Ich Bin Ein Magpie

We'll start with doings at the south end of the table.  After leaving St. James' Park with a draw, Dennis turned into a full-time Newcastle fan since the Magpies still had fixtures with Aston Villa's main relegation rivals - Bournemouth, West Ham and Watford.  I did suggest to him that any strategy relying on Newcastle was risky to say the least.  Like depending on Susan Collins to vote the right way.

Almiron: He did so well, including the finish
Photograph: Glyn Kirk/NMC Pool/PA Images

But his faith was rewarded on Wednesday as Newcastle, not looking like any Magpie side I can remember, cut through Bournemouth 4-1 at Vitality Stadium.  Dwight Gayle turned a mistake into a quick goal at five minutes and Sean Longstaff added a second at 30 minutes after Saint-Maximin schooled three defenders in the box.  This being Newcastle though, I spent the next 30 minutes waiting for the other shoe to drop.  And it almost did as the Cherries came out much stronger in the second half.  But Almiron put a third in at 57 minutes, basically walking through the Bournemouth defense and slotting an unchallenged shot into the corner of the net.  At that point I was forced to concede that a draw was a real possibility.  An equally nifty and easy play by loanee Valentino Lazaro completed Newcastle's day at 77 minutes, which meant Ryan Dan Gosling's stoppage time goal was merely annoying.

On Sunday, Southampton had put a surprising 3-1 loss on Watford at Vicarage Road, taking expected points away from the Hornets.  So despite Aston Villa's 0-1 loss to Wolves (in which the Villans were not awful, just incapable of finishing - and which was going to be a loss anyway), Dennis's week wasn't going too badly.  Until Wednesday evening that is.  Chelsea, looking good but by no means a lock for a CL spot, stumbled badly, 2-3, at West Ham.  Down 1-2, Willian had looked to at least get the Blues a draw with a goal at 72 minutes.  But a smash and grab counterattack from the Hammers yielded a late goal from Yarmalenko and all three points for West Ham.  The damage to Chelsea's Champions League ambitions was no where near as bad as what it did to Aston Villa.

Using 538 projections, but forcing wins, losses and draws (if winning percentage differential is less than 10 - I call it a draw), I get the following:

West Ham         39 (9 points in final six matches)
Watford             35 (7 points in final six matches)
Aston Villa       28 (1 point in final six matches)
Bournemouth   27 (0 points in final six matches)
Norwich           21 (0) points in final six matches)

To quote Scrooge McDuck - tell me these events can yet be changed.  Maybe.  To start with, besides a draw with Crystal Palace, Villa have to beat West Ham in London on the final day of the season. They also need Newcastle to beat Watford (538 has Watford favored to win) in Week 35 and Watford have to [draw/lose with Norwich in Week 34 (projected as a win) and] lose to West Ham (projected as a draw) in Week 36.  Plus Watford can't pick up any unexpected points against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal.  Recalculating based on the three [four] changes (Villa over West Ham, Newcastle over Watford, Norwich draw with Watford and West Ham over Watford) we get this revised table [updated to reflect math error!?]:

West Ham         41
Aston Villa       31
Watford            29
Bournemouth   27
Norwich           22

Dennis's reaction when I went through the details.

[Update: To clarify, it wasn't a math error.  I had Villa starting at 28, not 27 points.  So in addition to the original three favorable results, Villa also need Watford to lose to or draw with Norwich.  Alternatively, Villa could grab a draw or win at Everton. Either are equally long odds - about 40%.] We can also develop a scenario in which Villa catch West Ham but finish behind Watford but frankly that requires a lot more favorable results (like West Ham not beating Norwich) so I'm going to leave that out for the moment.


The Horse Had Already Left the Barn

On Thursday, Man City rolled all over Liverpool 4-0 in a match that back in August might have looked like a big fixture.  But with the Reds clinching the title last week, all it meant was that City closed the gap to 20 points.  To be fair, Man City had some decent reasons, even leaving aside pride, to push hard in this match because Liverpool are chasing several records that they currently hold.  For example, the win means that Liverpool cannot match City's record of 16 away wins in a season.  Liverpool still have a shot at most points in a season (100), biggest winning margin (19)and most victories in a season (32) so we can maybe understand City's intensity here.  On the other hand, the barn door was left open for a long time...


Correct Call, Stupid Rule

So VAR took another hit on Thursday when Spurs saw an equalizing goal against Sheffield United ruled for handling.  Except it's not the fault of VAR, it's the new handling rule.  Sheffield had just scored but Kane and Spurs leveled things, or so they thought, almost immediately.  But the ball had bounced off the arm of Lucas Moura on its way to Kane.  No doubt it was unintentional, as Moura was falling down at the time.  But the rule couldn't be clearer:

A goal scored or created with the use of the hand or arm will be disallowed even if it is accidental. The handball rule does not consider intent by a player. 

The guys in the booth got it wrong.  Back in the studio, Kyle Martino and Robbie Musto got it exactly right.  The call was absolutely correct given the rules.  But the rules are stupid.  Musto's suggestion was to modify the rule so that goals will be ruled out if they go in directly from handling, accidental or not, but unintentional handling in the build-up shouldn't be called.  The incident and the analysis can be seen here, as this week's YouTubeableMoment(s).

