Embarrassing But Irrelevant

Is how Dennis described FA Cup losses by Newcastle - and other Premier League sides - to lower tier teams.  Some transfer news to go with mid-week league and League Cup games so there's much to talk about.

It Pays To Increase Your Word Power

be·reft

/bəˈreft/

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adjective

1. 1.

   deprived of or lacking (something).
2. 
   

Newcastle were not beaten by guy in a wheelchair

As in, Newcastle were bereft of quality in the final third against League One Cambridge.  They had plenty of chances in the first half but couldn't convert.  To be fair, some of that was due to good saves by the Cambridge keeper Dimitar Mitov - as in that shot "might of" gone in if not for some solid work by the keeper.  As the match wore on, it seemed like the chances became fewer and fewer.  The stats say Newcastle dominated the match but that's not what it looked like to me.  Eventually Cambridge broke through on a goal by Ironside  (the player, not the 60's TV detective) in the 56th minute; the initial attack was good but the play was not cleaned up well and Newcastle paid for it.  I recall a few good chances in closing minutes but also the feeling that they could have played for three days and still not scored.

Early departures from the FA Cup are not new to the Magpies.  This one is more distressing in that their play against a clearly inferior side revealed continuing weaknesses that, if not addressed, will surely end in relegation.  And please don't call me Shirley.

FA Cup Round Three By the Numbers

Newcastle were not the only top tier side to fall in this round.  Overall, Premier League sides were 14-6 this weekend.  Three of those get a pass of sorts in that they lost to other Premier League teams - Leeds to West Ham, Watford to Leicester and Aston Villa to Man United.  That excuse is not available to Burnley, who fell 1-2 to Huddersfield and Arsenal who lost 0-1 to Nottingham Forest.  At least those are Championship Division clubs, not like Cambridge.

Speaking of the Championship Division, they were 12-12 in this round.  League One went 3-5 while League Two was 1-7.  The four "non-league" sides still in went a respectable 2-2.  This included sixth tier Kidderminster Harriers (and who doesn't like a Harrier?) beating Championship Division Reading. 

By my count there were nine upsets.  Some were more upsetting than others.  We can rank teams by their position in their league (i.e. EPL teams are 1-20, Championship 21-44, League One 45-68, League Two 69-92, National League 93-115, National League - North 116 and higher).  For example, Cambridge is currently in 16th in League One so 20 top tier teams plus 24 second tier teams plus 16 equals 60.  We can then order the upsets by the degree of their upsettingness:

79 - Kidderminster (120) over Reading (41)

52 - Hartlepool (84) over Blackpool (32)

41 - Cambridge (60) over Newcastle (19)

35 - Boreham Wood (98) over AFC Wimbledon (63)

26 - Wigan (48) over Blackburn (22) 

25 - Nottingham Forest (29) over Arsenal (4)

12 - Plymouth (50) over Birmingham (38)

  8 - Huddersfield (26) over Burnley (18)

  6 - Cardiff (40) over Preston (34)

Take Huddersfield over Burnley.  The Clarets are looking at relegation from the top tier while Huddersfield are in the hunt for promotion from the second division so it's not a stunning upset.  Cardiff are just six spots behind Preston in the Championship Division so that barely qualifies as a surprise.  On the other hand, there are three entire divisions between Kidderminster and Reading (League One, League Two, and National League).  Newcastle's loss kinda stands out here too. 

How Did I Get There?

Yours truly in London cheering Morecambe as they
attempted to upset Tottenham

BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K noted that somehow I (well, a much younger version of me) made it to London for Spurs versus Morecambe.  I have no recollection of how I got there, or even being there.  Which is a shame because for the Morecambe fans, this was a pretty good day.  The League One Shrimps (local seafood specialty) carried a 1-0 lead late into the match.  Around 70 minutes, Spurs manager Conte said enough of this sh stuff and put in Kane, Moura and Skipp.  Within minutes they had the equalizer and added two more at 85 and 88 minutes.  So the Shrimps fans left London with a loss but probably great memories of the time they lea Tottenham until very late in an FA Cup match.  

Forest Green Sightings

The Third Round of the FA Cup continues to be fun for me as it a chance to see some of my Football Manager players in action.  This weekend, there were four current members of my Forest Green roster playing for various lower tier sides. 

- Adam May - Center mid - Cambridge
- Perry Ng - Right back - Cardiff

- Leif Davis - Left back - Bournemouth

- Liam Kitching - Left back - Barnsley

Adam May bedeviled Newcastle all day and
helped set up the winning goal

I couldn't find a reliable source for player ratings but I note that all four were on the winning side.  I saw Ng (pronounced EN-ja) and he looked competent if not spectacular.  Obviously I saw May in action against Newcastle; he created problems for Newcastle in the No. 10 role and had an integral part in the goal. Ya done good guys.

Desperately Seeking Striker

Saturday's performance against Cambridge aptly demonstrated that the Magpies won't survive the two months without Callum Wilson.  Credit to the Newcastle management for quick action.  They triggered the release clause for Burnley striker Chris Wood by making a bid somewhere in the £20-25 million range.  By triggering the clause, Burnley have no say in the matter and it was merely a question of whether Newcastle and Wood can work out the terms.  Which they did.

