Math Is Becoming Our Friend

An even better slate of results than last week for Newcastle and the more we plow through the numbers, the better things look.

Podence (10) needs a shorter sleeve

We start with Friday afternoon's Fulham-Wolves contest in which almost nothing happened.  Not that we would have complained about a 0-0 draw in this one.  One thing that did happen was possibly the closest offside call of the year.  Willian Jose's header had put Wolves up 1-0 in first half stoppage time except it was overruled by VAR.  Check out the photo (right) to see how close it was. Once again, offside is binary - it's not a judgment - he's either on or off.  In the picture, he is off.  Except is that the exact moment the ball was played?  So they came out to do more nothing for another 45 minutes.  Finally, the nothingness was shattered by this goal from Adama Traore, his first EPL tally since December 2019.  Not sure how he beat the keeper near side there but it worked for us. A draw would have been fine but a Fulham loss was even more helpful.

Jacob Murphy makes it 1-1

Fast forward to 7 am Sunday morning for Newcastle's difficult fixture with Burnley at Turf Moor.  Not an awful start but at 18 minutes the Magpies were behind.  They had some good chances but went into the locker room still down 0-1.  At 57 minutes Bruce pulled the trigger, taking out Joelinton and Gayle and putting in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin.  I guess you could say it made a difference.  At 59 minutes ASM fed Jacob Murphy at the top of the box and he buried the shot.  Five minutes later, ASM takes a pass from Shelvey at midfield, winds his way down the pitch, makes a couple of moves in the box, then fires one past Pope.  Easy peasy 2-1 win.  We'll make that goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Wait, sorry, that was the ASM goal versus Burnley in the reverse fixture earlier this year.  Here's the ASM goal from this match.  Kinda similar, don't you think?

The math is rather daunting for Fulham at this point.  The percentage chances of relegation at 538 are 15% for Newcastle and 81% for Fulham.  Their remaining matches are Man United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Southampton away with Burnley and Newcastle home.  Seven points?  Maybe nine?  If the latter, Newcastle need four more. But the schedule is not exceptionally kind for the Magpies either. Liverpool, Leicester and Fulham away, with West Ham, Arsenal, Man City and Sheffield United home.  A win versus Sheffield and draw with Fulham will clearly be enough.  If Fulham come to the final week with less than six more points, a win over Sheffield will be enough.  

The Most Dangerous Lead

Apparently it is West Ham up by three.  For the third straight match the Hammers took a 3-0 lead - this time against Leicester - and then made life exciting.  They did hang on for a 3-2 win to reclaim the fourth spot they held going into the weekend.  Best Loanee Evah Jesse Lingard added two more goals; he has produced 11 (8 scored, 3 assisted) in his nine outings for West Ham.  Speaking of two goals, EatANacho got both of Leicester's goals; he has seven goals in his last four matches, and nine in his last six.  

Unfortunately, I skipped the Man City Leeds contest as the early Saturday match on Peacock.  My loss.  And Man City's.  Leeds were up 1-0 but saw Liam Cooper sent off in first half stoppage time.  Even with the advantage, City didn't equalize until the 76th minute.  Shockingly, it was Leeds that scored in stoppage time, with Stuart Dallas getting his second.  City's statistical advantage is stunning but worth zero points.  They led in possession (71-29), shots (29!!!-2), shots on target (7-2) and expected goals (3.0-.2).  This merely delays the coronation.

Grealishless Aston Villa made Liverpool work hard for a 2-1 win; Trent-Alexander's winner came in stoppage time.  That one also featured an incredibly close offside call explained here.  Man United took all three from Spurs in a match with a good bit of snarl to it.  Son had given Spurs a 1-0 lead but a rare tally from Fred, then a diving header from Cavani put the Reds back in front.  Tottenham did have some decent chances in the closing minutes but couldn't convert.  Greenwood's stoppage time goal made it a 3-1 final, which might flatter Man United a bit.  Better effort from Spurs than the Newcastle outing but their Champions League chances are dropping like a stone.  Chelsea kept themselves in the picture with a comfortable 4-1 pasting of Crystal Palace.

Who's Wearing Flip Flops?

Certainly Crystal Palace looked ready for the beach in their lackluster showing against Chelsea.  Same for Southampton, who were steamrollered 3-0 by West Brom.  That match provided us with a second time to use the word occlusion in connection with VAR.  As detailed here, the cameras were not able to get a definitive placement of the lines for a VAR review of an offside goal.  Since there was no conclusive evidence, the offside call was not reversed and the goal was disallowed.  Maybe not as consequential as the Great Occlusion that helped Aston Villa avoid relegation last year but again we see the limits of VAR.

For the Baggies this looks like too little too late.  The win dropped their relegation chances from 99 to 97%. Where are more points going to come from?  Remaining matches include Leicester, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Leeds away with Wolves, Liverpool and West Ham at home. Maybe few points left but also could be none.  Do you see at least eight points there?  Me neither.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Steve [as ASM and Wilson go in for Gayle and Joelinton]: Don't consider myself a tactical genius but if part of the problem has been getting service to the forwards, how does replacing both forwards help?

