Luck of the Geordies?

Newcastle enjoyed a little bit of luck, Aston Villa not so much.  

Beat the Forest for the Three

Clinical finisher? Schar got another one

This was feeling like deja vu all over again - giving up leads to go into halftime at 2-2 against a bottom five side.  Fortunately a nice take by Guimaraes and a perhaps generous no call on Dubravka yielded a 3-2 win for the Magpies over Nottingham Forest. I note the xG was .51-.97, indicating these were not the most obvious of goal scoring opportunities for either side and that Newcastle were maybe a bit lucky to get the win.  The goal by Bruno, though a low percentage shot, was a laser and we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  The Dubravka incident, seen here, could have gone either way.  I'm happy that VAR did not intervene; that's one of those close ones where changing the call on the field feels like re-refereeing as opposed to correcting an obvious error.  The bottom half of the table is still closer than any European qualifying spots but things have been looking up.  

"A" For Effort But No Points

How to grade the Aston Villa 1-2 loss at home to Man United?  Zero points suggests less than a passing grade.  But, the performance was solid.  After Douglas Luiz leveled it in the 67th minute, you felt this was Aston Villa's match to win.  But they lost the plot toward the end and a late goal from McTominy meant United got all three points.  Stats - especially xG at 2.65-2.45 - say maybe Villa earned at least a point here.  That's twice now they have performed well against Man United and come away with nothing.  

We Ref, You Defend

How about you just play defense instead of
refereeing- Estupinan raises his arm and gets to
 Johnson too late to stop the goal

Wolves - Brentford (2-0 favor the Bees) wasn't awful but it was a poor second choice to Tottenham - Brighton. With the score 1-1 late in stoppage time and me scheduled to meet Michael B for a run after the match, I was prepared for him to be in a bad mood.  Next thing I see is that Spurs have gone up 2-1 in the 96th minute.  Brennan Johnson (fastest man in EPL?) has scored the game winner on a lovely feed from Son.  You can see the play here.  Michael immediately called my attention to how Brighton defender Estupinan raised his arm to call for offside, then failed to get back in time to cover Johnson.  Yeah, the raised arm probably didn't slow him that much but given how close Estupinan came to intercepting the pass, it could easily have been the difference.  I hope he gets a big fine.  Stick to defending because you are a lousy referee; the play wasn't even that close to being offside.

Status Quo at the Top

Didn't see Liverpool - Burnley but the Reds looked to have handled the Clarets easily enough in a 3-1 win.  Not that Everton were in danger of scoring but Man City didn't really finish off the Toffees until very late in their 2-0 win.  Though they took a half hour to get untracked, once Arsenal found the scoring touch it was lights out for West Ham.  The Gunners had 25 shots, 12 on goal to West Ham's five (only one on target) on their way to the 6-0, um, hammering.  So no change in the top three.

Dead Man Coaching?

Roy Hodgson: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill?

Chelsea hardly distinguished themselves at Selhurst Park, beating Crystal Palace 3-1 on two stoppage time goals.  The xG was just 1.39-.75, hardly a dominating performance.  Still, even though the score flatters Chelsea and Palace were never really expecting a result here, Roy Hodgson's position is even more tenuous.  I've seen odds between 1/8 and 1/3 that he's the next to be sacked.  I can't imagine he survives a loss to Everton this weekend.

Uh oh, I was only kidding with the header but Hodgson did go to the hospital after taking ill during Thursday's practice.  Also, the board chair looked to have been ready to sack Hodgson today after meeting with Austrian Oliver Glasner.  Details are here.  Seems like by the time you read this on Friday, the change may have already been made.

Looking Up from the Abyss

So Sheffield United managed a big win this weekend - 3-1 over relegation rival Luton Town.  The three points got them level with Burnley but both are currently seven points from safety, more if Everton win their appeal of the points deduction.  In other words, the result was more about dragging Luton Town down than lifting Sheffield out of danger.

A New Beer for Newcastle Fans

An alternative to Newcastle Ale

Though I'm sure they've never heard of it across the pond, we've discovered a beer that could become the official Newcastle brew here at 6911.  It's called Magpie Hazy IPA, a tasty beer offered by Wissahickon Brewery.  I've always been partial to lagers and pilsners and such but lately I've come to realize that hazy IPAs aren't as hoppy as I thought.  I think the California trip has something to do with it as well.  I'm not saying it will replace better-known Newcastle Brown Ale but it is a great change of pace.

A Non-descript Weekend in February

The fixtures for Matchweek 25 don't scream "must-see TV."  I kid you not, the most compelling match looks like Everton - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3 pm on USA.  A Palace win would put some distance between them and the relegation zone, not to mention buy Hodgson at least another week.  A win for Everton would likely lift them out of the bottom three.  

In years past, Man City - Chelsea (12:30 feature match on Saturday on NBC) would be a big deal.  For this one, Opta has City at 64% chance of winning and 22% chance of a draw.  Doing the math gets you a 14% chance of Chelsea winning, which sounds about right.  

The only match I can find with the favorite at less than 40% is Fulham - Aston Villa (32/29/39), one of the Saturday 10 am matches on Peacock.  That seems a little pessimistic about Villa's chances; I guess maybe because it's at Craven Cottage.  In any case, it would have been our choice for 10 am except we'll be watching Newcastle host Bournemouth at the same time.  The Magpies do look to be solid favorites here, even with Wilson and Isak both likely out.  Your other 10 am choices are Burnley Arsenal (USA), Nottingham Forest - West Ham (Peacock - actually this one might be close too) and Tottenham - Wolves (Peacock).  Oh, and you can get up at 7:30 for Brentford - Liverpool; I know the Bees are better at home but this looks like a Liverpool W.

Sunday isn't any better.  At 9 we have Sheffield United - Brighton and 11:30 is Luton Town - Man United.  Both are on USA.

