Blackouts, Drones and Red Carded Managers

But that's not the weird part.  No, the weird part is Newcastle won their match with Leeds.  That was one of several we got wrong last week here at BFS.  This is not necessary a bad thing. We also did get some things spot on.

DW=WD

Shelvey's free kick was the difference at Leeds

So we end up drawing Watford at home but beating Leeds away.  Though not how we planned it, the equation shows that it's four points either way.  While still firmly entrenched in the relegation zone, especially given that most of the others have games in hand, the signs of life are encouraging.

As the 1-0 final indicates, this was not a thumping of Leeds but nor was it a "smash and grab."  The goal (seen here) was on the lucky side.  As expected, Leeds dominated possession but other stats were close; xG was 1.5 - 1.35 favor of the Magpies.  Watching live, this was much more encouraging than the Watford contest, with the defense looking much tighter.  Much work to be done but definitely a happier weekend.

Six Percent More of a Title Race

Southampton fail to "fermez Laporte" and Man City level
 the match at 1-1 (Photo by Glyn KIRK / AFP)

Contrary to our prediction in last week's post, Southampton did put a dent in Man City's title hopes. But how big a dent?  I realize the USA studio crew has to talk up their product but they were awfully quick to say the title race was back on after Man City could only manage a 1-1 draw at Southampton while Liverpool were disposing of Crystal Palace 3-1.  Yes, that was two dropped points. Still means they've taken 37 of the last 39 on offer.  Yes, Liverpool has a game in hand versus Leeds and assuming the Reds win that, the lead would be down to six points.  Let's check in at 538 to see how their prediction of Man City's chances have changed over recent weeks.  Before the weekend, the model had Man City at 88% and Liverpool at 12%.  After the draw, City's chances dropped to 82% with Liverpool moving up to 17%.  Doesn't feel like a major shift in the odds to me.

Power Failure at Watford

Hoo boy, talk about your metaphors.  Norwich were already up a goal in the relegation six-pointer with Watford when the lights went out at Vicarage Road.  Well, not all of them.  Actually, it didn't even look all that dark.  In fact, after a while, everybody agreed to continue.  But things just got worse for Watford.  American Josh Sargent, who scored the first goal on a "bet you can't do that again goal" (seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment), added a second.  Dennis got sent off with his second yellow.  Norwich added a third in stoppage time to complete the 3-0 pasting.  We'll happily admit that we got this one wrong.

The loss also proved to be lights out for Claudio Ranieri, who himself was an in-season replacement all the way back in October.  He'll be replaced by Roy Hodgson, last seen at Selhurst Park managing Crystal Palace.  The major talking point for him is that he has never suffered relegation in the Premier League.  Neither has Pep Guardiola but Hodgson's degree of difficulty is much higher having worked with the likes of Fulham, Crystal Palace and West Brom.  This one looks bleak until you consider that 1) he takes over just two points from safety and 2) he probably only needs to beat Burnley, Norwich, Newcastle to avoid the drop.  Maybe throw Everton in there too.  Not saying it's going to be easy but it definitely could be worse.

If It Quacks Like A Draw

It's a draw.  Last week we suggested that Leicester-Brighton looked like the very definition of a tie.  The final was 1-1.  The stats, other than maybe possession couldn't be closer; possession was 44/56, shots were 15/14, shots on target were 5/5 and corners were 4/5. Expected goals were 1.6-1.4.  Brighton were down 0-1 but a late goal from Danny Welbeck gave us the seemingly inevitable result.  

So Brighton go into the winter break with just the four losses.  The bad news is that they only have six wins.  They aren't losing but they aren't winning either and therefore have a league high 12 draws.  

Aston Villa Continue to Climb

Another one we got "right' was Villa taking all three points at Everton.  This was not a thing of beauty and there's an argument to be made that the Villans were lucky to come away with the 1-0 win.  Stats have a slight Everton edge, including xG at 1.55-.9. They actually looked better against Man United the previous week than they did at Goodison Park as the Toffees suffocated Aston Villa's attack.  Buendia's header goal in first half stoppage time was the difference.  Forgetting how it looked, this is a win that Villa wasn't usually able to pull off until Gerrard got there.

A quick word on Buendia's goal.  You can see it here, but our focus is more on Jon Champion's quick criticism of Buendia's celebration and the behavior of some of the Everton fans. We are big fans of Champion's work in the booth but we think he got this one wrong (Tim Howard back in the studio agreed).  First, it was not all that provocative a celebration.  Second, exactly where is he supposed to go?  Third, nothing - nothing - justifies throwing crap at the players on the field.  Not been a good year at Goodison Park and this was another stain.  

Concussions, Drones and Red Cards

Injuries plus a drone equals 19 minutes of first half stoppage time

Wrapped up as we were with Newcastle, we did not get to see weirdness at Brentford as the Bees took on Wolves.  A nasty collision in the first half required a lengthy stoppage and two concussion subs for Brentford.  The match was then interrupted by the appearance of a drone over the stadium.  Those who took the over on first half stoppage time at 18 minutes were winners (see picture).

