Toothless and Lifeless

Without saves like this from Dubravka all year, Newcastle
would be up the Tyne without a paddle

The Chronicle had fun finding all the various "less" adjectives the national media employed to describe the Newcastle performance versus Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.  These two were apt as any.  That the final was just 0-1 is a tribute to the netminding of Martin Dubravka.  But if you can't score, the best goalkeeping in the world will not be enough.  The last time the Magpies found the net in an EPL match was way back on January 21, when LeJeune helped them steal a point with a 95th minute tally.  Since then it's been bagels versus Norwich (a defensive juggernaut that has ceded 51 goals so far this season), Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  One feels they could have played all Saturday without threatening the net.

Bruce went with the same lineup that lost at Arsenal last Sunday.  His confidence was not rewarded.  The pairing of Longstaff/Bentaleb hasn't been inspiring so far.  Lazaro had productive moments but a straight red late in the match means we won't be seeing him for three matches.  Is it possible that Bruce has undervalued the work of Hayden and Ritchie?  We definitely need to see something different this Saturday vs Burnley.

Things were not much better for Aston Villa at St. Mary's against Southampton.  The "less" adjectives would seem to apply there as well.  Michael and Simon were just as crestfallen with Tottenham's 1-2 loss at Chelsea.  The final is actually flattering to Spurs as their only goal came very late.  Without Kane and Son, they are struggling.  The only result that went the "right" way was Burnley's 3-0 thumping of Bournemouth.  Even there, we needed VAR to overturn two Bournemouth goals.  The day ended with a disappointing 1-0 win by Man City over Leicester; it wasn't the result so much as this just wasn't the lively contest we had expected.

Steve: And what an unintriguing contest this turned out to be
Dennis: I would be asleep if not for this texting

Sunday was better.  Man United and Wolves got 3-0 wins over relegation rivals Watford and Norwich.  VAR continued to be our friend as Watford had a goal that leveled the match at 1-1 overturned for "handling" and by handling I mean the new definition in which even an accidental touch is enough to rule out a goal.  In this case, the only way Craig Dawon could have avoided the touch was to have his arm amputated.  To appease Jeff H (and because it really was some great work by Martial), we'll make United's second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  United are now 5th and have the last Champions League spot.  Sunday wrapped up with an awesome (as we predicted!) contest between Arsenal and Everton. The Gunners ceded an early goal, then went up 2-1 but gave up another in first half stoppage time.  An early second half goal from Aubameyang was the game winner.  Great back and forth contest for the neutral.  After farting around for two-thirds of the season, Arsenal find themselves with a shot at Champions League.

On Monday, Liverpool decided to taunt me and Dennis with an up-and-down performance against West Ham, at Anfield no less.  The Reds were actually down 1-2 at 54 minutes before Salah and then Mane restored things to their natural order.  The 3-2 final meant that Villa could spent at least another week out of the bottom three.


Champions League First Legs Done

Chelsea hang tough for a while but were eventually buried by Bayern 0-3.  Real Madrid and Man City waged a classic at Bernabeu.  RM's press suffocated City in the first half.  Then, as City were finding some in-roads, RM pounced on a mistake to take a 1-0 lead.  But City got the momentum back and DeJesus leveled things at 78 minutes.  A 1-1 result would have been pretty good but Sterling got fouled in the box and DeBruyne calmly converted the PK.  RM's bad day was complete when Sergio Ramos took down Jesus (never a good thing to take down Jesus) and was red carded for DOGSO, meaning he misses the second leg.

Second legs are 3/10-11 and 3/17-18.  Three sides are heading home with a lead and look like good bets (Man City, Bayern, and Red Bull Leipzig).  Atalanta are on the road to Valencia but at 4-1 they look pretty good too.  Barcelona are 1-1 with Napoli but the second leg is at Camp Nou so you figure they are likely to advance.  The more intriguing stuff is the matches with the home team taking one goal deficits (Liverpool - Atleti, PSG - Dormund, and Juventus -Lyon) into the second leg.  The home sides are favored in all three but will they score enough to overcome the deficits? 



MLS Opens

Kind of snuck up on me.  I always thought they waited until daylight savings time but looking at prior years, that's not the case.  Action starts this Saturday, on Leap Day.  2020 is the 25th season for MLS, which now features 26 teams after adding Miami and Nashville.

For the Union, the biggest change is in the formation - a 4-4-2 diamond (see picture left).  Only one new name in the lineup; the steady but unathletic Haris Medunjanin is gone and Matej Oravec takes his place as defensive midfielder.  The replacement reflects Ernst Tanner's commitment to pressing football. The best news is Monteiro is back.  Last year, the Union got incredible production from Ilsinho off the bench.  He's back and his age (34) doesn't worry us since his game was never built on speed and fitness anyway.  We always liked Gaddis but was hoping for an upgrade this season.  Also, the team's success looks highly dependent on continued development from Aaronson and McKenzie. More expansive assessments of the Union's prospects can be had here and here.  Somewhere from 4th to 7th sounds right to me.  Never a great early season performer, we might expect some struggles early as they master a new formation.  But I think it is the right decision. Last year was great but they were unlikely to advance any further with that formation and personnel.

Spent a little time looking around for MLS projections and found information from 538, ESPN and MLS.  I took the seven MLS projections and averaged them to get an MLS consensus, then put that consensus with the 538 predictions and the ESPN power ranks.  The table is sorted based on that average.  Hopefully this is readable.

				MLS	Writers			MLS	MLS				Average
	Baer	Balboa	Carr	Davies	Doyle	Jack	Lord	Average	Consensus	538	ESPN	AVG	Rank
Atlanta	1	2	2	5	2	1	2	2.14	1	1	1	1.00	1
NYCFC	5	4	1	1	3	6	1	3.00	3	2	3	2.67	2t
Toronto	2	5	4	2	1	3	3	2.86	2	4	2	2.67	2t
Philadelphia	6	2	3	4	7	2	4	4.00	4	3	6	4.33	4
Columbus	4	1	8	7	4	5	6	5.00	5t	8	5	6.50	5t
New England	7	6	5	3	5	4	5	5.00	5t	9	4	6.50	5t
Red Bulls	9	8	7	10	10	10	8	8.86	8t	7	8	7.50	7
DC United	3	7	6	6	8	8	7	6.43	7	10	7	8.00	8
Inter Miami	8	11	9	11	6	7	10	8.86	8t	6	12	9.00	9
Chicago	13	12	11	13	12	13	11	12.14	13	5	11	9.67	10
Orlando	11	9	12	8	9	9	13	10.14	10	11	10	10.33	11
Montreal	12	13	10	9	13	11	9	11.00	11	12	9	10.67	12
Cincinnati	11	10	13	12	11	12	12	11.57	12	13	13	12.67	13

Starting with our parochial interest in the Union, everybody sees the Union as a play off team.  There is a "healthy" range though between 2nd and 7th.  The latter would be disappointing after last year; 3rd or 4th would probably be a pretty good season.  Though no one actually has Atlanta, NYCFC and Toronto - at least in that order - they do look like consensus top three for the conference.  Very curious as to why 538 has Chicago 5th while everyone else sees them at the bottom of the table.


