Home and Dry

Things went pretty well for BFS sides this weekend.


Newcastle Safe for Another Year

Defense wins championships, or in this case avoids relegation.
Paul Dummett has been rock steady in the back

Another roller coaster ride of a season but the Magpies are guaranteed safety after a 3-1 defeat of Southampton combined with Cardiff City's loss to Liverpool.  Two standouts were Ayoze Perez with a hat trick and Paul Dummett with frequent defensive interventions.  Always liked Perez's work rate but his finishing has been inconsistent and he can be outmuscled.  He's got six goals in six games so the finishing is better but against Southampton he also seemed to be able to hold onto the ball under pressure.  We'll make his second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Frankly, I didn't think he could get to the ball much less put it on frame, especially with Southampton defender draped all over him.

Newcastle were totally dominant in the first half but not so much after the break.  Might be the first time I've seen Benitez outcoached.  The Magpies were under pressure most of the second half and were arguably lucky not to end up with a draw here.  Until Perez netted his third in the 86th minute, this felt like a match that was slipping away.  Metrics at 538 back up the impression that this was much closer than the score indicates.

A word on the yellow versus red for Ward-Prowse for his cynical foul on Almiron.  The laws list four factors for DOGSO:

distance between the offence and the goal
general direction of the play
likelihood of keeping or gaining control of the ball
location and number of defenders

Good on 2 and 3 but not on 1 and 4.  The offense occurred in the Newcastle half of the field, which is a long way from the goal.  There was also a Southampton defender in the center of the pitch, roughly even with Almiron at the time of the foul.  Benitez argued that there was also a second Newcastle attacker so the two on one should have warranted the red card.  But that's not so obvious a goal scoring opportunity.  Certainly felt like the Magpies were cheated but it was the right call.  Perez got the opening goal minutes later so it lost its power as a talking point.

Almiron went down with a hamstring injury and will miss the final three games of the season.  Fortunately those matches are just window dressing.  With the relegation threat decided, we will now turn to the drama surrounding Benitez's situation.  His contract expires on June 30th.  He's looking for more control over player transfers.  Whether Ashley will accede to that is unclear.  Also, several key players may not be returning, including Ritchie (old by Newcastle standards), Diame (same), Hayden (wants to be closer to home).  Should be a hectic June.


Status Quo

Neither Man City or Liverpool had an easy day of things but they still managed to get their three points. The City - Spurs rematch was a sequel almost worthy of the CL game earlier in the week.  Not quite as intense, some weary legs perhaps but still a good contest.  Tottenham will likely feel they could have nicked a point but lost 0-1.  Liverpool were never really in jeopardy but took their sweet time in putting Cardiff away.  Wijnaldum got the break through at 57 minutes and Milner's PK at 81 minutes sealed the deal.  The loss by the Blue Birds brought safety to four sides including Newcastle, Bournemouth, West Ham and Crystal Palace.


Easter Turkeys

Ooh boy, did the four teams competing for the last two Champions League spots put up some stinkers.  Teams in places three through six all dropped points.  Spurs, who had already dropped three points on Saturday against Man City, were looking like they would drop two more at home to Brighton until a well-placed shot from Eriksen in the 88th minute gave them a 1-0 victory.  That made them the only one of the four to get a win over this week and puts them in a commanding position for one of the spots.  Chelsea coughed up a lead to Burnley and could only manage a 2-2 draw.  Those dropped points could have been really costly except Arsenal and Man United lost twice.  Focusing on the Cardiff - Liverpool match, I didn't get to see the exciting derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  Arsenal's 2-3 loss to the Eagles was followed by a 1-3 loss to those giant slayers Wolverhampton.  That gives Wolves 16 points versus top six sides in EPL play plus two wins in FA Cup play.  Their chances for a 7th place finish are good.

Man United was gutted 0-4 by Everton on Sunday.  To be fair, there were some sweet goals from the Toffees so it's not all on the United players. Sorry Jeff H but here's a compendium of the goals - the semi bicycle kick from Richarlson was pretty cool but so were the lasers strikes from Sigurdsson and Digne.  Still, there was a lot of finger pointing and ranting afterwards.  I had that one as a draw but it was also one of the few places United could have picked up extra points to boost their flagging chances. No one was expecting much from them in Wednesday's Manchester derby and you'd have to say they delivered with an 0-2 loss to City.  De Gea has been shaky but United haven't scored from the run of play since April 2nd, a stretch of 527 minutes.  Technically all four are still in it but Tottenham clinch with just two wins and given their favorable goal differential could possibly make it with a win and a draw.  Chelsea hold a one point lead over Arsenal so arguably control their own fate but need to beat Man United to maintain that advantage.


Whose Left in the Relegation Fight?

Technically Southampton and Burnley aren't finished yet.  Southampton added a point with a mid week draw against Watford, while Burnley got an unexpected point with the Chelsea draw.  They both look safe.  No, the real contest is down to Brighton and Cardiff.  Brighton managed a heroic draw 0-0 versus Wolves and were two minutes away from duplicating the feat at the new White Hart Lane before Eriksen's goal snatched that away.  But it was one more than Cardiff got.  In one way the odds favor Brighton; both teams probably only get one more point so Brighton's three point lead is safe.  But you could argue that Cardiff has the betters chances for upsets - wins over Fulham and Crystal Palace don't sound outrageous.  Brighton might beat Newcastle but they finish with Arsenal and Man City.  Also, the Seagulls haven't scored in 646 minutes, making it difficult to get points other than through 0-0 draws.  Brighton's better goal differential (-22 vs -35) does give them the tiebreaker advantage.


Union Hammer Montreal

Three reasons for Union improvement?
Monteiro, Wagner and Aaronson (l-r)

The first sign that maybe things will be different this year.  They got on Montreal pretty quickly with Burke finally putting a shot on frame.  Monteiro added to the lead with a PK and Bedoya settled things with a another at 57 minutes - putting away a cross that Burke totally flubbed.  Monteiro and Aaronson were more than capable in the midfield so we didn't especially feel the loss of Fabian.  Aurelien Collin (an unnoticed off-season acquisition) was absolutely steady as a replacement for Trusty (serving a one game suspension).  Wagner finally put a foot wrong but it wasn't what you think.  He was solid again on defense but made an absolutely unnecessary challenge late that got him a well-deserved red card. Blake picked up a groin injury late and had to leave.  But overall a great day at Talen Energy.  Not every personnel move is working exactly has planned but the sum of the parts seems to be good enough.


