Better Than Last Week

Except for the Union, a pretty good set of results for the weekend.

The Magic Elixir

There truly is no better medicine for what ails an EPL team than playing Sheffield United.  Poor sequence of results?  Front line in a scoring drought?  Get yourself a fixture with the Blades and soon you'll be feeling like a million bucks or pounds or euros or whatever currency they use in England.

Isak got two more at home and is just two behind Haaland
in the race for the Golden Boot (Photo:Getty Images)

Newcastle were the latest to benefit from that gift of the schedule makers.  Yeah, they gave up the first goal, still looked a bit listless and the score was 1-1 at halftime.  For some unknown reason, I remained optimistic, thinkin they were going to be just fine.  And indeed they were, scoring four second half goals for an easy 5-1 win.  That gives them 13-1 aggregate score over the two contests with Sheffield United this year.  

Results elsewhere were uniformly helpful.  Man United could only draw 1-1 with Burnley, at home no less, so we gained two points on them.  West Ham surprising grabbed a point against Liverpool but it still means they dropped two on Newcastle.  Chelsea also drew so we put another two points between the Blues and us.  Brighton lost and are now nine points back.  The flip side of that is Bournemouth are now just five points back.  Still, after the loss to Palace, this week put Europe back on the agenda.

Fates Were Sealed

The weekend's results also settled some things, mostly in the relegation battle.  Sheffield United's loss to Newcastle means they are going back down to the Championship Division.  Everyone above Nottingman Forest are now guaranteed to stay up (looking mostly at you Everton).  So the relegation fight is now between Nottingham Forest, Luton Town and Burnley.  

Aston Villa cannot win the title but can also finish no worse than fifth.  Sunday was St. Totteringham's Day, as for the second straight year, Tottenham will finish behind Arsenal.  In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.  Man United will finish no higher than 5th.  Everyone from 13th on down is out of Europe, as we now know that Italy and Germany will get the additional Champions League berths for next year.

[Post publication I watched Chelsea's 2-0 win over Tottenham.  That helped Villa's chances for fourth but did put the Blues just two points behind Newcastle.]

VAR Fainting Couch Is Getting Crowded Again

Oh FFS. In the 95th minute against Aston Villa, Chelsea had looked to score the game winner, completing an improbable comeback from 0-2 down.   You can see the play here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The announcers knew it was a foul.  I think everybody not connected with Chelsea knew it was a foul.  Apparently referee Craig Pawson did not.  VAR Chris Cavanaugh sent Pawson to the monitor, who needed little time to see his error.  No goal and the match ends in a draw.

Cue the outrage.  Check out this from Pochettino:

"Me and you and everyone in the stadium watching the game, they didn't see a foul on the pitch and then VAR changed the decision of the referee. For me that was a normal challenge. The decision was there and that's it," Pochettino told broadcaster TNT following the 2-2 draw.

"For me, it damaged a little bit the Premier League and English [football]. If we want to be the best league in the world it should be protecting the spectacle and the decision ... [it] damaged myself, damaged my team, my players, the fans," he added.

Uh, Poch, your argument is damaged somewhat by the fact that both announcers called it a foul the moment it happened.  In their weekly review of VAR decisions (available here), ESPN sees it as pretty cut and dried too; 

Yet it's hard to see how the VAR could ignore this level of contact, and it should have been given on field by referee Craig Pawson. Even though he had a clear view of the incident, his judgement was still incorrect -- so this isn't re-refereeing the game.

Chelsea would not have been in that situation in the first place had they taken advantage of their scoring opportunities (looking at you Nicholas Jackson).  For the year, Chelsea have the 5th highest negative differential between actual goals and xG.  Work on finishing not whining.

Nottingham Forest Complain Again

After their 0-2 loss at home to Man City, Forest management noted that they had warned PGMOL, that the fourth official assigned to the match - Tom Bramall - had once visited Manchester and said "he had a real good time."  In comments after the match on X, Forest officials said "we warned you this was a problem", noting the Bramall had caused Forest striker Chris Wood to miss two clear cut scoring chances. 

Some or all of the above may not be true.

Union No Longer Unbeaten

So apparently my not watching the Union has nothing to do with their performance.  I missed both Saturday and Tuesday and they lost both.  Saturday was a 1-2 loss to Real Salt Lake in which the U surrendered the winning goal in the 89th minute.  On Tuesday, they fell behind Seattle 0-3 in the first half.  They rallied with two in the second half but could not get the equalizer.  

 So now the U sit seventh, although they do have a game in hand.  

Limited Viewing

Going to be a tough weekend as I will be in Lewisburg for a track team reunion Thursday through Saturday, then recording a concert in Aston on Sunday. Hoping I can get to see one or two matches on replay after everybody's gone to bed.

Not that the fixtures are all that enticing but there is some good stuff.  Liverpool vs Tottenham at 11:30 on Sunday looks to be the best.  Nottingham Forest get to play Sheffield United, a great chance for three points; that's Saturday at 10 am on USA.  Chelsea -West Ham at 9 on Sunday has implications for the European spots.

The title contenders have what look like winnable matches - Arsenal host Bournemouth (7:30 Saturday on USA) and Man City have Wolves at home (the NBC feature match at 12:30 on Saturday).

Newcastle have a great chance to solidify their hopes for Europe as they play Burnley (10 am Saturday on Peacock).  Similarly, Aston Villa can tighten their hold on 4th as they travel to face Brighton on Sunday at 9.

The weekend is bookended with a Friday match between Luton and Everton and a Monday contest between Crystal Palace and Man United.  In the one match with no implications, Brentford play Fulham at 10 am Saturday.

Champions League semi-final second legs are mid-week with all to play for.  PSG host Dortmund on Tuesday, trailing 0-1.  Bayern are at Real Madrid on Wednesday with the score all even at 2-2.  Aston Villa, after a poor effort on Thursday against Olympiacos, are looking at 4-2 deficit for the second leg of that Europa Conference League semi. 

