Reliably Wrong?

 A few weeks ago we were ready to concede the EPL title to Man City.  That hasn't panned out yet.  Last week we told you Liverpool were ready to challenge for a Champions League spot and they promptly lost to Bournemouth.  There were three goals in the Newcastle-Wolves match and the Magpies won what we thought would likely be a scoreless draw.  As much as the fan in me likes these results, I would like to have bit better track record on this kind of stuff.

Goals and Three Points

Alexander Isak (pronounced E-sock) starts and scores
for Newcastle against Wolves (photo: Getty Images)

Two things that have been missing from recent Newcastle matches.  Many positives to take away from 2-1 win over Wolves, the Magpies' first league win since mid-January.  They did look much more dangerous with E-sock and Murphy up top; E-sock's header off a Trippier cross was nice.  Newcastle probably should have had more than a 1-0 lead at halftime.  Also good news that Almiron entered the match late and ended his drought with the game winner in the 80th minute (this week's YouTubeableMoment).  On balance, they looked the better side and the xG seems to back that up.

Except we can't gloss over the poor refereeing decision related to Pope's challenge in the box. You can see the play here (should open at 1:23 of the clip)   Sure looks like a foul, a PK and probably DOGSO, right?  Madley did not call it on the field and did not even make a trip to the monitor.  We believe in a high threshold for overturning a call on the field but that one was one of the more clear and obvious errors we can remember.  Also, there was pretty sloppy defending on the Wolves' equalizer.  We don't want to go all "dark cloud behind the silver lining" here, just don't think we should go overboard.  A good result that maybe they can build on.

Adam Smith and the Invisible Hand[ball] (apologies to, well,  Adam Smith)

Turns out the non-call on Pope wasn't the worst refereeing decision of the weekend.  With Bournemouth working on a 1-0 upset of heavily favored Liverpool there was a Liverpool cross into the box went off defender Adam Smith.  Referee John Brooks signaled for a corner.  You can see the play here (should open at 6:37 of the clip).  VAR told Brooks to go to the monitor and after reviewing the play, he changed his call to handling.  Two problems here.  First, Brooks' initial decision looks correct.  Yes the ball did hit Smith's arm.  Yes his arm was extended from his body.  But here's the rule again in case you forgot.  It is an offense (sorry, offence) if a player:

touches the ball with their hand/arm when it has made their body unnaturally bigger. A player is considered to have made their body unnaturally bigger when the position of their hand/arm is not a consequence of, or justifiable by, the player’s body movement for that specific situation. By having their hand/arm in such a position, the player takes a risk of their hand/arm being hit by the ball and being penalised

Somewhere, Rasheed Wallace is smiling (photo BT Sports

Smith's arm is not in an unnatural position for a player who has made a big leap and is using his arms for balance as he comes down.  Not handling for me.  However, I wouldn't be as bothered if Brooks had signaled for a PK as his original call.  No, what really stinks here is that he went to VAR and overturned what was not a clear and obvious error.  Fortunately, all's well that ends well.  Mo Salah stepped up and send the shot well left.  Ball don't lie indeed.  Bournemouth hung on for the slim victory and a precious three points in their fight against relegation.  Liverpool, on the other hand, looked to have used up all the mojo they had gathered up in the last few weeks.

Relegation Becoming A Black Hole

After the weekend's results, nine sides - nearly half the league - are fully engaged in the relegation struggle.  After losses to Man City and Brighton, Crystal Palace are (somewhat remarkably still) 12th in the table but are just three points out of 18th.  A mere five points separate 12th from 20th place.  Bournemouth based on the upset mentioned above and Everton with a 1-0 win over Brentford  markedly improved their survival odds, though both remain among the top four contenders to go down.  Southampton managed a 0-0 draw against Man United - no doubt aided by MUN playing much of the match down a man - but then lost 0-2 to Brentford mid-week; they are back in the cellar.  Nottingham Forest continue to fall faster than a tech bank's stock; though they still sit outside the bottom three even after the 1-3 loss to Tottenham, they have the second worst odds for going down.

West Ham got a 1-1 draw with Aston Villa, which was just enough to keep them out of the relegation zone, at least for this week.  That match featured what we rank as the third worst call of the week.  With Villa up 1-0, Paqueta cleverly drew a foul on Bailey in the box and Benrahma converted the PK.  Dennis and I, both entirely unbiased here, thought there was reason to overturn the call.  However, unlike the Smith handling call, they did adhere to a higher standard in deciding whether or not to change the call and let the original call stand.  