The 1-3 loss is a gut punch to Spurs' Champions League hopes, especially with Man United (easy 3-0 win over Brighton) and Wolves (eking past Aston Villa) getting three points.  The Special One was coy in his feelings about the call, citing the fear of suspension, but he also laid into the team for not responding better to the adverse call.


Newcastle Unveil 10-0-0 Formation

The line up sheet showed a 3-4-3 for Newcastle against Man City in the FA Cup quarterfinal match but we knew that really meant a 5-2-3.  But within minutes it was clearly a 9-0-1 as City put the Magpies under the gun.  Not too long after that, even Andy Carroll was playing behind the ball and the switch to a 10-0-0 was complete.  Did it work?  Yes and no.  Man City could only manage a 2-0 win and one of those was a PK after a stupid push by Fabian Schar in the box late in the first half.  But was it football?  I think the first half possession was 82-18.  Final stats were 76/24, 20/4 total shots and 4/1 shots on goal. I get protecting against a big hit to goal differential in a league contest but not sure why it would matter in a Cup quarterfinal.  Unless Steve Bruce had hoped to keep the match within reach until late with a chance to snatch a late goal.  Whatever.  It was essentially unwatchable.

Not so the other three quarterfinals.  Chelsea - Leicester wasn't awesome but it was close.  Ross Barkley provided the difference with a 63rd minute goal.  Norwich gave Man United far more than expected and Cantwell's goal at 75 minutes was enough to force the match into extra time.  With the prospect of spot kicks looming, Harry Maguire spared us that dreaded process with a poacher-like effort to slip the ball past Tim Krul.  Norwich tenacity was all the more notable given that the Canaries played the extra time down a man.  The script at Bramall Lane was nearly similar.  Underdogs Sheffield United looked to have forced extra time with McGoldrick's goal at 87 minutes.  But Dani Ceballos slipped one inside the near post to send the Gunners onto the semi-finals.

So we will see Arsenal - Man City on July 18 and Man United - Chelsea on July 19, both matches at Wembley.


Abstentia?

Arlo White keeps saying Liverpool clinched the title in "abstentia."  Can't find this on the internet.  Does it mean a state of not drinking?  A small country that was formerly part of the USSR?  I don't know.

Another random observation. I swear ESPN perfectly simulated a restless crowd at St. James' Park during the 0-2 FA Cup loss in which Newcastle played the role of a punch drunk sparring partner to Man City. 


I Mee Scored

Not a grammatical error.  Ben "Eff" Mee got a great header goal in the otherwise unnoteworthy 1-0 win for Burnley over Crystal Palace.  Not saying they were in flip flops but not too much at stake there.  


Back to Double Duty

Triple if you have any plans to watch the MLS tournament.

Match week 33 plays out over Saturday-Monday and Match week 34 runs from Tuesday-Thursday.  I'd go with Wolves - Arsenal as the match of week 33 (Saturday 12:30 NBCSN).  Aside from just plain enjoying watching the Wolves play, this is a big test for them if they really fancy themselves as Champions League participants.  Same for Arsenal - a loss here might leave them too far back.  Surprisingly - to me anyway - 538 has the Gunners as big underdogs here.  And NBC, some Indy car race means you bumped the feature match of the weekend to NBCSN?  What's up with that?  Guess motor car racing fits the July 4th holiday better than English football.  

Show of hands.  Who's getting up at 7:30 on Saturday for Norwich - Brighton.  That's what I thought.  Man United hosting Bournemouth at 10 am (NBCSN) has implications at the top and bottom of the table, as does Chelsea - Watford at 3:00 on NBCSN.  They look like comfortable home wins; Dennis certainly hopes so.  Leicester, looking for a boost to nail down their spot, face - Crystal Palace (10 am NBC Gold).

Newcastle - West Ham (9:15 NBCSN) may be the best of Sunday's fare.  With Aston Villa traveling to Anfield (11:30 NBCSN), Dennis will be hoping for better results elsewhere - looking at you Man United, Chelsea and Newcastle.  Sheffield United face a stern test at Burnley (7 am Sunday NBCSN) to see if they really are going to contend for a Champions League berth.  The matchweek concludes on Monday with Spurs hosting Everton (3 pm NBCSN); I would think anything less than a win for Tottenham is the end of Champions League hopes.

I'm going with Arsenal - Leicester (3:15 Tuesday) as the pick for Week 34; aside from looking like a close match, the implications for a top four or five or six finish could be massive.  Dennis and I will be closely following Watford - Norwich (1 pm Tuesday) and West Ham - Burnley (1 pm Wednesday), looking for dropped points from Aston Villa's relegation rivals.  Especially since Villa have to take on surging Man United on Thursday (3:15) and are not likely to get any points themselves.  I would also recommend Sheffield United - Wolves (1 pm Wednesday) as the two upstart clubs face each other.