The Union have an early six-pointer against 8th place DC United.  That's at 7:30 Saturday on "free" Apple.

Sigh, all this soccer but limited opportunities to watch.

Never Mind About Those Passports

Newcastle pissed away weeks of good work with an awful 90 minutes at Selhurst Park.   Coventry nearly made FA Cup history.  Nottingham Forest set a new sour record for sour grapes.

Europe? Europe? (apologies to Jim Mora)

After a run of strong performances, Newcastle laid an egg in an 2-0 loss to Crystal Palace.  The Magpies were outplayed in every phase of the game.  Notably, they managed just two tepid shots on goal, both very late in the contest.  Palace were physically all over Newcastle, playing like a side that wanted to put a few miles between themselves and relegation.  I can't remember so many passes being smothered at the source.  What is difficult to understand is that this was the same lineup and formation that dismantled Tottenham 4-0 just 10 days ago.  

Europe may not be totally gone but another performance like that one and it is.

Ya Done Good, Bruno

We do pick on Bruno Guimaraes a lot here but we did fail to note that after picking up his 9th yellow card on January 13th, he went 11 matches without picking up a 10th.  The importance of that, of course, is that another yellow in any of those contests would have meant a two game suspension.  Apparently he can exercise self-control

No Quad Triple Double For You

What looked like a possible big haul of trophies for Liverpool has evaporated in a spring of disappointment.  The FA Cup hopes were dashed by Man United.  A possible Europa League championship went bye-bye after a terrible home performance against Atalanta.  And now the EPL title seems to be a long shot after losses to Crystal Palace and more recently to Everton.  Three points down with four games to play doesn't sound outrageous except for the way they have been playing in the last few weeks.

The Sourest of Sour Grapes

Everybody complains about refereeing but Nottingham Forest took it to a new low this week.  To set the scene, Forest were playing Everton on Saturday.  Prior to the match the standings had Everton 16th with 27 points, Forest 17th with 26 and Luton Town 18th with 25.

The fun actually started mid-week, as Nottingham warning the PGMOL that the VAR for the match - Stuart Attwell - was a supporter of relegation rival Luton and that he shouldn't be assigned to the game.  Fuel was added to the fire when there were three incidents in the match where no penalty was called on the pitch and VAR declined to send match referee Anthony Taylor to the monitor.  This of course amplified the outrage, with Nottingham officials now yelling "we told you so and look what happened."  Details can be had here from ESPN in their weekly review of VAR.

Much to unpack here.  First, I haven't seen anybody point out that Everton, at least at the time, was also a relegation rival with Luton.  What was Stuart Attwell's play here?  Manipulate the calls to ensure a draw so neither team got three points?  I guess with Everton two points ahead and Forest only one point ahead, maybe it was to ensure a Everton win.  Of course, I kid on all points.  

As to the three calls themselves, only one complaint holds any water.  It's not clear that Reyna was even fouled so the "clear and obvious error" threshold wasn't met.  On the Young handling, I thought proximity, the fact that Young had just arrived to that position (as in his arms would still be moving) and that his arm was barely at 45 degrees and somewhat behind his body ruled out VAR intervention as well.  The possible foul on Hudson-Odoi?  Taylor signalled that he thought Young had gotten the ball.  The replay suggested he did not.  In that situation, I would think Attwell should ask Taylor what he saw and if he says Young got the ball, then Attwell needs to send him to the monitor.  Okay, bad call there.

Boo effing hoo.  Wasn't the first time and it won't be the last time. The ESPN article points out that Forest are a net beneficiary this year of bad calls.  Fortunately, Forest's handling of this has drawn near universal condemnation and most are expected fines to be levied.   Also, note in the ESPN article that there is occasionally attention to the issue of referees having a link to certain clubs.  Dennis points out that it is virtually impossible that an English referee didn't grow up supporting a team.  But this much focus seems to be a rare circumstance.

The One That Got Away

The Saturday FA Cup semifinal - a 1-0 win for Man City over Chelsea - did little to add to the legacy of the magic of the competition.  On the other hand, Sunday's semi between Coventry and Man United did. Reporting the result, a 3-3 draw in which Man United advanced on PKs, hardly does the the match justice.  

Coventry were this close to an FA Cup Final

Coventry, who sit 8th in the Championship (i.e. nominally 28th ranked in English football) were serious underdogs to Man United, who at the time were 7th in the first tier.  And the match proceeded much as you would expect, with United slowly building a 3-0 lead.  Then, somehow, it wasn't a done deal.  Coventry scored in the 71st minute, then again in the the 79th minute.  They completed the improbable comeback with a PK in the 95th minute.  Okay, on to extra time, where United would surely get their act together and dispatch this pesky second tier side.  Except that didn't happen.  And please don't call me Shirley.  In the 121st minute, Coventry scored on great counter attack.  The whole English football world, excepting Man United fans, went nuts.  Except the goal did not withstand VAR review, as Wright was adjudged to be marginally offside.  We make the play this week's YouTubeableMoment.

So it was on to PKs.  Rasmus Hojlund with kick to make the final 4-2 on PKs.  As soon as struck it, Hojlund raced to the stands, celebrating and no doubt expecting he would soon be mobbed by his teammates.  He might still be waiting.  Likely embarrassed that the match had even gotten to that point, the Man United players were slinking towards the sideline.  

Coventry - Man City would probably have been a terrible final but I doubt their fans would care.  Another Manchester derby may not be that much better, unless maybe United feel like they're trying to save ten Hag's job.  

Yes, That Was Vaseline

Watching a match a few weeks, Dennis and I both saw Man United keeper Andre Onana smear what looked like Vaseline on his goalie gloves.  Made no sense to either of us.  It's a lubricant.  Wouldn't it make the ball harder to hold on to?

