Let The Games Begin

Very nice of the IOC to wrap up their quadrennial spectacle before the EPL season started.  Would have put a massive strain on the DVR.

She Did It Her Way

Brazil definitely took it to the US in the first half of the gold medal match.  They had the better of the chances but Naeher came up big.  OTHO, good so see US weather that first half storm.  Swanson got them the goal they would need on a sweet pass from Albert.  There was some hint of offside but the goal correctly withstood review (see below). You can see the play as this week's easy choice for the YouTubeableMoment.  Squeaky bum time the rest of the way as the US never got a second goal.  Keeper Naeher would have to come up big again in stoppage time, seen here, to preserve the win.  The stats say a close match with slight edge to Brazil.  60/40 possession, 10/9 on shots, shots on target 4/3, 1.41/1.15 on xG.  But in the end, the US did enough to get the gold.

So Hayes gets to point to the gold in response to critics of her team selection and subsitution strategy. As I said earlier, I would have preferred more squad rotation.  Brazil, notably, had extensively rotated their squad throughout the tournament but that didn't seem to help them.   Some are saying they had a lucky path to the gold.  She benefited from from Swanson's return and recent missteps by earlier managers.  Blah, blah, blah.  As Bill James once said, and maybe a frog could fly a plane if we only knew how to translate the instructions into "froggy."  You can make the argument that Hayes was lucky, not right, but the team is wearing gold medals so maybe her way was the right way.

Offside- Part XXIV

Pciture posted by Jonathan Tannenwald showing that
Swanson was in an onside position at the time of the pass

My exact words to Dennis at the time of  Swanson's goal were "I think she was on, the other was off."  By that I meant, that although Smith was in an offside position, she was not involved in active play and the goal would stand.  And it did.  Oy, but there was tons of misinformation that followed. I saw some say the play never went to VAR.  That is not correct.  Just because the center referee didn't go to the monitor didn't mean the play wasn't reviewed. [Ed. note: what did your 10th grade English teacher tell you about using triple negatives?] She didn't have to go to the monitor because she didn't need to - the onfield call was clearly correct.

Many were sure that Swanson was offside.  Tannenwald's picture (right) shows otherwise; the grain of the grass cutting means we don't have to worry about parallax error.  Others were convinced that the goal should have been chalked off because Smith was offside.  The picture does confirm that Smith was indeed in an offside position but if you follow the video you'll see she never touched the ball or interfered with the defenders.   Yeah but, but.  Not buts about it.  The IFAB website even has an FAQ on this exact situation:

An attacking team player in an offside position (A) runs towards the ball and a team-mate in an onside position (B) also runs towards the ball and plays it. The first player (A) does not touch the ball and does not impact any opponent’s ability to play or challenge for the ball. What is the referee’s decision? 

The referee allows play to continue as the attacking team player (A) has not committed an offside offence.

Substitute (A) with Smith and (B) with Swanson and you have the scenrio that played out for the goal.  It's only a controversial goal if you don't know the rules.

A League Of Our Own

Turns out the Leagues Cup is just like the EFL Caraboa Cup.  That is, we love to trash the concept until we find our team going deep into the tournament with a chance to win the whole thing, or at least get something out of it.  Which is exactly where we find the Union right now.  With wins over Montreal and Cincinnati, they are now in the quarterfinals and will take on Mazatlan on Saturday for a place in the semis.  Should they move past the Mexican club, they would face Columbus or NYCFC in the semi.  Even if they lose in the semis, there is still a third place match that offers a spot in next year's CONCACAF Champions League.

Baribo: Nine goals in the last six matches!

I did see the 2-0 win over Montreal on "free" Apple but am hard-pressed to remember much about it.  Baribo got a brace of stoppage time goals, one in each half.  The stats say that Montreal didn't threaten the Union goal all that much though they did have the better of possession.  I remember a key Blake save early but that he wasn't tested all that much otherwise.  

I followed the 4-2 over Cincinnati on radio.  With all those goals, Dave Leno was probably a little hoarse afterward.  This had classic Union written all over it.  Build a 2-0 lead, surrender a goal at 66 minutes, then the equalizer at 80 minutes.  Great, we're gonna lose on PKs.  Then, Quinn Sullivan to the rescue.  He set up Baribo just one minute after Cincinnati drew level (another brace for Tai!) then got one for himself at 84 minutes.  Blake (or as Leno calls him, Brickwall Blake) had to make a few more saves before this one was over but they did hold on for the somewhat improbable win.  

We love the Leagues Cup!

Handicapping the EPL

I gathered up some of the predictions found on line to create a composite chart of all the projections.  It was suppposed to be shown below but I'm on the road and the file is on my external hard drive sitting in Philadelphia.  If you could see it, you might notice that the average for each team creates four separate clusters with relatively clean breaks.  Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool have their own cluster at 1, 2 and 3.  The next group (4th through 8th) looks like Newcastle, Man United, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Chelsea.  The abbreviated mid-table (9th-11th) is West Ham, Crystal Palace, and Brighton.  Then we have the relegation don't-wanna-bes (12th-16th) Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham, Wolves and Brentford.  Then there are the clear relegation favorites (17th-20th) Southampton, Nottingham Forest, Leicester and Ipswich.  

