an overly lenient referee.  I would have shown some yellows before he did.  Matt Real's tackle was an orange card.  Blanco's tackle on Wagner in the closing seconds should have been a red but only got a yellow.  His tackle spurred a protective intervention by Glesnes, that rapidly degenerated into a larger scrum.  Video here.  No VAR at this stage so the ref was not able to reconsider his yellow.  Still possible a post-match disciplinary panel will correct that.  Good to see the young team not intimidated and a great result in the Union's first international showing.

Same Coach,  Same A-hole

After the most recent blown lead, Mourinho stepped up to the plate to take responsibility.  Not.  As detailed here, he was quick to transfer blame to the players.  I wonder, does he throw the players under the same bus that he parks during the match?  Just askin'.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did you say the Union's sporting director Tanner was getting some grief for lack of off-season moves?

Steve: No, I said he took Flach from someone.

Defining the Run-in

Arlo White offers an answer to the age-old question as to when does the run-in begin.  His take is that it starts after the spring international break.  Sounds reasonable to us.

Another Edgy Weekend

The fixtures again do not favor Newcastle.  Fulham are a prohibitive favorite as they host Wolves on Friday at 3 pm on Peacock.  Newcastle travel to the unfriendly confines of Turf Moor to take on Burnley Sunday morning (7 am on Peacock - ugh).  A pair of draws would be fine, and actually, so would a pair of losses.  But any Sunday in April on which you can end up in the relegation zone is a scary thing.

The Champions League relevant matches include Crystal Palace vs Chelsea (12:30 Saturday on NBC), West Ham - Leicester (Sunday at 9 on Peacock), Spurs - Man United (11:30 Sunday on Peacock - thanks a lot schedulers who put three Sunday morning matches on Peacock) and Liverpool hosting Aston Villa (10 am Saturday on NBCSN).  The West Ham/Leicester and Spurs/Man United contests look pretty tight.  

Midweek is crowded with the second leg of the Champions Leg quarterfinals on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Hard to choose which ones to watch.  I might go with PSG-Bayern over Chelsea-Porto on Tuesday, despite the EPL connection.  Liverpool-Real Madrid looks like the better choice on Wednesday.

And we have the second leg of the Union vs Saprissa at 8 pm Wednesday on FS1.  Good to be up 1-0 but that tie is far from over.  Also, interested to see if there's any carryover from the extracurricular activity at the close of the first leg,

Drop Zone Drama

I welcomed the international break as a respite from the horror show Tyneside.  I'll recount some of the highlights of the break for me, then step back into the grim reality that is Newcastle.

We Knew Him When

A familiar sight for Union fans - Aaronson celebrating goal

Finally tuned back into the USMNT.  Yeah, they were friendlies but it was a good chance to see what this team might look like heading into the WC Qualifiers this fall.  Among the pleasant surprises was seeing former Union player Brenden Aaronson making second half appearances in which he clearly had an impact.  In the 4-1 Jamaica win, he could have had an assist shortly after entering the game but Reyna couldn't finish after Aaronson gave him a sweet through ball.  Brenden got one anyway a few minutes later.  He also helped on another by creating space for Lletget on one of his two goals.  Aaronson didn't get on the scoresheet in the 2-1 win over Northern Ireland but still looked pretty dangerous.

Certainly some reason for optimism for this squad going forward.  Pulisic wasn't so great in the Jamaica match but did well against Northern Ireland.  Sergino Dest had an awesome strike versus Jamaica and looks unlike any defender I've ever seen in a US uniform.  Yunus Mensah is now officially on the US squad.  So many more players with soccer skills, not just raw athletic talent.  

Whoa No, Guadalajara Won't Do (apologies to Steely Dan)

 Once again, the US won't be competing in the Olympics as the team crashed out of the qualifying in a strange 2-1 loss to Honduras in Guadalajara.  Again.  The first Honduran goal came late first half stoppage time with the US looking like their heads were maybe already in the locker room.  The second goal was a dreadful mistake by keeper David Ochoa - a sloppy clearance that ricocheted off an Honduran attacker and into the net.  Jackson Yueill brought the US back into the match with a thunder strike but there would be no equalizer.  So the Yanks stay home again.

Save It For the EPL?