BFS Artistic Director Laura O saw an article in The Athletic confirming that is was indeed Vaseline. The key paragraph:

 In the months since, I’ve done some research and learned the intricacies of why it’s effective. My understanding is that latex is a porous material, so over time, when the palm of the glove breaks down, it allows dirt and water to flood the latex and you end up losing grip. What Vaseline does is moisturise the latex of the gloves while also acting as a repellent to water and grime from covering the glove, allowing the latex to do the job it’s designed to do: grip the ball.

Better living through science.

And More Games

We have a full slate for the weekend, a random midweek London derby and European semi finals. At this point, it's difficult to have an EPL game that doesn't have implications for the league title, spots in next year's European competitions or relegation.  Wait, looks like Fulham - Crystal Palace might qualify; they both look safe from relegation and Europe.  Too bad because that might be the most competitive match of the weekend.  See, just because the game has "implications" doesn't mean it's going to be a good one.  

Clerking the Penn Relays on Saturday so might not get to much of the action.  A 7:30 match wtih West Ham vs Liverpool (USA).  Four at 10.  We'd be taking in Newcastle Sheffield United if we were home.  Hark to pick a great choice for the neutral.  Wolves - Luton Town? Man United - Burnley.  Feature 12:30 match is 15th place Brentford vs 16th place Everton.  There's a Saturday afternoon special with Aston Villa hosting Chelsea.  Actually that might be the best of the day.

North London derby with Tottenham hosting Arsenal 9 am Sunday. That one should be good as both sides have a lot to play for.  There's also Bournemouth Brighton.  At 11:30 Nottingham Forest might really have something to complain about as they host Man City.  Thern there's another random Thursday London derby between Chelsea - Spurs.

Champions League and all the other Europe stuff is back.  Tuesday is Bayern Real Madrid and Wednesday is Dortmund PSG.  On Thursday Aston Villa are hosts for the first leg of their ECL semi with Olympiacos.

And there's a Union match at Subaru Park vs Real Salt Lake at 7:30 Saturday.  It's behind the double pay wall of Apple TV plus MLS Season Pass.  Maybe radio again for me.

Again, I know I missed stuff but finals must be graded.

Don't Let the Passports Expire

Good results for the BFS home sides paired with helpful outcomes in other matches made for a good weekend.

Europe is Not Out of the Question

Isak makes it 3-0

Newcastle asserted themselves early and often against Spurs and were rewarded with a 4-0 win that can basically be taken at face value.  You know it's going well when they're still showing the replay of the first goal while your team is scoring again.  As seen in this week's YouTubeableMoment, they cut away from the replay barely in time to get back to live action to see Gordon bearing down on Vicario for the second goal.

I will confess that I was skeptical about Howe's decision to go with a back five, especially as it meant Dan Burn would be covering Brandon Johnson, which is about like matching me up with Usain Bolt.  To be fair, the wingbacks in the formation were Jacob Murphy and Elliot Anderson, both of whom can spark the offense.  In fact, the stats reveal how much a counterattacking master class this was; with only 27% of possession, the Magpies still outshot Spurs 18-11 and shots on target were 5-2.

Matched up with Man United's 2-2 draw with Bournemouth and West Ham's 0-2 loss to Fulham, Newcastle finished the weekend in 6th, which would mean a Europa League berth.  Obviously a long way to go but a spot in Europe is definitely in play.  

In other news, Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL.

City Again?

Sigh.  While Man City were taking care of business with a 5-1 win over Luton Town, Liverpool and Arsenal were dropping points.  Liverpool looked lost falling 0-1 at home to Crystal Palace. Their xG was 2.74; I vaguely remember some good saves from Dean Henderson but I think a big part of this was poor finishing.  As for Arsenal, who fell to Aston Villa, astute readers might recall that I said the Villa side is rarely overmatched against any team and that the match could be fun.  Indeed it was - at least for Villa fans.  I didn't see the match and xG suggests Arsenal might have merited a draw.  Regardless, the score still reads 2-0 favor Villa.

So, City now have a two point lead and with both Arsenal and Liverpool looking shaky, this thing might be over.

You Know It's Not Your Night Year When...

You give up an own goal like this.  Burnley were about 15 minutes from grabbing all three points in a home match.  Instead, they only get one and are still six points from safety.

Or maybe when a fight breaks out over who's going to take the PK as happened during Chelsea's mauling of Everton.  Seen here, the incident maybe offers some explanation for Chelsea's disappointing season.

Mass Exit?

The EPL entered the quarterfinals of the three European competitions with five sides still alive.  When the dust settled, all but one were gone.  Man City gave up an early goal to Real Madrid, spent the rest of the match dominating play, got a late goal to send it to extra time but eventually lost on PKs.  City owned the stat sheet with shots 33-8,  shots on target 9-3 and corners 18-1; xG was closer, at 2.74-1.37.  No matter, they are done.  Arsenal were surprisingly tepid despite entering the second leg even with Bayern at 2-2.  The Gunners offered little in the way of offense and fell 1-0.  

Europa League was more of the same.  Liverpool only managed one goal against Atalanta and departed 1-3 on aggregate.  West Ham were briefly within a goal of Leverkusen but eventually went down 1-3 on aggregate.

Now the lone EPL representative is Aston Villa.  Frankly, they did not distinguish themselves against LOSC, giving up their first leg one goal lead and falling behind 3-2 on aggregate.  Only an 87th minute goal from Matty Cash got them to extra time and a PK shootout.  Emi Martinez was there to deny the French again as he saved two PKs and Villa advanced 4-3.

Did You Know?

Martinez in trouble with the ref - who would have guessed?