I will admit to skepticism about the MLS Is Back Tournament.  Feels very gimmicky and basically a way to get the players some conditioning before the "season" starts.  Group stage runs from July 8 to July 23.  Final is set for August 11.  Details on the brackets and schedule are here.  Firm details on what happens after the tournament are lacking, though there is still noise about an 18-22 game regular season starting in late August.

This hot weather sure makes it easy to stay inside and watch matches.

My Project Restart Cup Runneth Over

Like someone after a fast who overeats and gets a food coma, I have perhaps overindulged in the last week.  Through Thursday, I have seen all but two of the 22 matches.  Yes, I failed to heed the words of Dr. Ian Malcolm.   Not saying it wasn't worth it, just maybe some moderation would have been better.  So let's check out the results.


Black Lives Matter

Before the first ball was kicked, I had this week's YouTubeableMoment.  Besides the moment of silence before the match to remember covid-19 victims and the BLM patches and BLM on the jersey backs instead of names, check out what happened when Michael Oliver blew the whistle for the Aston Villa - Sheffield United match to start.  Watching live, with no hint that this was the plan, seeing the players take a knee in unison like that was an affecting moment.  Well done.

Unfortunately there was an incident in Monday's Man City - Burnley match with a plane trailing the banner "White Lives Matter Burnley."  Burnley and EPL officials were quick to respond with statements.  Though police have said no criminal act was committed, Burnley officials believe they have identified the fans involved and they will be receiving lifetime bans from the club.  Ben "Eff" Mee solidified his position as a BFS favorite with his post-game comments:

 “I’m ashamed and embarrassed that a small number of our fans have decided to put that around the stadium. There are a group of lads that are in there embarrassed to see that. It’s missed the whole point of what we’re trying to achieve and these people need to come into the 21st century and educate themselves as a lot of us do.  It doesn’t represent what we’re about, what the club is about, what the players are about and what the majority of the fans are about. It’s a small minority of people and I’m really upset that it happened. ”

Wid or Wid-out?

Like a Philly native specifying whether his cheesesteak should include onions, TV viewers must decide how they want to watch a match - wid natural or enhanced sound.  With natural all you hear is what's actually in the stadium; enhanced sound gets you simulated crowd noise.  The default choice for TV viewers is enhanced and you have to do some work to get natural.  If you're streaming, the choice is usually there right at the start.  Most of my viewing has been live on TV and I'm too lazy to do the work to go natural.  Also, I don't find it offensive.  Sometimes I think they're getting better about matching the sounds to the action but it's quite spotty.

I did check out some replays with natural sound and was surprised that no crowd noise didn't bother me either.  Also surprised that there is a good spike in the noise when a goal is scored.  You could hear an excellent reaction from those in attendance when Brighton tallied in stoppage time to upset Arsenal.

So, if I have an easy choice at the start, I'll probably go natural but the difference isn't enough for me to do any work if the default option is enhanced.


It Pays to Increase Your Word Power

occlusion

1.

n

the act of blocking

Use in a sentence:

“The seven cameras located in the stands around the goal area were significantly occluded by the goalkeeper, defender and goalpost. This level of occlusion has never been seen before in over 9,000 matches that the Hawk-Eye Goal Line Technology system has been in operation.

No goal for SHU

Within 45 minutes of the Project Restart restart, we had a controversy.  Late in the first half of the Aston Villa - Sheffield United match, a Blades delivery into the box had appeared to most viewers to have completely crossed the goal line.  But Michael Oliver kept pointing to his watch saying the goal-line technology had not signaled for a goal.  Only later was it clear that the GLT didn't actually know what happened here.  Should the VAR have intervened?  Maybe, but as I recall there was a stoppage of play within about minute after the incident, which didn't really allow that much time for the VAR to consider the possibility that GLT hadn't seen this one, especially given that it hadn't happened before.  You can see the incident here.

Fortunately, there were no serious consequences to the incident.  I kid.  The match ended 0-0 so it was a critical point for Aston Villa in their scrap to stay up, which couldn't have pleased other relegation rivals.  At the same time, Sheffield United dropped two points, which damaged their Champions League hopes, possibly to the delight of other clubs like Man United, Wolves, Spurs, etc.  Metrics at 538 say Villa outplayed Sheffield here so both clubs might be lucky to have come away with a draw.  Let's see if this matters at the end of the season.


Life Is Better 11 v 10

In their return to action Sunday, Newcastle were pretty much toe-to-toe with Sheffield United.  A 0-0 draw looked both likely and fair.  Then the Blades John Egan got a second yellow at 50 minutes.  The Magpies were patient but eventually put up three goals in what ended up as a rare romp for them.  Any Newcastle goal could qualify as a YouTubeableMoment given their infrequency but check out Matt Ritchie's blast that made things 2-0; we'll make it this week's YouTubeableMoment - Game Action Division.  Also good to see Joe L Linton get a late goal to complete the scoring; that has to be a boost to his confidence.

With those three points, 538 now has Newcastle with a less than 1% chance of relegation.  At 38 points, with many clubs behind them in the table, even I'm getting optimistic that they'll be staying up.


Wither the Gunners?

