Home and Dry

Things went pretty well for BFS sides this weekend.


Newcastle Safe for Another Year

Defense wins championships, or in this case avoids relegation.
Paul Dummett has been rock steady in the back

Another roller coaster ride of a season but the Magpies are guaranteed safety after a 3-1 defeat of Southampton combined with Cardiff City's loss to Liverpool.  Two standouts were Ayoze Perez with a hat trick and Paul Dummett with frequent defensive interventions.  Always liked Perez's work rate but his finishing has been inconsistent and he can be outmuscled.  He's got six goals in six games so the finishing is better but against Southampton he also seemed to be able to hold onto the ball under pressure.  We'll make his second goal this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Frankly, I didn't think he could get to the ball much less put it on frame, especially with Southampton defender draped all over him.

Newcastle were totally dominant in the first half but not so much after the break.  Might be the first time I've seen Benitez outcoached.  The Magpies were under pressure most of the second half and were arguably lucky not to end up with a draw here.  Until Perez netted his third in the 86th minute, this felt like a match that was slipping away.  Metrics at 538 back up the impression that this was much closer than the score indicates.

A word on the yellow versus red for Ward-Prowse for his cynical foul on Almiron.  The laws list four factors for DOGSO:

distance between the offence and the goal
general direction of the play
likelihood of keeping or gaining control of the ball
location and number of defenders

Good on 2 and 3 but not on 1 and 4.  The offense occurred in the Newcastle half of the field, which is a long way from the goal.  There was also a Southampton defender in the center of the pitch, roughly even with Almiron at the time of the foul.  Benitez argued that there was also a second Newcastle attacker so the two on one should have warranted the red card.  But that's not so obvious a goal scoring opportunity.  Certainly felt like the Magpies were cheated but it was the right call.  Perez got the opening goal minutes later so it lost its power as a talking point.

Almiron went down with a hamstring injury and will miss the final three games of the season.  Fortunately those matches are just window dressing.  With the relegation threat decided, we will now turn to the drama surrounding Benitez's situation.  His contract expires on June 30th.  He's looking for more control over player transfers.  Whether Ashley will accede to that is unclear.  Also, several key players may not be returning, including Ritchie (old by Newcastle standards), Diame (same), Hayden (wants to be closer to home).  Should be a hectic June.


Status Quo

Neither Man City or Liverpool had an easy day of things but they still managed to get their three points. The City - Spurs rematch was a sequel almost worthy of the CL game earlier in the week.  Not quite as intense, some weary legs perhaps but still a good contest.  Tottenham will likely feel they could have nicked a point but lost 0-1.  Liverpool were never really in jeopardy but took their sweet time in putting Cardiff away.  Wijnaldum got the break through at 57 minutes and Milner's PK at 81 minutes sealed the deal.  The loss by the Blue Birds brought safety to four sides including Newcastle, Bournemouth, West Ham and Crystal Palace.


Easter Turkeys

Ooh boy, did the four teams competing for the last two Champions League spots put up some stinkers.  Teams in places three through six all dropped points.  Spurs, who had already dropped three points on Saturday against Man City, were looking like they would drop two more at home to Brighton until a well-placed shot from Eriksen in the 88th minute gave them a 1-0 victory.  That made them the only one of the four to get a win over this week and puts them in a commanding position for one of the spots.  Chelsea coughed up a lead to Burnley and could only manage a 2-2 draw.  Those dropped points could have been really costly except Arsenal and Man United lost twice.  Focusing on the Cardiff - Liverpool match, I didn't get to see the exciting derby between Arsenal and Crystal Palace.  Arsenal's 2-3 loss to the Eagles was followed by a 1-3 loss to those giant slayers Wolverhampton.  That gives Wolves 16 points versus top six sides in EPL play plus two wins in FA Cup play.  Their chances for a 7th place finish are good.

