Toothless and Lifeless

Without saves like this from Dubravka all year, Newcastle
would be up the Tyne without a paddle

The Chronicle had fun finding all the various "less" adjectives the national media employed to describe the Newcastle performance versus Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park.  These two were apt as any.  That the final was just 0-1 is a tribute to the netminding of Martin Dubravka.  But if you can't score, the best goalkeeping in the world will not be enough.  The last time the Magpies found the net in an EPL match was way back on January 21, when LeJeune helped them steal a point with a 95th minute tally.  Since then it's been bagels versus Norwich (a defensive juggernaut that has ceded 51 goals so far this season), Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  One feels they could have played all Saturday without threatening the net.

Bruce went with the same lineup that lost at Arsenal last Sunday.  His confidence was not rewarded.  The pairing of Longstaff/Bentaleb hasn't been inspiring so far.  Lazaro had productive moments but a straight red late in the match means we won't be seeing him for three matches.  Is it possible that Bruce has undervalued the work of Hayden and Ritchie?  We definitely need to see something different this Saturday vs Burnley.

Things were not much better for Aston Villa at St. Mary's against Southampton.  The "less" adjectives would seem to apply there as well.  Michael and Simon were just as crestfallen with Tottenham's 1-2 loss at Chelsea.  The final is actually flattering to Spurs as their only goal came very late.  Without Kane and Son, they are struggling.  The only result that went the "right" way was Burnley's 3-0 thumping of Bournemouth.  Even there, we needed VAR to overturn two Bournemouth goals.  The day ended with a disappointing 1-0 win by Man City over Leicester; it wasn't the result so much as this just wasn't the lively contest we had expected.

Steve: And what an unintriguing contest this turned out to be
Dennis: I would be asleep if not for this texting

Sunday was better.  Man United and Wolves got 3-0 wins over relegation rivals Watford and Norwich.  VAR continued to be our friend as Watford had a goal that leveled the match at 1-1 overturned for "handling" and by handling I mean the new definition in which even an accidental touch is enough to rule out a goal.  In this case, the only way Craig Dawon could have avoided the touch was to have his arm amputated.  To appease Jeff H (and because it really was some great work by Martial), we'll make United's second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  United are now 5th and have the last Champions League spot.  Sunday wrapped up with an awesome (as we predicted!) contest between Arsenal and Everton. The Gunners ceded an early goal, then went up 2-1 but gave up another in first half stoppage time.  An early second half goal from Aubameyang was the game winner.  Great back and forth contest for the neutral.  After farting around for two-thirds of the season, Arsenal find themselves with a shot at Champions League.

On Monday, Liverpool decided to taunt me and Dennis with an up-and-down performance against West Ham, at Anfield no less.  The Reds were actually down 1-2 at 54 minutes before Salah and then Mane restored things to their natural order.  The 3-2 final meant that Villa could spent at least another week out of the bottom three.


Champions League First Legs Done

Chelsea hang tough for a while but were eventually buried by Bayern 0-3.  Real Madrid and Man City waged a classic at Bernabeu.  RM's press suffocated City in the first half.  Then, as City were finding some in-roads, RM pounced on a mistake to take a 1-0 lead.  But City got the momentum back and DeJesus leveled things at 78 minutes.  A 1-1 result would have been pretty good but Sterling got fouled in the box and DeBruyne calmly converted the PK.  RM's bad day was complete when Sergio Ramos took down Jesus (never a good thing to take down Jesus) and was red carded for DOGSO, meaning he misses the second leg.

Second legs are 3/10-11 and 3/17-18.  Three sides are heading home with a lead and look like good bets (Man City, Bayern, and Red Bull Leipzig).  Atalanta are on the road to Valencia but at 4-1 they look pretty good too.  Barcelona are 1-1 with Napoli but the second leg is at Camp Nou so you figure they are likely to advance.  The more intriguing stuff is the matches with the home team taking one goal deficits (Liverpool - Atleti, PSG - Dormund, and Juventus -Lyon) into the second leg.  The home sides are favored in all three but will they score enough to overcome the deficits? 



MLS Opens

Kind of snuck up on me.  I always thought they waited until daylight savings time but looking at prior years, that's not the case.  Action starts this Saturday, on Leap Day.  2020 is the 25th season for MLS, which now features 26 teams after adding Miami and Nashville.

For the Union, the biggest change is in the formation - a 4-4-2 diamond (see picture left).  Only one new name in the lineup; the steady but unathletic Haris Medunjanin is gone and Matej Oravec takes his place as defensive midfielder.  The replacement reflects Ernst Tanner's commitment to pressing football. The best news is Monteiro is back.  Last year, the Union got incredible production from Ilsinho off the bench.  He's back and his age (34) doesn't worry us since his game was never built on speed and fitness anyway.  We always liked Gaddis but was hoping for an upgrade this season.  Also, the team's success looks highly dependent on continued development from Aaronson and McKenzie. More expansive assessments of the Union's prospects can be had here and here.  Somewhere from 4th to 7th sounds right to me.  Never a great early season performer, we might expect some struggles early as they master a new formation.  But I think it is the right decision. Last year was great but they were unlikely to advance any further with that formation and personnel.