Perhaps no club rues the shutdown more than Arsenal.  They had 15 points from seven matches in 2020.  After a poor start to the season, they had some momentum, maybe enough to lift them into contention for a Champions League spot if Man City were banned.  So in the first match back, the aforementioned Man City took the Gunners rather easily with a 3-0 win.  Meh, not many beat City at home anyway.  But the 1-2 loss to Brighton is going to leave a mark.  First, they weren't that great to begin with against the relegation-threatened Seagulls.  Looking at 538, neither team really stood out.  But then to give up the goal in stoppage time, ouch.  Nice shot from Maupay in the 95th minute.  Arsenal are now 9th in the table, closer to Newcastle than a Champions League spot.  Sure, they are just six behind Man United but there's a raft of teams in front of them as well.  Maybe the 2-0 win over Southampton on Thursday will get them back on track.


In Praise of Adama Traore

Not to get Dennis angry, since he (Traore, not Dennis) used to play for Aston Villa, but I love watching him play (Traore, not Dennis, though I do enjoy watching Dennis play too).  He came into a 0-0 draw at West Ham at 64 minutes and 20 minutes later the Wolves were up 2-0 and Traore had a hand in both goals.  He's like a pitcher who used to only have a 95 MPH fastball and nothing else.  Traore operated at one speed - super fast  - but you figured out how to deal with it.  Now he has a change up, curve-ball and maybe something else.  He varies his pace, he can cross the ball and he makes good decisions about dribbling and passing.  Traore was almost as good in a starting role against Bournemouth.  He kept pouring crosses into the box until one of them was converted into a goal.  At WhoScored.com, Traore is the second highest rated player with a 7.60 average rating, behind only Kevin deBruyne's 7.88.  Sorry, Dennis.


Virtual BFS Derby

Can't swear to it but I believe Dennis and I have watched every Newcastle - Aston Villa match (at least Premier League versions) together.  Work schedules and the pandemic put that to the test.  So we each set up multiple monitors, set up a Skype call, simonized our starts to the NBC Gold replay and took in the action together, complete with all the usual snide remarks.  Truthfully, Villa had more opportunities but the 1-1 draw seemed fair in the end.  The problem for Villa is that they really needed all three points.


The Title Chase (Is Over) - Congrats Liverpool

Liverpool managed only a 0-0 draw in what might have been the most lackluster Merseyside Derby in years.  The 45 point difference in the table was a major problem but this was one match that probably really suffered from the empty stadium.  Man City's trouncing of Burnley meant that the magic number only dropped to five points and hoisting the trophy would have to wait until midweek.  Liverpool did its job on Wednesday with an easy pasting of Crystal Palace.  That left City needing a win at Stamford Bridge on Thursday to force a showdown next week.  But it was not to be, as Chelsea came away with a deserved 2-1 win that featured a nifty goal from American Pusilic.  And thus a thirty-year title drought is ended for Liverpool.  When they last won in 1989-1990, the first division included such names as Wimbledon, Millwall, Coventry City, Luton Town, and Charlton Athletic.  You can look it up.


The Race for Fourth Fifth Sixth

As we know, Champions League berths usually go to the top four finishers in the EPL.  But this year of course is different.  First, we are still waiting on the results of Man City's appeal of a two-year ban from participation in Champions League.  Should the ban be upheld, fifth place will be good enough this year.  But wait, there's more.  The winner of the Europa League also gets a berth.  Right now, both Man United and Wolves are still alive in that competition.  They also happen to be the most likely to finish fifth in the EPL.  So, it is possible that sixth place might be good enough to qualify.

Man United seem intent on not letting it get to that point.  After good results against key competitors for the berth, they look most likely to claim a spot.  The 1-1 draw with Tottenham looked about right to me and the impressive 3-0 (Martial hat trick) win over Sheffield United could be aptly described as separating the wheat from the chaff.  Two wins for the Wolves kept them right in the mix.  And Spurs got the draw with Man United and an unspectacular 2-0 win over West Ham to offer at least some hope of a challenge.  Biggest talking point in that match was Harry Kane finally finding the net, ending a long drought related to performance, injury and pandemic.

I know there's probably a lot more that happened but that's all I've got.


Taking It Easy

Thanks to the FA Cup quarters, match week 32 will play out leisurely over the course of Saturday to Thursday.

Thursday has an important fixture with Sheffield United - Spurs at 1 pm; a Tottenham win might spell the end of Sheffield's Champions League hopes.  The other Thursday matchup, Man City - Liverpool just doesn't have the same heft anymore after the Reds secured the top spot on Thursday.

Other Champions League contenders have eminently winnable road matches as Man United travel to face Brighton (Tuesday 3:15), Wolves are at Aston Villa (Saturday 7:30) and Chelsea square off against West Ham (Wednesday 3:15).

Villa are up against it versus Wolves so will be looking for help elsewhere.  Newcastle take on Bournemouth (Wednesday 1 pm) and Southampton are at Watford (Sunday 11:30).

Sort of good news on FA Cup viewing.  ESPN has Norwich - Man United at 12:30 pm on Saturday and Sheffield United - Arsenal at 8 am on Sunday.  You'll need ESPN+ for Leicester - Chelsea at 11 am on Sunday and Newcastle -Man City at 1:30 on Sunday.  If I read the FA website correctly, matches will be at the site of the first team listed for each match.