Silverware!

The first of four trophies gets awarded on Sunday to the winner of the Carabao Cup.  Aston Villa will take on Manchester City at 11:30 at Wembley Stadium.  For TV coverage, you can fuggetaboutit.  You can however stream the match on ESPN+.  I believe Dennis would gladly trade any hardware in this competition for three points in EPL competition.  Maybe even one point. Maybe even losses from relegation rivals.

The rest of the EPL (except, Sheffield United and Arsenal - Villa's and City's would-be league opponents this weekend) have more mundane fixtures to deal with.  Except with Champions League spots (maybe two?) up for grabs and relegation still a threat for many teams, everything looks relevant in one way or another.

The weekend starts early with a 3 pm Friday match up between Norwich and Leicester.  Both sides have a raison d'etre but one is more existential than the other.  The Foxes are simply protecting their Champions League position but the Canaries are fighting for their EPL lives; at just 18 points, Norwich are seven short of safety.  Though we tend to get worried about any side below us getting any points, if you're worried about Norwich, you're in bad shape.
 
Even the seemingly uninteresting 7:30 Saturday match (NBCSN) featuring Brighton and Crystal Palace could be a lively affair.  So close to safety now, Palace may be inspired to close the deal but the Seagulls showed some heart last week at Sheffield.  Just three 10 am matches.  The NBCSN match is Bournemouth hosting Chelsea.  The stakes there are pretty clear; Chelsea have precious little margin over the chase pack of Champions League contenders while the wrong (right?) set of results could see Bournemouth in the relegation zone by Sunday brunch.  The NBC Gold contests are Newcastle - Burnley and West Ham - Southampton.  We have occasionally wondered whether the ease with which the fans turn on the Mapgies when things aren't going well means the friendly confines St. James' Park aren't so friendly.  On the other hand, only Liverpool have allowed fewer home goals than Newcastle, just 12 in 13 games.  538 has it has basically a toss-up and I would gladly take that.  West Ham are favored at home, a result that will not be good for me or Dennis.

The 12:30 Saturday feature match on NBC is on NBCSN this week.  They better not have dumped it for curling or some such sport.  US Olympic Marathon Trials?  Okay, we're cool with that.  Anyway, the match is Watford - Liverpool.  We are totally on board with the idea of Liverpool going undefeated.

Two more-than-decent matches on Sunday but unfortunately they are both at 9.  NBCSN will have Everton - Man United while Gold will carry Spurs - Wolves.  According to 538, all four have a non-zero chance of making Champions League so we're expecting some lively action in both.  Our fondness for Wolves will likely draw us to that one but the other could be a real cracker.

And as we noted above, MLS action gets underway this weekend.  The Union will be in action at Dallas at 6 pm on Saturday; locals can catch the match on PHL-17.

Not going to be much rest for the remainder of 2020.  MLS is back in action, the Euro Championships in the spring, US Olympic Trials in June, Olympics this summer and a presidential campaign in the fall.  Soccer, track & field and politics - my three favorite sports.

Stormy Weather

Literally and figuratively.  While England was battered on consecutive weekends by drenching storms,  Newcastle were hammered and Aston Villa sustained a gut wrenching loss.

All week we heard that Dennis was possibly going to force a postponement of the Villa Spurs contest. Sometimes a fan's gotta do what a fan's gotta do.  Had he been successful,  it would have put Dennis in the company of the legendary Crash Davis,  who was able to get his Durham Bulls a rainout when they desperately needed one.  In the end, only one match was postponed - Man City vs West Ham and they were able to make it up on Wednesday.

Unattainable Low Bar

We always go into the fixture versus Arsenal at The Emirates with minimal expectations.  This time all we asked for was no serious injuries and limited damage to the goal differential.  We got neither.  The first half was okay, a 0-0 draw in which Newcastle arguably had the better chances.  The second half went to hell in a handbasket.  Quick goals from Aubameyang and Pepe after the break ended any hope of a result.  Stoppage time goals from Ozil and Lacazette made the final 4-0.  So much for protecting the goal differential, as the Magpies gave up a healthy advantage over Southampton in one fell swoop.  To add injury to insult, in-form Ciaran Clark had to leave in the 83rd minute with an ankle injury.  I haven't seen a timeline for his return but looks like he's out for awhile.  Perfect.


Who Marks Engels (any political economists out there)?

The early match of Sunday, Bloody Sunday was more entertaining but ultimately unsatisfying as well.  Aston Villa got a jump on Spurs thanks to an own goal from Aldervirile Autowelder Toby.  But the lead didn't make it to halftime.  Toby got one back with a very striker-like spin and shoot move.  Bjorn Engels took down Steven Weinberg Bergwijn in the box in first half stoppage time and Son converted the PK for a 2-1 lead.  But Villa were still full of fight and got the equalizer from the aformentioned Engels on Villa's first header goal of the season.  With time running out a draw looked inevitable until Engels completed his busy day with a defensive lapse that sent Son in on goal alone.  The South Korean converted from a difficult angle to steal the win in stoppage time.  Sorry Dennis, but it is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Sure it was set up by a mistake but Son's finish was by no means guaranteed.  Turns out he did it with a fractured arm.  Worse, he may be gone for the season.  Talk about pyrrhic victories.


Help Elsewhere

Newcastle and especially Aston Villa at least got helpful results in other fixtures.  Most useful may have been the 1-1 draw between Brighton - Watford meaning both teams dropped two points.  Sheffield United had to work at it but came away with a 2-1 win over Bournemouth.  Same for Liverpool; they took forever to dispose of Norwich 1-0.  And Man City did just enough to turn away West Ham with a 2-0 win in their make up game.

Spurs were the big winner in the Champions League chase (although the goal posts for that may be moving - see below).  Besides getting their three, Wolves and Leicester played to a 0-0 draw and Chelsea fell at home 0-2 to Man United.  The latter will not go down as one of VAR's better days.  Early on Harry Maguire did the leg in the groin thing that got Tottenham's Son a straight red card earlier this season. Video is here; Harry says he was just trying to keep Batshuayi from falling.  Right.  Chelsea had apparently leveled the match at 1-1 in the 55th minute but the goal was ruled out on a foul by Archipelago Asspitquilta Dave. Sure looked like Fred pushed Dave, who then collided with Brandon Williams.  Video is here.  Possible that Fred's action was a foul, which wouldn't have mattered because the goal was scored.  Rubbing salt into the wounds, Maguire scored later to make the score 2-0 and Chelsea did have another goal ruled out - correctly - for offside.  But to be fair, Chelsea missed enough other chances while Man United converted theirs so who's to say it's not a fair result.


Better Mark Saul

Not so great results for EPL sides in the first leg of their Champions League ties.  Liverpool got sloppy on a corner kick and Atletico's Saul Niguez made them pay with a 4th minute goal.  Though Liverpool looked dominant and did have the lion's share of possession, they managed nary a shot on target.  Hard to get a result that way.  Probably not a knockout blow being down 0-1 heading to Anfield but it reduces their margin for error in the second leg.

