Stormy Weather

Literally and figuratively.  While England was battered on consecutive weekends by drenching storms,  Newcastle were hammered and Aston Villa sustained a gut wrenching loss.

All week we heard that Dennis was possibly going to force a postponement of the Villa Spurs contest. Sometimes a fan's gotta do what a fan's gotta do.  Had he been successful,  it would have put Dennis in the company of the legendary Crash Davis,  who was able to get his Durham Bulls a rainout when they desperately needed one.  In the end, only one match was postponed - Man City vs West Ham and they were able to make it up on Wednesday.

Unattainable Low Bar

We always go into the fixture versus Arsenal at The Emirates with minimal expectations.  This time all we asked for was no serious injuries and limited damage to the goal differential.  We got neither.  The first half was okay, a 0-0 draw in which Newcastle arguably had the better chances.  The second half went to hell in a handbasket.  Quick goals from Aubameyang and Pepe after the break ended any hope of a result.  Stoppage time goals from Ozil and Lacazette made the final 4-0.  So much for protecting the goal differential, as the Magpies gave up a healthy advantage over Southampton in one fell swoop.  To add injury to insult, in-form Ciaran Clark had to leave in the 83rd minute with an ankle injury.  I haven't seen a timeline for his return but looks like he's out for awhile.  Perfect.


Who Marks Engels (any political economists out there)?

The early match of Sunday, Bloody Sunday was more entertaining but ultimately unsatisfying as well.  Aston Villa got a jump on Spurs thanks to an own goal from Aldervirile Autowelder Toby.  But the lead didn't make it to halftime.  Toby got one back with a very striker-like spin and shoot move.  Bjorn Engels took down Steven Weinberg Bergwijn in the box in first half stoppage time and Son converted the PK for a 2-1 lead.  But Villa were still full of fight and got the equalizer from the aformentioned Engels on Villa's first header goal of the season.  With time running out a draw looked inevitable until Engels completed his busy day with a defensive lapse that sent Son in on goal alone.  The South Korean converted from a difficult angle to steal the win in stoppage time.  Sorry Dennis, but it is this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Sure it was set up by a mistake but Son's finish was by no means guaranteed.  Turns out he did it with a fractured arm.  Worse, he may be gone for the season.  Talk about pyrrhic victories.


Help Elsewhere

Newcastle and especially Aston Villa at least got helpful results in other fixtures.  Most useful may have been the 1-1 draw between Brighton - Watford meaning both teams dropped two points.  Sheffield United had to work at it but came away with a 2-1 win over Bournemouth.  Same for Liverpool; they took forever to dispose of Norwich 1-0.  And Man City did just enough to turn away West Ham with a 2-0 win in their make up game.

Spurs were the big winner in the Champions League chase (although the goal posts for that may be moving - see below).  Besides getting their three, Wolves and Leicester played to a 0-0 draw and Chelsea fell at home 0-2 to Man United.  The latter will not go down as one of VAR's better days.  Early on Harry Maguire did the leg in the groin thing that got Tottenham's Son a straight red card earlier this season. Video is here; Harry says he was just trying to keep Batshuayi from falling.  Right.  Chelsea had apparently leveled the match at 1-1 in the 55th minute but the goal was ruled out on a foul by Archipelago Asspitquilta Dave. Sure looked like Fred pushed Dave, who then collided with Brandon Williams.  Video is here.  Possible that Fred's action was a foul, which wouldn't have mattered because the goal was scored.  Rubbing salt into the wounds, Maguire scored later to make the score 2-0 and Chelsea did have another goal ruled out - correctly - for offside.  But to be fair, Chelsea missed enough other chances while Man United converted theirs so who's to say it's not a fair result.


Better Mark Saul

Not so great results for EPL sides in the first leg of their Champions League ties.  Liverpool got sloppy on a corner kick and Atletico's Saul Niguez made them pay with a 4th minute goal.  Though Liverpool looked dominant and did have the lion's share of possession, they managed nary a shot on target.  Hard to get a result that way.  Probably not a knockout blow being down 0-1 heading to Anfield but it reduces their margin for error in the second leg.

Spurs seemed overwhelmed by RB Leipzig for about 64 minutes and were down 0-1 at that point.  A couple of key changes - Lamela in for Dele and Ndombele in for Fernandes - totally changed the dynamic.  Spurs looked fully capable of leveling things but unfortunately couldn't find a goal.  Their position is certainly tenuous as they head to Germany for the second leg with RB Leipzig having an away goal in their pocket.