MLS announced stuff related to their restart tournament but we'll deal with that later.

Welcome Back!

Empty Stadiums, Crowded Dens?

Looks like the EPL restart is real.  Two matches on Wednesday June 17, then Matchweeks 30 to 39 packed in tightly ending on July 26.  That's 92 games in 40 days.  I will probably have to set ground rules for myself so I don't try to watch too many and burn out.  Something like only watch games involving Newcastle or with Champions League or relegation implications.  Might still be too many.

All matches look to be set for regular home venues with no neutral sites.  No fans either.  Weekend fixtures are spread out over Friday to Monday with no overlap of matches; weekday fixtures will cover Tuesday to Thursday but there will be some overlap.  Still, a boatload of viewing opportunities.  Full schedule is here. Roughly it breaks down like this:

Match week 30 - 6/19-22
Match week 31 - 6/23-25
Match week 32 - 6/27-7/2
Match week 33 - 7/4
Match week 34 - 7/8
Match week 35 - 7/11
Match week 36 - 7/15
Match week 37 - 7/18
Match week 38 - 7/26

I fully expect that Match weeks 33-38 will actually be spread out around the listed date as opposed to all games on the same day.  Also, a temporary rule change will allow for 20 on the named roster and five subs allowed per match.


Now, Where Were We?

So Liverpool is the presumptive champion, needing just six points (or Man City dropping six points) to claim the title.  Man City, Leicester City and Chelsea hold the next three spots.  But as we will discuss below, Man City's participation in the Champions League is in doubt.  So that brings 5th and 6th place Man United and Wolves (and maybe even Sheffield United) into the picture.  When we last left Tottenham and Arsenal, the former did not resemble a Champions League side while the latter were on a roll but maybe started from too far back.

The southern half of the table is really crowded.  Norwich may be done but just four points separate 15-19th and two points separate 15th-18th.   In descending order that group includes Brighton, West Ham, Watford, Bournemouth and Aston Villa.

We happily note the absence of Newcastle in that list.  In 13th with 35 points, their odds of going down are pretty slim at this point.  The remaining fixtures don't offer lots of easy points but fortunately they don't need many and there are enough teams below them they should be safe.

The current table can be found here.


FA Cup Too?

I had completely forgotten that Newcastle had reached the quarterfinals after a 3-2 win over West Brom.  Their prize is a date with Man City on June 28.  The other fixtures are Norwich - Man United, Sheffield United - Arsenal, and Leicester - Chelsea.  That first one might not be too good but, well, as somebody said, two out of three ain't bad.  These matches explain why Matchweek 32 has to be spread over six days.  Semi-finals are July 18 with the final on August 1.


Champions League Too?

That is not clear at this point.  The UEFA Champions League Executive Committee meets on June 17th.  Four sides had already made it to the quarter finals when play was suspended - Atletico Madrid, Atalanta, RB Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain.  Four matches remain, with Man City -Real Madrid, Juventus - Lyon, Bayern - Chelsea and Barcelona - Napoli still to go.


The Cover-up Is Always Worse Than the Crime, Part MMCXVIII

When we last spoke, Man City had been assessed a two-year Champions League ban from UEFA.  A good explanation of the case can be found here.  City's appeal was heard last week.  But they have two problems.  Besides the initial claim of violating the financial fair play regulations, City is alleged not to have cooperated with the investigation.  Oops.  As the article notes, the implications of this decision are enormous, both internally for Man City and for the other clubs chasing Champions League berths.


A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

What the Summer of 2020 will look like?
Allsport/Getty Images

As the EPL prepares to open to empty stadiums, BFS Travel Consultant Jeff K sends along this article from the NYT about a mural Arsenal used in 1992 for the final training session at old Highbury.  Certainly, this is one way to give the venues a bit more of a "lived in" look in the age of social distancing.  But read further and you find a second current events issue here. From the article:

The day before the start of the season, Arsenal striker Kevin Campbell was warming up with his friend and teammate Ian Wright. “He turned to me and asked if I noticed anything about the mural,” Wright told The New York Times last week. “I looked and looked and eventually said no. So he said, ‘There’s no black faces.’”

The artists were adamant that it was not deliberate and quickly agreed to modify the painting.  A benign enough incident on one hand but an excellent example of how what's obvious to some just doesn't register with others until it's pointed out.


MLS Too?

Yes but details are missing.  As a Union season ticket holder we got this message on Wednesday:

Today, Major League Soccer announced a plan for all 26 teams to return to play in Orlando in a tournament beginning July 8.  The tournament will consist of a total of 54 matches, including 39 in group stage and 15 in knockout rounds.   Group stage matches will count in the MLS regular season standings and the tournament winner will earn a spot in the 2021 Scotiabank Concacaf Champions League.  