Spurs seemed overwhelmed by RB Leipzig for about 64 minutes and were down 0-1 at that point.  A couple of key changes - Lamela in for Dele and Ndombele in for Fernandes - totally changed the dynamic.  Spurs looked fully capable of leveling things but unfortunately couldn't find a goal.  Their position is certainly tenuous as they head to Germany for the second leg with RB Leipzig having an away goal in their pocket.


It's the Cover-Up (Exhibit MMMMCCVIII)

UEFA has banned Man City from Champions League competition for the next two years for breaking the financial fair play rules.  Details can be had here.  Note that part of the problem was that the club misled officials as to what they were doing and also didn't cooperate with UEFA officials:

“The Adjudicatory Chamber has also found that in breach of the regulations the club failed to cooperate in the investigation of this case by the CFCB.”

The working assumption is that if the ban holds (City has of course appealed) and City finishes in the top four, the last Champions League spot will go to the 5th place team.  Right now that would be Spurs but many are in close pursuit.  Note that the ban won't go into effect if the appeal is still pending when 2020-21 Champions League starts; in that case, City will be allowed to participate.


VAR Modifications

Two options for changing how VAR judges offside have been floated but the rule-making board doesn't seem to be all that interested right now.  One change would allow for a 10-20 centimeter (3.9-7.8") tolerance in determining offside.  The other, championed by Arsene Wenger, would basically require that all of the attacker's body be ahead of the next to last defender.

Pick your poison
I'd rather have on-field ref make final decision

While Wenger's approach would mean fewer offside calls, it would not eliminate the VAR controversy; it would just change which plays get reviewed.  I do like the first approach as it recognizes the limits of the technology reviewing the plays and allows for some margin of imprecision.

Speaking of VAR, Jeff H and I were discussing how this may be one thing where MLS is ahead of the EPL.  Recall that in MLS the final decision is still made by the on-field referee, with the VAR merely suggesting whether or not the play justifies review.  He knows what he thought he saw live and the review gives him a chance to see whether that's in fact what happened.  Yeah, he has to go over to the monitor but is it really that much added time compared to the EPL referee standing around with his finger in his ear waiting for someone else to overrule him?


Whoop De Doo For My Subaru

The Union now play in Subaru Park after completing a multi-year sponsorship deal with Subaru.  Details here. The coolest part?  One of the new lots will have 30 free spaces for those who drive a Subaru.  Hey Michael B, can we borrow your car?

Stuff Getting Real

Things get going right away Saturday morning with the 7:30 (NBCSN) contest between 4th place Chelsea and 5th place Tottenham.  The Blues are up one point on Spurs. Yeah, the fact that 5th place might be good enough to make CL this year takes a little of the luster away but you can't count on that happening.  Plus, there's a big chase pack close at hand so these points will be big.

The 10 am games are mostly about relegation.  Newcastle go to BFS favorite Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace.  Both teams haven't quite put the relegation threat behind them yet; a win for either would likely drop the chances to near zero.  At 538 they have the Eagles as solid favorites.  Aston Villa go to Saint Mary's to take on Southampton.  Here's the thing - Southampton are the worst home team in the EPL, with just 11 points in 13 matches.  But as the second worst road team, will Villa be able to come away with something?  Bournemouth will likely have their hands full with an in-form Burnley at Turf Moor.  All three of those are NBC Gold.  The TV game is Champions League hopeful hosting a Brighton side fighting hard not to slide into the relegation zone.

The NBC feature match looks solid with Leicester hosting Man City.  The Foxes had looked like a threat for second but have cooled a bit.  This would be a chance to cut the margin to a point; a loss leaves them seven back.

Sunday has a full plate with two 9 am matches both on TV.  CNBC will have Wolves - Norwich; those of us still fearing relegation will be pulling for Wolves but Champions League contenders will likely prefer the Canaries.  Same thing for the NBCSN game between Man United - Watford.  At 11:30 there's an interesting contest between Arsenal - Everton, two sides that have an outside chance at Champions League.  The Gunners have lost just once since Christmas.  In fact, only Liverpool have fewer losses than them.  Unfortunately, this unbeaten run is clogged with too many draws and not enough wins.  Everton are also hot.  Going by 538 predictions, this is the tightest match of the weekend.

Bonus Monday game is Liverpool vs West Ham.  Not likely that the Hammers pick up anything here, which is just fine with us Magpies and Villans.

Don't forget Champions League action mid-week.  Chelsea host Bayern on Tuesday and Man City travel to Real Madrid on Wednesday.  The latter looks to be a cracker, as they say in the trade.

(Strictly) For the Birds

For the birds

What's the meaning of the phrase 'For the birds'?

Trivial; worthless; only of interest to gullible people.

What's the origin of the phrase 'For the birds'?

This phrase is of American origin and, while still in use there, has never been commonly used elsewhere. It is US Army slang and originated towards the end of WWII. An early example of its use is this piece from The Lowell Sun, October 1944, in an interview with a Sergt. Buck Erickson, of Camp Ellis, Illinois:

"Don't take too seriously this belief that we have football at Camp Ellis solely for the entertainment of the personnel - that's strictly for the birds. The army is a winner... the army likes to win - that's the most fortunate thing in the world for America."

'Strictly' is frequently used as an intensifier, as in the example above.

Newcastle manager Steve Bruce; Can
 anybody here play this game?

Or, for example, the Newcastle Magpies - Norwich Canaries 0-0 draw at St. James' Park was strictly for the birds.

Taking in Saturday's action from BFS's Northern Office in Allentown, Dennis, Brenna, Baine (Dennis's pooch) and I saw some pretty wretched football.  Our respective sides got decidedly poor results and looked bad doing it.

We started with Bournemouth - Aston Villa, a critical fixture for both.  Dennis didn't really agree but I thought a draw from this road match would be good enough to keep the Cherries at bay; he thought they needed all three points given so few other opportunities.  No matter, the Villans got neither.  They looked nothing like the squad that had defeated Leicester mid-week in the Carabao Cup.  Two late first half goals for Bournemouth were not really surprising given the run of play.  Villa got a glimmer of hope when Lerma was sent off with a second yellow at 51 minutes; alas, that seemed to do little for their fortunes.  New acquisition Mbwana "What" Samatta did get one back at 70 minutes but that's how things ended.  The 1-2 loss is quite problematic for the relegation struggle.

With Dennis already down, we turned to Newcastle, who had every reason to expect something positive from a home match with Norwich.  The Magpies were outplayed by the Canaries and the 0-0 draw is totally flattering to the home side.  Brenna and Baine fell asleep early; Dennis drifted off for 20 minutes or so.  I was left to cringe by myself.  That's all I'm going to say about the match.

We tried one more and got a little bit of satisfaction when Everton rallied from 0-2 to beat Watford 3-2.  The Toffee's comeback included two goals in first half stoppage time and a goal in the 90th minute by Theo Walcott.  Watford getting no points from the match was some, though small, consolation for the other results.