Still Plenty to Play For

Helping out at Penn Relays this weekend so viewing may be limited.  Unfortunately, with the title challenge, Champions League spots and relegation still unsettled, there aren't too many meaningless matches.

The most obvious place to start is Man United versus Chelsea at 11:30 on Sunday.  Could be curtains for one or even both if the match ends in a draw.  At the top Liverpool have the easier task, hosting Huddersfield (Friday afternoon), than Man City who must travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley (Sunday at 9 am).  Spurs will need to be careful in the London derby with West Ham (7:30 Saturday) but so will Arsenal, who travel to Leicester (Sunday at 7 am).  And who decided we needed early matches on Saturday and Sunday?

Down lower, Cardiff get to face Fulham (10 am Saturday on NBCSN), their best chance at grabbing three points in the closing stages.  Except Fulham are on a two game win streak with two straight clean sheets.  Brighton host Newcastle (the 12:30 NBC match on Saturday), also the best chance for Brighton to get three points but will require they actually put the ball into the net.

Lost in the shuffle will be the battle for 7th in the table between Watford and Wolves (10 am Saturday but only on NBC Gold).  Both teams have done a fine job this season and play eminently watchable football.

Union are on the road to Vancouver.  They will be without Blake and Wagner and probably Fabian.  Not sure what Curtin does with Collin but he'll probably return Trusty to the starting line-up.  The Whitecaps have been less than impressive to date so this would be a great game to take a point on the road.

Don't forget Champions League semi-final first leg matches.  Tottenham Ajax on Tuesday and Barcelona Liverpool on Wednesday. Both are on TNT at 3 pm.

Almost There

An incredible month continues.  Factoring in the Champions and Europa Leagues, April will be fixtureless for Premier League sides only on 4/4, 4/19, and 4/25.


Only Really Scary Scenarios Remain

Newcastle were hardly dominant at King Power on Friday but still came away with a 1-0 road win over Leicester.  The only moment of quality from either side was the cross from Ritchie to Perez that yielded the game's only goal. Otherwise it was a contest of missed opportunities for both sides and especially careless passing by the Magpies.  But the three points are real and critical given some of the other results.  The scenarios that end with Newcastle getting relegated are increasingly few and decreasingly plausible.  I also enjoyed getting the result on the books on Friday afternoon, leaving the rest of the weekend to enjoyably take in the other matches as a neutral.


Holding Serve

Liverpool - Chelsea lived up to its billing.  The 2-0 final score overstates how evenly matched this seemed.  Liverpool goals came in a four minute flurry.  Mane's was good, but Salah's was even better.  Though passed over for the YouTubeableMoment, we still present the video here.  The loss leaves Chelsea at the mercy of other clubs; they could win out from here but will need upsets of Spurs or Arsenal to make up ground in the chase for Champions League spots.  For Liverpool, all the win does is keep pace with Man City.  They will likely run the table but without an upset of City, it will not be enough.

Form held at the top, though sometimes shakily.  Man City were steady but not awesome in a 3-1 win over Crystal Palace. Spurs were unpressed in the win over Huddersfield but the 4-0 final flatters them.  Man United failed to score during the run of play but prevailed over West Ham by 2-1 based on two PKs from Pogba; frankly one might not have survived VAR and the other came at 1-1 when the Hammers were looking the more dominant side.  But the shakiest of them all was Arsenal 1-0 over Watford. Here's the goal - a lackadaisical clearance (one pundit said he dithered over the ball) by Foster that Aubameyang blocked back into the goal.  Shortly thereafter, Deeney got himself sent off for a "blow" to the face.  Some will call it soft but the rules are different for contact to the face.  As opposed to "excessive force" the standard for contact by the arm to the face is "not negligible."  The Arsenal player made a meal of it but it sure looked like more than negligible.  Surprisingly, this did not help Arsenal's cause.  Tuning in without context, a viewer would have been surprised to hear that Watford were playing a man down, such was their command of the play.  But the 1-0 lead stood and Arsenal held serve, as it were.

Down at the other end, the relegation special between Burnley and Cardiff was intense if not quality football.  The 2-0 win is likely enough to ensure safety for the Clarets.  Southampton also bolstered their chances to stay up with a 3-1 win over Wolves, who may be losing steam as the season winds down.  Not so happy for Brighton as they were bombed 0-5 by Bournemouth.  Things only got worse when Cardiff took their measure on Tuesday.  In short, the Seagulls have been dragged back into the relegation battle.   The remaining fixtures for both are presented below:

Cardiff		Brighton
Liverpool		Wolves (A)
Fulham (A)		Tottenham (A)
Crystal Palace		Newcastle
Man United (A)		Arsenal (A)
		Man City

Brighton have a two point lead and a game in hand but nothing looks assured.  Maybe they get some points versus Wolves and Newcastle.  Cardiff's list ain't great either but Fulham and Crystal Palace offer potential results.


Sweet April-time - O Cruel April-time (Dinah Craik)

Champions League quarterfinals wrapped up on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Barcelona were too much for Man United.  Up 1-0 with an away goal, they put the issue to rest quickly.  Check out this goal from Messi, our choice for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  I admit that on video, the goal doesn't seem has impressive as I remember at the time but the combination of winning the ball, the touch to get past the defender, the next touch to set up the shot and the accuracy of the shot are all top shelf.  For United, things just went downhill from there.  My time would have been better spent watching the Cinderella team of the competition - Ajax - beat Juventus with a gutsy 2-1 road win to win 3-2 on aggregate.  As expected, Liverpool were not seriously threatened by Porto and took that quarterfinal with a 5-1 aggregate.