During the penalty shoot-out between Aston Villa and LOSC, Emi Martinez got a yellow because the referee felt he was taunting the home fans (you're shocked right?).  Martinez had been booked earlier for time wasting.  But he was not sent off because of the little-known clause in Law 10 which states:

warnings and cautions issued to players and team officials during the match are not carried forward into penalties (penalty shoot-out).

Very pleased that I knew that rule. 

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place But Didn't

Steve (upon switching over to Man City match for extra time): Where's Haaland?

Dennis: Northeast of Belgium

Better If I Don't Follow?

Harriel launches the throw that will turn into the equalizer
This is NOT a foul throw-in as his lead foot is still touching the line
Note that the AR is watching

For the second straight week, I was unable to take in the Union match and for the second straight week, they brought home an unexpected result.  Down 2-0 to Atlanta at their Little Shop of Horrors called Mercedes-Benz Stadium, they got goals in rapid succession from Uhre and Wagner.  Check out the equalizer here, a set-piece from a throw-in.  They even put another in the net only to see it ruled out for offside.  The stats say maybe a little lucky here but not by much; xG was 2.0-1.4 favor Atlanta. Still undefeated, the Union are in 3rd with a game in hand on second place Red Bulls and two games in hand on first place Miami.  Gee, maybe I should be watching them?

It's Apple's Fault

Late in the match with Atlanta, Uhre put a shot past Guzan for what would have been a 3-2 lead. On the field, Kathryn Nesbitt signaled offside. You can see the play here, though you have to fast forward to 5:23.  Since there was a goal it did go to VAR.  Except they have no tools to seriously review the call.  All they had was a camera angle that wasn't lined up with the last defender; in other words it was inconclusive so the call stood.  If you do go to the video, you'll see Nesbitt sprinting down the touchline, tracking with the next-to-last defender.  In other words, she was in position to make the call.  Nesbitt is also highly experienced, including covering some World Cup matches.  Thus, as the MLS handles offside and VAR, hard to argue with the call.

But that does beg the question as to whether MLS can do better on this issue.  Their practice stands in stark contrast to the fully automated systems in the major competitions or the semi-automated system used by the EPL (you know the blue, green and red lines?).  These systems assess the play down to the defender's toe nails, although some of the accuracy is phony because it depends on a somewhat subjective decision as to the exact moment the ball was struck.  Even with that weakness, I prefer the automated systems but understand that some feel it's overkill.

But wait, there is another option.  Jonathan Tannenwald notes:

If you really want to complain about something, take note that MLS runs into this problem too often. Curtin spent a heap of time talking about it on Sunday, but he was right on one point: Apple has the money to pay for extra cameras closer to the end line to fix the problem. 

It wouldn’t be “a 10-dollar camera” as Curtin jokingly claimed — but it can be done. And if it also takes a little construction work at some stadiums to install more camera decks, so be it.

I knew that somehow Apple was part of the problem.  We've said it more than once on this blog; when you watch an Apple/MLS broadcast you can't help but notice that the camera coverage simply isn't as good as EPL or other leagues.  

FA Cup Weekend

The weekend schedule is a little abbreviated but they make up for it with some weekday matches.  As for the FA Cup, Man City will play Chelsea at 12:30 on Saturday while Man United will play Coventry at 10:30 on Sunday.  Hmm, one of these is not like the others.  Those matches are on ESPN+.

Saturday is light on EPL action but does have a relegation special - Sheffield United hosting Burnley at 10 am on Peacock.  The TV game at 10 am on USA is Luton Town versus Brentford, which is sort of relegation related, though Brentford gave themselves some breathing room with a win last weekend over Sheffield United.  After the FA Cup match, you can watch Wolves-Arsenal at 2:30 on USA.

Sunday has a decent card, starting off with Everton-Nottingham Forest at 8:30 on USA.  They are 16th and 17th in the table, still way too close to the drop zone.  There are also games at 10 and 11:30, which sharp-eyed readers will note conflict with the FA Cup semi at 10:30.  Seems like an MLS move to me.

Six mid-week matches spread out over Tuesday - Thursday.  The Arsenal-Chelsea London derby on Tuesday (on USA) isn't as compelling as usual but does offer the Blues a chance to play spoiler in the title race.  Four more on Wednesday.  Since you never know with a derby, neutrals might do best with Everton - Liverpool.  We'll be taking in Crystal Palace - Newcastle; surprisingly that's the USA choice over the Merseyside Derby.  Aston Villa also face Bournemouth at the same time, as will Man United and Sheffield United.  Thursday has Brighton - Man City.  I didn't say they were all exciting matchups.

The Union are off this week so I won't have a chance to miss them.  

Is This Not Why You Are Here?

apologies to Maximus

Improbably road wins for Newcastle and the Union.  Entertaining Champions League matches.  Fun week.

Phire the Phucking Physio

Newcastle's season in one picture

We had low expectations for the trip to Fulham so the 1-0 win was a pleasant surprise.  In truth, a draw probably would have been the fairest result here.  Shots, shots on goal and xG were basically equal.  The difference was this shot from Bruno Guimaraes.  Nice behind the back pass by Barnes (?) but we also wonder if the keeper could have done better.

Of course, these three points did not come without a cost.  Joe Willock went down late in the first half and had to be replaced.  He's suffering from a continuing achilles heel problem and no return date was provided.  Teenager Lewis Hall also left late in the second half but that appeared to be a due to leg cramps.  Except aren't leg cramps somewhat preventable with proper training and nutrition?  Just sayin'.

Not Even A Partial Eclipse

This week's referee call under the microscope comes to us from the Wolves - West Ham contest.  With Wolves down 1-2 late, Max Kilman had appeared to level the match with a brilliant header.  Ruled a goal on the field, VAR told Tony Harrington to go to the monitor, at which point he changed his call to offside. You can see the play here.  No doubt that Chirewa is in an offside position.  He doesn't touch the ball but is he doing one of the following:

• - preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or

  - challenging an opponent for the ball or

  - clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or

  - making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

The only option here is the first one and that was the official explanation.  The ESPN weekly review was satisfied, citing previous, "similar," incidences that were called offside.  And a number of "experts" lined up behind that opinion.