Dennis [after ASM sets up Murphy within 2 minutes of entering match]: "Not a tactical genius" is correct

Dennis [after ASM scores 5 minutes after that]: Boy do you look dumb

In my defense, ASM did not play as a forward but more like a number 10.  Further, note that on his goal, he did all the work himself, taking the ball at midfield and creating the goal from there.  Probably reveals my bias about Steve Bruce that I assumed he was making a straight swap when he fact he was also changing the formation or at least the player roles.  On the other hand, how much credit does a coach deserve for seeing his team's fortunes change after he puts in his two best players?

Union Coast

Monteiro had two goals and two assists

Though they had the advantage, bringing a 1-0 lead to Subaru Park, the Union's Round of 16 Concacaf
Champions League tie with Saprissa was far from finished.  They had several good chances while looking solid in defense in a scoreless first half.  Then the floodgates opened.  Fontana was fouled at the top of the box and Monteiro converted the PK in the 47th minute.  You had the sense that this would be enough but the Union kept going.  Four minutes later Monteiro set up shuhBILLkoh for a solid header and three minutes after that set up Fontana for a nicely placed shot.  The Cape Verdean completed the night with his second in stoppage time.  The 4-0 final (5-0 on aggregate) does not flatter the Union - they dominated the second half.  Saprissa was definitely compromised with injuries and covid.  Still, the solid showing in their first Champions League action is a big positive.  

Two Out of Three Ain't Bad (apologies to Meat Loaf)

The away sides definitely had the better of things in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal match-ups.  In two cases, it was enough but in two others, it was not.  On Tuesday Porto managed an away goal against Chelsea, as did Bayern versus PSG.  But in both, this was not enough to win on aggregate, with Chelsea earning a 2-1 win and PSG advancing with a 3-3 draw based on more away goals.  On Wednesday, Real Madrid got pushed around a bit by Liverpool but held the Reds to a 0-0 draw so they take that one 3-1 on aggregate.  Man City had to work harder against Dortmund.  The Germans were actually in a position to advance based on an early goal.  Then two away goals from City put things to rest based on a 4-2 aggregate.

So two of the three EPL sides advance to the semi-finals.  Chelsea will face Real Madrid and Man City will take on PSG.  Matches are 4/27-28 and 5/4-5.   

Tyneside Tilt

BFS Referee Consultant Graham R picked up on point made in the Newcastle-Tottenham match - the pitch at St. James' Park slopes down North to South (i.e. towards the Gallowgate End).  As detailed here (see number 15.), the original slope was 18 feet, which sounds like some of the venues we encountered in Inter-County travel soccer.  As I read this (see 27.3), the maximum gradient allowed by the EPL is 1:41.  If I have my math right, that means you can have as much as 9 feet on a typical 120-yard long pitch.  That seems like a lot.

Also, this means Newcastle have been going downhill for a long time, but we knew that.

EPL, FA Cup and MLS

Busy times ahead.

The FA Cup semi-finals cut into the EPL weekend action but they make up for it with four mid-week matches.  So there'll be at least one EPL match for 11 straight days.  Plus FA Cup plus the start of MLS.

First to the important stuff.  Neither Newcastle or Fulham should really be expecting any points.  The Magpies host West Ham (Saturday 7:30 on NBCSN) and Fulham travel to London to face Arsenal (Sunday at 8:30 on NBCSN).  Expected points are .99 and .90 respectively, which means if the two sides match results, Newcastle's odds will get a little worse.  Draws in both would be fine with me.  Newcastle might want to man mark Jesse Lingard.  Just sayin'.

Odds suggest that the Champions League standings shouldn't change this week, with maybe one exception.  Certainly the top three look safe.  Man City (away to Aston Villa - Wednesday at 3:15 pm on NBCSN), Man United (hosting Burnley Sunday at 11 on NBCSN), and Leicester (hosting West Brom Thursday at 3 pm on NBCSN) are solid favorites.  Fourth to six - West Ham, Chelsea (hosting Brighton Tuesday at 3 pm on Peacock) and Liverpool (at Leeds Monday 3 pm on NBCSN)  - probably get wins too.  Spurs can take advantage of a quirk in the schedule to get six points while the others get three.  First they have Everton on Friday at Goodison Park (3 pm NBCSN) then get Southampton at home Wednesday at 1 pm on Peacock.  Sure it means they'll have played an extra match but if they can get closer in points, maybe there's a psychological advantage.  Grasping at straws?  

Flip-flop special of the week is Wolves - Sheffield United Saturday at 3:15 on Peacock.  Neither side has much to play for there.

I couldn't find TV coverage for the FA Cup semi-finals so you'll need ESPN+ to watch those.  Saturday's 12:30 match between Chelsea and Man City looks tight.  City are still in line for the unprecedented quad (EPL, League Cup, FA Cup and Champions League).  Chelsea, except for the weird performance against West Brom have not been giving up too many goals.  The Sunday match in Leicester - Southampton at 1:30.  Both sides have been shaky in league play recently but Leicester is favored.  

The traditional MLS regular season pits the MLS Cup winner versus the Supporters Shield winner.  Hey, that's us!  The Union travel to Columbus to face the Crew Sunday at 5:30 on FS1.  More national exposure for our boys.  We are still getting respect at 538, who have the Union ranked first in the East.  They have this match as basically a draw; that seems like a good result on the road against the Crew.

Good thing we're already in mid-season viewing condition.