Friday, April 17, 2020

Silver Linings Still Count

An expected consequence of the coronavirus is that it looks like Mike Ashley will finally sell Newcastle.  Dennis says it's still a silver lining even if the virus was the reason.  Amanda Staveley is back, this time fronting for a Saudi investment group.  Stories abound in the English press and even the Wall Street Journal.  This one provides some insight into why it's happening now.  The money quote from University of Liverpool football finance expert Kieran Maguire (where do I apply for that job?):
“I think he’s sold partly due to the fact that he would probably prefer to focus on his other businesses at present because they do need a lot of support at the moment and the cash from the Newcastle sale would help in that regard.”
We've been down this road before but things do seem promising.  If completed, the deal would make Newcastle one of football's richest clubs. 

What could this mean for the club?  Staff at The Chronicle used Football Manager to simulate the next three seasons Tyneside.  Results are presented here.  Note that the game predicts Steven Gerrard takes over for Steve Bruce.  The Magpies are forecast to finish 9th, 8th and 11th in the next three seasons.  The good news is they stay out of relegation battles and start to spend money on players.  The bad news is that they still don't crack the top six.  Overcoming the damage done by Ashley will take some time.


Whither (Wither?) the Season

Still no good answer on how, or even if, the EPL will proceed with the 20/21.  I've heard everything from the season is done to they'll try to play just the two games that were supposed to have been played before the season was halted to they'll play out the season at Wembley with four games at a time but no crowds.  This article from ESPN lays out the discussion nicely.  A big sticking point is that extending this season later into the calendar could create ripple effects for the 2020-21 season.

Dennis notes that if they do the two game scenario, the Aston Villa - Sheffield United contest could be this year's most lucrative match because a Villa win would see them avoid relegation.  Given the Blades performance this year, Villa might do better with a coin flip.

Similarly, the MLS is considering multiple options, several of which are mentioned here.  They have more flexibility than the EPL, since they could run the season, with creative venue selection, until December.


Dubious Hat Trick for Kyle Walker

Kyle Walker has made Gareth Southgate's job easier.  By 1) hosting a sex party, 2) in violation of coronavirus lockdown directives, 3) after posting on social media the importance of observing social distancing guidelines, Walker got himself booted from the English national team.  The details are here, probably the first time I've used the NY Post as a source.  Southgate was probably leaning towards Trent Alexander-Arnold anyway but this simplified matters for the English manager.


Forest Green Promoted

We clinched automatic promotion, then the league title with six matches to go.  The club was always favored to do well even before my arrival so we clearly started with a solid core.  My biggest contribution was probably three loan deals for two strikers and an attacking midfielder. 

As we prepare for next season in League One, I am getting an education in the Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules.  Since they weren't implemented until 2015, I did not have to deal with these rules while playing FM 2010.  Basically, if your wage bill is deemed too high, you can get hit with a transfer embargo.  I'm not involved in too many transfers so that's not a big problem.  But, it also creates problems in getting players on loan if you have to pay a portion of their salary.  And that's my main route right now for improving the squad.  To complicate matters, players under 21 who are "home grown" are exempt from the FFP calculation so you have to take this into account as well.  The game continues to provide a marvelous education of the workings of English football.


Stay safe but don't forget to order take out, have beer delivered to your door and tip excessively.


1 comment:

  1. it's hard to imagine fans in the stands for any matches in the stands. paraphrasing something I read this morning- tens of thousands of strangers in close quarters, packing trains, tailgating,etc, etc is EXACTLY the worst sort of behavior in regard to virus suppression. The Rory Smith column from today had pretty good perspective too, I thought: "Football Without Fans Is Nothing. Until It’s Everything" Most people who experience the game do so from their TV. still those closed stadium games without crowd noise and visuals are pretty creepy.

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