There's no eclipse of the ball here

I am not one of them.  Neither is former referee Mark Clattenberg.  And I will argue that the "similiar" incidences chosen by the pro-offside aren't really similar.  They involve the player physically preventing the keeper from playing the ball or actually blocking his vision.  Neither happened in this case.  Check out the picture to the left.  Fabianski certainly seems to have his focus clearly on the ball.  Chirewa is not obstructing his line of vision.  That may be because Fabianski is 6'3" while Chirewa is 5'11".   The requirement for interfering with an opponent was not met.  I'm not willing to call it the worst decision of the year but I don't think the supposed clear and obvious error threshold for VAR was met here.  

Et Two Bruno

99.99% chance he's not hurt (Photo: AFP)

More than once in this space I have lamented the antics of Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes - the
overacting on fouls, the whining, the quick temper.  While watching the enormously entertaining 2-2 Man United -Liverpool draw, the performance of Bruno Fernandes reminded me that Guimaraes isn't the only annoying Bruno out there.  All the same annoying traits.  They're both excellent players who don't need that act. I asked Dennis who was worse and he said "Fernandes but only because Guimaraes hasn't been in the league long enough. Another year and it will be a tie."

When Harry Met Salah

Not Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal (photo: Reuters)

Bonus points to Graeme Le Saux for his description of the collision between Harry Maguire and Mo Salah.  Jon Champion could only groan in response.

Meanwhile...

Arsenal win over Brighton combined with Liverpool draw puts the Gunners back on top on goal differential.  Spurs win over Nottingham Forest combined with Aston Villa draw with Brentford means Tottenham are now fourth, also on goal differential though they also have a game in hand.  

At the other end of the table, just five points separate Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace in the struggle to avoid the last relegation spot.

Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel?

Dennis sends along this article on the conversion rate of PKs in the EPL. This year the success rate is 88.5%, the highest in EPL history.  Looking at the trend line, the rate has gone from about 74% in 93-94 to just over 80% today.  The graph below shows the change.

Source: Jonathan Manual/Data Analyst/Opta

Three theories advanced for the increase are the rule change requiring keeper to have at least one foot on the line when the kick is taken, use of VAR to identify keeper infractions, and an increase in the number of left-footed kickers taking the PKs.  

The View from Europe

Excellent Champions League action in all four of the first leg of the quarterfinal series.  Arsenal-Bayern drew 2-2 and Real Madrid - Man City were 3-3.  Atletico have a 2-1 lead on Dortmund while Barcelona bring a 3-2 lead over PSG to the second leg.  In other words, all to play for.

The EPL sides fared much less well in Europa League with Liverpool going down - at home - to Atalanta 0-3, while West Ham lost 2-0 on the road at Leverkusen.  Aston Villa did a bit better, taking a 2-1 win over LOSC in their Europa Conference League match.  

If The Union Win and I Don't Watch, Do They Get Three Points?

Most definitely.  I could only take in the highlights of the Union's unlikely 2-1 win over Nashville.  This would have been fine to enjoy live, as the Union got the game winner in the 90th minute on a header from Gazdag off a McGlynn corner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The delivery from McGlynn was superb.  How was Gazdag so wide open?  He barely moved on the play.  Having only seen the highlights, I can only go by the stats - which look basically even; the U did have a better xG at 1.8 versus 1.3.  I also saw some continued fine goalkeeping from backup Oliver Semmle.  

Hmm, the U are the only undefeated team left in MLS.  They sit second in the East, two points behind the New Jersey Red Cows with a game in hand.  Carranza and Gazdag are scoring.  Quinn Sullivan is wreaking havoc, by which I mean creating chances.  Blake has missed several matches but Semmle has done well as his replacement.  Wait, it's the hope that kills you.

Keep Plugging Away

Antoher full slate of EPL plus second legs of all the Europe competition quarter finals.  

I won't suggest this is the greatest set of fixtures for the EPL.  Newcastle host Spurs at 7:30 on Saturday on USA and that is one of the top choices for the weekend.  Opta has that as really close at 36/27/37; that feels a little light on the Spurs' chances to me.  Four matches at 10 am, none will get the blood going.  We'll likely go with Brentford - Sheffield United on Peacock given the relegation implications. The 12:30 "feature" match is Bournemouth - Man United, which could mean an early switch over to the Masters. 

Though Opta sees Arsenal as solid favorites, we're interested to see how Aston Villa do in this match (11:30 Sunday); they are rarely overmatched against any team so this could be fun.  

Definitely mark your calendars for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the second legs of the Champions League quarterfinals.  Barcelona - PSG (Tuesday) and Man City - Real Madrid (Wednesday) are on CBS so you can watch live or DVR.  The other matches are on Paramount Plus.

The Union will head to Atlanta for a Sunday 2:30 match.  This one is on Fox. Suck it Apple!

The Rosie Perez School of Football Punditry

According to Ms Perez, the results may not be what you think.  She expounds on her theory here.  Let's look at this week's results applying those concepts.

Sometimes When You Win, You Actually Lose

We present as Exhibit A, Newcastle's improbable 4-3 decision over West Ham.  Sure, it was exciting to see them rally from a 3-1 deficit and we really needed the points.  The game winner from Harvey Barnes - seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment - was clinical.  Just awesome in front of the 52,000 at St. James' Park.  But the cost?  Three more serious injuries.  Lacelles is out with ACL, Almiron left with a knee problem and Livramento hurt his ankle.  In the 1-1 draw with Everton on Tuesday, teenager Lewis Hall went out with a rib injury.  So we got as many points as injuries in the two matches.   