Aston Villa are in the thick of the relegation battle and Newcastle can't seem to quite get themselves fully clear.  At least the Magpies have some control over their destiny.  It's starting to look like Villa will need help from others.  And by others we mean top of the table; as in stop giving away points to the bottom feeders.  I compared the points of each place in the table through the same point last year and you can see what I mean.

Place	19-20	18-19	Diff	Place	19-20	18-19	Diff
1	73	61	12	11	31	32	-1
2	51	59	-8	12	31	31	0
3	49	57	-8	13	31	27	4
4	41	50	-9	14	30	26	4
5	37	48	-11	15	26	24	2
6	36	47	-11	16	26	24	2
7	35	38	-3	17	25	24	1
8	35	34	1	18	24	22	2
9	33	33	0	19	23	17	6
10	31	33	-2	20	18	11	7

Look at the drop for places 2-6.  And note that everybody from 13th on down has more points than last year.  Also, see the difference in points between 2nd and 19th; last year at this time it was 42 but this year it's only 28.  The bottom line - it may take more points than usual to escape relegation.


Happy Birthday Michael B

Sunday's Tottenham - Man City match offered little prospect for a nice birthday present for Michael.  Spurs had gotten a few breaks earlier in the weekend with many key competitors for Champions League spots getting draws including Leicester - Chelsea (2-2), Wolves - Man United (0-0; would have gotten the over/under wrong there) and Burnley - Arsenal (0-0; oh Gunners...). Spurs played pretty tough in the first half, which ended 0-0.  Michael and I had been trading What's App texts with BFS England Tour Guide Simon W.  At the break, Simon offered that Spurs second half strategy ought to be to get two City players sent off with red cards.  Nobody was laughing when Zinchenko got sent off with his second yellow at 60 minutes!  Spurs pounced quickly with newcomer Steven Bergwijn scoring on a nice volley at 63 minutes, then Son adding insurance at 71 minutes.  Michael's b-day present didn't come gift wrapped but he enjoyed it anyway.

So the race for Champions League (and Europa Cup) spots is on.  Though Leicester have shown some cracks, 538 still has them solid for third.  Somewhat the same for Chelsea; despite some ups and downs, they are still 64% for 4th.  Compare that to 19% for Tottenham, 10% for Wolves, 7% for Man United, 4% for Sheffield United and 3% for Everton.  Any of those would be considered longer shots for Champions League but definitely in the mix for Europa.  I'm a little surprised at how strong Chelsea looks for that 4th spot given how they've played.  The absence of Arsenal from this list is puzzling or concerning depending on your affinity for the Gunners.  Even worse, they are still showing a 1% chance of relegation.  Pardon me but WTF?


The Kids Were Alright (apologies again to The Who)

Normally a midweek FA Cup replay is as welcome as a root canal but at least this time, teams were not facing Saturday matches.  For their part, Newcastle jumped on host Oxford and were up 2-0 by 30 minutes.  From there, things got tedious (nice description, Simon), then thrilling.  In what is clearly the Newcastle way, the Magpies allowed a goal in the 84th minute to make things interesting.  A stoppage time equalizer made it ridiculous.  In the old days this would have necessitated another replay but fortunately these are not the old days and the match proceeded to extra time.  Newcastle started to play better but this had all the markings of a match to be decided on PKs.  Allan Saint-Maximin decided this was not acceptable and took matters into his own feet.  Watch the moves to get open and the power of the shot in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Just four minutes before the final whistle, it was the game winner to send Newcastle onto the 5th Round (final 16) for the first time since 2006.

Meanwhile, at Anfield, Liverpool's U-23 squad were playing League One Shrewsbury.  Took awhile (75 minutes) and an own goal but the Baby Reds prevailed 1-0.  Shrewsbury officials were less than pleased with Klopp's choice of playing the U-23s, noting that it probably cut the gate receipts by more than $500,000.  Also, had the match not been at an EPL venue, VAR would not have been available to rule out a Shrewsbury goal for offside.

Rules say "trip or attempt to trip" so probably the right call

On Wednesday, Spurs completed a dramatic come-from-behind win over Southampton. In truth, the Saints were the better squad for almost 80 minutes, generating more offense and basically slicing through a baffled Tottenham squad.  Then a great shot from Lucas Moura raised the possibility of extra time.  Fortunately that would not be necessary as Shrewsbury's keeper tripped, attempted to trip or hold or whatever, Son in the box.  Son did not fail to convert and Tottenham walked away with an improbable 3-2 win.

So the 5th Round fixtures are set and can be viewed here.  Newcastle get West Brom; sure they're Championship Division but they are on pace to win the league and return to the EPL. Plus the match is at The Hawthorns so we are the road team again.  Notice that Chelsea - Liverpool is another of the match ups.  Arguably that's two semi-finalists meeting in the quarters.  That's part of the magic of the FA Cup. 


MLS and Players Reach Agreement

New charter flight rules mean we probably
won't be getting pictures like this from Jeff K

Players and the MLS signed a new Collective Bargaining Agreement on Thursday.  Details can be had here.  The good news is that this means there will be no player strike and the season will start on time on February 29th.  The bad news is that the increased allowance for charter flights means frequent flyer Jeff K will not likely run into the Union on one of his many trips.

Side note: Player rep Jeff Larentowicz is a Chestnut Hill Academy product.

Speaking of Fabian, he just signed a deal to play in Qatar.  Hopefully there was no communication error between him and his agent when he said I'll play anywhere close to Upper Darby.  (To Bob K - I never tire of that one.)


The Mid-season Fan Player Break

Though I doubt the EPL had us in mind, the upcoming break does give us fans a chance to catch our breath after the holidays and multiple cup competitions.  Matchweek 26 is spread out over the next two weekends so, while there are matches to watch, the concentration is less than usual.  Note that neither Saturday has matches in the traditional 10 am time slot.  We see some notable matches in the fixture list.  All matches are NBCSN, except the two 12:30 Saturday games, which are NBC.

Not sure the 7:30 am Saturday contest between Everton and Crystal Palace qualifies as notable.  Though probably safe, Palace have been on an awful run, while Everton have rescued their season from the ashes and even have a tiny, tiny chance of getting to fourth.   The 12:30 game is a classic - and critical - relegation matchup with Brighton hosting Watford.  The Seagulls have eight points from their last 10 contests and have squandered a good early season to find themselves uncomfortably close to the relegation zone.  Watford on the other hand did manage a hot streak that lifted (?) them  to 19th in table.  They have cooled a little and are still clearly in the relegation mix.

Sunday is on the tepid side, with Sheffield United hosting Bournemouth at 9 and Man City traveling to West Ham at 11:30.  Though important standings wise, they don't look like exciting contests.  Where you stand on these matches likely depends on where you sit.  Bottom halvers will prefer Sheffield and Man City; those with Champions League aspirations will be pulling for Bournemouth and the Hammers.