The ball probably did hit Llorente's arm but that doesn't
mean it was a handball

Guardiola realizes the quadruple is gone

But what to say about the fourth of the quarterfinals, the classic at the Etihad?  Recall that Spurs took a 1-0 lead over Man City into that second leg.  Sterling took less than four minutes to erase the lead.  But Son counted a bare three minutes later with an away goal to give Tottenham a big edge.  Another from Son at 10 minutes meant City was going to need a three more goals to advance.  Took them just one minute to get the first and another 10 minutes to get the second.  The third didn't come until 59 minutes but at that point they were up 4-3 on aggregate.  Spurs did not go quietly into the night.  Llorente got a messy looking goal off a corner at 73 minutes to tie the score, meaning Spurs would advance on away goals.  That score was not without controversy.  It probably did deflect off Llorente's arm but did not look like hand to ball to me or the referee (who did go to the video to check).  [Note that under rules set to go into effect on July 1, 2019, the goal would likely be disallowed as contact with the arm, accidental or not, on the way to a goal will be enough to see it waved off.] That set up a final 20+ minutes of all out attack from City.  As you might expect, they got the game winner in stoppage time after Eriksen's ill-advised back pass.  But the celebration was short lived.  Eriksen's ball had clipped off a Man City player on its way to a "standing in an offside position" Aguero.  VAR clearly showed the touch and there was no doubt as to the correct call.  The roller coaster ride was over.  And so are City's hopes of the rare "quadruple" - EPL, FA Cup, League Cup and Champions League.  Spurs move on to face Ajax in the semis while Liverpool and Barcelona will tangle on the other side of the bracket.


To Live and Die in LA (musical accompaniment Wang Chung)

Mostly the latter for the Union in their trip to face the Galaxy.  Can't think of anything that went right and those of us staying up to 12:30 to see the match through didn't have much to cheer about.  Fabian went off with an injury at 23 minutes.  Ibrahimovic got the opener at 27 minutes.  I eventually satisfied myself that he probably didn't foul Trusty in the process but it was close.  Did Wagner foul the Swede in the box at 36 minutes?  Not so sure about that one.  We saw it plenty of times as the VAR process played out and I'm still puzzled how it stood up to review.  But Zlatan put the PK away for a 2-0 lead.  Not that Union looked in any danger of mounting a comeback but that was put to rest for good when Trusty got his second yellow at 76 minutes.  Shots were even at 11 but Union had just two on target compared to five for LA.  Just an incredibly flat performance.


Ya Done Good Mike

We do tend to beat up on Mike Dean a bit here so it's only fair we point out the positives too.  In the Burnley - Cardiff City match Claret defender Ben "F" Mee had the ball come off his arm twice in a matter of seconds.  I think it was on the advice of the AR that Dean signaled for a PK. But then he went for a consultation and waved the penalty off.  On the replays, which were not available to Dean, it looked like one was a close range shot that Mee had no chance to avoid and the other came off his head.  In short, Mr. Dean got this right and without the aid of VAR. Well done.


More April Soccer

Still 11 days left and 10 have matches.

No sleeping late this Saturday as the weekend gets off to a quick start with Man City hosting Tottenham.  Right, just three days after their epic clash in Manchester they meet again in Manchester.  Weird but there it is.  My forecasts say Spurs can afford to lose this one and still make Champions League but City can't afford to drop any points here if they want to finish ahead of Liverpool.  Will it be like a hangover?  Is the hair of the dog the best remedy?

The 10 am matches offer little except maybe to the relegation aficionados.  That would be the Wolves-Brighton match on NBCSN.  Brighton are significant under dogs here but other than their fixture against Newcastle, have precious few realistic chances to grab points; even a draw would be big and frankly Wolves have been subpar of late.

NBC's featured match at 12:30 will have my full attention as Newcastle host Southampton.  A Newcastle win combined with Cardiff draw or loss on Sunday would clinch Michael B's steak dinner.  But the Saints will be hungry too as any points here will move them closer to safety.

All three of Sunday's matches are important in one way or another.  Man United take on Everton (8:30 on NBCSN) needing all three points to keep their fading hopes of a CL spot alive.  A London derby featuring Arsenal and Crystal Palace at 11 is relegated to NBC Gold.  The Gunners are in command of their fate; this should be a safe three for them and they can't afford to let them slip away.  The 11 am TV match is Liverpool at Cardiff.  Unless Man City create an opening by losing to Spurs on Saturday, this is a must win for Liverpool.  Actually, if you want to be EPL champions, you have to beat Cardiff.  Chelsea host Burnley on Monday at 3 pm (NBCSN) to close out this match week.

How much would you pay for EPL action like that?  But wait, there's more.  Two on Tuesday and two on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, NBCSN has Tottenham-Brighton at 2:45 while NBC Gold will present Watford - Southampton.   Wednesday features Wolves - Arsenal at 2:45 (NBC Gold) and the Manchester derby from Old Trafford at 3 (NBCSN).  All four will have EPL title, Champions League, or relegation ramifications.

Somehow, we have to fit in Union-Montreal, which has been inconveniently scheduled for 1 pm on Saturday, in competition with the Newcastle match.  Good thing someone invented DVR.  Montreal are one point above the Union in the table.  This is a match that tells us what kind of season we may be facing - a high place in the table with an easy road to the playoffs or a season-long struggle.  Would be nice to break with tradition and go with the former.

Don't Put the Bernaise Sauce on That Steak Just Yet

In a long-standing tradition dating back to May 2018, I buy Michael B a steak dinner once Newcastle are mathematically safe from relegation.  He's been talking about how he can taste that steak now but I'm counseling him to keep his taste buds in check.  With their recent form, including the frustrating loss to Crystal Palace, Newcastle have not put the issue to bed.  In fact, they have gone from a negligible chance to a 1% chance of relegation according to 538.  Okay, not time for panic but we're not done here.

Milivojevic sends Dubravka the wrong way on PK

As for that frustrating loss, we rarely see Newcastle statistically dominant but they outpossessed Crystal Palace 54-46 and outshot them 18 (5 on target) to 3 (just 1 on target).  Unfortunately, they were outgoaled 1-0 on the strength of a Milivojevic PK in the 81st minute.  The call was deserved as Yedlin was just plain careless in the box. The reminders just keep piling up that Newcastle simply need more finishing quality.  Hopefully the lesson was not lost on owner Michael Ashley.

Newcastle's situation wasn't helped by the season ending injury to Florian LeJeune as he damaged his other ACL.  Fortunately, there is some depth there but LeJeune was definitely a first choice.  Also, there is continued (endless?) speculation about Rafa's contract, Rondon's future with the club, and persistent rumors about whether Ashley will sell.  Perfect backdrop to the relegation struggle. 


