Is This Not Why You Are Here?

apologies to Maximus

Improbably road wins for Newcastle and the Union.  Entertaining Champions League matches.  Fun week.

Phire the Phucking Physio

Newcastle's season in one picture

We had low expectations for the trip to Fulham so the 1-0 win was a pleasant surprise.  In truth, a draw probably would have been the fairest result here.  Shots, shots on goal and xG were basically equal.  The difference was this shot from Bruno Guimaraes.  Nice behind the back pass by Barnes (?) but we also wonder if the keeper could have done better.

Of course, these three points did not come without a cost.  Joe Willock went down late in the first half and had to be replaced.  He's suffering from a continuing achilles heel problem and no return date was provided.  Teenager Lewis Hall also left late in the second half but that appeared to be a due to leg cramps.  Except aren't leg cramps somewhat preventable with proper training and nutrition?  Just sayin'.

Not Even A Partial Eclipse

This week's referee call under the microscope comes to us from the Wolves - West Ham contest.  With Wolves down 1-2 late, Max Kilman had appeared to level the match with a brilliant header.  Ruled a goal on the field, VAR told Tony Harrington to go to the monitor, at which point he changed his call to offside. You can see the play here.  No doubt that Chirewa is in an offside position.  He doesn't touch the ball but is he doing one of the following:

• - preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or

  - challenging an opponent for the ball or

  - clearly attempting to play a ball which is close when this action impacts on an opponent or

  - making an obvious action which clearly impacts on the ability of an opponent to play the ball

The only option here is the first one and that was the official explanation.  The ESPN weekly review was satisfied, citing previous, "similar," incidences that were called offside.  And a number of "experts" lined up behind that opinion.

There's no eclipse of the ball here

I am not one of them.  Neither is former referee Mark Clattenberg.  And I will argue that the "similiar" incidences chosen by the pro-offside aren't really similar.  They involve the player physically preventing the keeper from playing the ball or actually blocking his vision.  Neither happened in this case.  Check out the picture to the left.  Fabianski certainly seems to have his focus clearly on the ball.  Chirewa is not obstructing his line of vision.  That may be because Fabianski is 6'3" while Chirewa is 5'11".   The requirement for interfering with an opponent was not met.  I'm not willing to call it the worst decision of the year but I don't think the supposed clear and obvious error threshold for VAR was met here.  

Et Two Bruno

99.99% chance he's not hurt (Photo: AFP)

More than once in this space I have lamented the antics of Newcastle's Bruno Guimaraes - the
overacting on fouls, the whining, the quick temper.  While watching the enormously entertaining 2-2 Man United -Liverpool draw, the performance of Bruno Fernandes reminded me that Guimaraes isn't the only annoying Bruno out there.  All the same annoying traits.  They're both excellent players who don't need that act. I asked Dennis who was worse and he said "Fernandes but only because Guimaraes hasn't been in the league long enough. Another year and it will be a tie."

When Harry Met Salah

Not Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal (photo: Reuters)

Bonus points to Graeme Le Saux for his description of the collision between Harry Maguire and Mo Salah.  Jon Champion could only groan in response.

Meanwhile...

Arsenal win over Brighton combined with Liverpool draw puts the Gunners back on top on goal differential.  Spurs win over Nottingham Forest combined with Aston Villa draw with Brentford means Tottenham are now fourth, also on goal differential though they also have a game in hand.  

At the other end of the table, just five points separate Luton Town, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford and Crystal Palace in the struggle to avoid the last relegation spot.

Like Shooting Fish in a Barrel?

Dennis sends along this article on the conversion rate of PKs in the EPL. This year the success rate is 88.5%, the highest in EPL history.  Looking at the trend line, the rate has gone from about 74% in 93-94 to just over 80% today.  The graph below shows the change.

Source: Jonathan Manual/Data Analyst/Opta

Three theories advanced for the increase are the rule change requiring keeper to have at least one foot on the line when the kick is taken, use of VAR to identify keeper infractions, and an increase in the number of left-footed kickers taking the PKs.  

The View from Europe

Excellent Champions League action in all four of the first leg of the quarterfinal series.  Arsenal-Bayern drew 2-2 and Real Madrid - Man City were 3-3.  Atletico have a 2-1 lead on Dortmund while Barcelona bring a 3-2 lead over PSG to the second leg.  In other words, all to play for.

The EPL sides fared much less well in Europa League with Liverpool going down - at home - to Atalanta 0-3, while West Ham lost 2-0 on the road at Leverkusen.  Aston Villa did a bit better, taking a 2-1 win over LOSC in their Europa Conference League match.  

If The Union Win and I Don't Watch, Do They Get Three Points?

Most definitely.  I could only take in the highlights of the Union's unlikely 2-1 win over Nashville.  This would have been fine to enjoy live, as the Union got the game winner in the 90th minute on a header from Gazdag off a McGlynn corner.  We make it this week's YouTubeableMoment.  The delivery from McGlynn was superb.  How was Gazdag so wide open?  He barely moved on the play.  Having only seen the highlights, I can only go by the stats - which look basically even; the U did have a better xG at 1.8 versus 1.3.  I also saw some continued fine goalkeeping from backup Oliver Semmle.  

Hmm, the U are the only undefeated team left in MLS.  They sit second in the East, two points behind the New Jersey Red Cows with a game in hand.  Carranza and Gazdag are scoring.  Quinn Sullivan is wreaking havoc, by which I mean creating chances.  Blake has missed several matches but Semmle has done well as his replacement.  Wait, it's the hope that kills you.

Keep Plugging Away

Antoher full slate of EPL plus second legs of all the Europe competition quarter finals.  

I won't suggest this is the greatest set of fixtures for the EPL.  Newcastle host Spurs at 7:30 on Saturday on USA and that is one of the top choices for the weekend.  Opta has that as really close at 36/27/37; that feels a little light on the Spurs' chances to me.  Four matches at 10 am, none will get the blood going.  We'll likely go with Brentford - Sheffield United on Peacock given the relegation implications. The 12:30 "feature" match is Bournemouth - Man United, which could mean an early switch over to the Masters. 

Though Opta sees Arsenal as solid favorites, we're interested to see how Aston Villa do in this match (11:30 Sunday); they are rarely overmatched against any team so this could be fun.  

Definitely mark your calendars for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons for the second legs of the Champions League quarterfinals.  Barcelona - PSG (Tuesday) and Man City - Real Madrid (Wednesday) are on CBS so you can watch live or DVR.  The other matches are on Paramount Plus.

The Union will head to Atlanta for a Sunday 2:30 match.  This one is on Fox. Suck it Apple!