Man United was gutted 0-4 by Everton on Sunday.  To be fair, there were some sweet goals from the Toffees so it's not all on the United players. Sorry Jeff H but here's a compendium of the goals - the semi bicycle kick from Richarlson was pretty cool but so were the lasers strikes from Sigurdsson and Digne.  Still, there was a lot of finger pointing and ranting afterwards.  I had that one as a draw but it was also one of the few places United could have picked up extra points to boost their flagging chances. No one was expecting much from them in Wednesday's Manchester derby and you'd have to say they delivered with an 0-2 loss to City.  De Gea has been shaky but United haven't scored from the run of play since April 2nd, a stretch of 527 minutes.  Technically all four are still in it but Tottenham clinch with just two wins and given their favorable goal differential could possibly make it with a win and a draw.  Chelsea hold a one point lead over Arsenal so arguably control their own fate but need to beat Man United to maintain that advantage.


Whose Left in the Relegation Fight?

Technically Southampton and Burnley aren't finished yet.  Southampton added a point with a mid week draw against Watford, while Burnley got an unexpected point with the Chelsea draw.  They both look safe.  No, the real contest is down to Brighton and Cardiff.  Brighton managed a heroic draw 0-0 versus Wolves and were two minutes away from duplicating the feat at the new White Hart Lane before Eriksen's goal snatched that away.  But it was one more than Cardiff got.  In one way the odds favor Brighton; both teams probably only get one more point so Brighton's three point lead is safe.  But you could argue that Cardiff has the betters chances for upsets - wins over Fulham and Crystal Palace don't sound outrageous.  Brighton might beat Newcastle but they finish with Arsenal and Man City.  Also, the Seagulls haven't scored in 646 minutes, making it difficult to get points other than through 0-0 draws.  Brighton's better goal differential (-22 vs -35) does give them the tiebreaker advantage.


Union Hammer Montreal

Three reasons for Union improvement?
Monteiro, Wagner and Aaronson (l-r)

The first sign that maybe things will be different this year.  They got on Montreal pretty quickly with Burke finally putting a shot on frame.  Monteiro added to the lead with a PK and Bedoya settled things with a another at 57 minutes - putting away a cross that Burke totally flubbed.  Monteiro and Aaronson were more than capable in the midfield so we didn't especially feel the loss of Fabian.  Aurelien Collin (an unnoticed off-season acquisition) was absolutely steady as a replacement for Trusty (serving a one game suspension).  Wagner finally put a foot wrong but it wasn't what you think.  He was solid again on defense but made an absolutely unnecessary challenge late that got him a well-deserved red card. Blake picked up a groin injury late and had to leave.  But overall a great day at Talen Energy.  Not every personnel move is working exactly has planned but the sum of the parts seems to be good enough.


Still Plenty to Play For

Helping out at Penn Relays this weekend so viewing may be limited.  Unfortunately, with the title challenge, Champions League spots and relegation still unsettled, there aren't too many meaningless matches.

The most obvious place to start is Man United versus Chelsea at 11:30 on Sunday.  Could be curtains for one or even both if the match ends in a draw.  At the top Liverpool have the easier task, hosting Huddersfield (Friday afternoon), than Man City who must travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley (Sunday at 9 am).  Spurs will need to be careful in the London derby with West Ham (7:30 Saturday) but so will Arsenal, who travel to Leicester (Sunday at 7 am).  And who decided we needed early matches on Saturday and Sunday?

Down lower, Cardiff get to face Fulham (10 am Saturday on NBCSN), their best chance at grabbing three points in the closing stages.  Except Fulham are on a two game win streak with two straight clean sheets.  Brighton host Newcastle (the 12:30 NBC match on Saturday), also the best chance for Brighton to get three points but will require they actually put the ball into the net.

Lost in the shuffle will be the battle for 7th in the table between Watford and Wolves (10 am Saturday but only on NBC Gold).  Both teams have done a fine job this season and play eminently watchable football.

Union are on the road to Vancouver.  They will be without Blake and Wagner and probably Fabian.  Not sure what Curtin does with Collin but he'll probably return Trusty to the starting line-up.  The Whitecaps have been less than impressive to date so this would be a great game to take a point on the road.

Don't forget Champions League semi-final first leg matches.  Tottenham Ajax on Tuesday and Barcelona Liverpool on Wednesday. Both are on TNT at 3 pm.