One Saturday in August

Newcastle and the Union get wins on the same day!

Reports of Our Relegation Threat Are Exaggerated

Elanga makes it two in two
Photo: Michael Zemanek/Shutterstock

The scoreline of Sunday's 2-0 win over Spurs is misleading.  After a scoreless first half the match felt like it could go either way.  Then the Magpies got two improbable finishes from two who, based on last year, would have been considered improbable sources - Elanga and Wissa.  Here's Wissa's goal, presented as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The stats have a decidedly Spurs bias - shots 16/7, shots on target 5/2, possession 58/42 and most tellingly xG 1.21/.88.  So Newcastle's only shots on target were the goals.  On a positive note, it looks like Spurs' higher xG is just the result of more shots, not higher probability shots.  

With four points from two matches that could have easily yielded one or none, maybe we need to adjust expectations.  Sure it's only two matches in but there are multiple promising signs including:

- an attacking philosophy right from the kickoffs so far

- Elanga and Wissa scoring like they did in 2024/25

- Hornicek looks like an improvement over Pope

- Dedic looks like a great addition to the backline that will also get stronger when Burn and Livramento return from injury

- new acquisitions Nico Gonzalez and Matias Fernandez-Pardo may not be Guimaraes and Tonali but they could start to fill that void

- no Champions League to add 11 matches to an already crowded schedule

I counsel patience for Spurs; they are likely to be okay once they sort out personnel.  The bad news is that patience hasn't exactly been the hallmark of that club.

Stop Dissing the 7:30 am Saturday Matches

First we had Hull's 2-0 upset of Man United, then we got Liverpool rescuing another 2-2 draw with a late goal.  They had fallen behind early but drew level at 60 minutes.  Forest went up again 10 minutes later after a foul in the box.  New arrival Victor Munoz rescued a point for the Reds with this bit of handiwork close to the goal.  

Low Bar

Aston Villa had a better outing this week, though it would have been difficult to duplicate the Brighton debacle.  Losing 0-1 to last year's champion and this year's favorite Arsenal is hardly a disaster.  They held the Gunners to an xG of just 1.21 on just seven shots with only two on target, so the scoreline is not misleading.  The problem is at the other end of the pitch.  They don't have a shot on target yet this season, let alone a goal.  I have same Rx for them as Spurs.

Myth Information

Turns out Erling Haaland's goalscoring prowess is not linked to his hair. The still-shorn Norseman netted two in Man City's 4-1 romp away to Crystal Palace.  This likely sent a shiver down the collective spine of the EPL.

Top Four

Chelsea had a relatively easy time with Brighton and Hull dispatched relegation rival Coventry City so four sides remain undefeated.  Here's the table after two weeks:

Exactly as predicted.

The Transfer Window Madness

Part of me wants to rail about how Man City was able to spend $257m to get Enzo Fernandez ($169m) and Illiman Ndiaye ($88m) as the summer transfer window closed.  Doesn't sound like financial fair play to me.  But they made a lot selling other players so that their net spend for the window was about $255m, just the fourth highest in the EPL.  The full table is below.

At one point it felt like dominos.  Gakpo was going to City, Ndiaye was going to Spurs and Richarlison was going to Everton.  Then, Gakpo wasn't leaving so City grabbed Ndiaye, leaving Spurs with a very disgruntled Richarlison.  

It was ultimately a frustrating window for USMNT striker Folarin Balogun.  His signing with Everton looked to be a formality until issues arose during his medical.  Monaco did not agree with the Everton medical assessment but they did continue to negotiate and reached a revised deal.  Except Balogun was no longer comfortable signing with Everton, feeling disrespected by the club and medical staff.  Details can be had here.  Just found a more detailed blow-by-blow accounting here.

And just for fun, here's one man's ranking of all 155 transfers this window.  Not necessarily surprised but see a couple of Villa deals near the bottom (looking at you Jackson and Garnacho); at least Manzambi, Goretzka, Suzuki and Gomes rate highly.   His generally positive views on the Newcastle deals mostly match mine.

Still Not Financially Fair

As a reminder, the EPL made a slight tweak to their financial fair play rules.  Previously, spending was controlled by limiting the size of the operating loss a club could sustain.  In other words, costs could only exceed revenues by a targeted amount.  Now they will use a squad cost ratio, which basically limits spending on players to 85% of their revenue.  It's a slightly different calculation with basically the same effect - your ability to spend $ on players is limited by your revenues.  

Given the massive variation in revenue between the clubs, this still doesn't look like a move towards greater fairness.  The most recent data I can find is from the 2024/25 season, available here.  Several clubs are over $900m while many are under $300m.  The chart below shows how that translates into a massive difference in allowable spending on players.

There's a fivefold difference between top and bottom and most clubs can only spend half or less of what the top four can spend.  Sure looks like the rules will still protect those with existing high revenue bases while preventing others from breaking through.

Milking the Cows

Pierre used his feet this time, not his head

Decidedly distracted viewing on my part but the Union's 3-1 win over Red Bulls sure looked deserved.  Stats mostly back that opinion; for example, xG was 3.5/2.1.  Check out this peach of a goal from Cavan Sullivan.  Pierre got another one, not via the header but instead used his long frame to poke the ball into the net.  

They are now just one point out of a "play-in playoff" spot and four away from a real playoff position.  

Midweek Football Is Back

Just a three day match weekend for the EPL but plenty of Champions League action midweek.

Friday's 3 pm match/nap has Liverpool traveling to Ipswich.  At 59/20/21 that might be more of a nap, though maybe it will be Liverpool's third straight 2-2 draw?

No dissing this week's Saturday 7:30 fixture with Newcastle hosting Bournemouth; the Magpies are prohibitive favorites (44/31/25) but this could be a close one.  The 10 am time slot is crowded with five fixtures.  TV picked the Man City - Coventry City mismatch.  I'd go with Nottingham Forest v Spurs on Peacock as the most interesting pick; off recent form Spurs are slight underdogs (40/33/27) but this may be where they start to figure things out.  Other choices at 10 are Brentford - Sunderland, Fulham - Palace and Brighton -Leeds.  The feature match is Hull hosting Aston Villa; I believe this is the match where Villa get a shot on target and a win.  

Sunday is light but decent.  At 9 you get Everton vs Man United, then at 11:30 there's a solid London Derby with Arsenal hosting Chelsea.  In the latter, Opta sees the Gunners as a massive favorite at 57/19/24 but that seems high to me.

For midweek football lovers we have a complete Champions League schedule as they begin league play.  Full schedule is here.  Being EPL-centric, we note Tuesday has Aston Villa vs Club Brugge at 12:30 and Man City - Porto at 3.  Wednesday is Napoli- Arsenal and Liverpool-Atletico Madrid, both at 3.  The EPL's fifth entry, Man United, play Sabah at 3 pm on Thursday.

The Union look to extend their unbeaten streak to eight as they host Montreal at Subaru Park Saturday at 7:30.  A home match versus the struggling 14th place side?  Has trap game with a capital T written all over it.  Hopefully they don't fall into it.  They also have Cincinnati on Wednesday at 7:30, again at home.  They could significantly boost their playoff chances with some results here.  

Days off are going to be scarce for a while.