There were problems with the referees communication system that delayed the start of the second half.  Then there was the VAR incident in which Peter Bankes stopped play to show the Wolves Toti a red card.  Lee Mason suggest Bankes review and he changed his mind.  But that wasn't what annoyed Brentford; they felt that Bankes should have played advantage there as the Bees were on the attack.  However, the advice to referees is that if it's a red card foul, you only continue if there is a "clear opportunity to score." Sure the Bees were had a promising attack but there were at least four Wolves defenders in the box so this was no obvious goal scoring opportunity.  Then Wolves had a goal in stoppage time ruled out for offside.

The fun did not end with the final whistle.  There were some "discussions" between a few of the Wolves and Brentford players.  Brentford manager Thomas Frank appeared to "insert" himself into those discussions.  I'm not entirely sure but I believe he got a yellow for his behavior there, then got a second yellow for his comments to Bankes after getting the first yellow.  Yeah, not his best day.  And a 2-1 win for Wolves.

No Mo'

Seems that Chelsea have Spurs number this year.  We thought maybe the crazy mid-week comeback against Leicester was going to spark Tottenham but that did not happen and Chelsea clearly deserved the 2-0 win.  Not helpful for Spurs was Marcus Rashford's 93rd minute goal that allowed Man United to steal all three points against West Ham.  A 0-0 draw there would have been perfect.  Their situation however was helped by Arsenal's 0-0 draw with Burnley; I sped through the DVR of that one to see that the Gunners pretty well dominated but could not break through.  

Man United's win gets them fourth place for the moment but only by one over West Ham and two over Arsenal and Tottenham.  Again, games in hand tend to complicate the analysis but basically if you take those into account, you might conclude that Spurs are actually in a pretty good place.  Also note that the two biggest gaps in the table continue to be between 1st and 2nd (nine points) and 3rd and 4th (also nine points).

Like Forecasting Snowstorms in Philly

Following the January transfer window has been like tracking winter storm forecasts - anything information that's more than four hours old is probably useless.  One minute it looks like we'll get Lingard, the next minute we're getting a coating rather than 5 inches of snow.  Now I hear we're getting Thomas Muller and 18 inches of snow.  WTF?  

I did get excited about the prospect of getting Bruno Guimaraes from Lyon based on reports that he was getting a medical.  Then Lyon angrily denied that anything had been agreed to.  Here's an incredibly ridiculous statement from the website Geordie Boot Boys:

It appears that an agreement with Lyon is all that separates Newcastle and Guimaraes. It has previously been reported that he is keen on a move to St James’ Park.

Yes, and all that separates Ukraine and Russia from settling their differences is an agreement to even talk to each other.  Okay, to be fair, the second required part of a transfer - that the player wants to move to the new team -  doesn't appear to be an issue.  Shortly before posting, news came in that the deal for Guimaraes was sealed.  This looks good for the Magpies - a 24 year-old defensive midfielder who's been averaging a 7.15 rating in 20 Ligue 1 matches this year.

The window closes on Monday.  Still holding out hope for a center back (Marcao from Galatasary?) and attacking midfielder would make the window complete.

Fuzzy Math

Looking at the table after the Match Week 23 results were in, I was puzzled that there was Chelsea with 24 matches played.  Huh?  How does that happen?  First, Chelsea have not had any matches postponed due to Covid-19.  Second, because of their scheduled participation in the FIFA World Club Cup (WCC) in February, their match with Brighton was moved up to January 18.  Diving into Chelsea's calendar a little further, they have six fixtures in February and just one league match,  February 5th is FA Cup against Plymouth, the 9th is the WCC semi, the 12th is the WCC final (or 3rd place match), the 19th is EPL vs Crystal Palace, the 22nd is first leg of Champions League Round of 16 vs Lille, and they conclude the month on the 27th with the Carabao Cup Final against Liverpool.  They have been and will be a busy squad.  Wait a minute.  Right now, they are technically in the running for five possible trophies - the EPL (well, at least not mathematically eliminated yet), the WCC, the Champions League, the Carabao Cup and the Champions League.

Union Hot Stove 

Our phonetic phavorite, Catspurr shuhBILLkoh, has left the Union for Chicago. Mixed feelings but on balance this is probably the right thing for both sides.  He was somewhat annoyed at not getting guaranteed contracts like some of the others.  On the other hand, we can recall that along with the goals came extended scoring droughts.  Just hope he doesn't beat the crap out of us when we face the Fire.

The club wasted no time in bringing in a replacement, as today they announced the signing of Mikael Uhre from Brondby of the Danish top division. Detailed article on Uhre can be had here.  Checking him out at whoscored.com, I see this season he has scored 11 goals in 16 Danish Superliga games.  I do note that he's only played the full 90 minutes three times in those 16 matches.  But in sum, it looks like a great move for the Union.

Here's To You Mr. Robinson (apologies to Simon and Garfunkel and hat tip to John Champion)

Antonee Robinson got the only goal in US v El Salvador

The US Men's National Team did not wow anybody Thursday night but did come away with a 1-0 thanks to a timely goal from Antonee Robinson.  This was a rather ragged affair, with the El Salvardoran press making life difficult for the US.  There were fouls a plenty - 18 for the US, 17 for El Salvador.  The good news is the US allowed only six shots, none on target.  Still, they will have to put up a better performance if they want a result against Canada on Sunday afternoon.

Quiet weekend ahead which will allow us to focus on the Millrose Games.