Checked in on several of the European WC qualifying matches.  Scotland's 2-2 draw with Austria might have been the best.  Scotland fell behind twice but rallied late to salvage a point from the match.  The equalizer came in the 85th minute on a lovely bicycle kick from Aston Villa's John McGinn, this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Dennis was happy enough about it but wished that McGinn had saved that one for Aston Villa.

Saw Belgium take out Wales 3-1 then draw Czech Republic 1-1.  The latter was not exactly their finest but probably just a stumble on the way to qualification.  England-Poland was a bit of a snooze; Poland without Lewandowski is like trying to watch Newcastle score.  But they did manage to make it interesting with a second half goal that made England work for the 2-1 win.

Not your fault, buddy.  Ireland keeper Bazunu
walks off after 0-1 loss to Luxembourg

Ireland's chances took a serious hit with losses to Serbia (2-3) and, shockingly, Luxembourg (0-1).  Wished I could have seen the latter match, as it featured my FM Forest Green's keeper Gavin Bazunu.  He doesn't look culpable on the Luxembourg goal and in fact the game reports suggest he had a great game.   He has been awesome for my Forest Green side. 

  

Caveat Emptor

The Special One now comes with
 his own warning label

After a listless performance in the North London derby and then coughing up a two goal lead and losing to Dinamo Zagreb in Europa League action, Jose Mourinho was back in the hot seat.  A 2-0 win on the road over Aston Villa may have calmed things for the moment.  They climbed back to 6th and still have some hope of a top four finish.  Still, the picture (left) might be good advice for any owners hoping to sign Jose should he get sacked.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: You think that should have been a yellow card?

Steve: No, I said it was a Vinicius challenge

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Michael (as Spurs were losing 2-3 to Dinamo Zagreb): Two goal lead the most dangerous in football

Steve: Most dangerous lead is any Spurs' lead

Gutless Performance

Tried to put it off but now I must review the EPL action from the prior weekend.  Friday was great as Leeds rallied from a goal down to best Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage.  As the Cottagers were solid favorites here, this was a serious blow to Fulham.  So I went into Saturday thinking Newcastle were sort of playing with house money.  They were underdogs on the road, so I was hoping they just put up a good effort and if they got a point, well great.  They did neither.  The Chronicle used the word "gutless" numerous times in their write-up.  Might be a tad generous.  The 3-0 final for the Seagulls does not flatter them.  This was a thorough beat down.  A failure on every level.  I thought it might have signaled the end for Bruce, especially with the international break looming; if Ashley was going to pull the trigger, this would have been the time.  But no.  That means he's likely in for the rest of the season.  After the weekend results, 538 shows both Fulham and Newcastle with a 47% chance of relegation.  So the Leeds loss was more damaging to Fulham than the Newcastle debacle was for the Magpies.  Just doesn't feel that way.

Hopefully some of you tuned into the fun 3-3 draw between West Ham and Arsenal.  Jesse Lingard - the loan that keeps on giving - opened the scoring for the Hammers and by 32 minutes they were up 3-0.  An own goal from Soucek, then one from Craig Dawson made things considerably more interesting.  For the record, that meant West Ham had surrendered three consecutive own goals, two of them from Dawson.  Lacazette completed the comeback in the 82nd minute.  Ironically, the draw put a dent in both teams' hopes for the top four.  

Aston Villa came up totally flat against Spurs and went down 0-2.  Key point here was that we found out that Sanson is not French for Grealish.  

FA Cup Quarters

Frankly, I can't remember much about the matches.  Leicester beat Man United 3-1 with a couple more from the "in-form" EatANacho.  Chelsea, Southampton and Man City also advanced so the semi's will feature Chelsea-Man City and Leicester-Southampton.  One of these is not like the others.

In Case You Missed It

Courtesy my neighbor Mary R

Oh To Be in England Now That the Clocks Have Sprung Forward

Break's over and the 7 am matches have returned.  Actually the fixtures are on the tepid side and we might not see much happening in the table this weekend.

We are all about relegation now so our focus will be Sunday morning.  Newcastle host Spurs at 9:05 on NBCSN.  The good news is that we might see Allan Saint-Maximin back for the Magpies.  The bad news is that it probably won't matter.  A draw here would be stunning.  Then at 11:30 we'll watch, probably in perpetual fear, Aston Villa take on Fulham.  The Villans are favored, but not by a lot.  This is another weekend when losses for both Newcastle and Fulham will be far more damaging to Fulham.  I hear that Grealish is back for Aston Villa so that's a good thing.

