On the Road Again

(apologies to Willie Nelson)

The good news is that despite travel to the Delaware and Maryland coasts, I was able to catch all the key games.  The bad news is that they included some pretty crappy results.  We'll go in sort of reverse chronological order, with my memory getting worse the farther back we go.

We Knew Him When

The USMNT was about 45 minutes away from a disastrous opening to the Octogan, CONCACAF's final step in World Cup qualifying.  With a sort of acceptable 0-0 draw on the road to El Salvador and an unacceptable home 1-1 draw to Canada already in the books, the US were down 0-1 on the road in Honduras.  Worse than the score itself was the fact that it was totally merited, with the US looking like a team only in that they were wearing the same uniforms.

Berhalter changed the formation back to a more familiar 4-3-3 and put in Antonee Robinson, Lletget and former Union star Brenden Aaronson.  That worked out swimmingly.  Robinson scored in the 48th minute, Aaronson in the 86th minute and Lletget in the 93rd minute.  Throw in a 75th minute tally from Pepi and there's your 4-1 final.  Instead of finishing the first round of matches in 5th or 6th, the goals were enough to move the US past Panama into third.   

Brenden Aaronson (c): We'd buy him a beer but he's not old enough
 Photo:Brad Smith/ISI Photos/Getty Images

After a lackluster performance against El Salvador, Brendon Aaronson has stepped up to be a key part of the team.  He got the only US goal in the draw with Canada; he actually started the play with a nifty steal of the ball, then continued his run into the box and put away the cross from Antonee Robinson.  Against Honduras, he was a key factor in changing the tone of the match, he was involved in the second goal and scored the third one on a nice break with Pepi (who had a great game too!).   

Great that Berhalter was able to turn things around with halftime adjustments.  But this first round of qualifiers should be a warning that nothing is easy these days in WC qualifying.  Mexico is finding this out too; sure, they have two wins and a draw but needed a late goal to beat Jamaica, only managed a PK in a 1-0 win over Costa Rica and drew 1-1 Panama with another latish goal.  Maybe the US needed a reminder that this ain't the Gold Cup.

The State of the Union

In two words - not good.  Since we last spoke, there were losses to DC United (3-1) and New England (0-1).  Against DC, we had an early lead but saw that disappear by early in the second half.  In contrast to earlier matches when the Union were down a goal, we can't say that Curtin threw caution to the wind; his substitutions looked like for like to me.  Didn't help as they conceded a third goal in stoppage time.  I don't see anything in the statistics to say this was not an accurate result.

The New England game was more frustrating.  I don't remember the Union being seriously outplayed but they were down 0-1 after a 33rd minute goal from Polster.  Prospects were looking up though when Traustason got a second yellow at 59 minutes.  The Union were on the front foot from there on out but could not find a goal.  All the stats says this was at worst a draw suggesting that finishing is becoming a problem again. 

After this rough patch, the Union sit 5th, though they are 6th in points per game.  The Union's CONCACAF Champions League semi-final second leg against Club America means almost every team plays two games before the Union's next MLS match on Sunday 9/19.   By kick-off of that game, they could conceivably be sitting as low as 9th in the table.  Nothing like a little pressure for the home matches versus Orlando City and Atlanta.

The Luck (or Unluck) of the Draw

Going back to EPL action two weekends ago...wait, you can't expect me to remember much about them.  I do recall a lot of draws, some deserved, others not so much.  

For example, Newcastle were wretched in the first half at home versus Southampton and should have been down at least 0-2; they were lucky to escape 0-0.  They were better in the second half and even had a 1-0 lead for a time.  They were heading towards a 1-1 draw when out of nothing, ASM got what could have been the game winner in the 91st minute.  Ah, but this is Newcastle, and the Magpies coughed up a PK in the last minute of stoppage time and had to settle for a 2-2 final.  Really hard to say they were unlucky given how bad they were at times and the stats back up that contention.  In fact, though they gave up the tying goal in stoppage time, they were lucky to escape with a draw.

Aston Villa could do no better than 1-1 versus newbies (new Bees?) Brentford.  Didn't see the match but stats suggest this was a fair result, even mildly flattering to Aston Villa.  Other draws included West Ham - Crystal Palace (2-2), Burnley - Leeds (1-1) and Liverpool - Chelsea (1-1 - more on that one below).

We also have the curious case of dopplegangers Tottenham and Wolves.  Through three matches, Spurs are unbeaten and untied, winning each match 1-0.  And yet, the stats say they may have been a bit lucky.  The recent 1-0 win over Watford looks okay if not overwhelming.  But the wins over Wolves and Man City look like they were stolen, with Spurs outplayed.  On the other side, Wolves have lost all three of their matches 0-1.  And yet the stats say they could be undefeated.  Having seen most of each teams games, some of this does come down to luck.  But maybe, it's also a function of clinical finishing.  Just putting that out there.

Dead Man Coaching?

Arsenal's home match with Man City was always going to be a tester.  When Granit Xhaka got sent off for a rash challenge with City already up 2-0, it turned into a turkey shoot.  The final was 5-0.  The Gunners have lost all three matches so far, failed to score a goal, and sit last in the table with a -9 goal differential.  Okay, losses to Chelsea and Man City might have been anticipated.  And their next two matches are Norwich and Burnley.  Failure to win either of those might be enough to get Arteta sacked.  Even if they get two wins, after that comes Spurs at home.  Maybe that's the decision point.