Also note there are some big ranges here.  Fulham show up between 10th and 19th and Bournemouth forecasts go from 10th to 18th.  And, Man United, Everton and Brighton have a range of seven.  Newcastle predictions aren't exactly tight either.  Frankly the 3 and 4 finishes seem highly unlikely to me; 5th to 8th sounds more realistic. That is especially after a relatively tepid summer transfer window for the Magpies.  They are on their third bid for Palace defender March Guehi, which would be a big acquisition.  Otherwise, they have made marginal improvements that don't say top four finish to me.  You can see all EPL transfers here.

Answer To Last Week's Puzzler

Assuming no one has been sacked, the correct answers are:

US Soccer Federation Has A Type?

Multiple sources are saying that Pochettino will be the new manager of the USMNT.  Hmm, are they thinking that hiring an ex-Chelsea manager worked well for the USWNT so let's try it for the men?  Dennis notes that Hayes was with the Blues for 12 years and won, like eight titles so maybe it's not exactly the same.  Color me skeptical but I guess it's a change in approach so maybe that's a good thing.

And We're Off

The season opens with me visiting my dad in New Hampshire.  The good news is that we have been working on him over the years and he is generally cool with watching soccer, especially when someone is there to explain what's happeing.

Week 1 is nicely spread out over four days.  The season kicks off with Man United hosting Fulham on Friday at 3 pm (USA).  You can rise early on Saturday to see Liverpool welcome Ipswich back in the top tier (7:30 on USA); Opta sees that as rude welcome, with Liverpool at 66% to win and 18% to draw.    Four to choose from at 10.  We will watch Newcastle open their campaign at Saint James' Park against Southampton.  Opta has this as one of the weekend's bigger mismatches and I hope they are correct.  USA went with Arsenal- Wolves, which looks like an even bigger blowout, with the Gunners at 76% to win and 14% to draw.  Thus, I would go with Everton - Brighton or Nottingham Forest - Bournemouth as more competitive choices.

The NBC feature match at 12:30 is the battle of Claret and Blue, except only West Ham will be in those colors as Aston Villa will have to go with their away kit.  Good choice for the feature match.  The Hammers are slight favorites, likely reflecting little more than the home field advantage.

Two on Sunday with Brentford - Crystal Palace at 9 am on USA and then Chelsea vs Man City at 11:30 on NBC.  The later has the sound of an important fixture but not so much lately; Opta sees that 60% win for Man City, with Chelsea only at 19% for a win.  The week concludes with Leicester's return to the Premier League hosting Spurs.

Union are at home against Mazatlan.  Given that this match wasn't on the fixture list until Tuesday night and the stakes are a bit higher, we will be interested to see if the Union fans are outnumbered this time.

Oh to be in front of a TV now that EPL is here.

While We Were Away

Apparently the world went on without us. 

Sister Can You Spare A Sub?

Naeher says "nein"

The USWNT navigated the Olympic group stage just fine, then went to added extra time in 1-0 wins over Japan in the quarters and Germany in the semis.  The extra time goals came from Rodman and Smith but we'd be remiss in not mentioning Naehar's late save against Germany to preserve the win.

Emma Hayes's substitution protocol has drawn considerable attention, most of it unfavorable.  With the US guaranteed advancement to the knockout round and an unlikely confluence of results needed to deny them first place in the group, Hayes passed on a chance to rotate the lineup at all for the final group stage match. She made only one change for the Japan quarterfinal but that was driven by Coffey's suspension for yellow card accumulation.  She made no subs in regular time and only three in added extra time - and one of those was in the 121st minute.  Hayes did make two changes for the Germany quarterfinal and did use five subs throughout the course of the match.

Dennis and I discussed the difficulty in assessing the success or failure of Hayes's strategy.  Her view is that the US wouldn't have advanced if she had made liberal use of subs.  In her defense, she gets to point out they are in the gold medal match.  Even if they win that match, we're not sure that's the end of the discussion though.  We'll never know if they would have made it anyway with more substitutions.  More than one person has pointed out that unwillingness to put subs in could be very damaging to their morale and their long-term development.  What if the real cost of the strategy doesn't show up until future international competitions?  Of course, the answers to those questions are essentially unknowable.  I would have preferred she do the rotation for the final group stage match against Australia but I only manage a team on the computer.

Participation Trophy

The USMNT did almost exactly what was expected of them in Paris.  Lose to France, beat New Zealand and Guinea, bow out in the quarterfinals.  The 4-0 final to Morocco is slightly misleading as the score for 60 plus minutes was just 1-0 on a soft PK call.  But Morocco were clearly the better side.  It was fun to see Nathan Harriel have a solid tournament and watch Jack McGlynn and Paxton Aaronson make some contributions. 

The Dreaded Leagues Cup

Though my head was telling me an early exit from this silly competition would have been just fine, there I was at Subaru Park hoping for good results against Charlotte and Cruz Azul.  The 1-0 win over Charlotte was a snooze fest.  Attending the Cruz Azul will go down as one of my more interesting soccer experiences, as explained below.  The match itself was okay.  The Union were guaranteed advancement to the knockout phase and that showed in their early play.  Actually, they were outplayed for most of the match, and fully deserved to be trailing late.  Kudos to the team for not quitting and getting the equalizer late, a scruffy looking goal from Gazdag.  Though they lost the PK shootout, the 1-1 draw was enough to secure them first in the group and presumably a better draw in the knockout phase.  