It's the Cover-Up (Exhibit MMMMCCVIII)

UEFA has banned Man City from Champions League competition for the next two years for breaking the financial fair play rules.  Details can be had here.  Note that part of the problem was that the club misled officials as to what they were doing and also didn't cooperate with UEFA officials:

“The Adjudicatory Chamber has also found that in breach of the regulations the club failed to cooperate in the investigation of this case by the CFCB.”

The working assumption is that if the ban holds (City has of course appealed) and City finishes in the top four, the last Champions League spot will go to the 5th place team.  Right now that would be Spurs but many are in close pursuit.  Note that the ban won't go into effect if the appeal is still pending when 2020-21 Champions League starts; in that case, City will be allowed to participate.


VAR Modifications

Two options for changing how VAR judges offside have been floated but the rule-making board doesn't seem to be all that interested right now.  One change would allow for a 10-20 centimeter (3.9-7.8") tolerance in determining offside.  The other, championed by Arsene Wenger, would basically require that all of the attacker's body be ahead of the next to last defender.

Pick your poison
I'd rather have on-field ref make final decision

While Wenger's approach would mean fewer offside calls, it would not eliminate the VAR controversy; it would just change which plays get reviewed.  I do like the first approach as it recognizes the limits of the technology reviewing the plays and allows for some margin of imprecision.

Speaking of VAR, Jeff H and I were discussing how this may be one thing where MLS is ahead of the EPL.  Recall that in MLS the final decision is still made by the on-field referee, with the VAR merely suggesting whether or not the play justifies review.  He knows what he thought he saw live and the review gives him a chance to see whether that's in fact what happened.  Yeah, he has to go over to the monitor but is it really that much added time compared to the EPL referee standing around with his finger in his ear waiting for someone else to overrule him?


Whoop De Doo For My Subaru

The Union now play in Subaru Park after completing a multi-year sponsorship deal with Subaru.  Details here. The coolest part?  One of the new lots will have 30 free spaces for those who drive a Subaru.  Hey Michael B, can we borrow your car?

Stuff Getting Real

Things get going right away Saturday morning with the 7:30 (NBCSN) contest between 4th place Chelsea and 5th place Tottenham.  The Blues are up one point on Spurs. Yeah, the fact that 5th place might be good enough to make CL this year takes a little of the luster away but you can't count on that happening.  Plus, there's a big chase pack close at hand so these points will be big.

The 10 am games are mostly about relegation.  Newcastle go to BFS favorite Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace.  Both teams haven't quite put the relegation threat behind them yet; a win for either would likely drop the chances to near zero.  At 538 they have the Eagles as solid favorites.  Aston Villa go to Saint Mary's to take on Southampton.  Here's the thing - Southampton are the worst home team in the EPL, with just 11 points in 13 matches.  But as the second worst road team, will Villa be able to come away with something?  Bournemouth will likely have their hands full with an in-form Burnley at Turf Moor.  All three of those are NBC Gold.  The TV game is Champions League hopeful hosting a Brighton side fighting hard not to slide into the relegation zone.

The NBC feature match looks solid with Leicester hosting Man City.  The Foxes had looked like a threat for second but have cooled a bit.  This would be a chance to cut the margin to a point; a loss leaves them seven back.

Sunday has a full plate with two 9 am matches both on TV.  CNBC will have Wolves - Norwich; those of us still fearing relegation will be pulling for Wolves but Champions League contenders will likely prefer the Canaries.  Same thing for the NBCSN game between Man United - Watford.  At 11:30 there's an interesting contest between Arsenal - Everton, two sides that have an outside chance at Champions League.  The Gunners have lost just once since Christmas.  In fact, only Liverpool have fewer losses than them.  Unfortunately, this unbeaten run is clogged with too many draws and not enough wins.  Everton are also hot.  Going by 538 predictions, this is the tightest match of the weekend.

Bonus Monday game is Liverpool vs West Ham.  Not likely that the Hammers pick up anything here, which is just fine with us Magpies and Villans.

Don't forget Champions League action mid-week.  Chelsea host Bayern on Tuesday and Man City travel to Real Madrid on Wednesday.  The latter looks to be a cracker, as they say in the trade.