There are two EPL mid-week matches. On Tuesday, Man City host Brentford (make-up match from when City were at the Club World Cup) and Wednesday has Liverpool - Luton Town; they are playing their Matchweek 26 contest early in the week because Liverpool play Chelsea in the EFL Cup final next Sunday.

Full slate of European stuff too, including Arsenal - Porto on Wednesday.   

Still pretty much impossible not to find a game any day of the week.

Moving From Crisis to Crisis

Just when things seemed to be getting better for Newcastle, they slipped again.  In New Hampshire so limited time.

Barnes' noble effort rescued a draw for Newcastle
Photo:Malcolm Mackenzie/ProSports/Shutterstock

The good feeling after the Aston Villa road win lasted about 20 minutes, or about as long as it took Luton Town to level the match at 1-1.  It happened again as the teams traded goals for a 2-2 halftime score.  Things got worse as Luton Town went up 4-2 by the 62nd minute.  Goals by Trippier and Barnes (just back from injury) allowed us to salvage a point.  Barnes' shot was well-taken and qualifies as this week's YouTubeableMoment.  We sweated out a whether Miley was going to get called for a foul in the build-up.  These late tallies allowed for some relief to go with the dismay that we could only manage a draw against a bottom five club. Let's add an injury to Anthony Gordon (sprained ankle) to the mix.  So much for the one-game winning streak.

Play Sheffield United and Call Me in the Morning

Simply put, facing the Blades is good for what ails you.  Aston Villa were going through their first really unimpressive stretch of the season but snapped out of it very nicely with a 5-0 thrashing of Sheffield United.  Crystal Palace got that relief last week.  Apparently, like many medications, it offers only temporary relief.  Palace were trashed 4-1 by Brighton on Saturday and Aston Villa laid an egg in a 1-3 FA Cup loss to Chelsea. 

Sheffield fell deeper into the hole since all the other bottom five sides grabbed a point this weekend. 

How Do You Say Yo La Tengo In Dutch?

There's a story from the 1962 Mets about how centerfielder Richie Ashburn and shortstop had frequent communication breakdowns on shallow pop flies to the outfield.  Ashburn enlisted the help of a teammate to learn that "yo la tengo" is Spanish for "I got it."  On the next pop fly, Ashburn came racing in yelling "Yo la tengo" and Chacon veered away.  Unfortunately left fielder Frank Thomas didn't speak Spanish and ran into Ashburn, knocking the ball out of his glove.  Is it true?  Hard to say.  The only fact check I could find was that Frank Thomas denied that it happened.  Well, of course he would.

I bring up that old chestnut after watching Livepool's Alisson and van Dijk totally botch a ball in the box to allow Arsenal a lead goal.  You can see the play here.  Quite a stunning miscommunication at a critical time.  Arsenal would add an insurance goal in stoppage time but this would be the game winner.  Frankly, Liverpool looked surprisingly uninspired throughout.  That said, it's not like Arsenal ripped them to shreds.  

Even with the loss, Liverpool maintain a two point lead over Man City and Arsenal, though the Citizens have a game in hand.  They were very steady in a 3-1 win over Brentford.  We already mentioned Villa's win.  Tottenham gave up a chance to move into fourth by surrendering a 94th minute equalizer to Everton while Man United won an important six-pointer over West Ham 3-0.  

EPL Matchweek Scoring Record

45 goals breaks theold record of 44.  Obviously Newcastle Luton Town provided the big boost with their eight.  Other key contributors were Chelsea/Wolves, Aston Villa/SHU, and Brighton/Palace.

Sack Race

Tough weekends for the leading sack candidates.  Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace were run over by Brighton 4-1 while Mauricio Pochettino saw his Chelsea squander an early lead to lose 2-4 to Wolves at Stamford Bridge no less.  Off these disappointing efforts, Hodgson at 1/1 and Pochettino at 2/1 lead the field.  Poch may get some relief from their good showing mid-week in the FA Cup replay versus Aston Villa.  Unfortunately, Eddie Howe has crept back up as well and is now at 16/1 along with ten Hag and Kompany.

The Rest of the 4th Round

FA Cup replays completed the 4th round mid-week.  We had high hopes for Aston Villa against an enigmatic and inconsistent Chelsea side but it was not to be.  Here's the final tally for the round:

Divsion                          Wins         Losses

Premier                             10              5

Championship                    5              9

League Two                       0               2

National League South      1               0

As you can see, this is not a good year for the minnows, with all but one of the last sixteen coming from the top two tiers.

Our 2026 World Cup Runneth Over

The schedule for the 2026 World Cup was announced this week and it was good news for us mid-Atlantic people.  Lincoln Financial Field got five group stage matches and a Round of 16 contest.  The Meadowlands in Secaucus did even better, getting five group stage, a Round of 32, a Round of 16 and the Final.  How many matches we end up seeing will be a budget, not access issue.

  

MatchWeek 24 and the Return of Champions League (and other, lesser, European competitions)

Maybe sleep late and pass on Man City hosting Everton at 7:30 on Saturday.

There are five 10 choices.  The TV option is Liverpool -Burnley, which doesn't sound all that great.  Relegation rivals Luton vs Sheffield United face off but Luton are heavily favored.  Most competitive of the lot is Wolves - Brentford.   Spurs shouldn't really struggle with Brighton at home and Fulham likely can handle Bournemouth.  Put us down for Wolves - Brentford. 

NBC feature at 12:30 is Nottingham Forest hosting Newcastle.  The Magpies are favored but not overwhelmingly so (44/28/28).

Sunday is a bit more interesting.  There's a London Derby at 9 on USA between West Ham and Arsenal.  Best matchup of the week is at 11:30 with Aston Villa hosting Man United. A fixture to sort things out - are Man U on the rebound, are Villa ready to compete for top four?

There is a Managers Under the Gun Special on Monday at 3 pm on Monday with Crystal Palace hosting Chelsea.  The outcome is probably more important to Pochettino's fate than Hodgson's.