Mi Subaru Park, Su Subaru Park

Representative of about 75% of fans on Sunday night

I have always wanted to see a match in Mexico and Sunday night I got the chance to do just that without leaving the comfort of Pennsylvania.  Say what?  So the Union were playing Cruz Azul in the group stage of the Leagues Cup.  Walking to the stadium it felt like an away game as Cruz Azul fans 1) outnumbered Union supporters and 2) were way more vocal.  Street vendors offering food and souvenirs were out in force, probably ten times more than usual.  The feeling continued in the stadium as the bi-lingual announcer did his best to make the Cruz Azul fans feel right at home, offering a full-throated introduction of the Cruz Azul starting XI.  We didn't really need the goal to know we were outnumbered 3 or 4 to 1.  The goal just made it more obvious, especially when the scorer and time of goal were announced with a lusty GOALLLL!!!! that would have made Andres Cantor proud.  I swear it felt like Union management was treating this as a Friendship Tournament.  

There was one part that we thought strange and didn't really understand until the next day.  At certain breaks in the match, they would play what we thought were Mexican commercial jingles over the PA.  Wow, really making them feel at home.  Uh, not so much.  What was actually happening was that a number of Cruz Azul fans were doing the infamous homophobic chant on goal kicks and the stadium officials were trying to drown it out with the music so it wouldn't be obvious on TV.  Now I am not amused.  There is a protocol for this and it does not include playing music over the chant:

In addition, match organizers are required to implement a new three-step protocol introduced by FIFA in 2019 for any discriminatory incidents:

• Step 1: Match stoppage and warning to fans
• Step 2: Match suspension and players moved to benches
• Step 3: Abandonment of the match

Bob Newhart has this right answer for these 
offensive chants on goal kicks

We will probably get some lame excuse that this policy only applies to international matches.  Oh, and while we're at it, why not take action on the "you suck asshole" chant that Union fans employ in the same situation.  Enough already, it's not funny.

Fortunately, with the result (by winning the PK shootout Cruz Azul also advance) neither group of fans left the stadium disgruntled.  What I don't understand is how I passed up on the churros.  I mean, fried dough, how can you go wrong?  

Who's Your Gaffer?

Unfortunately, many of the progniators pronounhaters people who predict things have not weighed in with their projections for the season.  But, we do have an exercise to help prepare you for the new season.  Significant post-season turnover and the unfamiliarity with the promoted teams means a host of new managers.  I could only name 11 from scratch.  We'll make it slightly easier, giving you all the names and letting you see if you can match them with their teams.

Answers next week.

Also, a few procedural type changes that you can read about here.  I didn't know they were limited to just three subs warming up at a time.  I'm used to seeing the whole Union bench head to east end of Subaru Park to warm up.  The plan to allow 30 seconds as the natural time between when a goal is scored and the restart should reduce stoppage time by an average of about 1:30 per game given the average goals per game of 3.28.   

A few other changes are noted here.  The move to semi-automated offside calls isn't scheduled to take effect until after the autumn international break but that could help on those lengthy VAR delays.  The points related to VAR read more like a mission statement than specific reforms but okay.  They are ditching the "winter break," which consisted of one weekend off in January.  And I'm sure we're all pumped that teams will now be required to announce their starting XI 75 minutes before kick-off as opposed to the previous 60 minutes.  

Wrapping Up Summer Break

France and Spain will play for the men's gold medal today at 12 (USA I think).  The women's gold medal match between the US and Brazil is Saturday at 11 (USA).  There was an extra day of rest between the semis and the final but figure both teams are tired.  I did see a few of the Brazil matches and they prove the exception to my belief that shithousery is significantly less prevalent in the women's  game.  Expect an ugly match.

The Union drew CF Montreal for the round of 32 knockout stage in the Leagues Cup.  My phone says I have tickets to this contest but the weather forecast may have other ideas.  Rain, wind, thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes.  We'll see.

EPL is a week away.

 

What To Do While Waiting for EPL and MLS

Apologies to those who read the early edition of last week's blog and didn't know the Union were actually playing Nashville in an MLS game on Saturday, not Charlotte in a Leagues Cup game.  Dennis didn't find out until a friend at the match texted him, asking if Dennis saw a replay on Uhre's BFS early in the first half and whether the call was legit.  That prompted this week's:

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Most Assuredly Did

Steve: You were supposed to be watching live but weren't because of the mistake in the blog? Heads will roll.

Dennis: Exactly.  The whole system is in shambles.

Those who did tune in saw another respectable performance from the Union.  The 3-0 final is a bit (a lot?) misleading though.  The U were the better side in the first half and basically deserved the 2-0 lead on a brace from Gazdag.  The second half was more in Nashville's favor.  There was one off the crossbar and then a solid save from Blake that kept the two goal cushion.  Had either of those gone in, the game might have played out differently.  Gazdag got his hat trick late on a sloppy play by Nashville in their own box to make the match look like the rout that it definitely wasn't. We'll make the collective highlights of Gazdag's three goals this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nashville had better possession (56/44) and outshot the U 20/19.  But the U finishing was more clinical has shots on target were 10/3 and xG was 3.2/1.8.