Toffees Gumming Up the Works

Everton, who just two weeks ago dealt a serious blow to Chelsea's top four hopes, put a crimp in Arsenal's Champions League plans with a stubborn 1-0 win over the Gunners.  Arsenal had been looking good enough for a third place finish but now look to be neck and neck with Chelsea for the 4th spot.  Chelsea got their three points this weekend on the back of Eden Hazard, who put in two in the 2-0 win over West Ham.  Liverpool struggled early at Southampton and didn't take the lead until the 80th minute on this incredible counterattacking goal from Salah. Jordan Henderson added another minutes later making the final 3-1 but it was much closer than that.  At the other end of the table, Burnley were dismantling Bournemouth 3-1 for their second straight win.  The Clarets jumped to 14th with their second straight win; two weeks ago they looked mired in the relegation battle but now are almost home.


Watchable FA Cup Semi Finals

The killer bee was at it again

Man City kept their quadruple hopes alive with a narrow 1-0 win over Brighton.  BFS favorites Wolverhampton couldn't hold a 2-0 lead and ended up losing in distressing fashion 2-3 in extra time to Watford.  At 79 minutes Gerald Deulofeu (left), who surprisingly was left out of the starting line up, cut the lead in half with a brilliantly placed shot.  Seconds from advancing to the final, Wolves surrendered a PK in the 94th minute that Troy Deeney absolutely buried to level things.  Deulofeu then added the game winner in extra time to send the Hornets into the final.



Champions League

A mixed bag for the Premier League.  Liverpool handled Porto well and take a 2-0 lead to the second leg in Portugal.  Spurs got a late goal from Son to take a 1-0 lead to the Etihad next week.  A quick rant here about players doubling as referees.  As you check out Son's goal here, notice how many City players raise their hands to indicate they thought - incorrectly we might add - that the ball was out, having gone past the goal line.  I count at least three, including Fabian Delph, who would have been much better off letting the refs do their job and focusing on keeping Son from getting a shot off.  No sympathy for the players who do that, love to see them get burned. Okay where was I?  Was hoping for more out of the Man United - Barcelona match up.  The Red Devils managed no shots on target and the only score was an own goal off Luke Shaw.  In the last quarter-final, Ajax and Juventus played to a 1-1 draw.  Second legs for those ties are next Tuesday and Wednesday.  All are still competitive, at least in theory, though Liverpool, Barcelona and Juventus may be in the drivers seats.


Union Comeback

The scene at Chester-on-Delaware was distressingly like the action at Newcastle-on-Tyne from earlier in the day.  The Union were all over Dallas, except that for all the possession and shots in the final third we weren't all that threatening.  Dallas carried the lead late into the match thanks to a first half free kick goal.  Then Curtin changed things around and every move worked.  We were giving away three inches and 30 pounds at every position so he switched out Picault for Burke.  We needed some dribble penetration so he switched out Accam for Ilsinho.  And we needed more offense so he switched out Gaddis for Monteiro and played with just three defenders.  Monteiro took the shot that was parried as high as the Commodore Barry Bridge.  Burke was tackled by two Dallas defenders to keep him from getting that rebound, resulting in a PK; Burke was also there to put away the rebound when Fabian was stymied on the PK attempt.  And Ilsinho did nice work to get the ball to Bedoya, who then did some nifty work of his own to get the game winner in extra time.  We offer two views of this week's YouTubeableMoment, here and a fan's eye view here.  Great fun to have that unfold right in front of us.


Schedule

Match of week "Top of Table Division" - Liverpool vs Chelsea (11:30 Sunday on NBCSN)
Match of the week "Relegation Division" - Burnley vs Cardiff City (10 am Saturday on NBCSN)

In the former match, neither has any room to give.  Chelsea have to pick up points in unexpected places if they hope to get to 4th; with Man City likely favored in all their closing matches, Liverpool can't drop any points either.  For the latter, Burnley have pulled their asses out of the depths and a win over Cardiff would all but mathematically give them another year in the top flight.

Newcastle have to travel to Leicester so we're not really expecting anything from that match.  They have a special Friday match (3 pm NBCSN) so we can get the misery out of the way early. We'll watch it so you don't have to.

Other fixtures at the top end include Man City traveling to Crystal Palace, Tottenham vs Huddersfield (we'll have to pull Michael B off the ledge if that's anything less than three points), Arsenal on the road to Watford and Man United hosting West Ham.  Frankly, it looks like status quo at the top, with the exception of the Liverpool Chelsea contest.

Don't forget midweek Champions League action.  Also, there's a relegation special on Tuesday at 2:45 with Brighton hosting Cardiff City on NBCSN.  With the right (or wrong depending on your perspective) set of results, Cardiff could actually pass Brighton and put the Seagulls into the last relegation spot.  On the other hand, Brighton might be able to just about put Cardiff out of their misery.

Union fans get a late night with a 10:30 pm West Coast match as they take on the LA Galaxy.  The four game unbeaten streak might not survive this one.  The good news is that currently Philly are 4th in the conference with 10 points, twice as many as they had after six matches last year.

Somehow have to fit Masters viewing into this too.  That burning smell is my dvr.

Moral Victories Are Usually Worth Zero Points

Several examples of that this weekend.  On the other hand, there was no such qualifier on the Union's win over FC Cincinnati; that was a just plain old victory.


Little Shop of Horrors

The trip to London to play Arsenal ended as it usually does for Newcastle.  While they weren't awful in the 0-2 loss, you do feel they could have played for another three days and the Magpies still wouldn't have scored.  The positives are that they didn't park the bus and at least had some ventures forward and, despite the final score, the defense was not terrible.  The first goal was actually a double ricochet off Lascelles then Yedlin that ended up on Ramsey's foot; he did not miss.  The second was a either a brain cramp by Lascelles or miscommunication between him and Dubravka.

This article forwarded to me by off again-on again Everton fan Jeff K gets to the heart of the Newcastle problem.  We are definitely a better team than last year (though the final table standing may not reflect it) but they still need scoring power and it does not come cheap(ly?).  We anxiously await the resolution of Benitez's contract situation because that will probably answer whether Ashley is going to spend that kind of money.

Since we had no expectations of a result in London, the outcome doesn't change the relegation situation.  Some combination of points against Crystal Palace, Southampton and Fulham would certainly do it; there are also numerous scenarios where the Magpies point total of 35 might already be enough.