Saturday afternoon has the two best matches for the top of the table chase.  Man City travel to face Leicester at 12:30 on NBCSN while Arsenal host Liverpool at 3 pm, also on NBCSN.  City and Liverpool are favored but both could be interesting matches.  The Leicester match is likely one of the last chances to derail City's title bid, if that's even possible at this point.  

Chelsea will look to take advantage of a home match versus West Brom (Saturday at 7:30 am on NBCSN if you're inclined to rise early).  Wolves - West Ham on Monday at 3 pm on Peacock might be worth a look.  

Fortunately, the midweek Champions League and Europa League quarterfinal action will more than compensate for the shortcomings of the EPL schedule.  Tuesday/Wednesday will have leg one of the Champions League quarters involving Real Madrid - Liverpool (Tuesday 3 pm), Man City - Dortmund (Tuesday 3 pm), Bayern - PSG (Wednesday 3 pm) and Porto - Chelsea (Wednesday 3 pm).  Thursday has four Europa quarter final first legs, all at 3 pm - Arsenal - Slavia Praha, Granada- Man United, Ajax - Roma and Dinamo Zagreb - Villareal.  Very cool that five EPL sides are still alive in these competitions.  Looks like you can brush up on your Spanish and take in Real Madrid - Liverpool on Univision but the rest are probably only available on ParamountPlus.  

I'm sure I missed something but that's all I got this week.

Championship Football

And I mean that in the worst way.  This weekend, I saw more than a few teams - and not just the relegation-threatened ones - play like second division clubs.

Projects and teaching will keep this short.  Which is just as well because you don't need to read me whine. 

Can We Have Those 85 Minutes Back?

What was the old adage about NBA games?  Something like save yourself some time and just watch the last five minutes.  That was the Fillebrown Derby in a nutshell.  If you waited until the 86th minute to tune in, you didn't miss anything.  That was when Ollie Watkins took a shot that deflected off Ciaran Clark and into the Newcastle goal.  Perfect.  But the Magpies rescued a point when Jamal Lascelles headed in a Jacob Murphy cross on basically the last play of the match.

A point was all we could realistically hope for and given that it took a last minute tally to get even that, this didn't feel too bad.  Dennis was disappointed, not so much with the 1-1 draw, but that it was not a scoreless draw.  He was fine dropping the two points but not so happy about Martinez not getting a clean sheet.  Your priorities do change when you're not threatened with relegation and qualifying for Champions League is out the window.

A mix of good news/bad news elsewhere for the Magpies.  West Brom (0-1 to Crystal Palace), Sheffield United (0-5 to Leicester with a hat trick for EatANacho) and Fulham (0-3 to Man City) all lost so Newcastle did edge away slightly from the bottom three.  On the other hand, a pair of 2-1 wins for Burnley (over Everton) and Brighton (over Southampton) means those guys are probably safe.  No, this is looking like a two-way battle between Newcastle and Fulham.

Missed Opportunities

The top three sides all won their matches but 4th place Chelsea dropped two points in a surprising 0-0 draw that should have been a goalfest at Leeds and West Ham was shut out by Man United (clearly the Hammers missed loanee Jesse Lingard, who by rule could not play against his parent club).  Both Everton and Spurs failed to take advantage.  The Toffees fell behind at home to Burnley and never recovered.  Tottenham got the initial goal on an improbable shot from Erik Lamela (see below) before coughing up two and falling 2-1 to Arsenal.  Actually, the match didn't seem that close.  

So Man City, Man United and Leicester look like locks for the top four.  Chelsea are clear favorites for the last spot.  Liverpool (1-0 winner over Wolves), West Ham and Spurs still have slim chances.

Lamela's Rabona

Oh get your minds out of the gutter.  A rabona is a shot in which the kicking leg crosses behind the back of the standing leg.  Best if I give you an example, this week's (year's?) YouTubeableMoment.  Sure there's some luck but it has to have enough power to get there and accuracy to be on frame.  When asked in a post game interview why he even tried it, this (language!) was his Lamela's response.  Erik had an interesting day, drawing two yellows in the space of seven minutes, leaving Spurs shorthanded for the final 15 minutes of the match.  Ironically, Tottenham was probably their most threatening after going down a man.