At 6'5" with speed to burn, is Adeniran a target striker or fast striker?
He's both

A top four finish is pretty much out of the question and barring big collapses from NYCFC, Charlotte and Orlando, making the top seven is a long shot too.  But getting the 8th or 9th slot for the play-in game and a spot in the playoffs is easily within reach.  Of course, so is last place.  I'm also thinking that Martinez has been as critical to the recent turnaround as Blake.  The addition of Sam Adeniran, who had a decent shift in his first appearance, gives us some depth up front that we were missing.  I am sticking with last week's optimism.  

Injury Update

Several concerning moments at Subaru Park but so far no serious fallout.

Slight bruising that will not affect viewing

Andre Blake - Sat down with some sort of issue with his "good" knee but was able to continue and
made some key saves.  Note however that late in the match, Glesnes was taking the goal kicks.

Jose Martinez - Suffered some sort of leg injury late, soldiered on for a little but was eventually substituted

Steve - Spectactor walking in the row behind him fell and smashed Steve's arm into the top of the seat.  He was able to continue watching and is listed as probable for this Saturday.

Things To Do As We Wait for EPL and MLS

Listed in no particular order

1) Watch for developments in the choice of USMNT manager - Names continue to fly all over the place.  The top domestic choices appear to be Cherundolo, Nancy and Curtin.  Other options include any unemployed big name foreign manager.

2) Watch for developments in the choice of English national team manager - Applications are due by August 2nd.  Howe, Potter and Lampard are the most frequently heard domestic names while Klopp, Pochettino, and Tuchel are mentioned as well.

3) Watch the men's Olympic soccer tournament - The tournament is essentially a U-23 affair, with each team limited to three players born before 1/1/2001.  There are four groups of four with each team playing the others in their group once.  The top two in each group advance to the quarterfinals.  Semi-finals are Monday 8/5, the bronze medal game is Thursday 8/8 and the final is Friday 8/9.

The betting odds like France, Argentina and Spain.  The US odds are very long, though they do look likely to make it out of the group stage.  The US team does feature two current Union players (Jack McGlynn and Nathan Harriel) and a former Union player (Paxton Aaronson).  Their group stage matches are France (Wednesday 7/23 at 3 pm), New Zealand (Saturday 7/27 at 1 pm) and Guinea (Tuesday 7/30 at 1 pm).

4) Watch the women's Olympic soccer tournament - The women's tournament does not have the age restrictions so is more like a true world championship.  There are three groups of four with each team playing the others in their group once.  The top two in each group, plus the two best third-place teams make it to the knockout phase.  Ah yes, the old group stage to eliminate just one-third of the field format.  Semi-finals are Tuesday 8/6, bronze medal game is Friday 8/9 and the final is Saturday 8/10.

The oddsmakers like the US, followed by Spain and France.  However, I've seen several pick France over the US, including The Inquirer's Jonathan Tannenwald.

5) Watch the Leagues Cup (only if you're desparate?) - My favorite quote with respect to this competition comes from Tannenwald, who notes that the competition is: 

with conquering hero Lionel Messi sidelined by an ankle injury, perhaps an event widely derided as a cash grab and will be properly exposed. 

Sounds about right.  Very unfortunate timing for the Union, who may have found some consistency to their game but now don't have a league match for five weeks.  A possible fun aspect is that we might get to see more of Cavan Sullivan.

6) Spend an inordinate amount of time at datamb comparing players.  For example, Aston Villa had to sell Douglas Luiz to meet financial regulations but have now signed Amadou Onana.  The radar graph (left) provides insight on how the two players differ.  Off that chart, we might conclude that Villa have traded some attacking skills for defending skills, though several have mentioned that Onana's numbers may reflect the philosophy of Sean Dyche and that we might see a different Onana under Emery.  Anyway, the site is good for endless hours of timewasting in-depth analysis.

With those suggestions, we will sign off until August 9th, when we will return with a look at the upcoming EPL season.

Prepare For A Little Withdrawal

With the Euros and Copa America done plus the MLS moving out of league play for five weeks, things will feel very slow until the EPL returns on August 16th.  

Can't Complain About the Reign in Spain

Spain are back on top of Europe again

They were the most consistent side in the tournament.  Their 2-1 win over England was by no means decisive but at the final whistle, you did feel the better team had won.  Down 0-1, England manager Gareth Southgate tried to reprise his Ollie Watkins and Cole Palmer substitution success of the semis and it sort of worked.  Palmer got the equalizer at 73 minutes and there was a sense that maybe England had a chance.  But Spain regrouped pretty quickly and started to work their possession game again.  Oyarzabal got the game winner at 86 minutes; seen here, the whole play was quickly and simply executed.  It was a perfect example of how Spain, while abandoning the tiki taka passing seemingly for passing's sake that had limited their success in recent years, has reworked the tactic so the passing has a purpose. 

Overall, the tournament was entertaining enough, certainly not short on drama.  The big negative I saw was long stretches between moments of quality.  Seems like there was a tendency on the part of managers to play not to lose.  But on balance, still a good watch. 