Immoral Losses 

When I was going through matches to recommend to Dennis, I kept coming up short.  Just not a great weekend of viewing.  Sunday had the best, and to certain fans (looking at you Michael B), cruelest contests.

Yeah, just a bit offside

Cardiff City were giving Chelsea fits in Wales.  They were up 1-0 late until they ceded a goal by Aztecpueta AspenColorado Dave (first explanation here,  more info here - see there's a British sit com in which everybody calls this guy Dave even though his real name is Rodney).  Wait, where was I?  Right. Dave's goal.  Replays show that Dave was actually offside, and not by just a little bit.

Sir, excuse me sir, I can't see the play

The explanation as to why it was missed is awesome - Willian's afro.  I am not making this up.  Willian added insult to injury by nicking the game winner in stoppage time.  Cardiff went from a potentially lifesaving three points to a single but helpful point to a goose egg in 7 minutes.  That Rudiger was only shown yellow for a potential DOGSO situation (I didn't think it was nor do I think VAR would have overturned it) compounded Neil Warnock's displeasure.  As of Thursday, I hadn't seen that he had been fined for any statements but I see he's just made some unkind remarks about the head of referees Mike Riley so he could still lose some pocket change.

Perhaps even crueler was Spurs 1-2 loss to Liverpool at Anfield.  The Reds had an early lead but a 70th minute goal from Lucas Moura leveled things.  Looking very much like they would snatch a much needed point, Spurs then surrendered an own goal in the 90th minute.  Alderweireld appears on the scoresheet but the blunder actually belongs to Lloris, who parried the shot off his teammate and into the goal.  On paper, both Chelsea and Liverpool had been expected to take all the points, so some talked about moral victories for Cardiff City and Tottenham.  Maybe, but they came with no points.  For Spurs, this was a four point turnaround as Chelsea flirted with dropping three points while they were grabbing one.

Though not necessarily exciting, at least to the neutrals, Burnley's win over Wolves and Southampton taking the measure of Brighton were certainly consequential in the relegation struggle.  Combined with Cardiff's loss, those wins gave Burnley and Southampton a five-point cushion between them and the relegation zone.  And Brighton missed chance to pretty much guarantee their safety.

City got an unimpressive win over Fulham to match Liverpool so the race for the top spot continues.  Man United temporarily stopped the bleeding with a 2-1 win over Watford only to see the tourniquet taken off with 1-2 loss to Wolves.  Ashley Young's rash challenge, minutes after he had already been carded, saw him sent off in the 57th minute with the score level at 1-1.  Special note there in that the red card was the 100th of Mike Dean's career; he is the first in PL history to hit that mark, which means of course, he's held the record for some time now.  Again, where was I?  Right, Wolves up a man.  They actually seemed to be less threatening after the sending off before Chris Smalling did the work for them with an own goal at 77 minutes.  The damage to United's top four chances cannot be overstated.  They now need to come up with wins against Man City and Chelsea and hope that others stumble against lesser opponents.

Crystal Palace put an end to Huddersfield's stay in the top division with a 2-0 win on Saturday.  Watford did the same for Fulham with a 4-1 defeat of the Cottagers on Monday.  The non-result against Chelsea put Cardiff into a big hole that got bigger with the loss to Man City on Wednesday.


The New White Hart Lane

After multiple (interminable?) delays, Tottenham finally played in their new venue, unceremoniously dubbed Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.  The match was quite disjointed but Spurs fans will clearly be happy about the 2-0 win over Crystal Palace.  Certainly the stadium and the pitch looked great, though we did hear complaints about too much garlic on the butternut squash in the press club.  The win by no means puts Tottenham in the clear for a top four finish but does mean they are still in charge of their own fate.  Wins over Brighton, Huddersfield, West Ham, Bournemouth and Everton would make it tough for Chelsea or Man United to catch them.


What Would Freud Say?

Apparently other teams are coveting Newcastle's young midfielder Sean Longstaff.


First Ever Win for Union over FC Cincinnati

Of course, it was also the first time they ever played the expansion franchise.  Another assist and another goal for Accam.  We'll make his assist this week's YouTubeableMoment. Great composure in the box from Accam and a nice put away by Fabian; bonus points for the goal celebration, a nod to the Sixers.  The Union were not tested that much, and Blake came up big the one time he had to.  I know there is debate about how good Blake is as complete keeper but he is a good shot stopper.  In the past, that ability has only served to keep the margin of loss down; hopefully now it means protecting leads.  The Union looked better on the stat sheet too -  more possession (56-44) and shots (16-5); though it would be nice if we could get more on target (Picault and Burke are the primary culprits there - though Picault's work rate is still solid.  High marks for Fabian, Aaronson, and Wagner (again!).  Monteiro looked decent in his debut.  Bad news was Accam left with what looked like an injury - haven't found any update.  If he is back to anything resembling his form at Chicago, we could be set for some good times. 


Schedule

The FA Cup semis dominate and abbreviate this weekend's schedule.  Man City host Brighton on Saturday at 12:30 while Wolves go to Watford for an 11 am Sunday match.  That latter contest looks like a "Best of the Rest" match up; which team is the best of the non top six?  So far I find no evidence of live TV coverage in US for this.  I think that means your only hope is ESPN+

The EPL offers up a special Friday afternoon match between Liverpool and Southampton.  The Reds simply cannot afford to drop any points during the run in if they hope to catch Man City.  Unlikely that this match will do anything to improve Southampton's relegation situation.

There are three 10 am matches on Saturday.  We'll be focused on Newcastle-Crystal Palace, which will be on NBCSN.  A win for either side should take care of the relegation threat; even a draw would be a good result.  At 538 Newcastle are a slight favorite but this does have all the markings of a draw.  The other two matches are Bournemouth - Burnley and Huddersfield - Leicester, which I suspect will be of interest only to fans of those sides.

Everton - Arsenal is the only Sunday match - 9 am on NBCSN.  This is of way more importance to Arsenal, who have a legitimate shot at third place given their schedule.  Monday's 3 pm match with Chelsea hosting West Ham completes the shortened fixture list.  The Blues need all three points to keep their hopes of a top four finish alive.