"My Favorite Analytic Is the League Table"

That was Ryan O'Hanlon, a FiveThirtyEight contributor in a round table discussion about how bad are Liverpool.  The full conversation is here.  My second favorite quote was from Tony Chow in response to when he would start to panic:

I would be concerned if Liverpool were to lose at home to a team like … Fulham. Wait a minute …

Good back and forth about injuries, bad luck, defensive pairings, etc.

Also, some interesting discussion about how Liverpool are doing just fine in Champions League.  The same could be said of Chelsea (into final eight of CL), Arsenal and Tottenham (both looking good heading into second leg of round of 16 Europa League matches [update: well that was a jinx for Spurs]).  All four have struggled with consistency in the EPL but are going deep into the various European competitions.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve: Did you say that Chris Wilder's replacement at Sheffield United is a damn ***hole?

Dennis: No, I said they chose Heckingbottom as the interim manager.

Clever Brits

Sheffield United - Not pretty in pink

During the Leicester - Sheffield United match, with the Blades in their away kits - the announcer (either Chris Wise or Chris Sutton) emphasized the futility of Sheffield United's attack by noting that "the salmon pink is failing to move up the blue river."  Sheer poetry.

FA Cup Weekend

The FA Cup quarterfinals puts a dent in the EPL schedule for the weekend.  The shortage is only in the number of matches, not their importance.  Two key relegation related matchups and two Champions League related fixtures.

Friday has Leeds hosting Fulham at 4 pm on NBCSN (Brits don't move the clocks ahead until 3/28).  Not real big on Leeds after they trashed Karen Carney but Newcastle really do need Fulham to lose.  Saturday afternoon at 4 pm on Peacock is a big one for Newcastle as they travel to Brighton.  The Magpies are underdogs here so a draw would be a big point.  Sunday at 11 am on Peacock is West Ham hosting Arsenal.  The Gunners kept their slim hopes for Europe alive last week with the win over Spurs but need to do it again this week against the Hammers.  The second match of the day is  Aston Villa - Spurs at 3:30 on NBCSN.  Pretty much a must win for Spurs at this point.  No word from Dennis as to whether a 0-0 draw is acceptable this time.

You'll need ESPN+ to catch the FA Cup Quarterfinals on Saturday and Sunday.  Details can be had here. Don't think it's mentioned in that article but these matches are at the home parks, not neutral venues.

With crowded work schedule and international break next week, we're going to take a week off as well.

Could've Been Worse

Though not by much.  We knew that an injury-riddled Newcastle would struggle at West Brom so the 0-0 draw, though disappointing, was not surprising.  At least they got a point.  No, the real killer was Fulham's 1-0 upset over Liverpool, at Anfield no less.  Even one point for the Cottagers would have been problematic but all three?  The result was so big that it totally shifted the relegation picture.  Going into the weekend the percentages at 538 were 29% for Newcastle, 55% for Fulham; now they are 41% to 32%.  In short, the Magpies are now "favored" to go down.

There was help elsewhere but nowhere near enough to offset the damage.  The Southampton win over Sheffield United was helpful.  So too was Leicester's 2-1 win over Brighton, though the Foxes took their sweet time on that one.  They trailed for much of the match until Eat-A-Nacho Iheanacho (Ee-an-acho phonetically so Eat-A-Natcho is really not that far off) leveled things at 62 minutes and Amartey got the game winner in the 87th minute.  Arsenal's weak 1-1 draw with Burnley - another unexpected point for a relegation rival - wasn't appreciated.  

Ironically, the weekend results did lift Newcastle to 16th but with their respective schedules, both Fulham and Brighton are projected to overtake the Magpies.

Only the Inauguration Date Has Changed

Man United decided that this time they would 1) score and 2) actually beat a top six side, ending Man City's 15 game win streak with a surprising 2-0 win.  The loss only pushes back the date on which City will clinch the title.  But, it did provide a big boost to United's CL chances; they are looking solid at 90% at 538.

Chelsea were also big winners.  I had hoped for a more interesting match from Everton but the Blues dominated in a 2-0 win at Stamford Bridge.  Even though one score was an own goal and the other a PK, Chelsea were mostly in control and their CL chances are vastly improved.