This is tremendously exciting and our goal is still to play as many matches as possible at Subaru Park in 2020. Upon completion of the MLS is Back Tournament, MLS plans to continue its regular season with a revised schedule in home markets, followed by the Audi MLS Cup Playoffs and the 25th MLS Cup. The schedule will be developed so teams face only opponents from within their own conferences. The final number of matches and the schedule for the remainder of the 2020 MLS regular season will be announced in the coming weeks. As we did beginning in May and continuing until further notice, we are suspending all further season ticket membership payments. 

Details on the format and group draws for tournament can be had here.  No fans will be attending those games.  No specifics are out yet on the regular season.  Sure sounds like it will be in empty stadiums though I haven't seen that definitively stated.  I thought I had pitched the idea here a few months ago about a cut-down schedule involving just in-conference play but apparently it didn't get past the editors and into the blog.


Check Your DVRs

Clean out old recordings, etc. as there will be 22 matches in 9 days.  Things get rolling Wednesday with Aston Villa hosting Sheffield United.  This is a critical match for both sides as we really can't take it for granted that the rest of the season will come off as planned.  For Villa, a win would take them clear of the bottom three while three points for the Blades would move them into fifth, which might be good enough for CL this year.  At 3:15 we can take in Man City versus Arsenal.  City's fate is more in the hands of UEFA appeals board but Arsenal could use the boost.  I guess the fact that the Gunners haven't lost in 2020 has little meaning when they haven't played in over three months.  Both matches are NBCSN.

The weekend contests are spread over Friday to Monday.  All on either NBC or NBCSN with the exception of Bournemouth - Crystal Palace, which will be on NBC Gold.  I'd say Friday's 3:15 match between Tottenham and Man United (NBCSN) is worth checking out; a Spurs loss would leave them seven points behind United - not insurmountable, except the way they were playing before the break, it is.

Saturday's menu isn't going to blow you away except for the fact that we haven't had anything to watch for so long.  You can watch them all live if you want but not sure I'm recommending that.  Brighton - Arsenal at 10 am (NBCSN) might be best choice although 538 is saying Watford - Leicester at 7:30 am (NBCSN) is basically a toss-up - really?  The "feature match" at 12:30 on NBC is West Ham - Wolves.

Sunday will find me taking in Newcastle - Sheffield United at 9 am at an empty St. James' Park (NBCSN); I guess the good news is at least the home crowd won't be booing.  Dennis will endure Villa hosting Chelsea at 11:15 on NBCSN.  The day concludes with a Merseyside Derby at Goodison Park at 2 pm on NBC.  The match week concludes on Monday with Man City hosting Burnley at 3 pm on NBCSN.

No rest for the weary as things continue on Tuesday with Matchweek 31.  This is also not necessarily the finest set of fixtures.  As of this writing, the TV schedule is not available.  We do note with interest the BFS Derby on 1 pm on Wednesday at St. James' Park. The reverse fixture back in November was a disaster for the Magpies. At the time, Aston Villa looked like they belonged in the Premiership while Newcastle clearly were Championship Division material.  An amazing reversal of fortunes.  Clearly the match is way more critical for the Villans.

Matches of interest to BFS readers include Spurs hosting West Ham (Tuesday 3:15) and Man United taking on Sheffield United (Wednesday 1pm).  At 538 they see comfortable wins for the home sides.  On Thursday I'm inclined to check out Southampton - Arsenal (1pm) as 538 sees this as a close one and real test as to whether the Gunners are really going to contend for a CL position.  That's followed by Chelsea - Man City; even at Stamford Bridge the Blues are underdogs but we're still hoping for a good match.

Totally curious as to how everybody experiences the matches without crowds.  My guess is that it will be incredibly weird to start but we'll get used to it.  Has to be better than Korean baseball.

Finally Something Real To Report

I gave up on tracking all the rumors and various stories and resolved to wait until there was some real news. At last, we have some.  But, as it turns out, maybe not a lot.

Let's start with the EPL Statement on restart.  Games would start on 6/17 with Aston Villa-Sheffield United and Man City  - Arsenal.  That would bring everybody to 29 matches.  Full slates would start on 6/20.  The general schedule for the weekends would be one on Friday, four each on Saturday and Sunday and one on Monday - all sequential with no overlapping start times.  The midweek approach would be games on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  This leaves us with the tantalizing (daunting?) possibility that there will be an EPL match every day of the week until the season concludes.

The statement says matches will be behind closed doors.  It does not address venues so we don't know yet if these will be at neutral sites.  Also note, this whole thing is contingent on meeting "all safety requirements." 

From there we are left with unconfirmed reports about various aspects.  Perhaps the most important is what happens if this doesn't happen.  Rory Smith of the NYT says:

If it cannot return, the season will be determined on a points-per-game basis (effectively freezing the table as it stands, with one or two exceptions). It will name a champion. It will relegate its three worst teams. At last, the idea of “null and void” is off the table.

I couldn't find confirmation of that.  The points per game approach would move change a few spots (Wolves and Sheffield United switch 6th and 7th while Spurs and Arsenal flip flop 8th and 9th).  That would mean the St. Totteringham's Day will fall on whatever day they make these decisions.  But I digress.

NBC suggests that the league is trying to keep the matches at their home venues but I also read that some hybrid approach may be necessary based on safety and security concerns. 