"I punched something."  Seems like a fair reaction of Nottingham
 Forest manager Nuno Espirito Santo to the points deduction.
Photograph: Mike Egerton/PA

Exhibit B might be Nottingham Forest.  They got a 3-1 win over Fulham to go with a 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace yet found themselves with the same number of points they began the week with thanks to a four point deduction for breach of profitability and sustainability rules.  The Guardian provides details here.  Of course Nottingham have appealed so there will be uncertainty hanging over the relegation fight until that is resolved.    

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Win

Best example of this is Burnley's 2-2 draw with Chelsea.  Late in the first half, Chelsea were awarded generous PK on what Dennis and I don't even think is a foul; you can judge for yourself here (should open to 6:39).  What's more, Darren England gave Assignon a yellow, his second of the match.  Needless to say, if you don't think it's a foul then it's certainly not a yellow.  But there it was and Palmer converted the PK.  Down a goal and down a man, things did not look good for the Clarets.  An early second half goal levelled things but a second Chelsea goal at 78 minutes looked like the end.  Then O'Shea provided a stunning equalizer in the 81st minute and Burnley held on for the draw, which under the circumstances had to feel like a win.

We'll include Fulham in this category as well after their come-from-behind 3-3 draw with Sheffield United.  The sides made up for a slow first half as Sheffield built up a 3-1 lead by the 70th minute.  The Blades had looked to extend the lead to 4-1 but had a goal chalked off for offsides in the 84th minute.  Turned out they really needed that as Fulham poured in two goals in the closing minutes.  

Sometimes When You Tie, You Actually Lose

Well, Exhibits A and B are Chelsea and Sheffield United as explained in the previous section.  Dropping two points like that had to be devastating for Sheffield United, who are 10 points adrift of safety.  

We will add Exhibit C, Man United's 1-1 draw with Brentford.  No doubt the Bees are tough at home. Man United couldn't break through until Mason Mount got what surely looked like a game winner in the 96th minute.  Nope, Ajer got the equalizer for Brentford in the 99th minute seen here.  The point is useful for Brentford to move farther away from relegation but the dropped two points really hurt Man United in their effort to catch Spurs in fifth.

Sometimes When You Lose, You Actually Win

Luton Town lost to Spurs but briefly moved out of the relegation zone because Nottingham Forest took a four point deduction for violation for FFP regulations.  But after a 2-0 loss on Wednesday to Arsenal, we are forced to conclude that sometimes a loss is a loss.  They are now three points from safety even after the Nottingham Forest point deduction.  

Sometimes When You Win, You Actually Tie

Not sure about this one

The pitch at Spurs Stadium prior to Luton Town match
Photo:Michael B

Rosie didn't have this category but sometimes when you win, you win.  Examples include Aston Villa (2-0 over Wolves), Spurs (2-1 over Luton Town) and Liverpool (2-1 over Brighton).  Also, sometimes when you tie, you tie.  Prime example there would be the 0-0 between Man City and Arsenal, though some might suggest that the Gunners would be the happier side with that result.   

Our point - and Rosie's - is that sometimes you have to look beyond the scoreline.

An American in England

Long-time BFS readers will remember
Simon (r), who again outdid himself with 
hospitality for American football fans

The Americans got a great welcome in London

It wasn't the Five Guys from the USA, just Michael B and his wife Susan, but they represented us well.  Some things were quite similar to that awesome trip in 2016 - taking in some football matches (Norwich vs Plymouth and Spurs vs Luton Town), some awesome hosting by Simon, walking around cool English towns, and of course taking in multiple pints of ale and cider.  As far as we know, Michael drove on the left side of the road without incident and as of this writing, has not received any tickets.    

Union Still Unbeaten

Mostly encouraging signs with the Union 2-0 win over Minnesota on Saturday. Countless forays down the right side by Quinn Sullivan made it seem like we dominated the Loons, even though the match was 1-0 for the majority of the time.  They were a couple of defensive breakdowns and I do remember a key save from Blake.  Minnesota did have more possession but much of it didn't feel that dangerous.  Frustrating part was probably the number of crosses that went into and then through the box untouched; we need to see this opportunities turned into shots.  The other bummer was Blake eventually having to leave with a concussion.  We'll see if he can go Saturday vs Nashville  

You Say Tomato, I Say Tomahto

Union fans might get to see Cavan Sullivan play here
before he heads off to Europe in a few years

Local phenom Cavan Sullivan (Quinn's younger brother) was in the news quite a bit last week as the Union and Man City negotiated details about his professional contracts.   But what we really wanted to know was how to pronounce his first name.  kahVAN? KAYvon? Fortunately, we were able to go to an inside source, the Sullivan family who sits behind us at the Union matches.  The correct pronunciation is KAvin, rhymes with cabin or the start of the Cavanaugh, as in the county in Ireland.  The good news is that it looks like we'll get to see him for a few years before he leaves for Man City.  Side note to the story is that Sullivan can't play for Man City until he's 18 because Great Britain is not in the European Union.

Keep 'em Coming

Full EPL slate Saturday and Sunday and all the European competitions have action mid-week. The EPL schedule is here.  We'll be stuck with Peacock for Newcastle at Fulham at 10 am on Saturday.  We do recommend Man United - Liverpool on Sunday at 10:30 on NBC.  

We do suggest you clear your Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for Champions League Quarterfinal first leg matches.  Tuesday you can go with Arsenal - Bayern or Real Madrid - Man City.  Wednesday is PSG - Barcelona or Atletico Madrid - Dortmund.  All good looking fixtures. Thursday we'll go with Aston Villa vs LOSC in the first leg of their quarter final Europa Conference League tie.

Hard to remember the last time we didn't have football almost every day of the week. 

Return of the Minnow?

