Friday, September 24, 2021

One or Two Steps Up, No Steps Back

 Mostly better results for the BFS sides this weekend plus some thoroughly entertaining stuff.


If It Quacks Like a Duck

Classic early deficit for Newcastle
On paper, the Newcastle - Leeds match looked to be a draw, the match I saw on TV looked like a draw and the stats suggest it was a draw.  This one had a very unsatisfying start, as Raphinha sent a long cross into the box that ended up untouched in the goal.  Darlow was held in place by the run of a Leeds attacker and Lascelles didn't play the ball either.  The cross was superb so Leeds probably deserved a goal out of it but still frustrating to watch.  Fortunately Newcastle did have a viable counterattack going (actually whole first half was frantic back-and-forth attacking) and Saint-Maximin did level things with a fine goal of his own just before half.  We make it this week's runner up YouTubeableMoment.  The second half wasn't as action-packed; there were some chances for both, but neither side could break the deadlock.  On balance, while it was pins and needles for Magpie fans, this one was entertaining for the neutral.

A Noble Gesture?

Speaking of entertaining, the best viewing of the weekend was West Ham versus Man United with something for everyone.  Ronaldo fans got treated to another goal.  Ronaldo haters got treated to seeing him denied at least three penalty shouts, though in truth one of them might actually have been a penalty.  West Ham did have an early lead that was erased with the Ronaldo goal.  Great stuff to watch even though the match entered the late stages still at 1-1. Last week's goat for Man United (but last year's hero for West Ham) broke that deadlock with a sweet strike in the 89th minute.

That looked like the game winner until Luke Shaw was whistled for handling in the box.  Providing fodder for pundits and armchair managers everywhere, David Moyes chose to bring on Mark Noble to take the PK.  No doubt that Noble is good at this.  Stepping onto the pitch, his conversion rate in EPL matches was 90.5% (38 for 42).  Now he is down to 88.4%, as his attempt was mediocre at best and was easily saved by deGea, who had been 0 for his last 21 in stopping PKs dating back to October 2014.  I suppose if I searched harder I might find some support for Moyes here but the criticism looks to be universal - from the BFS text stream to the newspapers to the pundit shows.  You can see the play from the WHU fans' perspective in this video we will label the agony of de feet.


Who Are Those Guys?

Another fun match was Aston Villa - Everton.  This one was close, until it wasn't.  For 60+ minutes the sides traded chances.  Then, in a matter of 10 minutes, it was over.  First there was a great run and even better strike from Matty Cash.  Then an own goal from Luca Digne.  The final nail was this goal from summer acquisition Leon Bailey.  And suddenly, as Arlo White put it, Villa had taken Everton to the cleaners.  Nice to know some expressions work on both sides of the pond.


Another Gentleman's C?

For the second week in a row, Arsenal barely passed what should have been a relatively easy test, shading Burnley 1-0.  Sure, it's hard to play at Turf Moor.  Still, that looked like a draw to me.  The stats suggest a draw; actually xG says Burnley 1.55-1.20.  Claret fans will feel hard done that a foul in the box by Ramsdale (wait, he started over Leno? what's up with that?) was questioned by the VAR and overturned by Anthony Taylor after he went to the monitor - and watched the whole play this time!  For me, this was correct given the EPL's directive that about fouls in the box.

Consecutive 1-0 wins over 19th and 20th in the table is no way to go through life in the EPL - unless you're Newcastle.  This must be unacceptable for Gunners fans.  Big test on Sunday as they face Spurs.

Speaking of Spurs, they did no better with 11 on the field for the whole match, falling to Chelsea 0-3.  First half was actually pretty even, ending at 0-0.  Things, uh, unraveled in the second half.  I'm tempted to say the final score is unfair to Spurs, given that the second goal was a wicked deflection off Dier and the third goal came in stoppage time.  On the other hand, xG says this was Chelsea 2.45-.9, not exactly close.  

In Other Action

I did see Brentford take Wolves 2-0; the Bees are certainly defying the early season predictions of a tough year in the top tier.  Long way to go though.  

Liverpool took their sweet time dispatching Crystal Palace but the 3-0 final looks about right so the Red Devils kept pace with Chelsea and Man United.  Not so for Man City, who apparently huffed and puffed but could not break through against Southampton.  Part of the explanation might be that despite 16 shots, they managed just one on target.  The Saints now have four consecutive draws including ties with Man United, Man City, West Ham and Newcastle.  One of these is not like the others.

Man City's struggle allowed for the winner of the Brighton - Leicester match to slip into 4th place.  That would be Brighton.  The Seagulls have four wins against just one loss.  Most of the wins are not exactly top of the table types but you can only beat who you play.  Must be nice to put up 12 points quickly to keep the early relegation noise to a minimum.  Rounding out the week, Watford kept Norwich pointless with a 3-1 win on the road.

After five matches, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man United have no losses while Southampton, Newcastle, Leeds, Burnley and Norwich still have yet to win.


