No Cup For You

Just because I wanted France and England to win doesn't mean I didn't enjoy the semis.  But a little more offense from both of them would have made the matches more interesting.

The Stifled Tower

MVH Candidate Cucurella was part 
of a defense that stifled France

Who replaced the French team we've been watching for weeks now with the uninspiring group we saw on Tuesday in the 2-0 loss to Spain?  The opening twenty minutes were inconclusive, with neither team distinguishing themselves offensively.  Lucas Digne then got called for a foul in the box, kicking Yamal in a sloppy attempt to clear the ball.  You can see the play here.  Some claim there was a Yamal handball before the kick but that simply isn't the case, as his arm is clearly tucked into his side.  Others have noted, fairly, that the play was not a goal scoring threat but is a PK simply because it happened inside the box.  

That is a known issue for the game - not all PKs are created equal.  This was early enough that France should have been able to rally but Les Bleus managed only .31 expected goals.  They looked lost.  Not enough of a tactician to know if Spain figured something out.  It is true that Spain's passing/possession ability make falling behind a bad idea.   No doubt they were the better team on Tuesday.

A Tuchel Lead Is the Most Dangerous

Djed Spence; Late entry into MVH race

England's streak of not making the final will extend to 60 years after they coughed up a 1-0 lead to Argentina.  The way they coughed up the lead is the story.  This article from The Athletic sums it up very nicely.  England got a goal against the run of play, then parked the bus and surrendered two late goals, including the game winner in stoppage time.

Recall that England protected a one goal lead with that strategy, down a man, against Mexico.  Why didn't it work here?  The short answer is that Argentina are not Mexico.  The longer answer, as discussed in the article, is that Mexico's attack consisted solely of dumping crosses into the box for Jimenez.  Five at the back made sense.  Argentina has shooters that can score from outside the box.  And, it gave Messi unfettered access to 85% of the pitch to work his magic.  The alternative would have been to become defensive but also ensure that they maintained some type of counterattacking threat to make Argentina work.  England didn't really have the personnel on the pitch to do so but it also looked like the directive would have been to stay deep anyway. So they'll play France for third place on Saturday.

What About That Parking the Bus?

BFS Lead Contractor Charlie O sends us this study on the strategy? A key passage notes:

This implies that when the leading team is playing more defensively (as suggested by having a compact convex hull), then the trailing team is more likely to take the next shot. This provides evidence that parking the bus is a poor strategy in closely contested matches.

I'll admit I didn't read every word but the problem I see with this study is that it needs to go at least two more steps.  By how much does the trailing team outscore, not outshoot, the leading team?  And more importantly, how often do teams win after parking the bus?   And, how about identifying the situations in which the strategy is more likely to be successful?  

What I like about the study is that analysts are recognizing that because pro players wear tracking monitors there is a wealth of data waiting out there for studies like this.

Now That I Have Your Attention

A popular internet meme this month has been what some wives have done to keep their husband's attention during the World Cup.  Here's a prime example.

Another internet meme, as exemplified by this article sent by BFS Ski Instructor Jeff K, has been less than stellar reviews of the Fox coverage of this tournament.  Yeah, it's better than last time but that's a low bar.  I've been mostly okay to good with the game announcers and color analysts but the studio stuff has been a thing to miss.

Finals Weekend

Opta has the "consolation" match (5 pm Saturday) at France 51%/England 25%/PKs 24%.  The final at 3 pm on Sunday is predicted at Spain 45/Argentina 26/PKs 29).  A reminder to readers not from these parts - East Rutherford is in New Jersey not New York no matter what you hear on TV.  Also, the smokey air is not New Jersey smog but was imported from Canada (thanks guys).  As for the pitch, well, they say the hot weather has greatly improved its playability.

Jeff H and I had the sobering thought that after this weekend, we go back to 1)MLS matches and 2) a team mired so far down in the standings, we are looking up at the abyss.