Viewed from a financial perspective, this is a terrible deal, reeking of desperation.  The website TransferMkt has Wood's current value at £6.6 million so Newcastle are paying maybe three times his market value.  But circumstances don't allow Newcastle to wait even a week to fill the vacancy and the sure way to deal with that is to trigger a release clause rather than getting into a back-and-forth negotiation over the transfer fee.  Let's focus on what Wood offers - a serviceable target striker with a history of double figure goals in the Premier League.  Desperate times call for stupid financial decisions.

As if to affirm the move for Wood, progress on a center back and midfielder continues to languish.  Botman is out.  Newcastle have submitted another bid for Sevilla's Diego Carlos; it's still not clear to me that Carlos is even interested in leaving Sevilla, let along go to Newcastle.  [As I was putting this issue to bed, I saw that Man United have offered Donnie van de Beek on loan and Carlos is now saying he'd be interested in a move to Newcastle.  Trippier, Wood, van de Beek and Carlos would be a satisfactory January window.]

Meanwhile Dennis is basking in the news from Birmingham.  Aston Villa have signed Philippe Coutinho on loan with an option to buy and look to have wrapped up a deal for former Magpie transfer target Lucas Digne.  So they added a creative attacker and depth to the back line.  That's a good January right there.  

New Product Line for Hallmark UK

After numerous texts to me throughout this season offering condolences on how bad my Newcastle are, Dennis has come up with an idea that should be a money maker - football sympathy cards.  Here's his first demo (right).   Set up menus to choose themes, team images, scores and messages; sounds like a winner.  Remember your old man when you get rich off this.

COVID and AFCON

We noted the pre-Christmas spike in positive COVID tests.  As the graph below illustrates, it got worse.

Numbers for last week were not available at press time.  Compounding the problem of fielding a team in January is players away on international duty for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON), which runs from January 9 to February 6. A full list of players called up can be had here. Note that some teams are affected more than others.  For example Liverpool lose Salah, Mane and Keita; Leicester lose Amartey, EatANacho, Mendy and Ndidi; Crystal Palace lose Ayew, Kouyate and Zaha.  Newcastle on the other hand, lose none.  The last match day of group play is Thursday 1/20; depending on whether they played, travel arrangements and COVID protocols, some players could be back for the games of 1/22 but that seems like a long shot.

The Revolution Better Start Now (apologies to Steve Earle)

This could be me watching Newcastle - Watford

Newcastle's first league match of 2022 couldn't be more critical - home to relegation rival Watford Saturday at 10 am (on USA, recognizing that relegation battle soccer can be compelling).  This is the epitome of a six-pointer; win and the Magpies jump ahead of Watford, lose and they fall five points behind the Hornets who have a game in hand.  So freakin' scary I might not be able to watch (see left).

Lots of good stuff this weekend.  Early start to action with a Friday 3 pm match featuring Brighton - Crystal Palace; the Seagulls will be solid favorites at home but this could be a decent match anyway and besides how good does it have to be to get you to watch on a Friday afternoon.  

Big doings early Saturday as first plays second when Man City host Chelsea at 7:30 on Peacock.  City have won eleven straight in the EPL and bring a 10 point lead over the Blues to the match.  Doesn't sound hopeful.  Four choices at 10 but as mentioned above, we'll be cowering behind the covers watch ing Newcastle.  A better choice for neutrals might be Wolves - Southampton.  Your other options are Burnley - Leicester and Norwich - Everton.   After Wednesday's 2-0 loss at West Ham, Norwich have now gone six straight league matches without scoring a goal.  With allowances for stoppage time (plus the last 11 minutes of the Newcastle match), this puts the Canaries well over 9 hours since their last goal.  For perspective, you could watch all three Lord of the Ring movies (theatrical versions, not extended) in that time.

The feature NBC match at 12:30 is of interest to us as Aston Villa host Man United.  Villa are fresh off an annoying 0-1 loss to those same Red Devils in Monday's FA Cup match; they gave up an early goal, then pretty much looked they had a chance to win the rest of the way.  Add Coutinho and maybe Digne and this could be fun.

Sunday includes a North London derby with Tottenham hosting Arsenal at 11:30 on Peacock  Recall the last one didn't go too well for Spurs as they were down 0-3 in about 30 minutes.  Conte has them playing better so we're hoping for a more competitive contest.  Two games at 9 am to warm you up for the derby - Liverpool - Brentford (USA) and West Ham - Leeds (Peacock)

Don't forget the mid-week COVID make up games.  Tuesday has relegation rivals Burnley - Watford (2:30) and Brighton - Chelsea (3 pm); we've been telling you for weeks about how Brighton has fewer losses than all but the top three so here's their chance on the big stage.  Wednesday features Leicester - Tottenham (2:30 on USA) and Brentford - Man United ( 3 pm on Peacock).

And Thursday's not open either.  Arsenal will host Liverpool in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi.  They'll go into that 0-0, which is a surprise, especially given that Arsenal played about 66 minutes of the first leg down a man after, you guessed it, Granit Xhaka got sent off.  We might give Xhaka a break in that at least this time it wasn't for serious foul play but for DOGSO (though the challenge was probably reckless enough that he would have gotten a yellow.)  Despite the advantage, Liverpool managed just one shot on target.  Might they be missing Salah and Mane'?  For the record, Chelsea managed a second shut out over Spurs in the second leg of the other semi to advance to the final 3-0 on aggregate.

Football every day of the week is fun.