Southgate Departs

Though he did not sport his 
usual waistgate at Euro 2024,
this is likely how Southgate 
will be remembered

Two straight Euro finals (narrowly losing both) a World Cup semi final (2018) and a World Cup quarterfinal (2022).  Not a bad record - the only European team to reach at least the quarterfinals in those last four tournaments.  Sometimes it's hard not to measure reality against the weight of expectations for this team and the feeling that they could have done more creeps in.  But that's more likely a function of overestimating their talent because we're so familiar with the personnel.

Speculation is wild as to his replacement.  Eddie Howe and Graham Potter come up a lot. I've heard Klopp mentioned again.  Pochettino may be in the mix.  With the World Cup just two years away, they really don't want to wait too long.

Probably means we won't see a waist coat on the sidelines again.

COPA America Concludes

Here are the highlights:

1) Uruguayan team climbed into stands and got into fights with Colombian fans

2) As detailed here, some untold number of fans were able to enter Hard Rock Stadium without tickets for the final.  Apparently there was also some trashing of stadium property.  The match kickoff was delayed by over an hour.

Fans sneaking in through the air vents at Hard Rock Stadium

3) As detailed here, the head of the Colombian football federation and his son were arrested on charges of battery for hitting security officers after the COPA America final.

4) As detailed here, Enzo Fernandez and some of his Argentine teammates were caught on tape singing a racist and homophobic chant directed at French players of African heritage.  The most surprising thing here is that there was misbehavior by the Argentina team and I have seen nothing to indicate that Emi Martinez was involved.

Seriously, WTF?  Seems like various parties are pointing fingers at other parties but there may be enough blame to go around.  We'll be watching closely for sanctions and changes.  Given that the World Cup will be here in two years, and Hard Rock Stadium is one of the venues, this stuff needs to be sorted out.

Oh, Argentina won.

Lightning Strikes Limited to the Pitch

After another abysmal come-from-ahead loss by the Union on Saturday, I was seriously on the fence about heading down to Subaru Park on Wednesday to see them face New England with the forecast calling for gusty thunderstorms.  In the end, the prospect of Blake and Martinez returning some stability to the defense and the potential debut of Cavan Sullivan won out.  Plus, gotta support the team.  Very happy to say the decision was handsomely rewarded.  The Union had the most attacking pressure I'd seen in months.  They reaped the benefits with goals at 29, 39 and 44 to take a 3-0 lead into the lockerroom. New England got one back early in the second half but the U immediately responded to restore the three-goal lead, then added another on a laser by Quinn Sullivan, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment; check out the slide over to where his brother was warming up as a sub.

After Quinn's goal, the only thing left was the introduction of Cavan Sullivan.  We could see he'd gotten word he was going in as he was getting high fives from the other subs and had a big grin on this face.  He came in at 85 minutes to a standing O, then got massive cheers everytime he touched the ball.  He made a nice run late that resulted in a decent shot.  

Baribo became the first Israeli player to get a hat trick in MLS;
his name kept coming up as "buddy ball" on the close captioning
Photo: Caean Couto-USA TODAY Sports

How to explain the turnaround? To my eye, Martinez was more the difference than Blake but maybe Elliott and Glesnes were buoyed by Andre's return as well.  Tai Baribo, whose playing time had been rather limited before Carranza's departure, has come to life, as witnessed by his hat trick Wednesday night.  In the glass half empty version, we can't forget they were playing New England.  Falling into "it's the hope that kills you trap," I think this team, with the key players on the pitch, should be able to make the playoffs. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Jeff H (with the Union up 3-0 on the Revolution): Didn't we lose two games 4-3? Just sayin'

Steve: Always with the negative waves, Jeff. Always with the negative waves.

So maybe the Union have figured things out - just in time for the break in MLS action for the stupid Leagues Cup competition.  They have group stage matches against Charlotte and Cruz Azul.  Any Leagues Cup games after that depend on performance.  They don't play an MLS match again until August 24th against Columbus.  [Editor's Note:Except for the 7/20 match against Nashville - who does the proofing on this blog?]  Did I mention I think this is stupid?   Just because I'll be there for the Charlotte match doesn't mean I changed my opinion.

"Bold, Belated Subs"

I got to see all four semi-finals.  All intriguing in their own way.

About Effin' Time

Gareth Southgate has been conservative - nay timid - in his lineup and substitution choices, even as the team has struggled to score, or even look dangerous.  After four straight matches showing nothing, England played their best football of the tournament in the first half against Netherlands.  Still, all they had to show for it was a 1-1 scoreline.  Then they lost the plot in the second half and the Dutch looked more the likely winner.  Still, not much of a response from Southgate.  

A study in contrast seconds after Watkins delivers
the game winner for England

For almost five matches now, Dennis and I have been pointing out that maybe Ollie Watkins could be the one to shake things up for England.  But all we had seen was a 22 minute cameo against Denmark.  Finally, in the 81st minute, Southgate puts him in and what do you know, Watkins scores the game winner in the 90th minute.  An easy pick for this week's YouTubeableMoment.  

