A Decidedly Mixed Bag

Noticeable variation in the quality of the Round of 16 matches, ranging from sleep-inducing (e.g. Spain - Portugal) to annoying (France - Paraguay) to riveting (Mexico - England).  

If It's Tuesday, We Must Have Lost to Belgium (apologies to Mel Stuart)

A tournament that had started so well for the USMNT ended with an inglorious thud.  Except for Tillman's free kick, there was no aspect of the US game that wasn't up to snuff in the 4-1 loss to Belgium.  Let's see.  Poor marking? Check. Inaccurate passing? Check. Easily dispossessed? Check. Keeper howler? Check. Lack of intensity?  Check.  I'm sure I missed other things but you get the picture. I'm skipping a personal post mortem but I suggest this analysis from ESPN. BFS Track and Field Consultant Jack W also sends along this assessment from sports psychologist Steve Magness; key phrase for me was that the US play was "hesitant and avoidant."

Two Wrongs Don't Make A Wright

In the last post we outlined how improper use of VAR got Folarin Balogun suspended for the match with Belgium.  He got reinstated by improper intervention from the White House; the sordid details are here.  Aside from attracting unwanted attention and giving the Belgians an added desire to kick the USMNT's butt, it also meant that Haji Wright would not make his first start in this World Cup.  The Belgians did not miss the opportunity to be snarky in post-match posts on social media.  Frankly, they can snark away after that bullshit move by the White House and FIFA.  Trump and his gang took the USMNT from a loveable underdog into a villain that the rest of world could not wait to see unceremoniously dumped from the tournament.

France Won By Not Being Provocated

If you can't beat them with talent, try shithousery
Photo: Buda Mendes/Getty Images

It's not a word Zlatan but we did understand what you meant.  Paraguay apparently decided their only hope of advancing against France was to go full 90 minute shithousery.  Push, pull, elbow, etc at every opportunity.  To some extent, it did work to slow the vaunted French attack, as Les Bleus could only manage a PK from Mbappe.   Paraguay were so interested in the extracurricular bullshit that they managed just five shots, one on target for an xG of .13.  This is not my beautiful game.  Made me ashamed that I was initially rooting for them to pull off an upset.  Good on the French for not being derailed by these tactics.  A more complete detailing of what went down is available here, including a discussion of how the referee's absolutely clueless game management allowed the shithousery to reach epic proportions.  

In Contrast - Mexico vs England

Referee Alireza Faghani handled an incredibly tough
assignment brilliantly (Photo:Reuters)

Make no mistake, the defensive tactics in this match were just as aggressive as France - Paraguay, but with two key differences.  For the most part, the challenges were hard but fair and in the context of the game.  Even the red card for Quansah, while clearly excessive force, wasn't malicious (though we note the use of slow motion replay again to assess intensity of the challenge).  Second, referee Alireza Faghani mostly managed the game superbly.  Not only did he get three key calls correct (Quansah sending off, PK for Gordon, PK on Kane), he made it clear that he was not going to put up with bullshit from either side.  The result - we could focus on a great soccer match.

And a hell of a match it was.  England went up two on a brace by Bellingham.  Quinones got one back by half time.  The Quansah sending off looked to have England in a pickle until Gordon got fouled in the box and the PK was neatly converted by Kane.  Harry then returned the favor with a foul of his own in the box so it was 3-2 at 70 minutes.  Mexico spent those last minutes dumping cross after cross into the box with no success - either wildly overhit, straight into Pickford's or turned away by the defense (nice work from Newcastle's Dan Burn).  So England survived the onslaught and advanced to the quarterfinals.

Spineless FIFA Part II

Mexican fans were up to their old crap of shouting a homophobic chant every time Jordan Pickford took a goal kick.  News reports confirm they did it in the Czechia and Ecuador matches as well.  Recall that FIFA has a three step protocol for dealing with this - pause, suspend, abandon.  No trace of any application of this policy so far, which sounds like par for the course for FIFA.

Admissible Evidence For VAR

Critics of VAR are having a field day with the disallowed Egyptian goal against Argentina.  You can see the play here.  Commentator Rob Green nearly lost his shit over the call; "A hundred yards away, someone stepping on someone's toe, is not why VAR was brought into the game."  Actually, it is, as you can see if you read the VAR Protocol section of IFAB's Laws of the Game.  Three relevant passages from that publication include:

The period of play before and after an incident that can be reviewed is determined by the Laws of the Game and VAR protocol.