Great looking match the following Friday between Wolves and Leicester at 3 pm.  Highly recommend watching this one.  Saturday not as great with Southampton - Burnley (both likely safe but also not in contention for Champions League) at 7:30 and Liverpool heading to Norwich at 12:30; for the latter I guess there's still the drama of whether the Reds will go undefeated this season.

And there is Sunday, bloody Sunday, for the BFS crew.  At 9 we can watch Aston Villa struggle against Spurs then at 11:30 endure what is surely a loss for Newcastle as they travel to their own Little Shop of Horrors, the Emirates, to take on Arsenal.  In both cases all we realistically hope to come out with is no more injuries.

A cracker ends the matchweek on Monday at 3 pm with Chelsea hosting Man United.  At 538 they have this as a blow out for Chelsea but we're hoping for something more interesting from two teams that have been consistently inconsistent.

Hopefully, you'll enjoy the matches spread out at a more leisurely pace.

BFS will observe a Mid-Season Blogger Break as well and will return the week of 2/17.

Cups Running Over

Pretty satisfying few days even without league action.


More FA Cup Do Overs

Seven EPL sides are on to the 5th round and three more went crashing out over the weekend.  And four others got the most wonderful of presents, a midweek FA Cup replay.  All the scores are here. 

Prenton Park - Like the Water Tower, just more spectators

Notable memories from the weekend include watching Man United play at Tranmere on a pitch (see left) that had clearly hosted a tractor pull the night before.  Didn't seem to bother the Red Devils as they marched to a 6-0 win.  Newcastle - Oxford was a 0-0 snooze-fest, which is a big problem because 1) Oxford are a League One side (3rd division) and 2) the match was at home.  Frankly, I was half hoping Oxford would score in the closing minutes so we wouldn't have to do a road replay next week.  Possibly a great way to stifle the Magpies is to let them have possession; they seem less dangerous when they have the ball.  The thing is, should Newcastle get a win in the replay, their 5th round opponent is West Brom, meaning they have a plausible path to the FA Cup quarter finals.  Wait, who am I kidding?  This is Newcastle and the FA Cup.  Get real.

I didn't see the Southampton - Spurs 1-1 draw but at least the replay is back in London for Spurs.  Clearly the shock of the weekend was mega-minnow Shrewsbury scoring in the 65th and 75th minutes to rally from an 0-2 deficit to draw with Liverpool.  So get this.  Liverpool have not surrendered a lead to any EPL team this year and have won 23 and drawn once in 24 EPL matches but here's mighty Shrewsbury accomplishing both.  Granted the Liverpool line-up was dotted with second string.  The replay will be back an Anfield.

Except Klopp has already said he's playing the U23 team in that one.  Basically the issue stems from what the EPL is calling a "mid-season player break."  The intent was to make sure that every club had a weekend off in February, which offered somewhere between 13 and 16 days off depending on your exact schedule.  As explained in this article, the Shrewsbury replay falls inside Liverpool's two week break, leaving them with just 10 days off.  Klopp has said he planned the season with that break and obviously feels he has bigger fish to fry than the FA Cup.  Note that Spurs, Southampton and Newcastle also get a shorter break because of these replays.

Always something with the FA Cup.


Suddenly We Carabao It Cup

Two solid semi final second legs.  To the extent that anything involving the Carabao Cup can be considered a classic, the Aston Villa - Leicester match would qualify.  Recall that was 1-1 heading into the second leg.  Both sides, but mostly Leicester created opportunities early.  Somewhat against the run of play, Villa's Matt Targett scored in the 12th minute.  Just great end-to-end stuff throughout so it wasn't surprising when Leicester leveled things in the 72nd minute.  The Foxes looked the likelier side to find a game winner to save the contest from a dreaded PK shootout.  But it was Aston Villa in the 93 minute on a cross from Ahmed "Tickle Me" Elmohamady to Mahmoud Hassan who took the honors.  Nice goal, deserving of this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Though we continuously make fun of the competition, the Villa fans seemed energized enough by the win, storming the field at the final whistle.

I didn't see the other semi - a Manchester derby -  but Dennis tells me "surprisingly watchable."  Trailing 1-3 after the first leg, Nemanja "Auto" Matic got one back for United in the 35th minute.  The comeback would sputter out though, party because Matic picked up a second yellow in the 76th minute; that left the Red Devils a little short of the needed attacking power to level the match. 

So Man City will face Aston Villa on Sunday March 1 at Wembley. 


Newcastle Get Their Men

This would be one of the more productive transfer windows in recent memory for the Magpies.  Granted, it looks like a Tottenham close-out sale but I think it works for us.  First we got defensive midfielder Nabil Bentaleb from Schalke on loan; you might remember him from his days with Spurs.  Then we got left fullback Danny Rose on loan from Tottenham.  He fills a huge gap created by the losses to injuries of Paul Dummett and Jetro Willems.  We also added Valentino Lazaro from Inter Milan to help out at right wing/midfielder.  All make enormous sense and strengthen the squad.

Biggest news league wide I guess would be Bruno Fernandes going from Sporting Lisbon to Manchester United.  He'll be a force in the midfield as both a goal scorer and a playmaker. 

Aston Villa made some moves earlier in the month, adding Danny Drinkwater (who has frankly looked awful in his appearances so far) and veteran keeper Pepe Reina.  This week they picked up striker Samatta from the Belgian side Genk.  Dennis wasn't overwhelmed by the latter but his ratings in Football Manager aren't bad.


Critical Matches

Sure that Cup stuff was fun but this weekend it's back to the real prizes - not getting relegated and chasing a Champions League spot.  I'll be at my referee recertification clinic until 12 so gonna be on major delay this weekend.

Things get going right away with a 7:30 Leicester - Chelsea match up.  The Foxes look pretty solid for a Champions League spot but Chelsea have work to do, holding a six point lead over a chase pack that includes Man United, Wolves and Spurs. A full slate of six matches at 10.  Dennis and I will be turning to NBC Gold for a critical relegation showdown between Bournemouth and Aston Villa, following it up with Newcastle-Norwich.  This could be a season defining moment for the Villans, as you can't find a lot of points elsewhere in their schedule.  Newcastle still need some points to end the relegation threat and Norwich at St. James' Park sure looks like a good place to start.  A third relegation-relevant contest at 10 am is West Ham - Brighton.  The NBCSN 10 am match is Liverpool - Southampton.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is a dandy between Man United and Wolves - two the sides vying for that fourth Champions League spot.

Sunday's 9 am match on NBCSN is Burnley - Arsenal; I'm stunned to see that 538 has Burnley as a slight, very slight favorite here.  But then I see the two are actually tied on points, with Arsenal having a slightly better goal differential.  Arsenal were surprisingly quiet in this transfer window too.  The 11:30 match has Tottenham hosting Man City; this is not likely to be a match for Spurs to make up ground.  I think Michael will be rooting for Leicester to beat Chelsea so they don't lose any more ground. 

Don't forget the FA Cup replays on Tuesday and Wednesday, if you have ESPN+.

Hollywood Scripts

An incredible six days of football.  Couldn't have written crazier story lines for Newcastle's two matches.  But there was plenty of other good stuff spread across week.