So, after months of endless speculation we did get some hard news.  Except it turns out to be limited and maybe not so hard. 


Effing Newcastle

Speaking of a lack of hard facts...

The proposed sale of Newcastle to the "Saudi-backed consortium" is still under review.  There are reports that the FA has threatened legal action against Saudi Arabia's state-owned sports TV station (hilariously called beoutQ) for illegal broadcasts of FA Cup matches.  There has also been opposition to Saudi Arabia based on its abysmal human rights track record.  But as of now, the deal has not been approved or denied.  So, yeah, it's pretty much where it was a month ago.


Filling the Time

I am not a TV critic, nor do I play one on TV.  Still, I will give a hearty thumbs up to the Netflix series The English Game.  Laura really liked it too.  Very much reminded me of Chariots of Fire.  And though it is theoretically about football, I'll suggest that the "game" is metaphor for other topics like social class, marriage, familial relations. 

And Forest Green is thriving so far in League One in Football Manager with five wins and a draw through August 2020.  Fully aware that we haven't faced any the likely top four yet.  The transfer season was rough and tumble, as a top player came to me to say he wanted to play for a higher level team.  Initially I refused and not only was he upset but other players on the team expressed concern that I wouldn't let him go.  So I relented.  At least, the salary cap space helped me plug a few other holes.  Think this is a strong squad that should challenge for automatic promotion despite what the pundits are saying. 

Stay safe.  And put your #*&king mask on.

Close, But No. Qatar

Does this scream Newcastle or what?  The proposed sale of the club to a coalition that includes the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund, UK financier Amanda Staveley and a UK company Reuben Brothers is undergoing the mandatory owners' and directors' test by the Premier League.  Now Qatar's BeIN Sports is raising questions about the deal (trying to block it?), citing Saudi Arabia's involvement with with beoutQ, a pirate TV station that provides Saudi viewers with essentially a mirror of BeIN Sports feed.  That network exists because several Arab states cut off all links to Qatar because of it's alleged support for terrorist activities.  What, so now following Newcastle requires a course in geopolitics?  Apparently yes.  If you want to take the crash course, try the following links:

Countries cut ties to Qatar

BeIN seeks to block the sale

Geopolitics involved in Newcastle sale (and football more generally)

What’s black and white and fed up?
 A Newcastle fan.Lindsey Parnaby/EPA, via Shutterstock

Rory Smith at the NY Times has a great post today about the politics of ownership and where it puts the fans.  I thought I had the link but do not so I will excerpt a few key paragraphs:

It has, of course, attracted no shortage of controversy: Amnesty International, which has labeled Saudi Arabia the “kingdom of cruelty,” has written to the Premier League warning that allowing the takeover to proceed risked making the league a “patsy of those who want to use the glamour and prestige of Premier League football to cover up actions that are deeply immoral.”

The Premier League responded, moderately brusquely, to that assertion. It will be far harder to shake off a complaint from BeIN, the broadcaster based in Qatar that serves as the Premier League’s partner in the Gulf, that Saudi Arabia should not be permitted to invest in a league that it has spent a considerable amount of time undermining through a pirate broadcasting network.

That, you would have thought, would be enough if not to give the Premier League pause, then certainly to dampen the desire of Newcastle’s fans to see the deal get through. When you are a child, you dream of your team scoring goals and winning trophies and achieving greatness. You do not dream of it being drawn against its will and for unidentified purposes into a simmering geopolitical conflict between sovereign states.

It is hard to gauge proportions precisely, but it is fair to say at least a portion of Newcastle’s fan base has few, if any, qualms whatsoever. There are myriad reasons for that, before we get to the futile whataboutery that tends to clog social media on subjects like this.

Prime among them is an overwhelming, long held and understandable desire to get rid of Newcastle’s current owner, the tracksuit tycoon Mike Ashley, who has shown precious little regard for the history of the club and the hopes of its fans.

Then there is — again, understandable — the belief that it is not for fans to stand up and protest at Saudi investment in soccer when the British government does deals with the country, when Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia’s ally in the war in Yemen, owns Manchester City. If the Premier League is happy enough for Mohammed bin Salman to come and join the party, why should there be a higher moral burden on Newcastle fans than there is on these institutions?

Fair questions throughout.  As if we don't have enough issues to think about.


FIFA Doing Its Part to Fight COVID-19 in US

In case you missed it, Trump gave a nice shout out to FIFA at a recent press briefing for its support in getting vital supplies to health care providers.  Heckuva job guys.


What's In Your Netflix?

Or Amazon Prime as the case may be.  BFS Fitness Correspondent Jeff H sends a positive review of "The English Game," a six-episode series on the invention of the game and its rise to popularity.  BFS Scandinavian Correspondent Philip S alerts us to the Amazon Prime series "Heimebane" (Home Ground to those not fluent in Norwegian), a fictional story about the first woman promoted to manage a Norwegian premier league side.  That show has 18 episodes over two seasons.  Apparently she implements a 5-3-1-1 formation (talk about parking the bus) and gets significant resistance.  Sorry for the spoiler there Michael B. 


