Crisis Averted - For Now

Damn, got a decent case of COVID.  I have a doctor's note excusing me from blogging this week but I can work my way through a few items.

Magpies post-match picture on the pitch in front of
traveling fans did not sit well with some

A fairly decisive 3-0 for Newcastle over Sunderland at the Stadium of  Light likely takes the spotlight, however briefly, off Eddie Howe.  There were many reasons to think the visit wouldn't go well - Newcastle's recent form, away match, a derby, FA Cup, etc.  Kind of amazing to me that Sunderland came out expecting that all those factors would be enough for them to secure the win.  They actually seemed surprised that the Magpies played hard.  The final score is mildly flattering to Newcastle (xG was only 1.36 -.65) , so we shouldn't get too carried away with the result.  However, there was little doubt as the better side when the final whistle blew.  Of course it came with a price - another injury to Joelinton.

Not A Good Weekend For Minnows

Part of the magic of the FA Cup is supposed to be the surprises that the lower division sides (the minnows) occasionally spring on the bigger clubs.  Not so much this time.  Of the 24 matches with a winner, I count only three as upsets and two of them were mild at best.

Sheffield Wednesday are just 13 places below Cardiff City in the Championship Division so that's not much of an upset.  Wrexham are in the league below Shrewsbury but the difference between the two is actually just 12 places (Shrewsbury 15th in League 1 and Wrexham 3rd in League 2) so the Dragons 1-0 win is hardly a shocker.  We make the late game winner in that one this week's YouTubeableMoment.    The third one is legit, a real doozy that probably went under the radar.  National League South (6th tier) Maidstone bested League 1 Stevenage; the difference there is - wait, carry the one - 68 places. Yeah, the 51st ranked team was lucky enough to get the 95th ranked team but couldn't get the job done.  Ouch.  Meanwhile, number 4 Arsenal got stuck with number 1 Liverpool and have gracefully exited the competition.

Here's what we have so far:

Division                        Wins    Draws    Losses

Premier League                11         7            2

Championship                   11         4            9

League 1                            0         3            6

League 2                            1         1            5

National League                  0         1            2

National League South        1         0            0

Some of the draws may turn into Ws for a few lower division sides but we could be looking at a round of 32 with as few as three teams outside the top two divisions.  

Poor As A Two-Syllable Word

ESPN has the FA and Carabao Cup action so we have been spared the "clown show" of CBS/Paramount studio coverage (Micah Richards, you're still not funny).  Mostly enjoying Craig Burnley's observations but especially like hearing him describe a side's performance as "pooh-ah."  Also, I laughed when he pleaded with Middlesbrough to come up with a decent performance in the home leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Chelsea; he basically said there would be no point in covering the second leg if they didn't.  Fortunately, Boro came through with a 1-0 result, leaving all to play for in the second leg.

Forest Green Players in Action

Things could have been a lot worse for Middlesbrough
if not for Matt Clarke; he's done well for my Forest Green too
Photo: Clive Brunskill, Getty Images

Based on my review of lineups, three of my FM Forest Green players were in FA Cup action this weekend.  Matt Clarke was a rock on defense for Middlesbrough as they made life difficult for Aston Villa; the Villans ended up squeaking out a 1-0 win on a late deflected shot.  Striker Aaron Collins made a substitute appearance as Bristol Rovers drew with Norwich City. And there was Harvey Elliott playing for Liverpool against Arsenal; not his best day as the Reds looked a bit better after he departed.  Scott McKenna was on the bench but did not play for Nottingham Forest in their draw with Blackpool.

Speaking of Forest Green, I did fall behind a bit the last few months but am almost caught up.   We sit third in the table following a confounding sequence of results.  A frustrating 0-0 draw with last place Burnley on the heels of a tepid 1-0 win at home vs mid-table AstonVilla left me wondering what was up.  But then we got a 1-1 draw with Tottenham and a big 2-0 win at home against Liverpool that moved us from 5th to 3rd.  Our next three matches are Arsenal (1st), Chelsea (4th) and Man United (6th) so maybe some fall off is in the cards.

Split Weekend

The EPL offers the clubs a little break from the congested holiday schedule with their version of the NFL bye week.  Matchweek 21 is spread over the next two weekends so everybody gets a week off.  Of course, the value of the off week is considerably diluted when seven of the clubs have to fit in an FA Cup replay on Tuesday or Wednesday.  Still, I guess it's useful to not have three matches in eight days.

Newcastle are right back in the firing lines, hosting Man City Saturday at 12:30 for the NBC feature match.  Even with homefield "advanatage," Opta has this at 19/26/55 favor City.   Haaland might not play so maybe that will keep the score down.

Friday has a great relegation six-pointer, with 19th place Burnley hosting 18th place Luton Town; that's at 2:45 on USA.  Not sure why, with a wide open day, they put Chelsea - Fulham at 7:30 on Saturday morning but at least it's on USA so you can DVR and watch it when you're awake.  Sunday's two fixtures look good too.  At 9 am on USA we have Everton - Aston Villa; while we expect a W for the visitors, this is tighter than you might think (Opta has is 31/29/40 for Villa).  Also looking forward to Man United - Tottenham at 11:30 on Peacock.  Since it's at Old Trafford, United are favored but this should be a good one.

Don't forget FA Cup replays on Tuesday and Wednesday.   Choices are here.

That's all I got.  Blame any errors on COVID brian.