Hopefully you looked in on the FA Cup quarterfinals two weekends ago.  No, not the Newcastle 2-0 loss to Man City - that was boring.  But the other three were exciting, producing five stoppage time goals between them.

The best of the lot was Championship Division Coventry's roller coaster 3-2 win over Wolves.  They are probably too high up in English football (currently 8th in the second tier) to call them a true minnow but this was definitely an upset. The Sky Blues carried a 1-0 lead late into the match only to see it evaporate with goals by Wolves at 83 and 88 minutes.  Not to worry.  We'll just score at 90+7 to level and then again at 90+10 to win.  US International Haji Wright (more on him below) got the game winner, seen here as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Nothing flukey about that one, calmly curved around the defense.  A classic FA Cup moment.

I didn't see Chelsea push Leicester around for 90 minutes while still finding themselves locked at 2-2 heading into stoppage time.  Again, no worries.  The Blues simply poured in two goals in stoppage time to take this quarterfinal.  Leicester had been a man down from 73 minutes on, managed just five shots (only one on target) so it seems the win for Chelsea was fully deserved.

Man United vs Liverpool was a see-saw affair.  United had an early lead that turned into a 1-2 deficit by half time.  Antony leveled things late with an 87th minute goal.  My Forest Green Football Manager star Harvey Elliott put Liverpool back in front in the first period of extra time.  Again, not to worry.  Rashford got the equalizer at 112 and Amad Diallo got the game winner at 120+2, seen here.  Note that Diallo took his shirt off and got the requisite yellow card.  Problem was that it was his second so United had to play the final seconds down a man.  Dennis and I were so hoping that Liverpool would grab an equalizer with that advantage but there wasn't enough time.  

Just awesome stuff.  If the FA Cup keeps this up, we'll probably be more respectful in the future.

Limited EPL Action

The league stuff wasn't quite as captivating in comparison but I do remember a few things.  Burnley took advantage of a Brentford red card to get a 2-1 win to keep survival hopes alive.  The Luton Town - Nottingham Forest was a classic relegation contest and Luton Town did what they often do - scored a late goal to snatch a much-needed point.  This week's WTF moment was clearly Fulham's 3-0 smashing of Tottenham.  Michael B announced he no longer follows the EPL for the fifth time this season.  Aston Villa clearly missed John McGinn in a 1-1 draw at West Ham.  Dennis and I agreed that the point was a pretty good result given the circumstances.

I've Never Seen MLS Like This

The Mighty Quinn; Sullivan doubles the Union lead
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Apple's promo tag for MLS Season Pass works on multiple levels.  With the game behind two paywalls (Apple subscription plus Season Pass subscription), I took in Saturday's late match with Portland on WPEN.  Still too new with soccer on the radio - I can't translate play-by-play into a visual like I can for baseball or football.  The Union were seriously undermanned, missing six starters, mostly for international duty (more on that below) and naming just five subs - Donovan, Real, Ngabo, Makhanya and Rick.  Again, no worries.  A brace from Carranza and one from Sullivan were enough to see off the Timbers 3-1.

The MLS continued to burnish its reputation as a second tier league by playing through the international break, leaving many teams shorthanded.  This was especially egregious given that the USMNT was involved in Concacaf Nation League semis and finals.  So the domestic league from which the national team in theory draws its talent didn't see the need to observe the international break.  

At least they resolved the referee lockout.

How Many Countries In This Country Made the European Championships?

Alas, just two - England and Scotland.  Wales easily bested Finland 4-1 in a semi but failed to advance against Poland, falling in the PK shootout after playing to 0-0 draw through 120 minutes.  A close (as expected) low scoring (as expected) match that turned out to be perfect for intermittant napping.   Ukraine and Georgia (good week for former SSRs) were the other two additions to the championship field.  

The Wright Stuff

Doing it Wright; Haji scores in extra time
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

The USMNT was about to bow out of the Concacaf Nations League, trailing Jamaica 0-1 in stoppage time.  They were given a lifeline by an own goal from ex-Union striker Cory Burke.  Not looking a gift horse in the mouth, Haji Wright proceeded to score two in extra time to give the US a 3-1 win and a berth in the final.

In the final, the US got a convincing 2-0 win over Mexico.  Dos a cero anyone?  The first goal was a Tyler Adams'  shot from the parking lot, seen here.  That's a solid .001 xG right there.  The second was from Gio Reyna, who seems to have made up with the team.  Hard to recall Mexico threatening all that much.  No, the biggest issue was their fans (see below).

Really?

So play was suspended twice in the late stages of the US - Mexico Concacaf Nations League final for homophobic chanting by Mexican fans.  Again.  Concacaf and maybe FIFA need to get tough here.  They didn't even follow the established protocol here.  Referee Drew Fisher correctly stopped play after the first incident.  But for the second incident, they are supposed to pull the players from the field; Fisher only called them back to the center circle.  It's not going to stop unless the powers-that-be get serious about this.

Conversation That Could Have Taken Place and Did

BFS La Liga Correspondent Michael B is in England with wife Susan to take in a couple matches and hike in the Cotswalds.  

Michael: We're going to see Spurs - Luton Town on Saturday

Steve: Wait, I thought Susan was Luton free

Gotta Be Something in the Water

These guys spent three days in Newcastle and two
had to have hip replacments

Newcastle managed to collect two more injuries.  Sven Botman went down with a ACL injury in the
closing minutes of the Man City match.  He sat out three months earlier this year, opting for a non-surgical rehab of an ACL injury.  The consensus is that his form has been off since his return.  The stats at WhoScored.com back that up; his average game rating in those 12 matches has been 6.34 (including a 5.88, 5.87 and a 4.56) while his average last year was 6.75.  Surgery is the only option this time and he'll be out six to nine months.  Don't want to second guess too much but that plan did not work.

Then we hear that Lewis Miley hurt his back on international duty and will miss several weeks.  How does a 17-year-old get a back injury?