Unfinished Business

Forgot to give a proper hat tip to Don P for last week's story about Kyle Walker.  This does give me the chance to briefly cite the obscure history that Don was the goalkeeper on the first Dickinson NCAA soccer team.  It's so obscure you may not be able to find it in the records. 


Status Quo

Didn't see anything to add to last week's post about the re-opening of the various leagues.  There does seem to be the growing possibility that any continuation of the seasons will be without spectators.  As Jeff H noted last week, that will really suck, until it doesn't.


Stay safe and don't drink the Lysol...

Silver Linings Still Count

An expected consequence of the coronavirus is that it looks like Mike Ashley will finally sell Newcastle.  Dennis says it's still a silver lining even if the virus was the reason.  Amanda Staveley is back, this time fronting for a Saudi investment group.  Stories abound in the English press and even the Wall Street Journal.  This one provides some insight into why it's happening now.  The money quote from University of Liverpool football finance expert Kieran Maguire (where do I apply for that job?):

“I think he’s sold partly due to the fact that he would probably prefer to focus on his other businesses at present because they do need a lot of support at the moment and the cash from the Newcastle sale would help in that regard.”

We've been down this road before but things do seem promising.  If completed, the deal would make Newcastle one of football's richest clubs. 

What could this mean for the club?  Staff at The Chronicle used Football Manager to simulate the next three seasons Tyneside.  Results are presented here.  Note that the game predicts Steven Gerrard takes over for Steve Bruce.  The Magpies are forecast to finish 9th, 8th and 11th in the next three seasons.  The good news is they stay out of relegation battles and start to spend money on players.  The bad news is that they still don't crack the top six.  Overcoming the damage done by Ashley will take some time.


Whither (Wither?) the Season

Still no good answer on how, or even if, the EPL will proceed with the 20/21.  I've heard everything from the season is done to they'll try to play just the two games that were supposed to have been played before the season was halted to they'll play out the season at Wembley with four games at a time but no crowds.  This article from ESPN lays out the discussion nicely.  A big sticking point is that extending this season later into the calendar could create ripple effects for the 2020-21 season.

Dennis notes that if they do the two game scenario, the Aston Villa - Sheffield United contest could be this year's most lucrative match because a Villa win would see them avoid relegation.  Given the Blades performance this year, Villa might do better with a coin flip.

Similarly, the MLS is considering multiple options, several of which are mentioned here.  They have more flexibility than the EPL, since they could run the season, with creative venue selection, until December.


Dubious Hat Trick for Kyle Walker

Kyle Walker has made Gareth Southgate's job easier.  By 1) hosting a sex party, 2) in violation of coronavirus lockdown directives, 3) after posting on social media the importance of observing social distancing guidelines, Walker got himself booted from the English national team.  The details are here, probably the first time I've used the NY Post as a source.  Southgate was probably leaning towards Trent Alexander-Arnold anyway but this simplified matters for the English manager.


Forest Green Promoted

We clinched automatic promotion, then the league title with six matches to go.  The club was always favored to do well even before my arrival so we clearly started with a solid core.  My biggest contribution was probably three loan deals for two strikers and an attacking midfielder. 

As we prepare for next season in League One, I am getting an education in the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules.  Since they weren't implemented until 2015, I did not have to deal with these rules while playing FM 2010.  Basically, if your wage bill is deemed too high, you can get hit with a transfer embargo.  I'm not involved in too many transfers so that's not a big problem.  But, it also creates problems in getting players on loan if you have to pay a portion of their salary.  And that's my main route right now for improving the squad.  To complicate matters, players under 21 who are "home grown" are exempt from the FFP calculation so you have to take this into account as well.  The game continues to provide a marvelous education of the workings of English football.


Stay safe but don't forget to order take out, have beer delivered to your door and tip excessively.

No Business As Usual

So with all the sh...stuff going on, have to say things here at BFS are about as good as they could be.  Biggest outrage this week was one day we got a Daily News instead of an Inquirer.

In Football Manager, Forest Green continues towards promotion to League One for the 2020-21 season.  Spending most of my time looking at players to improve the roster either through transfers or loans.  The transfer possibilities usually have one of two answers - 1) I'm not interested in playing for your team or 2) I want a salary beyond what your board will allow.  Loan inquiries frequently are answered one of three ways - 1) we prefer that the loanee play with higher quality players 2) we want you to pay a higher percentage of the loanee's salary than you can afford or 3) we're fine with the loan but the player doesn't want to play for you.  So, yeah, that's been a slow process.  Cross 'em off and go to the next on the list until I find one willing to play for me at a price I can afford.


In the Real World

Developments in England are minimal.  According to this Joint Statement from the relevant parties, they'll meet again in 48 hours to discuss.  In the US, we hear that the MLS still has plans for a full 34 game season that would run into December.  This would likely involve many weeks with two games but doesn't sound implausible - if the start date is soon enough.  I offer an alternative if time is short.  Cut the season to 24 games by simply playing home and away against teams in your own conference.  Of the games already played, only use intra-conference matches.  This would result in an even strength of schedule.  Too logical, right?

Stay safe.