So good on Southgate for making the substitution.  We get that taking Harry Kane out of a match is a hard thing to do.  But he can be fairly criticized for playing not to lose.  Like this ESPN article notes, the move was bold but belated.  The article also recognizes that pulling the plug on Kane is a tough choice for a manager but then notes that Kane was "flat-footed, tired and too easy to mark."  

Given Southgate's nature, I'm guessing the starting XI will be unchanged for the final, except maybe Luke Shaw for Trippier, who may be hurt.  But, will he be quicker to pull the trigger on a move to shake things up?

Two Improbable Shots

Spain certainly have looked like the best squad at the tournament and their 2-1 win over France was not a big surprise.  However, the xG on their two goals adds up to a whopping .145.  First, they got  this screamer from Lamine Yamal, who at 16 became the youngest scorer in European Championship history.  That one was rated at .023; that is a 2.3% chance, which frankly seems high.  The game winner from Dani Olmo, seen here, was .122; he did make a some nice touches in the box to set the shot.  Initially given as an own goal, the People In Charge of These Things eventually decided that the shot was going to be on target and gave Olmo credit.  

France had the better chances but did not convert.  Hard to feel like they were hard done by the loss.  They managed just one goal from open play over six matches.  

COPA MMA

I kid.  But only slightly.  Canada committed 15 fouls in the 0-2 loss to Argentina.  Uruguay and Colombia combined for 24 fouls, six yellows and two reds in one of the more challenging matches to referee that I can remember.  Colombia played the second half down a man and still pulled out a 1-0 win.  But apparently that didn't end things.  As reported here, Darwin Nunez and a bunch of his Uruguayan teammates climbed into the stands after the final whistle and fought with Colombian fans.  Please tell me we will get more than statements from the various federations saying they condemn violence; hopefully this will be investigated and sanctions applied where appropriate.

RAS (Referees Against Shithousery)

A limited search of the web turned up nothing on this but in the Uruguary - Colombia match, referee Cesar Ramos made the unusual move of restarting the match with a player down.  Colombian Richard Rios had gone down after a play in the Uruguayan corner but play continued.  At the next stoppage, Ramos went to check on Rios, but curiously allowed the match to restart with Rios still lying on the ground.  Announcers Jon Strong and Stuart Holden were mildly amused, thinking it was probably yet another player milking contact, although they also suggested that Ramos probably should have held the restart.

At the first stoppage after that, Ramos called for the stretcher and Rios was taken off across the end line.  He returned to play shortly thereafter but had to leave the match about five minutes after coming back on.  So this was the one in a thousand where the player might actually have been hurt.

I get what Ramos was thinking.  Colombia, up 1-0 and down a man, are going to do everything they can to slow the match down.  The right thing in this case was probably to call for the stretcher at the first stoppage.  But, the more players feign injuries, they more cynicism they'll be getting from referees when a player goes down.  

Wrexham Update (Spoiler Alert)

If you prefer to get your Wrexham information as it comes out in the Hulu TV series, do not read any further.

As the club prepares for the upcoming season in League One, they have been seeking to get an upgrade in the status of their youth academy.  Details are here.  Short version is that currently they are rated Category 4, which means they can only bring in players U-17 and older.  Their request for Category 3 status, which would allow them to have teams as young as U-9, has been denied.  Though they have appealed, the quality of their facilities makes it sound like they will be unsuccessful.  The consequence is that they will continue to lose out on young talent from their region who would be very interested in playing for Wrexham.

I was a bit surprised that I had not encountered this issue in 10+ years of Football Manager.  I've learned about all manner of regulations from the game but had not heard of this aspect.  

Berhalter Sacked

No surprises to hear that Gregg Berhalter was fired as USMNT coach on Wednesday.  Now we get to find out how real this Jurgen Klopp talk was.  Turns out, probably not much.  Maybe it's just too soon.  But if not Klopp, who?  Lots of names floating out there.  Two articles I saw mentioned Jim Curtin (or Jim Curtain as the CBS article spelled it).  Feels like too much noise right now to spend too much time speculating.

So busy day on Sunday.  Spain vs England at 3 pm.  Argentina vs Colombia at 8 pm.

A couple of Union matches too - at Toronto 7:30 Saturday and back home on Wednesday at 7:30 to host New England.

At Least There Was Drama

Though goals and real moments of quality were still in short supply, the Euro Quarterfinals at least delivered some drama.  Three of four matches went to extra time and two went to a penalty shoot out.  

Spain - Germany featured some crunching tackles, including one that knocked Pedri out of the match.  Germany leveled the match in the 89th minute but Spain got the game winner at 119 minutes.  The big flap though was the non-call against Marc Cucurella (see below) in extra time.   Netherlands rallied from an 0-1 deficit to take a 2-1 win after scoring at 70 and 76 minutes.  The game winner was an own goal, giving Ogee 10 for the tournament.  

England - Switzerland did not exactly sizzle but it was a tight contest.  The English have provided about three minutes of quality football so far but there they are in the semis after beating the Swiss on PKs.  One of those quality minutes is Saka's goal from the right side of the box that leveled the match in the 80th minute.  The quality and context make this week's YouTubeableMoment.  After a scoreless (and drab?) extra 30 minutes, England were clinical in the shootout, with five well-taken penalties.