Reviewable decisions include attacking team offence in the build-up to or scoring of the goal (handball, foul, offside etc.)

For decisions/incidents relating to goals, penalty/no penalty and red cards for denying an obvious goal-scoring opportunity (DOGSO), it may be necessary to review the attacking phase of play which led directly to the decision/incident; this may include how the attacking team gained possession of the ball in open play

Green minimized the foul and at first I saw his point; except not only did he step on the player's foot, he pulled his shirt.  The foul resulted in a change of possession.  The goal was scored 18 seconds after the foul in a flowing move that involved a long solo run and two excellent passes.  The change of possession led to a single attacking play that resulted in a goal.  It meets all the criteria for a reviewable play and Attia's shirt pull gave the opening to the referee to call a foul.  The quality of the goal is irrelevant though it certainly adds to the disappointment.  I will note that several current or former referees don't like the call, largely based on how Argentina had chances to break up the attack and were unable to.  Dr Joe Machnik, who's opinion I often disagree with, offers a pretty cogent argument for the plaintiff here.

Injury of the Tournament

England announced that Jordan Henderson is out for the rest of the tournament after sustaining an injury in the win over Mexico.  How's that?  I thought he didn't even play, although he managed to get himself a yellow card for shenanigans warming up near the touch line as a sub.  Apparently, he injured his wrist while falling as he climbed over the advertising boards in the post match celebration.  He had surgery and is done for this World Cup. 

He Didn't Even Need An MRI

This image was enough for Dennis to render a diagnosis

Within seconds of Amadou Onana leaving the pitch with the injury Dennis texted "Onana gonna miss the start of the season; calling it now."  After the match, the Belgium team doctor announced that he had ruptured his ACL.  That injury typically keeps a player sidelined for six to nine months.  Dennis correctly assessed the situation without the aid of an MRI, CT scan or any other imaging diagnostics.  Think of how much money we could save the health care system if we substituted his visual assessment over conventional and expensive imaging techniques.

Conversation That Sort Of Took Place

Dennis:  Why did Switzerland have Xhaka lead off in the penalty shoot out against Colombia?

Steve: Because you never want anyone to take the first shot for Granit.

Hourglass Is Not A Number

I guess you could figure out that's an "8"

Perhaps you've notice the "rune - style" numbers on the Norwegian kit.  As explained here, the numbers are based on the Elder Futhark.  That is not the name of Norwegian center back from the 1950s but rather the name of the oldest form of a runic alphabet.  This version was approved by FIFA; the 2024 version was deemed to be unreadable.  Looking at Sander Berge's number eight, I'm not sure this was that much of an improvement.

Conversation That Absolutely Did Take Place

Dennis: I see that Newcastle are trying to bring in an injured defender [Johan Manzambi]. Makes sense to skip the part where he gets hurt while playing for you.

Steve: Takes the guess work out of it.

That's some mane (Photo: Jerome Hicks/SipaUSA

MVH Candidate

BFS Director of Historical Programs Mackenzie W offers Marc Cucurella as a Most Valuable Hair candidate.

And Now the Quarterfinals

Matches Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Here's the line up, with the Opta prediction in parentheses ("home" team percentage chance to win/"visiting" team percentage chance to win/percent chance of play ending in a draw requiring a PK shootout):.

Thursday 4 pm - France vs Morocco (61.7/15.6/22.7)

Friday 3 pm - Spain vs Belgium (59.3/18.3/22.4)

Saturday 5 pm - Norway vs England ((25.5/50.1/24.5)

Saturday 9 pm - Argentina vs Switzerland (58.7//17.2/24.1)

I'm a bit surprised at the magnitude by which France are favored, basically the biggest overdog in the set.  Looks like I'm rooting for three underdogs and England. That said, I'd be okay with Norway advancing to the semis.  

Shameless Self- and Cross- Promotion

I’m still making music with my friend Chris Zimmerman, recording as Dreamer Lens. It took a while to finish but our latest album is now available at Spotify, Apple, Amazon, Pandora, YouTube Music etc. to stream or download. It’s called 66 (inspired by true events) and features original ambient/electronic/soundtrack songs recorded at Chris’s fully equipped, professional home studio. The album started as a three-hour improv/jam session that we edited down to 14 songs and 49 minutes, changing some of the sounds on the original recorded tracks and overdubbing some additional instrument tracks.

Chris and I hope you’ll give it a listen.

Hey, the World Cup has been littered with annoying commercial breaks, it was inevitable that it would happen here.

Only eight matches left.