West Ham (2-0 over Leeds) and Spurs (4-1 over Crystal Palace) are still in the hunt.  Jesse Lingard continued to make the case for the Best Loan of the Winter Transfer Window as he earned a PK for West Ham; we'll let it slide that the PK was actually saved because he bounced on the rebound to score anyway.  In the Tottenham win, all Harry Kane could manage was two assists for Gareth Bale and two goals for himself.  Slackard.  We'll make his marvelous strike in the 52nd minute this week's YouTubeableMoment.  On paper, Liverpool still have a shot at Champions League except their recent form has been so bad it's hard to see them rallying to get back into the top four.  They have been held scoreless at home six times since January 1 and have lost six of their last seven.  

Playing Like Neither Wants to Qualify for Europa League

Speaking of scintillating 0-0 draws, Aston Villa versus Wolves was not one of them.  Normally, we might have expected some good back-and-forth action between these two sides.  Unfortunately, Villa were still without Grealish and Cash while Wolves just haven't been the same team as the last few years.  No, they really looked like two teams that dread the prospect of finishing between 5th and 7th and getting a Europa League spot.

You're Not Making the Case You Think You're Making

Lacazette unwittingly makes the case for the defense

Late in the 1-1 Burnley-Arsenal draw, Pepe took a shot that Burnely defender Erik Pieters blocked off the line.  Andre Marriner initially decided that Pieters had used his arm and awarded a PK, plus showed a red card for DOGSO.  The VAR quickly determined that the ball had hit Peters in the shoulder so there was no infraction.  The funniest part was seeing Lacazette point on Pieters body the exact spot where the ball hit, seeming to suggest that this was an obvious penalty.  Of course, in pointing to the shoulder, Lacazette in fact confirms that VAR got it right.  Maybe the players should have to pass a test on the Laws of the Game.  Kudos to Marriner and crew on this one for a) getting the call right and b) efficient and correct use of VAR to overturn a clear and obvious error.  

Are They Buying It?

Dude, we are on to you

In the very late stages of the marvelous second leg of the Juventus-Porto Champions League round of
16 tie, we got to see one of the seamy underbellies of the current game - shameful overacting.  Porto were desperately defending, trying to hold on to advance to the quarterfinals.  There was a collision and the Porto player went down like a shot, grabbing his face like he was in agony.  After some seconds of laying (lying?) there, the camera caught him peaking from behind his hands as he checked to see whether he needed to continue the performance.  Wish I'd gotten the license plate so I could call him out by name.  But you can see the picture (right).

Other than gamesmanship like that, which was prevalent the entire match, this was a classic.  Porto came in with a 2-1 lead from the first leg.  They went up by two early in the second leg with a softish PK.  Still, Juventus was not out of the match as two goals would be enough to send it to extra time.  They got one back early in the second half.  Then, Porto got a man sent off for a second yellow (for kicking the ball away and wasting time of all things).  Surely, with a man advantage, Juve would settle this one quickly enough.  And they did level things at 63 minutes.  With nearly 30 minutes to go, Juve had plenty of time to win in regulation.  They didn't, though 30 minutes of extra time, a man up, still worked in their favor.  Except Porto had other plans and slipped a goal in under the wall on a free kick at 115 minutes (Dennis asks where was the draft excluder?).  But not over yet.  Juve got one two minutes later.  The problem was, Porto now had two away goals to Juve's one so 4-4 was not good enough.  And that next goal was not forthcoming though it was a wild finish.  

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: So you're not impressed with the midfielder West Brom got on loan?

Steve: No, I said he was Okay

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did (But Probably Shouldn't Have)

During the Manchester derby

Steve: Jesus couldn't get to the cross

Dennis: They gotta work on nailing that one down

Steve: You're saying they need to do a better job of nailing the cross to Jesus

Dennis: Precisely

Yeah, we're both going to hell...

Fillebrown Derby

The weekend kicks off with Newcastle hosting Aston Villa Friday at 3 pm on Peacock.  Dennis has graciously offered a 0-0 draw in this one, which we would both gladly take.  For me that would be an unexpected point and for him it would lessen the prospects of Europa qualification plus a clean sheet for Martinez would tie him for the league lead.  

