Luck of the Geordies?

Newcastle enjoyed a little bit of luck, Aston Villa not so much.  

Beat the Forest for the Three

Clinical finisher? Schar got another one

This was feeling like deja vu all over again - giving up leads to go into halftime at 2-2 against a bottom five side.  Fortunately a nice take by Guimaraes and a perhaps generous no call on Dubravka yielded a 3-2 win for the Magpies over Nottingham Forest. I note the xG was .51-.97, indicating these were not the most obvious of goal scoring opportunities for either side and that Newcastle were maybe a bit lucky to get the win.  The goal by Bruno, though a low percentage shot, was a laser and we make it this week's  YouTubeableMoment.  The Dubravka incident, seen here, could have gone either way.  I'm happy that VAR did not intervene; that's one of those close ones where changing the call on the field feels like re-refereeing as opposed to correcting an obvious error.  The bottom half of the table is still closer than any European qualifying spots but things have been looking up.  

"A" For Effort But No Points

How to grade the Aston Villa 1-2 loss at home to Man United?  Zero points suggests less than a passing grade.  But, the performance was solid.  After Douglas Luiz leveled it in the 67th minute, you felt this was Aston Villa's match to win.  But they lost the plot toward the end and a late goal from McTominy meant United got all three points.  Stats - especially xG at 2.65-2.45 - say maybe Villa earned at least a point here.  That's twice now they have performed well against Man United and come away with nothing.  

We Ref, You Defend

How about you just play defense instead of
refereeing- Estupinan raises his arm and gets to
 Johnson too late to stop the goal

Wolves - Brentford (2-0 favor the Bees) wasn't awful but it was a poor second choice to Tottenham - Brighton. With the score 1-1 late in stoppage time and me scheduled to meet Michael B for a run after the match, I was prepared for him to be in a bad mood.  Next thing I see is that Spurs have gone up 2-1 in the 96th minute.  Brennan Johnson (fastest man in EPL?) has scored the game winner on a lovely feed from Son.  You can see the play here.  Michael immediately called my attention to how Brighton defender Estupinan raised his arm to call for offside, then failed to get back in time to cover Johnson.  Yeah, the raised arm probably didn't slow him that much but given how close Estupinan came to intercepting the pass, it could easily have been the difference.  I hope he gets a big fine.  Stick to defending because you are a lousy referee; the play wasn't even that close to being offside.

Status Quo at the Top

Didn't see Liverpool - Burnley but the Reds looked to have handled the Clarets easily enough in a 3-1 win.  Not that Everton were in danger of scoring but Man City didn't really finish off the Toffees until very late in their 2-0 win.  Though they took a half hour to get untracked, once Arsenal found the scoring touch it was lights out for West Ham.  The Gunners had 25 shots, 12 on goal to West Ham's five (only one on target) on their way to the 6-0, um, hammering.  So no change in the top three.

Dead Man Coaching?

Roy Hodgson: Why oh why didn't I take the blue pill?

Chelsea hardly distinguished themselves at Selhurst Park, beating Crystal Palace 3-1 on two stoppage time goals.  The xG was just 1.39-.75, hardly a dominating performance.  Still, even though the score flatters Chelsea and Palace were never really expecting a result here, Roy Hodgson's position is even more tenuous.  I've seen odds between 1/8 and 1/3 that he's the next to be sacked.  I can't imagine he survives a loss to Everton this weekend.

Uh oh, I was only kidding with the header but Hodgson did go to the hospital after taking ill during Thursday's practice.  Also, the board chair looked to have been ready to sack Hodgson today after meeting with Austrian Oliver Glasner.  Details are here.  Seems like by the time you read this on Friday, the change may have already been made.

Looking Up from the Abyss

So Sheffield United managed a big win this weekend - 3-1 over relegation rival Luton Town.  The three points got them level with Burnley but both are currently seven points from safety, more if Everton win their appeal of the points deduction.  In other words, the result was more about dragging Luton Town down than lifting Sheffield out of danger.

A New Beer for Newcastle Fans

An alternative to Newcastle Ale

Though I'm sure they've never heard of it across the pond, we've discovered a beer that could become the official Newcastle brew here at 6911.  It's called Magpie Hazy IPA, a tasty beer offered by Wissahickon Brewery.  I've always been partial to lagers and pilsners and such but lately I've come to realize that hazy IPAs aren't as hoppy as I thought.  I think the California trip has something to do with it as well.  I'm not saying it will replace better-known Newcastle Brown Ale but it is a great change of pace.

A Non-descript Weekend in February

The fixtures for Matchweek 25 don't scream "must-see TV."  I kid you not, the most compelling match looks like Everton - Crystal Palace on Monday at 3 pm on USA.  A Palace win would put some distance between them and the relegation zone, not to mention buy Hodgson at least another week.  A win for Everton would likely lift them out of the bottom three.  

In years past, Man City - Chelsea (12:30 feature match on Saturday on NBC) would be a big deal.  For this one, Opta has City at 64% chance of winning and 22% chance of a draw.  Doing the math gets you a 14% chance of Chelsea winning, which sounds about right.  

The only match I can find with the favorite at less than 40% is Fulham - Aston Villa (32/29/39), one of the Saturday 10 am matches on Peacock.  That seems a little pessimistic about Villa's chances; I guess maybe because it's at Craven Cottage.  In any case, it would have been our choice for 10 am except we'll be watching Newcastle host Bournemouth at the same time.  The Magpies do look to be solid favorites here, even with Wilson and Isak both likely out.  Your other 10 am choices are Burnley Arsenal (USA), Nottingham Forest - West Ham (Peacock - actually this one might be close too) and Tottenham - Wolves (Peacock).  Oh, and you can get up at 7:30 for Brentford - Liverpool; I know the Bees are better at home but this looks like a Liverpool W.

Sunday isn't any better.  At 9 we have Sheffield United - Brighton and 11:30 is Luton Town - Man United.  Both are on USA.

There are two EPL mid-week matches. On Tuesday, Man City host Brentford (make-up match from when City were at the Club World Cup) and Wednesday has Liverpool - Luton Town; they are playing their Matchweek 26 contest early in the week because Liverpool play Chelsea in the EFL Cup final next Sunday.

Full slate of European stuff too, including Arsenal - Porto on Wednesday.   

Still pretty much impossible not to find a game any day of the week.