Champions League is back with first leg of Round of 16 knockout ties.  Man City is away at Copenhagen (Tuesday at 3) and Arsenal is at Porta (Wednesday at 3 pm).  West Ham, Liverpool and Brighton (winners of their groups) will watch others battle it out for spots in the final 16 in the Europa League.  Likewise Aston Villa will watch others compete for the final 16 in Europa Conference League.

MLS season opens in a little over two weeks?  That is tempered by the news that MLS Season Pass is back too.

The Minnowest of Minnows

We had few moments of the stuff that makes the FA Cup worth watching, then Matchweek 22 from Tuesday-Thursday.  A lot of football.  Newcastle won twice in four days.  What is going on here?

Sunny and Schar (hat tip Jon Champion)

Schar nearly became the first defender to 
bag a hat trick in the EPL

Hard to figure out how to organize all this stuff.  We'll start with a quick review of Newcastle's unlikely week.  For the 2-0 win at Fulham in the FA Cup the stats favor Fulham (possession 37/63, shots 8/12, xG 1.54/1.22) but I recall a sense of confidence that we were going to be fine.  This means a rare trip to the 5th round (against Blackburn) for the Magpies.  On Tuesday at Villa, we were fully prepared to have our butts kicked.  How to explain then the 3-1 win?   Though I've seen Aston Villa lose before Tuesday, I don't think I'd ever seen them outplayed since Emery took over.  Not sure what that's about.  Also, not the best game from keeper Martinez.  Newcastle clearly benefited from some down time and they did not run out of gas late in this one.  A brace from defender Fabian Schar didn't hurt; he definitely got a bit lucky on the second one, which came off the crossbar, deflected off Martinez and basically fell at his feet inside the six.  The third was an own goal, allbeit at the end of some beautiful buildup play that put the ball at the far post.   Arguably, these two sides are pretty much equal, each having hot streak and cold streak.  Yet somehow the aggregate score for their two fixtures is 8-2 Newcastle.  That seems impossible.  After a long streak of gray days, we definitely appreciated the clouds parting, at least for a little bit.

The Stones Are Rolling

Maidstone's Sam Corne takes the game winning shot
for the biggest upset of FA Cup action this year
Photo:AFP/BEN STANSALL

This year's FA Cup finally got the minnow eats the shark moment everybody (well almost everybody) loves with one of the bigger upsets in recent times as Maidstone United (the Stones), 4th in the National League South, edged out Ipswich Town, who sit second in the Championship Division.  That's a spread of 98 places in the English football hierarchy.  Maidstone took the lead just before half.  Given that it was Maidstone's first shot of the game and that Ipswich had dominated the play, this seemed like one of those times when "it's the hope that kills."  Sure enough, Ipswich leveled things at 56 minutes while Maidstone had yet to register another shot.  Incredibly, Maidstone took the lead again in the 66th minute with just their second shot of the match.  This would be their last shot but it would be enough for the 2-1 win.  You can see the goal here in this week's YouTubeableMoment.  You can see some of the post-match celebraton here.  They'll face the winner of the Coventry/Sheffield Wednesday replay in the 5th round.  Pretty cool, unless you're an Ipswich fan.

No Hollywood Ending

Wrexham entered their fourth round match against Blackburn with high hopes that were not necessarily unreasonable.  Blackburn are 18th in the Championship while Wrexham are second, so the spread is 32 places; it's not out of the realm of possibility that both will be playing in League One next year.  Think mackerel and tuna rather than minnow and shark.  Anyway, when Wrexham opened the scoring with a goal in the 19th minute, you had to be thinking, here we go.  Unfortunately, all that did was make the tuna mad.  It was 3-1 before half and the final was 4-1 for the Rovers.  It was clear that Blackburn were not interested in being part of anyone's fairy tale.

The Best Man Lost

Really not much to say about Liverpool's 5-2 thrashing of Norwich.  Well, other than the Best Man here - Norwich manager David Wagner - lost.  Turns out he was in fact Best Man at Jurgen Klopp's wedding.  We'll leave discussion about Klopp's announcement that he's leaving at the end of the season to other publications.

Late Winners and Other FA Cup Action

Spurs and Man City looked headed for a replay until Ake' scored in the 88th minute.  There was a VAR review for a possible foul against keeper Vicario but we think they got it right letting the goal stand.  Even more dramatic was Luton Town's 96th minute game winner at Everton that sent the Hatters to the 5th round.  There was nothing dramatic about the Chelsea - Aston Villa 0-0 draw.  Villa, perhaps presaging Tuesday's troubles against Newcastle, looked surprisingly listless.  But Chelsea were even listlesser, completely unable to take advantage of the Villa's off-day.

The Scorecard

For the fourth round of the FA Cup we have the following numbers:

Divsion                          Wins        Draws        Losses

Premier                             8                3                4

Championship                  2                7                5

League Two                      0                0                2

National League South     1                0                0

Yeah, tough weekend for the Championship sides, although three are guaranteed advancement in the replays and a fourth could also make it to the 5th Round.

Ich Bin Ein Saudi

These international competitions can lead to some interesting rooting choices.  For example, with Son Heung-Min playing for South Korea against Saudi Arabia in the AFC Asia Cup Round of 16, Michael B all of sudden became a Saudi fan because a Saudi Arabia victory would send Son back to his beloved Spurs in time for Saturday's match against Everton.  He alerted me that Saudi Arabia were up 1-0 late into stoppage time, undoubtedly pencilling Son in for Saturday's starting XI.  South Korea then proceeded to rain on that parade, leveling the match in 99th minute, then winning the penalty shootout after a scoreless 30 minutes of extra time.  Now the earliest he'll be back is 2/10, later if South Korea make the final.

