Rinse and Repeat

The weekend seemed almost a carbon copy of last.  Frustrating draw for Newcastle, Union eek out a win, Aston Villa roll.  The problem is that cycle only works for two of the three teams.  

Luckiest Unlucky Draw Ever

Or maybe the unluckiest lucky draw.  Whichever, it was frustrating and nerve-wracking.  The Magpies were out early against Watford and Sean Longstaff's goal at 23 minutes was no less than they deserved, even if it really should have been stopped by Watford keeper Ben Foster.  There would be more first-half opportunities, including a wide open chance for Longstaff, that were not converted, leading to the inevitable question as to whether Newcastle would later rue these missed chances.  

If Murphy shots low,
does Foster have a chance?

Of course the answer was yes.  Sarr leveled things at 72 minutes.  Wait, it gets worse.  Josh King looked to have given Watford the game winner at 87 minutes.  Fortunately, VAR intervened to point out, correctly, that King was offside.  Breathing again I reminded myself that going in I fully accepted that a draw would be a good result.  Except, in stoppage time, there goes Jacob Murphy in on goal all alone and three points look possible.  But for some reason Murphy lifts it instead of keeping it on the deck and this time Foster makes the save.  The final is 1-1.

Championship division quality finishing on display here, highlighting how much Newcastle miss Callum Wilson.  Stats are mostly even, except for expected goals.  Certainly feels like a lost two points.  So they are starting to play better even though it's not translating into wins.  They do climb out of the bottom three.    Gonna be another long slog.

Not In My Hause

It wasn't in their house but Aston Villa went to Old Trafford and gave Man United fits.  Both had some legitimate chances but the match went to the 88th minute level at 0-0.  Just when we started thinking that this would be a great draw for Villa, Kortney Hause drilled a header past deGea; we make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; though not a big fan in general, we do like the Andres Cantor call here.  Do we dare think about taking all three points?

We shouldn't, as goalscorer Hause gets whistled for handling in the box in the 92nd minute.  On the soft side for us, even looks like it might have come off his chest first.  However, his arm was well-extended from his body.  Bad thing to do given that Mike Dean never shies away from a chance to make a dramatic call.  I think I saw Ronaldo a bit upset that Fernandes stepped up to take the kick.  Might have been the better choice given that Fernandes skied the shot over the cross bar.  As Ted Lasso says, "ya gotta git it in to get three points" or in this case one point.  

Maybe a draw was the right score.  Sure, United outshot them 28-7, possession was 60/40 and xG favored the Red Devils.  However, the xG advantage is mostly due to the PK and shots on target were only 4-3 favor United.   So Villa clearly played well here and any points were deserved.  

Jesus Saves Scores

I didn't watch Chelsea v Man City - arguably the marquee match of the weekend - because I saw the score while watching Man United - Aston Villa.  Everything I read suggests that the 1-0 final in favor of City actually flatters Chelsea.  City had the possession advantage 60/40, shots were 15-5 and shots on target were 4-0; hard to score without a shot on target.  

The Wrong Kind of  Hat Trick

Jamie Vardy got three goals in Leicester's 2-2 draw with Burnley.  Astute mathematicians may spot a problem there and you would be correct.  The first of the three was an own goal, a misdirected attempt at a clearing header that beat Schmeichel.  Fortunately for Vardy, the next two went in the correct net, both times bringing the Foxes back from one goal deficits.  Even that almost wasn't enough, as Burnley appeared to have snatched a game winner in stoppage time only to see it called back by the VAR, correctly, for offside.  That this is not your father's Leicester is plainly on display now as they struggle to get a draw with Burnley and sit 13th in the table with a goal differential of -3.  Plenty of time to turn things around but there are many sides vying for those spots from 5th to 8th.

Derby in Name Only

If Arsenal v Tottenham was a big test for both sides, our read is that somebody gave the Gunners the answers before the test and/or Tottenham did not bother to study.  The advantage doesn't really show in the final statistics (except of course the 3-1 final in favor of Arsenal) but anybody who watched could tell you this one was over in about 30 minutes.  Most distressing from Spurs' perspective was that aside from being 0-3 down by the 34th minute, they looked lifeless.  The second half was somewhat more even but how much of that was Arsenal playing safe with the big lead?  

Other Things

Raul back on the scoresheet where he belongs

With Chelsea and Man United, going down, only Liverpool remain unbeaten. Of course, the Reds didn't win either but at least they got a 3-3 draw with Brentford, who continue to punch above their weight.  Conversely,  none of the unvictorious five were able to break through.  As we noted, Newcastle and Burnley got draws.  Southampton (0-1 to Wolves on the first goal for Raul Jiminez since his return from a fractured skull), Norwich (0-2 to Everton) and Leeds (1-2 to West Ham) got nothing.  These five, not surprisingly, inhabit the bottom five spots in the table.

After the results of Saturday-Sunday, Brighton entered Monday's clash with Crystal Palace with a chance to go top of the table.  Mostly what happened was they had a chance to drop all three points at Selhurst Park.  Only a cheeky chip from Maupay in the 95th minute allowed them to escape with a 1-1 draw.  Still, they sit 6th in the table with four wins, a draw and a loss; pretty good for a side that usually finds itself in the relegation mess.

