We're Gonna Need a Bigger Sympathy Card

Newcastle get a draw in a must-win match.  Late game heroics in several of the other matches.  I am forced to conclude that while all draws are worth one point, they are not equal.  Man City continue to play in a League of Their Own.  And, the EPL is set for a two-week break.

Won't Get There at This Rate

Chris Wood sums up his Newcastle debut with one look

Newcastle didn't exactly play with the desperation of a team that has little time left to make a push to get out of the drop zone.  Sure, the first half against Watford was okay, including a shot off the cross bar by Joe L Linton and newcomer Chris Wood had a few chances.  But you wouldn't say it was overwhelming.  Another basically individual effort from Allen Saint-Maximin early in the second half did get the Magpies a slim lead.  From there, things were pretty bad. For the rest of the match, Watford were able to ghost past the Newcastle defense at will.  Dennis, though well past his prime a shadow of his former self having maybe lost a step, thought he might have gotten by them once or twice.  Plus, we were more than happy to make not just errant passes but passes right to Watford players.  The tying goal was inevitable.  That it came in the 87th minutes with three points in sight is frustrating for sure but Newcastle clearly did not do enough to earn the win here.  At home against the 4th worst defense in the league, they could only manage a single goal and just one shot on target.  No, everything says the 1-1 draw was the "right" result.

Looking at the glass as 1/100ths full, at least they did not lose the match so they remain just two points behind Watford.  Kieran Trippier is definitely helping out; Chris Wood, though he didn't have a great game, shows some promise of being able to generate some scoring chances.  Also, we have to believe that the poor defensive showing will lead the new ownership that they really have no choice but to overpay for at least one new center back.  And add another midfielder please - ASM can't do this alone.      

No Help From Others

Norwich broke their scoring drought with two early tallies against Everton.  We note that the first was actually an own goal from Michael Keane.  The Toffees got one back but the final was 2-1.  Thanks guys.  Though I didn't see the match, the stats say maybe Everton were a bit unlucky.  In any case, the result was enough to get Rafa Benitez sacked.  They are just six points above the drop zone and in total disarray.  That's a post mortem I may need to investigate.  What happened to this franchise?  A quick look at game-by-game says it doesn't look like bad luck based on expected goals.  Certainly the defense is suspect.  In their last five matches they've managed to lose to Norwich, Crystal Palace and Brighton but beat Arsenal and draw with Chelsea.  Puzzling indeed.

Meanwhile, a hat trick by Jack Harrison (don't worry if you don't recognize the name) gave Leeds all three points in a 3-2 win over West Ham.  I ended up watching this over the Liverpool - Brentford match and it was highly entertaining for the neutral, with the Hammers rallying to tie the match twice.  Would have been entertaining if not for the fact that the win put Leeds 10 points ahead the Magpies.

I'm sure some expression about helping those who help themselves applies here but I can't remember exactly what it is.

Somewhere the Sun Is Shining

Jacob Ramsey halves the deficit against Man United
Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images

One of those somewheres would be Birmingham.  We thought Aston Villa could give Man United a tough time and they did, though they waited a while to do it.  They even spotted the Red Devils an early goal, an incredible mistake from the usually reliable Martinez.  They slowly built back into the match and at worst played the visitors even from there.  Except a sloppy giveaway and a Fernandes shot from the top of the box at 67 minutes put the Villa in a big 0-2 hole.  With the introduction of Philippe Coutinho right after that, all did not seem hopeless.  Sure enough Coutinho provided the buildup play that led to Jacob Ramsey's first goal of the season.  Now a draw seemed eminently doable and the tying goal indeed followed within four minutes.  Check out the passes from Buendia to Ramsey and Ramsey to Coutinho that led to the equalizer - an easy call for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  They gave Coutinho Player of the Match but for me it was Ramsey.  The whole thing was a great antidote to what had transpired in the 10 am games.  This was at minimum what Villa deserved; in fact they edged United in several key stats - shots on goal, possession, expected goals.

We are Targett fans but Lucas Digne is probably an improvement at left back.  Coutinho looks like he will fit in well, possibly raising Buendia's game to the level we think it could be.  Geez, maybe not this year but with Steven Gerrard, these new additions, and maybe a couple more transfers (holding midfielder maybe?), this team can make some noise.

Bergwijn probably not headed for Ajax now
Photo: Action Images via Reuters

Another of those somewheres would be Leicester, though not for the home side.  After pretty much
outplaying the host Foxes, Tottenham found themselves down late.  A shot off the cross bar, two cleared off the line by defenders, that kind of day.  So the match enters stoppage time with the score 2-1.  From there it becomes the Steven Bergwijn show as he scores twice in the final minutes to allow Tottenham to grab all three points.  This would be the same Bergwijn possibly on his way to Ajax in the January window.  Check out the game highlights here (hat tip Michael B).  The video supports the stats that say this was actually no less than Spurs deserved here; xG was 3.65 - 1.45.  And they now sit fifth in the table, one point behind West Ham with three (!) games in hand.  Getting greedy, Spurs fans might note that they have four games in hand over Chelsea and wins in all would move them ahead of the Blues and into third. 