I will note for the record that five of us (see picture above right) spent three days in Newcastle in 2016 and two of us eventually required hip replacements.  Didn't think much of it at the time but the connection is so obvious now.

Seeing the Forest?

Finally up-to-date in Football Manager but it has not been pretty.  Forest Green have five wins, two draws and five losses since 1/1/24.  We are still fifth but trending towards eighth.  In my defense, it's probably mostly my fault.  I go weeks without playing and don't keep notes anymore on what formations, tactics and player roles make a difference.  The game is too detailed to get away with that.  If I was on the board, I'd consider sacking me.  

The Run-in Starts Now (apologies to Steve Earle)

Glad to see that the rest of the world has accepted the unilateral declaration by Michael and me that the run-in officially begins after the spring international break.  And it gets off and running with two match weeks spread over Saturday/Sunday and Tuesday-Thursday.  England hasn't moved to DST (Sunday) yet so note the Saturday times are an hour later than we're used to.

Marquee match of the week is clearly Man City vs Arsenal Sunday at 11:30 on NBC.  The Gunners sit in first but City are just a point back.  Despite their proximity in the table, Opta doesn't give Arsenal much of a chance here at 21% for the win and 26% for the draw.  

We'll be up to take in Newcastle vs West Ham at St. James' Park at 8:30 on Saturday.  I guess the home venue gives the Magpies a slight edge here but not taking anything for granted on this one.  There's a full slate of five fixtures at 11; we'll go with Spurs-Luton Town on Peacock to see if we catch a glimpse of Michael in the stands when the cameras do their panning for celebrities.  Nottingham Forest - Crystal Palace is also a good choice given its relegation relevance.

The 1:30 feature match on NBC should be fun with Aston Villa hosting Wolves.  Villans are favored at home but expecting a fun contest.  Add in a special 4 pm contest between Brentford and Man United and you have a full Saturday.

Your warmup for the Man City Arsenal fixture is Liverpool - Brighton.  The Reds could be back top of the table with the right set of results.

Best of the mid week fixtures look to be West Ham - Spurs on Tuesday, Man City - Aston Villa on Wednesday and Chelsea - Man United on Thursday.  Newcastle's descent into the bottom half of the table could be complete after Tuesday's fixture with Everton.

In the midst of all the EPL action on Saturday, I'll be at Subaru Park to see the Union with my own eyes as they take on Minnesota at 2 pm.  

Still paddling like crazy with projects but will attempt to keep the lights on and the posts coming.

Washout

It can't be good when the best result of the week for your teams is a rainout.  Not good news for any of the BFS home sides.  Well, that's not completely true as Aston Villla did manage a 4-0 spanking of Ajax to advance to the quarter finals of the Europa Conference League.  

Newcastle went down 3-2 at Chelsea and the score is a bit charitable given that the Magpies' second goal came in the closing minutes.  The stats don't look like a disaster but the second half felt like there was no way Newcastle could win.  All that trash talk about Chelsea is coming back to haunt me as we only lead the Blues by a single point and the bottom half of the table is beckoning.

Aston Villa fared worse, losing at home 4-0 to Tottenham.  The more distressing news was the straight red collected by John McGinn that will see him suspended for three games.  It was not a classic red card challenge but he did line up Udogi and came in with a lot of speed.  Villa still hold onto 4th but the margin is just two points. 

But the Union did the worst, falling 6-0 to Pachuca in the second leg of their Concacaf Champions Cup Round of 16 tie.  We have nothing more to say about that one.  It does make one think that maybe sometimes a rainout, like we got with Seattle on Saturday night, is a good thing.

No Lead Is Safe

Sides in the bottom three spent the week making the case that any lead is the most dangerous.    Burnley were up 2-0 on West Ham but ended up with a 2-2 draw when Danny Ings scored in the 91st minute.  Sheffield United were up 2-0 on Bournemouth but also ended up with a 2-2 when Enes Unal scored in the, wait for it, 91st minute.  But Luton Town bested those two, taking a 3-0 lead on Bournemouth before surrendering four second half goals in a 4-3 loss.

Who's In First?

First place Liverpool played to a 1-1 draw with second place Man City (a decent watch) so who's in first?  Right, Arsenal, because they beat Brentford 2-1 and have a better goal differential than Liverpool.  We are set for what hopefully will be an interesting three-team race to the finish.  Sorry Villa and Spurs but at 8 and 10 points back of third, hard to see you guys being in it.  Actually, eight points is the biggest gap in the table right now.

A Quiet Weekend

The FA Cup quarterfinals mean we have limited action.  Here's the FA Cup lineup:

Subtract four hours to get EST for the matches.  Viewing will be limited to ESPN+.  The Magpies playing at The Etihad doesn't look enticing; Opta says 72% chance of Man City win, 16% it goes to PKs.  Chelsea and Wolves are solid favorites in their matches as well.  Even the Man United - Liverpool match is offering long odds for the home side; Liverpool are 49% for the win and 24% for a PK shootout.

That schedule still leaves us with four EPL fixtures.  Saturday at 11 (they haven't moved to daylight saving time yet) offers two relegation specials - Burnley v Brentford (Peacock) and Luton Town v Nottingham Forest (USA); we'll likely go with the latter.  A London derby featuring Fulham and Tottenham is the 1:30 feature match (on USA as NBC goes with The Players Championship).  Sunday has a good one with West Ham hosting Aston Villa at 10 on USA.

Having done so well in Mexico, the Union head south again to take on Austin at 8:30 on Saturday; that one is on "free" Apple.  

Yeah, still swamped with work so you're on your own for Champions League and other Europa stuff.  Also, with the international break after this weekend, we will take a week off.  We will be back for the EPL run-in, which Michael B and I have unilaterally decided begins with the first games after the March international break.