I Lost to Sheriff (apologies to Bob Marley)

The Thill is not gone: Sebastien Thill gets
 the game winner in Madrid

Our favorite Moldavan club was at it again, but this one was really audacious, as they took the measure of Real Madrid, at the Bernabeu no less.  Didn't see it while wasting my time watching PSG handle Man City.  The Wasps actually led for much of the match, until RM got a soft PK at 65 minutes.  Not to worry as Sheriff did not lay down and there was Sebastien Thill getting a game winner in the 89th minute.  The stats are ridiculous in favor of RM: possession was 76-24, shots 31-4, shots on target 11-3, corners 13-0 and xG 3.35 - .4.  Must have been the intangibles.  In any case, Sheriff are top of Group C through two matches.  Probably shouldn't "book" them just yet for the knockout stage but they do have a five point lead over third place Inter Milan. Maybe should clear your schedule for that matchup (10/19 at 3 pm).

Barely Enough

The Union slipped past Atlanta 1-0 at home and settled for a 1-1 road draw with the Harrison Pink Cows New York Red Bulls. Despite these results, their playoff berth is hardly secure.

Against Atlanta, the U took the wrong page out of the Newcastle playbook, missing way too many good opportunities; maybe Guzan deserves a little credit there.  Anyway, they had the upper hand all day but had nothing to show for it.  Finally, Jose Martinez did some great work on the endline to get a pass to shuhBILLkoh in the box and he slipped the shot past heretofore unbeatable Guzan.  You can see Martinez handiwork and shuhBILLkoh's shot here.  Atlanta really didn't threaten much all day so it didn't feel all that shaky from there on in.  Yeah, it helped that again that their opponent was missing a key player (Josef Martinez) but everybody has to deal with that.  The win looked right on paper and on the field.  

Santos goal was enough to get a draw
Photo:Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Move to Wednesday night in Harrison NJ.  Santos got them an early lead with a volley off his thigh from a Glesnes flick on.  Unfortunately, Hernandez got it back in the 37th minute.  The Union did have a defensive focus for this one and it showed; neither team really offered much of a threat in the second half.  This one looked like a draw on paper and on the field.

Seven points from three games sounds great, right?  Except they still sit 5th in the table, a mere two points ahead of 8th place Montreal.  Lose at home to Columbus this weekend and the Crew will only be two points back as well.  With eight games remaining, almost everything in the Eastern Conference, except first place, is up for grabs.  Imagine where they'd be without those seven points.  

Cramming Them In

EPL will feature 10 games over Saturday and Sunday so you'll probably have to pick your spots.

The big one is first place Liverpool vs second place Man City on Sunday at 11:30 (NBCSN).  Both teams are in great form (excluding perhaps City's 0-2 midweek Champions League loss to PSG) so this one should be close.

We will definitely tune in for Saturday morning's 7:30 contest (NBCSN) between Man United and Everton.  Both are 4-1-1.  I guess there's a chance United will dominate but I have some hope that Benitez will come up with a good game plan.

With Newcastle at Molyneaux to face Wolves (Saturday 10 am Peacock), I'm not thinking this is the weekend that the Magpies get their first win.  A draw would be a fabulous result here.  Aston Villa have a tall task too, taking on Spurs in London (Sunday 9 am Peacock); I rate their chances only slightly better than Newcastle's.  Still, I would have put this one on NBCSN over the Crystal Palace - Leicester contest at the same time but that's just me.  Actually, it would be my third choice for Sunday at 9, as West Ham v Brentford might be more interesting too.  I guess if you're looking for a competitive match, maybe Palace - Leicester is a good choice, but only because the Foxes have underperformed this year.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday is Brighton vs Arsenal.  Strange choice for feature match but what's really weird is that 583 has this one at 37/35 in favor of the Seagulls with a 28% chance of draw.  Sure it's at Amex Stadium but really?    Leeds - Watford on NBCSN Saturday at 10 doesn't really put a tingle down my spine.  Somebody's going to get points at Turf Moor when Burnley host Norwich.  Odds are that the Clarets get their first win and Norwich remain pointless.  Chelsea - Southampton also square off at 10; you can see that one on USA.

I'll be at Subaru Park Sunday afternoon for another critical Union contest as they take on the Columbus Crew.  A win is important, not losing is essential.   Looks like 538 has the U has serious favorites. 

The Octagon Returns

We're heading into another international break and the USMNT will do that three games in seven days thing again.  First up is Jamaica in Austin on Thursday at 7:45.  Sunday they travel to face Panama at 6 pm.  They close out the break hosting Costa Rica on Wednesday (10/13) in Columbus.  In case you forgot, the standings through the first three matches are here.  A good look at some of the relevant topics for these matches is here.  This section of the US fan base agrees that seven points is the right number out of these three fixtures.  Gotta beat Jamaica at home.  Draw with Panama wouldn't be terrible.  Should beat Costa Rica at home.  I suppose five points wouldn't be disaster but dropped points here and there just reduce the room for error near the end.

The break also means European WC qualifiers so if I don't see you next week, don't forget those matches run from Friday 10/8 to Tuesday 10/12. 

Move over 6911, there's a new venue in town

We leave you with a picture of Michael B's new man cave, possibly the besting soccer viewing venue in Northwest Philly.  If only Michael still followed the EPL.