Reality Did Not Disappoint

I love it when actual results do not spoil a BFS talking point.  I'm sure the TV guys don't read the blog but they pointed out multiple times during the Brighton - Chelsea match that the Seagulls have fewer losses than any but the top three sides.  The good news is that it stayed that way, though late game heroics were required in both of Brighton's fixtures this week.  They pushed Crystal Palace all over the place on Friday but were still down a goal late.  Continued pressure led to an own goal from Palace and though less than maybe they deserved, Brighton at least got a 1-1 draw out of that one.  Back home against Chelsea on Tuesday, they perhaps had the run of play, or at least played the Blues even. Check out the goal from Webster here that tied the match.  Stats again say, at minimum, Brighton earned a draw.  Back when Newcastle had to fight off Brighton for relegation this might have pissed me off but this year the Seagulls are so far ahead I was able to revel in the result.

A League of One

Man City did not exactly take Chelsea apart but the 1-0 win was enough to give them a 13 point cushion over the Blues. Chelsea only managed one shot on target.  Liverpool's win on Sunday reduced the gap between first and second down to a mere 11 points.  Surely, the title race is over?  Maybe, and please don't call me Shirley.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Graham: Newcastle - Watford is a decidedly ugly match so I am choosing to do chores

Steve: Watching Newcastle is a chore

Another Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: This is weird, Ronaldo is being subbed out for Maguire

Steve: No, it's like for like.  One player I don't like being replaced by another player I don't like

Maybe This Is Why They Spend So Much Time Rolling Around on the Ground in Pain

Unless you were paying close attention to Newcastle - Watford (and seriously, why would you have been?), you might have missed referee Paul Tierney retrieve and hand something back to a Watford player.  About the size of a cell phone, it turned out to be one of the player's shin guards.  Well geez, no wonder it hurts when you get kicked.  Might as well stick an index card in your socks.  To quote Ted Lasso, "why y'all even bother?"

Fun With Statistics

Last week we posted a graph with EPL Covid testing results, showing the late December - January spike.  The graph was based on information from this site.  Some observers might say, wait a minute, of course the number of positives increased because look at the number of tests.  So is the spike just a function of increased testing and not an increased presence of the virus?  For two reasons, I think it's real.  First, look at the positivity rates.  Even accounting for increased testing, the rate of positive tests is still higher in every week in December and January than November.  

Second, though I can't confirm this, I have to believe that the increased number of tests is based on players getting tested more frequently (three times a week instead of once?), not that more people are getting tested.  That would mean that the incidence per player did in fact jump in December.  As in, if the population getting tested is unchanged but the number of positive tests in that population increase,  it's not a function of increased testing.  The good news is the positivity rate is declining again.

Another Six Pointer

Interesting stuff up and down the table, including a second straight "must-win" match for Newcastle against Leeds.  The problem with this one is that realistically, a draw would be about as good as we can expect out of trip to Elland Road, especially since there will likely be no help coming on the defensive front via the transfer window before Saturday's match.  This could be a high scoring affair, at least for one side.

The weekend begins with a Relegation Special on Friday afternoon at 3 on USA featuring Watford  and Norwich.  Unfortunately for Newcastle, while the best result would be a draw, the Hornets are likely to get all three here.  We'll be getting up early Saturday for Saturday, Everton - Aston Villa (7:30 Peacock), which 538 says is close but should it be?  This is another "statement" match for Villa.  Sure it's at Goodison Park but you have to believe that these are two teams heading in opposite directions and a draw would be a disappointing result for Villa

Three 10 am matches and you have to question USA's choice here.  There's an excellent battle for fourth going on and two of the contenders - West Ham and Man United - play at 10.  So why is that match shunted to Peacock to make room for Leeds - Newcastle?  Brentford -Wolves (Peacock) is your third alternative.  The NBC feature at 12:30 is Southampton - MCI; hard to see the Saints putting a dent in Man City's title hopes.

Sunday is a mixed bag.  Three are at 9 am.   Arsenal should be able to handle Burnley, who might be a little rusty.  Ditto for Liverpool and  Crystal Palace, even if it's at Selhurst Park.  Then there's Leicester - Brighton, which at King Power looks like the very definition of an even match up.  That's probably the one we'll watch.  The weekend closes with a London derby between Chelsea and Spurs.  Chelsea have had trouble winning in league play of late but they did beat Tottenham in both legs of the Carabao Cup semi-final.  We'll see if Spurs get momentum from the crazy win at Leicester.

Then we pause, at least for the EPL, for a two-week winter break.  But despair not, for CONCACAF WC qualifying resumes for three matches during the break.  The USMNT have a home match vs El Salvador (1/27 at 7:30), an away fixture with Canada (1/30 at 3:05) and another home game with Honduras (2/2 at 7:30).  Looks like the US better get a minimum of seven points from these three fixtures.    

Okay, it's not what we're used to but it's not like there won't be anything to watch.

PS - Carabao Cup final will be Chelsea - Liverpool after the Reds beat Arsenal 2-0 in the second leg of their semi-final.  Final will be February 27th.