Handling (Again)

A big play in the Liverpool - Chelsea match was the sending off of Reece James for DOGSO just before halftime.  Mo Salah converted the PK to level things at 1-1 but Chelsea would do a superb job of defending the entire second half despite being a man down.

The play itself generated some controversy.  You can see a good summary of the incident here.  Anthony Taylor made no call at the time but got word from his VAR that there might have been handling.  After a little back and forth on the ear piece, Taylor went to the monitor, looked only at a still photograph of the play and decided it was DOGSO.

What I saw was the ball coming off James' leg and striking his arm, which I argue was in a natural position at the time (see the still photograph).  For me, he has not "handled" the ball at that point.  However, after the contact, James then moves his arm forward, propelling the ball away from the goal. That is handling for me and I would have awarded the PK.  Maybe I am splitting hairs but the denying the goal part of this play was not handling; when he propelled the ball away it wasn't going in because it had already hit James.  I am in a distinct minority on this one.  BFS Keeper Consultant Graham R says I'm being too nuanced.  He saw an instinctual movement to keep the ball out of the goal and that is was DOGSO.  The unbiased part of the internet (i.e. not Chelsea fans) generally agrees with Graham's interpretation, even after discounting the pundits who said that handling in the box is an automatic red card (it's not).

A picture is worth 1,000 words but the whole video
 would have been worth a lot more

I am still left with the question of how does Taylor decide it's a red card based only on the still photo. 
Hell, he doesn't even get all the way to the monitor.  Without the video, he misses an exculpatory aspect for the defendant (the ball coming off his thigh) but also Exhibit B for the prosecution (the forward movement of the arm).   I found a little more support for that view - how does Taylor not take the time to more carefully review the play given the impact of his decision.  Also, is he saying that James' arm is in an unnatural position when the ball hits it?  His arm is barely away from his body.  

The call certainly changed the tenor of the game.  Maybe Chelsea were only going to get a point out of trip to Anfield anyway, but it was a different second half than we were looking forward to.

Worst Dive of the Week

Okay, it wasn't on the pitch but it's worth seeing again.  Story and video are here.  He was charged with "false swearing with the intent to cause an emergency response."  In other words, he was "booked" for simulation.

Euro WC Qualifiers

Yeah, I know there were a bunch.  Even saw a couple.  Don't feel prepared enough to comment.

Did You Know?

For more than 40 years, 

no game of any kind, be that Premier League, Championship, or even Bundesliga or LaLiga, can be broadcast live on British television on a Saturday between 2.45 p.m. and 5.15 p.m..

Explanation is here.  Basically, the thinking is that it will discourage attendance.

Schedule

A new wrinkle this weekend - a return to refereeing.  Covid-19 wiped out last year's club schedule but we're set to try again.  I like being out there even though it does cramp the viewing a little.

Competitive fixtures are in short supply so the marquee match of the week might be Man United hosting Newcastle (Saturday 10 am USA), which will feature the return of Christian Ronaldo to the Red Devils.  BFS Diving Expert and Co-founder Dennis F can barely contain himself, thinking about the uptick in possible yellow cards for simulation.  Whether this was a good move for the player or the club is the subject of much debate; you can get some of the flavor of that debate here.  All I know is that this fixture still looks like a mountain for the Magpies to climb; at 538 they give Newcastle an 11% chance of winning and 17% chance of getting a draw.

Aston Villa will have their hands full taking on Chelsea at Stamford Bridge; their odds are not much better than Newcastle's.  This is the feature match at 12:30 on NBC.

Most competitive match of the weekend looks to be Brentford - Brighton.  Make that, still undefeated Brentford (win and two draws).  This one could be tight - Saturday at 10 am on Peacock.  Watford -Wolves (Saturday 10 am on Peacock) might be close, with Wolves a slight favorite to get their first points.  Surprising that 538 has Southampton - West Ham as reasonably close; probably because the Hammers are on the road.

The only top table type of clash this week might not be all that close, with Leicester hosting Man City (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  The Foxes haven't been all that bad but City seems to be figuring things out.  League leading Spurs (TOT stands for Top of the Table) have a London derby with Crystal Palace at the TV home of Ted Lasso's AFC Richmond (aka Selhurst Park).   No reason to think Spurs don't come away with all three points here.  Liverpool will look to keep pace as they travel to Leeds (Sunday 11:30 on NBCSN).  And, unbeaten Everton also will try to stay that way, hosting Burnley (Monday at 3 pm on NBCSN).

Last place Arsenal host 19th place Norwich as the Gunners try to get on the board; that's at 10 Saturday on Peacock.  Solid favorites here so anything less than a win puts Arteta at greater risk.  

As I mentioned, no MLS action for the Union this week.  However, they do have the second leg of the CONCACAF Champions League semi-final at 9 pm on Wednesday night at Subaru Park.  Don't know yet if I'll be at this match.  Recall that the Union are down 0-2 after the first leg.  Keeping a clean sheet  will be critical since the U didn't get a goal in the first leg in Mexico.  That is, a 2-0 win on Wednesday would force extra time but a 3-1 win would send Club America to the final on the away goal rule.  Given their recent form, this feels like a long shot.