We'll start with Matchweek 23, which overall was a gas with every contest compelling in its own way.  Come from behind wins, multiple lead changes, results hanging in the balance to the final whistle.  Good enough that each deserves a second look, like an Academy Award nominated film.

It's A Wonderful Day in the Neighborhood - Oh to be Tyneside after Hayden's last minute goal for Newcastle's 1-0 win over Chelsea (more below).

The Grealishman - Aston Villa grab 1-1 draw thanks to Jack Grealish - the man they rely on when there's trouble.

Blades Out - Probably seems like a comedic farce to Arsenal but a late goal from Sheffield United means they only get one point at home.

Managers' Story - David Moyes (West Ham) and Carlo Ancelotti (Everton) deal with life in the EPL as new bosses of franchises that have seen better days; Moyes was probably happier than Ancelotti with the 1-1 draw as Everton head to that netherworld of being safe from relegation but pretty much eliminated from Europe Cups.

The Absence of Kyle Walker - Man City may have wondered if they would have been better off with Kyle Walker in the line up; down 0-1 for most of the day they tallied twice late and appeared to have all three in the bag until an own goal from Fernandinho finished the 2-2 classic.

19-17 - Okay, there weren't quite that many goals but it was a wild day in Southampton.  Wolves spotted the Saints two first half goals but got three of their own in the second half to take a 3-2 win.  Note that we did offer this as the match of the week for neutrals.  Blind squirrel and all that I guess.

Harry - Spurs continue to struggle without their leader Harry Kane and played Watford to a 0-0 draw.

The One Pope - Burnley can thank keeper Nick Pope for their 2-1 comeback win over Leicester.  He had seven saves, none more critical than denying Jamie Vardy's PK.

Les Miserables - This is how bad things are for Bournemouth.  Their fate was sealed when Steve Cook made a diving, fingertip save to deny a certain goal.  See the problem is that Cook is not a goalkeeper.  So he goes off with a red card for DOGSO and Teemu "You Can't Spell" Pukki "Without PK" converts the spot kick.  Down a man and down a goal.  Norwich had a man sent off at 76 minutes but that was not enough time for the Cherries to rescue a result.

Once Upon a Time...in Liverpool - Their magical season continues with a 2-0 win over Man United.  The Reds did dominate for much of the match but didn't put the match away until stoppage time.  According to 538, Liverpool's chances of winning the EPL are now greater than 99%.  Probably higher than that but you know those stat guys always leave a little room.

Dennis reacts to Newcastle stealing points again

I started the Newcastle match with low expectations - minimal damage to the goal differential and no injuries.  Even that low bar was in jeopardy after Jetro Willems blew out his knee early.  Credit to the lads, especially the back line, for some excellent defending.  So we entered stoppage time 0-0.  With a draw in sight, I had to remind myself of initial expectations lest I get too excited.  The next thing I know, Newcastle are taking a corner kick in the final seconds - a draw is in the bag.  Turns out more than that.  The corner went into the box but was quickly headed back out to Saint-Maximin;  he sent a good cross back into the box, which Isaac Hayden deposited in the goal.  An easier pick for a YouTubeableMoment there's never been.  Actually, that's not completely true - it was hard to pick from all the fan videos showing the fan reaction at Saint James' Park.  So there it was - more stolen points and the Magpies chances of relegation fall from 20% to 10%.  Sweet.


Let's Do That Again

LeJeune may have to teach this technique to Newcastle strikers

So after that full weekend, there's no way the weekday matches would measure up right?  Wrong.  There was still plenty to go.  And top of the list again was Newcastle.  Away to Everton, the Magpies performed like they were playing with house money after stealing the win over Chelsea.  I know I was feeling that way.  Thinking we'd get at most one point from the two matches, it was hard to get too worked up with three already in the bank.  A nice pass from Bernando set up one and an ill-advised interception attempt from Lascelles opened the door for a second.  We even saw Newcastle, down 0-2, move to a prevent defense, taking off Joelinton (ineffective again, damn) for defender Fabian Schar.  All of which made the ending more improbable.  Florian LeJeune put in a goal in the 94th minute which looked like it would be nothing more than an amusing footnote.  Amusing because LeJeune is a center defender and he scored with a bicycle kick (see picture) plus it wasn't going to change the result.  When he scored another a minute later, no one was laughing.  Well, certainly not Evertonians.  The rest of us could merely shake our heads.  LeJeune is now equal second leading scoring and his brace means that 12 of Newcastle's 24 goals have been scored by defenders.

The Grealishman celebrates Villa's game winner

While Newcastle were taking on Everton, Aston Villa were facing Watford in what was pretty close to a must-win contest.  To add to the day's weirdness, as Newcastle were staging their ludicrous comeback, Aston Villa were completing their own improbable ending.  The texts show the timing:

4:23 Steve:  Unf***ing believable.  It's 2-2.
4:24 Dennis: I really hate you.
4:24 Dennis: Never mind!!!!!! 2-1 baby.

On basically the last kick of the game, Tyrone Mings lifted the Villans out of the relegation zone.  Though not confident, Dennis now feels there's at least some hope they won't be heading back to the Championship division.

Running out of steam here but there were several other highly watchable contests midweek.  Chelsea - Arsenal was a classic, though definitely more so for Gunners fans.  David Luiz got a red card for DOGSO at 26 minutes so Arsenal were down a goal and down a man.  Martinelli surprisingly got one back and Arsenal had hopes for a draw until Assculpetal Apsequelta Dave put Chelsea back up again at 84 minutes.  Surely that was the game winner.  No, and stop calling me Shirley.   Hector Bellerin got himself free at the top of the box (you never score from there) and rescued a point for Arsenal.  Up a man and Chelsea twice give up the lead.  Ouch.

On Wednesday Spurs struggled - at home - against Norwich but got their 2-1 win.  It shouldn't be this hard for Tottenham.  On Thursday, Wolves took Liverpool to the limit but came away with nothing after a late goal by Firmino.  Great second half of action. 

Heading into the FA Cup break some things are clear.  Up 16 points with a game in hand (against West Ham), Liverpool are basically champions-elect.  Man City look pretty safe for top three and Leicester are getting close.  Chelsea are just six up on the chase pack for the fourth spot but 538 says they are good bets to fend off Tottenham, Man United and Wolves.  At the other end, Norwich are close to wrapping up relegation.  But the other two spots are up for grabs so to speak between Bournemouth, Aston Villa, West Ham, Watford and Brighton.  Newcastle are close to safety but not over the line yet.  It does appear that the points required to avoid relegation may be on the high side this year - in the high 30s.  I argue that this is a function of the relative mediocrity of places 4-8 at the upper end of the table.  Those sides have been giving up points to the bottom of the table at a higher than normal rate.  Thanks guys.


Sometimes Autocorrect Is Correct

While texting Dennis, autocorrect revised Virgil van Dijk to Virgil Can Dunk.  Dennis said there was nothing wrong with the correction.  His girlfriend Brenna went a step further, asking do we know for certain that van Dijk is not Dutch for can dunk?