Two best/important matches Sunday.  At 12:30 (note that we move clocks forward a few weeks before the Brits) we have the London derby with Arsenal hosting Spurs.  Both teams' Champions League chances are hanging by a thread, though the Gunners' thread is of considerably thinner gauge.  At 3:15 Man United host West Ham.  The problem for the Hammers here it that their hottest player, loanee Jesse Lingard, cannot play in the match against his parent club. Both matches are on NBCSN.

Relegation scoreboard watching will continue for me.  This means I root for Man City over Fulham (Saturday 3 pm on Peacock) and Southampton over Brighton (8 am Sunday on Peacock).  

Key Champions League contenders Leicester and Chelsea have arguably winnable matches.  Leicester are home to Sheffield United (10 am Sunday on Peacock) and should prevail there.  Chelsea travel to face the always pesky Leeds (7:30 Saturday on NBCSN) but should be able to get all three as well.  Liverpool have Wolves on Monday at 4 on NBCSN; they need all three there to keep pace.

Champions League and Europa action Tuesday-Thursday next week too so no days off for awhile.  Fortunately, we are in good viewing shape after a busy winter of watching.

Pyrrhic Draw

Newcastle season in a nutshell

A few weeks ago I noted that even though the win over Southampton cost them Callum Wilson for two months and Fabian Schar for the season, a pyrrhic win was better than a pyrrhic loss.  But Saturday's pyrrhic draw is really pushing the limit.  Sure we got a point from the 1-1 draw but lost Almiron, Saint-Maximin (both until April) and Krafth (a few weeks?) in the process.  This is a blow from which the Magpies may not recover.  Dennis notes that 62% of our goals and 53% of our assists are now out with injuries.  I note that these are 62% and 53% of small numbers to begin with.  

Plus it's not like that point really helped the cause all that match.  Coupled with Fulham's 0-0 draw with Palace, Newcastle's relegation prospects barely improved at all.  We did get help midweek when Spurs handed Fulham a 1-0 defeat despite looking more like a bottom half of the table side.  So we maintain a three point lead (with a game in hand!) and the 538 percentages are 29% and 55%, an improvement from last week's 35/47.  And yet, prospects for staying up look dim.

No CL For You. Come Back, One Year

Aston Villa likely put paid to their chances for making Champions League with a puzzling 0-1 loss to Sheffield United.  Puzzling in that even though they were without Grealish and Cash again, 1) they had shown they could manage without the duo in a 1-0 weekend win over Leeds and 2) Sheffield played a man down for over 30 minutes.  Dennis did not seem distraught.  A top half of the table finish one year after nearly being relegated is progress enough for him plus the loss reduces the likelihood of dreaded Europa League qualification.

City Rule

Man City managed two more wins while many, though not all, in the chase pack were dropping points.  They have a 14 point lead heading into the Manchester derby.   As we suggested they would, Man Tied United got a 0-0 draw with Chelsea but also came up flat in the misty mists of Selhurst Park and could only manage a 0-0 draw there as well.  Leicester dropped four points with a draw to Burnley and loss to Arsenal.  Liverpool got their win versus Sheffield but then came up scoreless at home against Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat.  And West Ham took a 2-1 loss to Man City that slows their roll down a little

Though they technically dropped two points, a draw with Man United and win over Liverpool have to go down as a good week for Chelsea; in fact, they might be the best bet for third place right now.  Everton and Tottenham both came away with six points and kept themselves in the mix.  Newcastle fans appreciate Spurs' wins over Burnley and Fulham and Everton taking the measure of West Brom and Southampton was helpful too.

Style Matters

Lee Mason got himself into a big mess in West Brom - Brighton match.  You can see the incident here.  It is not pretty.  Sounds like Mason blew the whistle to allow the kick, then realized that the West Brom keeper was still setting up the wall and blew the whistle again.  My sense is that after blowing the first whistle he realized he didn't mean to do that so he quickly blew the second whistle.  What followed was not pretty.  First, he disallowed the goal.  Then he changed his mind and allowed it.  Then, with VAR assistance, he disallowed it.  The official reason given was that the ball had not entered the goal at the time of the second whistle.  