Which Cazoo are you?
Who Are Cazoo?

Did you notice that Aston Villa - Everton match was the Claret Cazoos versus the White Cazoos?  So what exactly is a Cazoo?  It is a British on-line car retailer based in London apparently making enough money to sponsor two EPL teams and host of lower division sides as well.  More details here.


The U Move in the Right Direction

A mixture of satisfaction and relief at Subaru Park as the Union got a key 3-1 win over Orlando City.  With the early run of play, the Kai Wagner's late first half goal seemed like a just reward.  As I was commenting to Jeff K about the Union going flat in the second half, Ruan's header off a great cross leveled things at 57 minutes.  Maybe the most important moment of the season was the Union response to that goal.  They got right back on attack and shuhBILLkoh put them back on top after some lovely work along the byline by Monteiro and Bedoya.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  They added a third with a PK after Santos was brought down in the box.

They say speed kills - Santos in full stride
Yes, it was a shorthanded Orlando, playing without Nani and Andres Perea.  The Union have played without key players at times.  Yes, shuhBILLkoh may have indeed fouled Schlegel prior to the Union's first goal.  Though there was confusion, as the AR did raise his flag; the official explanation looks to be that referee Alan Kelly played advantage but Orlando lost the ball (helpful explanation here).  Okay, maybe shuhBILLkoh could have been red carded there but VAR is supposed to look at that.  We heard that the Disciplinary Board might have a second look at it but as of this writing, no word.

Many fine performances here.  Bedoya's work on the left wing in the first half was excellent.  Flach ran his usual 20 miles or so.  Santos was a big help as a sub when speed was needed. Also, very happy to see that Curtin doesn't wait anymore to sub out Bedoya before he runs out of gas.  

Still a ton of work to do but this would be one of those signature wins that define a season.  


If You Still Carabao It Cup

Round of 32 matches were this week.  If you care, results and fixtures are available here.


No World Cup for You?

Selection for the 2026 World Cup venues was a topic this week.  As noted in this article, the committee was in Philly checking out the Linc.  The odds seem stack against the city, an unlucky combination of geography and politics.  Still, I will find it particularly galling if Gillette Stadium is selected over Lincoln Financial Field.  Inconvenient location outside of Boston and they'll have to lay natural grass on top of the artificial turf.  But as Tannenwald notes, FIFA will do whatever it wants.


Momentum?

Important weekend as Newcastle and the Union have chances to build on last week's results.  Plus several big EPL match ups.  

But first a rant.  Are you effing kidding me?  The powers-that-be have scheduled both Chelsea - Man City and Man United - Aston Villa for 7:30 Saturday morning.  And the latter is only available on Peacock.  What are they thinking?  Obviously Chelsea - MCI is the match of the weekend (sorry North London derby fans).  Chelsea have been hot, City less so but this figures to be a good one.  The Man United - Villa match doesn't look as tight on paper but I think it could still be a good watch; remember that the Villans gave Chelsea a hard time a few weeks ago.  Might have something to do with the Ryder Cup, although that only affects NBC, not NBCSN so not clear what's up.  No consideration for the fans here.  I kid, mostly, but this does seem to be poor choice, especially when you look at the 10 am fixtures.

One of those 10 am matches is Watford - Newcastle (on Peacock) that surely can be of interest only to the die-hard fans of those two sides.  Of course, it is a big one for both teams, as both are likely to find themselves in, say, the bottom five or six come later this season.  At 538 they have Watford as a slight favorite (38% to 35% with 26% chance of a draw).  Ideally, we'd like a win here but on the road I will say now I'd be happy with a draw.

The 10 am match that gets TV is the less-than-stellar Leicester hosting winless Burnley.  The other 10 am matches on Peacock are Everton - Norwich (anything less than Toffee win here will be unacceptable) and Leeds - West Ham (probably would be fun to watch if none of the others catch your fancy).

Feature match at 12:30 on NBCSN (not NBC because of Ryder Cup) is Brentford - Liverpool.  The Bees fans are probably thrilled with their start and may feel there's nothing to lose here.  But they will be up against it.

Big London derby on Sunday at 11:30 between Arsenal and Tottenham.  Neither have been impressive lately but there has to be a result here.  I wonder if this is the last test for Arteta; a draw or better and he sticks around but a loss would be the end of the road?  You can warm up for the derby with what looks like a competitive match with Southampton hosting Wolves at 9 am on NBCSN.  Only one point separates them but my sense is that Southampton have had some good luck while the Wolves have not.

On Monday, fourth place Brighton travels to Selhurst Park to face Crystal Palace at 3 pm on NBCSN.  The Eagles can be tough there so the Seagles Seagulls will have work to do; I smell an entertaining draw.

The Union take on Atlanta at friendly Subaru Park looking to build on the win over Orlando.  This one is at 3:30 but coverage is limited to Univision and TUDN; I wonder if this another English broadcast on the Spanish station.  If it's not in English, a good chance to learn some more Spanish.

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