Matchweek 22

Yikes, how many words in and we haven't gotten to the EPL stuff?  Gonna have to speed through it.  The marquee match was a bust as Liverpool had little trouble dispatching Chelsea 4-1.  Better stuff was Spurs - Brentford, a three act drama.  In Act I, the Bees took an early 1-0 lead and arguably looked the better side.  In Act II, the empire struck back with three goals in just eight minutes.  In Act III, Spurs conceded a second in the 67th minute and then had to hold on for dear live (Michael B text: It was emotionally exhausting).  But we'll go with the second half of Wolves-Man United as the best of the week.  Up 2-0 and 3-1, Man United frittered the lead away.  Only a late stoppage time goal from Koobie Mainoo rescued the three points for the Red Devils.  You can see the highlights here, set up to start when the Wolves decided to make things exciting.

We also need to mention that Luton Town lifted themselves out of the bottom three with 4-0 win over Brighton; where did that come from?

The January Transfer Window Nothing Burger

Harrison's nickhame is Haaland Jr

I don't mean that in a bad way.  Given that there was discussion that Newcastle could lose Guimaraes, Wilson, Almiron and Trippier, having basically nothing happen is a good thing.  We did bring in 18-year-old midfielder Alfie Harrison from Man City for an undisclosed "nominal fee."  Quite relieved they will roll the dice with what they have and wait until the summer transfer window to make bigger moves.

You can review every team's movements here.  A quick eyeballing suggests it was a very quiet window.

The Weekend

There's a full slate of matches for the weekend plus FA Cup replays mid-week.  We're in New Hampshire so not clear how much of that action we'll get to see.  

The Matchweek 23 fixture list is not going to blow you away, although we do have Arsenal hosting Liverpool at 11:30 Sunday on Peacock.  Already 5 points down to Liverpool, one might be ready to label this a "must-win" for the Gunners; definitely a "must-not lose."   I guess we should respect Man United vs West Ham (9 Sunday on Peacock) and Chelsea vs Wolves (9 Sunday on USA) as potentially competitive matches.  I forgot that West Ham are ahead of Man United in the table and that Chelsea are just one place and two points above Wolves.

The BFS sides have what on paper look like winnable matches.  Newcastle host Luton Town (10 Saturday on Peacock) while Aston Villa are at Sheffield United in the NBC Feature Match 12:30 Saturday on Peacock.  Wait, the 12:30 Saturday match is on Peacock?  WTF is going on here?  Oh, NBC has the US Olympic Trials Marathon live.  Never mind.  We're good.  

Probably worth getting up at 7:30 Saturday to see Everton host Spurs on USA; not really expecting an upset but might be close because it's at Goodison Park.  Competition for Newcastle - Luton Town in the 10 am Saturday slot is Brighton - Crystal Palace (USA) or Burnley - Fulham (Peacock).  That latter match could be a tight one.  Bournemouth - Nottingham Forest at 9 am Sunday looks like a poor 3rd option compared to the other choices. 

There's also Monday match between Brentford and Man City at 3 on USA.  Probably the only good thing about that one is that it's your only choice.

There are five FA Cup replays Tuesday and Wednesday.  Best choice is clearly Aston Villa - Chelsea Wednesday at 3 pm.  Neither side has exactly thrilled in recent weeks but I think Villa are more likely to respond here.  The full schedule is here; note that Tuesday looks like a Championship Division matchweek, as all six sides are from the second tier.

Looking ahead, Champions League and the other European competitions are back the following week.  You're viewing plate continues to be full.

Let Us Spray

Posting a day early because the FA Cup fourth round gets underway on Thursday.  Short fixture list over the past week but still some interesting stuff.

Magic Moving Vanishing Spray

Probably couldn't have gotten long odds on Brentford's Ivan Toney scoring upon his return after the eight month suspension for illegal betting.  The circumstances of the goal are another matter all together. Nottingham Forest were called for a foul just outside their penalty area.  Darren England dutifully marked the spot with a semi-circle of vanishing spray and headed off to supervise construction of the wall.  Once given the go ahead, Toney carefully curled the free kick just inside the near post for a goal.

This recounting of the incident leaves out two key details.  Once England turned his back to work on the wall, Toney first moved the ball a few inches to his right.  Apparently not satisfied with the advantage the first move gave him, Toney picked up a section of the foam and moved it about a yard farther to the right, then placed the ball next to the relocated section of foam. You can see how Toney improved his odds here - this week's YouTubeableMoment.  However, these actions weren't immediately known to the viewer, and maybe others as well.

Initially, the focus was on keeper Matt Turner for poor placement of the wall.  Indeed, on first replay it looks the wall is easily too far to the right, leaving the near post exposed.  Only later when we see how much Toney moved the ball do we realize there was much more to it. We wonder how Turner or any Forest player failed to a)notice the relocation and b)notify the referee.  We'll give England a pass as his back was to the activity.  But what about the Assistant Referee?  Or why was VAR not involved?  That neither intervened has led to the impression that Toney's activities were okay.  I think it more likely that neither party noticed the action.  Or, maybe VAR saw but had no idea what the proper response was; I'd argue that if he saw it, the VAR has an obligation to notify the referee.

Toney scoops the foam before moving the ball
Photo: (Nick Potts/PA)/(PA Wire)

Toney for his part insists that his actions were totally legal, citing some non-existent language in the laws that allows him "to move the ball a yard either way."  I have no idea WTF he is referring to.  There is nothing in the laws about leeway in positioning the ball.  (For future reference, there is also no leeway in the location of a throw-in - it is to be taken from the spot where the ball left the field of play.  The occasional lenience of referees on that point is in no way based on any plus or minus distance outlined in the rules but on the basis that usually it doesn't matter.)  Also, if it was "totally legal," why does it appear that he instructed some of his teammates to distract the referee?

I'm in the "that is a violation" camp, a cautionable offense at that.  Unsporting behavior includes "making unauthorised marks on the field of play."  The whole point of marking the spot with foam is so that the referee doesn't have to keep a constant eye on the ball to know that the kick is being taken from the correct spot.  This is a deliberate attempt to deceive the referee.  While it is too late for sanctions on this particular incident, I very much hope we soon get guidance from the FA and/or the PGMOL about the correct procedure here.  As of publication of this post, I have not seen anything.  