Then we have France, who do not have a goal from the run of play by anyone on their roster (a PK and two own goals).  This time they dueled Portugal to a 0-0 draw over 120 minutes.  Les Bleus were also a perfect 5 of 5 in the shootout and they advanced to the semis.  Portugal were shut out for the third straight match; without factoring in injury time, they went the last 364 minutes of the tournament without scoring.  Probably a good thing that France and England don't face each other in the semis.

Handling Again

Where is he supposed to put his arm?

So German fans are up in arms (pun intended) because Anthony Taylor declined to call Marc Cucurella for handling in extra time of the 1-2 loss to Spain. Surprisingly I couldn't find good video of the play but here are some visuals to help.  Real time I did not think it was a handball.  Neither did Anthony Taylor or his VAR Stuart Atwell.  Neither did Mark Clattenburg who provided his opinion on the Fox telecast.  Further, pre-tournament advice given to the referees specifically referenced this type of play:

In his pre-tournament briefing, Roberto Rosetti, UEFA's head of referees, gave specific examples of handball penalties -- for and against. Rosetti showed a clip of the ball hitting a defender's arm from a shot on goal. The arm was in a vertical position, close to the body.

Rosetti said: "Not every touch of arm, hand is a penalty. We want to consider the movement of the players. Biomechanical movements. You know, this is a clear situation. This is never a penalty."

Yes, his arm is not glued to his side.  But he had been shuffling laterally to get to that spot.  Plus he was moving his arm back, away from the shot.  And, you have the proximity issue.  My last point on this is that Alexi Lalas asked how was that not a handball?  I rest my case.

Not A Coin Flip But Easier Than A Free Throw

Speaking of Lalas, in the interlude between extra time and penalty kicks, he never fails to remind us that this is not a coin flip and penalty kicks are a skill that players prepare for.  He has a point but I wonder what he would say if the NBA played five extra minutes of overtime, then went to free throws to decide the game.  Well, there is the defensive part of it.  True, but the NBA average for free throw shooting last season was 78.4% while the EPL converted PKs at a 89.6% rate.  That was a really high number so I looked at the four year average, which was 81.9%,

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

Dennis: Why is the Swiss coach leaving Xhaka in for the penalty shootout?

Steve: Because no one would dare take a PK for Granit

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Michael B: Who's got more support - England or Switzerland?

Steve: Well, you know the neutrals will be for Switzerland

Signs of Life at Subaru Park

Though not much.  There were about 20 minutes in each half where the Union found some ideas on offense and generated decent chances.  These were matched with periods in which the defense played like this was their first match together.  The excuses about injuries and personnel shortages fall flat when the problem is the back line of Wagner, Lowe, Elliott, Glesnes and Harriel, which has been together for several years now.  It's like they're not sure who's supposed to do what so we end up with uncovered runs and dangerous scoring chances.

At least they salvaged a point in the 0-0 with the Red Bulls but with the defensive breakdowns, they could have easily lost this one 2-0.  NY had the better xG at 2.8 - 2.5 but it felt much more lopsided in favor of the visitors; they had some wide open chances that they failed to put on frame and Union keeper Rick came up with some critical saves.  They remain in 14th place, though a playoff spot is only three points away.  Very interested in what happens in the upcoming transfer window.

An Exercise In Shithousery

When BFS Goalkeeping Expert Graham R picked me up for the Union match, he did point out that we could avoid the 90+ degree heat and high humidity at Subaru Park and watch some Copa American action.  Tempting but you gotta support the team.  I was interested enough in Brazil - Uruguay to dvr it for Sunday morning.  Should have known better.  Between the 41 fouls (26 for Uruguary), four yellows and one red, if there was any actual football, I missed it.  What a joke that was.  Uruguay won the penalty shoot out after a 0-0 draw and will take on Colombia in the semis.  Argentina and Canada, who also both advanced on penalties, is the other semi.

Football Widow

BFS Artistic Director Laura O has noted that between the Euros and Copa America, it has been hard to get my attention.  She sends this video along to show exactly how tough it has been.

So we have Spain - France at 3 pm Tuesday and England - Netherlands at 3 pm Wednesday.  After the last experience I have my doubts about Copa America but they have Argentina - Canada at 8 pm Tuesday and Uruguay - Colombia at 8 pm on Wednesday.  

EPL kicks off in a little more than five weeks.

Eesh

Mediocrity finally cost a few teams their chance to win the Euros, though some (many?) continue on despite pedestrian performances.  Mediocrity would be a big step up for the USMNT and the Union.

Quality Dispensed With An Eye Dropper

The Round of 16 did not, in the main, bring out the best in most of the teams.  Three sides - France, England and Portugal - were less than impressive in advancing.  England putzed around against Slovakia until five minutes into stoppage time and only Bellingham's bicycle kick (this week's YouTubeableMoment) got them to extra time.  Another brief moment of quality early in extra time (Toney to Kane) was enough for England to advance.  Southgate appears reluctant to tinker too much with the line up but how long can they keep playing like this?