Other Stuff

We're in one of those times when you there was/is football on every day but one between Saturday and following Wednesday. EPL took care of us Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.   FA Cup takes over Friday to Monday.  That schedule is here.  Unfortunately you'll need ESPN+ to catch any of those matches.  Selected games of note include Newcastle-Oxford (10 am Saturday), Southampton-Spurs (10 am Saturday), Tranmere-Man United (Sunday 10 am), Shrewsbury-Liverpool (Sunday at 12) and Bournemouth-Arsenal (Monday at 3 pm).  We didn't mention Aston Villa because they are already out and Dennis loves it.

But Villa do have to play the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi against Leicester on Tuesday.  That one is knotted at 1-1 so all to play for there.  Wednesday is the other semi, with Man City bringing a 3-1 lead home against Man United. 

Yeah, we make fun of both competitions but you know we'll be watching.

This and That

Decidedly mixed results for teams of interest to the blog.  Everything from blow-out wins to draws good and bad to close losses to blow-out losses.

Newcastle started well, attacking from the get-go so the early goal from Almiron was not undeserved.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; the finishing was excellent but don't miss the first pass from Willems and the deft touch from Gayle to put it on Almiron's foot.  Things pretty much went downhill from there.  Wolves took just seven minutes to equalize on a corner.  Paul Dummett returning from a groin injury had already been substituted with a hamstring injury to the other leg.  Symmetrically, Gayle, returning from a hamstring problem, had to go off at 28 minutes with a groin injury.  This is not what I meant by turning the injury situation around.  Joelinton was hurting the whole time but held on until 79 minutes. More on injuries below.

The second half was not pretty.  The two sides racked up 25 fouls between them (12 for Magpies, 13 for Wolves) and Newcastle accumulated three yellow cards in the final 25 minutes.  Announcer Gary Taphouse called it a "scrappy stalemate."  And you know what?   That worked just fine for me because the last thing Newcastle needed was to get into a track meet with Wolves.  Adama Traore is one of my favorite players but not so much when he is running at a depleted Newcastle back line.  The 1-1 final looks like another stolen point which we will gladly accept.

And about those injuries.  There was some discussion about whether this happened to the Magpies under Benitez.  Enough so that The Chronicle commissioned PremierInjuries.com to dig into their data base to compare Newcastle 19/20 to the previous two years.  The article is here and the website is here.  The number of injuries is basically unchanged over the three-year period.  Looking at the 19/20 and 18/19 numbers, I'm struck that there are seven players who show up in both years and eight that show up multiple times in a year.  Maybe this has more to do with the specific players than the training regimen and/or playing time.  I really like what both Shelvey and Dummett bring to the team but they have had five and four injuries respectively over the past two years. 


There Are No Points For A Moral Victory 

Dennis watching the Man City Aston Villa match

Tottenham played Liverpool as well as anybody has this year and got the same number of points - zero - as everybody else (except Man United) who's played them this year.  The Aston Villa experience against Man City was as bad as we feared it would be; the 1-6 final is very representative of the match I saw.  Arsenal could  manage only 1-1 draw with Palace.  Based on highlights I saw, best viewing of the weekend  was Leicester - Southampton. Danny Ings snatched the 2-1 win for the Saints with a late goal.  The Foxes had several off the woodwork and a tying goal in the dying moments was ruled out for offside.  Southampton's transformation is just about complete now as 538 has them with just a  3% chance of relegation.  Everton's turnaround is even more thorough.  After a 1-0 defeat of Brighton, the Toffee's chances of relegation dropped to less than 1%, which we note is lower than Arsenal's slim but registrable 1%.  Man United did get healthy against Norwich, recording an easy 4-0 win.  Chelsea's 3-0 win over Burnley keeps them well in command of the fourth Champions League spot.


Great Peril

BFS Goalie Consultant Graham points out that after losing to 0-3 to - at home - to Watford, Eddie Howe is facing great peril.  Here we see Bournemouth fans pointing that out to him.  Seriously, Howe now has the "best" odds of being the next manager to be sacked.  At 7+ years he's the longest serving manager right now.  Certainly he must have done something right to get Bournemouth into the top flight and keep them there for four years so far.  Maybe they got a little stale after a series of solid mid table finishes.


VAR Accidental Handball Fainting Couch

I will agree that VAR has probably been overused to make hair-splitting offside calls.  But IMHO the bigger rule change travesty this year has been the inadvertent handball calls to rule out goals.  And once again, most of the anger is misplaced.  It's not the VAR, it's that intent has been taken out of the equation if there is handling in the scoring or creation of a goal.

Case in point is last Friday's Sheffield United - West Ham match (a great watch by the way).  Sheffield United were up 1-0 when West Ham scored in stoppage time.  You can see the play here (should open to the incident).  Two things about Rice's "handling" of the ball.  First, it was not an offense until the goal was scored so there was no reason for Oliver to blow the whistle at that point. Second, in any other circumstance, there is no offense; it's simply an accidental touching of the ball that is not supposed to be whistled.  The purists have been yakking about how VAR is an affront when it was the purists who pushed for this stupid rule change because somehow it was unseemly to have a goal scored under this circumstance.  Keep VAR but chuck this rule.

Fun side note from the incident, as Dennis learns life as a fan of a relegation-threatened side:

West Ham scores - I get excited cause it was a cool moment.  Then I realize I don't want West Ham getting any points and literally say " I hope some VAR nonsense brings this back."

He subsequently clarified that he agreed that this was a problem with the handling rule, not VAR.


If At First You Don't Succeed

There's always the FA Cup replay.  Newcastle passed their test with a 4-1 win over Rochdale.  So what if the goals were mostly ugly, at least it was an easy win.  Spurs, again shunning the easy road, jumped out to quick 2-0 lead on Middlesbrough but never put the Championship division side away.  So things were tight at the end when Middlesbrough broke through at 83 minutes.  Man United and Wolves played again and despite great end-to-end stuff could only conjure up a 1-0 for the Red Devils. 

The schedule for the next round, with games to be contested the weekend (four-day) of 1/24-1/27, can be found here.  Wait a second.  The Watford - Tranmere replay is next Thursday?  So here's the Hornets schedule:

1/18 vs Spurs (H)
1/21 vs Aston Villa (A)
1/23 vs Tranmere (A)
1/26 vs Man United (if they beat Tranmere) (H)

That seems brutal.  Certainly those in the relegation fight with Watford don't mind.



Union Splash Some Cash

A collective sigh of relief that Monteiro
will be back in the midfield
MORGAN TENCZA / PHILADELPHIA UNION

Very welcome news that the Union agreed to a $2m transfer fee to make Jamiro Monteiro's move to Philadelphia permanent.  As discussed here, this was another fine piece of work by Sporting Director Ernst Tanner.  For some time it wasn't clear that 1) the Union would be willing to spend the money, 2) that FC Metz had a reasonable number in mind and - most importantly - 3) did Monteiro really want to stay.  Though the player rankings at WhoScored and the Audi Player Index listed CATS-purr shuh-BILL-koh higher, Monteiro was no slouch at 13th in the WhoScored rankings and 35th in the Audi Player Index.  Unofficial polling data of the Northwest Philly Union Season Ticket Holders (Steve, Graham, Jeff H, and Jeff K) actually had Monteiro as the team's most valuable player.  So instead of spending the rest of the off/pre season filling a hole in the midfield, like we have in successive seasons, Tanner can focus on building on last year's successful season.