Some have argued that Forest's complaint to PGMOL is "pointless."  And, to the extent that some of blame is clearly on the Forest defenders and some of the credit has to go to Toney for a well-taken free kick, they are right.  But we certainly need some response from PGMOL about the proper procedures before it happens again.

Wait, in an newer post, we hear that the PGMOL honcho Howard Webb has reportedly said there was nothing VAR could do on that play because it "can only be used to rule on errors relating to goals, penalties, red cards and mistaken identity."  Excuse me, but there was a goal scored on the play.  How is this not exactly like a foul in the build-up to a goal?

In Other Action

Well, Arsenal - Crystal Palace (5-0) and Bournemouth - Liverpool (0-4) were a bust and the snooze fest of a 0-0 draw between Brighton and Wolves was a disappointment.  At least Sheffield United - West Ham had its moments.  Down a man and a goal into stoppage time, Sheffield United looked to be dead in the water.  Then, Coufal picked up his second yellow card (both in stoppage time by the way) so things were still exciting.  West Ham keeper Areola committed a foul in the box a minute later to set up a PK for Sheffield.  Dennis and I tend to think keepers get too much of the benefit on the doubt on calls in the box but even we're not convinced this was correct call.  See for yourself here. It's a long clip because Areola had to be replaced Fabianski and it was a full five minutes before the kick was taken.  McBurnie converted it and Sheffield grabbed a welcome point.  

Hard To Caraboa It

Chelsea made short work of Middlesbrough's 1-0 lead, cruising to 6-1 win in the second leg for a 6-2 aggregate win.  Not much to see here.  Dennis said it well:

VAR has reviewed the ruling on the couch and the decision of nap has been confirmed.

Fulham - Liverpool was a better watch.  One wonders what might have happened if Fulham had showed up a little earlier.  Liverpool added to the 1-0 lead they carried into the second leg but not much else happened in the first half.  Fulham got more serious in the second half and closed the deficit with a goal in the 76th minute. An equalizer was not in the cards so we are looking at a Chelsea - Liverpool final.  

Chaos-on-Tyne

Newcastle's struggles on the pitch and financial strains off the field have led to a chaotic January transfer window, with names of potential departures and arrivals flying all over the place.  So far the only actual transaction is the departure of Javier Manquillo, who hasn't seen much action this year anyway.  But we've heard tell that Trippier, Wilson, Almiron and Guimaraes could be headed elsewhere.  The idea is that they can't make any big moves without generating some cash by selling current players.  Right now the most likely of those looks to be Almiron leaving for Saudi Arabia.  We would not be happy with any of those losses.  But more than anything, I would be annoyed at any move that sacrificed future success for a better finish this year.  This season is gone.   The Magpies could have fallen out of the top half of the table over the weekend but were spared by the Wolves 0-0 draw with Brighton.  I think ownership is on the same page based on their rejection of the Kalvin Phillips loan as too expensive. I am hopeful they don't do something dumb in the closing days of the transfer window.

FA Cup Weekend and Mid-week Matchweek 22

The 16 fourth round matches are conveniently (or maybe not) spread out over five days from Thursday to Monday for our viewing pleasure.  The field includes 15 Premier League sides, 14 Championship sides, two League Two teams and one National League South (6th tier) squad.  In other words, not a lot of minnows left.  And I won't say every fixture is mouth watering.

Things kick off Thursday at 2:45 with Bournemouth hosting Swansea.  On Friday, the schedule makers have done us absolutely no favors by putting the two most interesting fixtures of the round against each other.  Chelsea - Aston Villa start at 2:45 while Spurs - Man City kick off just 15 minutes later.  Seriously?  You had five days to work with and these two end up in the same time slot.

Saturday is a bit crowded but I can see getting up at 7:30 to see Ipswich Town and Maidstone United (the sixth tier side).  There are four 10 am matches - Leicester City vs Birmingham might be the best of that lot.  The day concludes with Newcastle on the road at Craven Cottage to face Fulham. We are not expecting an easy time there.

If you really like derbys, then you might be willing to get up at 6:45 Sunday morning to catch West Brom - Wolves.  

Providing some evidence that maybe they do understand their audience, the schedulemakers did give Wrexham a time slot all to themselves.  The Dragons will take on Blackburn Rovers at 2:45 on Monday.

Probably won't be wild celebrations like this in
the Aston Villa - Newcastle rematch (Getty Images)

Then we move on to EPL Matchweek 22, which will play out Tuesday-Thursday.  So they gave everybody one weekend off but immediately followed it with a mid-week fixture?  That doesn't sound like much of a winter break.  Our attention will clearly be on the BFS derby Tuesday at 3:15 on USA.  Recall that Newcastle were a 5-1 winner in the reverse fixture back in August at Saint James' Park.  That match remains the leading candidate for the "Most Puzzling Result of the Year."  It will be a miracle if the Magpies grab a draw here.  Wednesday's choice looks like Liverpool - Chelsea at 3:15 on Peacock.  Thursday we will likely go with Wolves - Man United at 3:15 on USA. The full fixture list is here; hard to do multiple matches with that schedule but we'll probably manage to get a couple in each day. Even if the weather improves.

It's Not Pessimism If It's True

With Newcastle surprisingly up 2-1 at half time versus Man City, I confidently predicted to Dennis a 2-4 loss.  Pessmistic perhaps but also grounded in the reality that 1)Newcastle had no bench and 2) City would be bringing in Kevin DeBruyne around the 60th minute.  In fact, KDB entered the match in the 69th minute.  He scored in the 74th minute, then assisted on the winning goal in the 91st minute.  Okay, I was way off, it was only a 2-3 loss.  