I'll be at Talen Energy on Saturday night to see them take on FC Dallas.  That's a good club so I'm surprised to see the Union as a solid favorite according to 538.  Curtin has some personnel decisions to make as he'll have all the key players at his disposal.  I would expect to see Accam (if healthy) over Burke, Aaronson over Monteiro and Elliott over McKenzie.

Somehow you'll have to survive three straight days without EPL action Tuesday-Thursday.  At least on Thursday you can watch the Masters.

Update per Michael B - Champions League matches on 4/9 are Tottenham vs Man City and Liverpool vs Porto.  Matches on 4/10 are Ajax vs Juventus and Man United vs Barcelona.  Arsenal (vs Napoli) and Chelsea (vs Slavia Praha) play on Thursday so that's three more days in April on which EPL teams are in action.

Oh, To Be In England Now That April's There

Who knew Robert Browning was a football fan.

Looking at the calendar, there are only nine days in April without a Premier League fixture.  We can thank the FA Cup schedule for supplying us with mid-week contests throughout the month.  Welcome to the run in.

We start with 15 matches in five days beginning on Saturday.  Not saying all are tantalizing but there are some good ones.  Biggest is Liverpool-Tottenham Sunday at 11:30 on NBCSN.  Liverpool can ill afford to drop any points between now and the finish if they want to battle Man City for the title.  But Spurs, who gave up a relatively cushy ride to a top four finish with some recent poor outings, will be looking to get back on track.  Btw, note the start time, which means England gets to DST on Sunday at 1 am.

"Little Shop of Horrors" for Newcastle?

Newcastle have one of their least productive fixtures on Monday at 3:00 (NBCSN) as they travel to London to face Arsenal.  Do they ever get a result here?  To the record book.  Since the inception of the EPL, Newcastle have gone 4-2-17 in this fixture.  And most of the results are on the front end.  The Magpies last got a win at Arsenal on 11/7/10.  They got a draw on 11/18/06.  So we go in with low expectations.

One match to look in on is Brighton-Southampton.  One might think this would be labeled a South Coast Derby except that neither club seems to think of it as such.  Probably just not enough history.  Anyway, both are uncomfortably close to the drop zone and will be looking for points.  Could be some relegation flop sweat there.  That's at 11 am on Saturday on CNBC.  Other relegation candidates have some tough sledding.  Burnley must face Wolves (11 am Saturday on NBC Gold) and Cardiff City have to take on Chelsea (9:05 Sunday on NBCSN).  Crystal Palace have a golden opportunity to take themselves out of the mix with a home match against Huddersfield (11 am Saturday on NBC Gold).  Man City will likely make hash of Fulham in Saturday's early match.  Man United and their new permanent manager Ole Gunnar might have their hands full with Watford, even at Old Trafford (12:30 Saturday on NBCSN - not NBC).

For the mid-week matches, TV schedulers have sorted this out for us.  On Tuesday we can watch Wolves - Man United, a rematch of the recent FA Cup contest.  At 538, they give a slight edge to United but it has all the markings of a draw, which would be another blow to United's top four chances.  Wednesday we go with a London derby between Tottenham and Crystal Palace; Spurs should be solid here.  Both matches are on NBCSN at 2:45.  Relegation candidates Cardiff get no break and must take on Man City at the Etihad; 538 gives Cardiff a 1% likelihood of winning (so you're saying there's still a chance).  Brighton probably doesn't get a result at Stamford Bridge either so their relegation fears won't be diminished.


Goodbye, Columbus (apologies to Philip Roth and to The Association)

Accam after the storm?

So the Union went into Saturday's match against the Columbus Crew minus their starting keeper, playmaker, striker and midfielder and came away with a 3-0 win.  Yes, Columbus were missing some players too but at least they fielded a full squad of 18 players.  Much of the credit goes to David Accam, who had  two goals and an assist.  His dad had passed away during the week in Ghana but he chose to play ("this was the only thing that gives me joy").  For any number of reasons then, we can make his first goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  A big shout out to Haris Medunjanin for improved defensive work plus the key passes that set up Accam's goals (though he didn't get an assist for either).  A clean sheet points to a better defensive performance all around as well.

A reminder about why we shouldn't get so negative this early in the season - with the win, the Union are just three points out of first.  They are also just three points out of last.  Interesting match up this Saturday at 7:30 as the Union travel to Ohio for their first contest with the latest MLS expansion franchise, FC Cincinnati.  Make that 2nd place FC Cincinnati, coming off a draw, then two straight wins.  Probably a slight underdog, the Union should have a chance to come away with a point.  What lineup does Jim Curtin field for this one? Fabian is available, Burke is back.  Accam played well last time out, Aaronson played really well in his first match, okay in his second.  IMHO, Curtin should find a way to put Accam in the lineup.  We need to know if he's going to be the player he was at Chicago; if yes, we could be in for a good ride.


In 538 We Trust?

I pooh-poohed (sp?) the 538 forecast that had the Union as a clear favorite vs Columbus (51% chance of win, 26% chance of draw).  Hmmm.  What else do they say?

- EPL top four (in order of finish) will be Man City, Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal
- Cardiff, Fulham and Huddersfield will be relegated
- Newcastle will finish 14th
- The Union finish 8th in the MLS East (out of the playoffs)
- The new-look Phillies win 84 games and just miss the playoffs

From their lips to god's ear...

Even with all the viewing, don't forget to get outside and enjoy the good weather - that's why somebody invented dvr.

Preparing For the Run In

Two unexpected but deserved road draws for the BFS favorite sons plus a raft of late goals to make most of the weekend's action plenty interesting.


Surviving Mike Dean

Always nervous with Mike Dean in the center; he's never afraid to make an impactful call.  Which he did in Newcastle's match with Bournemouth.  With the Magpies up 1-0, thanks to a Rondon free kick in first half stoppage time, Dean nailed Fernandez for a foul in the box.  Many will argue that Fernandez's offense, arms on an attacker in the box on a free kick, happens on every free kick and this was just Dean's way of making his mark on the game.  Fankly I don't really have a problem with his call; don't drape your arms around or on top of an attacker in the box.  You're just giving the ref an excuse to make the call.  In Mike Dean's case, he always obliges.  I am a little miffed that, given Dean's reputation, we didn't get a call in the first half when Yedlin was wiped out in the box.

Close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. No goal.