Two Fer Schedule

We get a double dose of EPL this week with Match Week 23 covering Saturday and Sunday and Match Week 24 spread over Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  And if we are to believe the 538 predictions, there's a bunch of tight contests, especially on the weekend.  Over the 20 fixtures, I count seven for which the win percentage difference is 10 or less.

Unfortunately Newcastle's fixture is not one of those.  The Magpies are the feature match Saturday at 12:30 on NBC as they take on Chelsea at St. James' Park.  Chelsea have of late been staking a claim to the 4th Champions League spot so we'll be more than thrilled if Newcastle can scrape out a point here.

Saturday starts bright and early (7:30 on NBCSN) with Watford-Tottenham.  Scarily for Spurs, 538 has this at 34-41-25 - meaning Watford has 34% chance of winning, Spurs have 41% and a draw is at 25%.  I would guess this is dismaying to Michael B and other Spurs supporters but Watford are unbeaten in their last five and Spurs have looked less than solid.

The 10 am slot is crowded with six fixtures.  The TV game is Arsenal-Sheffield United which could be lively enough though the Gunners are solid favorites at home.  The choices on NBC Gold look more inviting.  How about Southampton - Wolves (38-35-27)?  That could be a good back-and-forth match.  That would be my recommendation for the neutral.  If you're into the relegation specials there's Norwich (20th in the table) - Bournemouth (19th); that's listed 37-36-27).  West Ham hosting Everton is also tight at 36-38-26.  Though I might prefer the Southampton - Wolves contest, I'll likely be taking in the relegation-relevant battle between Brighton and Aston Villa, if only as moral support for Dennis and the Villans.

Sunday's matches are Burnley - Leicester at 9 am and Liverpool - Man United at 11:30.  Will probably check in on the latter though we doubt the Red Devils have an answer for Liverpool's strength.

The mid-week calendar isn't quite as tasty but some stuff is worth checking out.   TV viewers will be limited to Chelsea - Arsenal at 3:15 on Tuesday, Man United - Burnley at 3:15 on Wednesday and Wolves - Liverpool at 3 pm on Thursday; all those are on NBCSN.  Despite its pedigree, the Gunners will have to step up their game if they want to make that London derby interesting.  Tuesday we'll be stuck watching Newcastle deal with Everton at Goodison Park on NBC Gold and once again a draw is about as good as we can imagine there.  Some relegation specials on Tuesday as well, with Bournemouth - Brighton and Aston Villa - Watford.  Spurs might have a bit of break taking on Norwich at home on Wednesday.

With winter looking to settle in for a week or so, this packed fixture list is more than welcome.

Replays, Minnows and Replays with Minnows

What a draw to a lower tier side in the FA Cup
feels like

The first weekend of EPL involvement in the FA Cup provided all the usual highlights.  There were some blowouts, some surprising upsets of EPL sides by minnows and the requisite number of annoying draws with minnows that will require intrusive mid-week replays in the middle of congested league schedules. 

Newcastle got an early lead thanks to a goal from Almiron but never really asserted themselves against Rochdale and the 79th minute equalizer was no surprise.  Another really poor outing from Joelinton.  Some solace in that it looks like Matt Ritchie is ready to play.

Dennis could barely contain his delight that Aston Villa fell to Championship division Fulham.  For his money, if it doesn't involve points in the EPL standings, it is an unnecessary distraction. The Fulham goals were pretty good strikes.  Michael was more philosophical about Spurs draw to Championship division Middlesborough, especially after a near-viewing disaster in which ESPN+ claimed they didn't have a subscription listed under his email address.  He ended up missing just a few minutes.  Plus the replay will be at home.  Better than Watford's fate, a 3-3 draw to League 1 relegation candidate Tranmere at home no less, which means a road replay. 

Some claimed the 0-0 Wolves - Man United contest was a bore but I find it pretty good viewing; sure they couldn't finish for s....quat but it was good end-to-end football.  Ooh, United had no shots on target.  And for Jurgen Klopp this time the kids were more than alright.  Though criticized for starting youngsters against Everton, he got the last laugh as Liverpool came away with a 1-0 win.

The overall tally for the EPL was 11 wins, five draws and four losses.  Besides Villa and Everton, Brighton fell to Sheffield Wednesday and Crystal Palace went down to Derby County; both Championship division sides. 


Don't Carabao It Cup

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer after Rashford's goal closes the
deficit to 1-3

The first legs of the two semi-finals were contested on Tuesday and Wednesday.  In an extra Manchester derby, City had the upper hand, jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the first half at Old Trafford.  A late goal from Marcus Rashford may have given United some life but heading to The Etihad down 1-3 doesn't seem like a winning strategy.  In the Wednesday match, Aston Villa played Leicester to a 1-1 draw.  Dennis lamented that they did so by playing much of the first team in a "meaningless" mid-week match.  He would gladly have traded this result for a point in any of the upcoming EPL matches.  Return matches are 1/28 and 1/29.



Department of Irony

Michael B's friend Simon (our tour guide in London) lives in Norwich and vacations in the Canary Islands.  Know that only readers of this blog will get the irony.


Get On With It



Yes, let's get back to the important stuff. 

The weekend starts a day early with Sheffield United - West Ham Friday afternoon at 3 pm.

Saturday's early match (7:30 NBCSN) looks worth getting up for - a London derby featuring Crystal Palace Arsenal at Selhurst Park.  Maybe a sign of the Gunners inconsistency that they are barely favored in the match.

The five matches at 10 am don't exactly get the blood flowing.  We'll be watching Newcastle vs Wolves at Molineux on Gold because we have to.  Very low expectations for that one, though somewhat buoyed by the possible return of some key players.  A draw would be awesome.  TV goes with Chelsea - Burnley.  If I wasn't otherwise occupied, I'd choose Everton - Brighton; both have done some good work recently to significantly reduce their relegation chances but remain in danger.  Man United can maybe keep pace in the race for 4th with a home match against bottom dweller Norwich.  Leicester - Southampton fills out the 10 am slot.

An important contest in the NBC feature match at 12:30 with Spurs hosting Liverpool.  Probably should put important in "".  Even at home, that looks like a tough assignment for Tottenham.

Sunday morning (9 am NBCSN) starts with a relegation special between Bournemouth and Watford.   These are two sides moving in different directions, with Watford finally lifting themselves out of the bottom and actually putting together a good streak and Bournemouth sliding down the table into the relegation zone.  The second match at 11:30 on NBCSN has all the appeal of a car crash; Aston Villa will likely struggle even at home against Man City.

Weekend temps in the 60s so maybe more DVR and less live action than recent weeks.