Probably a great watch for the neutrals (and City fans obviously), with the comeback and five quality goals.  Silva's cheeky backheel at 26 minutes, after a spell of dominance by the visitors, boded poorly for home side.  That's why the sequence of well-taken shots by Isak at 35 minutes and Gordon at 37 minutes were stunners.  Game on.  Well, sort of.  The second half was like waiting for a bomb to go off.  You could see the Newcastle players getting leggy.  DeBruyne's equalizer was study in finesse over power and Bobb's game winner, while partly the result of a lucky deflection, was some deft footwork.  We reluctantly make it this week's YouTubeableMoment; the finish was sublime but so was DeBruyne's entry pass into the box.  Sometimes you have to give the other guy credit.

Fighting Fire With A Water Pistol

He's got Jack Grealish hair now but still scores like KDB
Getty Images

In no way do I mean to demean Lewis Hall or Eddie Howe (or Guardiola for that matter), but the how telling is it that when Guardiola brought in Kevin DeBruyne, Newcastle's best move was to counter by subbing out Anthony Gordon for the 17-year old Hall?    Doesn't feel like that was one guy outcoaching another but just one guy with a better arsenal.  As Dennis notes, "Pep is brilliant.  He brought on the best player in the world and his team won.  I never would have thought to make that move."

BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K sends along this read from Football365.  It's a long but worthwhile collection of conclusions from the match.  I will disagree on a few points.  On No. 10, the author discusses how the injury to Ederson on one of those delayed offside flags may affect the issue.  Fair point that VAR means there will be a directive to ARs to hold the flag to let the play unfold.  Except, the threshold could be way tighter. For example, the directive could be if you see space between the attacker and the defender, put the flag up right away.  The issue isn't going away but it can be much less problemmatic.

On No. 15 the author suggests that Newcastle's response to the injuries and absences by "bleating about the 'rules' stopping them from buying the league really isn't going to cut it."  Okay, maybe we don't need to "bleat" about, but it is a fact that Newcastle cannot spend their way out of the current situation.  The league is clearly serious about enforcing the Financial Fair Play rules (well, unless you're Man City) so the restrictions are real.

Draws Good and Bad, But Mostly Bad

Moreno's shot found the back of the net but the goal
was chalked off for offside (Getty Images)

Three of the other four matches ended in draws.  Aston Villa can't be too pleased about a 0-0 draw with Everton, even if it was at Goodison Park.  The only silver lining there might be that the old Villa would have contrived to lose that match.  Vincent Kompany's Burnley were minutes away from a big three points against relegation rival Luton Town, only to see Carlton Morris level things in the 92nd minute; sure one point wasn't terrible but all three would have significantly brightened Burnley's chance of staying up.  Finally, in the old days a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford would have been more than satisfactory for Tottenham.  Off of United's recent form, Spurs might have been thinking more.  On the other hand, rallying twice from deficits while playing without Son doesn't sound all that bad.

In the only other weekend match, Chelsea continued to underwhelm, ekeing out a 1-0 win at home against Fulham.  We note that the only goal was a PK, called on the softest of touches against Sterling, who made a five-course meal of the foul.  

If At First You Don't Succeed

You get a mid-week FA Cup replay.  We had eight of them spread out between Tuesday and Wednesday.  For whatever reason, ESPN+ limited our choices Bristol City vs West Ham on Tuesday and Blackpool vs Nottingham Forest on Wednesday.  Happily enough, they both turned out to be entertaining.  West Ham fell behind in the third minute on a clusterfk of a screw-up (seen here) in the back.  Benrahma made things even more difficult for the Hammers, getting sent off for a straight red in the 51st minute.  Made for a close match but Bristol City held on for the 1-0 win.  

Nottingham Forest looked in control, taking a 2-0 lead early in the second half.  Blackpool gamely fought back to send the match into extra time (unlike the first match, the replay has to have a winner).  Chris Wood was the difference maker, slotting the game winner in the 110th minute.  Highly entertaining stuff.  

Note that Wolves - Brentford also went into extra time, with Wolves getting the game winner on a PK.  So here's the final tally for the third round by division

Division                        Wins   Losses

Premier League                15         5

Championship                  14        10

League 1                           0          6

League 2                           2          5

National League                 0          3

National League South       1          0 

Fourth round matches are Thursday - Monday January 25-29

 

Forest Green Sightings

We saw two more Forest Green players in FA Cup action, with Scott McKenna coming on to shore up Nottingham Forest's defense in their 3-2 win over Blackpool and George Tanner doing well as part of a back three in Bristol City's 1-0 upset over West Ham.

The virtual version acquitted itself reasonably well in a five-game gauntlet that featured consecutive matches against Tottenham, Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United.  We managed to collect seven points in wins over Liverpool and Chelsea plus a draw with Spurs.  Arsenal was only a 0-1 defeat, although stats look really bad.  The Man United game was a 1-4 blowout.  That holiday performance was enough to keep us in third for the time being.  We celebrated with a totally frustrating 0-0 away draw against Championship Division Scunthorpe that earns us a mid-week replay for the right to face Man United in the 4th round.  Woo-hoo.

Second Half of Split Match Week

Frankly, not quite as exciting as last weekend.  For whatever reason, the schedule makers have again eschewed the 10 am time slot favor of one match at 7:30 and a second at 12:30.  Must be people who like to get Saturday errands done.  Anyway, we start with a London derby at 7:30 between Arsenal and Crystal Palace on USA; that's followed by the NBC Feature match at 12:30.  Sunday has Sheffield United hosting West Ham at 9 and Bournemouth versus Liverpool at 11:30; you can catch both of those on USA.  The drawn out match week ends on Monday with Brighton - Wolves at 2:45 also on USA.

Not a lot to work with there.  Brentford will welcome back Ivan Toney from his eight month suspension for gambling, which should do wonders for the Bees attack and might help them break their five game losing streak.  The Monday game might be interesting.

Don't forget the second leg of the Carabao Cup midweek semis.  On Tuesday, Chelsea host Middlesbrough, trailing 0-1.  Liverpool travel to Fulham on Wednesday, bringing a 2-1 lead into Craven Cottage.  