We are left with two questions.  Should the process have been better and was this the "right" decision?  Clearly the process sucked.  No where have a read that the important thing as a referee is to get the call right on the third time of asking.  Mason needed to slow everything down before he made a final ruling; changing a call twice just doesn't cut it.  I am of two minds as to whether they ultimately got to the right place.  On the one hand, I'm not aware of any requirement that the referee has to hold up play just because the defense isn't set.  The only limitation that I'm aware of is that the attacking team can't take the kick until the referee blows the whistle.  On the other, I seriously doubt I would have blown the whistle to proceed in that situation.  It's not a quick kick anymore so I probably wait until the keeper is in position.  

Watching West Brom Is A Football Manager Scouting Opportunity

We are into April in the virtual reality of Football Manager and Forest Green have just clinched promotion to the Championship Division.  We have an annoying tendency to play down to the level of the opposition but also come up big against the key rivals.  Most recently we effectively ended the race with a convincing 2-0 win over Barnsley.

With promotion we now get vastly improved salary and transfer budgets, meaning players that previously turned their noses up at playing for Forest Green now have some interest.  Surprisingly, three of them play for West Brom in the real world.  We are hoping to land Grady Diangana and Conor Gallagher on loan for help in the midfield and are taking a long look making a transfer bid on center back Kyle Bartley - yeah the one who scored a nifty header goal versus Brighton on Saturday.  At first I'm thinking how can it make sense to be looking at players from the 19th place side in the EPL but it actually makes sense if I'm trying to strengthen a Championship Division side.  

We All See It.  We All See It.

He has blue hair.  Blue

West Brom's striker Mbaye Diagne (left) is sporting a new dye job.  Here we see some NBCSN commentators trying their best - and failing -  to let it pass without comment.  

Yellow Balls Are Gone

No, it's not a ad slogan for a masculine hygiene product.  Rather, it should replace the robin as the first sign of spring.  On 2/19, the EPL switched back from the yellow "winter" ball to a white and blue model.  I had read last fall that the yellow ball was to be in use until late March when the clocks move forward.  Apparently, they felt they didn't have to wait any longer.

My Mistake

Man City right back Kyle Woolka

After consecutive Man City matches with Peter Drury behind the mic, I now realize I have been
mispronouncing their right back's name for all these years.   I that it was Kyle Walker but Drury has set me straight - it's Kyle Woolka.  BFS regrets the error and apologizes for any confusion we may have caused.

Separated at Birth?

We know who will play Leeds manager Simon Biesla in the biopic.
Charles Nelson Reilly would be perfect in the role.  The fact that he passed away in 2007 presents a slight problem but we'll figure something out.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Dennis: Did Chelsea just score?

Steve: No, but Giroud hit the post [the Frenchman literally collided with the post after an attempted diving header]

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis (with Villa about to lose to Sheffield): I guess this is payback for the Great Occlusion

Steve: At about 10 cents on the dollar

My Mistake Part II

Seems like many of the matches I said were only available on Peacock last week ended up on NBCSN.  Not sure whether it was because Michael B called the network to raise bloody hell or I was simply wrong.  In any case, BFS regrets the error and apologizes for any confusion it may have caused.

For Newcastle, matches don't come much bigger than Sunday 7 am at West Brom (NBCSN).  The Magpies will be undermanned but three points are close to essential here, mostly because they will struggle against better sides until they get some players back.  I suppose it is possible someone will step up - Willock, Gayle, Fraser?  

The Manchester derby on Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN) looks like the match of the week.  A United loss and City have a 17 point lead.  As we've noted, United specialize in 0-0 draws against the top teams.  That result here would probably be about as good as the Red Devils could hope for.  We call your attention to Chelsea-Everton on Monday at 1 pm on NBCSN; that's a big one for both sides, though probably more important for the Toffees if they want to keep their CL hopes alive.  Spurs host Crystal Palace (Sunday 2:15 on Peacock) and can't afford less than three points in that one.  Same for West Ham hosting Leeds on Monday at 3 pm on Peacock.

On the relegation watch, we hope Liverpool can end its home scoring drought against Fulham (Sunday at 9 on NBCSN).  Wouldn't hurt if Leicester can beat Brighton and maybe Sheffield United beat or at least draw Southampton.  Arsenal can help too by beating Burnley.  

Not huge implications at this point but Aston Villa Wolves has the potential to be a good watch; hopefully at least Grealish will be back.  

Don't forget Champions League round of 16 second league action on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

So we got today off and looks like next Thursday off.  Should be enough to recover.