Overall, Newcastle played pretty well and I was mildly disappointed as I resigned myself to the likely 1-2 loss after Josh King put the Cherries on top with a goal in the 81st minute.  It seemed only fair when Matt Ritchie stole a point back with a beautiful volley in the 94th minute.  As we will discuss below, last minute heroics were not in short supply this weekend but Ritchie gets this week's
 YouTubeableMoment.  Also must note that Paul Dummett put in another solid shift and saved the Magpies bacon with a critical clearance off the goal line to keep the match within reach.  Thrilled with the extra point and feeling just a little safer.


Better Late Than Never

A truly incredible spate of last minute or stoppage time goals this weekend.  Besides Newcastle, I count six other matches with late game heroics. Watford got a goal from Andre Gray in the 79th minute to move past Crystal Palace into the FA Cup semi-finals.  Down 1-3, West Ham scored at 75, 84 and 91 (the last two from Chicharito) to stun Huddersfield 4-3.  Leicester, down a man for most of the match, saw Wes Morgan get the game winner in the 90th minute to snatch a 2-1 win from Burnley.

Back in the FA Cup, Man City struggled to take the measure of Swansea City.  Down 0-2 through 68 minutes, Man City got three straight goals, the last at 88 minutes from Aguero, to secure their place in the semis.  I haven't seen the plays but articles suggest that the penalty call that led to the second goal might have been incorrect and that Aguero may have been offside on the game winner.  Some may note that VAR has been in place for some of the FA Cup.  That wasn't the case here as VAR is used only in FA Cup matches held in Premier League venues.

The trend continued on Sunday, as Liverpool needed a converted PK from James Milner in the 81st minute to vanquish Fulham 2-1; giving up two points to the 19th place Cottagers would have seriously dented Liverpool's title chances.   But the comeback of all was Brighton's FA Cup quarterfinal win over Millwall that went all the way to kicks from the spot.  The match was 0-0 through 69 minutes.  Two tallies from Millwall at 70 and 79 minutes appeared to have sealed a semi-final berth.  But Brighton rallied at 87 minutes and again in the 95th minute to send the match into extra time.  No scoring in extra time so it went to kicks from the spot, in which the Seagulls prevailed 5-4.  Condensed video is here.  Unfortunately the context is lacking but you see the two goals from Millwall, followed by the two goals from Brighton, and finish with the missed kick by Millwall that sends Brighton on.

The other two matches of note for the weekend didn't have the same drama, saving for the fact that both could be considered upsets.  In an FA Cup quarterfinal, Wolves added to their giant killer resume with a 2-1 win over Man United.  Despite less possession, Wolves had more shots on target (7 to 2) and seemed the likelier side to break open the 0-0 match.  Rashford's goal in the 95th minute, though in sync with the weekend's trend of late scoring, can't be considered late match heroics and only made the match seem closer than it was.   No late drama for Chelsea either as they fell 0-2 at Everton, severely compromising their chances of a top four finish.

BTW, the FA Cup semi-finals will feature Man City -Brighton on 4/6 and Watford vs Wolves on 4/7.  That second one could be a cracker as they say.

Ya done good kid. (Photo:Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports)

Better Results By Keeping 11 on the Field

Recall that the Union's trip last year to Atlanta saw the squad reduced to nine men after red cards to Medunjanin and Bedoya in the 19th minute; we lost that one 1-3.  This year we kept 11 on the pitch the whole time and came away with a 1-1 draw.  A deserved draw we might add.  Yeah, Atlanta had more possession but shots were about even, as were good chances.  With Fabian serving a suspension, Brenden Aaronson (right) made his debut for the Union.  How'd that work out?  Well, aside from a solid work rate and creating some chances, he also got the first Union goal of the season from the run of play.  Yeah, it was slightly deflected but still.  Nice to see somebody put a shot on target.  Wagner had another good outing and looks to be the best of Tanner's off season moves.  We kept the defensive lapses to a minimum but couldn't keep out the tying goal from Barco.  Not sure if it was Medunjanin, Bedoya, Trusty or some combination of the all of the above that left Barco so wide open in the box.

Atlanta, at least right now, doesn't look like a squad that's going to breeze through the competition like last year.  But we'll take the point on the road.


This Week in Vocabulary

snood (plural snoods)

Liverpool manager sporting one of his snoods

1. A band or ribbon for keeping the hair in place, including the hair-band formerly worn in Scotland and northern England by young unmarried women.
2. A small hairnet or cap worn by women to keep their hair in place. quotations ▼
3. The flap of red skin on the beak of a male turkey. quotations ▼
4. A short line of horsehair, gut, monofilament, etc., by which a fishhook is attached to a longer (and usually heavier) line; a snell.
5. A piece of clothing to keep the neck warm; neckwarmer

For our purposes, we are interested in the last meaning, as in "Jurgen Klopp is often seen patrolling the sidelines in a snood when the weather is bad."  The word is often found in crossword puzzles so it might come in handy some day.


Europe and Friendlies

EPL is off this week for the international break.  You can catch qualifiers for the 2020 European Championships on the various ESPN networks.  I watched England dispatch the Czech Republic 5-0 on Friday.  We'll discuss the European Championship qualifying in more detail in a later post.

The Union do play Columbus Saturday at 7:30 at Talen Energy but will do so without several players including Fabian (second of two-game suspension), Blake, Burke, and Creavalle (international duty).  Somehow, 538 has us favored but I don't see it; I'd be happy with a draw.

Michael B and I have unilaterally decided that the EPL run in begins with next weekend's matches.

Three Amigos Tyneside

Newcastle get an improbable comeback win over Everton as the bottom of the table has a good weekend.


A Tale of Two Halves

Almiron, Perez and Rondon

Through 64 minutes all I could do was grouse about Newcastle being down 0-2 while watching teams below them beating better sides.  Then, an entirely different team took the pitch.  The comeback started with some incredible link-up play that ended with Rondon's volley into the net.  Clearly this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Don't miss Hayden's long pass to Rondon.  Next was Perez putting away the rebound of Almiron's blistered shot that Pickford could only parry.  And lastly came Perez with the game winner off a Hayden pass that first went to Rondon.  We'll ignore for the moment that Rondon was clearly offside. Though not as obvious as the contributions of the Three Amigos (Rondon, Perez, and Almiron), Hayden, Shelvey and Dummett were also key; the latter two were subs that suggest Benitez got things right again.