Wish I had some additional bandwidth to cover the Africa Cup of Nations or the Asian Cup.  All I know right now is that it's leaving a number of teams short on personnel.  You can catch a couple of Africa Cup games every day at 12 and 3 pm on BeIN Sports.  

Crisis Averted - For Now

Damn, got a decent case of COVID.  I have a doctor's note excusing me from blogging this week but I can work my way through a few items.

Magpies post-match picture on the pitch in front of
traveling fans did not sit well with some

A fairly decisive 3-0 for Newcastle over Sunderland at the Stadium of  Light likely takes the spotlight, however briefly, off Eddie Howe.  There were many reasons to think the visit wouldn't go well - Newcastle's recent form, away match, a derby, FA Cup, etc.  Kind of amazing to me that Sunderland came out expecting that all those factors would be enough for them to secure the win.  They actually seemed surprised that the Magpies played hard.  The final score is mildly flattering to Newcastle (xG was only 1.36 -.65) , so we shouldn't get too carried away with the result.  However, there was little doubt as the better side when the final whistle blew.  Of course it came with a price - another injury to Joelinton.

Not A Good Weekend For Minnows

Part of the magic of the FA Cup is supposed to be the surprises that the lower division sides (the minnows) occasionally spring on the bigger clubs.  Not so much this time.  Of the 24 matches with a winner, I count only three as upsets and two of them were mild at best.

Sheffield Wednesday are just 13 places below Cardiff City in the Championship Division so that's not much of an upset.  Wrexham are in the league below Shrewsbury but the difference between the two is actually just 12 places (Shrewsbury 15th in League 1 and Wrexham 3rd in League 2) so the Dragons 1-0 win is hardly a shocker.  We make the late game winner in that one this week's YouTubeableMoment.    The third one is legit, a real doozy that probably went under the radar.  National League South (6th tier) Maidstone bested League 1 Stevenage; the difference there is - wait, carry the one - 68 places. Yeah, the 51st ranked team was lucky enough to get the 95th ranked team but couldn't get the job done.  Ouch.  Meanwhile, number 4 Arsenal got stuck with number 1 Liverpool and have gracefully exited the competition.

Here's what we have so far:

Division                        Wins    Draws    Losses

Premier League                11         7            2

Championship                   11         4            9

League 1                            0         3            6

League 2                            1         1            5

National League                  0         1            2

National League South        1         0            0

Some of the draws may turn into Ws for a few lower division sides but we could be looking at a round of 32 with as few as three teams outside the top two divisions.  

Poor As A Two-Syllable Word

ESPN has the FA and Carabao Cup action so we have been spared the "clown show" of CBS/Paramount studio coverage (Micah Richards, you're still not funny).  Mostly enjoying Craig Burnley's observations but especially like hearing him describe a side's performance as "pooh-ah."  Also, I laughed when he pleaded with Middlesbrough to come up with a decent performance in the home leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea; he basically said there would be no point in covering the second leg if they didn't.  Fortunately, Boro came through with a 1-0 result, leaving all to play for in the second leg.

Forest Green Players in Action

Things could have been a lot worse for Middlesbrough
if not for Matt Clarke; he's done well for my Forest Green too
Photo: Clive Brunskill, Getty Images

Based on my review of lineups, three of my FM Forest Green players were in FA Cup action this weekend.  Matt Clarke was a rock on defense for Middlesbrough as they made life difficult for Aston Villa; the Villans ended up squeaking out a 1-0 win on a late deflected shot.  Striker Aaron Collins made a substitute appearance as Bristol Rovers drew with Norwich City. And there was Harvey Elliott playing for Liverpool against Arsenal; not his best day as the Reds looked a bit better after he departed.  Scott McKenna was on the bench but did not play for Nottingham Forest in their draw with Blackpool.

Speaking of Forest Green, I did fall behind a bit the last few months but am almost caught up.   We sit third in the table following a confounding sequence of results.  A frustrating 0-0 draw with last place Burnley on the heels of a tepid 1-0 win at home vs mid-table AstonVilla left me wondering what was up.  But then we got a 1-1 draw with Tottenham and a big 2-0 win at home against Liverpool that moved us from 5th to 3rd.  Our next three matches are Arsenal (1st), Chelsea (4th) and Man United (6th) so maybe some fall off is in the cards.

Split Weekend

The EPL offers the clubs a little break from the congested holiday schedule with their version of the NFL bye week.  Matchweek 21 is spread over the next two weekends so everybody gets a week off.  Of course, the value of the off week is considerably diluted when seven of the clubs have to fit in an FA Cup replay on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Still, I guess it's useful to not have three matches in eight days.

Newcastle are right back in the firing lines, hosting Man City Saturday at 12:30 for the NBC feature match.  Even with homefield "advanatage," Opta has this at 19/26/55 favor City.   Haaland might not play so maybe that will keep the score down.

Friday has a great relegation six-pointer, with 19th place Burnley hosting 18th place Luton Town; that's at 2:45 on USA.  Not sure why, with a wide open day, they put Chelsea - Fulham at 7:30 on Saturday morning but at least it's on USA so you can DVR and watch it when you're awake.  Sunday's two fixtures look good too.  At 9 am on USA we have Everton - Aston Villa; while we expect a W for the visitors, this is tighter than you might think (Opta has is 31/29/40 for Villa).  Also looking forward to Man United - Tottenham at 11:30 on Peacock.  Since it's at Old Trafford, United are favored but this should be a good one.

Don't forget FA Cup replays on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Choices are here.

That's all I got.  Blame any errors on COVID brian.

Looking Like Last Year

Just one match week to report on so that means just one Newcastle loss to discuss.  We're here a day early since FA Cup action starts on Thursday.