For those keeping score at home, here are the percentage chances of relegation calculated at 538 for the last two weeks:

In other news, Arsenal and Man City won.

Europe Stuff

Man City made hash of Red Bull Leipzig 7-0 to advance 8-1 on aggregate.  Liverpool could make no headway on Real Madrid, falling 1-0 for an aggregate final loss of 6-2.  So Chelsea and Man City are the only EPL sides remaining.  Quarterfinal draw is Friday.

Take it for Granit - Xhaka has no class (Getty Images)

In Europa League, Man United mostly coasted on their 4-1 cushion over Real Betis from the first leg; they took a 1-0 win in the second leg for a 5-1 win on aggregate.  Arsenal did not fare so well.  First, they came into the second leg level with Sporting 2-2.  After scoring early - a goal from Xhaka after which he showed his class by thumbing his nose (presumably at Sporting fans), Sporting leveled with this incredible score from just under 50 yards out.  The Gunners had some good chances but ended up losing on PKs.

Another Bite at the Apple

More fun watching the Union on MLS Season Pass.  I was streaming on my phone (Android, not Apple, but you knew that) and wanted to cast to the TV.  No can do because it wouldn't cast from my phone to the Chromecast on my TV.  I need to get another phone app, AirDroid Cast Web.  So I ended up watching on my computer.  BFS Music Director Chris Z suggests that there may be a Roku device that could solve the problem plus make my dumb TV smart.  We'll see.

Playing to the Opposition?

Pretty much everything about the Union - Chicago match suggests that a draw would have been a fair result so in some ways the 1-0 win, snatched with a 90th minute goal from Torres was maybe more than we deserved.  Union did have more possession but shots were 14/12, shots on goal were 3/2 and xG was 1.20/1.25.  The Union possession advantage probably has more to do with the fact that Chicago played a man down from 50 minutes on.  This was frustrating to watch.  We have no reason to think Chicago are much improved over last year so this should have been a much easier match, especially at 11 v 10.  Oh, and Andre Blake got hurt and had to leave the game.  Even the late game winner from Torres looks weird; seen here, I think the shot was deflected and the keeper also misplayed it.  Really, the only thing good here is that despite how awful it looked, the win was still worth three points.

Tuesday's second leg of the Concacaf Champions League tie with Alianza went much better.  Didn't get to see it but was following on Gamecast.  Looked like the Union were the better side for the first half but had nothing to show for it until a Damian Lowe header in stoppage time.  Things went better in the second half and they coasted to a 4-0 win.  They move on to the quarterfinals where they will take on Liga MX's Atlas.

Abbreviated Schedule

We still get 10 games this weekend but six are EPL and four are FA Cup quarterfinal matches.  The FA Cup schedule is here.

With nearly half the league facing the threat of relegation, it becomes redundant to point out the relegation relevant contests this weekend.  It's all of them. 

The weekend gets a start with our favorite - Friday afternoon football. Newcastle travel to face Nottingham Forest (4 pm on USA).  This really should be three points for the Magpies, especially given Forest's recent form.  Of course, it doesn't mean it will be.  I would like to see Esock start again.

There are four matches Saturday at 11.  Our recommendation is Wolves - Leeds.  These are two sides in the thick of the relegation battle and 538 has it at 38/35/28, or slightly favoring Wolves but suggesting a tight contest.  Other choices are Southampton - Spurs (that's the one picked for USA), Brentford - Leicester and Aston Villa - Bournemouth.   Despite the FA Cup match, there is still a 1:30 Saturday feature match between Chelsea - Everton.  There's only one match on Sunday - a London derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  Everything there says blow out (Palace awful recent form, Gunners may be loaded for bear after Europa League loss, etc) so it will probably be a close match.

The Union have a tricky match against Montreal Saturday at 7:30 (on you-know-what TV).  I would be very happy if they came home from a draw on this one.

Monday is the beginning of an international break so we won't have any mid-week league or cup matches in England.  Looks like the MLS will still have a full slate of matches next weekend though.

Believe or not, I think I could use the break.  I say that now but by Wednesday I'll be wondering where all the football went.