Spent a little time looking around for MLS projections and found information from 538, ESPN and MLS.  I took the seven MLS projections and averaged them to get an MLS consensus, then put that consensus with the 538 predictions and the ESPN power ranks.  The table is sorted based on that average.  Hopefully this is readable.

				MLS	Writers			MLS	MLS				Average
	Baer	Balboa	Carr	Davies	Doyle	Jack	Lord	Average	Consensus	538	ESPN	AVG	Rank
Atlanta	1	2	2	5	2	1	2	2.14	1	1	1	1.00	1
NYCFC	5	4	1	1	3	6	1	3.00	3	2	3	2.67	2t
Toronto	2	5	4	2	1	3	3	2.86	2	4	2	2.67	2t
Philadelphia	6	2	3	4	7	2	4	4.00	4	3	6	4.33	4
Columbus	4	1	8	7	4	5	6	5.00	5t	8	5	6.50	5t
New England	7	6	5	3	5	4	5	5.00	5t	9	4	6.50	5t
Red Bulls	9	8	7	10	10	10	8	8.86	8t	7	8	7.50	7
DC United	3	7	6	6	8	8	7	6.43	7	10	7	8.00	8
Inter Miami	8	11	9	11	6	7	10	8.86	8t	6	12	9.00	9
Chicago	13	12	11	13	12	13	11	12.14	13	5	11	9.67	10
Orlando	11	9	12	8	9	9	13	10.14	10	11	10	10.33	11
Montreal	12	13	10	9	13	11	9	11.00	11	12	9	10.67	12
Cincinnati	11	10	13	12	11	12	12	11.57	12	13	13	12.67	13

Starting with our parochial interest in the Union, everybody sees the Union as a play off team.  There is a "healthy" range though between 2nd and 7th.  The latter would be disappointing after last year; 3rd or 4th would probably be a pretty good season.  Though no one actually has Atlanta, NYCFC and Toronto - at least in that order - they do look like consensus top three for the conference.  Very curious as to why 538 has Chicago 5th while everyone else sees them at the bottom of the table.


Silverware!

The first of four trophies gets awarded on Sunday to the winner of the Carabao Cup.  Aston Villa will take on Manchester City at 11:30 at Wembley Stadium.  For TV coverage, you can fuggetaboutit.  You can however stream the match on ESPN+.  I believe Dennis would gladly trade any hardware in this competition for three points in EPL competition.  Maybe even one point. Maybe even losses from relegation rivals.

The rest of the EPL (except, Sheffield United and Arsenal - Villa's and City's would-be league opponents this weekend) have more mundane fixtures to deal with.  Except with Champions League spots (maybe two?) up for grabs and relegation still a threat for many teams, everything looks relevant in one way or another.

The weekend starts early with a 3 pm Friday match up between Norwich and Leicester.  Both sides have a raison d'etre but one is more existential than the other.  The Foxes are simply protecting their Champions League position but the Canaries are fighting for their EPL lives; at just 18 points, Norwich are seven short of safety.  Though we tend to get worried about any side below us getting any points, if you're worried about Norwich, you're in bad shape.
 
Even the seemingly uninteresting 7:30 Saturday match (NBCSN) featuring Brighton and Crystal Palace could be a lively affair.  So close to safety now, Palace may be inspired to close the deal but the Seagulls showed some heart last week at Sheffield.  Just three 10 am matches.  The NBCSN match is Bournemouth hosting Chelsea.  The stakes there are pretty clear; Chelsea have precious little margin over the chase pack of Champions League contenders while the wrong (right?) set of results could see Bournemouth in the relegation zone by Sunday brunch.  The NBC Gold contests are Newcastle - Burnley and West Ham - Southampton.  We have occasionally wondered whether the ease with which the fans turn on the Mapgies when things aren't going well means the friendly confines St. James' Park aren't so friendly.  On the other hand, only Liverpool have allowed fewer home goals than Newcastle, just 12 in 13 games.  538 has it has basically a toss-up and I would gladly take that.  West Ham are favored at home, a result that will not be good for me or Dennis.

The 12:30 Saturday feature match on NBC is on NBCSN this week.  They better not have dumped it for curling or some such sport.  US Olympic Marathon Trials?  Okay, we're cool with that.  Anyway, the match is Watford - Liverpool.  We are totally on board with the idea of Liverpool going undefeated.

Two more-than-decent matches on Sunday but unfortunately they are both at 9.  NBCSN will have Everton - Man United while Gold will carry Spurs - Wolves.  According to 538, all four have a non-zero chance of making Champions League so we're expecting some lively action in both.  Our fondness for Wolves will likely draw us to that one but the other could be a real cracker.

And as we noted above, MLS action gets underway this weekend.  The Union will be in action at Dallas at 6 pm on Saturday; locals can catch the match on PHL-17.

Not going to be much rest for the remainder of 2020.  MLS is back in action, the Euro Championships in the spring, US Olympic Trials in June, Olympics this summer and a presidential campaign in the fall.  Soccer, track & field and politics - my three favorite sports.