Newcastle's one loss was a strange one for sure, notable for perhaps the least positive of reasons.  Since they started keeping track of expected goals in the 2010/11 season, this was the highest xG ever recorded by one team - 7.27.  As noted here, it wasn't by a narrow margin either - the next highest is 5.87.  Newcastle were scrambling from the opening whistle.  One goal was called back for offside, Salah missed a PK so the halftime score was incredibly 0-0.  Salah took care of that early in the second half but surprisingly, the Magpies struck back in less than five minutes.  Two goals in rapid succession by Jones and Gakpo opened up a 3-1 gap but Botman got one of those back.  A dodgy PK call (not clear if Dubravka actually touched Jota but if he did the contact was minimal and Jota didn't go down until about an hour after the contact) gave Salah another chance from the spot and he didn't miss this one.  Liverpool had 34 shots, 15 on target.  It's really hard to complain too much about Taylor's PK calls given that the match should have been a blowout.

To their credit, for all the time that they spent defending, Newcastle didn't really park the bus.  They weren't afraid to press forward in those rare moments when they had the advantage.  It was a car crash that you really should have looked away from but were too fascinated by what was happening.  Newcastle are rapidly spinning towards irrelevance, the place where a side is out of contention for Europe but in no danger of relegation.

It Wasn't Supposed To Be This Hard

Ollie Watkins is puzzled that Villa are level with 
Burnley despite a man advantage

Already up 2-1 against 19th place Burnley, Aston Villa got another boost when Sander Berge was sent off in the 56th minute.  Game over, right?  Um, no.  The Clarets proceeded to level the match in the 71st minute so it dragged toward stoppage time all square.  Fortunately, the Villans got help from a former teammate when Aaron Ramsey kicked Jhun Duran in the box.  Not the most egregious of fouls but not a clear and obvious error.  Douglas Luiz dispatched the PK and Aston Villa came away with a 3-2 win.  Once again we are left with how to spin this.  Is it that Aston Villa are living on borrowed time and aren't quite as good as they seem or are they simply figuring out how to win with less than their best?  I guess both is possible.

Beleaguered Managers

Checking in on the managers under stress, we see that Roy Hodgson's Crystal Palace got a 3-1 win over Brentford so that might take some of the pressure off for him.  On the other hand, Man United 2-1 lost at Nottingham Forest, putting Erik ten Hag back in the driver's seat for the sack race.  Eddie Howe's situation is a bit more nuanced.  No one expected a result at Anfield so the 4-2 loss doesn't really change anything.  But six losses in seven keeps him on the hot seat.  His fate may rest with the FA Cup match against bitter rival Sunderland on Saturday.

BFS Jinx?

After writing glowingly of Everton's results after the points deductions, recent performance hasn't been so good as the Toffees have endured three straight losses.  To be fair, the streak includes a 2-1 loss to Spurs and a 3-1 loss to Man City so we'll try not to overreact in the other direction.  However, we note that they have slipped back to 17th place, just one point out of the relegation zone.  Further, there doesn't appear to be any specific timetable on the appeal of the 10-point deduction.  Stay tuned for a bumpy ride.

Top to Bottom

Arsenal stumbled badly at Fulham, losing 2-1 and managed just three shots on goal.  That meant both Aston Villa and Man City (2-0 winners versus Sheffield United) slipped past the Gunners into second and third respectively.  Spurs, after a tough 3-1 win over Bournemouth, sit just one point out of the top four.  It's a bit of drop to 6th to find West Ham, who have four straight clean sheets. 

 All three clubs in the relegation zone lost so there was no change at the bottom.  

I Miss 538

They had so much good data and much of it was downloadable.  A prime example is looking at the holiday fixture performance for every team.  I could download results (and expected points) to a spreadsheet and have a calculation of who over or under performed during the holidays in a few minutes.  This time I had to do it by hand and the "expected points" are my own guesses.  With that said, here's the table:

Teams are ranked from highest to lowest based on the percentage of expected points they actually got.  Rating the holiday period, adjusting the schedule for degree of difficulty as it were.  It does offer a different perspective.  Sure, Man City grabbed 11 points but they dropped points they should have gotten in a loss to Aston Villa and a draw with Crystal Palace. Nottingham Forest grabbed only seven points but realistically were looking at just two points in a fixture list that included Everton, Fulham, Wolves, Spurs, Bournemouth, Newcastle and Man United.  Luton Town at the top seems a little strange since they only got six but they were looking at a bleak Christmas.  Speaking of Man United, they surprised me in exceeding Newcastle's underwhelming holiday, with losses to Bournemouth, West Ham and Nottingham Forest. Brentford weren't projected for all that much joy and they got even less than expected.  

Managers Who Can

BFS Artistic Director Laura O. sends along this link showing that sometime those who teach can also do. 

FA Cup Weekend

This is the weekend that Premier League sides enter the FA Cup.  Always looking to recycle, you can click on this BFS post from 2014 for a some explanation and history on the competition.

Newcastle have an interesting draw as they will travel to Sunderland for their first match of competition.  This is a long and bitter rivalry which has been dormant due to the two sides not having been in the same division since 2015/16.  The oddsmakers have the Magpies with 56% chance of winning and 22% chance of a draw.  Sounds encouraging but it's away and it's the FA Cup and it's Sunderland.  

The quaint format of no seeds, as described in the old post, gives us with the ridiculous third round match up between Liverpool and Arsenal (1st and 4th respectively). This is like Purdue meeting UConn in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament.  That fixture is 11:30 on Sunday.  There are three other matches between Premier League sides - Crystal Palace vs Everton (Thursday's match), Tottenham - Burnley (one of the Friday fixtures), and Brentford vs Wolves (also Friday).

The make up of the remaining sides is 20 EPL, 24 Championship Division, nine League 1, seven League 2, three Vanarama National League and one Vanarama National League South.  Spoiler alert for Wrexham fans but they play Shrewsbury Sunday at 9.   The full schedule is here.  Looks like this is an ESPN+ only event.

Though we've been known to rag on the FA Cup, you know we'll be watching.