Thanks to our AirBnB hostess allowing for a late check-out time and the 1 pm flight out of Eugene for BFS Track and Field Correspondent Jack W, I did get to see Belgium - France.  I say that like it's a good thing but given the quality of the match, maybe not.  Neither side showed very much.  Verthonghen's own goal in the 85th minute is the reason France move on. Hard to feel sorry for Belgium as they showed nothing in this tournament.

Portugal?  They went 0-0 with Slovenia for 120 minutes and advanced on PKs.  Ronaldo could have won it extra time but Obiak saved his PK.

Not Natural Enough; Andersen called for handling

Even Germany's win wasn't all that impressive. Joachim Andersen scored for Denmark in the 50th minute but the goal was ruled out by VAR, correctly, for offside.  Minutes later Andersen got called for handling in the box, again with VAR's assistance, and Havertz dispatched the PK.  Initially I thought the call was harsh but upon further review, think that Michael Oliver got it right.  The key for me is which arm is extended.  If you are running and your right leg is leading, it's natural for your left arm to be outstretched.  On the other hand, if you are merely turning your body, then having the right arm up and extended is making yourself bigger. There's more on the call below.  Germany did add another so probably not fair to denigrate their win too much.

Was Switzerland's 2-0 win over Italy the result of Italian indifference or Swiss brilliance?  Sometimes it's both.

Advancing on Merit?

A few others did win decisively.  Netherlands finally found their game and pasted Romania 3-0.  Spain scored five goals in their 4-1 win over Georgia.  After surrendering an early own goal, they had little trouble dispatching the surprise entrant in the knockout phase.  And Austria-Turkiye was a treat as both sides put up better efforts than several of the other countries that are advancing.  Turkiye came away with a hard fought 2-1 win.

Smart Balls

Just make sure the batteries are charged

Michael Oliver had two decisions to make in the handling case discussed above.  One of them, whether Andersen actually touched the ball, was made easier by the new technology incorporated into Fussballliebe, the Official Match Ball for UEFA EURO 2024.  As detailed here, the technology detects every touch of the ball.  In the picture above, you can see the graph that tells Oliver that Andersen had touched the ball.

Ojee A Lock to Win the Golden Boot

With nine own goals so far, no player is going to match that tally.  He may also lead France in scoring too.  They have a lone goal from Mbappe to go with the Wober own goal from Austria and Vertonghen's misfortune from Belgium.

Another Bite At the Cherry for Another Bite At the Cherry

We have always been confused by the British version of this metaphor.  How do you not finish the cherry in one bite?  Why is there a need for a second bite?  BFS Statistical Advisor Brenna C offers a possible explanation.  What if you missed completely in your first attempt?  Okay, that makes a little more sense.  Except how did you miss the whole thing in the first place?  I guess you might have dropped it or tried to toss it in your mouth and missed.  

Does Berhalter Survive?

With a 1-0 loss to Uruguay, the USMNT uncermoniously bowed out of Copa America.  Actually, even a draw wouldn't have been enough as Jamaica beat Bolivia. I saw very little of the action so I can't comment on how they played.  But clearly, not advancing out of group that included Uruguary, Jamaica (um, you mean Panama but the point is still the same) and Bolivia has to be viewed as a failure.  Is it the quality of players, the mix of players, the tactics?  I don't know.  Unfortunately, for national teams, there are no transfer windows to bolster or revamp the roster; you work with the players you have.  

Did Klopp really say he was all ears about the USMNT position?

Naturally, this means the focus turns to the manager and there are calls for Greg Berhalter to be sacked. Incredibly, as explained here, Jurgen Klopp might actually be a candidate for the job. That seems so farfetched but earlier this year Klopp did say the USMNT position is one that he would consider.

As for the rest of the tournament, quarterfinals are this weekend. Argentina got past Ecuador but only on PKs.  Maybe check out Uruguay - Brazil Saturday at 9 pm on FS1.  Semis are 7/9-10 and the final is Sunday 7/14.  Haven't had the bandwidth to follow Copa America too much given the Euros and the Olympic Trials but maybe have a chance now.

Maybe Apple Has Done Me A Favor

MLS Season Pass has meant that I have not watched the recent Union debacles live and only have to skim through the lowlights.  Wednesday's performance set a new low, as they coughed up a 3-1 lead.  And by "cough up" I don't mean they got a draw.  Nope, they surrendered three goals in 10 minutes, inclouding the game loser at 90+1 minutes, and got nothing from the match.  This is the first time in franchise history they have lost five straight and they now sit 14th in the table.

I haven't seen enough of these matches to have a sense of what's wrong.  Injuries and national team call-ups haven't helped, especially with respect to the bench and in-game changes.  You would think hope that the Union will be active when the MLS Secondary Transfer Window opens on 7/18 and runs to 8/14.  

Tantalizing Matchups - On Paper Anyway

Here's the line up for the Euro quarterfinals:

Spain vs Germany - Friday at noon
Portugal vs France - Friday at 3 pm
England vs Switzerland - Saturday at noon
Netherlands vs Turkiye - Saturday at 3 pm

All are on Fox.  They all look like great contests and maybe we'll see more quality as we get closer to the final.

The Union host the Harrison Pink Cows on Saturday at 7:30.  No tickets and MLS Season Pass mean I won't be able to see this one live.  Maybe this is a good thing?