A huge win as the Magpies were staring at 16th place, just three points above the drop zone.  Sitting 13th with a six-point cushion doesn't sound all that much better but with so many teams below them, the chances of relegation are dramatically reduced.  In fact, 538 is listing them with a less than one percent chance now.


Relegation Rivals Do Well

Cardiff, Southampton, and Brighton also picked up wins - some more improbable than others - that made the Magpie comeback all the more important.  Cardiff took the measure of West Ham at home; that was probably two (or three?) unexpected points. Brighton got all three at Selhurst Park; a little surprising.  Then there was the stunner from the coast, where Southampton came from 0-1 to beat Tottenham 2-1; the win kept the Saints out of the bottom three while dropping Spurs squarely into race for the last two Champions League spots. On other weeks, the free kick from Ward-Prowse might have been the YouTubeableMoment; you can see it from the fans' perspective here (sorry Michael B).

Man City and Liverpool got their expected wins.  We advised here last week, don't take Wolves lightly; only a stoppage time goal rescued a 1-1 draw for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.  And Arsenal looked very much in control as Man United finally lost under Ole Gunnar.  Spurs are still clearly in the race for a CL spot but can't be happy that their once secure position is under siege.  Don't want to count Man United out but the loss to Arsenal puts them at a big disadvantage.  538 says Spurs and Arsenal (on goal differential over Chelsea).  BFS says Arsenal and Spurs (on goal differential over Chelsea.  A great title race and a great CL race.


A Word About Selhurst Park

You all know the reverence we here at BFS hold for St. James' Park.  But where the Toon Army can be negative, the fans at Selhurst Park know only one way - singing and chanting regardless of the score.  On Saturday the Eagles, with their fans already in full-throat, were dominating play against Brighton.  Then a smash-and-grab goal from the Seagulls put them down 0-1.  A goal like that would have sent shivers down the collective spine of the St. James' Park crowd; instead, the Palace faithful increased their volume. Though the Eagles leveled things early in the second half, Brighton got a late goal to take all three points.  But the crowd's enthusiasm never diminished.  The "Five Guys from the USA" saw this on our trip; that day the Eagles fell to Chelsea 0-1 but the noise never stopped.  Simply an awesome venue.


WWVD (What Would VAR Do)? 

Ball is on Hayden's (far left) foot; Rondon (far right) will
 play it. Yeah, he's offside.

T'would have been a busy weekend for VAR, if the EPL was using it.  A quick summary based just on personal viewing.
1) Would Pickford have been sent off for DOGSO against Newcastle?  Probably not because of presence of defender but he might have picked up a yellow for a tactical foul.
2) Would the Newcastle winner have been reversed for offside?  Almost certainly yes (see picture).
3) Should the AR's initial call of offside that was overruled by Paul Tierney stood?  Almost certainly yes.
4)Should Burnley opening goal against Liverpool been overturned due to foul on keeper Alisson?  Tough call, but VAR probably should leave that one alone.
5) Was Hazard fouled in the box or just outside as referee called? VAR probably upholds call.
6) Was Aubameyang fouled in the box to give Arsenal and PK against Man United?  VAR probably upholds that one too.

I think there a few others that might have been reviewable but my notes are too cryptic to decipher.  Still a supporter of VAR but getting worried that it will be overused.  If one or two looks at full speed don't change your impression, let the call stand.  Definitely shouldn't be using slow motion either.  The point isn't to be perfect, it's to be better because it will never be perfect.


EPL Champions League Success

With Liverpool's 3-1 win over Bayern and Man City beating Schalke by a touchdown, the EPL now has four sides into the Champions League quarterfinals.  The news was not so good for Atletico, as they lost away to Juventus 0-3, completing Michael B's bad, awful week.  Barcelona struggled a little with Lyon before pulling away to a 5-1 win.  Fixtures for the quarters and semis will be drawn Friday morning, probably after this is published.  Not sure how meaningful odds provided before the draw are but Man City and Barcelona seem to be getting most of the love right now.


Another Fast Start

Not necessarily surprising but the Union fell to Sporting KC on the road 0-2.  The score is actually unflattering.  SKC got goals on a soft but correct PK on Trusty and an own goal off of Elliott.  Fabian missed a PK and we played the last 30 minutes down a man after Fabian was sent off on a straight red card.  In other words, we were mediocre, not awful, and a draw would not have been an unreasonable result.  The fullback play of Kai Wagner was a bright spot. Metrics at 538 say the Union had more good chances, leaving us with the question again of are we unlucky or ungood.  Some are already answering the latter but that might be too quick.

 Clearly the team is not fully adjusted to the new system.  We should be expecting more offensive pressure than we're seeing but we also know that more will be required of the center backs and the holding midfielder.  Medunjanin seemed to do better this time but Trusty struggled; the PK call was soft but he did foul the attacker because he wasn't back quickly enough.  Hoping we don't go 0-for-March but it could happen.


FA Cup Affected Schedule

FA Cup quarter finals are this weekend so the EPL schedule gets shortened.  As far as I can tell, you can only see the FA Cup matches on ESPN+; schedule is here.  I'm most interested in Wolves - Man United match; Wolverhampton have been very tough against top six teams.  Watford - Crystal Palace could be good too.  Man City should keep hopes for the quadruple (League Cup, FA Cup, EPL and Champions League) alive as they face Swansea City.  Millwall, at home, could give Brighton some trouble.

Meanwhile, back in the EPL, Newcastle travel to Bournemouth, possibly a little short-handed at center back with Schar suspended (yellow card accumulation) and Lascelles maybe still injured.  Not expecting a result here but a point would be awesome.  Burnley-Leicester is the NBCSN game at 11 am and West Ham - Huddersfield, like Newcastle will be on NBC Gold at 11.

Sunday has two more matches with Liverpool traveling to London to face Fulham (and likely moving back to the top of the table for the time being) while Chelsea face Everton at Goodison Park (the Blues can't afford to drop any points here).  Those games are on NBCSN at 10:15 and 12:30.

The Union's bad awful start isn't likely to improve with a road trip to Atlanta.  That's at 7 pm on Sunday.

Get ready for international break next week, which includes qualifying matches for the 2020 European Championship.